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DXY Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! DXY Price is expected to retest the horizontal supply area early next week as liquidity builds up below Friday’s close. Smart Money may engineer a short-term rally into this zone before resuming the bearish move toward 98.38. ------------------- Stop Loss: 98.71 Take Profit: 98.38 Entry: 98.58 Time Frame: 3H ------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:DXYShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
DXY Will Go Higher! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 98.541. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 99.742. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar index - Macro Bearish divergenceA lot of information in the above 6-month chart of the dollar index, could discuss for hours.. some highlights: 1) The bearish divergence currently printing shall confirm by July 2023 should 100 level collapse. It is the only time in history a bearish divergence of this strength has printed on the 6-month chart. 2) IF it confirms, the index will target the lower side of the channel around 60-70 level. 3) Notice the trend of the index, lower highs lower lows. It is remarkable how many are bullish on the dollar, in the macro sense. 4) Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ made considerable gains in the 10-year period that followed a rejection from the upper side of the channel. Many ‘experts’ now talk about the coming lost decade. Gold is the only option, they say. Is that what you see in this chart?! Not what I’m seeing.. Will return in July to see how this candle prints, however with 1.3 months to go it is not looking good for the dollar. Ww
INDEX:DXYShort
by without_worries
18
DXY UpdateDXY — The Volume Cap: Where Momentum Meets Memory Every market has memory — and in the Dollar Index, it’s sitting right at 97.4. That’s the current Volume Cap — a zone where heavy participation once stopped price cold, leaving unfinished business behind. Price loves to revisit these caps, testing whether the imbalance still holds or finally gives way. ⚙️ Context (4H | Friday Recap) Friday delivered heavy volume and clean directional flow — a textbook session. DXY continues to rotate within the 97.048–99.198 range, holding a short-term bullish tone inside a larger consolidation. 📊 Technical Map • Structure: Long-term bearish range inside a broader consolidation phase. • Momentum: Still bullish, but showing early fatigue. • Volume Cap: The 97.4 level remains unfilled, acting like a magnet for potential retests — the true battleground between continuation and correction. 🌐 Fundamental Pulse After a month of running hot, the dollar finally cooled. Retail Sales and Industrial Production softened, yields eased, and traders started whispering “rate cuts” again. The Fed’s cautious tone keeps volatility contained ahead of next week’s Core PCE inflation data. 🧭 Trade Plan (If/Then) If DXY runs through 97.4, watch for a bearish Volume Cap flip — potential downside toward nearby support. If Monday’s price action drives higher, expect bullish momentum rotation back toward the 97.0 retest region.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
Gold Near 4,280 as US–China Tensions Fuel Flight to Safety!Hey Traders, In today’s session, we’re monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around the 4,280 zone. Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with price currently correcting toward a key structural support area where buyers may look to re-enter. From a fundamental standpoint, rising US–China geopolitical tensions have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Market sentiment is tilting defensive, and Gold — already hovering near all-time highs — continues to reflect that global risk aversion. A sustained bid above 4,280 could reinforce bullish momentum and potentially open the path toward new highs if uncertainty persists. Key level: 4,280 (support / trend confluence) Bias: Bullish while above this level Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
8
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EUR/USD is currently trading below a key resistance zone and has already pulled back to the broken ascending trendline. The price action suggests weakening bullish momentum, indicating a possible continuation to the downside. After some short-term consolidation in this zone, the pair is expected to resume its decline toward the highlighted support area. As long as the price remains below the resistance zone, the short-term outlook stays bearish. However, a daily close above the resistance would invalidate this bearish scenario. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Short
by HAMED_AZ
12
