VIX: Fear vs Correction principleBased on principle, where highest probability is when:
-(SPX) 50/200 UP sloping.
-Full correction
-Positive "context" (fundamentals, that change every year. For instance next year theme is new FED chair. Beginning of QE money printing etc).
Some times SPX drops and VIX flies on "fear". but strong trend stays in tact. And sometimes there is a full exhaust, meaning going up is "easy" (no resistance).
Correction
Bearish HTF Bias with Short-Term Bullish Flag CorrectionGold is still trading under a bearish higher-timeframe structure, and the dominant trend remains to the downside. However, after the recent impulsive move, price appears to be forming a bullish flag / corrective structure, suggesting the possibility of one more short-term upward pulse before continuation.
This setup is counter-trend relative to the higher timeframe, therefore confirmation is mandatory. The bullish move is considered only as a corrective rally, not a trend reversal.
Key observations:
Higher Timeframe (HTF) structure remains bearish
Current price action shows a flag-type correction
Potential for a final bullish push into nearby resistance zones
Strong resistance areas are marked above, where selling pressure is expected to reappear
Main demand zone lies around 4400 – 4410, acting as a key invalidation area
Trading approach:
Prefer confirmation-based long entries only within the corrective structure
Be cautious with aggressive buys due to bearish HTF context
Primary focus remains on short opportunities at higher resistance levels after the correction completes
This idea is context-driven, not a blind signal. Directional alignment with higher timeframes remains critical.
Key Levels
Demand / Support: 4400 – 4410
Resistance 1: 4484 – 4495
Resistance 2: 4525 – 4550
Major HTF Resistance: 4605+
Invalidation
A strong breakdown and acceptance below the demand zone (4400) invalidates the bullish correction scenario and favors direct continuation to the downside.
Corrective pullsback - XPL🐻 SHORT – XPL
Price is facing a major resistance on the 4H timeframe, while RSI is strongly overbought on 15m, signaling short-term exhaustion. This technical alignment suggests a necessary corrective pullback before any further upside. Momentum is weakening near resistance, increasing the probability of rejection.
🎯 TP: 0.1619
🛡️ SL: 0.1809
📊 RR: 1 : 2.2
A clean short setup: higher-timeframe resistance + lower-timeframe overbought → controlled correction with defined risk.
How to Recognize an Upcoming Correction: the Bitcoin CaseHello, Traders! 😎
The cryptocurrency market is constantly in motion, and identifying the moment when upside momentum begins to fade is critical for traders. On the BTC and ETH charts, classic local top patterns are emerging: sharp bullish impulses are followed by downside acceleration and early signs of weakness. These signals help traders assess the likelihood of pullbacks and make informed decisions around profit-taking or position hedging.
Technical signals 🚨
Local tops: The market was printing a sequence of highs followed by shallow pullbacks, pointing to exhaustion of the bullish impulse rather than healthy continuation.
Downside acceleration: Fast sell-offs after highs were established indicate rising sell-side pressure and weakening follow-through.
Near-vertical advances: Extremely steep price moves often represent a terminal phase of the impulse and tend to resolve into consolidation or a corrective leg
Indicator confirmation
Momentum indicators support the structural weakness. RSI showed signs of overheating on lower timeframes, with momentum failing to expand alongside price. Volume behavior also suggested distribution, as upside moves were no longer accompanied by strong participation.
Altcoin comparison
ETH and SOL were displaying similar structures — sharp upside expansion followed by high-taking and early weakness. The synchronized behavior across majors points to a broader, market-wide corrective risk rather than an isolated Bitcoin move.
From a trading perspective, partial profit-taking and selective hedging helped reduce exposure to sharp pullbacks. BTC remained the primary market driver — its structure set the tone for ETH and the broader altcoin complex. Market behavior was often distorted by rumors, FUD/FOMO , and news-driven narratives, which frequently misled participants. For that reason, this analysis focused on clean price action rather than external noise, using highs, pullbacks, and weakness patterns as the primary reference.
