$ETH 1W: Zoomed out thoughts On the weekly, ETH still looks structurally constructive, but it’s very clearly in range rather than trend right now.
Price is sitting back in the middle of a large multi-year range, roughly bounded by the ~$2,000 area on the downside and ~$4,700 on the upside. The recent pullback from the highs did not break the broader structure, but it also failed to establish acceptance above resistance, which is why ETH has slipped back into chop.
The $3,000–3,100 region is acting as an important short-term pivot. Holding above this area keeps ETH neutral-to-bullish from a higher timeframe perspective. A loss of this level would likely open a deeper retrace toward $2,700 and potentially the $2,000–2,100 region, which remains the most important higher timeframe demand zone on the chart.
What’s constructive is that the prior low near $2,000 was aggressively bought and led to a strong impulse toward the top of the range. That tells me higher timeframe buyers are still active. What’s missing right now is follow-through and expansion above resistance. Until ETH can reclaim and hold above $3,500–3,600, upside moves are still best viewed as range rotations rather than trend continuation.
The projected path on the chart highlights what usually happens in these environments: chop, higher lows, and frustration before a real expansion. If ETH can continue to base above $3,000 and eventually reclaim $3,500, the odds shift toward a push back to the $4,700 range high. If not, more time and rotation inside the range should be expected.
In short, ETH looks healthy but unresolved. This is not a breakout market yet, and it’s not a breakdown either. It’s a classic higher timeframe range where buying dips has historically worked better than chasing strength, until price proves it can escape the range and hold.
Chart Patterns
NZDCHF Losing Strength | Sellers Target Lower Levels🔻🧊 NZDCHF Losing Strength | Sellers Target Lower Levels 🎯
Overview:
NZDCHF is showing bearish continuation signs, with price reacting near a key supply area, opening the door for further downside movement.
Sell Zone (Focus Area):
🔴 0.4600 – 0.4595
This zone acts as a resistance area where selling pressure is expected to remain active.
Downside Targets:
🎯 Target 1: 0.4570 – Initial downside reaction
🎯 Target 2: 0.4560 – Continuation target
🎯 Target 3: 0.4550 – Deeper downside objective
Why This Setup Works:
✔ Price respecting a clear resistance zone
✔ Bearish structure remains intact
✔ Smooth downside path with defined targets
Trade Management Insight:
Scaling out at each target helps secure profits while maintaining exposure for further downside continuation.
Execution Guidance:
Allow price to confirm rejection or acceptance near the sell zone before entry. Precision improves outcomes.
Final Note:
As long as price remains below the resistance zone, the probability favors a move toward lower targets.
⸻
✨ Special Note for Serious Traders
If you value clean setups, precise targets, and disciplined execution over emotional trading, feel free to connect. I work with traders who focus on structure, patience, and long-term consistency.
USDJPY: Liquidity Grab Complete — Bearish Pullback Toward 156.80USDJPY is facing strong rejection near the 157.90–158.00 resistance zone after taking buy-side liquidity. On H4, price is trading inside a rising wedge / converging structure, which often leads to a bearish pullback. RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions, while MACD momentum is weakening, suggesting buyer exhaustion. A corrective move toward the lower structure support around 156.80 is likely, where previous demand and sell-side liquidity are resting.
Avidity Biosciences : A Compelling Merger-Arbitrage OpportunityAvidity Biosciences (RNA): A Compelling Merger-Arbitrage Opportunity with a Clear Valuation Floor
Analysis of the Novartis Acquisition and Investment Thesis
Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: RNA) has emerged as a focal point for investors following its landmark $12 billion merger agreement with pharmaceutical giant Novartis AG. The deal, announced at a definitive price of $72 per share, triggered an immediate and substantial market re-rating, with shares surging approximately 42% on the news. However, with the stock trading around $71-$72, a sophisticated and low-risk opportunity appears to remain, structured around the mechanics of the transaction itself and the creation of a separate entity known as "SpinCo."
Deal Structure: Simplicity with a Bonus Component
The acquisition is strategically straightforward for Novartis, which aims to bolster its neuroscience portfolio with Avidity's innovative RNA-targeted therapeutics. There is no business overlap, streamlining regulatory approval. The transaction is slated to close in the first half of 2026, introducing a time horizon that contributes to current market pricing dynamics.
