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Economic Cycles

The Hard Truth About Trading: Too Much Knowledge is Hurting you A real breakdown for traders who actually want clarity, not confusion. Most traders don’t fail because they’re “missing a secret concept.” They fail because they’re drowning in information that doesn’t matter. The truth is simple: The more clutter you add, the less you can see. The less you can see, the slower you think. The slower you think, the more you hesitate. Hesitation kills traders. Let’s strip the ego out and get direct: ⸻ 📍 1. The Market Only Runs on a Few Core Realities Everything you see on the chart — every candle, every sweep, every displacement — connects back to a small handful of factors: • External structure (macro swing flow) • Internal structure (micro order flow) • Premium/discount pricing • Inducements / engineered liquidity • Order flow shifts at key levels • Narrative alignment across HTFs That’s it. No magic indicator. No super-obscure model. No 99-step “advanced SMC” blueprint. If it’s not tied to structure or liquidity within structure, it’s irrelevant noise. ⸻ 📍 2. More Knowledge ≠ More Skill Trading isn’t school. You don’t get rewarded for memorizing more concepts. Most of the “extra knowledge” traders chase only creates: • Paralysis • Over-marked charts • Conflicting signals • Emotional swings • Analysis loops • Missed moves Pros don’t hunt for more concepts — they refine fewer ones. The people who win long-term master what’s essential, not what’s trendy. ⸻ 📍 3. Liquidity Without Structure Is Useless A massive mistake in the community is labeling every high/low as “liq.” Not true. Not all sweeps are equal. Not all liquidity is engineered. Not every takeout is meaningful. The only liquidity that matters is: • IDM / engineered liquidity (purpose-driven) • Inducements that fuel the real move • Liquidity aligned with the HTF order block and narrative Everything else? Just market noise dressed up with fancy terminology. ⸻ 📍 4. A Clean Blueprint Beats a Complicated One The more experienced I became, the more I realized: Trading mastery is deletion, not addition. When you cut away unnecessary concepts, what’s left is: • Cleaner charts • Faster decisions • Simpler narratives • Higher confidence • Fewer emotional flips • More consistency A trader with a refined system will always outperform a trader with a “complicated system.” ⸻ 📍 5. Here’s the Real Pipeline of a Professional SMC Trader If you want to win consistently, your process should be this clear: HTF trend → Premium/discount → Identify the inducement → Locate the OB → Wait for the internal structure shift → Execute with precision That’s the Smart Money engine. That’s the whole formula. Everything else is just reworded versions of the same thing. ⸻ 📍 Final Thought for Anyone Reading This If you feel overwhelmed, confused, or inconsistent… it’s not because you don’t know enough. It’s because you know too much of the wrong things. Trading becomes consistent when your blueprint becomes simple. Less noise. More clarity. More precision. More profits. Strip the chart back to what matters — and the market finally starts to make sense.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Juicemannn
30
BTC Euphoria to Fear: Is This the Start of the Bitcoin Winter?Is the Bitcoin bear market here? A deep dive Into cycles, tech risks & what comes next. Bitcoin has now dropped –36% from its all-time high in just 46 days, and naturally the big questions emerge:
Has the bear market officially begun?
How long could it last?
And what catalysts could accelerate it? Let’s break this down from cycle structure to macro-technological risks. BTC Has Turned Bearish Across All Major Timeframes Bitcoin is now trading below the yearly open at $93,576, flipping all major timeframes into bearish alignment (from the daily to the yearly). Monthly MACD Bearish Cross Incoming The monthly MACD is set to print a bearish crossover this month.
The last bullish MACD phase lasted 28 months, which has now ended → a strong macro signal. Cycle Timing: What History Says Historically, Bitcoin bottoms approximately one year after the top: 2017 → 2018: 363 days 2021 → 2022: 376 days If the current cycle repeats, the macro bottom may form around: October 2026 The previous bull market lasted 1061 days, this one 1050 days → almost identical.
This strongly supports the thesis that the cycle has already peaked. How Low Could Bitcoin Go? Macro target: 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement → $39,173 Aligning with: Half-year 21 EMA confluence Macro corrective structures Prior cycle bear market depth Historical Precedent: The 2022 Bottom Zone Back in 2022, Bitcoin spent 210 days (over 7 months) consolidating at the bottom of the bear market.
