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$BTC.D (1-hour): rectangle BREAKOUT attempt, late longs deadOn the HOURLY chart, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance has been trying to break out above the highlighted RECTANGLE pattern (which basically is a range with two horizontal boundaries). If succesful, the target would be exactly 60% Bitcoin dominance. That's why the altcoins are taking a hit so far this weekend. Best case scenario (for the alts) is a rejection here, without a single candle close above 59.30%. We really want this forming TRIPLE TOP (also refer to my previous post, the 4-hr chart) to be established as that would most likely trigger further downside, towards the main support zone (58.6 - 58.85% range). Yet again, this is a WAVE 5 impulse move, targets still haven't hit (59.6% and 60.3% based on Elliot's Wave Theory), so the responsible thing to do before taking any more exposure to alts would be to wait for this last WAVE to complete, or at least wait for a BEARISH market structure shift (as in, for the BTC.D to put in a lower low: below the support zone, <58.6%). So far, the breakout is looking a bit suspect, which is good and let's hope it fails miserably (unless you are BTC Maxi). Today and tommorow, I'm working on best set-ups for the upcoming week, a lot of coins look ready to fly, it is ALL about the selection from now on, so choose wisely. Another pro-tip is to watch reactions of coins today during correction, the ones that are holding the strongest will likely outperform the market on the next swing high💙👽
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ColdBloodedCharter
NG1!: Will Go Up! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse NG1! together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3.332 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3.357.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
RUS:NG1!Long
by FreeXauusdSignals
GBPUSD | 4HGBP/USD – Wedge Pattern Analysis | GreenfireForex The GBP/USD (1H timeframe) is currently forming a contracting wedge pattern (A–B–C–D–E), indicating potential price compression before a decisive breakout. 🔹 Key Observations: The pair is completing wave E, touching the upper wedge resistance. Price is expected to face selling pressure near the resistance line, forming a short-term corrective move. A breakout below the wedge could open a move toward the 1.34200–1.33500 demand zone. However, if buyers defend support, we may see another push back toward 1.35000 before reversal. 📊 Structure Breakdown: A–C–E → Lower highs (trendline resistance) B–D → Higher lows (trendline support) Possible continuation: ABCDE → Breakout Blue zones mark potential liquidity areas and entry/exit zones. ⚡ Trading Outlook: Watch for confirmation candles near the E point before positioning. A clean breakout with volume will confirm the next major move. 🧠 Pattern type: Falling wedge (potential bullish reversal) 🕓 Timeframe: 1H 💰 Instrument: GBP/USD
by Greenfireforex
2
TradersCity Pro | Solana Bulls Eye Breakout Beyond Resistance👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! In this analysis, I’ll be breaking down Solana (SOL),one of the most popular “Ethereum Killer” projects, currently ranked #6 on CoinMarketCap with a market cap of $122.87B. ⌛️ 4-Hour Timeframe On the 4-hour chart, Solana started a bullish move after being supported at the $194 zone. Once it broke the trigger at $213.14, it rallied strongly toward the next resistance zone I’ve marked on the chart. ✨ At the moment, that bullish wave has cooled off. The RSI has exited the overbought zone, and price has been rejected from the resistance ceiling. ✔️ The next bullish trigger we’re watching will be a clean breakout of this resistance zone. On future retests, we can identify the exact resistance level more precisely and use it as an actionable entry trigger. ⭐ The main resistance for SOL is at $248.58. A breakout here would confirm the start of a larger bullish wave in the higher cycles. That’s why it’s important to already have a position before this breakout—so if the level flips, you’re not left behind and your earlier long runs into solid profit. 🔍 If price pulls back, the outlook remains bullish as long as SOL stays above $213.14. In that case, I see more probability for the next bullish leg than for a trend reversal. 📊 However, if $213.14 breaks and price consolidates below it, that would be the first confirmation of a bearish shift and a possible trend reversal. 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