The unique element is the pre-closing formation of SpinCo. Prior to finalizing the merger, Avidity will transfer its early-stage precision cardiology programs and rights from two existing collaborations (with partners Bristol Myers Squibb and Eli Lilly) into this new, wholly-owned subsidiary. Critically, these partnered assets are structured such that the collaborators bear all research and development costs. This leaves SpinCo primarily responsible for minimal administrative overhead while holding potential future royalty or milestone rights.
Valuation Breakdown: The $72 Floor and the "Free Option"
The investment thesis rests on a clear arithmetic breakdown of value:
The Guaranteed Cash Consideration ($72/Share): Novartis is contractually obligated to pay $72 per share in cash upon deal closing. This provides a hard valuation floor. At a current price slightly below this figure, the market is effectively offering a small discount to account for the time value of money and the remote risk of deal failure over the next ~18 months.
The SpinCo "Bonus" (Estimated $2-$3/Share): Shareholders will receive 1 share of SpinCo for every 10 shares of RNA they own. This entity is seeded with approximately $270 million in cash and the rights to the partnered programs. Even assuming the partnerships hold minimal or no additional value, the cash alone supports a SpinCo valuation. Conservative estimates place SpinCo's value at $2 to $3 per RNA equivalent share, with a bear-case floor of ~$1. This component is currently being valued by the market at close to zero, representing a "free option" for shareholders.
Net Present Value Calculation:
Base Case: $72 (Novartis cash) + $2.50 (SpinCo estimate) = $74.50 per share of implied value.
Annualized Return: If acquired at $71.50 with a mid-2026 close, the return from the $72 cash alone approximates a low-single-digit annualized yield. The SpinCo value represents pure, uncompensated upside, boosting the potential annualized return meaningfully.
Market Inefficiency and Catalyst Potential
The discount to the guaranteed $72 payout likely stems from two factors:
Biotech Fund Reallocation: Specialized biotech funds, required to hold only developing companies, may be forced to sell RNA post-announcement, creating technical selling pressure.
Timing and Complexity Uncertainty: The 2026 closing and the novel SpinCo structure introduce elements that some automated or generalist investors may avoid.
These factors create an inefficiency. Furthermore, significant catalysts could materialize:
SpinCo Monetization: There is a possibility that the collaboration assets are sold back to partners BMY or LLY, potentially leading to a cash dividend or a secondary takeover of SpinCo itself before the Novartis deal closes.
Accelerated Timeline: While unlikely, any indication of a faster regulatory review would immediately compress the time-discount.
Technical Perspective: Support Levels in a Defined Range
With the stock now trading in a narrow band below its guaranteed takeover price, its technical behavior is influenced by merger-arbitrage flows rather than traditional biotech fundamentals. For investors considering entry, Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent surge highlight potential areas of support during any market-wide or sector-specific volatility:
Primary Support ($60.54): This level aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the post-announcement rally. It represents a significant pullback that would likely attract strong arbitrage-driven buying, viewing it as an enhanced yield opportunity.
Secondary Support ($53.08): The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement serves as a deeper, stronger support zone. A retreat to this level would be unexpected in a stable deal environment but would present a highly compelling risk/reward entry given the $72 cash floor.
Conclusion: A Asymmetric Risk/Reward Proposition
The Avidity-Novartis deal presents a classic, low-volatility merger-arbitrage setup with an added twist. Investors purchasing RNA near its current price are essentially:
Lending money to the market at a positive annualized yield, secured by Novartis's obligation to repay $72.
Receiving a free call option on the SpinCo subsidiary, which has tangible cash value and potential upside.
With a credible acquirer, no material adverse conditions, and a transparent structure, the primary risks are deal delay and opportunity cost—not permanent capital loss. This makes Avidity Biosciences a compelling consideration for investors seeking to park capital with limited downside and defined, uncorrelated upside in a diversified portfolio.
AUDCHF Facing Supply Pressure | Downside Targets in Focus🔻🌊 AUDCHF Facing Supply Pressure | Downside Targets in Focus 🎯
Overview:
AUDCHF is showing bearish pressure, with price approaching a well-defined supply area, favoring a controlled move to the downside.