This was especially clear on the weekly timeframe, where price formed a clean multi-month accumulation range. Weekly TF: Daily TF: This is crucial context: 👉 The market gave more than half a year to load up at the bottom. No chasing, no rushing → anyone paying attention had time to scale into positions for the next cycle. The 2025 Macro Top Landed Perfectly in the 1.618–1.666 Fib Target Fib 1.618–1.666
→ $122,056 – $125,218 This area was the ideal sell zone, and Bitcoin respected it perfectly. What happened after hitting the Fib target? The market entered a 3-month distribution phase, giving plenty of time to: scale out take profit derisk rotate into stablecoins or simplified portfolios Then came the aggressive sell-off → classic macro cycle behavior. Macro Catalysts That Could Drive the Bear Market Deeper 1️⃣ Quantum Computing Acceleration A credible quantum breakthrough (or even a strong rumor) could trigger systemic fear.
Bitcoin’s ECDSA signatures are theoretically vulnerable to quantum attack models. 2️⃣ Fast-Paced AI Threats AI is accelerating: algorithmic optimization cryptographic analysis zero-day discovery hardware design The risk matrix is evolving faster than coding standards can update. 3️⃣ Regulatory Momentum Expect: stablecoin restrictions exchange tightening AML/KYC global enforcement This would accelerate risk-off behavior. Technical Confluence: Where BTC Is Now Monthly 21 EMA/SMA → 86.6K Current support test. Quarterly (3M) 21 EMA/SMA EMA: $58.5K SMA: $53.5K Strong structural support zone. Half-Year (6M) 21 EMA/SMA EMA: $39.5K SMA: $29.8K The EMA aligns perfectly with the 0.786 retracement → $39,173. Remember that the EMA/SMA levels mentioned are dynamic and will continue to shift over time as new price data comes in, so these confluence zones will gradually adjust. Additional Confluence: Potential Head & Shoulders (Bars Pattern Symmetry) A potential Head & Shoulders Pattern is forming in symmetry with the previous bull market top, as shown through the bars pattern overlay. Trading Playbook: Short the Bull Trap The most likely scenario: BTC bounces into $95K–$100K → traps late bulls → rejects → cascade lower Targets: TP1: $76K TP2: $70K Remaining: trail into $65K → $58K → $39K Final Outlook Bitcoin is now deeply aligned with a macro reversal: Perfect Fib 1.618–1.666 top Break of yearly open Cycle timing consistent Monthly MACD turning bearish Quantum + AI risk factors accelerating Structural confluence targets $70K → $40K Pattern mirroring the previous cycle top _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Short
by SiDec
5
FractalCycles at Work: Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)This chart highlights the dominant 62-period cycle currently steering short-term swings in the U.S. Dollar Index. Price has been respecting the rhythm of this cycle, with recent highs and lows forming close to the projected turning points. At the moment, DXY is trading near a potential cycle peak, and with the next downward phase approaching, the probability of a short-term pullback increases. Momentum indicators are also softening, offering further confirmation of cycle pressure beginning to turn. Takeaway: The 62-period cycle continues to provide reliable structure for timing DXY’s shorter-term movements. If the pattern persists, traders should be prepared for a potential downswing as the next cycle trough unfolds.
