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Dollar

Gold Futures – Pre-Killzone WatchPrice spent all of yesterday grinding bullish with strong impulsive legs, but things are finally slowing down near the highs. We’re now seeing signs that the market might be ready for a pullback or liquidity grab before deciding its next leg. Current Range: 4,005 (D-L) → 4,081 (D-H) Bias: Bullish overall, but watching for short-term weakness. Gameplan: Look for a possible sweep above 4,081 during London or NY Killzone. If we get a sharp rejection or displacement after that sweep, I’ll be interested in a sell setup targeting the 4,046–4,005 range. If price holds above 4,046 and forms clean FVGs, continuation to 4,100+ stays on the table. This is the pause before the next move. No reason to front-run it — I’ll let the killzone reveal where the liquidity really wants to go. 💭 Patience pays — wait for the sweep and shift. — Woodz | #NOFOMO
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
U.S. Dollar Index: Wave C Downtrend Targeting New LowsTVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY 📉 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Wave C in Progress The DXY remains in a corrective phase after completing Wave B₂. A clear A–B–C structure is unfolding, with the current move forming the final Wave C. The recent flag pattern (A–B–C–D–E) suggests a potential continuation to the downside. A break below 98.86 would confirm the start of Wave 5 of C, targeting the 95.4 → 94.3 support zone. Elliott Wave Overview: Wave A: completed Wave B₂: expanded flat Wave C: unfolding with 1–4 structure complete Key Levels: 🔹 Resistance: 99.75 🔹 Confirmation Sell: 98.86 🔹 Targets: 96-95-94-93 Bias remains bearish while price trades below 99.75.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trwin
EURUSD – 1H | Rejection from Support Zone, Bullish Correction FX:EURUSD Market Overview EURUSD is currently reacting strongly from a well-defined demand/support base, following an extended downside leg. The lower trendline and psychological support are holding firm, indicating potential for a corrective bullish leg towards the mid-range resistance zone if price sustains above 1.1650. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → 🎯 Target 1: 1.1683 🎯 Target 2: 1.1713 🎯 Target 3: 1.1778 (major rejection zone retest) ❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Invalidation below 1.1640 (clean break under support). Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 1.1713 / 1.1778 Support 🟢: 1.1645 / 1.1660 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Long
by vipblueprintfx
XAUUSD Gold to 4KTimeline is 6 months - 2 years The crash has already started. At some point everyone will start to sell thier treasury bonds, yields will go up proportionally to inflation until the dollar loses it's status as the global currency and dramatic measures are used to stop inflation resulting in stagflation and yield recovery. Else hyper inflation and the dollar is replaced entirely. I see the momentum indicators shifting in various markets. Below is a brief summary of each, relevant indicators/markets. see charts. US1YRBILLS WTI CRUDE SILVERUSD BONKCOIN TSLA
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mikhiavelli
4
Gold Cant stop...Wont Stop....Price continues pressing into new highs with no meaningful pullback, showing strong safe-haven momentum amid rising geopolitical tension. Watching for signs of exhaustion near current highs — ideally a liquidity sweep above the Daily High (DH) before any structural shift confirms. No rush to fade strength. Waiting for: A clean displacement break below intraday structure. Retest of an unmitigated FVG or imbalance for potential short. Until then, bullish continuation remains in control. Bias: Neutral → Bullish (waiting for confirmation) Setup on Watch: Liquidity Sweep + SSB (Shift in Structure Break)
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 7, 2025 EURUSDThe euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) after France's new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and his government resigned on Monday, just hours after the cabinet was announced. Sébastien Lecornu resigned just a few weeks after his appointment, making his government the shortest-lived in modern French history. This raises concerns about a new political crisis in France and puts some pressure on the euro. The ongoing US government shutdown may raise concerns about its impact on the country's economy, which could lead to a decline in the dollar and become a favorable factor for the main currency pair. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its October meeting amid signs of a weakening labor market. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1665, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1480