This commentary reflected market observation and structural analysis only and was not intended as trading or investment advice.
NETFLIX NEXT MOVE UPNFLX has completed a significant bearish displacement from the highs and is now trading into a well-defined higher-timeframe demand zone, which previously served as the origin of a strong impulsive rally. The current decline shows signs of momentum deceleration as price approaches this area, increasing the probability of sell-side liquidity being absorbed.
From a market structure perspective, price transitioned from an uptrend into distribution, followed by a clean break lower. This move has now extended far enough to justify expectations of at least a corrective reaction, provided demand holds. Multiple supply zones overhead explain prior rejections, making this a location-based swing rather than a trend continuation play.
The plan is to wait for confirmation within the demand zone (bullish daily close, rejection, or lower-timeframe structure shift). Risk is clearly defined below demand, while upside targets sit at prior internal range highs and untouched supply zones above, offering favorable risk-to-reward. If demand fails with acceptance below, the setup is invalidated — no trade.
Is Face book undervalueLet’s start with fundamentals:
1.Earning for q4 was about 4 % below estimate (33.67 B) but still 20 % higher than same period last year.
2.Totall net income for 2020 was 29.15 B and for 2021(4 quarters) is 39.37 B. Isn’t it wonderful?
And FB is trading at 232$ (is equal to the average price of 2020, but with 34% higher net income.)
And after all FB is heavily investing in metaverse. This investment reduces net income for the current year and it will gain it back in near future.
Now technical:
1.Who bought 181 M of FB shares yesterday and 42 M of shares until 12 PM while the average volume was about 20 M? Yes, big boys
2.look at the chart at weekly period:
The important 200 moving average is touched and since 2016 only was touched 2 times, once in Dec2018 and the second was in March 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic. This moving average is an important support.
3.The volume that has been traded in this week is more than the volume in the peak of covid19 decline.
4.You can see the black line is a very strong support.
5.The CCI level is -385 which is the lowest amount from the IPO
6.The RSI level is 23 which is the lowest amount from the IPO.
All saying that it will see the real value.
NZDUSD Update: Kiwi Is Looking For More Upside After CorrectionWe talked about the Kiwi(NZDUSD) back in October, where we mentioned and highlighted a bottom formation within an ending diagonal / wedge pattern for wave C of an ABC corrective decline.
As you can see today, Kiwi is nicely bouncing and recovering after RBNZ cut interest rates in November, and forecasts suggest the broader committee believes the nadir has been hit for the easing cycle. So the Kiwi is coming up as no room for cuts, for now. Notice it can be now bottom after the wedge pattern into wave C, due to an impulsive recovery, which we see it as a wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle. So seems like more upside is coming within wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle, but ideally after the current corrective setback in wave 2 with supports at 0.5750 – 0.5700.
The reason Kiwi could see more upside into late 2025 and early 2026 is due to a bullish stock market, which still has room for gains. S&P 500 and NZD/USD (Kiwi) have been in a tight positive correlation since the November lows. Therefore, if the S&P 500 is set to resume its bullish trend, the Kiwi could easily follow.
CSCO Correction TargetCisco (CSCO) Stock Analysis
As shown on the chart, Cisco is trading near the upper boundary of its 9-month channel. After forming two strong divergences on the 4H chart (Chart A) and the daily chart (Chart B)—confirmed by both MACD and RSI—the stock has entered a corrective phase.
Given the presence of a very strong gap marked on the chart, price is likely to correct at least toward the gap zone, and potentially extend further to the support zone, which may also align with the lower boundary of the 9-month channel.
Analysis will be updated.
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NASDAQ:CSCO
Visa: Completing Correction, Upside Potential AheadVisa Inc. is a global payments technology company that operates one of the world’s largest electronic payment networks. It enables secure electronic transactions between consumers, merchants, and banks in over 200 countries, focusing on fast, reliable, and cashless payments.
