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Professional Analysis of Boeing (BA) Stock – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, Boeing (BA) has entered a descending channel after a strong rally from the $175 lows up to around $240 highs. Bullish Scenario: The price is currently around $215, near the channel’s lower boundary. If this support holds and the stock reclaims the 50-day moving average (yellow line around $220), a rebound toward the channel’s upper boundary at $228 – $230 is likely. A confirmed breakout above the channel could open the way toward $240. Bearish Scenario: If the $215 – $210 support zone breaks, the stock could slide down to the channel floor around $200 – $198. A deeper breakdown below that may trigger further downside toward $185. Conclusion: Boeing is in a corrective channel. The $210 – $215 zone is a decisive level: Holding it = potential rebound and short-term upside. Breaking it = further weakness and extended downside risk.
NYSE:BALong
by isahebdadi
3
The Stop-Loss Dilemma: Tight vs. Loose and When to Use EachToday we talk about stop losses. Love them or hate them, but don’t forget them, especially when things get wild out there. Some traders think of them as the trading equivalent of a safety net: you hope you’ll never need it, but when you slip off the tightrope, you’re grateful it’s there to catch you. Others believe they’re like training wheels that you can ditch when you think you’ve made it. But no matter your style, every trader eventually faces the same question: tight stop or loose stop? Let’s unpack. 🎯 What a Stop Loss Really Is At its core, a stop loss is an exit plan for the bad times (or learning times if you prefer). It’s not about being right, it’s about how wrong you want to be. You set a price level that says: “If the market gets here, I don’t want to be in this trade anymore.” That’s it. The dilemma starts when you realize how wide that safety net should be. Too tight, and you’re out of trades faster than you can say “fakeout.” That usually happens when the market gets too tough, especially around big news releases. But that’s why you have the Economic Calendar . Too loose, and you risk turning a small misstep into a full-blown account drain. 📏 The Case for Tight Stops Tight stops are for the traders who believe in precision. Think scalpers, intraday traders, or anyone not willing to take overnight risk, especially in the unpredictable corners of the crypto universe . These stops are fast, efficient, and don’t have any tolerance for error. And it happens quick: if you still have your position an hour or two later, you know you’ve survived. Pros: Keeps losses small. Risk per trade is limited. Forces you to be disciplined with entries (you need good timing). Frees up capital for more setups since each trade risks a relatively small amount. Cons: Markets love to hunt tight stops. Wiggles, noise, and random candles can boot you out of a perfectly good trade. Requires near-perfect timing. Short before the upside is over and you’re out. Can lead to overtrading – you may start seeing opportunities that aren’t really there. Tight stops can work if you’re trading liquid instruments with clear technical levels. But if you’re placing them under or over every tiny wick, you’re basically donating to the market makers’ La Marzocco fund. 🏝️ The Case for Loose Stops Loose stops are the opposite vibe. They belong to swing traders, position traders, and anyone who thinks the market needs “room to breathe.” A loose stop gives your trade the flexibility to be wrong in the short term while still right in the long run. It’s fairly boring trading. You open a relatively small position, you widen the stop and you forget about it. Pros: Avoids getting stopped out by random intraday noise. Lets you capture bigger moves without micromanaging. Works well in trending markets. Cons: You lock up capital if the trade moves sideways, i.e. risk missing out on other moves. Larger stops mean smaller position sizes (unless you enjoy blowing up accounts). Can tempt you to “hope and hold” instead of cutting losers early. Loose stops demand patience and conviction. They’re not an excuse to set a stop 30% away and take a vacation. They’re strategic, placed around real levels of support/resistance, trendlines, or even moving averages. ⚖️ Finding the Balance The reality? It’s not tight vs. loose – it’s about context. Your stop should reflect: Timeframe : Scalping the S&P 500 SP:SPX ? Tight. Swing trading Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD ? Looser (notice the double “o”). Volatility : In calm markets, tighter stops work. In choppy ones (like individual stocks during earnings season ), they’ll get shredded. Strategy : Breakout traders often need loose stops (false breakouts happen). Mean-reversion traders can keep them tight. Think of it as tailoring your stop to the market’s mood. A tight stop in a trending, low-volatility stock might be perfect. That same stop in crypto? Time to say goodbye. 📉 The Asymmetric Opportunity Here’s where stop-loss talk gets spicy: risk-reward ratios . A tight stop with a big upside target creates an asymmetric bet. You risk $1 to make $5 or even $15. The problem is, you’ll get stopped out more often. A loose stop, on the other hand, lowers your win rate risk but demands patience and confidence to ride out volatility. Neither is better. It’s about whether you want more home runs with strikeouts (tight stops) or steady base hits with fewer fireworks (loose stops). 🧠 The Psychological Trap Stop losses aren’t just math, they’re psychology. Traders often tighten stops after a bruising loss, thinking they’ll “play it safe.” Then they get stopped out again and again. Others loosen stops out of fear, giving trades space, until their account looks like a shrinking balloon. The trick? Decide your stop before you enter. Not in the heat of the moment. Not after a candle fakes you out. Plan it. Write it down . Stick to it. 🚦 The Takeaway Stop losses aren’t about being tight or loose – they’re about being intentional. A good stop loss fits your strategy, your timeframe, and your psychology. It’s a line in the sand that says: “I’ll risk this much to make that much.” Next time you set a stop, are you protecting your capital or just trying to feel safe? Because the market doesn’t care about your comfort zone – it only respects discipline . 👉 Off to you : do you keep your stops tight, loose, or do you freestyle it? Let us know in the comments!
