Get started

Economic Cycles

Why Silver Miners Are Poised for a Historic Breakout...After 14 long years of being left in the dust by the S&P 500, the silver mining sector is finally signaling that its time has come. The chart of the SIL/SPX ratio tells a powerful story, suggesting we're on the brink of a massive capital rotation. The Technical Evidence Is Clear The long-term downtrend, which has defined this ratio for well over a decade, is officially over. Following the completion of a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, the ratio has now logged a decisive monthly close above its crucial "Capital Rotation Trendline." This isn't just a minor blip; it's a major technical breakout that signals a fundamental shift in market sentiment. The Fundamental Logic Is Unstoppable For years, capital has overwhelmingly funneled into technology and the broader S&P 500. Now, as those sectors look increasingly overvalued, the money has to go somewhere. The asymmetry here is staggering: the sheer difference in market capitalization means that even a small percentage of funds rotating out of tech and into silver miners could trigger an explosive price move in the silver mining sector. Physical Silver Is Providing the Catalyst This breakout isn't happening in isolation. It's being confirmed by the price of physical silver itself, which is pushing past key resistance levels at $40 and has its sights set on $50. This move provides the perfect fuel for the miners, as higher silver prices dramatically increase their profit margins and overall value. The situation is clear: the smart money is likely already moving. The question is, are you ready to join them?
AMEX:SILLong
by dimzh
FILUSDT — WyckoffIdea / Plan Structure Higher-timeframe shows a completed Wyckoff accumulation between 2.20–2.70: SC → ST → Spring (June) → Test (Aug). Price is printing an LPS inside a contracting triangle. Bands are squeezed; volume declining into the apex. VPVR shows MP/POC ≈ 2.58–2.60; above it there’s a low-volume pocket up to ~2.85–2.90. 200D MA sits just below 3.0 and lines up with prior AR shelf. Triggers Aggressive: reclaim and hold 2.60–2.62 (MP) + break of triangle top. Conservative: daily close > 2.703 with rising volume. Add-back on a clean retest of 2.60–2.62 as support. Targets T1: 2.70 (range lid) T2: 2.86–2.90 (LVN/MA confluence) T3: 3.02–3.12 (AR shelf / supply band) T4: 3.57–3.60 (major SOS line) Stretch: if momentum persists, 4.18 then 4.82 (weekly levels / measured extension). Invalidation & Risk Primary invalidation of the Wyckoff view: daily close < 2.22 (Spring failure). Tighter trade-management levels: lose 2.49 → 2.44 (triangle base) and odds favor a revisit of 2.32–2.27; reduce risk there. If price reclaims 2.60 after a shakeout, treat it as a LPS retest. Expect stair-step behavior into 3.0–3.6 due to supply overhang; partials on the way up are prudent. Idea is invalidated on persistent closes back inside 2.20–2.32. This is a technical plan, not financial advice. Trade your system and size risk accordingly.
Long
by ICLV-426
1
Alt season trigger level 0.2 - 0.25$(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC)/CRYPTOCAP:BTC Description: I’m closely watching the (TOTAL3 – USDT – USDC) / BTC ratio as a key signal for the next altcoin season. 📊 Expectation: Once this ratio hits 0.25, I believe it could mark the beginning of strong capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins. 💡 Why it matters: When this ratio rises, it suggests liquidity is leaving stablecoins. Bitcoin dominance may weaken. Altcoins tend to outperform when this setup occurs. If the 0.25 level confirms and momentum builds, we could see the start of a strong altcoin rally. ⚠️ This is not financial advice, just my market observation.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by itiscoded
2
Weierstrass Function: Fractal Cycles🏛️ RESEARCH NOTES In financial markets, asset prices move in broken waves, seemingly random patterns because they reflect the decentralized and often conflicting decisions of countless participants. No single force dictates this behavior; it emerges from the collective actions of millions acting on different information and expectations. Constantly shifting news and uncertainty cause prices to fluctuate like a stochastic process, similar to Brownian motion. These fluctuations stem from past events, current news, and future speculation often disconnected from fundamentals - and would stabilize only if all outcomes were perfectly known in advance. Given that markets function as emergent systems in which order develops from iterative interaction cycles, I consider its raw geometry a necessary approach for advancing a more precise understanding of price dynamics as expressed in their behavior. 