Gold 1H – Fed Signals Fuel Liquidity Games Around 4350–4300🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (18/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold is trading inside a controlled liquidity range as markets react to fresh speculation around the Fed Chair’s stance on rate timing and inflation persistence.
Recent headlines suggest the Fed remains data-dependent despite easing inflation narratives, keeping USD flows choppy and positioning fragile. This backdrop typically favors engineered stop-hunts rather than clean trend continuation, especially around well-defined premium and discount zones.
Smart Money is likely to probe both sides of liquidity before committing to directional expansion.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H)
Current Phase: Rising structure, pausing near premium after BOS
Key Idea: Expect liquidity interaction at 4350–4353 (premium) or 4302–4300 (discount) before displacement
Structural Notes:
• Higher-timeframe BOS keeps bullish context intact
• Recent range shows distribution near highs, not confirmed reversal
• Equal highs near 4350 and sell-side liquidity resting below 4300 are exposed
Liquidity Zones & Triggers:
• 🔴 SELL SCALP 4350 – 4353 | SL 4360
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 4302 – 4300 | SL 4290
Institutional Flow Expectation:
sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion
🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones)
🔴 SELL SCALP 4350 – 4353 | SL 4360
Rules:
✔ Liquidity sweep above recent equal highs into premium
✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15
✔ Clear downside BOS with impulsive displacement
✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB
Targets:
1. 4325
2. 4310
3. 4302 – extension if momentum builds
🟢 BUY GOLD 4302 – 4300 | SL 4290
Rules:
✔ Liquidity grab below sell-side lows / rising trend support
✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand control
✔ Upside BOS with strong bullish displacement
✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest
Targets:
1. 4320
2. 4350
3. 4380 – extension if USD softens on Fed commentary
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Fed-related headlines can trigger fake breaks — wait for structure
• Avoid entries without clear MSS + BOS alignment
• Expect higher volatility during U.S. session hours
• Reduce risk near unscheduled Fed headlines or speakers
📍 Summary
Today’s gold setup revolves around Fed-driven liquidity engineering:
• A sweep above 4353 may invite a pullback toward 4302–4310
or
• A liquidity grab near 4300 could reload bullish flow toward 4350+
Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️
📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
Chart Patterns
Two Forces Cancel Each Other Out, EURUSD Tilts BearishAlthough the USD is weakening due to expectations that the Fed will continue its monetary easing , EURUSD has failed to break higher as the euro’s internal strength shows clear signs of weakness . With these two fundamental forces offsetting each other , the market is gradually leaning toward a short-term corrective decline.
On the fundamental side, disappointing Eurozone PMI data highlights a sharper-than-expected slowdown in economic growth , particularly in manufacturing and services. This has weighed on the euro, preventing EURUSD from capitalizing on USD weakness and increasing the likelihood of a pullback as buying momentum fades.
From a technical perspective, price is currently pulling back to retest the rising trendline and the Ichimoku cloud, signaling that selling pressure is building. The preferred technical scenario is a pullback toward the 1.1700 area, where dynamic support and structural support converge.
At this stage, it is more appropriate to observe price reaction at key support levels rather than expect a strong upside move. The market is testing patience—and it is often during these corrective phases that the clearest opportunities begin to emerge.
$BTC’s Move Toward $80,000 AcceleratesFollowing a confirmed breakout from the 4-hour upward channel with two successful retests, price has entered a short-term downward channel. Aligned with the higher-timeframe bullish trend, this structure suggests a potential continuation move toward the $80,000 level.
Any thoughts?
NIFTY 50 Rejection & Downside Targets in Focus NIFTY 50 on the 4H timeframe has reached a key buy side liquidity zone near the upper boundary of an ascending channel. After forming a swing high price shows signs of distribution and potential reversal. A downside move is anticipated toward sell-side liquidity with projected targets at 25,406, 25,019, and 24,607. Bias remains bearish below the recent highs.
In Bullish Scenario BTC may reach ATH in next few weeksThe market is extremely bearish, and there is a lot of fear right now. This scenario has happened before—BTC surprised everyone and pumped. Then, suddenly, everyone becomes bullish again, and that’s when BTC dumps by around 50% or more.
Not a financial advice. I could be wrong in very next week.
BTC | UPDATE📊 BTC Update — Key Levels in Play
Bitcoin is currently reacting near a critical structure zone. Price holding above support keeps the bullish scenario valid, with momentum favoring a continuation toward the next resistance level. A clean reaction from these levels could confirm further upside.
🔓 Entry: 87,195
❌ Stop Loss: 85,843
🎯 Target: 88,098
Market structure and liquidity around this area make it a level worth watching closely.
What’s your bias from here — continuation or rejection? 👇
Support with a like if this helps your analysis 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post reflects personal market analysis. Not financial advice.
