XRP back to flying?XRP giving big confirmations for a reversal. Let's see if it can breaks the RESISTANCE before new years and achieve new highs for new years.
Cryptocurrency
BTCUSD Liquidity Sweep Setup Before Bearish ContinuationBTCUSD Liquidity Sweep Setup Before Bearish Continuation
Overview
BTCUSD continues to display persistent downside pressure across the mid-term structure. Price action on the 3H timeframe shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting sustained bearish control. Despite short periods of stabilization, the overall market environment remains distribution-driven.
Market Structure
Recent price behavior confirms multiple break-of-structure (BOS) events, each reinforcing the broader downward momentum. Every attempt at upward expansion has been met with supply absorption, indicating that buyers are failing to regain initiative. The consolidation developing in the current region suggests an accumulation of short-term liquidity, but without structural evidence of reversal.
Supply & Liquidity Context
Price is positioned directly beneath a key supply zone highlighted on the chart. This zone remains unmitigated and acts as the primary area where counter-trend reactions are likely to be absorbed. The tightening range beneath this level indicates liquidity buildup, commonly preceding engineered sweeps by institutional players.
The current model suggests that the market may execute a short-term liquidity run above local highs before resuming its downward trajectory. Such a move would align with previous behavior in this trend cycle, where short-term rallies were primarily used to deliver liquidity into higher-timeframe supply.
Downside Expansion Risk
Should the market complete a liquidity sweep into the supply zone, the next phase of downside continuation becomes probable. The structural projection on the chart anticipates a revisiting of the lower demand region around 74,300 – 75,000, an area aligning with previous inefficiencies and untested demand.
This target supports the continuation of the broader bearish structure unless a significant shift in order flow emerges.
Summary
BTCUSD remains positioned within a well-defined bearish cycle, characterized by repeated structure breaks and unmitigated supply zones controlling price. Current compression suggests the market is preparing for another liquidity-driven move. Unless buyers regain structure above the key supply region, the market retains a high probability of extending toward lower demand zones.
BTCUSDT Market Analysis UpdateHi everyone, I hope you are doing well and I have put my opinion in Bitcoin price on the chart for you. and hope this helps you! Simple, concise, useful
BTC is still trading within a clear bullish market structure, supported by strong HL formations and trendline confluence. At the moment, my main focus is on the Fair Value Gap (FVG) below current price. I expect BTC to revisit this imbalance before continuing the move upward.
The liquidity pool around 82,490 is also important. Personally, I don’t expect price to sweep that level immediately. However, if it does get taken, in my view it would likely serve as the final liquidity grab before resuming the broader uptrend. This makes 82,490 a key level to watch — either it remains untouched while we push higher, or if price sweeps it, the move could act as fuel for the next bullish leg.
From a higher timeframe perspective, the market remains bullish. The structure is intact, RSI is holding mid-range without major bearish divergence, and trendline support has not been broken. Volume also supports this idea — it’s decreasing and showing divergence, but this doesn’t signal a reversal, only a healthy consolidation while holding the bullish trend.
In summary:
Main target: fill the nearby FVG before continuation.
Key liquidity zone: 82,490 (less likely to be taken now, but if it happens, I consider it the last liquidity grab).
Bias: still bullish, expecting higher levels once short-term imbalances are resolved.
Weekly:
As long as BTC holds its HLs and respect the FVG zone, I continue to look for upside continuation — potentially well beyond current levels.
That’s my current view on BTC. Let me know your opinion below 👇
Best regards
BTC.D 4H – Market Structure OutlookHi fellow traders,
On the 4H BTC Dominance chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a directional scenario for the broader crypto market. After completing the recent downward leg, I expect dominance to move higher in three waves, forming a corrective structure before the larger continuation to the downside can resume.
This is not a trade setup, but a structural roadmap to understand how capital may rotate across the crypto market. As long as BTC.D remains below the invalidation level at 61.32%, my expectation is that dominance will eventually turn lower with TP1, TP2, and TP3 as the downside objectives - signalling increasing strength for ALTcoins.
If dominance breaks above the invalidation level, this scenario is no longer valid.
Good luck and trade safe!