1
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS-DXY, BTC,ETH, NAS100,SPX,XAU,XAGThis weekend's analysis will cover the Dollar Index, Bitcoin, Ethereum, NAS100, SPX500, Gold and Silver. The DXY has found a strong support on both the monthly and daily charts. DXY has officially also broken it's weekly closing resistance level and I think a shift in momentum will propel DXY up higher in the next week towards a target zone of 99 to 99.600. Bitcoin is still in a correction and currently paused on the weekly 21 EMA, I think it's consolidating sideways and will continue selling to the intended target of $102k in the coming week. ETH nicely came to the previous resistance and seems to find some buyers there but there is no momentum or RSI strength to support an upward move, so I am bearish on ETH and think the price will fall some more into the target zone below $3,823. NAS100 and SPX500 are also looking quite over stretch on it's Bollinger Bands and KC channels on the weekly charts, with weekly bearish candles suggesting a pullback in the equities is very likely in the next coming week. Gold and Silver are in a strong uptrend and the uptrend will continue but I see profit taking on the charts. I expect some sideways consolidation and a minor pullback before the bullish continuation. I thank you for listening to my publications and I wish you a great trading week. Cheers everybody!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 669.20 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 663.47 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD Massive Short! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1741 Bias - Bearish Safe Stop Loss - 1.1749 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 1.1727 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Bulls are back on $OPEN Bulls are back on NASDAQ:OPEN 📈 Bullish breakout and potential trend reversal ✅ Expecting further upside as price targets the previous large gap. Local support: 0.5350$ (weak) Trend context (H1): Uptrend Additional levels I’m watching: • 0.4950 - golden pocket • 0.4800 • 0.4570 - 0.786 fib Bulls could push higher from here, but the current price is neutral. Short term play: Likely bearish correctio, before the next real move! Bull setup to be monitored. Safe play: Keep an eye on the 0.4800 -0.4700$ demand zone for bulls!
by Cryptojobs
$BTC.D (4-hour): TRIPLE TOP possibility mixed with BEAR RSI divsI haven't posted the most important crypto ticker for the altseason in a few days, which I consider #BTC.D , so here we go. The DAILY is still bullish with a falling wedge breakout (looking a bit weak already) targetting 62%, so I will simply look into shorter timeframes, 4-hr first. First of all, the HEAD & SHOULDERS pattern is NOT text-book anymore, some traders wouldn't even call it H&S due to the right shoulder being nearly as high as the head. That doesn't matter to me, these are just names, what really matters that the UPTREND has been in trouble. We're still seeing higher lows but, unless we close a strong candle above the two previous highs (59.3%+ is required), there is a great chance of a TRIPLE TOP. Triple top in confluence with persisting RSI momentum divergences, two in a row in the making, which is basically a confirmation of dying momentum. Still, this is WAVE 5 (the current wave upwards) and these can extend and overextend. Hopefully not, for the sake of our coins. Too early to call for the CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance chart to crash, but the ingredient are definitely ready. Breaking below 58.6% would be huge, to cross below the (light-blue zone) support zone and to make a lower low. That's when I will open quite a few longs on altcoins. HOURLY timeframe analysis - next post💙👽
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ColdBloodedCharter
15