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY Watching 98.800 Resistance as Shutdown Risks Weigh on DollarHey Traders, in today’s trading session we are monitoring DXY for a potential selling opportunity around the 98.800 zone. The Dollar Index remains in a broader downtrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching a key daily resistance area. Structure: The market has been forming lower highs, consistent with bearish momentum. The 98.800 level aligns with both structural resistance and trendline rejection zones. Fundamentals: The ongoing US government shutdown continues to pressure sentiment around the Dollar. The longer the impasse persists, the higher the risk of fiscal strain and downside pressure on the USD. Next move: Watching how price reacts around 98.800 — a rejection here could confirm further downside continuation in line with the prevailing trend. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
11
De-Dollarization and the Global Currency WarIntroduction: The Shifting Sands of Global Finance For decades, the United States dollar (USD) has reigned supreme as the world’s dominant reserve currency — the central pillar of global trade, finance, and economic stability. From oil transactions to international debt settlements, the dollar became more than just a currency; it was the bloodstream of globalization. But in recent years, a strong wave of economic nationalism, geopolitical rivalry, and strategic diversification has begun to challenge this hegemony — a process known as “de-dollarization.” Simultaneously, we’re witnessing an intensifying “currency war” — a global competition among nations to protect their economic sovereignty, control exchange rates, and reduce dependency on U.S.-led monetary influence. Together, de-dollarization and currency warfare are reshaping the financial map of the 21st century, with implications that reach from the energy markets of the Middle East to the central banks of Asia and Latin America. This 2000-word analysis dives deep into the rise of de-dollarization, explores its causes and strategies, examines the mechanics of currency wars, and forecasts the potential shape of the next global monetary order. 1. The Roots of Dollar Dominance After World War II, the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement established the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Other global currencies were tied to the dollar, making it the foundation of postwar economic stability. Even after President Richard Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, the dollar retained its dominance because of its stability, liquidity, and the economic might of the United States. By the late 20th century, the dollar had become: The primary reserve currency, held by central banks worldwide. The medium of international trade, particularly in oil (the “petrodollar” system). The currency of global finance, underpinning stock markets, bonds, and derivatives. In short, control of the dollar meant control of the global economic bloodstream — and this financial power translated into political leverage. 2. What Is De-Dollarization? De-dollarization refers to the deliberate process of reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade, finance, and reserves. It’s not about completely abandoning the dollar, but about diversifying away from it to limit vulnerability to U.S. monetary policy and sanctions. Countries and blocs leading this movement include: China, promoting the yuan (renminbi) in global trade. Russia, moving away from dollar-based settlements after sanctions. BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, now joined by others) working toward a shared currency system. Middle Eastern countries, exploring non-dollar oil transactions. Latin America and Africa, forming regional trade agreements in local currencies. The motivation? A mix of economic independence, geopolitical resilience, and strategic competition. 3. The Key Drivers Behind De-Dollarization (a) U.S. Sanctions and Weaponization of Finance The U.S. uses its control over global payment systems (like SWIFT and dollar-clearing banks) as a geopolitical tool. Nations such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia have faced financial exclusion through U.S. sanctions. This has sparked fear among emerging economies that dollar dependency exposes them to political risk — accelerating efforts to create alternative payment systems (e.g., China’s CIPS, Russia’s SPFS, and India’s RuPay/UPI cross-border systems). (b) Rise of China and the Yuan China’s economic growth and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have given the yuan increasing global exposure. Beijing aims to internationalize its currency by encouraging trade in yuan and developing offshore yuan markets (especially in Hong Kong, Singapore, and London). (c) The BRICS Challenge The BRICS alliance has emerged as a collective front against Western economic dominance. The bloc’s discussions around a BRICS common currency or a gold-backed trade settlement system indicate a long-term ambition to challenge dollar supremacy. (d) U.S. Debt and Inflation The U.S. government’s rising national debt (over $34 trillion) and the repeated use of quantitative easing have weakened confidence in the dollar’s stability. Countries fear that excessive dollar printing could erode their reserves’ value, prompting diversification into gold, the yuan, and other currencies. (e) Digital Currencies and Blockchain Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) offer new pathways for global payments. China’s digital yuan is leading this race, aiming to bypass the traditional dollar-based banking infrastructure entirely. 