Potential bearish drop?Aussie (AUD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support, which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 0.6619
1st Support: 0.6540
1st Resistance: 0.6672
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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GBPUSD - H4 Outlook | Bearish Setup Letss Goo Pair is in a higher-timeframe bullish trend, but price has reached premium liquidity.
• Multiple Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) taken at the highs (equal highs / inducement).
• A Turtle Soup setup forms at the top → classic liquidity grab and trap.
⸻
Structure Shift
• After taking highs, price delivers a Market Structure Shift (MSS) to the downside.
• This confirms bearish intent after liquidity sweep.
• Previous bullish structure is invalidated.
⸻
Entry Model
• Price retraces back into:
• Bearish Order Block (OB)
• Fair Value Gap (FVG) in premium zone
• This zone acts as sell entry area.
⸻
Trade Execution
• Bias: Sell (Short)
• Entry: Inside OB + FVG after MSS confirmation
• Stop Loss: Above the liquidity highs / OB high
• Targets:
1. Internal liquidity
2. Prior low
3. Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) at the bottom (main target)
⸻
Why This Trade Works
• Liquidity taken first (Turtle Soup)
• MSS confirms smart money reversal
• Entry from premium imbalance
• Targeting discounted liquidity (SSL)
XRPUSDT — Bulls Target Activated $1.95 and $2.48!BINANCE:XRPUSDT has pulled back into a key demand and entry zone at $1.88 – $1.95 and is showing a positive reaction on the 4H timeframe. This area is acting as support and keeps the bullish bias intact.
As long as price holds above this zone, upside continuation is favored with targets at $1.9510 (TP1) and $2.4824 (TP2).
A clean break below $1.8024 would invalidate the setup and weaken the bullish structure. Risk is clearly defined, making this a structured long opportunity.
#XRPUSDT #XRP #CryptoTrading #Altcoins
Bitcoin — Rare Bearish ConfluenceBitcoin — Multi-Timeframe Bearish Confluence (Top-Down Analysis)
This analysis is based purely on technical structure, momentum behavior, and multi-timeframe pressure — not prediction.
After being asked for my view on BTC, I opened the chart and was surprised by the amount of bearish confluence across higher timeframes. The alignment is unusually strong and rare.
MONTHLY — Long-Term Context
Two large wide RSI divergences forming deep in extreme overbought territory
Additional back-to-back tight divergences on RSI
Clear signs of long-term momentum exhaustion and distribution
Selling pressure on this timeframe is significant and uncommon
WEEKLY — Structural Confirmation
Back-to-back wide RSI divergences in overbought territory
One clear MACD divergence confirming momentum weakness
A tight RSI divergence formed just before the long-term trendline break
Long-term trendline break confirms structural shift
Together, Monthly and Weekly charts suggest strong, sustained selling pressure rather than a short-term correction.
DAILY — Pattern Confirmation
Small triangle formation
Double top structure with confirmed breakdown
Daily price action aligns with higher-timeframe bearish bias
2H — Execution Context
Strong selling pressure initiated by multiple groups of traders
Clear pullback into a previously defined key zone
Candlestick rejections confirming supply
This area previously presented a potential short opportunity (already shared separately)
15M — Final Confirmation
Trendline break
Symmetrical triangle breakdown
Confirms lower-timeframe alignment with higher-timeframe pressure
Big Picture Summary
Across five different timeframes, the market is communicating the same message:
strong bearish pressure and structural weakness.
From my perspective, this environment favors risk reduction on long exposure. Any downside continuation would not be surprising given the depth of multi-timeframe confluence.
Price may react at intermediate support levels, but the overall structure suggests that lower prices remain a realistic scenario as long as this structure stays intact.
This post is not about calling exact targets or timing the market.
It is about reading pressure, structure, and alignment across timeframes.
Time will ultimately tell.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves risk. Always conduct your own analysis.
I am not responsible for any decisions or losses based on this idea.
Market Analysis: USD/CAD Slides FurtherMarket Analysis: USD/CAD Slides Further
USD/CAD declined and is now consolidating losses below 1.3800.
Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today
- USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 1.3800.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3780 on the hourly chart.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/CAD, the pair climbed toward 1.3880 before the bears appeared. The US Dollar formed a swing high near 1.3872 and recently declined below 1.3800 against the Canadian Dollar.
There was also a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3780. The bulls are now active near 1.3730, but they might fail to protect more losses. If there is an upside correction, the pair could face resistance near 1.3780 and a connecting bearish trend line.
An upside break above the trend line might send the pair toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3872 swing high to the 1.3730 low.
The next key hurdle on the USD/CAD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.3815. If there is a close above 1.3815, the pair could rise toward 1.3870. The next major sell zone is 1.3900, above which it could rise steadily toward the 1.4000 handle.
