GER40-DAX 4H – Waiting like a lion, no move till the level hits📊DAX/GERMANY40 | GER40 - 4H Analysis: Buy Setup
Hello Guys,
Here’s my 4-hour GER40 analysis for you.
These are the exact buy levels I’ll be watching:
🔵BUY level: 23918.2
🔴 Stop level:23590.6 (or adjust based on your own margin)
🟢 TP1: 24046.1
🟢 TP2: 24260.7
🟢 TP3: 24539.6
Risk-to-reward ratio on this setup: 2.00
If GER40 reaches these levels, I’ll definitely take a buy position.
Every like is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Thanks to everyone supporting me!
DXY
US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips Today: Bearish Pressures from Fed?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down today, trading around 98.86 to 98.91, with a daily decline of approximately 0.15% to 0.21% or about 0.15 to 0.23 points.
This extends a pullback from recent highs near 99.57, marking the second consecutive session of losses as the index slips below 99.00.
Key pressures include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on a softening labor market, which have boosted expectations for another quarter-point rate cut this month, followed by more in December and potentially three additional reductions next year.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed critical economic data releases, adding uncertainty and weighing on sentiment. Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, such as threats of a cooking oil embargo and sanctions on related firms, are further undermining the dollar amid broader economic risks.
Despite a 2.31% monthly gain, the index remains down 4.52% over the past year, with forecasts pointing to further softening toward 98.43 by quarter-end and 96.54 in 12 months. Recent market chatter reinforces a bearish tilt, with the euro and yen gaining ground on related policy shifts abroad.
GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line
If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop.
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Executive summary
• A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T).
• At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t).
• That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze.
• Price targets (framework, not prophecy):
o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz
o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz
o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow.
These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below).
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1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen)
Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”).
Why it’s plausible in gold right now:
• The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on.
• Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end.
• CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive.
Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative):
For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about
Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}.
At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday.
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2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation
Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B.
Gold the rotation would buy:
• At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t
• At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t
For scale:
• Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply.
• ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity.
• Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates.
Futures-only lens (capacity check):
At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI.
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3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there)
Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks).
A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020)
• 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%.
• Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025):
o +71% → ~$6,050/oz
o +101% → ~$7,100/oz
Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range.
B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay
If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact:
• From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside.
• Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts.
C) Second-round effects
• Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid.
• FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher.
Putting it together—scenario bands
Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target
Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600
Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500
Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes)
$5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop.
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4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher
• Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock.
• Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day.
• Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze.
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5) Key risks / reality checks
• Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays.
• Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow.
• Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes.
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References (most load-bearing)
• Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025).
• Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t.
• Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day.
• ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise.
• Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. (
• Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV.
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Stop!Loss|Market View: SILVER🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for SILVER ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 50.05638
💰TP: 47.31895
⛔️SL: 52.62271
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
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💬 Description: The most likely scenario for silver is currently moving toward the nearest support level at 50.78000, where a downward breakout is expected. In this case, it would be safe to say the local uptrend has been broken. An alternative (less likely) scenario suggests a new high near 52, where a reversal could be anticipated. In both cases, it's best to look for a potential entry once the price reaches indicated levels.
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Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Stop!Loss|Market View: GBPUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the GBPUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.32869
💰TP: 1.31574
⛔️SL: 1.33603
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
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💬 Description: The situation for the pound is very similar to that for the euro. Here, too, the most likely scenario is further price accumulation near the key support level (1.32870), followed by an expected downward breakout toward 1.31000. An alternative scenario involves monitoring a sell entry point near the resistance level at 1.34500. Also, the 1.27000 - 1.28000 range can be looked for as an additional target.
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Momentum Breakout into Strength | D-H Flip ConfirmedStrong continuation from last session’s impulsive push.
I caught my move during the Tokyo impulsive hour after price broke cleanly above 4175 — confirming a momentum breakout setup on the 15-min chart.
The previous Daily High (4191.2) has now flipped into solid support, reinforcing the bullish narrative I’ve been tracking since the start of the week.
My original weekly target was 4200 — we’ve exceeded that level now, and the momentum still looks healthy.
Price action is slowing ahead of the London session, which could set the stage for another expansion leg. If bullish pressure holds, I’m watching 4230–4250 next, with 4500 as a stretch target.