4. The Mechanics of a Global Currency War A currency war, also known as “competitive devaluation,” occurs when countries intentionally lower the value of their own currencies to boost exports, attract foreign investment, and reduce trade deficits. How It Works: By devaluing their currency, a country’s goods become cheaper abroad. This can strengthen exports but also increases import costs and inflation. When multiple countries engage in this simultaneously, global financial instability can follow — hence the term “war.” Historical Examples: 1930s Great Depression: Nations devalued currencies to recover from economic collapse. 1980s U.S.-Japan tension: Japan’s yen appreciation reshaped global trade. 2010s “Currency War 2.0”: After the financial crisis, countries used ultra-loose monetary policy and quantitative easing to stay competitive. Today, the modern currency war involves not just exchange rates but geopolitical influence, payment systems, and financial infrastructure. 5. De-Dollarization and Currency Wars: The Modern Battlefield In the 2020s, de-dollarization and currency competition have become two sides of the same coin. The following arenas illustrate this growing conflict: (a) Energy Markets The traditional petrodollar system — oil sold in U.S. dollars — is under strain. China and Russia have signed major energy contracts in yuan and rubles, while Saudi Arabia has hinted at accepting non-dollar payments for oil. The India-UAE rupee-dirham trade settlement is another example of regional diversification. (b) Central Bank Reserves According to IMF data, the dollar’s share of global reserves has declined from 70% in 2000 to around 58% in 2024, marking a slow but steady erosion. Central banks are increasing holdings in gold, yuan, and euro, signaling a rebalancing of trust. (c) Cross-Border Settlements Nations are exploring bilateral trade agreements in local currencies — for instance, India-Russia rupee-ruble trade, China-Brazil yuan settlement, and ASEAN nations’ local currency framework. (d) Digital Currency Warfare With the U.S. lagging in CBDC development, countries like China are pioneering digital payment systems that can function independently of SWIFT and U.S. banking oversight. This could redefine how international money moves in the next decade. 6. Winners and Losers in the De-Dollarization Era Winners: Emerging Economies – Greater autonomy over monetary policy and trade settlements. China and BRICS Members – Enhanced global financial influence and regional cooperation. Commodity Exporters – Ability to price goods in multiple currencies. Gold and Digital Asset Markets – Investors view these as alternative stores of value amid dollar uncertainty. Losers: U.S. Financial System – Reduced demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar may weaken the U.S. fiscal position. Dollar-Debt Dependent Nations – Countries heavily indebted in dollars could face volatility. Global Investors – Increased currency risk and reduced liquidity in traditional markets. 7. Is a New Global Currency Order Emerging? While de-dollarization is gaining traction, a complete end to dollar dominance is unlikely in the short term. The U.S. still has unmatched advantages: The deepest financial markets in the world. Global trust in its institutions and legal system. Military and geopolitical clout backing the currency’s credibility. However, the trend is unmistakable — the world is slowly transitioning toward a multipolar currency system, where the dollar, euro, yuan, and possibly regional digital currencies coexist in a competitive balance. Future trade blocs might operate on multi-currency platforms, and international reserves could become more diversified. 8. The Future: Cooperation or Confrontation? The next decade could unfold in one of two broad scenarios: Scenario 1: Cooperative Multipolarity Nations collaborate through institutions like the IMF, BRICS Bank, and AIIB, building systems that support currency diversity while maintaining global liquidity. In this world, de-dollarization doesn’t mean destruction — it means balance. Scenario 2: Financial Fragmentation Geopolitical rivalry intensifies, creating currency blocs (USD-based, yuan-based, euro-based). Trade becomes more regionalized, and financial flows become fragmented. This could lead to volatility, capital flight, and higher transaction costs worldwide. In either case, technological innovation — from digital currencies to blockchain trade settlements — will play a defining role in shaping monetary competition. Conclusion: The Dawn of a New Financial Era De-dollarization and the currency war are not isolated economic trends; they are strategic transformations redefining how power is distributed across nations. What began as a defensive move by a few sanctioned countries has evolved into a systemic global recalibration of monetary order. The dollar will likely remain powerful, but its monopoly is fading. The 21st-century global economy may no longer be built around a single currency but around a network of competing and cooperating monetary systems. For traders, policymakers, and investors, this means one thing: the world of finance is entering a new era — more decentralized, more digital, and more dynamic than ever before.