TVC:DXYShort
by Kenayi
This Signal Has Called Every Bitcoin Top Since 2015I hate to be this guy but history repeats and we cannot fight history if its a obvious re occurrence. Recently, Bitcoin has hit its 1,065 day timeline of the bull market. Every time we hit this timeline from bottom wick to top wick we always meet with the 20 MA then have a short lived relief rally before plummeting into a bear market. When this happens, indexes tend to have a correction/recession of some sort. As I predicted 1 month ago I was going to be bearish from this point until late 2026-early 2027. Well the 1,065 day hit and since then I haven't been wrong so far. I do expect a slight relief rally before we fully plummet but we will not be seeing any all times highs any time soon for Bitcoin (In my opinion.) If we do then you can come back and call me wrong, that's why we trade. It's to learn from our mistakes and improve them. Now would be a great time to look for a relief rally to short the top wicks before its too late and ride the wave down. Good Luck Everyone. (THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DYOR!)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by owchy
BTC Volatility Is Spiking — And 5/7 Times That Meant a Market DrBitcoin volatility ( DERIBIT:DVOL ) is rising sharply again — and historically, that’s rarely a neutral signal. When we look back at recent market behavior, the pattern is clear: 🔹 5 of the last 7 volatility spikes happened during corrections Each major volatility surge aligned with: aggressive liquidations, forced unwinding of leverage, or the start of a broader market pullback. Not every spike triggers a crash… but most crashes start with a volatility spike. 🔹 Why this matters now Volatility is picking up while price momentum weakens — the same dynamic that preceded previous drawdowns. This usually reflects: stressed long positions, risk being repriced in options, and rising uncertainty across the market. 🔹 What history suggests When volatility returns aggressively, Bitcoin tends to enter: a sharp flush lower, or a sustained corrective phase. Given that 5 out of the last 7 spikes led to significant declines, the probability that BTC is entering another corrective leg should not be ignored.
Short
by OrbisInvestment
The Bitcoin Cycle: A guide to time the next major entryBitcoin could be approaching a cycle low in the next 3-9 months. Zooming in on the weekly chart, you'll see that price tends to develop a horizontally defined resistance *after* hitting a cycle low and consolidating. Once price breaks out from that resistance, it triggers a buy signal. This is the type of action I want to see to get long with size. On the topic of cycles, I'll use a paragraph from the first book I read that got me interested in financial markets. From CYCLES: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events How can one tell, in any given instance, whether or not a regular rhythm that one discovers is caused by a real underlying force or merely by chance? Let's begin with some common sense and simple logic. If a cycle has repeated enough times, with enough regularity and with enough strength, the chances are that it is significant. Such regularity cannot reasonably be mere accident. Bottom line: A cycle's reliability is based on how well it repeated that cycle in the past. I will assume the cycle in this post remains in play, and will use it as my guide to help time the next major entry. The key thing is to enter based on a signal rather than buy just because price is in the cycle low range. The cycle just adds to the weight of evidence and helps with timing - it is NOT the signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Lanmar
204
Wait pepe… LONG last dance 1000PEPE LONG – Accumulation on Key Support with BTC Cycle & US Tax Catalyst I’m sharing a LONG setup on PEPE. Price has returned to a strong historical demand zone (red blocks) where previous rallies started, which I see as a new accumulation phase ahead of a possible altcoin season, supported by the current Bitcoin cycle and upcoming U.S. tax news. Recent large flows linked to BlackRock look more like an institutional fake‑out than real distribution, with liquidity coming back in. I plan graduai entries in the demand zone, stop below recent lows, and targets towards the 0.0101458 USDT resistance and above. Not financial advice.
Long
by GOLDSEA_
Why This Time Is Not Different — BTC Could Still Drop >50%Bitcoin is moving into a phase where long-term cycles matter more than whatever the market narrative happens to be this week. And if you look at those cycles, one thing becomes clear: BTC has never avoided a major drop after making a new ATH. 1. The timing keeps repeating — almost to the day Every big drawdown in Bitcoin’s history has lasted almost exactly the same amount of time: Cycle 1: 371 days Cycle 2: 378 days Cycle 3: 378 days again That kind of symmetry doesn’t happen by accident. It’s a pattern driven by liquidity, leverage, miner economics and investor behavior. Right now, BINANCE:BTCUSDT is lining up with that same timing structure once more. 2. The size of corrections is falling… but still huge Past drawdowns: –83% –77% The market is more mature now — more liquidity, more derivatives depth, more institutional money — so the volatility is naturally lower. But “lower volatility” in Bitcoin still means: 👉 –50% to –70% corrections And a drop in that range would land BTC somewhere around $40k–$50k, which is consistent with the historical pattern. 3. Market maturity doesn’t erase Bitcoin’s cycles Even with ETFs, institutional flows, and a stronger market structure, BTC still reacts to: leverage resets liquidity tightening miner selling pressure sentiment washouts These things don’t disappear just because the market grows. 4. What the full cycle is pointing to If the cycle keeps rhyming with the past: Potential bottom: roughly late 2026, at the end of another ~370–380 day drawdown Next peak: around 2028 Long-term target: $120k–$150k+ The rhythm remains the same: big drop → long consolidation → explosive recovery. Takeaway This time isn’t different. Even in a more “institutional” Bitcoin, the cycles still point to a >50% reset before the next major expansion.
