BITCOIN 's Bear Cycle has started according to the Dollar.It is one of the oldest charts around. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) vs U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). And perhaps one of the most accurate or to phrase it better, one of the most informative.
As you can see, every time the DXY (black trend-line) bottoms and rebounds (green Arcs), BTC tops and corrects (red Arcs), initiating its Bear Cycle.
Right now the news are far from favorable for Bitcoin's Bull Cycle case as the Dollar has broken above the previous Lower High and continues to rebound. That's a potential bottom, hence high probabilities for BTC to start a new Bear Cycle.
Would you trust this chart? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencysignals
ETHEREUM hit its 1W MA50. Can this save the Bull market?Ethereum (ETHUSD) just hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 months since it broke above it on the week of July 07 2025. This pattern looks very similar to the 1W tests after the March 11 2025 and November 08 2021 Highs (latter as also a Cycle Top).
In both cases the 1W MA50 failed to hold as a Support (did also the same on the Jan 13 2025 test) and the price declined further completing -48% and -52% total drops respectively.
As a result, there are high probabilities currently for ETH to extend its decline by at least -48%, in which case it may reach $2600.
Based on the 1W RSI, the most probably level for a bounce is the 38.50 (RSI) level, which is the Symmetrical Support that initiated the rebounds of September 02 2024 and January 24 2022. The September 18 2023 and November 07 2022 Lows also came very close to it and rebounded.
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BTCUSD H1 | Bearish Drop OffBitcoin (BTC/USD) has rejected the sell entry at 104,504.68, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 59% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 105,308.55, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracemnt.
Take profit is at 98,945.84, which is a pullback support.
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SUIUSD Channel Down to accelerate more selling towards 1.4320.Sui (SUIUSD) has established a Channel Down on the 1W time-frame, trading under Lower Highs since the December 30 2024 High. The Bull Cycle got invalidated on September 22 2025 when the price broke below the inner Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) and this week may confirm the new Bear Cycle as it will most likely close a 1W candle below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
We expect the current decline to repeat at least the -68.06% drop of the first Bearish Leg of the pattern and targe 1.4320.
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AFTER THE BREAKDOWN 105K IS THE KEY LEVEL FOR RECOVERYWe have seen an unexpected breakdown in BTC, even despite the positive news about the China deal. BTC continued to decline further, although the data has generally been pointing in the right direction.
At the moment of writing, BTC is still in a downtrend. However, the $105K level could be a key point that triggers a potential recovery, depending on how the upcoming data unfolds.
We will continue to monitor whether BTC can enter the $105K zone in the coming time frames.
BITCOIN and stocks, 2021 vs 2025...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) could be entering a new Bear Cycle and as we've mentioned a few times recently, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) will play a big part at deciding that. This is basically the level that BTC is testing right now.
What may seem surprising to some, is that while Bitcoin has been correcting, the stock market (S&P500 illustrated by the black trend-line) has been rising making All Time High (ATH) after All Time High. This is not uncommon towards the end of Bull Cycles and has been particularly relevant during the Top of the previous (2021) Cycle.
As you can see, Bitcoin topped 7 weeks before stocks did, as we witnessed heavy profit taking and rotation of those (extraordinary) crypto gains towards stocks. Even the 1W RSI Lower Highs structure is similar between 2021 and 2025. The 4-year Cycle Theory in full confirmation (so far).
If the pattern plays out the exact same way time-wise as in 2021 (often it doesn't), we should be expecting stocks to top around the week of November 24. As for Bitcoin's trend after, following the 2022 blueprint wouldn't be unreasonable at all, as a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50 would open the way to a 1W MA100 (green trend-line) test, multiple months of ranged price action between the two and then violent crash towards the 1M MA100 (red trend-line).
So do you think Bitcoin has topped and if yes, are stocks about to follow soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 's worst Uptober in 11 years. Will selling continue?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed October on a -3.89% loss, marking only the second red October since 2018 (-3.83%) and the worst since 2014 (-12.95%). This comes against the popularized 'Uptober' moniker, which relates to BTC's historically strong gains for this month.
So what's next? Things may get even worse if BTC repeats the Jan - Feb 2025 fractal and breaks below its current Higher Lows trend-line. As you can see, since the August 14 2025 High, the market has been on a similar pattern as December 2024 - February 2025.
Right now we are on the rejection made on the Lower Highs 2 trend-line (blue circle) on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. With the first Lower Highs 2 rejection being similar among the two fractals (around -17%), we can expect an equally symmetrical sell-off if the Higher Lows break.
On February 24 2025, that break-out completed a -32% fall from its All Time High (ATH) just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. If the Higher Lows break-out does happen on the current sequence as well, we may see another -32% decline, which this time is exactly on the 2.0 Fib ext. This time we have the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) to be mindful of, where we can expect contact to be made around $87000.
Do you think BTC can dip this low? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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EtHUSD M30 | Bullish Bounce Off Key SupportETH/USD has bounced off the buy entry, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 787.96, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss is at 3,679.04, which is a swing low support.
Take profit is at 3,4.94, which his an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 40% Fibonacci retracement.
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BTCUSD H1 | Bearish Reversal at Pullback ResistanceBTC/USD is rising towards the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 111,22.96, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss is at 113,549.46, whic is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 106,29.13, which is a multi swing low support.