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Gold Futures (MGC) – No Pullback, Just Pure StrengthPrice never offered a clean pullback yesterday — just an aggressive continuation straight through prior structure. That type of behavior usually signals either institutional repricing or momentum fueled by broader uncertainty (like the ongoing U.S. government shutdown risk). 🔹 Bias: Bullish until a clear break of intraday structure 🔹 Current Levels: ‣ W-H: 3922.8 ‣ M-H: 3899.5 ‣ D-L: 3909.0 💡 Notes: Price is extremely extended, but until we see evidence of rejection or a 1H BOS (break of structure), the path of least resistance remains up. I’m watching closely for a controlled pullback into demand — ideally near 3920–3900 — to join the next wave higher. Still keeping an eye on news risk tonight; if the shutdown proceeds, volatility could spike and disrupt the structure. #GoldFutures #MGC #FuturesTrading #SmartMoney #DayTrading #PriceAction #NOFOMO
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
US Dollar at Risk of More Losses amid Shutdown Woes, Fed DilemmaThe US dollar TVC:DXY has been knocked by last week’s US government shutdown and the subsequent economic blackout. At the same time, the Federal Reserve can’t figure out what’s worse – inflation or job crunch. After Congress failed to pass a funding bill, the government officially went dark at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. Traders, however, didn’t panic. Stocks climbed to fresh record highs , gold OANDA:XAUUSD popped, yields dipped — and the dollar slipped further into the red . The greenback, usually the go-to safe haven during global turmoil, is acting like it forgot about that job description. With the Federal Reserve cornered between a slowing economy and stubborn inflation, plus fresh political uncertainty in D.C., the dollar’s shine is fading fast. ⚖️ When Politics and Policy Collide Let’s start with the elephant in the room: the government shutdown. Historically, these dark D.C. moments shave about a tenth of a percentage point off GDP per week. In other words, the economy loses a few hairs — not a limb. But this one hits differently. That’s because the Fed is already walking a tightrope. With unemployment creeping up ( 4.3% in August and lost jobs in June ) and inflation still running at 2.9% , the central bank has little margin for error. The longer the shutdown drags on, the harder it becomes for policymakers to parse what’s real economic weakness and what’s just delayed government paychecks. Investors, meanwhile, are pricing in a full quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting and another one in December. The market is betting that Powell & Co. will prioritize saving jobs over fighting inflation. And that typically means one thing: a softer dollar. 📉 The Dollar’s Safe-Haven Cred Takes a Hit Remember when the dollar used to rally whenever things got messy? Not this year. Despite trade tensions, geopolitical flare-ups, and now a full-blown government shutdown, the dollar has lost roughly 10% since January. Part of that weakness stems from shifting interest-rate expectations. When the Fed signals it’s going to cut, yields on US assets drop — and so does the appeal of holding dollars. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, but they also mean less income for investors parking money in dollar-denominated bonds. The euro took advantage, climbing above $1.17 as traders rotated out of the greenback. Gold also basked in the dollar’s weakness, closing Friday at $3,886 an ounce — a fresh all-time closing high. And just to rub salt in the wound, even cryptocurrencies have outperformed. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , the digital rebel of finance, has gained about 35% this year and on Sunday hit a record high above $125,000 per coin. 🧩 Fed Dilemma: Jobs vs. Inflation The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is simple on paper: keep prices stable and employment high. But right now, the two goals are in open conflict. On the one hand, the labor market is clearly slowing. August brought just 22,000 new jobs — the weakest print since early 2020. Revised data for June showed the economy actually lost 13,000 staffers net. Those aren’t the kinds of numbers that inspire confidence. On the other side, inflation is still running above target. Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite measure, clocked in at 2.9% in August — unchanged from July but still nearly a full percentage point above the goal. So what’s the play? Cut rates to support jobs and risk stoking inflation? Or hold firm, keep inflation contained, and risk a deeper slowdown? That’s the central banker’s version of “Would you rather.” 