BTCUSD another -$10k sell offBTCUSD with an over extended bullish trend bulls were in control with series of higher high and higher lows.
3 false attempt on daily
$122k
$124k
and $126k
buyers has given up price started to drop with a change is market sentiment.
daily 10ema and 20ema crossover confirms change of market sentiment and market turns to bear market.
With positive NFP data that boost DXY is also now putting pressure on BTC to go lower.
Daily price trending now below 10ema, a breakout of previous daily high at $87k or above, and rejection back can be ideal sell opportunity
possible 1st tp @74k and it even can go lower!
Llik and follow for futher update on this instrument.
ETH Is Testing the 0.786 Level With DeM at ExhaustionETH is pressing into a major support cluster built from the July 2025 swing low and the readings on the RB DeM indicator are finally reaching exhaustion territory.
The DeM value sitting near 0.18 lines up with the 0.786 retracement of the entire July push which creates a high probability reaction zone.
✓ RB DeM showing deep exhaustion
✓ Price tapping the 0.786 fib from the July 2025 cycle
✓ Structure approaching a level where bigger players usually reload
If buyers defend this zone the next rotation upward could build quickly. I am watching for my RB Swing Setups algo to trigger once momentum shifts.
Full multi timeframe analysis and weekly setups are inside my newsletter.
Link in profile.
XRP all time highXRP is starting to reverse. Next week could be the week when it starts climbing to reach and break all time highs before or beginning of NEW YEARS.
BTCUSDT – Blue Box Reversal IncomingHi fellow traders,
On the 1D BTCUSDT chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a potential long setup. Price has tapped into the blue box after completing a ZIGZAG correction, and this region may provide the foundation for the next impulsive leg within the higher-degree structure.
I am entering at the current price, with a Stop Loss at 73,900.00. My Take Profit is set at 132,366.25, based on the projected continuation of the larger impulsive count.
If price breaks below the structural low around the stop level, this trade is no longer valid.
Good luck and trade safe!
The 74,420.69 Decision Zone: Bitcoin’s Next Regime Depends on ItBitcoin is approaching 74,420.69, a long-term structural decision level where macro conditions, liquidity behavior, and monthly market structure converge.
Macro conditions are tightening: the Dollar is firm, yields are stable, and liquidity across major crypto venues is thinner into month-end. This is the first time BTC has tested a structural ceiling under genuine macro pressure.
Key upcoming catalysts influencing liquidity and Dollar direction include U.S. CPI, Core CPI, PPI, FOMC Minutes, weekly labor data, consumer confidence, month-end rebalancing flows, and Q4 options positioning. BTC is meeting structural resistance at the exact moment these events cluster.
From a Market Structure Mapping perspective, the monthly bullish regime remains intact only if November closes above the prior range low. A close beneath that threshold would trigger a rare long-horizon regime inversion, shifting models from accumulation toward distribution. Monthly structural breaks are uncommon and typically define multi-year liquidity cycles.
Participation metrics confirm the tension. Volume Flow Analytics shows significant absorption at the high, with buy-side flows consistently consumed across major venues. Order Flow Dynamics aligns, indicating buyers being absorbed rather than defended — a common pattern at structural ceilings.
74,420.69 is not a target. It is the structural axis around which Bitcoin’s next multi-year regime will form. Confirmation requires the monthly close.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
GOLD consolidation. GOLD has been moving sideways. Could have a BreakOut by next week and continue to rise.
BTCUSD ShortAs you see in the chart, I see many reasons that we can see BTC to the level of 85,000$ by end of the year. So the reasons are:
Head&Shoulder pattern
Started the downtrend channel
The bold blue trendline is what the price is expected to touch.
BITCOIN Is the first Bear Cycle RALLY approaching?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a brutal (but technically anticipated) correction ever since its October 06 All Time High (ATH), registering 6 red candles out of last 7. We have shown in previous analyses why the Bear Cycle has technically started, how the market lost the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is now about to touch the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the time where we may see a counter-trend rally, the first within this Bear Cycle. First of all, BTC has just completed a total decline of -32.30%, exactly like the January - April 2025 correction and identical to the -33.55% March - August 2024 correction. This is why we project the 86600 - 83600 range as the first technical Support Zone of this Bear Cycle and potential rebound candidate. In the meantime, the 1W RSI is approaching the 30.00 oversold barrier, which further enhances the probabilities for a relief rally.