Immediate support is near the 1.3750 level. The first major area of interest for the bulls could be 1.3730. A close below the 1.3730 level might trigger a strong decline. In the stated case, USD/CAD might test 1.3650. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a drop toward 1.3600.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Back In DemandMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Back In Demand
GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3350 and 1.3400.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today
- The British Pound is eyeing more gains above 1.3430.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3390 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD, the pair formed a base above the 1.3300 level. The British Pound started a steady increase above 1.3350 against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair gained strength above 1.3380 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It even cleared the 1.3400 handle and tested 1.3450. It is now consolidating gains below 1.3430. There was a minor pullback below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3354 swing low to the 1.3456 high, and the RSI dipped below 50.
However, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3390. On the upside, the bulls face resistance near 1.3405 on the GBP/USD chart. The first major hurdle could be 1.3430.
An upside break above 1.3430 could send the pair toward 1.3455. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.3500. If there is a downside correction, immediate support is near the 1.3390 level, the trend line, the 61.8% Fib retracement, and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The first major area of interest for the bulls could be near 1.3355. The next pivot level sits near 1.3330. If there is a break below 1.3330, the pair could extend the decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop and test 1.3290. Any more losses might call for a move toward 1.3250.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The price of gold will rise above $5,000!Technical analysis: The Price-action has reversed following the #4,262.80 local Low's making Hourly 4 chart an aggressive Ascending Channel which is not against my Short to Medium-term expectations. However I am still expecting on the Medium-term the Daily chart's Ascending Channel no limits towards #5,100.80 benchmark, posing as well as an retracement level which on (1W) Weekly chart will form possible Annual Ultimate High's, however Short-term Targets are intact / #4,352.80 / #4,402.80.
When All Timeframes Align: Weekly to 15m High-Probability SetupMain Timeframe — Weekly (Directional Bias)
Back-to- back wide divergence (very rare occurrence)
Long-term trendline break , shifting market structure
Provides the primary bearish directional bias
🔹 Higher Confirmation — Daily
Rising wedge breakdown
Pullback into the broken wedge structure
Confirms the Weekly bearish bias
🔹 Trade Setup — 2H
Strong resistance zone
--> Multiple rejections (3 clear touches)
--> Recently formed, clearly visible on the left
--> Obvious reaction area (high-probability zone)
Candlestick context
--> Inside bar at resistance
Confluence
--> 50–61.8% Fibonacci retracement
--> Broken trendline acting as resistance
🔹 Entry Timeframe — 15-Minute
Trendline break
Symmetrical triangle breakdown
Entry only after structure confirmation
🛑 Risk Management
Stop-loss above:
Resistance zone
EMA 50
Fibonacci 61.8%
Broken trendline
Descending trendline
➡️ Multi-layer protection
🎯 Target
Minimum R:R = 1:3
Justified by full top-down alignment across all timeframes
💬 Final Note
If you appreciate clean, rule-based, and well-explained market analysis , feel free to follow.
Your thoughts and alternative perspectives are always welcome in the comments.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves risk — always conduct your own analysis.
I am not responsible for any decisions or losses based on this idea.
ES UpdateES and NQ RSI barely touched oversold at the end of the day. Based on the closing action I assume inflation numbers will suck tomorrow, that and YM and RTY are not oversold yet.
I think tomorrow will be the reversal day and we get a Xmas rally. Unless inflation numbers are real low in which case we'll see a gap up.
GOLD (XAUUSD) – Technical Structure & Key LevelsGold continues to trade within a well-defined bullish structure, respecting an ascending trendline while forming higher highs and higher lows. Price action remains supported above the key dynamic trend support, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
A major resistance zone is clearly identified near the recent swing highs. This area has previously triggered selling pressure, making it a critical level to watch for either a breakout continuation or a short-term reaction.
On the downside, price is currently holding above a near-term support zone, which aligns with the bullish trendline and short-term moving averages. As long as price remains above this region, the broader bullish bias remains intact. Below that, a strong demand zone is visible, which has historically provided solid buying interest.
Technical Highlights:
Bullish ascending trend structure
Price holding above dynamic trend support
Clear resistance zone overhead
Multiple support layers below for risk control
Momentum favors continuation if resistance is broken with confirmation
This chart focuses on structure, key levels, and trend behavior, allowing traders to plan scenarios based on confirmation rather than prediction.
EURUSD – Clean Bounce from 200 SMA Signals Bullish BiasEURUSD | Technical Idea – Bullish Context
EURUSD has shown a clean and well-respected bounce from the 200 SMA, confirming it as a strong dynamic support. The reaction from this level was sharp, indicating active buyers stepping in and defending the structure.
Price action remains constructive, with higher lows holding and momentum gradually shifting bullish. The recent rejection from lower levels suggests continuation potential toward higher liquidity areas, offering a favorable reward-to-risk environment for buy-side setups.
