Previously I wrote a brief note explaining caution for the US Banking industry as illustrated by XLF.
This is due to:
- market risk of a broader market pullback - as currently being experienced
- impact from Covid-19 variants like Delta etc.,
- the cumulation of record high bank reserves (cash) which serve to stress Bank Capital and Capital adequacy ratios....
There is a classic saying that credit markets tend to lead equity markets.
The rationale is that credit investors are solely more concerned about downside risk (as they worry whether coupons will be paid and whether they will get their principal back at maturity) and measure risks and determine spreads - over the risk free/benchmark rate - by factoring in the...
As Volumes begin to dry up and Seasonality begins to take hold as Euphoria
morphs quietly into "Fear" the ES will begin a large retracement.
Globex has been another Low Volume affair with the Retail Chasers continuing
to BTD with diminished conviction.
The chart remains in a Bull Trend, with extreme divergences.
We are preparing for a very nasty 10% correction,...
In additional to Wells Fargo - more than one dozen additional Banks have
reduced Lines of Credit (LOCs) - the prior contraction in Personal Credit
occurred two weeks before the previous Retracement South.
We anticipate the Net Effect will be Negative with an abrupt reduction in
M2 into the end of August.
$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support
New Oriental Education & Tech Group had a big move and a big correction.
It's time to playing some bullish move.
Oversold on weeky and on daily too, sitting on the bullish trendline.
Oversold too, bullish divergence.
Forecast for Macro:
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility...
Max profit: $291
Probability of Profit: 64%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 41%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $709 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 53 (high)
Expiry: 43 days
Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 190 Put
Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 200 Put
Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 290 Call
Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 300...
What an amazing week it has been for ETH and the Ethereum Community, there has been some serious shockwaves with the announcement of adoption by major banks to use the ETH2 protocol as a transport layer between private blockchains and CBDC's, the European Investment Bank just announced they are using Ethereum smart contracts to issue €100m bonds in conjunction...