in 2016 Silver made a bottom at 14$. At the end of 2018 it made another bottom at 14$.
In 2016 price pulled back right into the 1000SMA. In 2018 Silver pulled back too but price have not touched yet the 1000SMA.
In view of the above IMHO there is no need to enter the market at this stage. First need to build support above the pink 0.618 Fibo. When...
double bottom supporting at $14.
2nd bottom forming in divergence with RSI oversold.
230SMA stopping the pull back and pushing down as in 2016.
IMHO a cross of the 230SMA with price breaking and consolidating above $16 may trigger a run towards $20 (1000SMA) with 1st TP at $18.
Otherwise, IMHO, if support at $14 is breached, Silver will probably keep...
after finding support with a double bottom at the end of January the US Dollar Index bounced from A to B. This run was supported by the 50SMA and topped on Feb 15th. After making B DXY crossed & re-tested the 50SMA that is keeping it down. Price corrected approx 50% of the run from A to B before re-testing the 50SMA.
Despite RSI is below 50 line price...
here it's where Silver is in respect of its position prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Please watch the RSI and note the shift in sentiment that has been persistent since 2014. Silver has been in Low Sentiment for the last 5 years.
Sentiment was runnung high before the 2008 Financial Crisis but fear drove money out of other markets into safe havens...
it's Wednesday and the DXY may be bouncing on the 50SMA or crossing it.
In the H4 chart that I posted yesterday the 50SMA follows the swings. Maybe in the H1 chart (above) the 50SMA provide support for another attempt to climb above 97.
On the other hands please note a similar structure (1234) in USD/JPY which may extend the bottom of wave 4 deeper...
I still don't know how to use VIX in order to buy SPX pullbacks into demand but IMHO the video explanation provided by Investopedia is a great place where to start.
To note that if you set up this structure and enlarge it, VIX will overlap SPX due to 2008 Financial Crisis therefore its benefits may be...
I started this work on the 1H chart but I am posting 4H.
On the 1H chart I was trying to find a long SMA to support the move made since end 2018 beginning 2019 and found the 1000SMA.
On the 1H chart the 1000SMA worked well as support and then resistance but it was too compressed. I tried the 4H chart and noted that the 1000SMA was working very well as...
as you know I am obsessed with inverted (negative) correlations between GOLD vs USD/JPY. Week11 may be the start of one of these moments when their moves are negatively correlated.
However this is not the topic of this idea. The topic of this post is the same as my previous post on Gold. "Common bottoms". And USD/JPY made a "common bottom" in week10...
EUR/USD and DXY are unfolding their moves. Watch out for USD/JPY and Gold that seems lagging both.
Strategy: See my last post in the related links below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to like if you like the post and to follow if you want to receive notifications on new or updated ideas.
Respect, Be Carefull...
on Feb 11, 2019 I posted some thoughts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF in relation to their PEG (please refer to the Related Ideas linked below).
EUR/CHF at 1.20 (A)
USD/CHF at 1.02 (A)
Both are travelling below their PEGs.
With reference to the 4H Chart posted above, please note...
this pair started week9 going down. Same as Gold and contrary to DXY.
RSI very close to be oversold. If momentum builds up and price crosses 1.12832 there may be potential to get to 1.12526. However be carefull that price could also bounce from here and look for the SMAs to cut short-entries aiming at short-term profits like me.
USD/JPY stopped at 112....
this market structure captures the bullish run (figure 1) made by US dollar since mid-April 2018 from A to B.
(This is not just Cozzamara saying so but Morgan Stanley, Credit Agricole and Goldman Sachs among a pool of other banks that back in November 2018 thought the greenback’s strength was waning).
And they were all right!
In fact US Dollar Index...
I've adjusted the periods of the SMAs by adding 50 to both.
Price crossed the blue horizontal line and is encountering various supportive elements from a technical point of view.
If it crosses back the blue horizontal line in the next 2 to 4 candlesticks I will set up short-term trades targetting the red line when it crosses the 103SMA.
If it does not...
arising tensions in Venezuela may escalate following the event organized at the border with Colombia.
I hope things won't get out of hand but if they do, Gold will probably exceed B.
The above chart has been divided in weeks. Vertical lines represent the start and the end of the weeks. The end of next week is marked with finish flags.
During the week...
"The most common method of trading the ratio is that of hedging a long position in one metal with a short position in the other. For example, if the ratio is at historically high levels and investors anticipate a decline in the ratio that would reflect a decline in the price of gold relative to the price of silver, investors should simultaneously buy...
following my previous post please find above 4H chart focusing on the triple S support before the pullback at the end of week17.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive...
the above is a close up of price movements inside the circled area:
Now please forget about the chart with the circle and concentrate on the 30 minutes chart.
a) three levels: 1266, 1277 and 1288;
b) price supported by 450SMA above 1277;
c) RSI just above 50;
IMHO, US China Trade negotiations and clues...
first of all, thank you all for appreciating my works.
I do my best to try to make sense of what makes no sense. At least for me. Like the move that Gold made today after strong NFP release. To be honest...I was not expecting that pullback. Especially I was not expecting to end week17 above the same support that was breached on Wednesday when FOMC...