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Crudeoilforecast

MCX CrudeOil update 12-06-2026Crude Oil is currently trading near an important short-term support zone around 7,900, while remaining below a key resistance area near 8,200. Price has seen a sharp decline, and the next move may depend on how it reacts around current levels. 🔍 Market Structure Short-term trend: Weak / Bearish bias Key Resistance: 8,200-8220 Upside Reference Zone: 8,400 Immediate Support: 7,900 Downside Reference Zone: 7,700 📈 Bullish Scenario (Setup 1) If price sustains above the current support and gains strength, a recovery move toward nearby resistance zones may be possible. Levels to monitor: ➡️ 8,200 (near-term resistance) ➡️ 8,400 (next reference zone) 📉 Bearish Scenario (setup 2) If price breaks and sustains below 7,900, further downside pressure could emerge. Levels to monitor: ➡️ 7,800 region ➡️ 7,700 (next support/reference zone) 🧠 What to Watch The reaction around 7,900 may provide clues for the next directional move. Watching for confirmation, such as strong candle closes or rejection near key levels, can help avoid impulsive entries. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects a personal market view and is shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a trade signal. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by InvestyourAsset
Crude-oil, brewing another big up move?Since the time Iran - US war broke out in February, oil price remain at a broader range of 84 - 117, Crude has shown it's tendency to bounce back from the base it has created around $86, four instances in the past 3-months is testimony to that. Its seems almost certain that whenever the price nears around 86, market is struck by some big news that takes the price high, again. Given the current global ambiguity around the war and it's consequences, Expecting Crude at higher levels giving wide upswings is not unreasonable. Trade Levels above $94.70, another good up-swing could be expected, Immediate support is at $90.12 $85 and below is major support. resistance remains at the levels of $104, $110 Strict Risk management should be applied and Position should be sized according to individuals risk appetite. For Educational Purposes only, Not an Investment Advice
TVC:USOILLong
by CrazyTrades247
Oil’s Big Test: Peace Trade or War Premium?Oil is not behaving like a normal commodity chart right now. It is behaving like a headline market. Brent crude TVC:UKOIL and WTI crude TVC:USOIL are stuck between two very different stories. One story says peace is coming. The other says geopolitical risk is still alive. That is why oil sold off first, then bounced back after fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran reminded traders that the risk premium has not fully disappeared. What I Checked **************** I checked the story from three sides: price action, news catalyst, and macro impact. Reuters reported that Brent rose nearly 2% in early Asian trading after U.S. military strikes in southern Iran, including strikes connected to Iranian boats and missile launch sites. AP also reported that the U.S. described the action as self-defense, while peace negotiations were still being discussed. The Strait of Hormuz remains the major issue. A large share of global oil and gas trade depends on Gulf shipping routes. So even a small change in war-risk perception can move oil quickly. Brent is trading around the $95 area, well below the recent panic zone, but still elevated enough to show traders have not fully removed the geopolitical premium. WTI is around the low $90s area, also showing the same mixed message. Beginner View **************** For beginners, the idea is simple. Oil usually rises when traders fear supply disruption. Oil usually falls when traders believe supply risk is going away. Right now, both forces are active. If peace headlines improve, oil can fall fast. If military headlines return, oil can bounce fast. So if the chart looks messy, that is normal. This is not only a supply-demand chart today. This is a trust chart. Why This Matters Beyond Oil **************** Oil does not move alone. Higher oil can affect inflation expectations. Inflation can affect central bank expectations. That can move the U.S. dollar, gold, bond yields, airline stocks, transport stocks, and even broad equity sentiment. So this is not just an energy-trader setup. It is a macro setup. The Institutional Angle **************** Big traders are probably not asking only, “Will oil go up or down today?” They are asking something deeper: Is the war premium shrinking? Can the market trust the peace deal headlines? Will Gulf shipping risk actually improve? Can Brent stay lower, or does every dip attract buyers again? That last question is important. If oil cannot stay down even when peace optimism is strong, it means the market still does not fully believe the risk is gone. Chart View **************** For Brent TVC:UKOIL , I would watch whether price accepts lower levels after peace headlines. If Brent stays heavy below the recent rebound area, traders may treat rallies as headline bounces. But if Brent starts reclaiming lost ground with strong momentum, that would suggest geopolitical risk is being priced back in. For WTI TVC:USOIL , the same logic applies, but Brent is cleaner for this story because it reacts more directly to global supply and Gulf-risk headlines. My Personal View **************** I would not call this a clean trend market yet. To me, this looks like a headline-driven range with sharp moves on both sides. Peace hope can push oil lower quickly, but fresh military risk can bring buyers back just as fast. So I would not trade only the news headline. I would watch how price behaves after the headline. If oil falls on peace news and stays down, the market is accepting lower risk. If oil falls on peace news but quickly recovers, traders are telling us they still do not trust the peace story. That is the real signal. The Takeaway **************** Oil is trading a trust problem. The market wants to price peace, but the chart is still respecting war risk. That makes this setup important for oil traders, macro traders, stock traders, and FX traders. Off to you: Is this oil pullback a real peace-deal reset, or is the market pricing peace too early while Middle East risk is still alive? Share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:NDX
