GBP/USD Looks Set To Extend Bounce From SupportGBP/USD looks set to extend its bounce on the daily chart, having found support at the monthly S1 pivot and 200-day EMA. The daily RSI (2) reached a heavily oversold level on Thursday ahead
of the bullish inside day at support.
A bull flag is also forming on the 4-hour chart. Given the strength of the rebound from support, the bias is for a break above the weekly pivot point and move to at least the October VPOC around 1.3440. Also note the weekly R1 pivot and monthly pivot just below 1.3500 just makes a viable target zone for bulls over the near term.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.
Candlestick Analysis
GOLD (XAU/USD): New Target $4200; Here's Why!It appears that 📈GOLD price has completed a corrective movement that was initiated earlier today.
We see a confirmed bullish breakout above the neckline of a double bottom pattern on an hourly timeframe.
That happened following a test of strong intraday support, indicating significant upward pressure.
My target is set at 4200.
W pattern is established and the bullish pattern remain unchangeI have said before that gold is in a fluctuating upward state whether viewed from the weekly or daily charts, and there is no reversal signal. I mentioned in my previous post that from the hourly chart, gold has the prototype of a W shape, and the neckline is at 4145. In the evening of the US session, gold successfully broke through the neckline and touched around 4155. Although the bullish momentum of gold has stagnated slightly after a slow rise, I am still optimistic that gold will reach 4160-4165. If it falls back to around 4145-4135 again, we can still consider trying to go long on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
SGDCAD: Price Holds Above Daily HTLKey Observations
Daily Timeframe:
Price tested this daily HTL as resistance a few times. The last break was very strong.
After price reverted below this daily HTL, it did not make a new lower low. Instead, it traded above this level rather quickly.
Overall, this gives me an indication that selling pressure is weakening.
H1 Timeframe:
Price crossed below EMA20, but this was shortlived
As price exits the EMA band, this is an indication that momentum might pick up
Realistically, I might close this trade and re-open in order to bypass the the 5PM rollover spike in spreads
USDCAD LONG Market structure bullish o HTFs 3
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.39500
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels
Entry 110%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Binge with BROSHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we’re looking at Dutch Bros (BROS).
BROS has a soft spot in my heart, as I used to live near Grants Pass OR where they started.
Even without my bias, There’s a lot happening here that points to bullish momentum.
1) It’s important to note that the yellow box is what I call algorithmic suppression — this isn’t real selling but instead this is fabricated selling . This is usually done by short sellers and hedge funds looking to slow down the momentum of a stock. I talk about the "why" on my channel.
2) The Real seller has been challenged and if they are satisfied by the end of the week (above $71) this would seal the deal.
3) New Aggressors have taken a strong position, and they will look to defend this area as the weeks go on.
For these reasons I have 2 scenarios to help you get Long as well as some Value prices for your long term.
Green Scenario
If buyers continue to defend the New Aggressor zone, BROS should make another push back up into the Light Seller area around 79. This should be a partial TP.
A close into or above that seller zone would continue the marching of these bulls.
Red Scenario
We do not know where exactly the top of this New aggressor is yet, but It's strongest case scenario would be 68.80 (This is the most unlikely)
If there is a retrace, the top of Strong Demand is likely where strong buyers will step in. Out of scenarios, I feel better about going ofr the more conservative approach (but who doesn't like a better deal?)
Entry 62.50
Stop 56
TP 1 80
TP 2 Hold for 5+ years - Long Term.
Long Term
If you’re looking to build exposure on BROS, here’s how I’d map the levels based on conviction:
Aggressive: Current demand (72)
Value: Strong Demand (56-62)
Extreme Value: (44-46)
Overall, this looks very bullish for BROS. With algorithmic suppression cleared, and a real seller already taken out of the market (we will know end of week), You may strike gold in the long term.
Happy Trading,
@thecafetrader
Tesla's New Range. Hello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we are revisiting Tesla (TSLA).
Last article we identified the Key seller before this big extension. Today I have identified the last key seller, and how you can capitalize.
Price has now entered into the Light Supply Zone , a place where sellers will try to slow things down.
It is likely that you will want to play TSLA at the Extremes. Strong Supply , and Strong Demand levels are going to give you the best chance at a stronger reaction. So if you are playing the short term, These two plays marked on the chart will be your best bet.
If the Strong Buyers hold at around 417, This will put a lot of pressure on that last strong seller at 461. A push through them should see you ATH's (not without a strong reaction from the Strong Supply first).
Missed out on the move and want to add TSLA to your long term?
Long Term
These Prices should match your conviction on TSLA:
Aggressive : 409 - 419.50 (Top of Demand, even better if you get into those strong buyers)
Value : 333-344
Extreme Value : 288-294 or the Conservative Trendline.