Gold's Historic Rally: Why It HappenedGold approaches $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Up more than 50% in less than a year. Everyone's asking the same question: Is this a historic breakout, or the setup for a massive crash? The answer requires looking at three things: what brought us here, where we are technically, and what could go wrong. PART 1: THE MACRO STORY Gold doesn't just rally because people are "scared." It rallies because of structural shifts in how the world's largest institutions view money, risk, and trust. Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Pace Here's a number that should get your attention: Central banks bought 1,045 tons of gold in 2024. That's the second-highest annual total on record. In 2025, the buying hasn't slowed down. Poland alone has accumulated 67 tons year-to-date. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and others are following suit. But here's what's really happening: This isn't about inflation hedging. If it were, Western central banks (US, Europe) would be buying too. They're not. Instead, emerging market central banks are diversifying away from the dollar. Why? Because they watched what happened in 2022 when the US froze Russian reserves. When you hold dollar-denominated assets, they can be weaponized. Gold can't be sanctioned. Gold can't be frozen. Central banks don't panic sell on a 5% dip. When they buy, they hold. This creates a structural price floor. Every pullback gets accumulated. What this means: Central bank buying is the foundation of this rally, not a temporary catalyst. The Federal Reserve is Cutting Interest Rates According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a level of certainty that the Fed would cut rates in October 2025, with markets pricing in another cut in December this year. When interest rates fall, something important happens to gold: its "opportunity cost" decreases. Here's the simple version: Gold pays no interest. So when bonds also pay almost nothing (after inflation), holding gold looks pretty reasonable. But when real yields are high, bonds look better and gold looks worse. Right now, the market is pricing in lower real yields ahead. That's bullish for gold. If the Fed doesn't cut as much as the market expects, that changes everything. What this means: Rate cuts fuel the rally. Geopolitical Instability & Currency Debasement Global tensions remain elevated: Middle East instability, US-China friction, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. But that's not the real driver here. The real driver is the loss of faith in government money. Gold is at an all-time high, not just in US dollars. It's also hitting all-time highs in euros, yen, and yuan. This isn't a dollar story. This is a global reassessment of what "money" actually means. Meanwhile, the US national debt is over $35 trillion. Debt-to-GDP is at World War II levels. Other countries (Japan, Europe) are in similar situations, printing money and running massive deficits. When governments print excessively, investors need a hedge. Gold can't be printed. What this means: As long as deficits remain high and geopolitical chaos persists, gold has structural demand that goes beyond cycles. The Bottom Line Three powerful forces are all pushing in the same direction: Central banks structurally accumulating gold (de-dollarization) The Fed cutting rates (lower real yields = gold support) Global monetary instability (currency debasement = safe-haven bid) This combination hasn't existed in most traders' lifetimes. That's why this rally feels different. And why it's lasted this long.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JinDao_Tai
Stop!Loss|Market View: BTCUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the BTCUSD ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 107,294.21 💰TP: 99,296.41 ⛔️SL: 113,888.88 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Given the technical accumulation of the price near the lower border of the accumulation area 110,500 - 121,810, as well as a decline in open interest in the BTC futures market (medium- to long-term picture), a breakout of the lower border of the indicated accumulation area is expected. The key target is near 100,000, with a further decline to 90,000 expected. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by StopLoss222
Gold Still Running Hot — No Real Pullback YetPrice exploded out of the 15m FVG during Thursday’s Asian session and hasn’t looked back. Took a long right off that 8PM impulsive candle, scaling in as we broke back above the Previous Daily High. Now we’re holding steady above 4345 — the midpoint of the Asian range looks like short-term support. If bulls defend this level, we could see continuation toward 4380–4400. Friday bias: Bullish, unless 4340 gives out. No clean pullback = no reason to force entries. Let the market prove it. #GoldFutures #MGC #ICTConcepts #NOFOMO #DayTrading
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview • Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected. • Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward. • This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion. 📆 Weekly Chart Insights • Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure. • Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent. • This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation. 📅 Daily Chart Momentum • Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. • Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias. 💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data • USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength. • CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data. • This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias. 📊 Seasonal Trends • Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months. • This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup. 🏦 Macro Considerations • Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction. 🔍 Summary USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
Long
by Wiiso