Education
by TradingView
16
How to Close a Losing Trade?Cutting losses is an art, and a losing trader is an artist. Closing a losing position is an important skill in risk management. When you are in a losing trade, you need to know when to get out and accept the loss. In theory, cutting losses and keeping your losses small is a simple concept, but in practice, it is an art. Here are ten things you need to consider when closing a losing position. 1. Don't trade without a stop-loss strategy. You must know where you will exit before you enter an order. 2. Stop-losses should be placed outside the normal range of price action at a level that could signal that your trading view is wrong. 3. Some traders set stop-losses as a percentage, such as if they are trying to make a profit of +12% on stock trades, they set a stop-loss when the stock falls -4% to create a TP/SL ratio of 3:1. 4. Other traders use time-based stop-losses, if the trade falls but never hits the stop-loss level or reaches the profit target in a set time frame, they will only exit the trade due to no trend and go look for better opportunities. 5. Many traders will exit a trade when they see the market has a spike, even if the price has not hit the stop-loss level. 6. In long-term trend trading, stop-losses must be wide enough to capture a real long-term trend without being stopped out early by noise signals. This is where long-term moving averages such as the 200-day and moving average crossover signals are used to have a wider stop-loss. It is important to have smaller position sizes on potentially more volatile trades and high risk price action. 7. You are trading to make money, not to lose money. Just holding and hoping your losing trades will come back to even so you can exit at breakeven is one of the worst plans. 8. The worst reason to sell a losing position is because of emotion or stress, a trader should always have a rational and quantitative reason to exit a losing trade. If the stop-loss is too tight, you may be shaken out and every trade will easily become a small loss. You have to give trades enough room to develop. 9. Always exit the position when the maximum allowable percentage of your trading capital is lost. Setting your maximum allowable loss percentage at 1% to 2% of your total trading capital based on your stop-loss and position size will reduce the risk of account blowouts and keep your drawdowns small. 10. The basic art of selling a losing trade is knowing the difference between normal volatility and a trend-changing price change.
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDEducation
by TradingshopUS
14
Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee & Cotton Rotation📌 The Soft Commodities Super Guide: Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee & Cotton Soft commodities — crops grown rather than mined — are among the oldest traded goods in human history. From cocoa beans once used as currency in Central America, to cotton powering textile revolutions, to sugar driving global trade and colonization, and coffee fueling productivity worldwide, these markets remain essential and volatile today. On exchanges like ICE, CME, and NYMEX, traders can access futures and ETFs to speculate, hedge, or diversify portfolios. Soft commodities are especially attractive because of their strong seasonal patterns, geographic concentration of supply, and sensitivity to weather, politics, and demand shifts. This guide will cover: Seasonality of Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee & Cotton Major Price Drivers Trading Strategies & ETFs/Stocks Yearly Rotation Playbook 🔹 1. Seasonality of Major Soft Commodities Seasonality refers to recurring, predictable patterns of price strength or weakness tied to planting, harvest, and demand cycles. 