rwoods187

rwoods187

Here we have a historical chart showing what will likely be obvious in 2 quarters. The chart bats 100% on the issue but not on the resolution. As you can see with LTCM and the Bhat crisis in the late 90s. This chart is great for signaling when to risk-off, it does not signal risk on, for that I use the CBOE:BXY . The way I play the waiting game after going risk...

rwoods187

The indicators from this chart which backtested to call the 1990s Gulf War recession, the Thai Baht, the 1998 LTCM, the 2000 dotcom bubble, the great financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic all before they officially happened. It is calling for whatever this next crisis is going to be called. I placed MOAB or mother of all speculative bubbles for the crisis...

rwoods187

As you can see there is a strong correlation between this predictive chart algo and the bond market steepening predicting the recession before the reason why. Now maybe this time is different. Maybe the massive stimulus during covid will give a false positive here. I just doubt it.

rwoods187

The company was going to beat and just did, all upside from here. Newmont is on the SP500 index and big ETFs. VOO, VTI, SPY, VO, IVV, RSP, IWO, and obviously GDX. When the call options start coming in, this company will see a big upside with the gamma on the holdings. As the market cap increases, all of the above-held ETFs will reweight to hold more when the MMs...

rwoods187

Just looking at the chart between the oil futures and the SPRs the correlation is as tight as it gets. The SPRs are at 50% of the normal holding, which means there could be more selling, but likely they will start filling. This could make for another oil bonanza.

rwoods187

The company boasts a large amount of gold and precious metal royalties in the pipe and on the go, I expect to see some solid growth and momentum here with Silver and Platinum set to see large moves. Once this gets above $55, we should start to see a significant momentum upside and call option buying.

rwoods187 Updated 

Long the 10y for rising rates, this means bank stonks. This isn't a perma long as I expect Q3/4 to slow down on the YoY comps. Ultimately I see a lower high from the past high we saw. Lots of inflation bulls here and I am one of them, but this inflation is printer induced. Forget to restock the printer and inflation disappears real fast. The pair trade here into...

rwoods187

We are going to the moon, not today, but if the fed keeps up with buying BFTP and talking about easing rates, I don't see why this PONZI can't go much higher. My only regret is not getting bigger sooner. We are watching a god candle as retail piles back in, once options are put on the ETF's it could get wilder since so little bitcoin can create wild market moves.

rwoods187

The stock, which plummeted from its peak during the 2021 stock mania, has been in decline for the last few years. Recently delisted from NASDAQ, this small-cap company stands out from others affected by the mania, as it generates income. I believe the selling pressure has subsided, making it a prime time to consider a speculative investment. If management can...

rwoods187 Updated 

See the illustration traced from the 2008 volatility spike leading into the GFC. As it can be seen visually, the similarities are present. The news cycle appears to be dominated by a similar set of events, including the collapse of the 2020's version of Bernie Madoff, SBF. I doubt the volatility will play out in a continuous fashion, as the Fed as new tools to...

rwoods187

Looking at the trends forming on housing we are in a situation for continued de-acceleration. Now this is a big claim, but the headwinds from interest rates rising and the closing window of foreign from China are causing issues. We do however have some tailwinds at entry-level housing with a larger-than-normal immigration policy. I expect weakness in the commuter...

rwoods187

Looking at this chart, we are at the dot-com bubble level of speculation of the traditional blue chip value companies of the dow jones versus the highly speculative Nasdaq companies. Looking here, and based on this chart we should see a pullback and a return to companies with cashflows... This chart isn't an in-depth macro interpretation but is signaling an...

rwoods187

These two normally correlate with each other not on a daily basis but on a trending basis. The last time these decoupled this significantly, it appeared to be a vol impression and it blew up as the 2008 meltdown. We certainly have the ingredients for such an event.

rwoods187 Updated 

The Macromarket is telling the same story overlapping on the same chart. More puts to calls, higher DXY, and Higher VIX. Likely a near-term top given the number of amateur investors seeing this same reality, but the trend will likely continue until something big breaks and the system bottoms and a new market cycle starts.

rwoods187

It was drawing the same line from the peak in April 2007 to Nov 2008 housing bottom. We could be looking at a similar turn of events, but again, I think it should be accelerated. (The amount of debt as the reason) If this comparison carries similarly, it is 16 months from the peak in Feb 2022 to August 2023. We'll see... I do think Power of Sales are starting to...

rwoods187

Clearly, inflation is a problem and I for one thought the rates rising were overblown after the first hike. (I was very wrong here) With that said, we are likely in the topping process for inflation, pending any new black swan events happen. The indicators show 4 things in regards to this bond. 1. No momentum, 2. Bear market trend 3. below the historical anchored...

rwoods187 Updated 

VIX continues its higher lows and higher highs channel with the obvious elevated risk that exists in the world. Days we are in the low end of the vix are perfect for buying tail risk protection in the form of PUTs or selling OTM calls on underlying. Breaking the bottom of the channel will be more important than the top as this would signal an actual trend change....

rwoods187

The above chart is the SPX/Gold vs Gold and SPX. When the relationship is bullish stocks tend to be the #1 performer, when the indicator is bearish, gold appears to be the #1 performer. You could use this relationship on a 1M candle and elaborate it further by adding SPY/NASDAQ/BTC/IWM/VTI on the bullish side and USD/TLT/XLU/GLD on the bearish side. Following this...