Sell Zone (Focus Area):
🔴 0.5358 – 0.5360
This zone represents a strong supply area where selling interest is expected to emerge.
Downside Targets:
🎯 Target 1: 0.5310 – Initial downside reaction
🎯 Target 2: 0.5300 – Deeper downside target
Why This Setup Works:
✔ Price reacting near a clear resistance zone
✔ Bearish structure favors downside continuation
✔ Clean, low-noise movement expected
Trade Management Insight:
Partial profit booking near Target 1 helps protect capital while allowing continuation toward lower targets.
Execution Guidance:
Wait for price to show rejection or acceptance near the sell zone before entering. Avoid early or emotional entries.
Final Note:
As long as price reacts from the supply area, the probability favors a move toward the downside targets.
⸻
✨ Special Note for Serious Traders
If you prefer structured levels, clear targets, and disciplined execution over noisy signals, feel free to connect. I work with traders who value precision, patience, and consistency.
Previous week selling delivered massive Results XAUUSD last week Recap
As outlined in all previous week market market update, the plan was to wait for a confirmed rejection at 4480-=500 . Price delivered exactly as expected rejected at 4500 psychological level with a successful drop towards 4400 support level.
📌 Execution:
Buy orders were placed within the 4498–4485-4478-4464-4455& 4442 lastly .
🎯 Results:
Targets were achieved on extension at 4420 and 4410 with clean follow-through but last trades which I opened from 4440 zone missed buy 20 pips from TP at 4405 and later it hits BE.
Well done to everyone who followed the plan and held positions with patience.
Discipline and execution made the difference — enjoy the profits.
CADCHF Forming a Solid Base | Slow Pair, Strong Targets 🧱📈 CADCHF Forming a Solid Base | Slow Pair, Strong Targets 🎯
Overview:
CADCHF is showing gradual bullish strength. This pair typically moves slowly, but the current price action indicates a well-established base, often seen before sustained upside moves.
Buy Zone (Focus Area):
🟢 0.5750
This level acts as a strong base where buyers are accumulating with patience.
Upside Targets:
🎯 Target 1: 0.5770 – Initial upside reaction
🎯 Target 2: 0.5790 – Continuation target
🎯 Target 3: 0.5800 – Psychological resistance
🎯 Target 4: 0.5820 – Extended upside target
🚀 Long-Term Target: 0.5850 – Broader bullish objective
Why This Setup Works:
✔ Strong base formation at support
✔ Bullish structure building slowly but cleanly
✔ Slow-moving pair reduces noise and false breakouts
Trade Management Insight:
This setup favors patient position management. Booking partial profits at each target helps secure gains while holding for long-term potential.
Execution Guidance:
Allow price time to develop from the base. Avoid overtrading—this pair rewards discipline and patience.
Final Note:
As long as the base remains intact, the probability favors a steady move toward higher targets.
EURCHF | Strategic BUY Opportunity🟢💼 EURCHF | Strategic BUY Opportunity (Structured Upside Setup)
Overview:
EURCHF is showing bullish continuation potential, with price holding strength near a key demand area, favoring further upside movement.
Buy Zone (Focus Area):
🟢 0.9310 – 0.9315
This zone represents a strong accumulation area where buyers are actively supporting price.
Upside Objectives:
🎯 0.9340 – Primary upside reaction
🚀 0.9360 – Possible extension with momentum
🔍 0.9380 – Level to be re-evaluated based on price behavior
Why This Setup Works:
✔ Price holding above a clear demand zone
✔ Bullish structure remains intact
✔ Upside momentum supported by controlled price action
Trade Management Insight:
Partial profit-taking at initial targets helps protect capital while allowing room for extended upside moves.
Execution Guidance:
Enter only after price shows acceptance or bullish confirmation within the buy zone. Patience improves precision.
Final Note:
As long as price respects the demand area, upside continuation remains the higher-probability scenario.
⸻
✨ Special Note for Serious Traders
If you value structured levels, calm execution, and professional risk control over emotional trading, feel free to connect. I work with traders who focus on consistency, not noise.
🔒 Professional approach. Disciplined risk. Sustainable growth.
