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Economic Cycles

What's up with Altcoins 👀Let's look at the TOTAL3, as you can see from Fibonacci, this cycle of altcoins sold off much stronger, they did not test the 0.5 zone. Even if we take into account the growth of stablecoins, altcoins still look oversold and I would expect an exit from the 0.23 zone.↗️ 🧐Many alt-season skeptics say that #bitcoin dominance still has room to grow, here I can say that stablecoins and a larger alt-season in 2021 should be taken into account, this has not happened before. Therefore, if these factors are taken into account, the dominance of Bitcoin is now at quite high levels. This is also a possible positive for altcoins.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by FeelsStrategy
2
Grand Silver SupercycleI present the Grand Silver Supercycle. Silver has followed Elliott Wave Theory nicely through the years. The price hit a century low during The Great Depression, beginning what I believe to be the first wave of a supercycle. There is a clear five wave pattern up from this low, peaking in 1980. This is supercycle wave 1. Then, we see a five wave corrective pattern down, bottoming out in the early 90s. Alternatively, a three wave ABC pattern could be drawn. This is where supercycle wave 3 begins. Wave 3 is typically much more prominent than wave 1 in Elliott Wave Theory. For this reason, it makes sense that the next five wave pattern ending in 2011 is only the first subwave of supercycle wave 3. The second subwave corrected to the 2020 low, and we are currently on the third subwave. Within this subwave, we could either be starting a third wave (as shown in the chart) or still be on the corrective second wave. I believe the former is much more likely due to fundamentals. Price targets within the current subwave were estimated as follows: wave 3 length = 1.618 X wave 1 wave 3 target = $48 wave 4 length = 38.2% retracement of wave 3 wave 5 length = 1.618 X (wave 3 end - wave 1 start) I'm more confident on wave 3 ending near $48 than I am of wave 5 ending near $95. There is strong resistance at $50, which coincides with the Elliott target zone. Wave 5 length can vary significantly. For silver at least, fifth waves have traditionally been long ones. Fundamentals Elliott Wave Theory is only a tool. It needs to be backed up by fundamentals when forecasting on long time frames. Silver is undervalued due to many years of supply outstripping demand, creating cheap prices. That is in the early stages of changing as now demand outpaces supply. Global silver demand was expected to hit an all time high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022 (www.silverinstitute.org). This is largely due to increases in demand in both industry (Green Revolution) and personal investment (stackers hedging against inflation). Silver reserves currently stand at 530,000 metric tons (www.statista.com). The current demand is 38,000 metric tons per year. A simple calculation shows existing reserves could be depleted in 14 years. However, this calculation doesn't take into account new discoveries and recycling, which have so far kept pace with demand. Estimates of time to depletion of reserves vary wildly from a couple decades to a few centuries. At the moment, the prime driver of price (in addition to inflation) will be the deficit, not depletion of reserves. Inflation is a totally different animal that is much harder to forecast long term due to its close relationship to government and Federal Reserve policy. It is more likely that when presented the choice, our leaders choose high inflation over debt default and depression. How this all is going to play out is anyone's guess. It seems for now our leaders are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as possible. If hyperinflation hits, the silver price will reach extraordinary heights.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Cryptogold14
Waves Breakout and Buy Idea !Waves Corporation Ltd (PSX: WAVES) – Long term Technical Setup Waves has finally broken out of a multi-year accumulation zone after trading sideways since late 2022. The stock has cleared the major supply area around 10–11 PKR, turning that region into a fresh support base. From here, I expect a healthy pullback into that zone (shakeout/retest) before the next leg higher. The first major resistance sits around 17.20, and a sustained breakout above that level could open the way towards the 28–30 PKR zone over the longer term. Volume has been picking up, which suggests real money is starting to rotate in. As long as price holds above 10, the structure remains bullish. This chart is setting up for a classic accumulation → breakout → retest → markup phase. Longer term investors may want to watch closely how it behaves on the retest before positioning for the bigger move.
PSX:WAVESLong
by TradeMarketWatch
Why Silver Miners Are Poised for a Historic Breakout...After 14 long years of being left in the dust by the S&P 500, the silver mining sector is finally signaling that its time has come. The chart of the SIL/SPX ratio tells a powerful story, suggesting we're on the brink of a massive capital rotation. The Technical Evidence Is Clear The long-term downtrend, which has defined this ratio for well over a decade, is officially over. Following the completion of a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, the ratio has now logged a decisive monthly close above its crucial "Capital Rotation Trendline." This isn't just a minor blip; it's a major technical breakout that signals a fundamental shift in market sentiment. The Fundamental Logic Is Unstoppable For years, capital has overwhelmingly funneled into technology and the broader S&P 500. Now, as those sectors look increasingly overvalued, the money has to go somewhere. The asymmetry here is staggering: the sheer difference in market capitalization means that even a small percentage of funds rotating out of tech and into silver miners could trigger an explosive price move in the silver mining sector. Physical Silver Is Providing the Catalyst This breakout isn't happening in isolation. It's being confirmed by the price of physical silver itself, which is pushing past key resistance levels at $40 and has its sights set on $50. This move provides the perfect fuel for the miners, as higher silver prices dramatically increase their profit margins and overall value. The situation is clear: the smart money is likely already moving. The question is, are you ready to join them?