Expect big things from TSLA in the coming years. I would not be surprised to see TSLA reach over 1,000 again.
Happy Trading,
@thecafetrader
CADJPY: Another Pullback Trade 🇨🇦🇯🇵
CADJPY is going to pullback from the underlined intraday support.
A bullish breakout of a neckline of a double bottom pattern is my
confirmation signal.
Goal - 108.39
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EURUSD: Time to Recover?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Looks like EURUSD finally went oversold.
A double bottom pattern and a breakout of its neckline with a bullish imbalance
indicate a strong buying interest.
I think that the price will bounce at least to 1.579 level.
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Boeing May Be StallingBoeing rallied sharply in the spring and early summer. But now some traders may think it’s stalling.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $225.50 level, a weekly low from September 5. BA broke under that level the following week and has stayed there since. It tried to rebound last Wednesday and was rejected. Has old support become new resistance?
Second, the aerospace giant reported strong quarterly results on July 29. Buyers drove prices higher, but sellers turned the bullish open into a bearish engulfing day. That large outside candle is a potentially bearish reversal pattern.
Third, July’s high occurred near a gap from January 8, 2024. Old resistance may have been confirmed.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Last week’s high also occurred at the falling 50-day simple moving average. Those patterns may reflect new downtrends in the short- and intermediate-term.
Finally, BA is an active underlier in the options market. (It averages about 135,000 contracts per session, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Bearish Outlook Explained
US100 stopped growing after a test of the underlined intraday horizontal supply zone.
A formation of a bearish engulfing candle after its test suggests a strong
bearish pressure from that.
I think that the market will drop at least to 24030 level.
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From 'pullbacks' to a 'correction' (S&P 500)Setup
Still Bullish. Be patient for entry near end of the corrective move lower
Evidence..
-Trend is up, no top pattern
-No longer 'dips' to 50 DMA, now into a 'correction' with possible move towards 100 DMA
-Large bearish engulfing weekly candle
-The 4 month old trendline has broken.
-RSI has dropped under support - but not yet characteristic of bearish trend by going oversold
-Price has landed at a demand zone under 6500 (could rebound from here)
Signal
Looking to go long on another test of the demand zone OR
at next supports found at matching lows of 6350 then 6200
USD/JPY: Bearish Bias Remains Despite 1-Hour Triangle Break RiskA small symmetrical triangle has formed on the 1-hour chart, suggesting an upside break could be pending. However, with the elongated bearish engulfing candle that appeared on Friday after an extended move, I suspect any rally from here may be limited.
Bears could look to fade into moves towards the 153 handle and maintain a bearish bias while prices remain beneath Friday’s high. The bias is for an eventual move down to the March high (151.30), near the weekly pivot point (151.14). A break beneath the 150.32 high would imply a deeper retracement for USD/JPY and bring the 150.00 handle and 150.33 high-volume node into focus.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
EURNZD – Possible Reversal / Buy SetupPrice is testing the 2.0150–2.0180 support zone, which acted as a strong base in the last impulse.
Decreasing volume suggests possible accumulation.
A move back toward 2.0250–2.0300 would align with the previous high and volume node.
🎯 Trade Setup
Buy Entry: 2.0180
Stop Loss: Below 2.0150
Take Profit: 2.0250 – 2.0300
📈 A clean setup if buyers defend this zone — watch for confirmation before entering.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
GBPUSD: Testing Daily HTLKey Observations
Daily Timeframe
EMA20 crosses below EMA60 > signals a weak downtrend
Overall, this pair is topping out given the lower high formed
H1 Timeframe
Price fails to hold above the EMA band as it quickly cross below it
Very likely momentum to the downside will pick up
GBPCHF SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDT.D Lower High Again — Why I’m Still Bullish on AltsQuick take: the weekly downtrend in USDT dominance is intact. We keep respecting the same descending trendline that starts at the Nov 7, 2022 peak, then tags Sep 11, 2023 → Aug 5, 2024 → Apr 7, 2025 → Oct 6, 2025. Every touch has printed a lower high. Price is still below the weekly 200 EMA (see the thick cyan line on the chart), which keeps the high-timeframe bias pointed down for USDT.D—and by extension, up for BTC/ETH/altcoins, because USDT.D typically moves inversely to the crypto market.
The part that matters to me is how liquidity spikes on CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D have behaved. On Aug 5, 2024, we swept the prior highs and then bled lower for roughly ~168 days, about ~45% down from that spike. On Apr 7, 2025, same story: a sharp markup and then a ~36% markdown after the sweep. Today we’ve done it again—another wick into the trendline, another lower high, and we’re still trading under the 200-week EMA. That combo has consistently led to multi-week declines in dominance.