Oklo (OKLO) Soars on Transformative Meta Partnership!Oklo (OKLO) Soars on Transformative Meta Partnership, Securing Nuclear-Powered Future for AI
Shares of Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) surged dramatically on Friday, catapulting over 18% higher following the announcement of a landmark strategic agreement with tech titan Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META). This partnership represents a pivotal validation and acceleration of Oklo's vision, directly linking its advanced nuclear energy technology to the most urgent power demand driver of the decade: artificial intelligence.
At the core of the deal is the development of a massive, purpose-built 1.2-gigawatt (GW) nuclear power campus in Pike County, Ohio, designed to supply clean, reliable electricity to Meta's expanding network of AI data centers in the region. In a critical show of commitment, Meta will provide upfront prepayments for future energy, effectively helping to fund the early-stage development, procurement, and construction activities for Oklo's pioneering reactor designs.
This agreement is far more than a standard power-purchase agreement; it is a strategic enabler for Oklo. The capital infusion from Meta will be channeled into securing nuclear fuel and accelerating Phase 1 development on the 206-acre site acquired from the U.S. Department of Energy. As Oklo's CEO Jacob DeWitte stated, this "funding commitment... is a major step in moving advanced nuclear forward." The company plans to initiate site suitability studies and pre-construction work this year, targeting the first phase of the multi-year project to be operational by 2030.
The AI Energy Imperative Meets Advanced Nuclear
The partnership underscores a fundamental truth of the AI era: the exponential growth of computational power is colliding with the physical limits of the electrical grid. AI data centers require massive, continuous, and scalable power—a demand that legacy renewable sources often struggle to meet consistently and that fossil fuels address at an environmental cost. Meta's aggressive move into nuclear, which also includes deals with TerraPower and a 6.6 GW agreement with Vistra, signals a strategic pivot by Big Tech to secure baseload, low-carbon power at an industrial scale.
Oklo's technology is uniquely positioned to answer this call. The company is developing small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced fission systems, which promise enhanced safety, faster construction, and flexible deployment compared to traditional nuclear plants. For Meta, partnering with Oklo is a forward-looking bet on securing a dedicated, clean energy source for its AI ambitions, potentially locking in long-term price stability and sustainability credentials.
Financial and Market Implications: From Concept to Commercial Reality
For Oklo, this deal is transformative. As a pre-revenue company focused on development, securing a cornerstone agreement with a creditworthy partner like Meta de-risks its path forward. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives highlighted the significance, noting the deal "provides Oklo with the necessary capital from commercial partners to advance power infrastructure," fundamentally changing its funding narrative. This partnership validates Oklo's business model and provides a clear, high-profile pathway to its first commercial revenue.
Technical Analysis: Mapping the Momentum
The explosive news-driven gap in OKLO's share price has reshaped its technical landscape. For traders and investors evaluating entry points amid the volatility, Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent major move provide a framework for identifying potential support and resistance.
Support Zones:
Primary Support ($99.58): This level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A pullback to this zone would represent a healthy, moderate retracement of the recent surge and could attract buyers looking for a consolidation entry.
Secondary Support ($77.34): The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level serves as a deeper, stronger support zone. A successful hold here would indicate underlying strength and a potential base for the next upward leg.
Resistance & Profit-Taking Targets:
Initial Target ($121.81): The 0.382 Fibonacci extension level provides a logical first profit-taking target as the stock seeks to establish a new, higher trading range post-announcement.
Extended Target ($149.33): A more ambitious target lies at the 0.236 Fibonacci extension. A move toward this level would signal that the bullish momentum initiated by the Meta deal has sustained power and is attracting continued investment.
Strategic Outlook
Oklo's agreement with Meta is a watershed moment, bridging the worlds of deep-tech nuclear innovation and hyperscale computing. It accelerates Oklo's timeline, bolsters its credibility, and provides a crucial funding mechanism. While execution risk remains—including regulatory milestones, construction timelines, and technology deployment—the partnership fundamentally alters the company's trajectory. For the market, it crystallizes a powerful investment thesis: Advanced nuclear energy is not an alternative fantasy but an essential infrastructure component for the AI-driven future. Oklo, with its first major commercial anchor tenant secured, has positioned itself at the forefront of this convergence.
BTCUSDT – Key Supply & Demand Zones | 4H Market StructureBitcoin is currently reacting near a previously respected demand zone after a strong impulse move. Price is consolidating below a higher-timeframe resistance while holding above structural support.
