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EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on. The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16 Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene. For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value. The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness. So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time. Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy. Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news . Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar. The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party. On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America. US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut? US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve. So what does the market do? It prices in a cut. Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny. ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises? Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency. Here’s why it’s rising instead: Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon. The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms. Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life. Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out. Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction. From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.” Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
by TradingView
19
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 12, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening for the second day in a row against a weakened US Dollar (USD) and is moving further away from the two-week low reached the day before. The market's initial reaction to news of trade talks between the US and China faded rather quickly after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, curbs investors' appetite for risky assets and maintains the yen's status as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the yen is further supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may tighten monetary conditions amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. On the other hand, the US Dollar looks vulnerable near one-month lows as weaker US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, led the USD/JPY pair to fall below 143.50 in the last hour. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.30, SL 144.30, TP 141.30
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Uncertainty: The Dollar's Unexpected Ally?The recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the Israeli shekel (ILS) serves as a potent illustration of the dollar's enduring role as a safe-haven currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Investors consistently gravitate towards the perceived stability of the dollar during periods of global unrest, leading to its appreciation against more volatile and susceptible currencies, such as the shekel. A significant driver of this dollar demand stems from the precarious security landscape in the Middle East. Reports detailing Israel's potential operation into Iran, coupled with the United States' proactive measures like authorizing voluntary departures of military dependents and preparing for a partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy, signal Washington's anticipation of potential Iranian retaliation. Assertive declarations from Iranian officials, explicitly threatening US military bases and claiming intelligence on Israeli nuclear facilities, further amplify regional risks, compelling investors to seek the dollar's perceived safety. Compounding this geopolitical volatility is the stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy. Hurdles persist not only over core issues, such as uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, but also over the basic scheduling of talks, with both sides expressing diminishing confidence in a resolution. The recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, where the US and European allies introduced a non-compliance resolution against Iran, adds another layer of diplomatic tension, threatening increased sanctions or nuclear expansion and reinforcing the perception of a volatile environment that inherently strengthens the dollar. These escalating tensions have tangible economic repercussions, further fueling investor flight to safety. The immediate aftermath has seen a significant increase in oil prices due to anticipated supply disruptions and a notable depreciation of the Iranian rial against the dollar. Warnings from maritime authorities regarding increased military activity in critical waterways also reflect broad market apprehension. During such periods of instability, capital naturally flows into assets perceived as low-risk, making the US dollar, backed by the world's largest economy and its status as a global reserve currency, the primary beneficiary. This flight-to-safety dynamic during major regional conflicts involving key global players consistently bolsters the dollar's value.
Long
by UDIS_View
DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase. We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction. On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
11
EUR/USD tests three-year ceiling Aside from a brief spike in April, EUR/USD has remained below 1.1500 for over three years. Sellers again have had to defend the zone following the weaker-than-expected US CPI release. The main resistance zone potentially spans all the way up to 1.1573 (the April high). Some indicators suggest potential room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet reached overbought territory, and the Daily Moving Average is positively sloped. A break below the 4-hour Moving Average could trigger more selling pressure and a potential correction.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D11 Y25👀 USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D11 Y25 🔥HOT PICK ALERT 🔥 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅15’ order block ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
xauusd weekly analysis **XAU/USD Weekly Analysis** *(June 2-13, 2025)* --- ### **LAST WEEK'S PERFORMANCE (June 2-6)** **Price Action:** - Weekly decline: **~2%** - Key levels: - Resistance: $3,355–$3,381 (61.8% Fibo) - Support: $3,272–$3,288 (38.2% Fibo) - Range: $3,291.50 (low) to $3,365 (high) - Close: Near $3,310–$3,316 **Key Drivers:** 1. **USD Strength**: Fiscal concerns (Senate tax bill debate adding $3.8T debt) 2. **Reduced Safe-Haven Demand**: Trump delayed EU tariffs to July 9 3. **Central Bank Caution**: Market awaited ECB/BoC decisions and U.S. jobs data --- ### **NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK (June 9-13)** **Critical Technical Levels:** | **Support** | **Resistance** | |-------------------|-------------------| | $3,272–$3,288 | $3,370–$3,375 | | $3,295 (SMA) | $3,381 (Key Breakout) | | $3,210–$3,214 | $3,400–$3,434 | **Fundamental Catalysts:** 1. **Central Banks**: - ECB Decision (June 12) → Dovish stance = USD strength - BoC Decision (June 11) → Rate cuts may boost USD 2. **U.S. Data**: - Non-Farm Payrolls (June 13) → Strong data = fewer Fed rate cuts 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: - Escalations in Ukraine/Middle East → Safe-haven demand 4. **U.S. Fiscal Policy**: Senate vote on $3.8T tax bill **Market Sentiment:** - **Bullish Case**: Break above $3,381 targets $3,500–$3,800 - **Bearish Risks**: Breakdown below $3,272 risks drop to $3,160 --- ### **TRADING STRATEGY** **Key Approaches:** - **🔺 Long Setup**: - Entry: Above $3,381 - Target: $3,500 - Stop-loss: $3,320 - **🔻 Short Setup**: - Entry: Below $3,272 - Target: $3,210 - Stop-loss: $3,310 - **Event Hedging**: Use options around ECB/BoC/NFP events **Risk Management Note:** > "Gold's trajectory hinges on USD dynamics and central bank guidance. A weekly close above $3,381 confirms bull trend resumption." --- ### **KEY EVENTS CALENDAR** | Date | Event | Impact Level | |------------|---------------------------|--------------| | June 11 | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | High | | June 12 | ECB Rate Decision | High | | June 13 | US Non-Farm Payrolls | Very High | | Mid-week | US Senate Tax Bill Vote | Moderate-High| --- **Conclusion:** Next week presents a binary setup for XAU/USD: - Break above **$3,381** opens path to $3,500+ - Failure to hold **$3,272** risks correction to $3,210 Prioritize risk management during high-impact events. The long-term uptrend remains intact but short-term direction depends on USD and central bank policy. for intra day traders and scalpers follow the range zone
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 9, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is rising at the start of the new week, reacting to upward revisions to Japan's first quarter GDP data. This comes amid signs of rising inflation in Japan and confirmation of bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, which in turn provides a slight boost to the JPY. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is putting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session. For now, the Yen appears to have broken a two-day losing streak against its US counterpart, although traders may refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of key US-China trade talks in London. In addition, stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates soon this year, which could serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit USD/JPY pair losses. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.85, SL 144.85, TP 141.85
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004