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Bitcoin Analysis Looking Forward 10 Days1. Introduction 2. Elliott Wave Count 3. Correction 4. Conclusion 1. Introduction The problem with Elliott Wave Theory is it's extreme subjectivity. Finding an exact wave count & forecast is extremely difficult; E.W.'s are subject to error when projecting targets considering there are several different places they can eventually end. If by chance you have mastered the count as a trader you watch for the typical ending point but the move is always affected by a number of factors including volume, strength, and black swan events. In my trading career I have stayed away from using E.W.'s as a signal indicator, I typically do not rely on them for trades but lately I have been working on a way to confirm the strength & length of a wave that I will not be explaining today as it is lengthy. But, I will at some point in the near future be putting everything I am doing on E.W.'s into one single indicator & system for public sale. Until then, my analysis will factor the system in but not rely on it nor be explained. Again, Elliott Wave Theory is still subjective even with a low strike rate confirmation system. Keep in mind when using E.W.'s you must be fluid in your projection and capable of admitting you were wrong on certain variations and adjust accordingly. Also, never stop using your basic trading and analysis rules just because a wave conflicts with other data. 2. Elliott Wave Count Using the 4 hour to get an expanded view of our larger time frame moves we completed a intermediate 5 wave push as labeled. There is a larger wave taking place simultaneously that peaked impulse 3 at the same point of the intermediate wave endpoint labeled (5). Logically, this is a reversal point for those impulses and a corrective wave must be looked at. 3. Correction Based on E.W., rules the larger E.W. move has a landing place for wave 4 shown on the chart in the bluish box on the right. However, as mentioned above E.W.'s can have multiple landing points, shown there is a typical wave 4 end point based on E.W. rules. There are extended waves that can be confirmed thru logical assumptions and confirmation of other factors which I will get into. Looking at the intermediate wave that finished its 5 wave sequence, I've examined the major support levels & other factors on multiple time frames and concluded that the corrective wave shown (A)(B)(C) is the most logical path being shown. Indicator Confirmation Our first pause was directly above the 38.20% fibonacci retrace point. (Fib levels are not an exact science either FYI) What I am looking for here is for the RSI & Stochastic to cool down and reveal chop action for a while within the yellow box shown then break down to the yellow box below completing corrective wave (A). The Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) needs to correlate with price action and pull itself out of oversold conditions also. The sideways/chop action will do so & offer a bit of relief there before continuing downward. Taking a look at our volume indicators and more particularly the On Balance Volume, we see a heavy decrease in buying from that dip. On the O.B.V., sitting at the horizontal line in yellow we can trace past price action and see that price levels were not maintained at this O.B.V. level. The logical place to assume the end of wave (A) is past price levels at this point on the O.B.V. which ranges in the lowest yellow box shown where wave (A) ends. The horizontal blue line on the O.B.V. indicator is where I speculatively see the corrective wave ending due to the peak of the prior O.B.V. range. Corrective wave (B) is difficult to map out accurately. That I am leaving fluid as price action develops and wave A ends. Wave (C) took some convincing for me to place. I typically like to see a retrace point at 61.80% on the fibonacci for a satisfied correction. Matching that with the larger typical wave 4 ending point I see corrective wave 4 being a slightly extended wave with both wave 4 and the (A)(B)(C) finding an end point in the green box at the bottom. This end point would line up with E.W. rules, but also is verified through the Volume Profile (Right side) value area and prior consolidation range. 4. Conclusion Elliott Wave Theory is exactly that, a theory. Not absolute or undeniable. As with all trading strategies and indicators nothing is absolute. However, technical analysis requires you to take all data present and confirm it through multiple data sets and inputs. As I begin to explore more ways to do analysis in my trading career I find something every few years that allows me to fine tune and expand my accuracy with my analysis. I believe there is a method that is rarely used to place E.W.'s correctly. That being said, they are still subjective no matter the accuracy of placement with E.W.'s when following their data-set rules. It also requires a lot of focus and analysis to properly identify and accurately project the moves that doesn't always play out due to their subjective nature & complexity, not to mention any unpredictable events that may occur. As with any setup, there is a proper way to trade. None of the trade opportunities are detailed in this, there is more to trading than just seeing entries and exits and placing orders without considering proper entry and other factors including E.W.'s subjective nature. As the price action continues I will try my best to update publically the trades I am taking and the proper entry, stop loss, and take profit for each swing. If this plays as I have detailed and support holds, then I have several visible factors I have been searching for to confirm the bottom of our bear market and the beginning of a bull market. I will update those in a later post that is more detailed on the overview of our correction cycle. Thank you for reading and please be sure to click like on this analysis. Thank You! This is not financial advice, this is simply my personal analysis of the current conditions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Nick_Core
40
DIA Confirms Resistance Breakthrough -- Market BULLISHAs stated in a previous post regarding AMZN's breakthrough, it is necessary for the price to display a confirmation movement in order to be qualified as bullish. Looking at the circled area, it is very evident that this confirmation was made today as DIA bounced off of the previous resistance directing itself back upwards. It will take a week or two for a steady support curve to be established, but I would certainly expect bullish activity for quite some time. (Given that no major political plays come into perspective.
