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BTCUSD Long: Small Correction and Pump to new ATHHello, traders! The prior market structure for BTCUSD saw a powerful breakout from an ascending channel, which propelled the price to a new all-time high of 125600. Following this peak, the market has entered a new consolidation phase, forming a high-level range between the new ATH and the key support area around the 120400 level. Currently, the price is in a corrective phase within this new range. After an initial drop from the highs and a minor bounce, the auction is heading back towards the major support zone located around the 120400 level for what I believe will be a decisive test of buyer strength. My scenario for the development of events is a successful re-accumulation within this range. I believe the price will complete its correction down to the 120400 support zone. In my opinion, a confirmed bounce from this area will signal the end of the pullback and trigger the next impulsive wave higher, breaking the top of the range. The take-profit is therefore set at 125700, targeting a new ATH. Manage your risk!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by heniitrading
4
Bittensor (TAO): Undervalued AI Crypto Gem Amid #Crypto Revival?Bittensor (TAO): Undervalued AI Crypto Gem Amid #Crypto Revival? $600+ in Sight? 📈 At $316.43 (+1.5%), TAO's market cap of $3.03B undervalues its DeAI ecosystem, with FDV at $6.62B hinting at growth—could #AI and #Crypto trends push it toward Bitcoin-like status? 🚀 **Fundamental Analysis** With circulating supply of 9.6M and total 21M, TAO powers decentralized AI compute; undervalued per community sentiment, positives include modular AI infrastructure, though early-stage risks persist. - **Positive:** Strong ecosystem partnerships (e.g., Google Cloud); bullish community sentiment. - **Negative:** High volatility typical of altcoins; limited mainstream adoption yet. **SWOT Analysis** **Strengths:** Pioneering AI-blockchain fusion; capped supply scarcity. **Weaknesses:** Dependency on AI hype; technical complexity. **Opportunities:** Expanding DeAI use cases; listings on major exchanges. **Threats:** Regulatory scrutiny on crypto; competition from centralized AI. **Technical Analysis** Chart exhibits strong uptrend with recent 7.2% weekly gain. Price: $316.43, VWAP N/A for crypto. Key indicators: - RSI: 60 (bullish, not overextended). - MACD: Positive, confirming upward momentum. - Moving Averages: 50-day at $300 (support hold), 200-day at $250 (long bull trend). Support/Resistance: Support at $310, resistance at $320. Patterns/Momentum: Breakout from consolidation, momentum favoring bulls. 📈 Bullish | ⚠️ Bearish. **Scenarios and Risk Management** - **Bullish:** Surge above $320, DCA in for scaled entry amid #AI buzz. - **Bearish:** Retreat to $310 on market dips, trim holdings. - **Neutral:** Hover around current levels pending news. Risk Tips: Stops at 10% drawdown, risk no more than 1% portfolio, diversify crypto holdings, DCA to average volatility. ⚠️ **Conclusion/Outlook** Bullish if #Crypto and #AI converge. Watch exchange listings. Fits innovative theme with upside. Take? Comment!
BINANCE:TAOUSDLong
by DCAChampion
BTC - Distribution after ATH sweepMarket Context Bitcoin has completed a clear liquidity sweep at the all-time high (ATH) and is now transitioning into a corrective phase. After taking all the liquidity above the prior high, price aggressively rejected and shifted structure to the downside, signaling that smart money may now be engineering a retracement. The move lower has found a temporary pause within a lower accumulation zone where liquidity is rebuilding. Fair Value Gaps & Manipulation Following the ATH sweep, price manipulated back into a fair value gap (FVG) chain, where it met resistance. This area acted as a precise reaction point, rejecting further bullish attempts and confirming the FVG as an active supply zone. Each touch into this chain has resulted in lower highs, supporting the idea that distribution is underway. The fair value gaps below are likely to be targeted next as price seeks efficiency. Liquidity Dynamics Liquidity above has already been collected — the current draw now lies beneath. The accumulation zone below current price holds resting sell-side liquidity, and the market could aim to fill those inefficiencies before finding new demand. A retracement into these lower levels would act as a healthy correction to the prior bullish impulse, maintaining structural balance. Final Thoughts The market has shifted from an aggressive expansion phase to a potential distribution stage. With liquidity taken at the highs and FVGs now providing resistance, the bias leans toward a corrective move lower before any renewed bullish continuation. A break below the local accumulation floor would confirm deeper targets. If this breakdown helped clarify the current BTC structure, a like is always appreciated — and let me know: are you positioning for the correction, or waiting for the next bullish leg to form?
