$ Up - Emerging Markets Down?As you can see, there is a huge relationship between the DXY and EMM that most people do not understand.
I won't go into the macroeconomics of it all since most are just traders. All you need to know is that they work in opposite directions. Strong $ bad for merging markets and vice versa.
As you can see, the $ has popped off of support while EMM is still in a very tight, tight channel that usually collapses out of this structure.
Needless to say EEM price does not like to be above $50.
Simultaneously, EMM is hitting a key area at 17-year highs. This presents us with a wonderful risk-reward trade for a short with a well-defined stop-out.
This opportunity has only presented itself just 2 times before in 17 years!
Given the global sell-off going on at the moment, there is a very high probability this short pays off. Remember, fear causes money to run to the $, so the bounce we see in the current environment is pretty solid.
Conversely, should it fail and EEM pops while the $ breaks down from support, then you have an excellent long setup
You could ride for a while.
Remember, I am a macro investor. I don't do 2% moves and get scared out or take profits. My definition of success are big moves over time.
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DXY
Could reduced Fed rate-cut expectations keep the dollar strong?
The dollar index extended its gains as the Fed’s increasingly cautious stance on additional rate cuts strengthened sentiment.
Dallas Fed President Logan noted that without clear evidence of inflation falling or a sharp cooling in the labor market, another rate cut in December would be difficult to justify. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Hammack emphasized the need to maintain a degree of tightening to bring inflation back to target.
Meanwhile, the federal government shutdown reached its 35th day, tying the record from Trump’s first term. The CBO estimated that the shutdown has already shaved about 1% off Q4 GDP, with the impact potentially widening to 2% by the end of November if it continues.
DXY extended its uptrend, briefly testing the resistance at 100.20. Diverging bullish EMAs indicate a potential extension of bullish momentum. If DXY breaches above 100.20, the index may advance toward the following resistance at 100.50. Conversely, if DXY breaks below 100.00, the index could retreat toward the next support at 99.50.
Waiting on the Sweep – ADP Should Provide the CatalystChoppy week so far with price distributing and grinding lower. Last week’s low still hasn’t been taken, so my macro target remains the same. I’m looking for ADP tomorrow during NY session to provide the volatility needed to run liquidity and complete that sweep.
Not predicting direction on the release itself — I’ll be waiting for a liquidity grab and displacement before considering an entry. If price runs stops above today’s Asia high or drives directly into last week’s low, I’ll be watching for the post-news retrace to an FVG/structural level to participate.
Patience here — the move is close, but confirmation > anticipation.
US Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Technical Analysis ( Update)US Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Technical Analysis
Current Price: 99.77 (+0.28%)
Trend: Bullish continuation within a strong uptrend
Technical Overview
The DXY continues its bullish structure, forming a Break of Structure (BOS) above 99.60, confirming a continuation of upward momentum.
Price is trading above the 14 EMA (white) and 200 EMA (yellow), indicating strong bullish momentum and trend alignment.
The market recently tapped into a supply zone near 99.75 – 99.80, showing initial signs of short-term rejection, but the broader trend remains upward.
Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: 99.75 – 99.85 (current supply zone)
Next Resistance: 100.00 (psychological level)
Immediate Support: 99.35 (minor structure)
Major Support Zone: 98.70 – 98.30 (demand area with EMA confluence)
Indicators
Stochastic
RSI currently around 75, approaching the overbought zone, which could trigger a short-term pullback before continuation.
The momentum structure remains intact, and both moving averages are sloping upward — a bullish continuation bias remains valid unless 99.35 breaks down.
Market Context
A strong DXY typically pressures risk assets, including BTC and equities.
Combined with rising USDT Dominance, this reinforces a risk-off environment — investors are moving to safety (USD and stablecoins).
If DXY breaks above 99.80, expect further crypto weakness and possible BTC retest near 104,000 – 102,000.
Summary
Bias: Bullish
Short-Term Expectation: Minor pullback → continuation toward 100.00
Invalidation: A breakdown below 99.35 would signal a shift to neutral and potential mean reversion toward 98.70
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
Euro/Dollar remains within a downward channel, forming consistent lower highs and lows.