📈 Cocoa (ICE: CC Futures) Strongest: Summer (Jun–Sep) → Demand builds, weather risk in West Africa. Weakest: Winter (Dec–Feb) → Fresh harvest supply hits markets. 📌 Example: June–Sep 2020 rally (+20%) from droughts + demand recovery. 📈 Sugar (ICE: SB Futures) Best Months: Feb, Jun, Jul, Nov, Dec. Strong seasonal window: May–Jan (fuel demand + holiday consumption). Weakest: Mar–Apr (harvest pressure). 📌 Example: Nov–Dec 2020 sugar rally (+15%) as Brazil shifted cane to ethanol. 📈 Coffee (ICE: KC Futures) Strongest: Late Winter to Summer (Feb–Jul). Weakest: Fall harvest months (Sep–Oct) → new supply weighs on prices. 📌 Example: Frost in Brazil (Jul 2021) cut supply → Coffee futures spiked +60%. 📈 Cotton (ICE: CT Futures) Strongest: Winter & Spring (Nov–May) → Textile demand, planting risk. Weakest: Summer & Fall (Jun–Oct) → Harvest & oversupply pressures. 📌 Example: Nov 2020–May 2021 rally (+25%) from China demand + U.S. weather risks. 🔹 2. What Moves These Markets Most? ~ Cocoa Weather in Ivory Coast & Ghana (70% of supply). Labor disputes, political unrest, crop diseases. Global chocolate consumption, health trends. ~ Sugar Ethanol demand (linked to oil prices, Brazil cane allocation). Government subsidies & tariffs (India, EU). Brazil’s currency (BRL) & weather. ~ Coffee Brazil & Vietnam crops (60% of global production). Frosts, droughts, El Niño. Consumer demand trends (premium coffee, emerging markets). ~ Cotton U.S., India, China output (~65% global supply). China’s stockpiling/import policy. Substitute fabrics (polyester), energy prices. Apparel demand cycles. 🔹 3. Trading Strategies & Investment Vehicles Futures Cocoa (CC), Sugar (SB), Coffee (KC), Cotton (CT) traded on ICE. Provide direct, leveraged exposure. ETFs & ETNs Cocoa: NIB (iPath Cocoa ETN). Sugar: CANE (Teucrium Sugar Fund), SGG (iPath Sugar). Coffee: JO (iPath Coffee ETN). Cotton: BAL (iPath Cotton ETF). Stocks with Exposure Cocoa: Hershey (HSY), Mondelez (MDLZ). Sugar: Cosan (CZZ), ADM, Bunge (BG). Coffee: Starbucks (SBUX), Nestlé, JM Smucker (SJM – owns Folgers). Cotton: Levi’s (LEVI), VF Corp (VFC), Ralph Lauren (RL), Hanesbrands (HBI), Gildan (GIL). 🔹 4. Soft Commodities Yearly Rotation Playbook Here’s how traders can rotate positions through the year for maximum seasonal edge: 📌 Example Rotation: Start year in Sugar & Cotton (Jan–Feb). Shift into Cocoa & Coffee (Jun–Aug). Rotate back into Sugar & Cotton (Nov–Dec). 📌 Conclusion: The Soft Commodities Super Strategy Soft commodities offer traders multiple edges: ✅ Seasonality: Cocoa (summer), Sugar (winter), Coffee (spring/summer), Cotton (winter/spring). ✅ Macro Drivers: Weather, politics, energy, government policies. ✅ Cross-Market Links: Oil prices → ethanol (sugar); apparel cycles → cotton; consumer demand → cocoa/coffee. ✅ Portfolio Benefits: Diversification vs. equities & metals. The best strategy is to rotate across the year: Long Sugar & Cotton (winter/spring), Long Cocoa & Coffee (summer), Rotate out during weak harvest windows. Softs may be volatile, but for disciplined traders, they provide predictable, repeatable seasonal opportunities with both futures and equities exposure.