Short
by OrbisInvestment
15
Head and Shoulders on SPXAt the core of the current setup is a fully formed Head and Shoulders pattern, which has already broken its neckline and is now in the process of playing out its measured-move target. The left shoulder formed around 6750, the head extended to roughly 6882, and the right shoulder peaked near 6829. The neckline, positioned around 6590–6630, was decisively broken. This is crucial because a neckline break with momentum and no immediate reclaim typically confirms that a bearish trend has begun. The measured downside projection, based on subtracting the pattern height from the neckline, lands near 6350, which is also a visible structural level on the chart—adding confluence to the target. Trend structure reinforces this bearish posture. Price is trading below both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, creating a dual timeframe downtrend. The 50 EMA has curled downward, illustrating a clear loss in short-term strength, while the 200 EMA has acted as resistance rather than support—another hallmark of a shift in momentum. Attempts to rally back above the neckline have been weak and short-lived, showing that buyers lack control. Until price can reclaim the neckline and hold above it, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Volume behavior also strengthens the bearish case. Downward moves are accompanied by heavier volume, while bounce attempts show declining volume and little enthusiasm. Frequent cluster WVF signals—AE, FE, and other markers—concentrated before the breakdown. Clusters that appear before structural breaks often signal distribution. Since no capitulation spike has appeared yet, it is likely that the move is not finished. VIX is above 26, as well and curling upwards. On the lower panel, the Momentum Oscillator is oversold, but importantly, it has not produced a strong upward reversal. Historically, similar deep dips with hesitation tend to precede an additional flush lower before the next meaningful bounce. Meanwhile, the DMI (Directional Movement Index) gives a clear bearish reading. The displayed values show ADX falling from a higher level and –DI outperforming +DI. A falling ADX during a bearish configuration suggests that although the trend is bearish, the strength of acceleration is cooling slightly—often a pause before continuation. The “last DI cross 11 bars ago” informs us that this downtrend is still young; past cycles in this chart tend to run significantly longer, suggesting more room for follow-through. Altogether, the evidence points to a strong bearish bias. The breakdown from the Head and Shoulders pattern, rejection from both EMAs, confirming volume, bearish DMI, and lack of bullish divergence collectively support a continued decline toward the 6350 region. A rally could occur, but unless it recaptures the 50 EMA and the neckline, any bounce is likely to be corrective rather than trend-changing. For now, the most probable direction remains downward, with the measured move target representing a logical destination before any larger reversal attempt emerges.
SP:SPXShort
by GabrielAmadeusLau
1
Bitcoin Rangebound: Wyckoff Sets the Stage for Major Breakout!- Market Context: Bitcoin recently surged to fresh all-time highs near $126,500, but the momentum has stalled as price consolidates. Institutional flows remain strong, but volatility dropped and sentiment is cautious while traders watch for a decisive move.​ - Technical Analysis: The daily chart displays a series of adjacent Wyckoff consolidation ranges, with clear pattern repetition: each consolidation leads to a measured breakout, typically matching the height of the rectangle in the breakout’s direction. Price is currently trapped in a substantial rectangle between ~$100,000 and ~$126,000. Key support sits near $106,000–$107,000, with resistance at the upper boundary $126,000. RSI and MACD are neutral, reflecting indecision and contracted volatility, while volume decreases as price approaches key levels, typical of pre-breakout standoffs.​ - Bias: Neutral – The market is directionless until a clear breakout. Logic: With each Wyckoff consolidation, Bitcoin followed through in the breakout direction, but until the current large consolidation resolves, directional bets are speculative. A close above $126,000 signals bullish continuation; a breakdown below $100,000-106,000 suggests risk of a deeper pullback.