This idea highlights key zones of interest, potential reactions, and areas where volatility may increase.
No predictions — price action confirmation is required.
Key Levels:
Resistance zone (HTF)
Demand zone (range base)
Support zone (invalidation area)
Notes:
This is a technical perspective, not financial advice. Always manage risk.
BTCUSD – Bullish Setup (Daily)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is showing early bullish reversal confluences after a prolonged downtrend.
Bullish confluences:
Price bounced from the lower volatility band / demand zone
Higher low formed, breaking short-term bearish structure
Price reclaiming the mid-band / dynamic resistance (trend MA)
Bullish reaction from Fib retracement support
Volatility compression → expansion likely to the upside
As long as price holds above the 90,000–90,500 support, bullish continuation is favored.
🎯 Fibonacci Upside Targets:
Target 1 (38.2%): ~95,300
Target 2 (61.8%): ~98,400
Target 3 (100%): ~103,400
A clean break and hold above the 61.8% Fib would significantly increase probability of a full retrace toward the 100% level.
Invalidation:
Daily close below ~88,800 invalidates the bullish setup.
EURUSD Long: Bulls Defend 1.1620 Demand, Targeting Supply 1.1680Hello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of EURUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD initially traded within a well-defined range, where price moved sideways for an extended period, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers. During this consolidation phase, the market attempted several breakouts, including a fake breakout to the upside, which signaled weakness and lack of bullish continuation. Eventually, price achieved a valid range breakout, initiating an impulsive bullish move. Following this breakout, EURUSD reached a pivot point, where bullish momentum stalled and sellers began to step in. From this pivot high, price structure shifted into a descending channel, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming short-term bearish control. Price respected the channel boundaries well, indicating an orderly corrective move rather than panic selling. As EURUSD continued lower, it approached a strong Demand Zone around 1.1620, which aligns with a rising higher-timeframe trend line. This confluence area acted as a key support, where buyers responded aggressively. From this demand zone, price broke out of the descending channel, signaling weakening bearish momentum and a potential shift back toward bullish control.
Currently, price is reacting positively from demand and attempting to move higher. The next key level to watch is the Supply Zone around 1.1680, where previous selling pressure is expected to reappear. This level also coincides with prior structural reactions, increasing the probability of a pause or rejection.
My scenario: as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1620 Demand Zone and respects the rising trend line, the bullish bias remains valid. I expect buyers to push price toward the 1.1680 Supply Zone, where a reaction or short-term pullback may occur. A clean breakout and acceptance above supply would confirm bullish continuation. However, a strong rejection from supply or a breakdown below demand would increase the probability of bearish continuation. For now, price is at a key decision area, and disciplined risk management is essential. Manage your risk!
"Bear Flag" - The Lazy Bitcoin Pattern Every Dog KnowsIt always surprises me how lazy technical analysis has become. What has TA turned into? Google image search "bearish pattern" → draw two parallel lines → post for engagement.
Let's go candle by candle since nobody else will:
Within this "bearish pennant" - which depending on how you draw your trendlines is ALSO clearly a rising wedge - there are about 80 different patterns unfolding. But sure, let's talk about the one pattern your dog could identify.
Here's what kills me: Did anyone mention the micro head and shoulders forming inside this structure? No? Just lazy bear flag posts? Nobody's talking about the patterns within the pattern.
THE STRUCTURE:
Cup & Handle, inverses etc forming inside a Rising Wedge
Inside a Rounded Triple Bottom
Forming the right shoulder of a macro Inverse Head & Shoulders
Micro H&S within the current consolidation
Neckline sits at 97.5K
Broken uptrend now acting as a MAGNET - price will hug this line on the way back up
THE LEVELS (since nobody else gave you any):
Invalidation: 94,266 - Break this and the micro H&S fails
Target 1: 95K - Within 7 days
Target 2: 105K - Within 30 days if structure holds
If bearish plays out: 76,556 zone - If that micro H&S breaks down, there's room for one more push lower
THE REALITY:
In this market you have to adapt like water. If 94,266 breaks and the micro H&S plays out bearish, there's room for a final push down. I'm not married to a direction - I'm married to levels and structure. The market will tell you what it wants to do.