by forextidings
Light Crudeoil Hourly Trend analysis for the week May 18-22, Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD) is approaching the key resistance level of 107. If the price moves above and sustains beyond 107, the current trend may weaken, potentially leading to a decline towards the support levels of 101.60 and 100.10 during the week. Please note that this is strictly my personal view. Since opening gaps have not been taken into consideration, the mentioned levels may vary accordingly. Traders are advised to conduct their own technical analysis for trade entries and exits.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by MastersinMarkets
CRUDE OIL: Bullish! Look To Buy Dips!Crude Oil analysis for the week of May 11-15th. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by RT_Money
WTI Light Crude oil hourly trend analysis for the week May 11-15I foresee a bullish trend in Light Crude Oil during the week of May 11 to May 15. The commodity has strong support levels at 94 and 90, while the resistance levels for the week are placed at 107 and 111. A breakout and close above the trend line marked on the chart would indicate strengthening bullish momentum for the week ahead. This is purely my personal view and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Traders are advised to perform their own technical analysis and follow proper risk management strategies for entries and exits.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by MastersinMarkets
CRUDE OIL: Look For Valid Buys As Tensions Heighten!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the CRUDE OIL for the week of April 20-24th. Crude Oil is seeking buyers amid high volatility. Following a sharp 16% drop late the previous week on reports of a reopened Strait of Hormuz, crude oil enters the April 20-24 trading week looking for buyers to establish a floor. While the immediate panic subsided, traders should watch for renewed volatility as market participants verify if supply disruptions truly ease. - Outlook: Buyers are likely looking to enter on dips, seeking a "valid" level if tensions re-escalate or if OPEC+ maintains a tight supply stance. - Key Driver: The sustainability of the ceasefire and its impact on the $100+ "war premium". Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RT_Money
CRUDE OIL: Buyers Are In Control!This is an update to the analysis of Crude Oil presented last Sunday. Crude Oil (WTI) is currently trading in a volatile, headline-driven range, roughly between $85 and $100 per barrel, with strong, immediate support near $92–$95. While geopolitical risks—specifically in the Strait of Hormuz—are driving bullish sentiment, the market is constrained by technical resistance near $100 and potential downside towards $85 if tension eases. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by RT_Money
WTI Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2026). Bull structure. AccumulationThe Dec 2026 Crude Oil (CL) futures contract offers a compelling long opportunity, trading around $76 with strong technical support and mounting geopolitical catalysts poised to ignite a multi-month rally. As shown in the provided below TradingView chart, CL exhibits a classic bullish flag pattern after rebounding from the $55 multi-year support zone, with contracting volatility signaling an imminent breakout above $68 resistance. December 2026 CL Futures (Daily, Weekly) Technical Setup The chart highlights higher lows forming since early 2026, stabilizing after decline from 2026 peaks, now entering a descending triangle resolution phase favoring upside. Key indicators align: RSI climbing from oversold levels, MACD histogram flipping positive, and volume spiking on up days. A close above $70 targets $75 initially, with extension to $80 and $100+ again by contract expiry in November 2026. Near-term catalysts include EIA inventory draws and a "Buy" technical rating on front-month contracts, spilling into Dec 2026. Fundamental Drivers OPEC+ compensation cuts totaling 4.6 million bpd through mid-2026 will tighten supply, countering recent bearish demand revisions from IEA amid Middle East tensions. Persistent low OECD inventories have prompted Goldman Sachs to hike Q4 2026 Brent forecasts to $60 (WTI $56 equivalent), but escalating Iran-related disruptions could slash supply far more, flipping markets to deficit. Surging global travel demand post-winter and U.S. production plateaus add tailwinds, with President Trump's pro-energy policies accelerating domestic constraints. This setup combines chart symmetry from the linked contract snapshot with real-world supply squeezes, positioning Dec 2026 CL for further potential gains. Weekly chart points also on a "accumulation mode", a potential "Cup and Handle" structure.