If materialized, it can technically rise even as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, where it may make contact with the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), even above the 1W MA50. The 1D MA200 has been the counter-trend rally rejection trendline and Resistance of the previous two Bear Cycles. Coupled with the 0.618 Fib, it forms a formidable market Resistance Zone.
This rally may coincide with a final stock market rally, what is traditionally called 'the Santa Rally', which is the end-of-year rise on the markets. Technically that can be the perfect Bull Trap that rejects the rebound and resumes the bearish trend towards Lower Lows and eventually the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
So do you think we are finally about to see the first rally of this Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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SOLUSD; Heikin Ashi Trade Idea📈 Hey Traders!
Here’s a fresh outlook from my trading desk. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know my approach:
🧩 I trade Supply & Demand zones using Heikin Ashi chart on the 4H timeframe.
🧠 I keep it mechanical and clean — no messy charts, no guessing games.
❌ No trendlines, no fixed sessions, no patterns, no indicator overload.
❌ No overanalyzing market structure or imbalances.
❌ No scalping, and no need to be glued to the screen.
✅ I trade exclusively with limit orders, so it’s more of a set-and-forget style.
✅ This means more freedom, less screen time, and a focus on quality setups.
✅ Just a simplified, structured plan and a calm mindset.
💬 Let’s Talk:
💡Do you trade supply & demand too ?
💡What’s your go-to timeframe ?
💡Ever tried Heikin Ashi ?
📩 Got questions about my strategy or setup? Drop them below — ask me anything, I’m here to share.
Let’s grow together and keep it simple. 👊
DOGEUSD; Heikin Ashi Trade Idea📈 Hey Traders!
Here’s a fresh outlook from my trading desk. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know my approach:
🧩 I trade Supply & Demand zones using Heikin Ashi chart on the 4H timeframe.
🧠 I keep it mechanical and clean — no messy charts, no guessing games.
❌ No trendlines, no fixed sessions, no patterns, no indicator overload.
❌ No overanalyzing market structure or imbalances.
❌ No scalping, and no need to be glued to the screen.
✅ I trade exclusively with limit orders, so it’s more of a set-and-forget style.
✅ This means more freedom, less screen time, and a focus on quality setups.
✅ Just a simplified, structured plan and a calm mindset.
💬 Let’s Talk:
💡Do you trade supply & demand too ?
💡What’s your go-to timeframe ?
💡Ever tried Heikin Ashi ?
📩 Got questions about my strategy or setup? Drop them below — ask me anything, I’m here to share.
Let’s grow together and keep it simple. 👊
SUIUSD; Heikin Ashi Trade Idea📈 Hey Traders!
Here’s a fresh outlook from my trading desk. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know my approach:
🧩 I trade Supply & Demand zones using Heikin Ashi chart on the 4H timeframe.
🧠 I keep it mechanical and clean — no messy charts, no guessing games.
❌ No trendlines, no fixed sessions, no patterns, no indicator overload.
❌ No overanalyzing market structure or imbalances.
❌ No scalping, and no need to be glued to the screen.
✅ I trade exclusively with limit orders, so it’s more of a set-and-forget style.
✅ This means more freedom, less screen time, and a focus on quality setups.
✅ Just a simplified, structured plan and a calm mindset.
💬 Let’s Talk:
💡Do you trade supply & demand too ?
💡What’s your go-to timeframe ?
💡Ever tried Heikin Ashi ?
📩 Got questions about my strategy or setup? Drop them below — ask me anything, I’m here to share.
Let’s grow together and keep it simple. 👊
ETHEREUM | THE MATH IS COMPLETE | SHORT SQUEEZE LOADING?Traders,
ETH is setting up for a potential big short squeeze that can rip price up hard. Let me walk you through the math, the order flow and the volume profile that are all pointing in the same direction.
1. The Fib math: 0.5 retrace into 2.0 extension
At point A ETH printed the last impulsive wave up before the dump. After point B the market sold off and then retraced exactly to the 0.5 retracement at point C.
