TheTradingParrot

TheTradingParrot

Cerberus observes the ratio between stable coins and the markets to forecast extremes. We are currently seeing a sell signal. The past sell was a fake out so its worth having a look a how often this can happen and if it has ever happen to see two fake outs in a row. From 2017, where we can start tracking all the stable coins used in the indicator, we see 15 sell...

TheTradingParrot

Large whales started 2024 distributing more than accumulating (ratio > 1) During 2023 when that happened while BTC was moving up strongly it ended in a correction. Currently we are only consolidating. So it’s not necessarily too bearish yet. If we enter green that’s usually a great time to accumulate (mimicking the large whales tends to work out well most of the time)

TheTradingParrot

We've been exploring PNR applied to price and to indicators including moving averages, oscillators and even QFL. PNR helps us identifying how "rare" a value is and therefore spotting opportunities. But what if we used PNR to determine how rare is that a signal hasn't triggered in the past X candles? Introducing the time PNR option. Example use: 1) As the...

TheTradingParrot

Since April 2021 we have respected this trend line 11 times. In the past days we couldn't manage to get above it and we turned it back into resistance. 11 times is a considerable number to expect some more serious resistance so seeing rejection didn't surprise me. In my opinion we won't be able to get above it unless we see DXY correct from current levels to at...

TheTradingParrot

Price can make another try to break the first pivot, but it doesn’t look very good to see such a strong rejection. Be careful but I wouldn’t discard price still eventually conquering the pivots later this month. We’ll have to monitor what the dollar does. If it gets rejected at 108$ and finally has a decent pull back that would definitely allow Bitcoin to hold...

TheTradingParrot

We are a few dollars away from seeing a new buy signal from the Pi cycle bottom indicator. Nothing is guaranteed in trading but if you zoom out the chart you will notice that Pi Cycle has not failed yet EVER.

TheTradingParrot

In the bear market it has never failed, impressive.

TheTradingParrot

CPR monthly is once more driving the market. If we don’t go above the white pivots for July we risk falling to the first support at 14k. Right now the lower pivot is causing struggle. We must manage to get above it and quick! Each month has been THE SAME story.

TheTradingParrot

Yesterday I published the weak BUY signal from the hive. I'm surprised to see that the target was met by 81% Signal price: 42,536 USD Original target (ATR): 43,600 USD Top price: 43,392 USD 200 dollars away from meeting the original target. As I said it was a weak buy signal but it's incredible that it still almost nailed it! The signal only used a count of...

TheTradingParrot

We've been comparing these bull structures for a while: 2021 May-July bear period vs December-March 2022. From the fibonacci retracement applied to the first pull back after the first pump we can see that in 2021 we manage to find support in the 0.5 fib level. In 2022 we didn't hold leaving us the golden pocket as the next potential level. 0.5 and 03 levels are...

TheTradingParrot

I tend to use the bull hive counting 7 divergences before firing buy. But I’m a human being and I’m curious how many are we counting now so far because we still don’t get any buy signal. In this chart I’m relaxing the hive to only 5 divergences and you can see that it’s printing buy signals more frequently. Obviously you can’t expect 5 signals count to be...

TheTradingParrot

41.6K is the area with most historic volume in the visible range in the presented chart. If BTC breaks down this level there's a vacuum of volume that will only find a potential support around 38K. Unfortunately that would invalidate the inverted head and shoulders we were discussing yesterday. If we bounce back up on the daily and only wig below then we would...

TheTradingParrot

If #bitcoin goes back to 44K we might print a second inverted head & shoulders pattern. The first one didn’t play out. Would the second one do if we get another one in March? We do not have the pattern yet, so even though that would become a bullish pattern is still not ready for trading. We are just trying to anticipate what could be next. In order to achieve...

TheTradingParrot

Ascending triangle breakouts are more likely during an uptrend. They can also signal a trend reversal but the price must breakout the top horizontal line to confirm it. The past week we failed to breakout the top of the triangle. Coincidentally our indicator the hive was signalling a potential dump. This was also accurate the past time it signalled which is...

TheTradingParrot

As mentioned in the last youtube livestream not making it to the first resistance of 46.5K would show weakness and a potential revisit of the pivots around 40K. That is what happened in past days. We also said that we MUST not close a daily candle below the pivots otherwise a revisit to the 30K range would be in play. And that's where we are now. Just purely...

TheTradingParrot

And the most viral pattern of the day is….the inverse head and shoulders with a target price of 60k. Not the most perfect formation tbh but the best opium of the past 3 months for sure!

TheTradingParrot

Based on logarithmic model and 4-year halving cycle model we don't need a blow off top in the current cycle to get to 90K. We can just literally stay in the bitcoin comfort zone logarithmic channel and chill until we get there. Not financial advice but I kind of resonate with this idea. I'll be publish a video on youtube tonight with all the detail of this...

TheTradingParrot

DXY is right on the multi month trendline that we've been using as support since June 2021. If we break down we could potentially revisit the multi year trendline. Holding our current support could take us to the top half of the multi year triangle and these levels have been associated with extreme levels of volatility for DXI. DXI correcting to the multi year...