NYMEX:CLZ2026
by FinWealth
USOIL may continue to fluctuate within the 95-85 range.USOIL is currently trading in a narrow range between 90 and 93, but it is relatively weak. The easing of tensions between the US and Iran has reduced market concerns about disruptions to the crude oil supply chain, limiting the potential for a significant rise in crude oil prices; however, the arrival of the peak season for crude oil demand has provided substantial support for the price of USOIL. From a technical perspective, USOIL is currently under pressure due to the technical head and shoulders structure, and will be under pressure in the 95-97 range for the short term. The current support/resistance level is in the 91-90 range. If USOIL remains above 91-90, there is a chance it could test the 95-97 range in the short term. If USOIL falls below the 91-90 range, it is likely to continue its decline to the 87-85 range. Since USOIL does not have a clear trend in the short term, we can consider using a range-bound trading strategy to buy low and sell high. Short-term technical support: 91-90 / 87-85 Short-term technical resistance: 95-97 / 102-104 Therefore, in the short term, if USOIL rebounds to the 95-97 area first, I might consider shorting USOIL; if it retraces to the 87-85 area first, I might prioritize going long on USOIL.
FX:USOIL
by rrrayyytaken
CRUDE OIL: Peace Talks Failure Favors The Bulls!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the US OIL for the week of April 13-17th. US Crude Oil closed a very bearish week last Friday. The world was optimistic as a cease fire was put in place, and officials from both sides sat at the negotiations table in Islamabad. But the talks failed, and the US imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This resulted in a gap open above $100.00 a barrel for the new week ahead. Oh boy. We can expect the price for crude to continue to rise in the near term until there is a fundamental change for the better in the Middle East. But do not jump into buys! Wait for the market to confirm buys on a technical basis. When a premium or discount array holds or fails, this is the confirmation signal to enter new trades! Patience. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RT_Money
5
2008 IT CRASHED. 2022 IT CRASHED. 2026 — SAME WALL, SAME SETUP.One resistance line has stopped every major oil rally for 18 years. The market has never broken it. 📌 2008 — Hit the wall. Crashed from $147 to $33. 📌 2022 — Hit the wall. Collapsed from $130 to $65. 📌 2026 — Middle East conflict pushed WTI to $119.5. Resistance held. Already at $96. Same wall. Three crashes. Watch closely. 🎯 TRADE SETUP ● Resistance: $115–$124 ● Target: $70–$75 ● Invalidation: Monthly close above $124 🌍 FUNDAMENTALS CONFIRM IT ● World producing 2.5M barrels/day more than consumed ● OPEC+ chose to pump more into an already oversupplied market ● EVs, efficient engines and remote work killing oil demand permanently ● J.P. Morgan NYSE:JPM : 60% global recession probability ● U.S. Energy Information Administration expects prices to fall through late 2026 and into 2027 The geopolitical spike is temporary. The oversupply is not. 📊 Putting It All Together A rare geopolitical event just pushed NYMEX:CL1! directly into an 18-year resistance zone; the very wall that has stopped every major rally since 2008. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NaranjCapital
28
USOIL risks building: The drop has only just begun!Due to geopolitical influences, USOIL is expected to maintain a volatile but slightly bullish trend in the short term. However, as USOIL repeatedly surged and then fell back, it proved that after the sharp rise in USOIL in the early stage, the risks gradually accumulated and the market sentiment became more cautious. Moreover, the recent high around 119 is still acting as resistance, so the upside potential for USOIL is relatively limited in the short term. From a technical perspective, USOIL has formed a relatively clear rounded top pattern in the short term, with the resistance zone for