Why 0.5 rotates into 2.0 from a math perspective :
A 0.5 retracement means price has pulled back 50 percent of the prior leg.
-> If AB is 1000 points, a 0.5 retrace gives a 500 point pullback.
In my Fibonacci Rotation table, 0.5 is paired with 2.0 because they are exact reciprocals.
-> 1 divided by 0.5 equals 2.
So when the market respects the 0.5 retrace, the natural projection is the 2.0 extension in the opposite direction.
-> You are effectively rotating the same structure: halve in the pullback, double in the extension.
On this chart that 2.0 extension lands right into the $2880 to $2890 area. From C that 0.5 retrace is not random. It is the anchor that mathematically rotates into the 2.0 target and defines the first major squeeze zone above.
2. HTF Fibonacci extension confluence
From there we step out to the higher timeframe structure.
We take a Fibonacci Extension and draw it:
From the highest point on the chart (X)
Down to the first big swing low (Y)
Then up to the next swing high (Z)
This measures the high to low structure and then projects extensions of that full swing.
On that HTF extension, the 1.618 level sits right in the same area as the 2.0 from the 0.5 rotation.
Why the 1.618 and 2.0 together are strong confluence :
1.618 is the classic golden ratio extension.
-> A lot of systems, harmonics and algos respond around 1.272 and 1.618.
2.0 is the clean reciprocal extension of the 0.5 retrace from the internal leg.
-> These two levels are calculated from two different swings.
One comes from the internal retracement structure.
-> The other comes from the higher timeframe swing.
When independent measurements give almost the same price area, that zone is not made up. It is where different groups of traders and different models will naturally cluster orders, targets and stops.
So $2880 to $2890 is a real Fib confluence, not a guess. It is a logical first destination for a short squeeze and it sits exactly inside the current FVG.
3. Fixed Range Volume Profile and the LVN at $2880
Now we bring in volume.
When we draw a Fixed Range Volume Profile from the swing low of 9 April to the swing high of 24 August, we see a very clean Low Volume Node (LVN) at roughly $2880. That LVN sits inside the same Fair Value Gap that price is currently exactly trading in.
What this actually means :
A Low Volume Node is an area where historically the market did not trade much.
-> Very few contracts changed hands there.
-> The auction basically skipped through that price zone.
In an auction model, high volume areas are where the market is comfortable.
-> Price spends time there, value is accepted, big rotations happen.
Low volume areas are the opposite.
The market rejected that area before.
-> Price moved through it quickly because either buyers or sellers completely dominated and there was no real back and forth.
So when price comes back down into an LVN inside an FVG like this, it tells me:
Price has moved back into an old inefficiency where previously there was no interest in building value.
If buyers are absorbing there (which we see from spot metrics), then the LVN can act as a springboard.
Either price slices straight through the LVN to the next high volume area.
Or price tags it, rejects sharply and uses it as the launch zone for the next leg.
In this case the LVN at $2880 is aligned with:
The 2.0 extension from the 0.5 rotation
The HTF 1.618 extension zone
The current FVG
That is a triple confluence of math, volume and inefficiency. Price did not randomly land here.
4. Spot A/D: hidden bullish accumulation
Now we go under the candles and look at order flow.
First is the A/D (Accumulation / Distribution) indicator, applied on spot and mainly on the 4H and higher.
Why A/D on spot and why on 4H plus :
Spot represents real ETH being bought and sold.
-> No funding games, less synthetic noise.
-> It shows where true demand is stepping in.
Futures can be distorted by hedging, arbing and leverage rotation.
On low timeframes there is a lot of noise from scalpers and short term spoofing.
-> 4H and higher smooth out that noise and reveal the bigger players.
What we see now:
On the spot A/D line both highs and lows have been trending higher.
Price, in the same window, is trending lower.
So price is making lower lows, A/D is making higher lows and higher highs.
This means:
On down moves, there is more volume being absorbed by buyers than being pushed by sellers.
Sellers are getting absorbed.
Smart money is accumulating spot while the chart still looks bearish to the average viewer.
That is textbook hidden bullish accumulation.
