Crab
BTC Elliott wave analysis 9/16 /2025Is Bitcoin’s Cycle Ending, or Just Another Correction?
BTC made a new all-time high last month, followed by significant selling pressure. This raises the question: Has the BTC cycle ended, or is this just another corrective wave before another push higher?
In my view, BTC has already completed its cycle since the bear market ended in November 2022, based on the following factors:
1. Wave Structure Suggests Completion of Wave 5
From my primary scenario, the 5-wave cycle beginning after the November 2022 bear market is as follows:
Cycle Wave I: Nov 21, 2022 – Apr 14, 2023
Cycle Wave II: Apr 14, 2023 – Sep 11, 2023
Cycle Wave III: Sep 11, 2023 – Jan 20, 2025
Cycle Wave IV: Jan 20, 2025 – Apr 9, 2025
Cycle Wave V: Apr 9, 2025 – Aug 14, 2025
Within Cycle Wave V, we can clearly see wave 1 and wave 3 of the initial impulse, followed by a correction (wave 4), and then a final 5-wave sequence. This last push shows signs of exhaustion: although wave ④ (part of wave 5) lasted nearly a month, the market struggled to achieve new highs. This behavior suggests that buying pressure is exhausted and Cycle Wave V may have ended.
2. Post-High Wave Structure
The decline after BTC’s all-time high could be interpreted as the start of a new impulse down, or as part of a complex corrective structure such as WXY or WXYXZ.
We need further confirmation, but one thing is clear: after the upward correction completes, another downward wave should follow, either to complete the correction or as wave 3 of a larger bearish impulse.
Micro Analysis
Based on my Elliott Wave count, it seems BTC has completed wave II or wave b.
This is confirmed not only by Gann fan resistance, but also by the divergence on the abrupt wave 5 in the 4-hour chart, which was followed by a strong downward move. This implies BTC has already entered wave III, or has at least completed its correction.
If this current impulse is indeed wave 3 of a larger downtrend, the target for wave V would be around $81,000, supported by a Crab harmonic pattern projection.
Gold Hits New ATH – Is a Bearish Crab Reversal Next?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to rise today after the release of the
ISM Manufacturing PMI index formed a new All-Time High(ATH) .
The question is what price range could the new ATH price range for gold be in?
Gold is currently moving near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)($3,557-$3,531) .
From a pattern analysis perspective , it looks like Gold is completing a Bearish Crab Harmonic Pattern . In fact, if we find a trigger at point D of the Bearish Crab Harmonic Pattern , we can confirm this pattern.
From an Elliott wave theory perspective , it looks like Gold is completing wave 5 . This wave 5 could act as the end of the main wave 3 .
I expect Gold to drop to at least $3,501 in the coming hours .
Second Target: $3,481
Third Target: Support zone($3,474-$3,466)
Stop Loss (SL) = $3,559(Worst)
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 15-minute time frame.
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GOLD ShortA decrease in gold prices is anticipated, considering the ideal Crab pattern on the four-hour timeframe.
This pattern, considered one of the reliable harmonic patterns in technical analysis, may indicate a trend reversal and price correction.
but for final confirmation, other technical and fundamental factors need to be examined as well.
CHZUSDT.P | 1H Short ThermI’m taking a short position on CHZUSDT.P (1H) based on an Anti Crab harmonic pattern that completed at point D.
🔎 Confluences:
– Anti Crab harmonic completion at resistance
– TDG momentum indicator flipped bearish (Sell mode)
– Structure aligned with median line channel (Pulsefork)
📉 Plan:
– Entry: Point D rejection
– Targets: TP1 → TP2 → TP3 (scaling out)
– Stop: Above X to protect capital
I’m sharing this setup for discussion — not financial advice.
Curious: do you also combine harmonic patterns with custom momentum tools like TDG, or do you rely purely on price action?
WTI crude spotafter breaching 65.238 wti get more weaker as its wave 3 or c open and may take it to 57-58 $ but one bearish crab again also appear may develop. Levels in chart, sell on rally market but near that level with sl and buy signal one can see reversal. I am not Sebi registered analyst. This is not buy , sell hold recommendation.