The pair is expected to extend its decline toward the support zone that coincides with the lower boundary of the channel.
From there, a bullish rebound could occur, targeting the marked resistance levels above.
If price breaks below the support zone and a candle closes beneath it, this scenario becomes invalid.
For a safer entry, traders may wait until the channel is broken to the upside for confirmation of a trend reversal.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Big Moves Ahead? DXY, EUR/USD & Gold at Crucial LevelsLadies and gentlemen, there was a time when forex was full of trading opportunities... to the point where most people struggled with overtrading. But these days, you need a solid watchlist to even find positions, and that's where Skeptic Lab comes in—it's a great spot for spotting good opportunities. So without further ado, let's dive into the analysis of DXY , or the dollar index.
💲 In the daily timeframe , after the drop it had, it's entered a consolidation box, and it looks like we're nearing the end of that box. The main long trigger is a break of 100.262 from a technical standpoint, but personally, after the break of 99.850, I'm already positioned on one of the USD symbols. In lower timeframes, plus the fact that breaking the ceiling of consolidations is usually not straightforward and comes with a lot of volatility, so it's better to have a pre-breakout position.
💶Let's head over to EURX in the 4H timeframe —we've had a good reaction at the 1085.9 support. Breaking it would be a great trigger if you want a EURUSD position.
Speaking of EURUSD , it's already entered a secondary bearish trend after breaking its daily trend line. If the DXY consolidation box breaks, EURUSD will officially change its HWC trend to bearish. The position I mentioned at the start of the analysis—I opened it with the break of that same daily EURUSD trend line. The key level for profit-taking will be 1.14640. I'll wait to see what reaction DXY gives—if it fakes the box break, I'll close the position; if not, I'll leave it open for now.
🪙But let's move on to gold —the commodity I'm eyeing today for opening a position. From a technical perspective, it's at a spot that gives both short and long triggers... let me explain.
In the daily timeframe, we had a strong uptrend rally that, after reaching 4377.67 , entered its secondary corrective trend. In the 4H timeframe, what's interesting is the formation of these range boxes we're seeing. So our long and short triggers are clear: break of the box ceiling = long / break of the box floor = short.
But the thing is, the targets are the same... see, opening a short here basically means going along with the secondary trend, so? Your expectations should be relative to this leg, not the weekly one... so it's better to take your targets quicker, like 3896.31 (the 0.38 fib intersection), which could be a good target. Plus, each bearish leg is weaker than the previous one, so the point I mentioned makes sense for the target.
For longs, though, you can proceed with partial profits and not close too early. Alright, that's it. Now get outta here.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D4| Y25 |
📅 Q4 | W45 | D4| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
A 30-Minute Look at USDJPY AnalysisHello friends,
I have prepared my USDJPY analysis for you.
In this analysis, I plan to open a buy position between the 154.003 and 153.831 levels, aiming for the 154.453 level.
This analysis has been carried out on the 30-minute timeframe.
Once my target is reached, I will share the updates with you here.
Friends, every single like from you is the greatest source of motivation for me to continue sharing these analyses.
I sincerely thank everyone who supports me with their appreciation.
With respect and love.
Bullish momentum set to continue?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback suport and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 99.53
1st Support: 98.55
1st Resistance: 101.46
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD Index, AUD/USD Hint at Near Term ReversalsAs outlined in last week’s video, I suspect the US dollar may have the potential to break higher as part of its wave C before momentum realigns with its dominant bearish trend. However, Monday’s shooting star candle just below 100, coupled with an overbought RSI (2), warns of a potential pullback ahead of any breakout.
Also note that AUD/USD has formed a spinning top doji near the September low, suggesting that bearish momentum is waning despite closing lower for a fourth consecutive day.