Visa has pulled back roughly 15% from its highs and appears to be completing a clear A-B-C corrective decline. Moves out of triangle formations are often final legs within corrective structures, suggesting a new bullish push could be approaching. This outlook is reinforced by the unfilled gap near 371, which historically tends to act as a price magnet over time. As a result, a reversal to the upside over the coming weeks or months would not be surprising. A breakout above the corrective channel would serve as a key confirmation for trend resumption.
Highlights:
Visa appears to be completing an A-B-C decline
Channel break signals potential upside continuation
Unfilled gap at 371 remains a key upside target for 2026
Bullish confirmation above 344.50
Support levels at 311 and 298 on deeper pullbacks
Dash Is Sitting At The Strong Support Within The Wedge PatternDash made a strong rally, as anticipated earlier, but the recent sharp decline suggests that the five-wave bullish impulse has likely been completed. As a result, price action now appears to be in a higher-degree three-wave corrective phase. This pullback fits well with a broader ABC corrective structure following the impulsive advance.
On the 4-hour chart, Dash seems to be trading within wave C of this higher-degree correction. Moreover, price action suggests that the market may be in the final stages of wave (5) within a wedge pattern. This setup often signals trend exhaustion, especially when combined with strong historical support. In this case, the 40 area stands out as a key support zone where buyers could step back in and stabilize the price.
Given this technical structure, traders should be alert for a potential rebound and the early stages of a new rally, particularly if price manages to recover and hold above the 53.50 level. However, it’s important to remain cautious, as the first meaningful bullish evidence would only be seen on a breakout above the 71 area. A decisive move above 105 would then serve as full bullish confirmation, signaling that a larger upside continuation is back in play.
Until those levels are reclaimed, price action should be monitored closely, as volatility may remain elevated near the current support zone.
Is AVGO’s drop over yet?Oracle AVGO — Price Analysis
Chart A (Daily):
Price had been oscillating within an 80-day channel, and after failing to reach the channel’s upper boundary due to repeated divergences, it finally broke below the bullish channel with two strong, high-volume daily candles—the highest selling volume seen on this chart in the past 68 days—and closed below the channel.
Chart B (4H):
This structure is also visible on the 4-hour chart as a wedge pattern, where price initially experienced a fake breakout to the upside and has now broken the lower boundary of the wedge.
Outlook:
This corrective move could potentially continue at least to the gap zone highlighted on the chart, which is a significant gap, and possibly extend further to the support zone at the lower end of the extended channel. Once price reaches these areas, we should watch for potential reactions.
Note: This analysis will be updated as the situation develops.
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NASDAQ:AVGO
Google is trading in a high-risk zone.Google (Alphabet) Stock Analysis
As shown on Chart A, Google is trading within a 5-year ascending channel on the weekly timeframe and has now reached the upper boundary of the channel.
On Chart B (daily timeframe), price has broken below its rising channel and has already moved toward the mid-level of the extended channel.
Given the strong bullish momentum in the most recent move, the probability of a sharp sell-off appears limited. However, considering the bearish divergence in the last price leg, along with the presence of a large unfilled gap that price has never revisited, a corrective move can be expected.
Based on these factors, a pullback at least toward the $217 level remains a plausible scenario.
This analysis will be updated accordingly.
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NASDAQ:GOOG
SP500 Remains Bullish After The FED MeetingS&P 500 has made a very nice retracement recently; in fact for almost the whole November we have seen a pullback of around 5 to 6%, which is quite a lot for the S&P 500, and what is really important is that the market has stopped around the 6500 area, which basically goes back to October 10th when we saw a massive sell-off on that Friday when Trump threatened with new tariffs on China. But afterwards, as you can see, the market recovered, so it looks like a very beautiful rebound from that zone with impulsive characteristics, even beyond the diagonal and trendline resistance lines. This likely confirms that bulls are ready to resume higher into a potential fifth wave, which can be made by a new lower-degree five-wave bullish cycle. Ideally, new trend will resume soon after the current setback that can be flat in wave 2, so be aware of a bullish continuation into all-time highs and 7k are, possibly still this month.