AMEX:DIALong
by willgeorgejr
Swing Key Levels USOIL 03/09/2018The USOIL just hit a supply level from the higher time frame (weekly). I prefer to wait for a confirmation in order to take a sell position. the support  Below is my confirmation zone, if the price will break that level it indicates the price Tends to reach the support below and even the demand at the bottom. If that happens I'll look for P"A setup for sell, my first target will be the support below, And the final target is the demand at the bottom.
TVC:USOILShort
by the5erstrading
BTC UPDATE: Massive IHS incoming?Good evening! A while ago I posted a chart stating I thought the Inverse Head and shoulder pattern is likely to fail. Well, I think I MAY have been wrong! That massive green candle is getting us closer to validation and the target. There has been some talk about an even larger one in play so I took a look. From what I see, it is definitely valid so far. If we continue this bullish strength and high volume on the pushes, it MAY play out. You could consider it a complex head and shoulders (almost has two heads.) Please see the notes created for key indicators that the pattern is valid. Remember, IHS or HS, the pattern is NOT confirmed or valid until the right shoulder completes with good volume and closes a candle above the neckline. If this is the case, it could send us all the way above 9k, right at the Fib noted. If that were the case, I imagine FOMO might kick in hard and we will test 10k again.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by infbp22
Augur VS Bitcoin Long-Term Uptrend ContinuationYesterday Augur has formed a double bottom near btc 0.0046. This is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level which has been rejected previously, back on the 29th of May. But yesterday, REP/BTC not only rejected Fib support but also the 8/1 Gann Fan trendline. Today Augur started to move up sharply, but in order to confirm the uptrend, price has to break and close above the downtrend trendline as well as the 200 Moving Average. In this case the probability of an uptrend will grow substantially which could attract a lot of buyers, thus sending price much higher. At the same time it is important to watch btc 0.0046 area, as break and close below might invalidate bullish outlook and send Augur back to btc 0.0034 support area.
RLong
by CryptoPAMM
5
higher low/higher high triggered need 1 additional higher lowWe have achieved the followup higher high after the higher low I mentioned in the last idea. It seems like btc is content on maintaining its fractal of 2014's behavior for now. We still want one additional confirmation higher low to hand control over to the bulls but I bought back in at 5890 as soon as I saw that higher low...not typically what I would normally do I would usually wait for at least a higher high before I jumped back in but it was my confidence in the fact that things were continuing to play out like 2014's bear market did that gave me the confidence we would be going up first. Keep in mind just one follow up lower low can be enough to hand the reigns back over to the bears which is why its so important to get that additional higher low after the current higher high. for the bulls I look for a higher low/higher high and then 1 more follow up higher low for confirmation of a trendshift. For the bears since they have gravity working in their favor I usually only wait for just the first lower high/lower low and don't wait for the follow up lower low. Hopefully if this price action maintains its close fractal similarities with 2014 we can make it to 9.7k or so within the next month before we see any further significant downtrend...Anything is possible though so we will have to wait and see and be prepared for all possible outcomes. Even though I'm listing this as long I won't be surprised if we soon enter a small correction, I'm just thinking it is likely that correction will form an additional higher low and continue the uptrend...hence the long. As always this is not financial advice...make your own decisions and good luck with whatever you decide.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
4
Clams Facing Massive SupportToday CLAMS has reached 11 months low, hitting $2.27 level. This is the key support level for CLAM/USD, that has been rejected for at least 4 consecutive times during the past year. During that year price has moved in cycles, producing up and down waves. If this cycle will continue the next wave could be starting shortly and confirmation of that could be the break above the descending channel.  At this stage price could either start to consolidate, move slightly lower, potentially to test $2 psychological support, or start a sharp rise. But it is certainly an interesting timing for CLAMS, and if support are will hold and price will stay above the $2, price might go up towards the previous support level at $13 area.