Short
by Louigi_24
73
ALGO on the Edge: Will the Next Move Catch Everyone Off Guard?Yello Paradisers, are you prepared for what could be the breakout that surprises the entire market? While most traders are distracted, #ALGOUSDT is quietly compressing inside a clean descending wedge structure, and the pressure is reaching a critical point. 💎After weeks of bleeding, #ALGO has established a solid base within the major demand zone between $0.185 and $0.20. This area has held strong multiple times, showing clear signs of aggressive buying each time price touches down. It’s no coincidence this zone is being defended, and smart money knows it. 💎Price is now consolidating just below the descending resistance line, and every touch to the downside has become weaker, signaling a potential shift in market control. If momentum builds from here, a confirmed breakout above the $0.23 level could open the path toward higher targets. The $0.26 region will likely act as the first minor resistance, followed by stronger supply zones around $0.288 and $0.3289, where historical selling has previously stepped in. 💎However, as always, we must stay grounded in probabilities. Invalidation sits clearly below $0.1615. A break beneath that level would invalidate the bullish structure and shift the momentum back into the hands of the bears. 💎Until then, this remains a high-probability accumulation pattern. But remember, the market often fakes in one direction before delivering the real move. That means a final shakeout can’t be ruled out before the breakout. This is where emotional traders get liquidated and where the disciplined ones wait with confidence. Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. This is the only way you will make it far in your crypto trading journey. Be a PRO. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
#RVN Ready for an Explosive Bullish Move | Must Watch For BullsYello Paradisers! #RVN just broke out of the descending channel exactly as we expected... but will it hold this time, or is this another fakeout? Let’s break down this #Ravencoin setup: 💎#RVNUSDT has been trading inside a well-respected falling wedge since July. After multiple rejections from the descending resistance, the price is about to break out and close above the structure. This move will also reclaim the 50EMA, which will act as support. If this EMA continues to hold, it will increase the probability of continuation to the upside. 💎The key bullish confirmation here is not just the breakout, but the structure of support forming right above the previously broken resistance line. This creates a possible bullish flip, turning old resistance into new support — one of the cleanest continuation patterns we look for. 💎If the current breakout holds, the next target for #RVNUSD to watch is at 0.015. A clean daily close and hold above that level would open the door for a stronger move toward 0.018, which is the next major resistance zone based on the volume profile. 💎Price is now holding above the strong support at 0.01052, and as long as we remain above the demand zone between 0.01052 and 0.00943, the bullish setup is valid. This area is now our invalidation level. A break below this zone would invalidate the structure and open up further downside. Strive for consistency, wait for clear confirmations, and remember that discipline always beats chasing quick profits. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
2
XRP Daily – Can the 0.236 Fib Hold Again?XRP Daily – Testing Support at the 0.236 Fib Level XRP is once again trading in the green support area that has held since the beginning of August. This zone aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level and forms the base of a descending triangle, with the series of lower highs creating its upper boundary. Price has also lost the 50MA, and from a system perspective, the structure confirms a short-term downtrend, with Price < MLR < SMA < BBcenter. If this triangle breaks to the downside, the next significant support sits at the 200MA at $2.60. Momentum indicators remain weak: RSI is below its moving average and trending downward, while MACD has already turned red, showing fading strength. With the broader market showing signs of consolidation after BTC ATH, XRP reaction here could reveal how altcoins handle pressure at key supports. For now, this support zone remains key; losing it would confirm a bearish breakout from the triangle pattern. Bias: Short-term bearish, watching the 0.236 Fib and 200MA as critical levels for reaction. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
by vagada
WLFI Daily – Key Support Broken After Multiple HoldsWLFI Daily – Losing Key Support at the 0.5 Level WLFI has lost the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 0.1798, a support zone that held multiple times: first during the early September TGE dump, and again on October 7 and 8. Yesterday, October 9, marked the first daily close below this level, and today price continues to trade under it. Unless WLFI manages to reclaim 0.1798 by today’s close, the downtrend is likely to continue. From a system perspective, momentum remains bearish: Price < MLR < SMA < BB Center, confirming a short-term downtrend. The next possible support lies around the dotted line, but a retest of the 0 Fib level at 0.1611 looks increasingly likely if weakness persists. The broader market has shown early signs of cooling after BTC’s ATH, and WLFI’s price action is now reflecting that shift in sentiment. At this stage, risk management is essential, catching a falling market without confirmation often leads to deeper drawdowns. Bias: Bearish, structure weakening further below 0.5 Fib; watching for reaction near dotted line. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
by vagada
BTCUSD – Key Decision Zone Forming Between 121.7K–122.3K | Bitcoin is currently retesting a key supply zone around 121.7K–122.3K, aligning with previous structure highs and imbalance. This zone will likely determine the next major intraday move. Market Outlook: 📊 Previous Day High: 123,841 – acts as upside liquidity target 🟨 Key Zone: 121.7K–122.3K (potential reaction area) 🧠 Scenarios: Bullish: Clean break + retest above 122.3K → targets 123.8K Bearish: Rejection from the zone → move back to 119.7K (previous day low) ⚖️ Bias: Neutral until breakout confirmation Smart traders will wait for a liquidity sweep + confirmation candle before committing. Stay patient — volatility incoming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheWallstreetCapital
$BTCUSDT Analysis - Oct 10 | 4H Time FrameBINANCE:BTCUSD Analysis - 4H Hello and welcome to another analysis from the Satoshi Frame team! I’m Abolfazl, and today we’re going to analyze Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe. Bitcoin’s current all time high stands at $126,199! Price has tapped into a demand zone, which could potentially trigger a bullish move toward this high. This zone is worth the risk, and it’s recommended to look for buy positions on the 15-minute timeframe, targeting $130,000. See you in the next analyses! Stay tuned with the Satoshi Frame team...