5. CVD and OI: shorts are loading into that accumulation
Now it gets even more interesting when we bring in CVD and OI.
5.1 Aggregated Spot CVD vs price
On 13 November:
Aggregated Spot CVD sat around -31.61k.
From that point it started trending up, forming higher highs and higher lows.
Today it is around 100.91k.
Change in Spot CVD:
100.91k minus -31.61k = +132.52k
So net buying on spot increased by about 132.5k units while:
Price moved from roughly $3150 down to about $2988
That is a drop of 162 dollars
162 divided by 3150 is about 5.1 percent
So we have:
A big positive flip in net spot demand
Only a small net drop in price
If bears were truly in control, that amount of spot absorption would not allow price to stay this close. You would see a much heavier breakdown earlier in the move. Instead buyers have quietly soaked up the selling and then pushed net CVD positive while price is only down around 5 percent.
This fits perfectly with the bullish accumulation narrative.
5.2 Futures CVD and OI
On the futures side:
Aggregated Stablecoin Margined Futures CVD dropped from about -408k to about -1.34M.
-> Roughly -932k more net selling.
Aggregated Coin Margined Contracts CVD dropped from about -88M to about -807M.
-> Roughly -719M more net selling.
At the same time:
Stablecoin Margined OI increased from 4.39M to 4.88M.
-> Increase of about 0.49M which is around 11 percent.
Coin Margined OI increased from 1.81B to 1.91B.
-> Increase of about 0.10B which is around 5.5 percent.
So futures traders are:
Aggressively hitting into the bid
Increasing net short pressure (CVD more negative)
Keeping positions open and even adding more (OI going up)
All of this while:
Spot is quietly buying
Spot CVD is strongly positive
Price is sitting in a triple confluence zone around $2880 inside an LVN and FVG
A simple way to think about it:
Spot is the strong hand slowly loading.
Futures is the weak hand aggressively shorting into that demand.
Price is held in a relatively tight range compared to the amount of futures selling.
Once that selling slows or some catalyst hits, all of those shorts are fuel. They will have to cover into a thin LVN zone, through a Fib confluence and into areas where there was previously low participation. That is exactly how you get fast vertical moves.
6. USDT.D confluence
Now, when looking at the USDT.D chart on the HTF, we can see that it has rejected from the 0.886 retracement, broke structure and is now respecting a descending trendline, while RSI is showing heavy bearish divergence. This means that even though USDT.D tried to push higher, each push had less and less momentum behind it, and buyers of dominance are getting weaker. For crypto, that is important, because a topping and rolling over USDT.D often signals capital rotating out of stablecoins back into risk assets. In confluence with everything discussed before, this adds another layer to the thesis. Spot is accumulating, futures are overcrowded on the short side, ETH is sitting in a strong Fib and volume confluence zone, and at the same time USDT.D is showing signs of distribution and potential downside. If USDT.D continues to bleed down from this 0.886 rejection, it structurally supports a scenario where ETH squeezes higher into the targets discussed.
7. Targets and the bigger picture
Based on this structure and the order flow, the upside targets I am watching are:
$3800
$4400
And if crypto gets proper momentum, a final Swing Fail Pattern around $5100
The logic behind these levels:
$3800 and $4400 are not random numbers. They line up with higher timeframe Fib extensions and prior structural pivots and volume distribution levels. Think of them as natural waypoints where bigger players will take profit, hedge or reposition.
$5100 is where I can see a classic SFP scenario:
We push into a new high.
Late buyers chase the breakout.
Existing shorts get squeezed.
Then once liquidity above the prior highs is taken, a sharp reversal becomes very likely.
So my roadmap is:
First we reclaim and rotate out of this $2880 confluence zone. Then $3800 and $4400 become realistic magnets. If the whole crypto complex catches momentum, $5100 as an SFP high is very much on the table.
Invalidation:
Invalidation for this specific bullish accumulation and squeeze thesis comes only if ETH starts trading below $2470. As long as we hold above that level, every dump is still in quiet bullish accumulation territory for me, unless order flow starts telling another story.
7. Conclusion
Fib structure points to $2880 as a key confluence level.