US Dollar: Bullish! The Pullback To Support Is An Opportunity!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct 13 - 17th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar The USD was bullish all of last week, except for Friday. Pres. Trump announced China tariffs and the market dumped. For me, this is a market knee jerk reaction, and temporary in nature. I am looking for the DXY to continue higher this coming week, rendering last Friday's candle as only a pullback to support. There is an opportunity here for buyers, in my opinion. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
3
Will DXY Sustain The Pressure Amid Current Uncertainties?Fundamental approach: - The US dollar retreated this week, pressured by expectations of continued Fed easing and signs of emerging economic weakness. - The Fed's latest Beige Book revealed that economic activity remained flat, with increasing layoffs across districts, and middle- to lower-income households reducing their spending, reinforcing dovish expectations. Chair Powell's scheduled remarks and the ongoing government shutdown, which began on 1 Oct, have delayed critical data. The Sep NFP was not released, and the Sep CPI is rescheduled for Fri, 24 Oct, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's outlook. - Meanwhile, the euro gained ground as European currencies strengthened against the greenback, with the dollar down around 10% YTD.​ - The dollar may face continued downside pressure as markets await the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is widely anticipated. However, delayed economic data releases could inject volatility into near-term trading.​ Technical approach: - DXY is trading within the ascending channel and retesting the support at 98.60. The index is slightly above both EMAs, indicating the upward momentum persists. - If DXY remains above the key support at 98.60, confluence with the ascending channel's lower bound, the index may rise to retest the psychological resistance at 100.00. - On the contrary, breaking below the support and both EMAs may prompt the DXY to retest the following support at 97.15. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
1
Stop!Loss|Market View: AUDUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the AUDUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 0.64749 💰TP: 0.63731 ⛔️SL: 0.65492 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: OANDA:AUDUSD and OANDA:NZDUSD are currently the most likely currency pairs to fall amid the likely continued strengthening of the USD. By the end of the year or early next year, an updating of the 2025 lows is expected. The short-term picture also suggests a likely context for selling. Accumulation below the POC level and support from the uptrend channel will likely lead to a decline toward the 0.63000 - 0.64000 area. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Short
by StopLoss222
DXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount ZoneDXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount Zone: bounce or breakdown? Context (4H | Pre-London | 16 Oct) Dollar Index is testing a 50% Fibonacci discount zone after an overnight -2 deviation. Volume remains light, but buyers stepped in near the 98.2 region, defending short-term structure. Big picture still leans bearish Technical Map • Structure: Consolidation within broader bearish context — 4H recovery attempts forming. • Key Level: 98.2 acting as short-term decision point; deviation off 50% Fib zone. • Momentum: −2 deviation within 4H range — early shift toward mean reversion. • Volume: Heavy order flow support beneath 98.0; thin liquidity overhead until 98.6. Structure overall remains bearish, but short-term momentum favors a corrective bid from the Fibonacci discount zone. Fundamental Pulse The Fed minutes gave us a small dip in yields, but the Dollar didn’t flinch — it’s still holding firm. Sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious, reinforcing that “higher-for-longer” tone. Now all eyes turn to today’s CPI at 15:30 EET — the real test for rate expectations. For now, rates steady, risk tone calm, traders waiting for direction. Plan (If/Then) If DXY pushes above 98.6, expect momentum toward the 99.0 zone. Break below 98.05 reopens path toward 97.6–97.4 support band. R:R potential ≈ 1 : 3 — solid setup if volatility expands post-CPI. Stay patient and scale small before the CPI lands. Mindset Pulse Observation beats anticipation. Let price confirm your story, not the other way around. Stay aligned with structure; one mouse click can cost a narrative.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
Dollar Index Big Map: Trend Is Your Friend This year, the dollar has been in the red all the way down — until it hit the strong support line of a multi-decade uptrend (white). From there, it bounced to the upside. So, what’s next? I’d like to share with you a big map of the Dollar Index. I assume that we are still within the large second leg ((Y)) of the ((WXY)) corrective structure (white). Within this structure, we can see a smaller-degree (WXY) correction (blue). Currently, the market is moving in the last leg C of the final upward move in blue wave (Y). Many times, I’ve observed how beautifully these wave structures align with strong pivot points. The ultimate target for wave ((Y)) is near the top of wave ((W)), around 121. This level also matches the target where blue wave (Y) equals blue wave (X) — an amazing correlation! There are two key confirmation levels marked on the map: Bullish confirmation — above 110 (this would invalidate the bearish scenario). Bearish confirmation — below 89 (this would invalidate the ((WXY)) structure).