Long
by Satoshimultiframe
BNB Daily – Between Resistance and ContinuationBNB Daily – After the Run, Testing Its Range Since July, BNB has delivered an impressive rally. Back then, price was sitting near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and from there it climbed all the way to a new all-time high at the 161.8% Fib extension, which is now acting as resistance. On October 7 and 8, intraday moves briefly pushed above this level, but both sessions failed to close above it, leading to a clear rejection on October 9, confirmed by a large downside volume bar. From a system perspective, the structure remains in an uptrend, with MLR > SMA > Price > BBc indicating that despite the pullback, the broader bullish structure is still valid. Key levels to watch: Resistance: 161.8% Fib at $1310 Support: BB Center (orange) at $1198 If BNB can hold above the BB Center, it keeps the upper hand and could attempt another move toward its ATH. However, a daily close below the BB Center would shift the short-term momentum bearish, opening room for further downside. Periods like this often decide whether a move becomes continuation or distribution: patience around key levels pays off. Bias: Neutral-bullish — uptrend intact, but watching the BB Center closely for confirmation. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
by vagada
ETH Daily – Pullback After Rejection, Eyes on 0.5 FibETH Daily – Rejected at the Highs, Searching for Support ETH was once again rejected from the ATH zone on Monday, October 6, failing to establish a breakout above resistance. After losing the 50MA, price is now approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $4321, which could serve as the next key support area. From a system perspective, the structure reads: Price < SMA < MLR < BB Center — confirming a short-term bearish trend. Momentum indicators also point to weakness: RSI has crossed below its moving average, and MACD is starting to turn red. This pullback mirrors broader market consolidation after BTC’s ATH, showing that ETH remains sensitive to overall liquidity flows. For now, the short-term bias remains bearish unless price manages to hold the 0.5 Fib support and stabilize around it. A close above that level would be the first sign of potential recovery. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
by vagada
BTC Daily – After the ATH, The Market Takes a Breath BTC tapped the 161.8% Fib. level, setting a new all-time high of 126K on Monday, October 6. Since then, price has retraced to the BB Center and today’s candle opened below it. If today’s close remains under the BB Center, there’s a strong chance for another leg down in the short term. From a system perspective, momentum is tilting bearish: Price < BB Center < SMA < MLR, confirming short-term weakness. RSI has crossed below its moving average, and MACD is about to turn red. All signs point to a cooling phase after the run to new highs, a normal reset within a larger cycle. Bias: Short-term bearish, healthy pullback after overextension. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by vagada
ETH Game Plan – DLRMD ModelETH Game Plan – DLRMD Model 📊 Market Sentiment The FED has resumed its rate-cutting cycle with a 0.25% cut in September and two more expected in the coming months. Institutional liquidity inflows are accelerating as the U.S. officially adopts crypto as part of its reserves. While inflation remains elevated, a weakening labor market is pushing the FED to ease, channeling more capital into risk-on assets such as crypto. 📈 Technical Analysis ETH ran the weekly swing low and closed above, signaling a shift in structure. A strong daily structure break followed, forming a fresh daily demand zone. The first tap into this demand zone resulted in a solid rejection — confirming its validity. Afterward, price briefly deviated above the lower time frame bearish trendline, then retraced back, showing potential accumulation before the next leg up. 📘 Model to be used – HTF Demand w/ Liquidity Run & Max Discount Zone (DLRMD Model) 1-Identify the HTF trend and take setups only in that direction. 2-Mark the active HTF demand zone. 3-Confirm liquidity sweep within that zone. 4-Use Fibonacci retracement to locate the 0.75 max discount area. 5-Wait for LTF confirmation before entering. 📌 Game Plan I’ll be waiting for price to return and retest the daily demand zone, ideally running the 12H swing liquidity at $4,090 and tapping the 0.75 max discount zone around $4,050 before considering entry. 🎯 Setup Trigger 4H structure break confirmation after price taps the $4,050 level. 📋 Trade Management Entry: $4,050 (expected zone) Stoploss: Below the 4H swing low that breaks structure Targets: TP1: Bearish trendline retest (≈$4,445) TP2: All-time high (≈$4,965) Once TP1 is reached, I’ll move stoploss to breakeven and manage partials actively. 