After the FED meeting last week, we can see it making an irregular flat correction in wave (2) that can find the support at 6800 area, so soon be aware of a bullish resumption within wave (3).
XAUUSD Correction toward the strong 4160–4130 zoneXAUUSD Scenarios
Current Price: 4208
Gold is in a very strong long-term uptrend (Wave 3 of the Elliott structure on the monthly and weekly charts), but is currently in the corrective phase of Wave 4 (H4 and lower time frames).
The rejection from the upper Monthly Golden Bollinger Band, combined with a Daily Doji signal and the breakdown of the H4 regression channel, suggests a deeper correction before Wave 3 resumes.
Most Likely Scenarios based on current data in Order of Probability :
1. Correction toward the strong 4160–4130 zone (70% probability)
(overlap of Monthly MSZ + Weekly Support + Daily Trendline)
→ followed by continuation of Wave 3 toward targets 4330 → 4438
2. A direct breakout of the 4245–4255 resistance zone (20% probability)
and continuation of the uptrend without a deep pullback
3. Breakdown of the 4130 support (probability less than 10%)
would activate a short-term bearish scenario toward 4050–4000
The 100K Magnet: Bitcoin Can’t Resist This Zone!!!🧲🧲Bitcoin is aggressively climbing, and the chart makes one thing very clear, the red zone above is acting like a powerful magnet pulling price toward it.
Here’s why:
1️⃣ 100k Round Number
Major round numbers always attract liquidity. Traders, algorithms, and even long-term investors pay attention to them, making 100,000 a natural magnet for price.
2️⃣ Supply Zone
This area hosted heavy selling in the past, meaning there’s unfilled liquidity sitting there. Markets tend to revisit such zones to rebalance orders.
3️⃣ Major Resistance Zone
Historically, this level acted as a ceiling multiple times. What was once previous resistance often turns into the next major test.
With all three factors stacked together, the entire zone becomes a high-gravity area, and BTC tends to get "pulled" toward such confluences.
🏹As long as BTC maintains its short-term momentum, a retest of this magnet zone becomes the most likely scenario. After that? The reaction will reveal whether the bulls can finally break through, or get rejected again.
Will Bitcoin reclaim the magnet zone this time? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BITCOIN: A TALE OF EXHAUSTED BULLSmart money tends to accumulate heavily when sentiment is at extreme fear, signaling belief in a rebound. It is often correct, though not consistently.
Much of the pessimism appears to be fully priced in at this point. Thus, a bullish scenario remains technically possible, although broader conditions still align with a bear-market environment.
Let's see.
Bitcoin 2026History doesn’t repeat like a record player — but it rhymes.
By tracking patterns critically (not fatalistically), we can:
1. Spot early warnings of past mistakes.
2. Identify where old models fail or not.
3. Make more informed choices about the future.
I'll make 12 updates ahead and we will find out how this patterns works in case of btc/usd.
Key Questions to Test Over 12 Months
Do halving cycles still drive price action, or has the market “priced it in”?
Does BTC is still just a “risk tech” (correlated with Nasdaq)?
Core Metrics to Track Monthly
a) Price & Volatility
BTC/USD closing price (monthly average).
30‑day volatility (standard deviation of daily returns).
Compare to past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021 peaks/bottoms).
b) On‑Chain Activity
Active addresses (network usage).
Exchange inflows/outflows (signaling accumulation vs. selling).
Hash rate (miner confidence).
c) Macroeconomic Context
U.S. inflation rate and Fed policy (interest rates, QT/QE).
Global liquidity conditions (M2 money supply, T‑bill yields).
Risk‑on/risk‑off sentiment (S&P 500, gold, USD index).
d) Regulatory & Adoption Shifts
New crypto regulations (U.S., EU, Asia).
Institutional adoption (spot ETF flows, corporate treasury allocations).
Tech updates (Bitcoin protocol changes, Lightning Network growth).
