This has been a Years Long trade and Sugar is nearly there at the 88.6% target, but I do think since we spent some time testing the B point as support that it has potential for pushing all the way to the 1.13 Extension to complete a Full ABCD, so I will be opening up another bullish position on the CANE ETF from here and targeting higher levels.
WEAT is a popular ETF tracking wheat as a commodity. Because of geopolitical issues the rising price is an escalator for basic food prices from Africa to USA and globally. Sugar is a commodity that always seems to rise. Here on this daily chart, I have plotted the ratio of wheat to sugar spot prices which typically is a falling ratio. However, the downtrend...
It's a Brave New World. Fertilizer was facing a shortage going into 2022 (like most commodities, it has had a undersized amount of investment, with tech seeing most of the in flows) but after the Putin YOLO (that's my ELI5), potash is now in shortage. Using that fact as a basis for expanding my commodity thesis to include more food commodities. I picked CANE...
Sugar and Brazil Relationship: Since Brazil has been the leading producer of sugarcane in the world, the value of the Brazilian Real plays a significant role in the price of sugar futures. Weakness in the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar encourages Brazil's sugar producers to boost exports. The logic is that a lower Brazilian Real incentivizes Brazilian...
Sugar has just broken out of a falling wedge pattern which could also be bullish flag. Nothing too complex, but I marked out where any divergences have played out coupled with the RSI > 65 signalling intermediate tops. I think sugar has anywhere from 5 to 10 percent to go up before marking another intermediate top. For this trade, use the CANE ETF. I would...
Technical Analysis: - Double Bottom at 10.45 from August 2015 - Oversold on daily/weekly timeframes - Retest of 5monthSMA likely @ 11.50 Fundamental Analysis: - Look for Brazil Real bounce against USD - this will lead to less selling for $ and more domestic demand in Brazil - Higher lows since 1985 reflecting growing demand - Higher energy means more domestic...