Fixed Range Volume Profile confirms this with a clean LVN inside an FVG.
Spot A/D and Spot CVD are showing bullish accumulation while price grinds down.
Futures CVD and OI show shorts loading into that spot absorption.
Upside roadmap: 3800, then $4400, with a possible SFP (Swing Fail Pattern) around $5100 if the trend extends.
Invalidation only if ETH starts trading below $2470. Until that happens, every dump for me stays in quiet bullish accumulation territory, unless order flow flips.
USDT.D confluence.
Same as always. This is not financial advice. Trade your own plan, size your own risk. I am just laying out the math, volume and order flow that I see behind this potential short squeeze on ETH.
Markets do not whisper without reason. When math, volume and flow all hum the same melody, I prefer to listen before the crowd hears the drop.
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If this spoke to the part of you that loves clean math and dirty squeezes, drop a like, leave a comment, and bookmark it. When the candles start to sprint, you will want to remember where the story was already written.
- ThetaNomad
USDCAD rise/fall?USDCAD at a key zone and showing signs of weakness. Some major news coming in less than 2 hours, waiting for liquidations and reactions to jump in on sniper entries.
BNBUSD Bear Cycle started and can even crash to $400.Binance Coin (BNBUSD) is currently on its 4th straight red week (and 5 in the last 6), declining aggressively following the October 13 All Time High (ATH). That was also a technical Higher High for the 4-year Channel Up that started following the November 01 2021 Top of the previous Cycle.
As you can see the sequences that led to both Channel Up tops are similar. Technically this implies that the recent 6 week decline is the start of the new Bear Cycle (Bearish Leg for the Channel Up).
The price is now approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the first Support, with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), this time right below it.
Technically, we could see this Bear Cycle decline by as much as the previous one, -71.81%, and hit $400 before it bottoms. A solid indicator for when to buy BNB during this correction, is the 1W RSI hitting 30.00 (oversold), as it did on June 13 2022, which market the Cycle's bottom.
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BOUNCE TO 98-100KMorning folks,
Last time we explained in details the fundamental background, so BTC remains bearish. But now it stands at weekly oversold and around 95K Daily support area. This creates friendly background for tactical bounce.
On 4H chart we have DiNapoli DRPO "Buy" pattern, that suggests upside bounce to 98-100K area at least.
That's being said, don't take any new shorts right now - wait for the pullback. For bullish intraday position, you could try to use this DRPO pattern. Don't place too far stop, just under lows should be enough, but be aware of NFP volatility today...
GBPCHF outcome.GBPCHF making higher highs and higher lows consistently. Now in the consolidation zone. Let's see if it will continue to climb going into London session.
CHAINLINK - LOADING A SUPER SWEEP UP! - Traders,
In my last $CHAINLINK analysis
I wrote out two scenario’s.
Scenario 1 did not play out. Scenario 2 was simple: a dump into the next 1.618 extension, and from there the hunt for a fresh long setup begins. That 1.618 was at 12.90$
And here we are.
Pixel perfect.
So are we wrong? This is why having your levels outlined and being patient matters more than anything. When one path closes, structure reveals another. The chart always speaks.
But only those who wait can hear it.
What we are looking at
$CHAINLINK dumped straight into the 12 to 13 dollar zone.
This zone is not random. It is technically one of the most important pockets on the chart.
Let’s break down why.
Mathematical Levels – The Spot Chart
To avoid distortion caused by the 10 October liquidation wick, we start with clean mathematical levels on the spot chart.
At 12.886 we have the high timeframe 0.886 Fibonacci retracement. This is the deep retrace zone where momentum often shifts. Price tends to exhaust here because 0.886 represents the final Fibonacci rotation before structural invalidation. It is where the last sellers usually throw in everything they have.
At the same time, this level lines up with the 1.618 extension of the first structure after the 10 October crash. The initial high to low is marked with a yellow arrow in your chart.
This means one thing:
The downside auction has mathematically completed.
Both the retracement leg and the extension leg have landed in the same pocket.
This is real confluence.
The HTF AVWAP Confluence
Chart:
On 06 August 2024, LINK printed a new significant low.
This low kicked off a bullish wave with strong volume behind it.