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Why traders are losing money? Position Size PurposeWhy traders are losing money Most traders do not lose because the market is hostile or because entries are bad. They lose because the size of each position is out of sync with account size, with volatility, and with a realistic pain threshold. They also stack correlated exposure until a normal downswing becomes a career ending drawdown. The fix is a repeatable sizing process that keeps losses small, keeps risk per trade constant across regimes, and caps total open risk across the book. Root causes of loss clustering Risk per trade that is too large for the real account balance that is available for trading Stops that ignore volatility so a quiet week and a fast week carry the same unit count while loss size swings wildly Portfolio heat that compounds across correlated positions in the same theme or factor Inconsistent exits so a written stop is moved or ignored after the position is open Scaling rules that add size before the trade earns the right to carry more risk A review loop that tracks money rather than R so results are not comparable across instruments One principle to anchor the lesson Risk lives in the distance between entry and stop. Size lives in how much money you are willing to risk on that distance. Everything else is detail. When you fix these two elements the account stops bleeding from one mistake and the equity curve starts to respect your personal pain limits. The unit formula in plain words Units equals Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Stop distance equals Entry minus Stop in price units For futures or forex convert the distance to money with tick or pip value before you divide Round the result to the venue step size Percent risk formula and worked example Set a realistic risk percent Pick a range between zero point two five and one point zero percent of account per trade If you are new stay closer to zero point two five If you are experienced and you follow rules under pressure stay near zero point five to one point zero Use only capital that is truly available for trading Define the stop with intent You can define a stop by price structure or by volatility. Structure is a level that invalidates the setup. Volatility is a multiple of the average true range. Both work if you keep the rule stable. The aim is not to predict a perfect level. The aim is to measure distance so you can compute size with precision and keep loss per trade constant in money terms. Volatility aware sizing When the average true range doubles you must expect larger swings. If you keep the same unit count the same entry to stop distance will cost twice as much. A simple way to neutralise this effect is to tie the stop to a multiple of the average true range and then let the unit count float. When volatility rises the unit count shrinks. When volatility calms the unit count grows. Risk per trade stays constant. Practice example Risk money equals one hundred Stop distance equals three point zero in a calm regime Units equals one hundred divided by three which is thirty three units rounded If volatility doubles and the stop distance becomes six point zero the new unit count becomes sixteen units rounded Loss per trade stays near one hundred in both regimes Portfolio heat in clear numbers Portfolio heat is the sum of risk money across all open trades as a percent of account. If you allow the sum to balloon during correlated trends you are betting the entire account on one theme. A simple cap keeps you in business. Set a heat cap between four and eight percent of account Count correlated positions as one theme for heat If a new trade would push heat above the cap you must reduce size or defer the trade Keep a cash buffer for slippage and gap risk Heat includes correlated risk. Keep combined open risk under your limit R multiple as the common unit R is the unit that equals your risk per trade. If you risk one hundred then one R is one hundred. A two R gain is two hundred. A one R loss is one hundred. Because R normalises money across instruments and timeframes you can compare strategies without confusion. When you review your trades in R the mind stops obsessing about price and starts focusing on process. Expectancy in words and numbers Expectancy is the average R result per trade. It depends on win rate and payoff ratio. You do not need equations to grasp it. You can compute it with simple mental math. Practice example A Win rate equals forty five percent Average win equals two point two R Average loss equals one point zero R For every ten trades wins contribute nine point nine R and losses subtract five point five R Expectancy equals four point four R per ten trades or zero point four four R per trade before fees Practice example B Win rate equals thirty five percent Average win equals three point zero R Average loss equals one point zero R For every ten trades wins contribute ten point five R and losses subtract six point five R Expectancy equals four point zero R per ten trades or zero point four R per trade before fees The shape of expectancy changes when volatility changes. If you keep risk per trade constant and let the unit count respond to stop distance expectancy measured in R will be more stable across regimes. That stability translates into better position control and calmer decision making. Why money management fails in