this pattern located in the 116-118 area. Furthermore, if USOIL fails to hold above 115 in the short term, it is likely to form a head and shoulders pattern in conjunction with the previous peak pattern around 115 and the area around 118, which would further suppress USOIL. However, it is worth noting that the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has not yet completely subsided, so special care should be taken in trading to avoid sharp fluctuations in USOIL caused by news events! Short-term technical support levels: 108-106 / 102-100 Short-term technical resistance levels: 114-116 / 118-120 Therefore, in short-term trading, if USOIL rebounds to the 114-116 area first, I will prioritize shorting USOIL; if USOIL falls back to the 108-106 area first, I may consider trying to go long on USOIL.
FX:USOILShort
by rrrayyytaken
Sell ​​USOIL: It is expected to continue to fall under pressure.USOIL has been fluctuating at a high level in the short term, but recent trends show that it has encountered resistance and fallen back multiple times when it touched the 115-120 range. This demonstrates that as USOIL's price surged, risks gradually accumulated, leading to significant selling pressure. Meanwhile, the market's exuberant buying sentiment is gradually turning cautious. Based on the current structural pattern, USOIL is currently below 114. If USOIL cannot break through this level in the short term, it may form a head and shoulders pattern by combining the 114 and 116 levels. Once this technical pattern is successfully established, USOIL may continue to pull back due to technical resistance. Short-term technical support levels: 110 - 108 / 105 - 103 Short-term technical resistance levels: 113 - 115 / 118 - 120 Therefore, in the short term, I am more inclined to try shorting USOIL in the 112-114 range!
FX:USOILShort
by rrrayyytaken
2
WTI Crude Oil – 1W + Liquidity Sweep Before Major Reversal ZoneWTI Crude Oil – Weekly Structure Suggests Liquidity Sweep Before Major Reversal Market Overview The weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil highlights a strong impulsive rally after a prolonged period of consolidation and lower highs throughout 2024–2025. Price has recently produced a large bullish expansion candle, signaling aggressive buying pressure and a potential liquidity grab above prior swing highs. This type of movement often occurs when the market seeks resting liquidity above previous resistance zones before establishing a broader directional move. Key Structural Observations 1. Long-Term Range Formation For nearly two years, crude oil traded inside a broad horizontal range, repeatedly forming lower highs while maintaining a relatively stable support base around the $55–$60 region. During this period, multiple swing highs were formed and rejected, which created visible liquidity pools above those highs. These zones often attract price later as institutions seek liquidity to fill large orders. 2. Liquidity Build-Up Above Highs Several highlighted areas on the chart show previous rejection points where price attempted to break higher but failed. These levels became liquidity clusters, where stop-loss orders from short sellers and breakout traders accumulate. The recent bullish impulse appears to be targeting these liquidity zones. 3. Explosive Bullish Expansion The latest weekly candles show a sharp vertical rally from the $60 area toward $90+, representing a strong momentum shift. Such aggressive price expansion typically indicates: Short covering Breakout traders entering Institutional liquidity sweep However, historically, parabolic moves into major resistance often lead to exhaustion once liquidity has been taken. Major Resistance & Reversal Zone A major macro resistance zone lies between approximately $100 – $108. This area is significant because it represents: Historical weekly resistance Psychological round number ($100) Liquidity above multi-year highs Potential institutional distribution zone If price continues its upward momentum, this region becomes a