TVC:DXYLong
by aibek
Asian Session Prep | Price Holding Above Yesterday’s HighNew day, new opportunity — and the bulls are still in control. Price broke above yesterday’s high before the Asian killzone, showing strong intent early. Now, as we move into the session, it looks like we’re setting up for a continuation — using the previous Daily High (4234.7) as intraday support. I’ll be watching for a clean reaction around that level during the next impulsive hour. As long as price continues respecting that structure, I’ll maintain a bullish bias. 💡 Key Notes: Setup: Killzone Continuation Bias: Bullish Key Level: 4234.7 (Previous Daily High → Support) Session Focus: Asian Killzone (8PM–11PM CST) Target Zones: 4250 short-term, 4280 stretch target Blind Spot: Price might retrace deeper before expansion — watch for liquidity sweeps near 4220 before continuation. #Gold #Futures #DayTrading #PriceAction #AsianSession #KillzoneTrading #NoFOMO #Discipline #ICTInspired #TraderMindset
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Bearish drop off?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support. Pivot: 98.91 1st Support: 98.43 1st Resistance: 99.43 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by IC Markets
GER40-DAX 4H – Waiting like a lion, no move till the level hits📊DAX/GERMANY40 | GER40 - 4H Analysis: Buy Setup Hello Guys, Here’s my 4-hour GER40 analysis for you. These are the exact buy levels I’ll be watching: 🔵BUY level: 23918.2 🔴 Stop level:23590.6 (or adjust based on your own margin) 🟢 TP1: 24046.1 🟢 TP2: 24260.7 🟢 TP3: 24539.6 Risk-to-reward ratio on this setup: 2.00 If GER40 reaches these levels, I’ll definitely take a buy position. Every like is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses. Thanks to everyone supporting me!
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by TraderTilki
49
US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips Today: Bearish Pressures from Fed?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down today, trading around 98.86 to 98.91, with a daily decline of approximately 0.15% to 0.21% or about 0.15 to 0.23 points. This extends a pullback from recent highs near 99.57, marking the second consecutive session of losses as the index slips below 99.00. Key pressures include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on a softening labor market, which have boosted expectations for another quarter-point rate cut this month, followed by more in December and potentially three additional reductions next year. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed critical economic data releases, adding uncertainty and weighing on sentiment. Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, such as threats of a cooking oil embargo and sanctions on related firms, are further undermining the dollar amid broader economic risks. Despite a 2.31% monthly gain, the index remains down 4.52% over the past year, with forecasts pointing to further softening toward 98.43 by quarter-end and 96.54 in 12 months. Recent market chatter reinforces a bearish tilt, with the euro and yen gaining ground on related policy shifts abroad.
TVC:DXY
by DCAChampion
GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop. ________________________________________ Executive summary • A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T). • At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t). • That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze. • Price targets (framework, not prophecy): o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow. These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below). ________________________________________ 1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen) Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”). Why it’s plausible in gold right now: • The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on. • Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end. • CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive. Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative): For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}. At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday. ________________________________________ 2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B. Gold the rotation would buy: • At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t • At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t For scale: • Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply. • ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity. • Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates. Futures-only lens (capacity check): At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI. ________________________________________ 3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there) Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks). A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020) • 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%. • Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025): o +71% → ~$6,050/oz o +101% → ~$7,100/oz Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range. B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact: • From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside. • Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts. C) Second-round effects • Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid. • FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher. Putting it together—scenario bands Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600 Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500 Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes) $5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop. ________________________________________ 4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher • Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock. • Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day. • Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze. ________________________________________ 5) Key risks / reality checks • Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays. • Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow. • Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes. ________________________________________ References (most load-bearing) • Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025). • Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t. • Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day. • ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise. • Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. ( • Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
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