👀 The Fed’s Independence (and the Trump Factor) There’s another layer of intrigue: politics. The Supreme Court just deferred a hearing on President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook — a Biden appointee — until January. Cook can remain at the Fed in the meantime, but the episode has traders questioning just how independent the central bank really is under the new administration. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, nearing the end of his term, has been caught between maintaining credibility and avoiding direct political confrontation. His latest move — a quarter-point rate cut in September — was meant to show responsiveness to data, not pressure. But optics matter, and the market is watching for signs of interference. If investors start believing the Fed is bending to political will, confidence in US monetary policy could erode further — another potential strike against the dollar. 💡 What It Means for Traders Here’s the breakdown: • For FX traders: The dollar remains vulnerable, especially if the Fed confirms more cuts are on the way. Pairs like FX:EURUSD and FX:GBPUSD could see more upside. Meanwhile, FX:USDJPY might stay volatile as yen buyers return to their comfort zone. • For gold bulls: Lower yields and a weaker dollar create the perfect storm. Gold looks strong despite charting new horizons, though traders should watch for a potential pullback if the Fed’s tone shifts. • For equity investors: Rate cuts are generally bullish. Cheaper money means higher valuations — at least until inflation becomes a problem again. • For crypto enthusiasts: A dovish Fed tends to favor risk assets, and Bitcoin could benefit as a hedge against both inflation and institutional confusion. 🧮 The Shutdown Math: Small Impact, Big Symbolism Economists will tell you that a shutdown doesn’t tank the economy — but it does rattle sentiment. Each week of a federal closure trims GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage point. If this one matches the 35-day record from 2018–19 (during Trump’s first term), we’re looking at a 0.5% haircut. Manageable, but not ideal when the economy’s already wobbling. More concerning is what a prolonged shutdown means for data flow. If key reports like nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP or CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI get delayed, the Fed will be in the dark heading into its next meeting — and that’s when mistakes happen. Markets hate uncertainty, and uncertainty is the shutdown’s main export. 🧭 The Road Ahead The dollar’s trajectory from here depends on whether the Fed can strike the right balance. If Powell emphasizes employment and doubles down on cuts, you may expect the greenback to weaken further. But if inflation surprises to the upside, markets could quickly reverse their dovish bets. Make sure to keep an eye on the Economic calendar . September’s inflation hits October 15 and the Fed’s meeting is on deck for October 28-29. Off to you : Where do you see the dollar by year end? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
TVC:DXY
by TradingView
13
Gold Futures (MGC) – Pushing Into New HighsPrice continues to climb into all-new highs with very little pullback, showing clear bullish momentum. However, structure is getting thin, and momentum could begin to exhaust soon. 🔹 Current Bias: Bullish — until 4H structure breaks. 🔹 Key Levels: ‣ W-H: 3928 ‣ D-H: 3916 ‣ D-L: 3861 ‣ Daily FVG: 3820–3720 💡 Notes: Price has yet to rebalance the large Daily FVG below. If we sweep external liquidity above 3928–3935 and fail to close strong, that could set up a pullback or even a deeper correction into the Daily FVG zone. Volume profile shows thin structure between 3860–3820 — if momentum fades, that area could act as a magnet for price. For now, the bullish pressure remains intact — but I’m watching closely for exhaustion signs or a liquidity grab setup at the highs. #GoldFutures #MGC #FuturesTrading #ICT #PriceAction #SmartMoney #DayTrading #NOFOMO
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
GBPUSD📈 GBP/USD | Daily Price Action, Liquidity & Execution Plan Price has already delivered into and rebalanced the Daily IFVG, completing that inefficiency. With that objective met, my focus is now on the next Daily FVG (D2), where price is currently reacting. Liquidity Narrative • ✅ Daily IFVG already rebalanced → inefficiency corrected. • 🔜 Price expected to trade through FVG D2, rebalancing it and turning it into an IFVG. • 💧 Next draw on liquidity: Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above recent highs. • 🎯 Higher-timeframe liquidity target → blue Daily IFVG, sitting in premium territory with confluence of resting liquidity. Execution Plan • Looking for LTF confirmation entries (M15/H1) inside the Daily FVG (D2). • Ideal setup: liquidity sweep of intraday highs (BSL) → displacement into the FVG zone → refined entry. • Partial profits at BSL; main target at blue Daily IFVG. Risk Management • Invalidation if price breaks below the prior swing low that created the displacement into FVG D2. • Risk kept tight, only engaging if confirmation aligns with narrative. • No setup, no trade — patience until price delivers. 📌 Bias: Bullish order flow, with price seeking liquidity above until higher IFVG is satisfied.