AMEX:SILLong
by dimzh
FILUSDT — WyckoffIdea / Plan Structure Higher-timeframe shows a completed Wyckoff accumulation between 2.20–2.70: SC → ST → Spring (June) → Test (Aug). Price is printing an LPS inside a contracting triangle. Bands are squeezed; volume declining into the apex. VPVR shows MP/POC ≈ 2.58–2.60; above it there’s a low-volume pocket up to ~2.85–2.90. 200D MA sits just below 3.0 and lines up with prior AR shelf. Triggers Aggressive: reclaim and hold 2.60–2.62 (MP) + break of triangle top. Conservative: daily close > 2.703 with rising volume. Add-back on a clean retest of 2.60–2.62 as support. Targets T1: 2.70 (range lid) T2: 2.86–2.90 (LVN/MA confluence) T3: 3.02–3.12 (AR shelf / supply band) T4: 3.57–3.60 (major SOS line) Stretch: if momentum persists, 4.18 then 4.82 (weekly levels / measured extension). Invalidation & Risk Primary invalidation of the Wyckoff view: daily close < 2.22 (Spring failure). Tighter trade-management levels: lose 2.49 → 2.44 (triangle base) and odds favor a revisit of 2.32–2.27; reduce risk there. If price reclaims 2.60 after a shakeout, treat it as a LPS retest. Expect stair-step behavior into 3.0–3.6 due to supply overhang; partials on the way up are prudent. Idea is invalidated on persistent closes back inside 2.20–2.32. This is a technical plan, not financial advice. Trade your system and size risk accordingly.
Long
by ICLV-426
1
Alt season trigger level 0.2 - 0.25$(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC)/CRYPTOCAP:BTC Description: I’m closely watching the (TOTAL3 – USDT – USDC) / BTC ratio as a key signal for the next altcoin season. 📊 Expectation: Once this ratio hits 0.25, I believe it could mark the beginning of strong capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins. 💡 Why it matters: When this ratio rises, it suggests liquidity is leaving stablecoins. Bitcoin dominance may weaken. Altcoins tend to outperform when this setup occurs. If the 0.25 level confirms and momentum builds, we could see the start of a strong altcoin rally. ⚠️ This is not financial advice, just my market observation.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by itiscoded
2
Weierstrass Function: Fractal Cycles🏛️ RESEARCH NOTES In financial markets, asset prices move in broken waves, seemingly random patterns because they reflect the decentralized and often conflicting decisions of countless participants. No single force dictates this behavior; it emerges from the collective actions of millions acting on different information and expectations. Constantly shifting news and uncertainty cause prices to fluctuate like a stochastic process, similar to Brownian motion. These fluctuations stem from past events, current news, and future speculation often disconnected from fundamentals - and would stabilize only if all outcomes were perfectly known in advance. Given that markets function as emergent systems in which order develops from iterative interaction cycles, I consider its raw geometry a necessary approach for advancing a more precise understanding of price dynamics as expressed in their behavior. 🇩🇪 The Weierstrass Function is a classic example of a "fractal curve", as it is continuous and is nowhere differentiable. This means it is infinitely jagged at every single point, so regardless the zoom, it never becomes smooth. Similarly, in markets, the large cycles contain medium cycles, which further scale down to nested micro-cycles. f(x) = ∑(n=0)^∞ a^n * cos(b^n * π * x) a^n → ensures higher-frequency components have smaller amplitude, keeping the series bounded. b^n → scales the frequency, creating finer oscillations that nest inside larger cycles. N (n_terms) → truncates the infinite sum to a practical number of terms. Scale_factor → maps the abstract mathematical domain to the time axis of the price chart. ❖ Shapes of Fractal Cycles With default parameters, the function reproduces the characteristic roughness it is known for. At a frequency factor of 5, nested cycles are compressed along the time axis, while the frequency and magnitude of reversals increase. The resulting structure closely resembles Elliott wave patterns. At a frequency factor of 9, composite cycles emerge at smaller scales. The steep angles cause movements to unfold as rapid but short-lived spikes. At extreme values (e.g., frequency factor >1000), cycles overlap extensively, producing dense interference patterns with significant stretching and deformation. ❗️Each added term does not “react” to price. Instead, it generates a composite waveform in which multiple cycles are naturally nested. The resulting fractal wave is topologically organized, meaning it encodes trends of different scales in one structure without any bias toward trend-following. The Weierstrass function is a generative fractal model that builds waves nested across multiple scales. It doesn’t react to market data but provides a topological view of trend structure, showing how cycles naturally scale and interlock instead of prescribing signals.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
1