Let Bitcoin make a new ATHHi traders, My outlook on Bitcoin last week was wrong and I'm the first to admit it. I can't be 100% right. So we move on to the next possibility. Last week Bitcoin went up very impulsive from out of nowhere due to fundamental news. Now let price make a new ATH and wait for the (corrective or impulsive) move down to take a trade. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Let price make a new ATH and wait for the (corrective or impulsive) move down to take a trade bullish or bearish. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
by EduwaveTrading
1
Still going up for goldHi traders, Last week my outlook on gold was wrong. It turned out that gold was slowly going up some more. Now it finished another correction down and rejected from the Daily bullish FVG so next week we could see more upside again. Let's see what price does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish and trade longs again. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
GER40 (DAX40) Technical Analysis & Trading OutlookCurrent Price: 23,397.40 | 4th October 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 📊 MARKET OVERVIEW & STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS The DAX40 is trading near all-time highs, displaying robust bullish momentum following the breakout above 23,000. The index is currently in a consolidation phase after an extended rally, suggesting potential for either continuation or a corrective pullback. Key Market Context: Trend Structure: Primary uptrend intact across all major timeframes Market Phase: Late-stage expansion with decreasing momentum divergence Volatility: Moderate; Bollinger Bands showing compression on 4H/Daily charts Volume Profile: Declining volume on recent highs suggests potential exhaustion 🎯 MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS MONTHLY CHART - Long-term Perspective Elliott Wave Count: Currently in Wave 5 of a larger impulse structure from 2022 lows Gann Analysis: Price approaching the 1x2 Gann angle from the 2022 pivot; resistance expected at 23,450-23,500 Ichimoku Cloud: Trading well above the Kumo; Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen bullish crossover sustained Key Support: 22,800 (monthly pivot) | 22,400 (cloud base) Key Resistance: 23,500 (Gann resistance) | 23,850 (Wave 5 projection target) WEEKLY CHART - Swing Trading Perspective Pattern Recognition: Potential Bull Flag formation developing (consolidation after strong rally) Wyckoff Analysis: Phase D (markup) transitioning to possible Phase E (redistribution) RSI: 67.2 - approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme VWAP (Anchored from Jan 2025): 22,950 - price trading above, bullish bias confirmed Volume Analysis: Decreasing volume on upswings suggests weakening buying pressure DAILY CHART - Swing & Position Trading Harmonic Pattern: Potential Bat Pattern completion zone: 23,450-23,550 (PRZ) Head & Shoulders Watch: No clear reversal pattern yet, but right shoulder formation risk if rejection occurs above 23,500 Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band (23,420); squeeze pattern suggests breakout/breakdown imminent Moving Averages: 20 EMA: 23,280 (immediate support) 50 EMA: 23,050 (critical support) 200 SMA: 22,400 (long-term trend support) RSI: 64.8 - neutral to slightly overbought MACD: Bullish but histogram showing declining momentum 4-HOUR CHART - Intraday/Swing Bridge Trend: Short-term consolidation within ascending channel Ichimoku: Price above cloud; flat Kijun-sen at 23,350 = pivot zone VWAP: 23,365 - current price trading slightly above, marginally bullish Support Levels: 23,350 | 23,280 | 23,200 Resistance Levels: 23,450 | 23,520 | 23,600 Pattern: Ascending Triangle forming between 23,280 support and 23,450 resistance 1-HOUR CHART - Intraday Focus Candlestick Pattern: Indecision candles (doji/spinning tops) suggesting hesitation RSI: 58.4 - neutral zone Bollinger Bands: Mid-band at 23,370; price oscillating around mean Volume: Below average - lack of conviction Gann Square of 9: Next resistance at 23,445 (45° from current pivot) 15-MINUTE & 5-MINUTE CHARTS - Scalping Micro Structure: Range-bound between 23,370-23,420 VWAP: Acting as dynamic support/resistance at 23,385 Volume Spikes: Watch for breakout confirmation with volume >120% of 20-period average RSI (15M): Oscillating between 45-60 (neutral range) 🔍 CRITICAL TECHNICAL SIGNALS Bullish Indicators: ✅ Price above all major moving averages (20/50/200 EMA) ✅ Ichimoku Cloud bullish alignment across all timeframes ✅ Higher lows pattern maintained since September ✅ Golden Cross intact (50 EMA > 200 EMA) ✅ Volume-weighted averages showing institutional support Bearish Warning Signs: ⚠️ Declining volume on rallies (distribution concern) ⚠️ RSI bearish divergence forming on 4H/Daily charts ⚠️ Approaching Gann resistance and harmonic PRZ ⚠️ MACD histogram declining (momentum weakening) ⚠️ Potential Bull Trap risk if rejection occurs above 23,450 Neutral/Watch Factors: 🔶 Bollinger Band squeeze on daily chart (breakout pending) 🔶 Wyckoff redistribution signs require confirmation 🔶 No clear Head & Shoulders pattern yet (monitoring right shoulder) 📈 INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGY (Next 5 Trading Days) SCENARIO A: BULLISH BREAKOUT (Probability: 45%) Trigger: Break and hold above 23,450 with volume confirmation Entry Points: Aggressive: 23,455 (immediate breakout) Conservative: 23,470 (retest of breakout level) Targets: T1: 23,520 (short-term resistance) T2: 23,600 (Gann 1x1 angle) T3: 23,750 (measured move from triangle) Stop Loss: Below 23,350 (4H Kijun-sen) Time Frames: 5M, 15M, 1H entries | Hold 4H-Daily for swing Risk:Reward: Minimum 1:2.5 SCENARIO B: RANGE-BOUND CONSOLIDATION (Probability: 35%) Range: 23,280 - 23,450 Long Entries: 23,280-23,300 (lower range support + 20 EMA) 23,350-23,365 (4H pivot + VWAP) Short Entries: 23,430-23,450 (upper range resistance) 23,520-23,535 (false breakout rejection) Targets: Range midpoint: 23,365 Opposite range boundary Stop Loss: Longs: Below 23,250 (range invalidation) Shorts: Above 23,480 (breakout confirmed) Strategy: Mean reversion scalping on 15M/1H charts SCENARIO C: BEARISH CORRECTION (Probability: 20%) Trigger: Break and close below 23,280 (20 EMA + ascending trendline) Short Entry Points: Aggressive: 23,275 (break confirmation) Conservative: 23,300 (retest as resistance) Targets: T1: 23,200 (minor support) T2: 23,050 (50 EMA + psychological level) T3: 22,900 (weekly VWAP + gap fill) Stop Loss: Above 23,370 (failed breakdown) Confirmation Signals: RSI breaking below 50 MACD bearish crossover on 1H/4H Volume surge on breakdown 📊 SWING TRADING STRATEGY (1-4 Weeks Outlook) BULLISH SWING SCENARIO Entry Zone: 23,200-23,280 (pullback to 20 EMA support) Position Sizing: Build in 3 tranches 40% at 23,280 30% at 23,200 30% at 23,050 (if deeper correction) Targets: T1: 23,750 (Elliott Wave 5 target - partial profit 40%) T2: 23,950 (Measured move + Gann extension - 30%) T3: 24,200 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension - runner 30%) Stop Loss: Below 22,950 (daily close basis) Hold Duration: 2-4 weeks Ideal Setup: Bullish engulfing candle on daily chart at support RSI bounce from 40-45 zone Volume increase on bounce BEARISH SWING SCENARIO (Hedge/Counter-trend) Entry Zone: 23,480-23,550 (harmonic PRZ + Gann resistance) Confirmation Required: Bearish reversal candlestick (shooting star, evening star) RSI bearish divergence MACD bearish crossover on daily chart Break below 23,350 on closing basis Targets: T1: 23,050 (50 EMA - 40% cover) T2: 22,800 (monthly pivot - 35% cover) T3: 22,400 (200 SMA + cloud base - final 25%) Stop Loss: Above 23,650 (daily close) Risk Management: Tight stops; favor bullish bias unless clear reversal ⚡ ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS Current Count: Primary Wave: Wave 5 of larger impulse from 2022 lows Intermediate Wave: Subwave 5 of Wave 5 (terminal phase) Minor Wave: Possible wave (iv) consolidation completing Wave Projections: Wave 5 Target (Equal legs): 23,750-23,800 Wave 5 Target (1.618 extension): 24,150-24,250 Corrective Wave A Target (if reversal): 22,800-22,900 Wave C Target (full correction): 22,200-22,400 Key Insights: Wave structure suggests uptrend continuation likely Terminal wave characteristics: decreasing momentum, longer time Watch for five-wave completion signals near 23,750-24,000 zone 🔮 GANN ANALYSIS Square of 9 (from 23,000 pivot): 45° Resistance: 23,445 ⚠️ (approaching) 90° Resistance: 23,667 180° Major Resistance: 24,000 (psychological confluence) 45° Support: 23,111 90° Support: 22,889 Gann Angles (from September 2024 low): 1x1 Angle: Currently at 23,580 (equilibrium) 1x2 Angle: 23,450 (major resistance) ⚠️ 2x1 Angle: 23,100 (support) Time Cycles: Next significant Gann time window: October 8-10, 2025 (21 trading days from last pivot) Potential reversal/acceleration zone Price & Time Squaring: Price at 23,400 squares with