But here's what I know: if you're posting bear flags, you better be short. Post your positions or don't post at all. It's complete nonsense if you can't stand on what you post.
I'm long here.
That's the difference. I'm telling you my position, my invalidation, and my targets. Where's yours?
To the bear flag crowd:
Go take your shorts. Post your entries. Show me your stop loss. Explain the logic behind your actual bearish formation beyond "it looks like the picture I googled."
Give me specific invalidation levels. Tell me where you're wrong. Otherwise you're just posting for likes while real traders are positioning.
95K in 7 days. 105K in 30. I'm long.
Your move.
DraftKings Super Bowl ReboundThe Super Bowl is typically the largest customer acquisition event of the year for sportsbooks, and DraftKings is currently positioning itself to capture massive volume for Super Bowl LX
Customer Acquisition Spike: DraftKings is currently running aggressive "Bet $5, Get $300" promos to lock in new users ahead of the playoffs. This surge in downloads and active users often translates into bullish sentiment in the weeks leading up to the big game.
Handle Growth: Management recently reported that sportsbook wagering was up 17% year-over-year as of late 2025, providing a strong baseline of momentum heading into the peak betting season of Q1 2026.
Revenue Projection: For the current quarter, analysts are projecting massive revenue of $1.94 billion, a 38.95% increase from the previous year, driven largely by the heavy NFL postseason and Super Bowl slate.
2. The New 2026 Catalyst: "DraftKings Predictions"
A unique factor for this year's "Super Bowl madness" is the launch of DraftKings Predictions.
This new platform allows DraftKings to enter states that do not yet have legal online sports betting, significantly expanding their addressable market for the Super Bowl.
Analysts expect this "event contract" model to have higher margins and lower promotional costs than traditional betting, which could be the "X-factor" that drives a breakout.
3. Technical Analysis ($35.17 as of Jan 9)
Your TradingView chart likely shows NASDAQ:DKNG testing a key structural pivot:
Resistance: The stock is currently fighting the $36.00 level. A high-volume break above this would be a "Strong Buy" signal, potentially targeting the $50.00 range seen in early 2025.
Broadening Structure: As of January 9, 2026, the stock is trading in a horizontal trend channel. The "Super Bowl run" usually provides the volume needed to break out of such a range.
BTC 1Hr Analysis BTCUSDT – 1H Technical Analysis
🧱 Market Structure
Clear Double Bottom formed around 89,300 – 89,600
Strong bullish impulse after the pattern
Price failed to hold above resistance and is now ranging
Recent structure shows HL → LH → indicating consolidation, not reversal yet
👉 Bias: Nutral → Slightly Bullish (range-bound)
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Strong 1H close above 91,900
Targets:
92,600
93,200
Structure flips bullish again
🔴 Bearish Scenario
1H close below 89,500
Targets:
88,700
87,900
Double bottom invalidated
$APA: Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout coming soon.APA Corporation ( NASDAQ:APA ) showing a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a major bullish reversal signal typically found at the end of a downtrend
The "AI-Energy" Narrative: NASDAQ:APA surged over 8% on January 9, 2026, following reports linking increased LNG demand to the massive power needs of AI data centres.
Institutional Support: JPMorgan Chase and other institutions recently increased their stakes, signalling professional confidence in the stock's 2026 prospects.
Technical "Strong Buy": Moving averages (MA5, MA50, MA200) are currently in a "Strong Buy" alignment, providing a systematic tailwind for this trade.
BTCUSD (4H) – Bearish Structure After Distribution, ConsolidatioMarket Structure:
The chart shows a clear bearish shift after the January impulsive rally.
A BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside occurred first, followed by distribution and then a CHoCH (Change of Character) to the downside, confirming loss of bullish control.
Price is now making lower highs and lower lows, respecting a descending trendline, which reinforces bearish bias.
Key Levels & Zones:
Supply / Resistance:
~93,500–94,500 (previous highs & rejection zone)
~92,000–92,500 (mitigated area / prior structure)
Current Price: ~90,574, trading below key structure and trendline.
Demand / Support:
~87,800–88,500 (FVG / demand zone)
Below that, next liquidity rests near ~85,500.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
The lower FVG remains unfilled, acting as a bearish magnet if downside continuation occurs.