​ - Trade Plan / Setup: - Strategy: Range trading inside the rectangle until a decisive breakout. - Entry Zones: Buy near $106,000–$107,000 support; sell at/near $126,000 resistance (intraday/swing, not investment advice). - Invalidation: Exit if price closes outside rectangle boundaries ($126,000 up, or sustained break below $100,000 down). - Targets: If bullish breakout, measured move ~+$25,000 above box; if breakdown, potential retest of $90,000 or previous range lows.​ - Summary / Conclusion: A classic Wyckoff “box” governs the BTC chart — until the current rectangular range breaks, the best edge is to trade the boundaries. Breakout traders should wait for clear confirmation and strong volume to avoid traps. Which direction comes first? The chart will tell — patience is a position.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by HEISENBERG_SayMyName
Bitcoin Analysis – November 21 | We Ride the Winner!Good morning everyone! Let’s jump straight into today’s BTC analysis. But first… a quick lesson I’ve learned recently: 📌 We don’t predict the market — we prepare for scenarios and react. Trying to guess the future only puts us behind. Our job isn’t to fight buyers or sellers… We simply wait for them to finish their battle — then ride with the winner. 🚀⚔️ With that mindset, let’s break down the main possible scenarios: 🟥 Scenario 1: Market Continues Under Sellers’ Control On the daily and 4h timeframe, the trend is clearly bearish: Lower highs & lower lows Increasing selling volume As long as the structure keeps printing lower highs/lows, the logical play is to follow sellers — waiting only for a clean trigger. We’ve recently tapped into the $85K zone, but my line is outdated (drawn months ago). I need a fresh reaction from this support area to validate it. ⏳ So I’m not shorting yet. I’m waiting for a reaction — likely sometime this weekend when global markets are quiet — and then I’ll look for a short trigger. ⚠️ Right now is NOT a short entry for me. Patience first. Trigger next. 🟩 Scenario 2: What if BTC jumps straight to $93,500? Nothing changes for me. As long as sellers dominate, I’m not opening any long on Btc. Before considering a long position, I need: At least one equal high + equal low (neutral structure) And ideally a break into higher highs and higher lows Until that happens — no longs for me. 🟦 Scenario 3: Range Formation If the market ranges inside this zone, my short may get stopped out. But honestly… that’s fine. A range often builds a strong structural base — and once the direction becomes clear, I’ll simply follow the confirmed trend. 📌 Final Note Please don’t underestimate risk management and capital preservation. These scenarios help us stay objective — but discipline is what keeps us alive in the long run. Thanks for reading my analysis! Wish you all a great and profitable day. 🚀✨
by MohammadAmin41148
We Need THIS Confirmation TODAY!BNB just swept the $862 support with a massive fakeout candle – classic smart-money trap! Exactly like the wFVG sweeps we saw before every parabolic leg in the last bullrun. Right now price is sitting at the middle of the channel ($905 zone). ONE strong daily close above $905-$920 = green light to $999+ then $1,400+ fast. If we lose $862 clean → back to $770–$800 zone (I’ll buy even harder there). My exact plan: → Long above $920 (stop $858) → First target $999 → Final target this cycle still $2,000–$2,400 Who’s with me on this move? Drop 🚀 if you’re buying the dip or longing the breakout! Shouting out the real BNB legends on TradingView one by one – respect to all of you: @CryptoCred – the king of clean levels, still calling for BNB $2k+ since $300 @TheCryptoDog – the man who rode BNB from $17 like a boss @Trader_XO – her BNB calls are pure fire, always early @CryptoNewton – technical monster, his channel analysis never lies @DonAlt – the OG who said “BNB will outrun BTC this cycle” @WiseAnalyze – volume profile god, his footprint data matches mine 100% @Alanmasters – been bullish on BNB since single digits, living legend @CryptoWolfSignal – his BNB long at $640 is aging like fine wine What do you kings and queens think – breakout today or one more shake to $800 first? 👇 🇮🇷 داداشای ایرانی: ما هیچوقت تو فیک‌اوت نمی‌فروشیم، همیشه تو ترس بقیه می‌خریم و تو طمعشون می‌فروشیم. این بار هم مثل همیشه می‌ترکونیم 💪🇮🇷🦁 Save this chart and thank me at $2,000+ #BNB #BinanceCoin #Crypto #Altseason #ToTheMoon LET’S GOOOOO 🚀🚀🚀
Long
by TradeWithMky