Meanwhile we will focus on charts.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Ripple Is Still Bullish Despite Recent Spike LowerRipple is still bullish despite the recent spike lower, which can act as a strong support from a technical and Elliott wave perspective.
Ripple is a blockchain-based digital payment protocol designed for fast, low-cost international money transfers. Its native cryptocurrency, XRP, helps facilitate transactions between different currencies, making cross-border payments quicker and cheaper compared to traditional systems like SWIFT.
Ripple sold-off recently and it made a huge spike lower due to the market manipulation, but these spikes usually act as a strong support. It still looks like a complex W-X-Y correction in wave IV on a daily chart, which can now resume the bullish trend within final wave V of (V).
In the 4-hour chart, we can see a massive spike down, but out of wave (B) triangle pattern, so it’s a penultimate move into wave (C) of Y. With the current strong rebound and recovery, seems like bulls are back in the game, and it looks to be forming a bullish setup with waves 1 and 2. So watch out for further rally within wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle, especially if jumps back into 2.7 area and later above 3.10 bullish confirmation level.
Your Playbook for Deep Corrections: Top Seven Things to KnowEvery trader hopes that whatever is happening with any pullback is healthy. “Just a healthy retreat, it’ll go back, it always does. R-r-right?”
While that’s true (obviously, markets had always shot up to records after deep losses), your job is to survive that lower leg and ideally come out stronger than before.
Because sometimes the market doesn’t correct immediately. It drops, turns around, drops some more and doesn’t ask you how you’re doing.
Where are we in the valuation cycle now? In the “Is this AI thing a bubble” talks.
With stocks stretched, AI valuations orbiting Saturn, and Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA dictating the market’s fate, investors are starting to ask: What happens if this thing unwinds… fast?
A deep correction shakes your portfolio like nothing else, ultimately putting your strategy (and sanity) to a test. That's why you must know how to deal with correction ( if when it comes).
Here’s your playbook. Seven things every trader should know when markets get serious.
⚡️ 1. Know What’s Driving the Tempo
Right now, the tempo-setter isn't in the economic calendar (but good to keep an eye on it). It's not gold, the US dollar, oil prices, or consumer sentiment.
It’s Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA
The stock has shot to stratospheric levels, climbing with such force that the entire market now reacts to its every earnings forecast, capex comment, and Jensen Huang metaphor about the "virtuous cycle of AI.”
When a single company starts steering the market’s mood, you know the stakes are high. Nvidia’s rise has been spectacular. Its potential fall could also be spectacular.
If there’s a crash in the current market, undoubtedly tech goes first, and AI-tied shares are poised to lead the plunge. Not because the companies are bad, but because valuations are sky-high, crowded, and pumped by shady-looking multi-billion-dollar deals.
🧨 2. Sky-High Valuations Fall the Hardest
AI has been the market’s darling. And like any hot market corner, the exit door gets crowded when the music stops.
These stocks work great in a liquidity-rich, momentum-heavy environment. But in a deep correction, they can drop first and fastest.
Why?
They’re relatively expensive.
They’re owned by institutions (by boatloads).
They’re deeply intertwined with leverage.
When selling starts, it spreads: chips, software, cloud. Really anything with “AI initiative” mentioned in the last five earnings calls.
If the correction deepens, correlations go to 1 , and “diversification” starts to feel like a theoretical concept.
🧺 3. Staples Can Survive. But Aren’t Safe.
What tends to hold up in a downturn?
Companies that produce things people buy every day.
Coca-Cola NYSE:KO , Procter & Gamble NYSE:PG , Walmart NYSE:WMT , Costco NASDAQ:COST . These are the boring giants who don’t need AI hype to sell toothpaste, detergent, and caffeine.
But here’s the catch.
When tech crashes, fund managers don’t just sell tech.
They sell everything with liquidity to buy the tech names they've been waiting to own at a discount.
That includes consumer staples. Even the defensive darlings can get dumped to fund someone’s impulsive “NVDA is finally cheap!” moment.