practice Traders set a risk percent but do not compute units from entry and stop before the order They move the stop after position entry and invalidate the size calculation They add to losers because the entry feels almost right and average down risk with no plan They never reduce size after a loss streak so the book enters a feedback loop where a normal downswing becomes a spiral They treat wins as proof of skill and losses as anomalies rather than counting both in R and accepting variance A position sizing workflow you can follow every time Write the setup and the trigger in one line Define the stop with a structure rule or with a multiple of the average true range Measure the stop distance in price units Select the risk percent that fits your current equity and your mental state Convert the stop distance to money if the instrument uses ticks or pips Compute units as Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Round to the venue step size and check that the notional fits practical constraints Place the order only after the number of units is in the ticket and the stop is written Scaling with intent Scaling is not a trick to force a trade to work. Scaling is a way to stage risk through time. The rule is simple. Add size only after the trade earns the right to carry more risk. Reduce risk when momentum fades or when volatility rises. One simple scale plan Enter half size when volatility is rising or when the theme is crowded Add the second half only after the trade moves one R in your favour Move the stop to reduce open risk when the second half is added Do not exceed the heat cap across the book after the add Compute size. Check heat. Execute only if rules align Comparator versus buy and hold Buy and hold does not respect a personal pain limit. It lets drawdown float with price. A sized trade fixes the maximum loss in money terms at the start. The difference is not ideology. The difference is the choice to survive. Practice scenario Price falls ten percent after entry in a fast regime A buy and hold position shows a ten percent account drawdown if one position equals the entire account A sized trade with one percent risk shows a one percent account drawdown by design The sized trade can take many attempts because capital is preserved for the next signal Kelly fraction and optimal f cautions Kelly and optimal f are powerful in theory. They aim to maximise growth for a known edge. Real trading edges drift and sample sizes are small. Full Kelly creates deep drawdowns and can trigger a behavioural spiral. If you decide to use these methods treat the fraction as a ceiling rather than a target and remain near half Kelly or less. Always measure drawdown in R and reduce size after a loss streak. Loss streak protocol Loss streaks are part of variance. A simple protocol keeps them from damaging your decision cycle. After four consecutive losses reduce risk per trade by half Freeze adds and focus on clean entries only Review the last ten trades in R and tag any rule violations Return to the base risk percent only after a new equity high or after a full week of clean execution Heat management across themes The book is a living system. A theme can be a sector a factor a style or a macro driver. If four positions express the same theme treat them as one for heat. The market does not care that the tickers differ. Correlation in stress is the rule. The heat cap is your defence against that correlation. Fees and slippage discipline Small edges die from friction. If your average win is near one R and your average loss is near one R you must protect that edge by keeping fees and slippage small. Choose venues with adequate liquidity. Avoid market orders during news bursts. Use limit orders to control entry and exit where practical. Assume a realistic round trip fee in your backtests so that live results match expectations. Journaling that actually helps Your journal should capture rules and numbers rather than emotions alone. Use a compact template. Setup name and trigger Entry price and stop price Risk money and unit count Reason for the stop placement Exit reason and realized R Any deviation from the plan Practice drills to build fluency Speed matters during live markets. These drills train your sizing reflexes. Drill one. Percent risk to units Account equals twenty thousand Risk equals one percent which is two hundred Stop distance equals zero point eight Units equals two hundred divided by zero point eight which is two hundred fifty units Drill two. Volatility step change Risk equals one hundred fifty Stop at two average true range equals three point two which gives forty six units rounded If the average true range rises by fifty percent the stop becomes four point eight and units become thirty one rounded Loss per trade remains near one hundred fifty Drill three. Futures or forex conversion Risk equals three hundred Stop equals twenty ticks Tick value equals twelve point five Stop distance in money equals two hundred fifty Contracts equals three hundred divided by two hundred fifty which is one contract with a small buffer for slippage Drill four. Heat check Four open trades