🇩🇪 The Weierstrass Function is a classic example of a "fractal curve", as it is continuous and is nowhere differentiable. This means it is infinitely jagged at every single point, so regardless the zoom, it never becomes smooth. Similarly, in markets, the large cycles contain medium cycles, which further scale down to nested micro-cycles. f(x) = ∑(n=0)^∞ a^n * cos(b^n * π * x) a^n → ensures higher-frequency components have smaller amplitude, keeping the series bounded. b^n → scales the frequency, creating finer oscillations that nest inside larger cycles. N (n_terms) → truncates the infinite sum to a practical number of terms. Scale_factor → maps the abstract mathematical domain to the time axis of the price chart. ❖ Shapes of Fractal Cycles With default parameters, the function reproduces the characteristic roughness it is known for. At a frequency factor of 5, nested cycles are compressed along the time axis, while the frequency and magnitude of reversals increase. The resulting structure closely resembles Elliott wave patterns. At a frequency factor of 9, composite cycles emerge at smaller scales. The steep angles cause movements to unfold as rapid but short-lived spikes. At extreme values (e.g., frequency factor >1000), cycles overlap extensively, producing dense interference patterns with significant stretching and deformation. ❗️Each added term does not “react” to price. Instead, it generates a composite waveform in which multiple cycles are naturally nested. The resulting fractal wave is topologically organized, meaning it encodes trends of different scales in one structure without any bias toward trend-following. The Weierstrass function is a generative fractal model that builds waves nested across multiple scales. It doesn’t react to market data but provides a topological view of trend structure, showing how cycles naturally scale and interlock instead of prescribing signals.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
1
AVAX (Avalanche) 1D TF, Rounded Accumulation Phase BINANCE:AVAXUSDT Avalanche activity driven by DEXs, trading bots, whale memecoin speculation 📰 AVAX is Back in the Game, with the Alt season heating up 🌡️ At the time of charting Avax was trading above trendline support at $25.34, spotting a Positive Momentum Shift –Volume Likely to Expand, Psychological Recovery, reclaiming $25+ puts AVAX back in bullish radar after prolonged weakness. Major Target: Sustained breakout projects to the measured move of the rounded base, aligning with 🎯$38.54, which is the chart’s major resistance and target➶ zone. Chart Structure & Trend Rounded Base Formation: From Aug 2025 to Sept 2025, AVAX formed a rounded bottom / cup ⊔ like structure, which often signals accumulation and a potential reversal from a bearish to a bullish phase. Higher Lows 📈 Trendline a consistent series of higher lows, confirming strength in the uptrend. Key Resistance Zone (Green 🟩 Band: ~$25.5–27.5): Price is consolidating at this supply zone where multiple rejections occurred earlier. This makes it the make-or-break level at the 5th time. 📈 Breakout Scenario Trigger: A daily close above the green resistance band would confirm breakout strength. Immediate Target: First move could extend towards the $28.50–29.00 minor resistance (red⭕ line area). 🪟Projection Break above $27.5 → fast move to $29. Sustained momentum → target $38.54 (≈ 52% upside from breakout). ⚠️Pullback / Risk Scenario If rejection occurs at the green band, A deeper correction might revisit the price could retest $24.30 area (blue🔷 pivot line). but the rounded base structure remains intact unless that level fails. “Markets don’t just price assets; they price belief, adoption, and time. For AVAX, the real question isn’t whether it can break resistance — it’s whether the ecosystem can keep compounding utility fast enough to justify the breakout. Are you watching the chart, or the chain?” Always DYOR Trade Safe, See you on the other side
Long
by Jova-A
Bitcoin enters 2-day Gaussian channel, 3 months of sideways?Bitcoin has officially entered the 2-day Gaussian Channel, a technical event that has historically coincided with prolonged sideways price action. Looking left, past instances suggest this phase can last several months, often frustrating both bulls and bears before a clear trend emerges. Key Observations Price is currently trading inside the 2D Gaussian channel. Historically, this has led to ranging/sideways price behaviour rather than immediate trend continuation. The sideways trading range can take up to 90 (red circles), meaning the end of November before a meaningful direction change in price action. Potential Scenarios Bullish Case – Price action has not yet confirmed the sideways trading period. A 2 day candle must close on or above $114k by August 31st. Bearish Case – failure to close above $114k by August 31st would confirm the sideways trading period. Furthermore it would confirm the end of the Bitcoin bull market, the technical cycle ends now in 30 days. The end of the bull market?! Unless you think this time is different, every cycle prior has ended in 526 days or less post halving, leaving the market with 30 days until the technical top. That's why whales have been gladly using retail exit liquidity those past few weeks. They have a plan, retail has influencers. Conclusion The entry into the 2-day Gaussian channel signals a likely multi month sideways market for Bitcoin. Patience will be key, traders should prepare for a rangebound environment while positioning for the eventual breakout. Ww ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by without_worries
23