🧭 4. Corrections Have Phases. Know Which One You’re In.
Corrections tend to move in waves:
Denial: “This is just a dip.”
Realization: “This is not a dip.”
Capitulation: “Sell everything.”
Bargain hunting: “Wait… everything is on sale.”
Recovery: “We survived. Buy up!”
Don’t confuse early weakness with late-stage panic.
Ideally, you want to buy when everyone else is emotionally unavailable, not when they’re still debating if it’s a pullback or an opportunity.
📊 5. Liquidity Matters More Than Fundamentals
In a deep correction, fundamentals usually take a backseat.
Everything becomes about liquidity.
Who needs cash?
Who has margin calls?
Who needs to rotate?
Which institutions need to de-risk?
This is why great companies drop alongside mediocre ones.
Liquidity can trump logic.
Market structure can trump valuation.
And algos don’t care that you really like that stock long-term.
🧘♂️ 6. Your Mindset Is a Position Too
Corrections can provoke every trading impulse, especially if they're steep and you expect a quick rebound:
Revenge trades
Over-leveraged dip buying
Premature bottom-calling
The hardest thing during a deep correction isn’t predicting the bottom, but not losing your head (and cash) before the bottom arrives.
Pro traders work with a few rules that help them avoid emotional decision making:
Pre-set drawdown limits
Scaling entries
Non-negotiable stop-losses
Portfolio hedges
Cash as an asset
If you don’t have a playbook before the drop, you’ll be writing one during the drop.
🛒 7. Buy the Best, Not the Loudest
When markets crack, everything goes on sale, everyone knows that.
Before you go bargain hunting and deep discount shopping, prioritize:
Cash-generating giants
Companies with pricing power (and moat)
Firms selling essentials in whatever industry
Businesses that don’t rely on hype to survive
🧾 The Takeaway
A deep correction may not be the end of the world, but it could be the market’s way of redistributing opportunity.
Nvidia and the AI titans have been running the show. And they’ll likely lead any sharp selloff.
And yes, even your safe, boring consumer staples can get dragged into the downside.
But corrections create clarity. They separate narrative from value, hype from durability, and momentum from substance.
If you stay disciplined, patient, and unemotional, a correction becomes less of a threat and more of a roadmap, pointing you toward assets worth owning when the next bull run begins.
Off to you : What’s your take on the current market situation? Do you see a bubble in the works, ready to go pop? Or it’s all looking fine and dandy, no reason for caution?
AMD Is Approaching Support, While Finishing A CorrectionAMD is in a very strong uptrend, supported by the impressive rally since early October when it gapped higher on positive AI news. Since then, the stock has gained more than 50%, and this bullish momentum could continue after a retracement, especially considering latest company’s better-than-expected earnings report.
But based in latest price action, we assume that the market is now in a corrective pullback before resuming higher, ideally forming wave four within a broader five-wave sequence. The previous high around 220 could act as the first key support, followed by the 200 area, which also aligns with upper range of unfilled gap. So if we are correct, then later this month or early in December, the market can once again stabilize and turn up for a new high, while the price is above 187 invalidation level.
Highlights:
Trend: Strong uptrend, wave four correction in view
Support: 220 / 200 zone
Invalidation: Below 186
Note: Wait for a pullback to complete before considering new long opportunities
BTC: 2021 playbook. People expect a V shape bounce, when I think the odds favor more of a 2021 type of long correction (death cross swing). Reason being, the break of a strong momentum log trend, lower lows in BTC/SPX.
If we are on the bottom --> it took 2 months , before next break out. (20 May -> 20 July).
I think most momentum stocks, like NASDAQ:PLTR , NASDAQ:HOOD should lose their momentum and form tops (people who didnt sell the top, should take profit next time it's at ATH). Stage cycle.
BTC is a risk on indicator. TVC:DXY dollar has broke out, indicating demand for cash.
//November is usually a strong month. Good news - stocks drop is a sign of top.






