That wave marked the beginning of a long uptrend, which means the AVWAP anchored to this low carries real weight.
Now here is the fascinating part:
The lower band of the anchored AVWAP aligns perfectly with:
The HTF 0.886 retracement
The 1.618 extension
The current price zone
The mathematical exhaustion pocket
This is not normal.
This is precision level confluence.
What this means
When AVWAP, Fibonacci, and wave extensions align, it signals that institutional cost basis, market memory, and auction math are all pointing to the same zone as fair value.
This is where smart money steps in.
Falling Wedge – The Technical Cherry
The final ingredient:
LINK has printed a clean, textbook falling wedge.
A falling wedge is a bullish reversal pattern where momentum compresses and the final sellers run out of strength. It represents exhaustion, not continuation.
Combine that with AVWAP, Fibonacci, and mathematical symmetry, and you have a powerful structural reversal setup.
Order Flow Confirmation
The order flow confirm the technical story:
Spot CVD has been trending down, but price is no longer following with the same intensity.
Stablecoin and coin margined CVDs are still pushing lower, but again, price is resisting the pressure.
Open Interest increased into the lows. New shorts opened into exhaustion.
Funding remains small and neutral.
Price is holding the key zone.
This is absorption. When shorts push and price refuses to break, the market is loading a spring.
Conclusion
The 12 to 13 dollar range is not random noise.
It is a high timeframe confluence zone made of:
The 0.886 Fibonacci retracement
The 1.618 extension completion
The lower AVWAP band from the August trend origin
A falling wedge structure
Order flow absorption
New shorts entering into weakness
LINK is setting up for a powerful sweep if this zone holds.
Targets.
$19.30
$20.50
$38.00 if we move higher.
Breaking out of the wedge pattern invalidates the idea.
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The chart is whispering again. Patience turns whispers into signals.
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If you like this kind of analysis, drop a like and leave a comment. Everything here is shared for free so more people can cut through the noise and finally see what is actually happening under the surface. No hopium. No fear. Just real data, real structure, and real order flow.
The goal is simple. To help traders stop guessing and start understanding what the market is actually saying.
Stay sharp.
Stay objective.
And remember… the chart whispers long before it speaks.
- ThetaNomad
BITCOIN – THE TIDES ARE TURNING Traders,
On November 5 I mapped out a scenario where Bitcoin would push into 107k to 108k and then decline to 98k first and 89k second.
This entire scenario has now played out perfectly to the pixel. We swept 108k, we dumped to 98k, and then we flushed into 89k. Where I expected price to retrace from exactly this level: $88.912
So the real question now is simple. What now? Do we break lower, or do we go up?
Let’s break Bitcoin down cleanly, without bias, and only by reading structure, levels, and order flow.
Levels, Structure and Order Flow
AVWAP at the core of the structure
Bitcoin is currently trading right near the AVWAP from the 06 August 24 anchor. This is the blue line on your chart and the exact level is 90.881. This anchor began with a large volume impulse.
When heavy volume kicks off a leg, the AVWAP from that point becomes a core reference level for the entire future auction. We are now sitting right on top of it, which is exactly where you would expect absorption or a strong reaction.
The market is basically deciding if this AVWAP will hold or break.
AB=CD completion
The full AB=CD measured move has completed exactly into the AVWAP zone. This is a clean harmonic completion and adds confluence to why price reacted here. AB=CD means the downside leg is symmetrical and usually marks exhaustion inside a trend.
Fixed Range Volume Profile
Using a FRVP from the start of the current HTF auction (07 April until now), we see price wicked directly into the LVN that sits inside the weekly FVG. This area had imbalance and low participation. A wick into an LVN inside an FVG often means that the inefficiency is now cleaned and the auction has reached completion for that side of the range.
Wedge breakout
Bitcoin technically broke out of the falling wedge, but the breakout does not look clean.
We are outside the wedge, but momentum on the breakout is weak. True confirmation would come if price re-enters the wedge from the outside and climbs back through the wedge body.
Re-entering the wedge tells you that the breakdown was liquidity and not a structural continuation. If we reclaim it, upside targets become more likely.