With the RBA likely to deliver a hawkish tone when they hold rates today, there’s potential for a short-term bounce in the Australian dollar. However, if I’m right in expecting an eventual bullish breakout in the US dollar index, I’ll also be watching for evidence of a swing high on AUD/USD once that anticipated bounce is delivered.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
EURUSD: Liquidity Grab @ 1.15000EURUSD has experienced a liquidity grab as price closed below the previous low and is heading towards 1.15. CRT suggest price could go lower and wick below the previous candle or even drop further.
Alongside 1.15, there is an imbalance, which price could tap into and possibly fill, both EURUSD and GBPUSD has some divergence so it will be interesting to see how it plays out
DXY Has 99 Problems, Getting Above 100 Is One!Here we have TVC:DXY on the Weekly Chart.
Now clearly outlined we can see there is a very valuable level here @ 99-100 that the USD:
- Used as Resistance from 2015 til the Bullish Breakout in April 2020
- Used as Support from 2023 til the Bearish Breakdown in April 2025
Fundamentally is a very sketchy scenario because with the Shutdown causing lack of important data needed, The Federal Reserve is making Interest Rate cuts. This weakens the Dollar because it makes it less favorable to Foreign Investing.
On the flip side, Consumers Dollars are able to stretch further allowing them to purchase more but unfortunately we still combat the inflated prices on goods. Companies have the ability to get there raw ingredients cheaper, resume hiring processes, etc.
The slow creeping rise in Inflation has the Federal Reserve in a position to want to be ready to potentially Hike Rates when the Inflation, they believe, from the Tariffs will hit but as of yet, the recent CPI numbers came out not as hot as they thought, possibly playing into the reason for making the latest cut.
Nevertheless, by the last FOMC meeting, it would seem that there is a chance that was the last cut this year that may be made, if:
- Inflation continues to rise
or
- Continued softening labor market
EUR/USD: Classic Breakout Trade - Don't Miss the Move!The 📉EURUSD pair experienced a decisive breakout and closed below a significant daily/intraday horizontal support cluster on Friday.
Following this breakout, the pair started to consolidate on an hourly timeframe, on the previously breached structure.
The bearish violation of this consolidation serves as a strong bearish confirmation.
Conversely, the price is projected to continue its downward trajectory, with a likely target of at least 1.1500.
Dollar Index (DXY): Confirmed BoS
Dollar Index keeps following our plan.
The market closed on Friday, breaking a previous local high
and setting a new higher high higher close with a confirmed BoS.
We can expect more growth and a highly probable test of 100.0 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY Analysis — Bulls at 100: Continuation or Correction?In my latest DXY analyses, I mentioned that the index could reverse and push higher, with the 100 figure acting as a key zone to watch for bulls.
Indeed, on Friday the index climbed right into this area and is now showing signs of minor consolidation.
The key question now:
👉 Will the DXY manage to continue above this critical level, or is it time for a pause?
In my view, a correction is looming for the index. Even if we see a short-term spike above 100, I expect it to be unsustainable.
For the near future, DXY could remain in a range-trading environment, with 100 as resistance and 97.50 as support.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D3| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D3| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
Gold Futures (MGCZ2025) — Weekly FVG Magnet & Potential ReversalPrice has been respecting Standard Deviation levels beautifully across the H4, Daily, and Weekly timeframes. The market recently rejected the H4 FVG and is now hovering mid-range, with a Weekly Fair Value Gap left open below.
This imbalance could attract price early in the week, creating a liquidity grab and possible weekly low before Gold flips bullish again.
Key Levels:
🟤 H4 FVG rejection zone: 4,040 – 4,080
🔵 Weekly FVG target: 3,880 – 3,900
⚫ Weekly High: 4,124
⚫ Weekly Low: 3,901
Narrative:
I’m expecting price to push into the Weekly FVG discount zone early in the week — potentially aligning with high-impact financial news — and then reverse bullish for a mid-week or end-of-week rally.
