I know the inflation trade has been discussed and is possibly over, but CORN has been consolidating with higher lows and lower highs. If the trade is not over we could see a breakout to 780$. This is a hedge trade, corn has a lot of moving parts and the three biggest right now being demand for livestock, ethanol blending, and droughts. If traffic is picking up and...
This is the winner of the airline wars for stock picking. Expecting a big hit with earnings this quarter given the US domestic travel this year. Its adding routes back fast and expanding international travel.
Long the 10y for rising rates, this means bank stonks. This isn't a perma long as I expect Q3/4 to slow down on the YoY comps. Ultimately I see a lower high from the past high we saw. Lots of inflation bulls here and I am one of them, but this inflation is printer induced. Forget to restock the printer and inflation disappears real fast. The pair trade here into...
It's hard to gauge what 1.9T can do to an index, but I think we roll over here after the stimulus. A fail run to a lower high and a slope down. Institutional will rotate as they have been to lower P/E like "value" energy, high beta, etc. Just a thesis. 1.9T can change a lot of factors.
How many times does gold need to offer a buy the dip moment? Remember it is the contrary play to the money printer. Gold here works fundamentally. Either the US fed prints and gold wins, or we say deflation and gold wins. Gold is a currency, so risk manage accordingly.
Macro - Gold and Silver are macro positive right now in the stagflation trade
Micro - The company has massive amounts of silver and gold at low grade but at the current gold price and soon to be silver price it is cheap.
T/A - a triangle is forming off the last run. lower highs and higher lows.
This stock had a pop from sharing a name with...
Gold is trading sideways and the gold volatility has normalized. <15 on the GVZ. Expect a little more consolidation, but the pressure is building. End of the month short contracts will need to be exited.
Gold continues its bullish trend in a shrinking channel with lower GVZ. In a few week's time, the floor will be $1800. The current daily range is $1830-1790. If for some reason a realistic vaccine is mass-produced this could change for an intermediate-term as investors seek risk-on assets, but this opportunity should be used to accumulate more gold. (bottom range...
HBM is a junior copper play with exposure to base metals, and precious metals (Gold, Silver) This is a junior which will benefit from the copper reflation and gold play. Realistically a big guy will buy this company over the next two years. I see this realistically 10+ in two years from a deflation point of view.
Gold is macro positive
Gold is a great currency against the central banks breaking the G10 and USD
Gold has a cup and handle with low volatility, a large short position being squeezed, and a price breakout.
Be careful shorting guys. A few day pull back, but nothing crazy at this low volatility regime. If the GVZ spikes above 19-20 area then maybe.
BTC has broken down on the triangle as opposed to the breakout expected, this isn't a bullish sign. The digital alternative to USD is showing signs of fatigue, which is realistic as businesses, central banks, pension funds, hedge funds, etc did not accept this currency as valid so far. So with retail investors suffering from crypto fatigue and not entering it with...
Based on the path we have seen since 2018, $1800 by the end of August is realistic. When we do hit 1800... That is when everything will get real scary. We either move up fast to hit a target like $2500, or the central banks pull some hail marry to break gold for another 5-10 years....