high-probability reaction zone where the market may begin showing signs of exhaustion. Potential Scenario Bullish Continuation (Short-Term) Price may continue pushing higher toward the $100–$108 liquidity zone to complete the liquidity sweep. Reversal Confirmation Once price reaches the zone, traders should watch for confirmation signals such as: Weekly rejection wicks Bearish engulfing candles Market structure shift on lower timeframes Decreasing bullish momentum If confirmation appears, the market could begin a macro corrective phase. Possible Bearish Targets After Reversal If the major reversal plays out, price could gradually rotate back toward key structural supports: $88 – $90 → first reaction zone $76 – $78 → mid-range structure support $64 – $68 → previous demand region These levels previously acted as consolidation areas and may attract price again during a retracement phase. Market Psychology Behind the Move This setup reflects a classic "liquidity engineering" pattern often seen in commodities markets: Market consolidates and forms repeated highs Liquidity accumulates above resistance Strong breakout sweeps stop-loss orders Price reaches major resistance Smart money distributes positions before reversal Trading Strategy Consideration Traders should avoid early short entries during strong bullish momentum. Instead, patience is key: Allow price to reach the major reversal zone Wait for clear bearish confirmation Enter after market structure shift This approach helps reduce the risk of getting trapped in continuation rallies. Final Thoughts While the current momentum favors bulls in the short term, the broader weekly structure suggests the market may be approaching a critical decision point. The $100–$108 region will likely determine whether crude oil continues its bullish expansion or transitions into a large-scale corrective move. Monitoring price behavior within this zone will be essential for identifying the next major directional move.
FX:USOILLong
by GoldMasterTrades
Will Crude Oil Markets React to Maduro's Arrest: Trading Setup🚨 Crude oil could see a significant GAP with futures open! The impact of the "breaking news" regarding President Maduro's capture and extradition on "crude oil" prices, especially for the "market open" this Sunday. The crude oil market is at a significant turning point as it tests the 57.32 level. Technically, the price is squeezed between a firm resistance at 61.06 and a multi-month floor at 54.68. While the recent arrest of Venezuela's president initially created a risk premium, analysts expect the long-term impact to be bearish if new investments eventually boost Venezuelan supply. For now, the trend remains heavy, with rallies likely to find sellers near the 60.00 mark. #CrudeOil #Trading #WTI #OPEC #EnergyMarket #Investing #MarketAnalysis
NYMEX:CLG2026
by TheMotivationalProfessor
6 Back-to-Back Winning Trades Using Ellipse Price Action.6 Back-to-Back Winning Trades Using Ellipse Price Action Indicator (Crude Oil · 1H) Ellipse Price Action Indicator captured 6 clean winning entries on MCX Crude Oil (1-Hour). The system is simple: ✔ Indicator gives Buy/Sell Signal (Green/Red Triangle or Orange Arrow) ✔ Take entry only when price is outside the Ellipse boundary ✔ Exit strictly at the Moving Average (MA) ✔ Never trade in the middle zone or when price is sitting on the MA ✔ Follow stop loss at opposite side of the ellipse Trade-by-Trade Breakdown 1.🔻 Signal-1 → Short Entry → WIN Indicator gave Short Signal-1 at ellipse top Price dropped smoothly Take Profit at MA for Trade-1 ✔ Clean reversal trade 2.🟢 Signal-2 → Long Entry → WIN Oversold conditions + indicator gave Long Signal-2 Strong bounce from lower ellipse Exit at Moving Average for trade-2 ✔ System worked beautifully — TP hit immediately 3.🟢 Signal-3 → Long Entry → WIN Price again touched lower ellipse Indicator gave Long Signal-3 Clean breakout candle Take Profit at MA for trade-3 ✔ Another textbook reversal 4.🟢 Signal-4 → Long Entry → WIN Third buying zone from ellipse bottom Long Signal-4 triggered Strong continuation move Take Profit at MA for trade-4 ✔ Perfect bounce-to-MA setup 5. 