💡 Key Notes:
Setup: Momentum Breakout
Bias: Bullish
Entry: 4177.3 | Exit: 4185.1
Result: +$386 (5 Contracts)
Time in Trade: 42m
Context: Daily High Flip + Strong Impulse Continuation
#Gold #Futures #DayTrading #PriceAction #Breakout #TradingView #MGC #Trader #NoFOMO #Discipline #MomentumBreakout #ICTInspired
US DOLLAR IS FILLING IN DISCOUNT
Traders are pricing in a possible Fed rate cut, while fresh U.S.–China trade tension adds uncertainty to global flows.
Technically, the dollar sits in its weekly mid-range, printing a 5th inside bar behind last Thursday’s move — the classic order-loading phase.
Price is rotating between a key bullish low weakness zone at 98.30 and a bearish order block near 99.00 — a compression range where liquidity builds before expansion.
Structure remains bearish-biased but currently in bull-back mode.
Buyers are pressing into bearish volume nodes, leaving no clean swing setups — just a 50/50 zone where patience pays.
Expect one side of this range to be cleared before the next directional leg.
Until then, we stay tactical — cross-market focused, scalping for bread and butter while the market sets up its next move.
USD/CAD - Wedge Breakout (15.10.2025)📊 Setup Overview: OANDA:USDCAD
USD/CAD has completed a rising wedge formation and broken below the support trendline — a classic sign of bearish reversal pressure. The price is now rejecting from the resistance zone, supported by weakening momentum within the Ichimoku cloud. This setup indicates a potential move toward the next major support levels.
📈 Trade Plan:
Bias: Bearish
Sell Entry Zone: Near 1.4040 – 1.4060 (resistance retest area)
1st Target: 1.3992 ✅
2nd Target: 1.3954 🎯
Invalidation: Above 1.4075 resistance zone
🧩 Supporting Factors:
Clear wedge breakout below trendline
Resistance zone rejection after sharp upward push
Price trading below Ichimoku cloud, signaling bearish control
Volume and structure aligning for a potential downside continuation
#USDCAD #Forex #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #ChartPattern #WedgeBreakout #ForexSignals #BearishSetup #FXTrading #Ichimoku #ChartsDontLie
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and use proper risk management before taking any trade.
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DXY Weekly Outlook (Count 3)This is a weekly timeframe outlook of the TVC:DXY . This is in alignment with my previously posted outlook which so far is playing out close to how I expected. This shows the wider view of what I think could be playing out. Still targeting the same yellow zone for a potential termination of the yellow (C) wave, after which we could see a counter trend consolidation. Current price action on the lower timeframe looks like it is forming a bearish flat correction which could be wave 2 in red. I'll look get a lower time frame update together, when time allows. More comments on the chart.
Dollar Index Wave 5 Incoming | Elliott Wave Analysis | DXY Break📊 In today’s Day 51 analysis, we break down the Dollar Index (DXY) using Elliott Wave theory.
Price completed Wave (iv) and is now preparing for a potential Wave (v) decline targeting the 94–95 zone.
This could bring short-term weakness to the USD and strength to EUR/USD.
🧩 Structure: Impulse → Wave (v) in progress
🎯 Target: 94.00 – 95.00
⚠️ Invalidation: Above 100.50
DXY: The Dollar’s Long Cycle — Heading Back to 9/11 Levels?The U.S. Dollar Index ( INDEX:DXY ) has navigated through decades of pivotal global shifts — from the end of the Gold Standard and the 1979 Oil Crisis to the Plaza Accord, the Global Financial Crisis, and now the post-pandemic monetary reset.
Each of these events marked critical macro turning points — and each time the dollar found new structural strength after major dislocations.
Now, DXY has consolidated above long-term resistance and appears to be building energy for another leg higher.
If history rhymes, we may see the dollar rally toward the levels reached during the aftermath of the September 11 attacks — a zone that historically represented both global uncertainty and U.S. capital inflows.
Bias: Bullish
Target Zone: 120–122
Timeframe: Multi-year (monthly chart perspective)
GBP/USD - Breakout Pattern (14.10.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern.
This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.3434
2nd Resistance – 1.3484
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⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and conduct your own research before trading.
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DXY index Near Resistance – Will Powell Trigger the Next Move?To kick off this week, let's take a quick look at the upcoming key indexes in the economic calendar before diving into the DXY analysis ( TVC:DXY ).
On Tuesday, we have Fed Chair Powell speaking, which could stir some excitement in the DXY index and ripple through correlated financial markets . Then, on Thursday , we have a bunch of key indexes like Core PPI, Core Retail Sales, PPI, and Unemployment Claims coming out. These releases could spark some volatility as well.
