Nick_Core
Short

Bitcoin Analysis Looking Forward 10 Days

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1. Introduction
2. Elliott Wave Count
3. Correction
4. Conclusion


1. Introduction


The problem with Elliott Wave Theory is it's extreme subjectivity. Finding an exact wave count & forecast is extremely difficult; E.W.'s are subject to error when projecting targets considering there are several different places they can eventually end. If by chance you have mastered the count as a trader you watch for the typical ending point but the move is always affected by a number of factors including volume , strength, and black swan events.

In my trading career I have stayed away from using E.W.'s as a signal indicator, I typically do not rely on them for trades but lately I have been working on a way to confirm the strength & length of a wave that I will not be explaining today as it is lengthy. But, I will at some point in the near future be putting everything I am doing on E.W.'s into one single indicator & system for public sale. Until then, my analysis will factor the system in but not rely on it nor be explained. Again, Elliott Wave Theory is still subjective even with a low strike rate confirmation system.

Keep in mind when using E.W.'s you must be fluid in your projection and capable of admitting you were wrong on certain variations and adjust accordingly. Also, never stop using your basic trading and analysis rules just because a wave conflicts with other data.

2. Elliott Wave Count

Using the 4 hour to get an expanded view of our larger time frame moves we completed a intermediate 5 wave push as labeled. There is a larger wave taking place simultaneously that peaked impulse 3 at the same point of the intermediate wave endpoint labeled (5). Logically, this is a reversal point for those impulses and a corrective wave must be looked at.

3. Correction

Based on E.W., rules the larger E.W. move has a landing place for wave 4 shown on the chart in the bluish box on the right. However, as mentioned above E.W.'s can have multiple landing points, shown there is a typical wave 4 end point based on E.W. rules. There are extended waves that can be confirmed thru logical assumptions and confirmation of other factors which I will get into.

Looking at the intermediate wave that finished its 5 wave sequence, I've examined the major support levels & other factors on multiple time frames and concluded that the corrective wave shown (A)(B)(C) is the most logical path being shown.

Indicator Confirmation

Our first pause was directly above the 38.20% fibonacci retrace point. (Fib levels are not an exact science either FYI) What I am looking for here is for the RSI & Stochastic to cool down and reveal chop action for a while within the yellow box shown then break down to the yellow box below completing corrective wave (A).


The Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) needs to correlate with price action and pull itself out of oversold conditions also. The sideways/chop action will do so & offer a bit of relief there before continuing downward.


Taking a look at our volume indicators and more particularly the On Balance Volume , we see a heavy decrease in buying from that dip.

On the O.B.V., sitting at the horizontal line in yellow we can trace past price action and see that price levels were not maintained at this O.B.V. level. The logical place to assume the end of wave (A) is past price levels at this point on the O.B.V. which ranges in the lowest yellow box shown where wave (A) ends.

The horizontal blue line on the O.B.V. indicator is where I speculatively see the corrective wave ending due to the peak of the prior O.B.V. range.



Corrective wave (B) is difficult to map out accurately. That I am leaving fluid as price action develops and wave A ends.

Wave (C) took some convincing for me to place. I typically like to see a retrace point at 61.80% on the fibonacci for a satisfied correction. Matching that with the larger typical wave 4 ending point I see corrective wave 4 being a slightly extended wave with both wave 4 and the (A)(B)(C) finding an end point in the green box at the bottom.


This end point would line up with E.W. rules, but also is verified through the Volume Profile (Right side) value area and prior consolidation range.


4. Conclusion

Elliott Wave Theory is exactly that, a theory. Not absolute or undeniable.

As with all trading strategies and indicators nothing is absolute. However, technical analysis requires you to take all data present and confirm it through multiple data sets and inputs. As I begin to explore more ways to do analysis in my trading career I find something every few years that allows me to fine tune and expand my accuracy with my analysis.

I believe there is a method that is rarely used to place E.W.'s correctly. That being said, they are still subjective no matter the accuracy of placement with E.W.'s when following their data-set rules. It also requires a lot of focus and analysis to properly identify and accurately project the moves that doesn't always play out due to their subjective nature & complexity, not to mention any unpredictable events that may occur.

As with any setup, there is a proper way to trade. None of the trade opportunities are detailed in this, there is more to trading than just seeing entries and exits and placing orders without considering proper entry and other factors including E.W.'s subjective nature. As the price action continues I will try my best to update publically the trades I am taking and the proper entry, stop loss, and take profit for each swing.

If this plays as I have detailed and support holds, then I have several visible factors I have been searching for to confirm the bottom of our bear market and the beginning of a bull market. I will update those in a later post that is more detailed on the overview of our correction cycle.

Thank you for reading and please be sure to click like on this analysis. Thank You!

This is not financial advice, this is simply my personal analysis of the current conditions.
Comment: Updated. Dropped faster with very little chop. Will update this more as price action transpires.
Comment: Dropping uncontrollably right now. Waiting for a long setup since this is clearly oversold.
Trade active: Quick scalp. Not the most confident trade, but clearly oversold. I typically use high leverage for positions like this.
Trade closed manually:
All posts are for educational purposes and are simply my views of markets conditions. At no point should you act or trade upon my posts or https://www.thetradingwizard.com

Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.
Yep- can't move sideways near support. Unwise.

Updates posted in my BTC analysis. Sitting right at the edge of demand zone:
Reply
Nice trade...as far as Elliot Wave goes to me that move up before the fall is more likely corrective than a bunch of 1-2's since it channels well and lacks the proper neely extensions i.e. the biggest wave should be at least 1.618 the next biggest out of the 3 legs up. This is how I would have counted it as well but as i learn more about the neely method and how time/failures should be considered in my analysis this makes more sense to me:

Anyway, the more I learn about Elliot wave theory the better I get but i totally agree that it should not be taken religiously (as is the case with pretty much any analysis in it of itself).
Reply
Excellent chart Nick, we have a similar bearish outlook. We have predicted this near 7,500 rejection based on the 0.500 Fibonacci rejection on the previous two 1W Lower Highs. The maximum it can rise to is 6,800, where it should attract more sellers. We are looking for below 6,000 at the moment:

Reply
@Nick_Core How would you best identifiy opportunities to trade the small pull backs during these downward stretches? Are you looking for higher lows on the bigger timeframes (2h,4h or so?), or how would you do it, if you do it art all? So far I havent been able to come out ahead by trying to trade these small retraces , feels really tough :/ Do you happen to have any advice? :)
Reply
working same as i predicted see my both analysis






Reply
I had an alternative count but we both agree this is going downnnn


Reply
Right, but more like fast forward 8 hours!
+1 Reply
Call from yesterday

Reply
Thanks bro for your chart, you can reveal my idea because we have same viewpoint, my chart is update:
+1 Reply
xuanhaimmoer xuanhaimmoer
Last my chart:
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Help Center Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing TradingView Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out