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Cornfutures

A Stick In The MudCorn Technicals (May) What more is there to say about the corn market that hasn’t been said already? The market remains range bound with daily ranges shrinking as of late, reminiscent of watching paint dry. The CME CVOL index which measures volatility remains near the low end of the years range. Typically, we start to see that increase this time of year, but perhaps we need to get the May contract into delivery to liven things up. On that same topic, trade volume is starting to shift out from the May contract to July, with first notice day just under two-weeks away. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450* Pivot: 431 1/2-435 Support: 421-422*** Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 4k contracts (through 4/9/24), that puts their net short position at 263,554. Broken down that is 158,480 longs VS 422,034 shorts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Grain Futures Gain GroundGrain futures are higher in the early morning trade as some as headline risk looms into the weekend. Corn Technicals (May) May corn futures are fractionally lower in the early morning trade as prices linger near our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435, which just happens to be right near the middle of first support and first resistance. We like the upside potential in corn but some of the deferred contracts have a more friendly technical landscape than the May. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2***, 447 1/2-450**** Pivot: 431 1/2-435 Support: 421-422*** Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 8k contracts (through 4/2/24), that puts their net short position at 259,556. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Technicals (May) May soybean futures are fractionally higher in the early morning trade. Support from 1170-1175 will continue to be very important for the Bulls to defend through this week's trade. A break and close below could spark another wave of pressure. On the resistance side of things, they want to see a close above resistance from 1198-1205 1/2. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2***, 1212 3/4-1216*** Pivot: 1187 Support: 1170-1175***, 1161-1167**** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Wheat Technicals (May) Wheat futures broke out above trendline resistance last week which adds to the recent trend of higher highs and higher lows. If the Bulls can achieve a close above resistance from 568 1/2-570 we could see it open the door for an extension towards the psychologically and technically significant $6.00 level. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 568 1/2-570***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 525** Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Options Blueprint Series: Leveraging Diagonals with Corn FuturesIntroduction to Corn Futures (CBOT) Corn Futures, central to the commodities market, are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). These futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell 5,000 bushels of corn, providing traders with a mechanism to hedge against price changes or to be exposed to future price movements in the agricultural sector. Contract Specifications: Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Quotation: Cents per bushel Minimum Tick Size: ¼ cent per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Sunday to Friday, electronic trading from 7:00 PM to 7:45 AM CT, and Monday to Friday, daytime trading from 8:30 AM to 1:20 PM CT Contract Months: March, May, July, September, December, with additional serial months providing year-round trading opportunities Margin Requirements: Margins are set by the exchange and can vary, with initial margins typically being a fraction of the contract value to secure a position ($1,300 at the time of this publication) The liquidity and volume in Corn Futures make them an attractive market for traders. Factors influencing corn prices include weather patterns affecting crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, and changes in energy prices due to corn's role in ethanol production. Understanding Diagonal Spreads Diagonal Spreads are a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling options of the same type (either calls or puts) with different strike prices and expiration dates. This approach is designed to leverage the time decay (theta) and volatility differences between contracts, making it particularly suitable for markets with expected directional moves and distinct volatility characteristics, like Corn Futures. Key Components: Long Leg: Involves buying an option with a longer expiration date. This option acts as the foundational position, typically chosen to be in-the-money (ITM) to capitalize on intrinsic value while also benefiting from time decay at a slower rate due to its longer duration. Short Leg: Consists of selling an option with a shorter expiration date and a different strike price, usually out-of-the-money (OTM). This leg generates immediate income from the premium received, which helps offset the cost of the long leg. Strategic Advantages: Directional Flexibility: Diagonal spreads can be tailored to bullish or bearish outlooks depending on the selection of calls or puts, strikes and expirations. Time Decay Harnessing: By selling a shorter-term option, the strategy aims to benefit from the rapid acceleration of time decay on the sold option, improving the position's overall theta. Given the cyclical nature of the agricultural sector and the specific factors influencing corn prices, diagonal spreads offer a strategic method to trade Corn Futures options. They provide a balance between long-term market views and short-term income generation through premium collection on the short leg. Application of Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures In applying Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures, we focus on a bearish strategy to capitalize on an anticipated gap fill below the current price level. This strategic choice is driven by the analysis of Corn Futures' price action, indicating potential downward movement. A bearish diagonal spread can be particularly