Long
by KEPLARTRADING
Gold Selloff EOYGold has reached a critical resistance structure around $3,880-$3,895. As in recent post the target for Goldman Sachs was $3,700 with an exhaust level of $3,880. Even with government shutdown, I believe cryptos and coming crypto ETF’s (XRP) will become dominant in “safe haven” assets. The price of gold is extremely overbought and the greed is at an all time high. My targets will sound outrageous. But we will possibly see gold get reckoned in the next two months into the next 2 years. The stable price of gold is below $2,100 and is sitting at a support area of $1,742. With an actual price liquidation zone at $1,572. This is simple physics and realism. Everything that goes up has to come down. This gold price not only reflects fear, but extreme greed. Actuality will set in soon. -Goodluck, This is NFA R2C
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by R2CTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 1, 2025 USDJPYThe summary of opinions from participants at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in September showed that board members discussed the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future. This confirmed market expectations that the central bank would stick to its policy normalization course. In addition, growing geopolitical tensions and the US government shutdown may continue to provide some support for the Japanese yen (JPY) as a safe-haven currency, which in turn could be a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the BoJ's stance differs significantly from forecasts that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs twice this year. The latter does not help the US dollar (USD) attract significant buyers. Moreover, the divergence in the policy outlooks of the Bank of Japan and the Fed should favor the lower-yielding Japanese yen and help limit the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for strong follow-through buying before taking a position in anticipation of a significant strengthening. Trade recommendation: SELL 146.75, SL 147.95, TP 143.95
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Macro Data can keep Gold Pushing! Key Levels: Daily High (DH): 3899.5 Monthly High (MH): 3899.5 Daily Low (DL): 3820.4 Weekly High (WH): 3824.6 Weekly Low (WL): 3717.7 📊 Technical Outlook Price is currently trading near 3890, holding strong after yesterday’s impulsive bullish move. If we see a clean break back above yesterday’s high, continuation toward DH / MH 3899.5 looks highly probable. The recent structure continues to support bullish pressure with higher highs and shallow retracements. 🌍 Macro Watch All eyes are on the U.S. Government shutdown threat tonight at midnight. If Congress fails to reach an agreement, volatility in safe-haven assets like gold could spike. A shutdown scenario would likely support continued bullish pressure on gold as risk sentiment shifts. 🎯 Trade Idea Watching for a reclaim and hold above yesterday’s high → confirmation for bullish continuation. Short-term target: 3899.5 (DH / MH) liquidity. Failure to hold above could open a retrace back toward 3820–3824 support zone (DL / WH). ✅ Summary Bias remains bullish as long as price holds near/above yesterday’s high. Macro uncertainty (government shutdown) could act as a catalyst, so staying nimble and risk-aware is key. ⚡️What do you think — does gold have enough momentum to clear 3899.5, or will macro risk force a deeper retrace first?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
13
DXY Daily Outlook: Bearish Pressure BuildsLooking at the DXY (US Dollar Index) chart as of September 30, 2025, the long-term structure is clearly in a descending wedge pattern, showing sustained weakness since the sharp rejection from the 100.23 level earlier this year. Price action has been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, respecting the upper and lower trendline resistance and support. Currently, DXY is trading around 97.80, slightly above the mid-support zone, but momentum suggests that bears remain in control. The chart also highlights multiple Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) points, showing failed attempts by bulls to reverse the trend. Each rally has been capped below descending resistance, most recently around the 98–99 zone, which is now acting as a supply area. The ongoing compression in price suggests a possible breakout direction soon. From a Fibonacci perspective, the major retracement levels drawn from the swing high (100.23) to the swing low (96.18) give clear downside targets. If the wedge breaks bearish, first support lies near 96.18, followed by Fib -0.382 (94.63), then deeper at -0.618 (93.67). A strong bearish continuation could extend toward the -1.618 projection (89.62), which aligns with long-term demand. On the other side, if bulls manage to reclaim 98.50–99.00 with strong volume, it could trigger a corrective leg toward 100.23 (previous high and wedge resistance). However, given repeated rejections, this remains the less likely scenario unless macro fundamentals (such as Fed policy or global risk sentiment) strongly shift in favor of the dollar. The RSI/Momentum structure would likely be neutral-to-bearish given the flat but declining structure. The price remains below the major moving averages (200-day