at one percent risk each looks like four percent heat If three of them are the same theme treat them as one for heat Effective heat is closer to three percent and a new trade in that theme should be deferred Checklist before every order Is the setup valid according to the written rule Is the stop defined by structure or by a multiple of the average true range Have you measured the stop distance correctly Is the risk percent chosen and written on the ticket Are units computed from Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Does the book stay under the heat cap after this order Are you in a loss streak that requires reduced size Common myths to retire Myth. Bigger size proves conviction. Reality. Bigger size proves you have abandoned process Myth. A tight stop is always better. Reality. A stop that ignores volatility will be hit by noise Myth. Averaging down improves price. Reality. Averaging down expands risk without proof that the idea is valid Myth. A few big winners will save the month. Reality. A few big losers can end the year How to adapt across timeframes The rules above are timeframe agnostic. Shorter timeframes require tighter execution and more attention to fees. Longer timeframes require more patience and a wider cash buffer for gaps. In both cases the math does not change. You measure distance. You set risk money. You compute units. You respect the heat cap. You review in R. Edge drift and regime change Edges do not vanish overnight. They drift when the crowd learns the pattern or when macro drivers shift. Your sizing process makes you resilient to drift. Because risk per trade is fixed a flat or negative edge bleeds slowly and gives you time to notice and step back. If you see expectancy in R slide over a thirty or fifty trade sample reduce size and review the rule set before you push the gas again. Putting it all together A trader who sizes by feel can enjoy a series of quick gains and then give it back in one week. A trader who sizes by rule can be wrong half the time and still grow steadily. The difference is not superior prediction. The difference is the choice to define loss before entry to respect volatility and to cap heat so a cluster of normal losers does not become a personal crisis. A compact template you can copy Setup name and timeframe Entry trigger in one sentence Stop rule. Structure or two average true range or another clearly written rule Account and risk percent Stop distance in price units and in money Units computed and rounded to step size Heat check across the book and across the theme Planned targets in R and exit rules Bottom line Risk per trade must be small and stable Stops must respect volatility Portfolio heat must remain inside a hard cap Review results in R and adjust size after loss streaks Let the unit count float with volatility so risk money per trade remains constant Education Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. Test every rule with historical data before risking capital. The lesson below is theory with practice drills you can apply to any liquid instrument and any timeframe.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by exlux
CELR NEW CYCLE ON WAYCELER NETWORK (CELR/USDT) — Cycle Bottom Formed, Reversal Phase Loading 🔄 CELR is showing clear signs of accumulation near the cycle bottom zone between $0.0066 – $0.0088, a range historically known for reversals and strong recovery moves. 📉 Accumulation Base: $0.0066 – $0.0088 🟢 Current Structure: CELR is stabilizing after prolonged downtrend pressure, building strength in a low volatility range — often a signal before a new expansion phase. 📈 Next Major Targets: First resistance zone: $0.0205 Main cycle target: $0.0326 A breakout confirmation above $0.0100 would likely activate a new bullish cycle, potentially mirroring previous macro moves from similar levels. Summary: CELR/USDT is trading in its historical low region, suggesting a high-reward accumulation zone. As momentum returns to mid-cap alts, CELR could be among those leading the next cycle push. 🎯 Targets: $0.0205 → $0.0326 📊 Bias: Bullish Accumulation Phase
Long
by SatochiTrader
Bitcoin (BTC), End of Cycle Season Based on Cycle DurationBINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin appears to have already formed its peak within the current bullish cycle and may now be preparing for a correction. Alternatively, if BTC makes another attempt to reach a new all-time high within October, that period could mark the final peak of this cycle. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has shown a repeating pattern — an uptrend lasting approximately 3 years and 11 months (1,065 days) from the bottom, followed by a downtrend of about 1 year (365 days) from the peak. During down cycles, the cycle low has typically formed between the EMA 50 and EMA 100. Backtesting monthly charts shows that Bitcoin often breaks below the EMA 50, finds support above the EMA 100, and then breaks through the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling the start of a new bullish cycle. Become an early follower and be part of the journey.🚀 I am Korean and I used Google Translate.