effective in such scenarios, offering the flexibility to benefit from both time decay and directional movement. Bearish Diagonal Spread Setup: Long Leg (Buy Put): Select a put option with a longer expiration date to serve as the foundation of your bearish position. Choose a strike price that is at-the-money or in-the-money (ATM/ITM) to ensure intrinsic value. Short Leg (Sell Put): Sell a put option with a shorter expiration date at a lower strike price that is out-of-the-money (OTM). Trade Example: Assumption: Corn Futures are trading at 434 cents per bushel. Long Put: Buy a 47-day put option with a strike price of 435 cents, paying a premium of 7.49 cents per bushel ($374.5 – point value =$50). Short Put: Sell a 19-day put option with a strike price of 415 cents, receiving a premium of 1.01 cents per bushel ($50.5 – point value =$50). As seen on the below screenshot, we are using the CME Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. The goal is for Corn Futures to decline towards the 415-cent level (origin of the gap). Risk Considerations: While diagonal spreads can offer controlled risk (premium paid = 6.48 = 7.49 – 1.01 = $324 – point value =$50) and strategic flexibility, it's crucial to be mindful of the potential for loss, particularly if the market moves sharply in an unintended direction. Employing risk management techniques can help mitigate these risks: Adjustments and Rolls: Proactively manage the position by adjusting or rolling the short leg to a different strike price or expiration date in response to market movements or changes in volatility. This can help collect additional premium and potentially offset losses on the long leg. Use of Stop Losses: Implement stop-loss orders based on predefined risk tolerance levels. This could be set as a percentage of the initial investment or based on the technical levels in Corn Futures prices. Diversification: While not specific to the strategy, diversifying your portfolio beyond just Corn Futures options can help manage overall market risk. Different markets may react differently to the same economic indicators or geopolitical events, spreading your risk exposure. Regular Monitoring: Given the dynamic nature of Corn Futures and the options market, regular monitoring is crucial. Stay informed about market conditions, news impacting agricultural commodities, and changes in volatility that could affect your position. Diagonal spreads in Corn Futures offer a strategic avenue for traders looking to exploit market conditions and time decay with a defined risk profile. However, the key to successful implementation lies in diligent risk management, including making informed adjustments, employing diversification, and maintaining a disciplined approach to monitoring and exiting positions. Conclusion In this edition of the Options Blueprint Series, we explored the strategic application of Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This advanced options strategy offers traders a nuanced approach to potentially capitalize on market movements, leveraging the inherent time decay of options to enhance potential returns. Employing Diagonal Spreads allows traders to express a directional bias—bearish, in our case study—while managing the investment's risk profile through a combination of long-term and short-term options. By buying a longer-dated, in-the-money put and selling a shorter-dated, out-of-the-money put, traders can set up a position that benefits from both the expected downward movement towards a gap fill and the accelerated time decay of the sold option. However, as with any sophisticated trading strategy, understanding and managing the associated risks is paramount. Directional risks, volatility changes, and the potential for early assignment on the short leg require vigilant management and a readiness to adjust the position as market conditions evolve. By adhering to disciplined risk management practices—such as making timely adjustments, employing stop losses, and maintaining portfolio diversification—traders can seek to navigate the complexities of the options market and aim for consistent, strategic gains. The Corn Futures market, with its dynamic price movements influenced by a range of factors from weather to global supply and demand dynamics, provides a fertile ground for applying Diagonal Spreads. Traders who invest the time to understand both the underlying market and the intricacies of this options strategy may find themselves well-positioned to exploit opportunities that arise from market volatility. In summary, Diagonal Spreads present a strategic option for traders looking to leverage market insights and options mechanics in pursuit of their trading objectives. As always, education and practice are key to mastering these techniques, with paper trading offering a risk-free way to hone one's skills before venturing into live markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Don't spring forward yet on cornWhen the calendar turns to March, gardeners get itchy to plant things. Experience teaches that it's often a good idea to hold off. The above chart shows that corn traders who were willing to wait until late April 2023 stood a much better chance of profit, both on the long and short sides, than those who jumped in during March. The weather markets of late Spring and early Summer were especially rewarding in both directions. If the present uptrend pushes May corn above 440, we'll be ready to buy. We won't be surprised if that doesn't happen in March. Until then, we plan to watch and wait.
CBOT_MINI:XCK2024
by SwingWaiter
CORN - KEYLEVELS - 2DHere I am neutrally bullish, we see a (possible) double bottom, which if it breaks the next level of resistance, could bring buyers and even greater interest. On the other hand, we must take into account that this correction is normal for grain, taking into account that the situation in Ukraine has calmed down and grain exports have resumed, thus all that growth since the beginning of the war, has now been closed and completed by a correction. The price is also decreasing due to the fact that the grain harvest was done in August-September and the stocks are full, but with the time when we get closer to spring, the prices must rise again.