October 7th time projection Suggests potential turning point early next week 🌊 ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO ANALYSIS Current Status (Daily Chart): Tenkan-sen (Conversion): 23,350 (flat = consolidation) Kijun-sen (Base): 23,280 (critical support) Senkou Span A: 23,100 Senkou Span B: 22,850 Chikou Span: Above price (bullish confirmation) Cloud Analysis: Price well above cloud = Strong Bull Trend Cloud thickness = robust support structure Future cloud (26 periods ahead) shows slight thinning = potential volatility increase Key Signals: TK Cross: Tenkan approaching Kijun from above (watch for bearish cross) Price vs Kijun: Trading above = bullish, but proximity suggests correction risk Chikou Span: Clear of price = trend continuation likely Ichimoku Trading Signals: Buy Signal: Pullback to 23,280-23,300 (Kijun support) with bullish rejection Sell Signal: Daily close below Kijun (23,280) with bearish TK cross Strongest Support: Cloud base at 22,850-23,100 📉 WYCKOFF MARKET CYCLE ANALYSIS Current Phase Assessment: Late Phase D (Markup) / Early Phase E Watch Characteristics Observed: Accumulation (Complete): Built solid base 22,000-22,500 (July-August) Markup Phase D: Strong advance from 22,500 to 23,400 (September-October) Distribution Signs (Emerging): Declining volume on rallies Buying Climax (BC) potential near 23,500 Automatic Reaction (AR) risk if sharp rejection occurs Secondary Test (ST) of supply likely Wyckoff Price Levels: Creek: 22,900-23,000 (major demand zone) Spring Potential: 23,480-23,550 (if false breakout occurs) Sign of Weakness (SOW): Break below 23,200 would signal distribution Trading Implications: If Markup Continues: Target 23,750-24,000 (Phase E) If Distribution Begins: First support 23,000-23,050, major 22,800 Volume Confirmation Critical: Breakouts require 30%+ above average volume Composite Operator Behavior: Likely testing supply at current levels Watch for shake-out below 23,280 to trap weak longs Absorption of supply above 23,450 needed for continuation 🎪 HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS Active Pattern: Potential Bat Pattern Completion Pattern Structure: X: 22,450 (September low) A: 23,150 (interim high) B: 22,850 (retracement) C: 23,350 (rally) D (PRZ): 23,450-23,550 (reversal zone) ⚠️ Fibonacci Ratios: AB: 0.382-0.500 retracement of XA ✓ BC: 0.382-0.886 retracement of AB ✓ CD: 1.618-2.618 extension of BC (target: 23,480-23,550) XD: 0.886 retracement of XA (23,520) ⚠️ Trading Strategy: Bearish Reversal Zone: 23,450-23,550 Entry: Short on bearish reversal confirmation in PRZ Targets (if pattern activates): 38.2% CD: 23,200 61.8% CD: 22,950 100% CD: 22,650 Stop Loss: Above 23,600 (pattern invalidation) Alternative Patterns: Bullish Butterfly target at 23,750 if breakout sustains above 23,550 Gartley Pattern support at 23,050 on any correction 📊 INDICATOR SYNTHESIS RSI (Relative Strength Index): Daily: 64.8 (neutral/slightly overbought) 4H: 61.2 (neutral) 1H: 58.4 (neutral) Divergence: Bearish divergence forming on 4H/Daily (price higher highs, RSI lower highs) ⚠️ Key Levels: Overbought: >70 (not yet extreme) Oversold: <30 (correction target) Support: 50 level = trend strength gauge Bollinger Bands: Daily: Squeeze pattern (low volatility = breakout imminent) 4H: Price at upper band (23,420) = short-term extended Bandwidth: Narrowing significantly = explosive move coming (direction TBD) Strategy: Wait for band break + close outside, then enter in direction of break VWAP Analysis: Session VWAP: 23,385 (dynamic pivot) Weekly VWAP: 23,290 (critical support) Anchored VWAP (Jan 2025): 22,950 (major support) Volume Profile: Highest volume node at 23,300-23,350 (strong support/resistance flip zone) Moving Average Confluence: 20 EMA: 23,280 (immediate support) 50 EMA: 23,050 (medium-term support) 200 SMA: 22,400 (long-term trend) Alignment: Bullish across all timeframes Golden Cross: Active since August 2024 (50>200) = long-term bullish MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Daily: Bullish, but histogram declining (momentum loss) 4H: Approaching zero line (neutral) Signal: Watch for bearish crossover on 4H as early reversal warning Divergence: Confirming RSI bearish divergence on daily chart 🚨 TRAP IDENTIFICATION & AVOIDANCE BULL TRAP Risk (HIGH ALERT): ⚠️⚠️⚠️ Scenario: False breakout above 23,450-23,500 