Short term, after last Friday’s deleveraging and thin books, I’m not pretending to know every intraday zigzag. But on daily/weekly, the picture hasn’t changed: we cleaned the prior highs, failed at the trendline, and are sitting around the mid-4% zone with momentum fading under the EMAs. My base case is chop under the line and then a push lower toward the ~3% area (marked on the chart). If that plays out, it’s exactly the sort of backdrop that’s fueled alt rallies in the past as stablecoins rotate into risk.
What would make me reconsider? A meaningful refill of the wick and acceptance back toward ~5.5% with a weekly close above the trendline and the 200 EMA. Until I see that, I’m treating last week as a de-leveraging spike before higher for crypto broadly, not the end of the cycle. I’ll be watching the next 30 days: hold under the line and roll over, and I like the odds we slide toward 3%—which, historically, has lined up with strong legs up in BTC, ETH, and the better alts.
ETH 15M Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 33☃️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 15-Minutes timeframe .
👀 On the 15-minute timeframe for Ethereum, we can see that after an impressive 10% rally, ETH showed one of the strongest recoveries in the market compared to other major coins — managing to climb above $4,100 and form a new trading range early in the week. Currently, Ethereum is consolidating within a range between $4,200 (top) and $4,121 (bottom). A breakout from this range could create either a long or short setup. Keep in mind that following this strong bullish move, trading volume has started to decline inside this range.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, we can see that after the recent surge, ETH’s momentum is now fluctuating between 43 and 70. A breakout above or below this RSI range would likely increase volatility and accelerate Ethereum’s next move — potentially with fewer candles but stronger momentum.
🕯 The size and volume of recent candles during Ethereum’s rally have been exceptional. Major buyers and institutional players have added substantial ETH positions to their portfolios. The large, high-volume bullish candles leading up to the current range reflect Ethereum’s strong momentum. Now, while the price is oscillating inside the range with reduced volume, a clear volume expansion is expected once the range breaks.
🧠 As Ethereum remains trapped inside this trading range, a breakout will require increased volume and RSI confirmation beyond the defined thresholds. This setup gives us two potential scenarios:
↗️ Long scenario: If Ethereum breaks above $4,200, which acts as a taker-seller resistance, and RSI pushes above 70 (Overbought zone), ETH could launch another bullish leg early in the week — showing an even stronger recovery compared to the rest of the market.
📉 Short scenario: If Ethereum breaks below $4,121, which is a maker-buyer support, and RSI drops under 43 toward the Oversold zone, it could continue its downward correction. However, given ETH’s strong bullish momentum, this bearish scenario would likely require negative market fundamentals to fully play out.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 15M Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 55☃️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 15-Minutes timeframe .
👀 On the 15-minute timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that after breaking out and consolidating above the $114,351 zone, BTC began moving upward and is now trading within a 15-minute range. A breakout from this range could trigger the next move. The top of this trading range sits at $115,715 and the bottom at $114,750 — breaking and holding beyond either level could start a strong leg for Bitcoin as the new week begins.
🧮 The RSI oscillator on the 15-minute timeframe shows Bitcoin currently moving within a range capped at 64 on the top and 42 on the bottom. A breakout from this RSI range could significantly increase buying or selling momentum, adding fuel to Bitcoin’s next move.
🕯 The size, volume, and count of green candles have increased since the flash crash, and institutions like BlackRock, World Liberty, and Trump-aligned funds have been averaging solid buy positions. With rising buying volume, Bitcoin could break through its ticker-seller resistance at $115,715 and continue its bullish move following the recent dramatic flash crash.
🔍 Despite concerns like the ongoing U.S.–China economic (tariff) war, the market remains in a risk-off mode on higher timeframes. If entering trades, we aim to manage capital across multiple entries — for example, allocating only 0.25% risk per position or averaging in gradually.
🧠 Two trading scenarios are considered for Bitcoin, both offering clear opportunities for structured entries.
↗️ Long scenario (breakout above the range):
If Bitcoin breaks above $115,715 with rising buy volume and RSI crossing above 64, it could initiate another strong bullish leg toward higher resistance levels.
📉 Short scenario (breakdown below the range):
If the micro-buyer support at $114,750 — a key demand zone — breaks, Bitcoin may extend its correction downward. This move should coincide with RSI losing the 42 level and increasing sell volume. Note: in short positions, take profits quickly and maintain tight risk-to-reward control.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
EURAUD: Another Gap to Trade Today 🇪🇺🇦🇺
EURAUD formed a gap down opening.
My signal to buy will be a bullish breakout of a minor intraday horizontal resistance.
An hourly candle close above 1.78375 will confirm a violation,
a bullish continuation will be expected at least to 1.79 level then.
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