SKILLING:CORNLong
by sfc95
Corn: Prepare to pop 🍿Corn has continued to sell off over the last few days and is now approaching our blue buy zone from USX 496 to USX 470. The downward movement in the form of the blue wave (b) should end there. Subsequently, we expect the blue wave (c) to rise to around USX 600, making it worthwhile for prospective buyers to place long orders in our blue buy zone. Our alternative scenario, with a 25% probability, occurs if the price falls further than we expect. In this case, a break of the support level at USX 474.25 would give it significant downside momentum that buyers should take note of.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Corn is at the critical supportAs shipping cost drops we see that corn , wheat , cotton are dropping fast. This is a disinflational signal OR a big recession signal. We will see what is going to happen after today's NFP and unemployment numbers. Corn is at a good support point. It may rise again if we see NFP is lower than expected or an increase in the unemployment numbers. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FX:CORNF
by WhaleGambit
Corn Shortage! Blah Blah BlahThis week has brought about news on the projected corn yields dropping marginally, which in turn, is pushing this beast into higher territory. As we check out the chart we can see we have a significant golden pocket that will act as the Berlin Wall for corn. Prices below the golden pocket will act as East Berlin, controlled by the soviets during the Cold War. Trapped in a descending trend. If corn manages to push past the golden pocket + trend line resistance, corn will now be on the west side of the Berlin Wall. Free to explode into the June highs of $7.5. In this analogy, I personally think that the soviets will maintain control and rule over corn until harvest is over. Corn harvest has started in the south and will continue into Nov. As we harvest we will have more corn in the bins and ready to use. Which will lead to lower prices IMO. Simple supply and demand. Based off of the chart technicals, I am even more confident in saying that corn will be rejected because of where the GP and trend resistance lays. Once price reaches those levels I am expecting to see a bearish divergence on all three oscillators, and then I will go short big time. This could be a multi-month trade. But as always take profits on your way at key targets. Major short target: $5.70-$5.30
CBOT:ZCZ2022Short
by farmtrader15
3
Inflation Trade - $CORNFI know the inflation trade has been discussed and is possibly over, but CORN has been consolidating with higher lows and lower highs. If the trade is not over we could see a breakout to 780$. This is a hedge trade, corn has a lot of moving parts and the three biggest right now being demand for livestock, ethanol blending, and droughts. If traffic is picking up and I think it will this summer on a WoW basis, if we see beef prices hit some serious highs, and lastly if we see some serious midwest droughts which we currently are.... This could be a mother of a trade. Hedge accordingly with this trade. I would use $corn calls at the money and hedge 0.5% of account
FX:CORNFLong
by rwoods187
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 800'0 Pivot: 782'2 Support : 770'6 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending channel which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 782'2 where the overlap support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 800'0 in line with the swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 770'6 in line with the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for corn .
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 808'4 Pivot: 801'2 Support : 795'2 Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 808'4 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 801'2 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 795'2 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Mar 7, 22 Corn Pullback - Buy opp?In looking at Corn, you know that Crop Planting in the Ulraine is in less than 60 days. Who here thinks that that is actually going to happen with what's going on over there?? If they can't get their corn planted, there could be some supply issues. Add the shipping delays that the world is experiencing and the price could continue to go up. How high? Not sure. But last week corn was on a tear up. Today it is coming down some. Maybe a Buy Order in around 720? I will keep watch to see how low it will go but 720 seems like a support level to me. Obviously if price crashes through it and moves down 700 would be the next logical support, and buying point. Wheat has gone limit up for over 5 days now - Corn went crazy last week and today is in a pullback. I don't know for sure, but I believe over the next month, Corn will continue to go up. I just want to get in on a pullback and ride price up so that's what I'm looking for. Stay safe. Heiko
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
🌾CORN - BitCorn is Back🌽🌮🍿Last year we bought because of inflation. This year things are even more serious, there is a war between Russia and Ukraine. Column: Concerns rise over Black Sea spring crops amid Russia-Ukraine war: www.reuters.com Looks like Fajitas and Tacos🌮, Kellogs frosties 🐯 and other cereal , corn on the cob 🌽, even go ''pop'' in the cinema🍿 might become expensier. On a more serious note, poverty will hit some and food will become a luxury for some. Sad but true. Scary... May logic prevail, the FXPROFESSOR 🌾
CBOT_MINI:XC1!Long
by FX_Professor
4