USDJPY Could Retest The Highs, While US Bonds Are DownHello traders!
Today we want to share an intraday update for USDJPY pair in which we see nice and clean bullish impulse in progress, ideally back to highs for wave 5 that can retest the highs and 125 - 126 area.
The main reason why USDJPY may stay up is still an unfinished five-wave decline on 10Y US Treasury Notes.
As you can see, there's a negative correlation, so if bonds are still pointing lower for wave (5), then USDJPY could easily stay up, while the price is above 123.05 invalidation level.
Trade well!
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Correlation
How To Invest In Bitcoin & Ethereum Using S&P500 IndexIn this video, I explain how Ethereum and Bitcoin have been trading in tight correlation to the U.S S&P500 stock market Index.
I will show you how to use historical Volatility, to know how much the two cryptocurrencies fluctuate on average per month, alongside price swings in the S&P500.
Equipped this this knowledge, you will be able to see when the S&P500 pulls back within its long-term bullish trend, this is the time to buy Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Its been well documented in the media about this correlation, but let me show you how to make money from it.
US30 Daily Price was previously in a rising expanding channel, then a breakout to the downside occur, & current market structure is a downtrend where price is now forming lower lows & highs. Price has now made a new lower high, making a retest of the broken channel. This zone also aligns perfectly with the 50% fibonacci retracement & a strong zone of previous support now new resistance. Price has been stalling at this region all week now, & today a Doji indecision candlestick has formed. I am now anticipating for price to remain below this supply region, & form a new potential lower low towards a strong area of daily demand below.
Stonk-Crypto Update (#10) : Crypto/Stocks ready to Decouple ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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NAS100 H1Price has previously created a rising wedge pattern, & has broken it to the downside after failing multiple times to break above key level resistance, which aligns with the higher timeframe descending trend line which was rejected for a "3rd time today. Price also has formed a head on shoulders formation on the lower timeframe & has made a successful break & retest of the neckline. I am watching the intraday supply zone here for price to print a fresh lower high, where then on the lower timeframe I will be anticipating for price to make a lower low towards 4 Hour support below.
Interesting Correlation between 2y10y spread and BitcoinHello Traders,
There is an interesting correlation between Bitcoin and spread of US 2 year bond and US 10 years.
Correlation looks affirmative from the early 2020 until now.
Even on smaller time frames correlation can be observable.
Wanted to share that,
Stay safe!
Stocks Will Stabilize When Aussie Finds The SupportHello traders and investors!
Today we will talk about stocks and Aussie (AUDUSD) pair regarding risk-on/risk-off sentiment, so if you are wondering when stocks will be back to bullish mode, then keep an eye on Aussie.
As you can see on the left correlation chart between SP500 and AUDUSD pair, always when Aussie finds the support, we see SP500 stabilization.
Well, if we take a look on the right Aussie chart from Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a corrective movement, ideally a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) decline. We are already tracking final wave (Y), but it has to be finished in three legs A-B-C and as you can see, wave C is still missing.
So, if we are on the right path, then stocks might not be ready for a bull-run yet, until Aussie fully completes its corrective decline, where final leg may also occur as a spike down like back in March 2020 and January 2019.
Trade well!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Mon 14th Feb 2022 Daily Forex Charts : 3x New Trade SetupsGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified 3x new trade setups this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on these setups. The trades being a EUR/CHF Sell, EUR/JPY Sell & EUR/USD Sell. Watch the overall risk due to the high correlation between these trades, as all involve the EUR. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
CPR monthly: every month we are getting crushed, but why today? December, January and February: 3 months in a row bitcoin is getting hitting the pivots from below and making a new lower low.
How long can this go without ANY decent relief rally.
Today's Paypal and Meta showed horrible after hour moves, over 20% down.
This should drag the NASDAQ down too.
And we know what this means: BTC will move bearish or sideways base case scenario for the day.
Let's keep an eye on that 35.2K and let's see if it holds as that would prove the needed strength to make ANY upside move in the next upcoming days.
MicroStrategy testing FibonacciWe can see a high correlation between the company and BTC since the pandemic.
Looking at the monthly chart, the fact is that the price is now in an important Fibonacci region at 50%.
On the 1-hour chart, on the ADX indicator, we can see a decrease in the selling force (red arrows), and an increase in the buying force (green arrows),
forming a kind of symmetrical triangle, signaling a temporary indefiniteness.
I'm waiting in the cabin to see what happens.
CADJPY warsOil clearly took the up-ramp. Now as you can see CJ was playing pretty much playing a leading role on this chart, which spans from May last year. There have been three other occasions back in August and September last year where CJ dips before catching up with Oil. It signals a possible USD roll over, which often plays in the second half of the year.
Should we see a start of the USD roll over season at this time of the year it may take a little longer than usual to return bullish again. I see a possibility to last till December from any time it starts. Let's keep an eye on the stock markets as they play a big role to kick it off.
USDCAD x USOIL - A Peek Into The Future Of Oil 🛢👀USDCAD and USOIL are inversely correlated - meaning when USDCAD goes up, OIL goes down (and vice versa).
In the chart we have USOIL at the top and USDCAD inverted at the bottom. It appears that USDCAD is ahead of Oil by around a month or so. When USDCAD started it bearish wave, USOIL was starting its bullish wave (after a month).
We recently saw a third touch of a trendline for USDCAD and price rejected nicely and USDCAD is now bullish. We haven't yet seen that for USOIL. We're still yet to touch the trendline for the 3rd time, which will very likely follow USDCAD inversely.
FUNDAMENTALS
Fundamentally we have reason to believe that in early Feb Oil prices will head lower. Opec Plus is expected to adhere to its current strategy at its February 2nd Meeting, raising its March production target to 400,000 barrels per day.
More supply = Lower prices = USOIL Shorts.
It just so happens that the third touch of the trendline for USOIL falls around the Feb 2nd - which would give us a perfect reason to short.
In conclusion, we have the following reason to short OIL:
- USDCAD is leading the way a month early whilst USOIL follows
- USDCAD has already hit the trendline for the 3rd time and is bullish
- USOIL is about to hit the trendline for the 3rd time and turn bearish
- If the OPEC meeting goes well and they adhere to the 400k barrels a day, we will see USOIL move lower.
What do you guys think? Do you agree? Did you know about this correlation? Let me know below.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!