CLong
by CryptoPAMM
Bitcoin... Bearish Outlook Still, Educational Analysis Inside.Again for all the Bulls out there, I applaud you for the optimism but CONFIRMATION is CONFIRMATION. My confirmation of this bearish trend reversal is the Daily Ichimoku cloud break. (Senkou Span B or Lead 2 seen below) Daily (below) with Ichimoku, 50 & 200 MA. As can be seen we rest on the Senkou Span A (Lead 1) which has also wicked off of the Base Line in pink. (Kijun-sen) Volume is less then convincing on the Daily and the more we test this area the more we are likely to break below . There are no Volume divergences showing on the daily and the sell off generally matches on smaller time frames. The only way we pick up into the cloud is if the Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume ( See past posts by me for tutorials on how to use them ) show a heavy increase matching the prior rallies into the daily Kumo. It is entirely possible but Technical Analysis requires you to use the data in front of you. Watch for a Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume increase on the 4 hour and above to spot a daily increase early. The 12 Hour below shows a Bearish TK cross on the Ichi that happened around 41 hours ago. The daily 50 & 200 Moving averages crossed Bearish March 30th on the daily. The 12 Hour has crossed back and forth but are beginning to merge closer yet again for a bearish move. However these are extremely lagging in relation to Bitcoin's movement and I expect a drop to transpire before that takes place as usual. The 6 Hour below shows us a semi formed Bearish continuation pattern, Volume has had a slight uptick but needs more to pull out. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index still have some room to drop. The 4 Hour below. One thing I have noted personally is we wicked off the 4 Hour Conversion line (Tenkan-sen) in orange when the market became semi overbought. I say overbought because there was no real volume to match the slight rally. (Perfect spot if you were watching to set a short position.) On the Hourly below everything generally matches as far as divergences go, The Stochastic shows a slight variance but nothing noteworthy. Buy pressure is picking up on the Chaikin Money Flow so I do see it entirely possible that we touch the top of our triangle which sets up a entry for a short. Conclusion I base my entries and trends off of confirmation, many traders take one indicator and use that as their confirmation, my ultimate confirmation as mentioned above is the daily Senkou Span B or Lead 2 break. From there we have very little stopping us. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD I am looking for a break down from our current price of $8,270 to $8,150 and then down to stronger support at $8,000. We sit right at a key level that needs to hold, once those targets are reached I will reassess my current positions and see if there are any short term Bullish movements. Until then I remain Bearish and if we break down below above mentioned support then I expect a retest of $6,500 fairly quick. Since I have been riding this position for a bit my take profit is set at the top of the triangle at $8375 in case we break bullish. ALWAYS USE STOPS AND TAKE PROFIT ORDERS. Slap a like and follow on this for me even if you don't agree. :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Nick_Core
71
GDOW: Global Dow Step UpGDOW Global Dow (USD) Step Up The Dow Global has made a similar pattern to the Dow itself with a double bottom at 2970, the second bottom picking up the longer term parallel. Since then it's got itself trapped within the same triangle formation we see on the Dow, still using the lower parallel as ultimate support on down-side tests.Whilst it continues to do so the longer term trend remains in tact. This index has behaved in text-book fashion as the great rally progresses, with each decline being arrested by the previous high, and moving North in a series of steady steps. The next big test comes on the next touch of the falling dynamic (which defines the upper boundary of the triangle formation). At some point soon this challenge will arrive - even if it gets rejected again one more time this rejection is likely to be the last and should be short lived if we do see it happen first. Once it does so it should rally with all world markets to 3109 and consolidate there awhile. A break above 3110 would in turn be the next near term bull signal for world markets in general, opening the way for a rally back to the ATH at 3322. This has, so far at least, been a very reliable confirming back-up signal for other major markets across the globe. When it breaks higher it's therefore the confirming signal to get long of your local market too. We're looking at a 10% average rally across all major stock markets when it triggers. Yours might do even better ... Be lucky.
GLong
by sumastardon
1