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Coffee_analysis

Not So Little Brother ? NYSE:BROS +3.85%on 05/06/24 is a powerful contender for Starbucks customers. Living in southern California, I've started seeing DutchBros popping up around town (are they any good?). One thing for sure they've gotten right is their amplified focus on delivering the best customer experience. One thing that the NASDAQ:SBUX Starbucks former CEO Howard Schultz asked his former company to refocus on. It's so good that Tiktokers started making videos poking fun at the friendly nature of the Dutchbros employees. With all of that being said, it's working for them and very well. They've opened 159 new shops in 2023, and according to Placer.AI, "While the growth of Starbucks' foot traffic has been shrinking since last year, Dutch Bros' growth in traffic has been accelerating." also, Earnest Analytics reports, Dutch Bros. accounted for 6% of U.S. consumer spending on coffee and other premium drinks. Up from 4% at the end of 2020. Last year's revenue was up about 31% This is my Strategy: Using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracement, we see increased trade volume and volatility as the price rises above the SMA and towards the upper band. The price is currently $28.34. We can expect it to reach a price target of $31.16 (test strategy here) before retracement or reversal, as the shares may be near overbought status. This will give us a $2.82 profit per share. If sold Enter at price targets: $27.33 (low) and $29.92 (max) Hold for the price to cross $32.90 for uptrend confirmation. (FYI, analyst target maintains $33.00/share) It is one of my favorite stocks, and I'll watch its performance closely this year.
NYSE:BROSLong
by eakosah
Something Brewing? NASDAQ:SBUX Has had a tough week (dropping -17.7%), topped with a demand from the former CEO Howard Schultz to shift focus from the current data-driven business model to a customer-centric business. With the above being said, I believe the coffee giant will recover amid rising competition from Dtchbros $NYSE: BROS and Dunkin Donuts $FINRA: DNKN_SHORT_VOLUME. This is my strategy: Using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracement, we see a large trade volume and volatility increase as the price drops below the SMA and lower band. The price is currently $73.11. We can expect it to reach a price target of $84.68 (test strategy here) before retracement or reversal, as the shares may be near overbought status. This will give us a nice $11.50 profit per share. Enter at price targets: $70.31 and $72.92 Hold for the price to cross $87.46 for uptrend confirmation.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by eakosah
US Coffee - Clear Buy with S/L 186; Big move aheadEntry Level: $190 Stop Loss: $186 Target: $195-$199.00 Analysis: The current entry level for initiating a short-term long position in US Coffee stands at $190. A prudent risk management strategy suggests setting a stop loss at $186 to mitigate potential losses in case of adverse price movements. The target range for this long position is set between $195 and $199.00. This target zone reflects the anticipated price movement based on technical analysis indicators and market dynamics. Traders should closely monitor price action and key support/resistance levels to assess the validity of this trading opportunity and adjust their positions accordingly.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by astroduniarp
Robusta hit the target after 2 years at $28.00I don't know about you but I prefer Arabica Coffee to Robusta. It's sweeter, it's fuller and it's not that bitter. Anyways, I sent out this trade idea in September 2021! The price broke above the Falling Wedge and there were strong signs of upside. This trade idea was a slow pace and anyone who held onto this trade, most likely would have made very little money due to the daily interest expense charges. It really does add up. And unfortunately, we traders can't treat these markets like medium to long term investors who deal with derivatives. Anyways, the target hit at $28.00 and the price looks to be consolidating here before further upside. Hopefully, a new pattern forms and we can get wired back into the trade. INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT THE ROBUSTA COFFEE COMMODITY Second Most Traded Coffee: Robusta is the second most traded type of coffee, following Arabica, in terms of global market demand and trade activity. Price Determination: Robusta coffee prices are influenced by factors such as weather conditions, crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, currency exchange rates, and geopolitical events. Use in Blends: Robusta coffee is often used in coffee blends, alongside Arabica, to provide a stronger and more full-bodied flavor profile. Coffee Exporter Revenue: Robusta coffee exports contribute to the revenue of major coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, and Uganda, driving economic activity and foreign exchange earnings.
ICEEUR:RC1!Long
by Timonrosso
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by SalahBouhmidi
1
Coffee price keeps the negativity – AnalysisCoffee price provided more negative closings by consolidating below 178.00 resistance, to start reacting to the major indicators by declining towards 159.40, expecting to continue forming negative crawl and attempt to touch 154.00, while breaking this obstacle will extend trades towards 147.10 to face the historical support that appears on the chart, assuring the importance of monitoring its behavior to manage to detect the next main trend.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by eltonmorningstar
What’s brewing with coffee futures?Like most commodities, London coffee futures saw a massive price uptrend in 2021. However, since the beginning of 2022, it's finally cooled off to an eight and half month low. As a silver lining, perhaps more interesting price action is currently heading our way. With a very sharp fall during the last two weeks of February it's since consolidated, trading between $2,000 and $2,200 per metric tonne. As of writing, London robusta coffee futures (LRC) are trading at $2,099 per metric tonne. For London coffee futures, May is typically a ranging month with price starting to pick up towards the second half of June. More often than not, highs of the year are made during the June and July months. However, seasonal trends will be butting up against the possibility that coffee prices are still overextended from 2021’s price hike. Where could coffee prices reasonably head? Looking at the daily chart with the Awesome Oscillator indicator, we can see some slight divergence. In spite of its undescriptive name, the Awesome Oscillator details trends and shifts in momentum. On the chart above, can see that the indicator is showing signs of a shifting momentum since the first week of March. With price consolidating, the indicator has slowly crept back up to its zero line, failing to keep correlation to the actual price and trend of the price chart. This could be a suggestion that price may make its way towards June and July highs. If so, the bigger question is if it will actually create the yearly high as well before making its way back down. In respect to fundamentals, it has been noted that Brazil is currently harvesting a record setting yield of robusta coffee beans. However, the risk of frost hitting Brazil’s crop might not have been priced into its current trading price. Start trading coffee futures with live and demo accounts today
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by BlackBull Markets
Up, up and away!The coffee futures have broken today the bullish flag, and this derivate on coffee follows the coffee price accordingly. Maybe in the following days, a pullback is possible, reaching 3,71 or the vicinity of the broken trendline below. According to the seasonality and inflation, I expect a general bullish trend in coffee until the end of the year. But buying this instrument and holding it until the end of the year could be difficult because of the volatility decay. Take care!
EURONEXT:3CFLLong
by p4917
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand. What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since. Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move. Certified Coffee Inventory bilderupload.org Chart
ICEUS:KC2!Long
by JordanLong
Coffee Can Become Cheaper - Reaching Reversal FCP ZoneTraders, Coffee like other commodities has been on a huge run this year. But now it has reached a point of pause, correction and possibly reversal too. So coffee futures can fall down from the FCP zone. Wait for a confirmation as the market has been trending hard upwards. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by vikinsa
4