SMA/EMA), adding weight to the bearish bias. Momentum / indicators Momentum on the daily appears neutral-to-bearish (rallies are weaker and get rejected). RSI on daily (if checked) is likely flat-to-slightly below neutral, not showing strong bullish divergence — therefore rallies are corrective. Price is trading under the major moving averages on the daily (200MA acts as dynamic resistance), reinforcing the bearish bias unless reclaimed decisively. Key daily levels Immediate resistance / supply: 98.00 – 99.00 (daily rejection zone). Invalidation for bearish view (daily close basis): daily close above 100.23 / decisive break and hold above 100.5–101 would flip bias. Near-term support: 96.18 (first target / pivot). Secondary targets if 96.18 breaks: 94.63, 93.67 then 89.62 as extended target on a strong bearish continuation. Price-action scenarios Bearish continuation (favored): Price respects the upper descending trendline, forms a daily rejection or bearish engulfing at ~98.0–99.0 → short with first target at 96.18, partial take at 94.63 if momentum continues. Neutral / consolidation: Price oscillates 97–98.5, chopping in wedge — wait for a daily close below 96.60 or above 99.50 before taking directional trade. Bullish breakout (less likely): Daily close above 100.23 with follow-through and volume would signal trend change toward 102+ — invalidate shorts and look for long setups only after retest. In Summary Trend: Bearish within a descending wedge. Resistance: 98.50 → 99.00 → 100.23. Support: 96.18 → 94.63 → 93.67 → 89.62. Long-term bias: As long as 99–100 zone is not broken decisively, DXY is likely to head lower toward 94–90 levels in coming months. Risk factor: Only a macro-driven breakout above 100.23 would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum toward 102+. One-line Conclusion Daily bias = bearish while price stays under the 98–100 supply zone; preferred approach is to short on daily rejections or after a break+retest of 96.18, with extended targets at 94.6 → 93.7 → 89.6, and clear invalidation only on a daily close above ~100.23. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:DXYShort
by SibiSh
Gold Futures (MGCZ5) – H4 Gap in PlayPrice pushed aggressively bullish all day yesterday with little to no pullbacks. That momentum left behind a fresh H4 Fair Value Gap (FVG) sitting just above the Weekly High (WH) level. If we see a pullback into this area, it could offer a solid setup for continuation higher. ⚠️ Key considerations: If buyers stay strong, price may run liquidity above 3863.7 (D-H) before any meaningful retracement. If sentiment shifts, a deeper draw into the Daily FVG below 3764 remains on the table. With global uncertainty (military meetings, de-dollarization, possible U.S. shutdown), volatility risk is elevated. 🎯 Game Plan: Watch the H4 FVG near WH for rejection / entry signals. Bias remains bullish while above 3785 (D-L). Break below D-L opens the door toward the Daily FVG.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
6
Gold Futures Weekly Outlook (MGCZ5)📍 Key Levels on Watch Friday’s High (D-H): 3814.5 Friday’s Low (D-L): 3764.2 → New support Weekly High (WFH): 3824.6 Weekly Low (W-L): 3717.7 Daily FVG Below: 3746.3–3735.2 🧭 Technical Outlook Price is currently sitting right at the 50% midpoint of Friday’s move. Friday’s Low (3764.2) is the key inflection point: If defended → bullish continuation toward 3814.5 and possibly 3824.6. If broken → expect a quick flush into the Daily FVG (3746–3735) before buyers step back in. Volume profile shows a low-volume pocket below 3770, which could accelerate moves down into that Daily FVG if support fails. 🌍 Macro Context De-Dollarization trends continue to support Gold in the longer term. Geopolitical tensions (military leadership meetings this Tuesday + ongoing global conflicts) = potential safe haven demand. US Political Risk: Government shutdown threats and loss of traction for the Trump administration add uncertainty → historically supportive for Gold. Safe Haven Flows: When global stability is questioned, Gold is a direct beneficiary. 🎯 Scenarios to Watch Bullish Case: Friday’s low holds → retest of 3814.5 and possibly new weekly highs above 3824.6. Bearish Case: Break of 3764.2 → fast move into Daily FVG (3746–3735). Watch for liquidity sweep & reversal setup inside that FVG. 📌 My Plan Bias leans bullish this week given the macro backdrop. BUT — I’ll wait for price to show its hand around Friday’s low before committing to either continuation or discount entries. Staying flexible: both scenarios mapped, execution will be clean.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
DOLLAR INDEX – Falling Wedge Pattern📉 The Dollar Index is forming a falling wedge, a classic reversal pattern. 🔹 Price is approaching the upper trendline resistance (point E). 🔹 Expect a potential pullback toward the support zone (highlighted in blue). 🔹 Pattern repeats: After E, a corrective dip is likely before the next move. ✅ Key Points: Falling wedge usually signals trend reversal or continuation. Watch for breakout confirmation above resistance for bullish continuation. Current focus: resistance zone near 98–98.2, then potential drop to 96–97 support. 💡 Lesson: Patience pays — wait for clear rejection or breakout before trading this setup. ---
TVC:DXY
by Greenfireforex
14