followed by sharp reversal Warning Signs: Breakout with declining volume (no conviction) Quick spike to 23,500-23,550 with long upper wicks Inability to hold above 23,450 for more than 2 hours (1H chart) RSI divergence + MACD histogram declining Break below 23,350 after failed breakout Protection Strategy: Wait for retest of breakout level before entering longs Require volume confirmation (>120% of 20-period average) Set tight stops below 23,380 if entering on breakout Reduce position size by 50% if entering in potential trap zone Bull Trap Target (if triggered): 23,000-23,050 (trap participants' stops) BEAR TRAP Risk (LOW-MODERATE): Scenario: False breakdown below 23,280 followed by sharp recovery Warning Signs: Break on low volume Quick recovery above 23,280 within 1-2 candles Strong bullish reversal candlestick at support RSI showing bullish divergence at lower levels Protection Strategy: Wait for daily close below 23,250 before aggressive shorts Watch for volume confirmation on breakdown Be ready to cover shorts if price reclaims 23,300 quickly Don't short against major support zones without confirmation 🌍 MARKET CONTEXT & EXTERNAL FACTORS Macroeconomic Considerations: ECB Policy: Dovish stance supporting equity markets German Economy: Manufacturing PMI showing signs of stabilization EUR/USD: Correlation with DAX; watch 1.08-1.10 zone US Markets: S&P 500 correlation strong; US data impacts DAX sentiment Geopolitical: Middle East tensions = safe-haven flows (moderate risk) Earnings Season: German corporate earnings (October) = potential volatility catalyst DAX constituent reporting: watch for sector rotation Seasonal Patterns: October historically volatile for European indices End-of-month portfolio rebalancing (October 31st) = potential volatility Volatility Indicators: VDAX (DAX volatility): Currently moderate ~15-16 Complacency risk if volatility spikes above 18 🎯 COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN INTRADAY TRADERS (5M - 1H Charts): Monday-Wednesday Outlook: Primary Strategy: Range trading between 23,280-23,450 Scalp Zones: Buy: 23,300-23,320 | Target: 23,380-23,400 | Stop: 23,275 Sell: 23,430-23,450 | Target: 23,370-23,350 | Stop: 23,475 Thursday-Friday Outlook: Breakout Watch: Decision time for triangle pattern If Bullish: Long 23,460+ | Target: 23,550 | Trail stop If Bearish: Short <23,270 | Target: 23,150 | Stop: 23,320 Risk Management: Maximum 1% risk per trade 2:1 minimum risk:reward No more than 3 active positions simultaneously Daily loss limit: 2% of account SWING TRADERS (4H - Daily Charts): PRIMARY SETUP: Buy the Dip Entry Zone: 23,200-23,280 (expect pullback next week) Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or hammer on daily chart Position Size: 2-3% risk per trade Targets: 23,750 (T1) | 24,000 (T2) | 24,250 (T3) Stop Loss: 22,950 (daily close basis) Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks SECONDARY SETUP: Breakout Long Entry: Break and hold above 23,480 (daily close) Confirmation: Volume >1.5x average + consecutive closes above Targets: 23,750 | 24,000 | 24,300 Stop Loss: 23,350 Hold: Trail stop to 20 EMA on daily chart HEDGE SETUP: Short from Resistance Entry: 23,500-23,550 with reversal confirmation Confirmation: Shooting star + RSI divergence + MACD cross Targets: 23,200 | 23,050 | 22,800 Stop Loss: 23,650 (strict) Position Size: 50% of normal (counter-trend) POSITION TRADERS (Weekly - Monthly Charts): Long-Term Bullish Thesis: Entry Strategy: Accumulate on corrections to 23,000-23,200 Core Position: Build over 2-3 weeks Targets: 24,000 (3-month target) 24,500 (6-month target) 25,000 (12-month psychological) Stop Loss: Weekly close below 22,600 Rationale: Elliott Wave 5 completion + breakout from multi-year consolidation Portfolio Allocation: 60% long exposure at current levels 20% cash for pullback buying 20% hedges if approaching 23,800-24,000 zone 🔔 ALERT LEVELS & NOTIFICATIONS Critical Price Alerts to Set: ✅ 23,480 (Breakout level - LONG signal) ✅ 23,450 (Harmonic PRZ - Watch for reversal) ✅ 23,350 (4H support - Breakdown warning) ✅ 23,280 (Daily 20 EMA - CRITICAL support) ✅ 23,200 (Buy zone activation) ✅ 23,050 (50 EMA - Major support test) ✅ 22,950 (Stop loss trigger for swings) Indicator Alerts: RSI crossing 70 (overbought) or 50 (weakness) MACD bearish crossover on 4H/Daily Bollinger Band break (either direction) Volume spike >150% of average 📌 CONCLUSION & BIAS Overall Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH 🟢 (60% probability) Bullish Case (60%): The primary trend remains intact with price above all major moving averages and strong cloud support. The consolidation near highs is healthy, and a resolution to the upside targeting 23,750-24,000 is the path of least resistance. Elliott Wave structure suggests one more push higher to complete Wave 5. Bearish Case (20%): Declining volume, RSI divergence, and approach of major resistance (Gann, harmonic PRZ) suggest caution. A failed breakout above 23,500 could trigger a correction to 23,000-22,800. Wyckoff distribution signs require monitoring. Neutral/Range Case (20%): Continued consolidation between 23,200-23,500 for 1-2 weeks is possible as the market digests recent gains and awaits economic catalysts. Best Trading Approach: Intraday: Range trade 23,280-23,450 until breakout Swing: Wait for pullback to 23,200-23,280 for optimal risk:reward longs Position: Maintain core long exposure with stops below 22,800 Key Success Factors: Patience: Wait for high-probability setups at defined levels Discipline: Honor stop losses without exception Flexibility: Adapt to price action; market is always right Confirmation: Require volume and indicator alignment before major trades 🎓 FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS For Aggressive Traders: Trade both sides of the range Quick profits (50-100 points) Tight stops (50-80 points) High frequency (5-10 trades/week) For Conservative Traders: Wait for 23,200-23,280 pullback Larger position size with better risk:reward Wider stops (150-200 points) Target 23,750+ for 1:3+ reward Low frequency (1-2 trades/month) For Long-Term Investors: Accumulate on any dip toward 23,000 Hold through minor volatility Target 24,500+ over 3-6 months Stop only on weekly close <22,600 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by sunya
SPX500USD is still going upHi traders, Another move for SPX500USD that played out as predicted in my previous outlook. After a small correction last week it went up and made another small correction down. So next week we could see more upside again to make a new ATH. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
S&P 500 Technical Analysis & Trading OutlookCurrent Price: 6,715.20 | Date: October 4, 2025 📊 MARKET OVERVIEW The S&P 500 is trading at 6,715.20, hovering near historical resistance zones. This analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to provide actionable insights for both intraday and swing traders. 🔍 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Monthly & Weekly Perspective (Swing Trading) Elliott Wave Analysis: The index appears to be in a Wave 5 extension of a broader bullish impulse from the 2022 lows Monthly chart shows potential exhaustion signals as we approach the 6,750-6,800 resistance cluster Wave structure suggests a possible corrective phase (ABC) may initiate in Q4 2025 Ichimoku Cloud (Weekly): Price trading above the cloud - bullish structure intact Tenkan-sen (9): 6,682 | Kijun-sen (26): 6,591 Future Senkou Span projects resistance at 6,780-6,820 Key Support Levels (Swing): 6,620 - Kijun-sen weekly support 6,480 - 50-week EMA (critical long-term support) 6,350 - Monthly pivot & Wyckoff accumulation zone 6,180 - 200-week MA (major bull/bear line) Key Resistance Levels (Swing): 6,750 - Psychological resistance & Gann 1x1 angle 6,820 - Ichimoku cloud projection 6,945 - Fibonacci 1.618 extension from August lows Daily & 4-Hour Perspective Wyckoff Analysis: Current phase suggests late distribution (UTAD - Upthrust After Distribution) Volume declining on recent rallies - potential weakness Accumulation zone identified: 6,480-6,550 for re-entry Harmonic Patterns: Bearish Bat pattern forming on the 4H chart PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 6,740-6,760 Bearish divergence on RSI confirming pattern validity Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price at upper band (6,735) - overextended Band width expanding - increased volatility expected Middle band support: 6,580 Volume Analysis: VWAP (Anchored from September low): 6,612 Volume profile shows weak volume above 6,700 High volume node (HVN) at 6,550-6,600 - strong support Intraday Analysis (1H, 30M, 15M, 5M) Current