Watch For:
Price displacement or BOS near the Weekly FVG
Killzone reactions (London & NY)
Volume and order flow confirmation before entering
Bias: Short-term bearish → medium-term bullish
Invalidation: Sustained trade below 3,842 (Weekly Lows & -1σ zone breach)
DXY Daily Map for 3 to 7 November 2025What this is
A clean, event aware plan for the Dollar Index for the week ahead. We start the week with DXY holding the ninety nine handle and sitting just below the round one hundred line. The location is the story. Round numbers compress behavior. If you pre mark the right shelves and then trade the reaction to data and auction tone, you can avoid most of the week’s traps while still catching the meaningful moves.
Chart setup
Use TVC:DXY on the daily and one hour. Keep the chart clean. Draw only the bands you will act on.
• 100.00 round number
• 100.15 to 100.45 first resistance band
• 100.50 to 101.00 second resistance band
• 99.50 to 99.30 first support shelf
• 98.90 to 98.60 second support shelf
• 98.20 daily defense line
Add a fifteen minute ATR for sizing. No other overlays. You do not need them.
Why this week matters
The heaviest flow sits midweek when private labor gauges, services surveys, and refunding headlines can all hit inside a tight window. On Thursday the Bank of England adds a cross current through GBP and EUR which together carry real weight inside DXY. You do not have to predict any of these. You only need to decide what you will do if price reaches your bands with momentum or with rejection.
How to read the round number
One hundred is not a signal. It is a liquidity pocket. The first touch after a period below tends to be noisy because participants with different time frames meet there. The more disciplined path is to let the first touch play out, then trade the second decision. If a fifteen minute close accepts above 100.20 and pullbacks hold, you have confirmation to work the first band. If the first test spikes and fails, the wick itself gives you a clear invalidation for a fade back toward 99.50.
Scenarios to plan for
Acceptance above the first band
Price pushes through 100.15 and holds above 100.20 on a fifteen minute close after firm services or a solid tone in rates. The plan is to buy the first clean retest of 100.20 with a stop a few ticks below the retest low. First target 100.45. Second target 100.80 to 101.00 if the tape stays orderly. Trail only after the first target prints.
Rejection at the first band
A sharp wick into 100.15 to 100.45 that fails within the first five to ten minutes after headlines is often the highest quality fade of the week. Short into the rejection with a stop above 100.55. Take partials into 99.80 and again into 99.50. If 99.50 loses on a fifteen minute close, hold a runner for 99.30.
Breakdown through support
If 99.50 to 99.30 gives way without a clear catalyst, do not chase the first break. Wait for a back test that fails. Then target 98.90 to 98.60 with small size. This environment rewards patience because air pockets near round numbers can retrace quickly.
Cross current from the Bank of England
If the press conference lifts GBP and EUR, DXY can slide even if U.S. data is mixed. In that case the plan is simple. Respect your support shelves. Do not fight a broad based dollar selloff at support unless the curve turns back in your favor.
Execution checklist
• Price touches a band on a headline.
• Wait five full minutes.
• Decide between confirmation or rejection.
• If confirmation, demand a fifteen minute close through the band and a clean retest.
• If rejection, let the wick print and use the wick high or low as your invalidation.
• Take partials one band at a time rather than the exact level.
• If you are still in a trade into the U.S. close on Friday, flatten first and protect your weekend.
Risk and position sizing
Keep risk small until the midweek cluster passes. Use a volatility stop based on the current fifteen minute ATR. Tie your size to that stop so that one loss equals a fixed fraction of account risk. Set a max loss for the day and for the week. If either is hit you are done. That is a rule, not a suggestion.
What can go wrong
• A surprise release at an unexpected time can push the index through a band before you have a signal. If you missed it, you missed it. Do nothing.
• A sloppy Treasury headline can move rates while equities rally. That mixture can confuse the dollar for an hour. Size down and let the tape choose a side.
• The Bank of England tone can reverse a move you liked. During the press conference keep positions smaller and stops wider or stand aside.
Three simple rules for the week
• Trade reaction, never the headline itself.
• Confirm with a fifteen minute close before betting on a break.
• Take partials into the next band every single time.
Disclaimer
Education and analytics only. This is not investment advice.
Potential bullish rise?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.5
1st Support: 96.40
1st Resistance: 10.80
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.






