So, before we jump into the DXY analysis , I wanted to give you a heads-up on this week’s events
From a technical analysis standpoint , the DXY index is currently moving near a Heavy Resistance zone($101.30-$99.42) . At the same time, it has managed to break above the upper line of its descending channel and is now in a pullback phase to retest that broken line.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY is completing wave B of a zigzag corrective(ABC/5-3-5) .
I expect that wave B will finish around the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and we might see the DXY index approach that Resistance zone($100.58-$99.93) before Powell’s speech tomorrow .
First Target: $99.770
Second Target: $100.06
Stop Loss(SL): $98.28
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
U.S. Dollar Index Analysis (DXYUSD), 4-Hour Time Frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for GOLD ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: -
💰TP: -
⛔️SL: -
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
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💬 Description: Metals continue to demonstrate impressive results. As a result, we are seeing new all-time highs. It's difficult to find any potential buy or sell levels for gold, but we can highlight an area around 4200-4250, where sell trades, especially mid-term, are highly likely to be liquidated. This assumption is based on a 25% price move from the start of the current rally since August, as well as the point of control (POC) of the same rally around 3650. We should likely expect the end of the US shutdown, after which we could see a correction in metals.
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Profits for all ✅
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Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the EURUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.15326
💰TP: 1.14123
⛔️SL: 1.16348
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The price continues to accumulate near short-term support 1.16600, indicating a likely breakout toward 1.15500. The most conservative entry points for selling are, surely, located directly at 1.16600, more aggressive - would be to look for selling from approximately current prices.
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❗️ [ b]Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Gold Off to the Races | No Pullbacks, Just PressureNew week and Gold came out the gate running. Momentum’s been relentless — no pullbacks, no hesitation.
Price is still riding strong from last week’s 8HR FVG base, and now pressing into new highs around 4,150+.
With global tension fueling safe-haven demand, this could be a continuation week — but it’s getting stretched.
Watching 4,070–4,081 for possible re-entry if we get a midweek dip.
A close below 4,100 could signal exhaustion, while staying above keeps bulls firmly in control.
⚖️ Staying patient, no chasing — letting the market show if this leg still has fuel.
— Woodz | #NOFOMO #GoldFutures #MarketStructure
DXY: Key Reversal or Dead Cat Bounce?The U.S. Dollar Index has found footing around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near 97.8, breaking a long downtrend. Its push toward the 99.35–100 range suggests a possible retest of a broken structure and alignment with the 50-day EMA. I noticed this move also aligns with short-term recovery signals.
Technical View (1D)
RSI climbing above 50 hints at renewed momentum.
MACD turning green shows early signs of follow-through.
Price is testing 100–101, a former support turned resistance.
If momentum holds, 102, 104, and 106 are the next resistance zones.
Support remains steady at 98, 97, and 95.8, which are shown as strong confluence points with Fibonacci structure.
Scenarios:
If DXY closes above 100.3, I’d expect continuation toward 102.4 or 104.2.
Failure to clear 100 followed by a drop under 98.5 could send it back toward 97.2 or even 95.8.
For now, my bias stays neutral to slightly bullish in the short term. A clean breakout above 100 would confirm a structural shift upward. None the less, I’m watching U.S. yields and upcoming CPI data closely and considering the factor that stronger inflation or a hawkish Fed tone could fuel the next DXY leg higher.
Thank you for your time and support, and as always please remember that this is always NFA and DYOFR, respectfully.
Bullish bounce off?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.77
1st Support: 98.41
1st Resistance: 100.14
Disclaimer:
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USD/CHF Technical Outlook – Building Bullish StructureThe U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) pair is showing early signs of a structural shift, trading near 0.8040 after forming a solid base around 0.7829, its recent multi-month low. Price action has transitioned from a prolonged bearish phase into a potential reversal pattern, suggesting a medium-term bullish continuation.
The key level to watch is 0.8100 — a breakout above this zone could confirm bullish intent, opening the way toward the 0.8300–0.8400 supply range, which previously acted as a major distribution area. If momentum sustains, an extended move toward 0.8720 remains on the table.
A healthy pullback into 0.8000–0.7950 may serve as a retest opportunity for traders looking to join the trend, while a drop back below 0.7820 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
📌 Summary:
Bias: Bullish above 0.8000
Targets: 0.8300 → 0.8400 → 0.8720
Risk: Rejection below 0.7820
This setup reflects a potential institutional accumulation phase, as USD strength re-emerges across safe-haven pairs. Keep an eye on DXY correlation and SNB policy tone for confluence before major breakouts.






