Intraday Setup: RSI (Relative Strength Index): 1H RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought) 15M RSI: 72.3 (overbought territory) Bearish divergence forming on 30M chart Moving Averages: Death Cross Warning: 50 EMA approaching 200 EMA on 4H chart 1H: 20 EMA (6,698) acting as immediate support 5M: Price oscillating around 50 EMA (6,712) Gann Analysis: Gann Square of 9: Next resistance at 6,728 (45° angle) Time cycle suggests potential reversal window: October 7-9, 2025 Price/Time square approaching - expect volatility spike Candlestick Patterns (Recent): Evening Star formation on 4H chart (bearish reversal) Long upper wicks on 1H chart - rejection at resistance Doji formation on daily - indecision 🎯 TRADING STRATEGIES INTRADAY TRADING SETUP (Next 5 Trading Days) Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability - 65%): Entry Zones: Primary Short Entry: 6,725-6,735 (upon rejection) Secondary Short Entry: 6,750-6,760 (if breakout fails - bull trap) Stop Loss: Above 6,775 (invalidation level) Profit Targets: TP1: 6,680 (20 EMA support - 1H) TP2: 6,650 (VWAP anchor) TP3: 6,620 (Kijun-sen weekly) TP4: 6,580 (Daily BB middle band) Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 minimum Confirmation Signals: Break below 6,700 with increased volume RSI crosses below 50 on 1H chart MACD bearish crossover on 30M Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability - 35%): Entry Zones: Long Entry: 6,680-6,690 (upon bounce from 20 EMA) Aggressive Long: 6,650-6,660 (VWAP retest) Stop Loss: Below 6,635 Profit Targets: TP1: 6,720 (resistance retest) TP2: 6,750 (psychological level) TP3: 6,780 (Ichimoku cloud resistance) Confirmation Signals: Volume surge on bounce RSI bullish divergence on 15M Break above 6,720 with strong momentum SWING TRADING SETUP (2-4 Week Outlook) Primary Strategy: SELL ON RALLY Phase 1 - Distribution (Current): Expect choppy price action between 6,680-6,750 Ideal swing short entry: 6,735-6,760 Stop loss: 6,820 Target: 6,480-6,550 (Accumulation zone) Time horizon: 2-3 weeks Phase 2 - Accumulation (Upcoming): Watch for bullish reversal patterns in 6,450-6,550 zone Potential H&S inverse or double bottom formation Long entry upon confirmation Target: 6,850-6,950 (Next impulse wave) Time horizon: 4-8 weeks ⚠️ RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONTEXT Trap Alert: Bull Trap Risk: HIGH above 6,750 Weak volume at resistance suggests false breakout potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming on 4H chart Bear Trap Risk: MODERATE below 6,650 Strong support zone with high volume profile Potential quick reversal if broken Geopolitical & Macro Factors: Fed policy uncertainty - rate decision impact expected mid-October Q3 earnings season beginning - volatility spike likely Geopolitical tensions may trigger safe-haven flows Seasonal October volatility historically present Volume Volatility Assessment: Current State: Declining volume on rallies (bearish) Expected: Volume spike at 6,750 resistance or 6,650 support Strong Trend Confirmation: Sustained volume >15% above 20-day average 🎯 TRADING PLAN SUMMARY For Next Week (Oct 4-11, 2025): Monday-Tuesday: Expect resistance at 6,725-6,735. Look for short opportunities on rejection. Wednesday-Thursday: Gann time cycle window - increased volatility. Watch for break of 6,700 or 6,750. Friday: Weekly close crucial - below 6,680 confirms bearish bias; above 6,750 invalidates short setup. Optimal Strategy: Sell rallies into 6,730-6,750 resistance Wait for confirmation - don't chase Manage risk strictly - volatile market conditions Scale into positions - don't enter full size immediately 💡 TRADER'S EDGE Pattern to Watch: The confluence of: Bearish Bat harmonic completion RSI divergence Wyckoff distribution phase Weak volume at resistance Gann time/price square Creates a HIGH-PROBABILITY SHORT SETUP at 6,735-6,760 Critical Levels This Week: Bull Control: Hold above 6,700 Bear Control: Break below 6,650 Decision Zone: 6,675-6,725 📝 DISCLAIMER This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always use proper risk management, never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade, and consider your own risk tolerance and trading plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan. Manage your risk.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
2