🔻 Signal-5 → Short Entry → WIN Price rejected exactly at upper ellipse boundary Indicator gave Short Signal-5 Trend followed down toward MA Take Profit at MA for trade -5 ✔ High-probability entry in sell zone 6. 🔻 Signal-6 → Short Entry → WIN Compression high + overbought zone Short Signal-6 activated Smooth drop Take Profit at MA for trade-6 ✔ Final clean short as per system rules 4️⃣ BEST ENTRY ZONES Long at Lower Ellipse Boundary Short at Upper Ellipse Boundary Avoid central zone completely 2️⃣ EXIT RULE (VERY IMPORTANT) ✔ Exit 100% of the trade at the Moving Average This rule alone protects profits and avoids reversals. 5️⃣ RISK MANAGEMENT 0.5–1% risk per trade Never add positions in the middle zone Trade only clear signals with confirmed direction 🔥 Why This Indicator Works So Well Your screenshot demonstrates: ✔ Automatic reversal detection ✔ Early trend shifts ✔ Compression + expansion zones ✔ Perfect MA exits ✔ No repainting structure ✔ High-probability entries at ellipse extremes 📌 FINAL POST CAPTION (Copy–Paste for TradingView) "6 Winning Trades in a Row — Ellipse Price Action Indicator (Crude Oil 1H). Buy/Sell Signals only at boundaries. Strict exit at MA. Zero trades in middle zone → Zero noise → Maximum accuracy." (Follow and Boost Script and Idea) MCX:CRUDEOILM1!
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Education
by BK_QuantDesk
4
Oil Market: Bearish to neutral — potential for a rebound if $6,0Oil Market: Bearish to neutral — potential for a rebound if $6,000 holds Crude and gasoline prices fell on Oct. 9 as market sentiment shifted amid rising supply expectations. OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137,000 bpd starting November, well below expectations of a 500,000 bpd hike. The group continues to unwind earlier cuts, aiming to restore 1.66 million bpd of production by year-end. OPEC’s September output rose 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, a 2.5-year high. On Oct. 10 supply concerns eased after Israel accepted a U.S.-brokered cease-fire deal in Gaza, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Still, new U.S. sanctions on Iran—targeting over 50 entities linked to oil and LPG trade—helped limit further losses. Russian supply disruptions remain a supportive factor after drone attacks forced shutdowns at key refineries, while floating storage volumes fell 7% week-on-week to 82.8 million barrels, signaling tighter near-term supply. Meanwhile, Iraq’s plan to resume Kurdish exports (up to 500,000 bpd) could weigh on prices, offsetting some of the geopolitical support. EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories 4.5% below the 5-year average, with production up 0.9% w/w to 13.63 million bpd, near record highs. Active U.S. oil rigs slipped by two to 422, just above the four-year low. Outlook: Crude oil continues to display a bearish short-term structure, extending its recent downtrend after failing to sustain above the $6,300–$6,350 resistance zone. The price has now revisited the local support area around $6,050–$6,000, which has acted as a key pivot level in recent sessions. ANZ Research expects near-term downside risks amid higher OPEC+ supply and weaker refinery demand, though low stockpiles outside China may cushion prices into 2026. A clean rebound from $6,000 could trigger a short-covering move toward $6,200–$6,300.
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Crude Oil: Bearish FVG in Play Amid ConsolidationFenzoFx—Crude Oil is trading at $64.18, slightly below the bearish fair value gap. The sweep of yesterday’s lows suggests potential for a test of higher resistance. Immediate support is at $63.80. If this level holds, Oil may fill the bearish FVG and test resistance at $65.00. A break above could extend gains toward $66.50. However, if price declines and stabilizes below $63.80, the bullish outlook is invalidated. In that case, the downtrend may resume, targeting the equal lows at $62.20.
CFI:WTI
by JacksonJoel