Upper FVGs have mostly been mitigated, reducing bullish fuel.
Bias & Scenarios:
Primary Bias: Bearish continuation while price remains below ~92,000.
Bearish Scenario:
Consolidation → breakdown → move toward 88,500 FVG, possibly extending to 85,500.
Invalidation / Bullish Shift:
Strong reclaim and close above 92,500–93,000, breaking the descending trendline, could open continuation toward 94,500+.
Trading Insight (ICT / SMC perspective):
Favor sell-on-rallies into premium zones and trendline resistance.
Wait for lower-timeframe CHoCH confirmation for entries.
Avoid longs unless structure flips decisively.
Quantum Leap: $QTUM Continuation Pattern has triggered.The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) is showing a classic bullish continuation pattern after a spectacular 2025. Following a sharp rally, the price has been consolidating in a tight range near its 52-week high of $117.12.
The Technical Setup: We are seeing a clear consolidation phase—likely a cup and handle / or continuation inverse head and shoulders Both have the same price objective—just above the 50-day moving average ($114.36).
This 'pause' in the trend is healthy and suggests that the previous uptrend is ready to resume.
FUNDAMENTAL DRIVER:
2026 is being labeled a potential 'inflection year' for the industry.
IBM is targeting quantum advantage by the end of this year with its 120-qubit Nighthawk processor, while IonQ aims for systems up to 256 qubits.
Diversified Exposure: Unlike betting on a single stock, QTUM holds 84 different companies, spreading risk across hardware, software, and machine learning leaders like Microsoft, Alphabet, and NVIDIA.
Massive Market Growth: Analysts estimate the quantum computing market could grow from $0.8 billion in 2025 to over $1 billion in 2026, with some projections suggesting a nearly $2 trillion value creation potential by 2035.
Sustained Inflows: The ETF has seen net AUM growth of over $2.39 billion in the last year, proving that institutional capital is rotating heavily into this sector.
What's your take? Is the quantum sector ready for another parabolic move?
BTCUSDT: Consolidates Above Support, Bulls Preparing Next MoveHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT previously traded inside a well-defined range, where price moved sideways for an extended period, indicating balance and accumulation between buyers and sellers. This consolidation phase ended with a clean breakout to the upside, confirming a shift in market control toward buyers. Following the breakout, price respected a rising trend line, forming higher highs and higher lows, which validated a bullish market structure. As BTC continued higher, it reached a key Resistance Zone around 91,700, where selling pressure appeared. Price reacted from this area and pulled back, but the move remained corrective rather than impulsive. During the pullback, BTC found support at the Support Zone near 90,100, which aligns with previous breakout structure and the rising trend line. At the same time, price is trading below a descending triangle resistance line, suggesting compression and preparation for a directional move.
Currently, BTC is holding above the support zone and the ascending trend line, while consolidating below resistance. This structure suggests buyers are still defending the market, and the overall bullish bias remains intact as long as support holds.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario: as long as BTCUSDT remains above the 90,100 Support Zone and continues to respect the rising trend line, the bullish bias remains valid. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt a breakout above the 91,700 Resistance Zone, which would open the door for continuation toward higher levels.
However, a decisive breakdown below support and the trend line would weaken the bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper corrective move. Until that happens, price action favors consolidation followed by potential upside continuation.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
GBP/JPY Approaching a Critical Breakdown Zone
For GBP/JPY, the bearish outlook is conditional — it will only be valid if a specific trigger occurs. Recently, the pair has been moving within a rising sub‑channel after an extended bullish run. This type of structure often signals exhaustion of the prevailing uptrend, especially when price begins to struggle near the upper boundary.
If the lower boundary of this ascending channel is broken to the downside, it would provide a strong sell signal. More precisely, the key level to watch is 210 A confirmed break below this level would indicate a potential shift in market structure and open the door for a bearish move.
However, if price does not break below 210.04, then there is no valid bearish setup and no trade. The outlook becomes bearish only upon a clean downside break.
If the 210.04 level is broken and price stabilizes below 212.64, the bearish targets become:
• First target: 207.45
• Second target: 203.30
This analysis remains valid exclusively if the 210.04 support level is broken to the downside. Without that break, the pair remains directionless with no bearish expectation.
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