Short
by Now_Trading
$XRP – Let’s Do It Again!!XRP is once again retesting its daily support zone around $2.60–$2.80, the same level that triggered multiple bullish impulses in recent months. As long as this red support zone holds, I’ll keep looking for long setups targeting the $3.10–$3.20 supply area. A daily close below $2.60 would invalidate the setup and shift focus toward the $2.30 support before any potential rebound. It’s the same play, same level, and the same structure. Let’s see if XRP delivers again! 💪 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
4
ETHUSDT: Minor Pullback After Rally, Signs of Ongoing RecoveryHello everyone, after reaching the recent peak near $4,500, Ethereum is showing signs of a mild correction. However, the decline quickly stabilised around $4,440, where buyers re-entered, and the Ichimoku cloud continues to provide solid support on the 4H chart. Technically, ETH remains in a bullish structure with a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The Fair Value Gaps (FVG) created during the previous rally are yet to be fully filled, suggesting the market could see brief retests before resuming its upward movement. The recent pullback is mainly driven by macro factors. Comments from several Fed officials hinted that monetary tightening could persist longer than expected, strengthening the USD and real yields, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. At the same time, stronger-than-expected CPI and PCE data in the US have reignited inflation concerns, further boosting the dollar. This, combined with a temporary rotation into safe-haven assets, triggered short-term profit-taking in Ethereum. Nonetheless, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. As long as the price stays above $4,400–$4,350, Ethereum is likely to recover towards $4,500 and potentially extend to $4,600. The short-term invalidation level lies at $4,350 — a close below that could open the door to a deeper pullback towards $4,250. Personally, I believe this is just a “breather” in Ethereum’s broader bullish trend. What about you — do you think ETH will soon reclaim $4,500, or will it need one more dip before rallying higher again?
Long
by EmmaChartist
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Trading Psychology Bias Lesson: BTCUSD 1D ATR Position SizeSummary Bias shifts judgment under stress and often decides outcomes before the order ticket. This idea converts trading psychology into rules you can apply on BTCUSD now. It uses fixed ATR stops, pre defined entries and exits, a written disconfirming note before any order, and decision grades based on rule adherence. The goal is tighter drawdowns and consistent execution across regimes. Live context Price 123,102 SMA 50 114,314 EMA 200 106,289 ATR 14 daily 2,882.52 which is 2.34% of price Distance to SMA 50 is 8,788 which is 7.14% Distance to EMA 200 is 16,813 which is 13.66% 2 x ATR equals 5,765.04 which is 4.68% Why psychology decides the trade before entry Real trading includes noise, limited attention, and emotion. The result is bias, a stable tendency that pulls choices away from the written rule. Bias creeps into 4 moments: setup definition, entry trigger, position size, exit and review. The fix is structure. Use 5 blocks: a 1 sentence setup, entry and stop and trail defined with ATR, a written disconfirming note, a higher timeframe check, and a post trade grade by rule adherence rather than outcome. Theory. Core biases you must neutralize Loss aversion . Loss pain exceeds gain pleasure and leads to widening stops or cutting winners early. Fix . Initial stop equals 2 x ATR. Trail equals 1 x ATR or a close through a moving reference. Never widen stops. Confirmation bias . You search for evidence that agrees with your idea. Fix . Write 1 disconfirming fact before any order. Check the next higher timeframe. If it disagrees, cut size by 50% or skip. Anchoring . You fixate on entry or a round level. Fix . Define exits on structure with ATR or a moving average close. Name the anchor in notes to reduce its pull. Recency and availability . You overweight the last 1 to 3 candles. Fix . Use a 20 bar context rule and a weekly system review. Overconfidence . After a win trade count and size increase without any change in edge. Fix . Cool down 2 minutes after every exit and halve next size after a large winner. Herd and gambler’s fallacy . Late entries on wide candles and belief that streaks must continue or must reverse. Fix . Only take trades with projected reward to risk at least 2 to 1 at the planned stop and avoid high impact events. Hindsight and outcome bias . You judge by result and rewrite rules after 1 loss. Fix . Save entry and exit screenshots and grade by rule adherence. Status quo and endowment . You sit in positions you already own while better setups exist. Fix . Monthly retest of every holding against current rules. Three guardrail rules for BTCUSD Stop discipline. Initial stop equals 2 x ATR. Trail winners by 1 x ATR or by a daily close through SMA 50. Do not widen stops. Decision hygiene. Before every order write 1 disconfirming fact and check the next higher timeframe. If the higher timeframe disagrees, cut size by 50% or skip. Quality floor. Projected reward to risk is at least 2 to 1 at the initial stop distance. BTCUSD 1D continuation plan with exact math This plan assumes a breakout continuation and uses your live ATR 14. All digits are based on ATR 2,882.52 and a price above SMA 50 and EMA 200. Setup in 1 sentence . Trend continuation long on a daily close above the recent swing with SMA 50 rising and 20 bar context bullish. Entry trigger . Close above 124,200 confirms continuation. Initial risk . 