Every Time the Market Falls… Gold Crushes BTC. Are We Here AgainThe setup is repeating. When the S&P 500 sits at shallow drawdowns while the Gold/BTC spread spikes higher, the same thing has happened every single time: 📉 Equities correct 🥇 Gold outperforms Bitcoin 🔒 Liquidity tightens 🔍 What the chart is signalling now • The S&P 500 drawdown is compressing near 0% — historically a fragile point. • Gold/BTC is turning up sharply, just like before major volatility spikes (2018, 2020, 2022, 2025). • BTC tends to lag hard when liquidity cracks. 🧩 Why this matters A rising Gold/BTC spread = • Flight to hard collateral • Stress in risk assets • Lower risk appetite • Early warning of equity weakness This relationship hasn’t failed in almost a decade. ⚠️ If the pattern repeats… We could be looking at another risk-off rotation, with gold outperforming BTC and stocks struggling to hold highs. TVC:GOLD & AMEX:SPY & BINANCE:BTCUSDT
AMEX:SPYShort
by OrbisInvestment
NQ Local top is in, 22,000 the target lowHi All, NQ is still walking the same path it did in 2020–22. Same weekly inverted FVG near the top. Same slow fade after the high. Same bar count into the rollover. The fractal underneath isn’t a coincidence — Markets repeat patterns the same way people repeat bad decisions after saying ‘never again. The downside confluence is hard to ignore: the 0.5 Fib, the weekly imbalance, and the Value Area Low all sitting on top of each other around 22k. Three signals, one destination. Premium is done. Distribution is done. Now the market’s heading back to fair value, the same way you head back to the gym after a blowout weekend — not because it’s fun, but because that’s where the reset happens. The fractal already laid the blueprint: drift → tag fair value → reflex bounce → finish the imbalance. Nothing in the current structure says this time is different. Until that 22k zone is cleaned up, anything above it is just background noise.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Blockbullder
Bitcoin at a Historic Turning Point This weekly chart just revealed something massive — something most traders completely miss until it’s too late. Bitcoin has now dropped into one of the highest-probability demand zones of the entire macro structure: 📍 High Probability Zone: $74,420 – $88,800 Why does this zone matter? Because this exact range is where Bitcoin previously: ✔️ Formed a major Higher Low (HL) ✔️ Generated the momentum that launched the last All-Time High ($126,296) ✔️ Swept liquidity at $74,420 — a textbook macro cleanup ✔️ Created the foundation of the entire bullish cycle This isn’t just a “support level.” This is where the market made its last major decision about the direction of the bull market. ⸻ The 3 Macro Scenarios (Clear, Simple, Realistic): 1️⃣ Bearish Continuation If the current weekly candle closes below $85,980, sellers can attempt to push deeper into the zone — potentially retesting the sweep at $74,420. 2️⃣ Bullish Reversal A strong weekly reaction from inside this demand block can form the next Higher Low (HL) on the monthly structure — the exact signal that created the previous ATH. 3️⃣ Range Formation If volatility compresses here, BTC may build a macro accumulation range inside $74,420–$88,800 before choosing a direction. And the winner — buyers or sellers — is revealed ONLY after a clean break of the range, not before. ⸻ 🔍 Final Word This zone is not noise — it’s a macro decision point where market structure, liquidity, and trend all converge. Whether this becomes the beginning of a deeper correction or the birth of the next ATH… This is where the story will be written. NFA. COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Price-Action-Art
2
LTCUSDT : Full analysisHello friends well you see that the power is in the hands of the sellers and we must have sufficient approvals to buy. So you see, we have two important support areas that we have identified for you with Fibonacci, and they can be good supports. We need to see how buyers react in these areas. Well, the next point is that despite the sharp drop in Bitcoin, Litecoin did not fall much. It fell by almost half of Bitcoin. Considering the previous times I saw that when Bitcoin fell, other currencies fell several times as much, and this is a good sign (meaning that its holders have a positive view of the currency). But to buy, we need to know where and when to buy, to find the best point to buy and to take our profits at the best point. For this reason, we expect that Litecoin will most likely bottom out again and buy in support areas with risk and capital management and in steps And to move with the specified goals. *Trade safely with us*
Long
by TheHunters_Company