Order Flow – What the data shows
Spot and Futures CVD
Across the 15m, 30m and 1h charts, Spot CVD is forming a bullish divergence. Price keeps making lower lows, but Spot CVD is holding higher. This shows that spot buyers are stepping in at the lows and absorbing sell pressure.
Futures CVD on both stablecoin margined and coin margined contracts continues to push lower.
Price is not following these lower lows. This creates hidden bullish divergence and confirms that aggressive sellers are hitting the market while limit buyers are absorbing the pressure.
This is a classic sign of absorption. Selling continues, but the market is refusing to break lower with the same intensity.
Open Interest – A shift
Earlier in the dump, Open Interest was falling. This means positions were being closed.
Most of this was shorts taking profit or exiting the move. When OI drops during a downtrend, continuation becomes harder because the move loses fuel.
Near the end of the screenshots, there is a shift. Both stablecoin margined and coin margined OI start to rise again.
This rise in OI happens while:
CVD continues to make lower lows
Price stops making new lows
Price begins to stabilize
This tells us that new positions are being opened at the lows. Given the CVD behavior, most of these are new shorts entering the market.
When new shorts enter and price does not break, the probability of those shorts becoming trapped increases. If buyers step in, this setup often leads to a short squeeze.
This is how reversals form in a controlled market.
Funding rate – Binance
Funding is positive but very small. This means there is no extreme long pressure. There is no overcrowding on the long side. The market is not stretched. With fresh shorts entering at the lows and funding staying neutral, the market can turn quickly if support holds.
What this means
The combination of:
Spot CVD divergence
Hidden bullish divergence on futures CVD
Rising Open Interest at the lows
Neutral funding
Price refusing to break down - So price needs to hold.
shows that the market is absorbing aggressive selling at a key level. If buyers defend the current level, this can force newly opened shorts to cover, which would fuel the next move up.
Targets
109k
This is the first upside objective.
There is a CME ETH gap resting at this level and gaps of this type tend to get filled.
109k also aligns with the 1.113 Fibonacci extension of the latest wave.
This makes it the first logical level if price continues to hold the AVWAP and absorb selling pressure.
112k
The next major level is 112k.
This area contains single prints on CME and matches an AVWAP level on the BTC CME chart.
112k also lines up with the 1.272 extension of the wave.
From a Fibonacci rotation perspective, 1.272 is the next stop after 1.113 and often acts as a mid-cycle continuation target.
118.800
The final target sits at 118.800.
This is the full 1.618 extension of the wave and mathematically completes the auction.
If the market rotates from AVWAP support, this level becomes the natural endpoint of the move.
As long as price continues to hold the AVWAP at 90.881 and the market keeps absorbing futures selling, all three upside targets remain in play.
Invalidation
The structure changes only if price breaks below 88k. A clean drop under 88k opens the door for the next major high timeframe support at 85k.
85k carries strong confluence. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement on the HTF move and sits directly on a Point of Control zone within the Fixed Range Volume Profile.
Below that level, the auction shifts into a lower structure entirely.
TLDR
Bitcoin completed the downside scenario perfectly.
Price is now sitting directly on the AVWAP at 90.881.
AB=CD is complete.
LVN inside weekly FVG has been cleaned.
Futures CVD is still pressing lower but price is not. That is absorption.
But the key update is OI. OI was dropping earlier on the LTF, but now OI is rising again, and this is happening while CVD continues down and price holds steady.
That means new shorts are entering the market and getting absorbed.
If AVWAP holds, expect a bounce.
Targets:
109k
112k
118.8k
If 88k breaks, 85k is next.
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Abbreviation List
AVWAP
Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price. A dynamic support or resistance level based on volume since a chosen anchor.
AB=CD
A harmonic measured move where AB equals CD.
FRVP
Fixed Range Volume Profile. Shows where volume was traded inside a chosen range.
LVN
Low Volume Node. A low interest level where price often rejects strongly.
FVG
Fair Value Gap. An imbalance left by aggressive price moves.
CVD
Cumulative Volume Delta. Tracks buying vs selling pressure.
OI
Open Interest. The amount of open futures positions.
POC
Point of Control. Level with the highest traded volume.
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