2 x ATR equals 5,765.04. Stop equals entry minus 5,765.04. For 124,200 the stop is 118,434.96. Targets . 1R target equals entry plus 5,765.04 which is 129,965.04. 2R target equals entry plus 11,530.08 which is 135,730.08. Sizing example . Equity 20,000. Risk per trade 1% equals 200. Position size equals risk divided by stop distance which is 200 ÷ 5,765.04 equals 0.0347 BTC. Notional at 124,200 is about 4,308. Management . Trail by 1 x ATR which is 2,882.52. Move the stop only with the trail. Ignore the first single red candle to reduce recency effects. Exit logic . Exit on a daily close below the 1 x ATR trail or use a time stop after 12 bars if 2R is not reached. Journal cue . Before entry write 1 disconfirming fact. After exit save 2 screenshots and grade by rule adherence. Why each step neutralizes bias in real time Loss aversion is capped because the stop distance is fixed by ATR and never widened. The trail is mechanical. Confirmation is checked by the written disconfirming fact and the higher timeframe review that can force a skip or a 50% position cut. Anchoring is reduced because exits reference ATR and structure instead of entry or round numbers. Recency is filtered by the 20 bar rule and by a weekly system review that ignores single outcomes. Overconfidence is constrained by a 2 minute cool down and 50% next size after a large winner. Mean reversion companion inside an uptrend Use this only while SMA 50 and EMA 200 slope up and price trades above both averages. Context . Pullback forms inside the 20 bar range toward short term support while SMA 50 rises above EMA 200. Entry . Bullish rejection from a prior swing zone or a daily close back above the intraday pivot after a 2 to 3 day pause. Risk . Initial stop equals 1.5 x ATR which is 4,323.78. Sizing . Risk per trade 1%. Position size equals risk divided by 4,323.78. With equity 20,000 and risk 200 the size equals 0.0463 BTC. Exit . First scale at 1.5 R. Stop to break even only after a daily close above SMA 50. Final exit at 2 R or on a daily close back into the pullback range. Bias note . Write 1 anchor you feel and 1 disconfirming fact that would cancel the setup. Decision checklist to paste into chart notes Setup in 1 sentence written before entry Entry level, initial stop, trail method defined 1 disconfirming fact written and verified Higher timeframe checked and size adjusted if needed Projected reward to risk is at least 2 to 1 Screenshots saved at entry and exit Decision grade recorded by rule adherence Position size rule you can audit weekly Account equity E. Risk per trade equals 1% of E by default. Stop distance equals the ATR multiple from the plan. Position size equals risk divided by stop distance. If required size is not tradable, skip the trade. Bias symptoms you will see on the BTCUSD chart and the fix Loss aversion . Stops drift lower while price falls. Winners are cut early. Fix . 2 x ATR hard stop and 1 x ATR trail. Confirmation . Indicators are added until they agree with your view. Fix . 1 written disconfirming note and a higher timeframe check. Anchoring . Waiting to exit when price returns to entry or to a round level. Fix . Structure based exits and naming the anchor in notes. Recency . Judgment based on the last 2 candles. Fix . 20 bar context rule and a weekly system review. Overconfidence . Trade count jumps after a win. Fix . 2 minute cool down and 50% next size after a large winner. Herd and gambler’s fallacy . Late entries on wide candles and streak thinking. Fix . 2 to 1 minimum reward to risk and a news ban during known high impact windows. Hindsight and outcome bias . Rewriting rules after 1 result. Fix . Grade by rule adherence and keep entry plus exit screenshots. Status quo and endowment . Sitting in flat positions you already own. Fix . Monthly retest of every holding against current rules. Worked example with our numbers Assuming a daily close above 124,200 triggers the continuation. Initial stop equals 2 x ATR which is 5,765.04. Stop equals 118,434.96. 1R target equals 129,965.04. 2R target equals 135,730.08. Equity equals 20,000. Risk equals 200. Position size equals 0.0347 BTC. As price advances you trail by 1 x ATR which is 2,882.52 and you move the stop only when the trail shifts. If the trail is hit you exit. If 12 bars pass without the 2R target you exit on time and log the decision. You do not widen the stop. You do not add size after a win. You grade the decision by rule adherence. If momentum stalls If a daily close rotates down toward 121,000 to 121,500 and momentum weakens, shift to neutral. Wait for a fresh setup that passes the 2 to 1 test at the planned stop. Do not react to a single candle. The plan lives on the daily chart. Comparator and scorecard Use simple Buy and Hold on BTCUSD as the baseline. Score the plan by Return divided by Drawdown, Max Drawdown, and percent of trades executed exactly as written. A smaller drawdown with steady execution beats a higher raw return with poor adherence. Your best forward indicator is the discipline metric you log each week. Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. Test any rule with historical data before risking capital.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by exlux