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BNBUSD H4 | Price Drop-Off Signals Bearish ContinuationBNB?USD is rising towards the sell entry, which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 1,089.90, whic is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1,136.97, whic is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1,021.35, whic is an overlap support.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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BCHUSD H | Bearish Reversal DevelopingBCH/USD has rejected off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 566.81, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 611.6, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 507.42, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Bullish bounce off?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which is a multi-swing low support, and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 197,582.22
1st Support: 191,969.5
1st Resistance: 17,384.29
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
$btc idea for weekend big range to play ! BTC has big range bounce off at 0.78 fib level
1- bullish : if we can take one level of higher low around 111.7K and change this structure there is change we move higher from here likely sunday pump
2-bearish: if we have slow price action over weekend with slow bleed get below 108.4K we might sweep low of range or touch 0.786 level once again
what you think happen first ?
Bitcoin - The manipulation!On the weekly Bitcoin chart, there’s a clear bearish rising wedge pattern, and right now it’s trading near the lower side of that wedge — getting ready for a downward weekly breakout.
But let me remind you of something important — this will likely be part of a psychological game played by market makers, so remember my words carefully:
- Bitcoin will break down from the wedge, giving a bearish signal, and many traders will enter short positions.
- It’ll even dip slightly below the 50 EMA, making everyone more confident in the bearish move.
- Then, it’ll reverse sharply upward, liquidating all the short positions.
Market makers always make you believe your plan is playing out perfectly — right before they turn against you and take your money.
So stay alert, place your buy orders slightly below the 50 EMA, and avoid using high leverage.
Best Regards:
Ceciliones🎯
Bullish reversal off major support?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,710/52
1st Support: 3,395.28
1st Resistance: 4,063.46
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could revert to the first support, which is a swing low support.
Pivot: 111,191.38
1st Support: 104,980.51
1st Resistance: 115,531.59
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN Has this huge Bearish Divergence started the Bear Cycle?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure in the past 4 weeks since the October 06 All Time High (ATH) and finds itself battling to hold the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. That trend-line has been basically the Support of this Bull Cycle since March 2023, and acted as the most optimal long-term buy level.
** Has the Bull Cycle ended? **
However this Bull Cycle may have very well come to an end already as the 1W RSI has been long exhibiting the same kind of bearish pattern (Lower Highs trend-line), while also having completed the 4-year Cycle, that all previous Bull Cycles formed on their respective tops. This is a huge Bearish Divergence formation as it goes against the price's Higher Highs, indicating trend exhaustion.
As you can see that 1 RSI Lower Highs trend-line formed the November 2021, December 2017 and December 2013 Cycle Tops. Even worse, the current Lower Highs trend-line has been going on since the March 11 2024 High. If BTC closes a 1W candle below its 1W MA50, it has greater probabilities to confirm the start of the new Bear Cycle as all previous ones did on such break-out.
** If yes, how much can it drop? **
Now, it might not be too relevant at this time yet, but as far as how low the Bear Cycle can go to before it bottoms, there are three potential levels of interest where long-term investors can Dollar Cost Average (DCA).
The January 2015 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous bottom. The last Bear Cycle has its bottom below the 1W MA200 and on the next Fib in line, the 0.5 level. The decline on each Bear Cycle that followed decelerated and was less than the previous (-86.70% to -84.19% to -77.22%).
If the new Bear Cycle has already started then the first level for a potential bottom is again the 0.382 Fib around $58000 where contact may potentially be made with the 1W MA200 as well. If it follows the previous Bear Cycle and bottoms on the 0.5 Fib, it will also be below the 1W MA200 around $45000. If on the other hand it goes a Fib level further, as the last two Cycles did, we are looking at the 0.618 Fib as a potential strong bottom candidate around $35000. That will also be a -70.76% decline from the Top, which will be -7% less than the previous Bear Cycle, which is also the difference that the 2022 Bear Cycle had from the 2018 one.
So what do you think? Has the Bull Cycle ended already and if yes, how low can the new Bear Cycle go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHUSD H1 | Bearish Momentum Building UpBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has rejected off the sell entry at 3,987.68, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this levle to the downside.
Stop loss is at 4,144.26, whichis a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 3,744.29, whichis a swing low support.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
LTCUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Pullback SupportLTC/USD has bounced off the buy entry which is a pullback support that aligns with he 50% Fibonacci retracemnt and could rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 96.09, which is a pullback support that aligns with he 50% Fibonacci retracemnt.
Stop loss is at 84.76, which is a swing low support.
Take profit is at 115.31, whichis a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracemnt.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SOLUSD H4 | Bearish Drop-Off in MomentumSOL/USD has rejected off the sell entry which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracemnt and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 204.97, whichis an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracemnt.
Stop loss is at 221.25, whichis a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 174.91, whichis a swing low support.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
BNBUSD H4 | ullish Momentum BuildingBNB/USD is reacting off the buy entry, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 1,115.60, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1,027.90, which is an overlap support.
Take profit is at 1,224.16, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CARDANO Last chance to keep the Bull Cycle running.Cardano (ADAUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up every since its December 26 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. That was also the time the 1W RSI has been at its lowest (hitting 30.00). The most recent bullish signal has been the 1W Golden Cross, its first ever.
Following this however, the price failed to break above the Lower Highs trend-line of the pattern's previous Higher High and got rejected back to its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), which momentarily got broken on the October 10 flash crash. Still, the market instantly recovered and more importantly the 1W RSI found Support on its own 3-year Higher Lows Zone, which has been the most effective buy entry of the Bull Cycle.
As long as the price stays inside the Channel Up, the Bull Cycle remains alive. The confirmation of further upside, thus a new Bullish Leg, only comes technically if the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line again. If it does, we expect a Higher High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (every Higher High seems to decline, 1.786 to 1.5 Fib) at $1.900. A 1W candle closing below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), most likely confirms the new Bear Cycle.
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Bearish drop off?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) has rejected off the pivot whic has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 4,262.14
1st support: 3,693.05
1st Resistance: 4,440.49
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.






