At this stage, price is behaving nicely and aligning with the overall bullish technical context. As long as the 200 SMA continues to hold and structure remains intact, the bias stays to the upside.
Patience here is key — the market is setting up, not rushing.
NASDAQ100 Technical Roadmap for Swing Traders📈 NASDAQ100 Bullish Swing Setup — Pullback to Power Move?
Asset:
NAS100 / US100 — NASDAQ 100 Index 💻📊
Market Type: Index
Trade Style: Swing Trade
📌 Market Plan (Bias):
🟢 Bullish structure confirmed
Price is respecting the Triangular Moving Average (TMA) pullback, signaling continuation strength within the broader uptrend.
🎯 Entry Strategy:
✅ Any Price Level Entry (Layered Approach Allowed)
Layering / Scaling-In Method:
This plan uses a multiple limit order (layering) strategy to optimize average entry during pullbacks.
Buy Limit Layers:
24900
25000
25100
📌 (You may increase or adjust layers based on your own risk and capital allocation)
🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control):
🔴 Thief SL: 24700
📢 Adjust your stop loss according to your personal risk management and strategy.
This level invalidates the bullish pullback structure if broken.
🎯 Target / Exit Plan:
🟠 Primary Target: 25800
📌 Rationale:
Strong resistance zone
Overbought conditions may appear
Trap potential near highs
Possible corrective move from resistance
💡 Action: Secure profits near resistance — don’t overstay.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
📢 Stop loss and target levels are for educational purposes only.
📢 Always manage risk independently and trade responsibly.
🔗 Related Markets to Watch (Correlation & Confirmation):
📊 US Indices (Direct Correlation):
US30 (Dow Jones) 🏭
→ Strength confirms broad US equity participation
SPX500 (S&P 500) 📈
→ Institutional flow confirmation for NASDAQ strength
💵 USD Index & Rates (Inverse / Indirect Impact):
DXY (US Dollar Index) 💲
→ Strong USD can slow tech upside; weakness supports NAS100
US10Y Treasury Yield 📉
→ Falling yields = bullish for growth & tech stocks
🧠 Risk Sentiment Assets:
BTC/USD ₿
→ Risk-on flows often align with NASDAQ momentum
VIX (Volatility Index) ⚡
→ Rising VIX = caution; falling VIX = trend continuation
💬 Final Note:
📈 Follow structure, respect risk, scale wisely.
🧠 Let price confirm — don’t chase.
👍 If this plan helps your analysis, boost with a like and share your view.
Caution: Cash Levels Among Fund Managers Are at Record LowsAccording to the latest Global Fund Manager Survey conducted by Bank of America, the percentage of cash held by fund managers has fallen to 3.3%, the lowest level since 1999. In terms of asset allocation, historically low cash levels among managers have often coincided with peaks in equity markets. Conversely, periods when cash levels reached elevated zones were frequently precursors to major market bottoms and to the end of bear markets.
At a time when S&P 500 valuations are in an overextended bullish zone, this new historical low in cash holdings among managers therefore constitutes a signal of caution. Sooner or later, cash levels are likely to rebound, which would translate into downward pressure on equity markets. This reflects the basic principle of asset allocation between cash, equities, and bonds, with capital flowing from one reservoir to another. It is the fundamental mechanism of asset allocation: the reservoirs represented by cash, equities, and bonds fill and empty at the expense of one another.
This signal is all the more significant because such a low level of cash implies that managers are already heavily invested. In other words, the vast majority of available capital has already been allocated to equities. In this environment, the pool of marginal buyers shrinks considerably, making the market more vulnerable to any negative shock: macroeconomic disappointment, a rise in long-term interest rates, geopolitical tensions, or even simple profit-taking.
Moreover, historically low cash levels reflect an extreme bullish consensus. Financial markets, however, tend to move against overly established consensuses. When everyone is positioned in the same direction, the risk-reward balance deteriorates. In such cases, the market does not necessarily need a major negative catalyst to correct; the mere absence of positive news can sometimes be enough to trigger a consolidation.
It is also important to recall that the rise in the S&P 500 has been accompanied by an extreme concentration of performance in a limited number of stocks, mainly related to technology and artificial intelligence. In such an environment, a simple portfolio rebalancing or sector rotation can amplify downward moves.
Finally, the gradual return of cash typically does not occur without pain for equity markets. It is often accompanied by a phase of increased volatility, or even a correction, allowing a healthier balance to be restored between valuations, positioning, and economic prospects.
In summary, this historically low level of cash among fund managers is not a signal of an imminent crash, but it clearly calls for caution, more rigorous risk management, and greater selectivity within the S&P 500, in an environment where optimism appears to be largely priced in.
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