NYMEX:KT1!Education
by GabrielAmadeusLau
4
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin break out of range?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the specified demand range, we can buy Bitcoin with appropriate risk-reward. Bitcoin’s rise to around 121,000 and its arrival at the specified supply range will provide us with its next selling position. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the $110,000 to $117,000 range, as reduced capital inflows into ETFs combined with intensified profit-taking exert mounting pressure on its upward momentum. In this environment, the derivatives market—driven by the strong presence of futures and options contracts—plays a central role in balancing and shaping market direction. Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders, alongside losses realized by recent buyers at price peaks, has fueled selling pressure across the market. On-chain liquidity still maintains a constructive structure, but signs of gradual weakening are evident. Meanwhile, net ETF inflows and outflows have declined to around 500 BTC per day, significantly undermining demand from traditional finance (TradFi), which had previously been a key driver of rallies in March and December 2024. Following the mid-August all-time high, market momentum steadily weakened, dragging Bitcoin below the cost basis of recent buyers at the top and pushing the asset back into a range-bound structure. The critical question now is whether this reflects a healthy consolidation phase or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle. While dip-buyers provided some support, the primary selling pressure originated from experienced short-term holders. Data shows that 3–6 month holders have been realizing approximately $189 million in daily profits (based on the 14-day moving average), accounting for nearly 79% of total short-term holder realized gains. These figures indicate that many investors who entered the market during the February-to-May correction used the recent rally as an opportunity to lock in profits—creating considerable resistance against upward continuation. In addition to profit-taking from seasoned short-term holders, recent peak buyers also capitulated by realizing losses during the pullback, further amplifying selling pressure. Alongside on-chain dynamics, assessing external demand through ETFs remains crucial, as these instruments have been pivotal in driving the current market cycle. Since early August, net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have sharply declined, currently averaging around 500 BTC per day (14-day moving average). This is far below the levels of capital inflows that had previously supported the bullish phase of the cycle, reflecting weakening momentum from TradFi investors. Given the central role of ETFs in fueling Bitcoin’s recent uptrend, the slowdown in flows makes the market’s current structure noticeably more fragile. Meanwhile, blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket has announced a new collaboration with Chainlink. The partnership aims to launch 15-minute crypto prediction markets featuring rapid settlement and industry-leading security standards. The integration of Chainlink’s oracle technology with Polymarket’s trading infrastructure is expected to enhance user access to accurate and reliable data, delivering a new experience in short-term prediction markets. This collaboration could mark a turning point in the development of innovative trading instruments and price forecasting tools.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
13
Revealing The Secrets Of Pro Traders👋Hello everyone, if you’re just starting out with trading, this post is for you. Trading can be exciting, but if you’re not careful, you’ll quickly become prey. Here are 5 common mistakes beginners often make: 1. Opening Too Many Positions At Once When I first started, I thought using high leverage would help me make money quickly. But opening multiple trades at once can wipe out your account after just a small market reversal. Example: A trader uses high leverage to buy XAUUSD, but when the price drops 10%, his account gets completely “burned.” Solution: Always assess your personal conditions, calculate the profit you expect, how much loss you can handle, and set clear goals. I actually have a formula for this — if you’d like to know, just leave me a comment below. 2. Chasing Losses… And Losing Even More It’s that feeling of desperation, right? You take a big loss on your first trades, then try to win it all back in the next ones, doubling down again and again… only to lose more. I know the feeling of wanting to recover your money right away. But trying to chase losses by overtrading only makes things worse. Stop when you realize you’re acting out of emotion. Sometimes it’s better to accept a small loss and wait for a better opportunity, rather than risk blowing your account completely. That’s a hard lesson I learned from multiple wipeouts. 3. Ignoring Risk Management Tell me you’re not guilty of this one. Many beginners think stop-losses or take-profits aren’t necessary because they believe they’ll “get lucky.” But skipping risk management is exactly why accounts get wiped out. Example: A trader ignores stop-loss, and then unexpected news hits the market. The price reverses instantly, and the account vanishes “in a heartbeat.” That’s why I always remind my students: set TP and SL on every trade and keep a close eye on important market news. 4. FOMO – The Fear of Missing Out This is one of the feelings almost all of us experience when trading. Forget being an expert for a moment—when you’re new and see prices skyrocketing, with everyone around you buying, it feels like if you don’t jump in right now, you’ll miss your chance. But this impatience often leads to poor decisions. You end up buying without proper market analysis, and when losses come, you don’t even understand why—it’s simply because you were chasing the crowd. 5. The Biggest Factor – Lack of Knowledge This one overshadows all the other mistakes. Many beginners rely only on tips from others or “tricks” without understanding indicators, technical analysis, or trading strategies. Maybe you’ve thought: “I just need to follow what others do, the market will be fine.” But in the long run, if you don’t fully understand your actions, you can’t control risk and the market will eventually knock you down. At that point, you’ll be left either begging for help or starting from scratch with your learning—too late. In summary, success in trading comes down to three essentials: Managing emotions Managing risk Continuously building knowledge and practicing consistently In the coming posts, I’ll share more valuable lessons to help you overcome these challenges. You can study them, practice in a demo account, and then apply them to real trading when you’re ready. It will be incredibly useful. If today’s lesson resonated with you and you’re excited for the next posts, hit the like button🚀—I’d love your support. Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Kevinn_Nguyen
34
The Golden Run Continues: XAUUSD Eyes $3800? The Golden Run Continues: XAUUSD Eyes $3800? Prior Bullish Momentum & Consolidation : XAUUSD entered a period of consolidation following a robust bullish rally earlier in the year. This initial surge established a strong underlying demand. Symmetrical Triangle Formation : This consolidation phase manifested as a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This pattern typically represents a period of indecision, or accumulation/distribution, before a continuation of the prior trend. Decisive Bullish Breakout: Gold has now executed a powerful and decisive upward breakout from the upper trendline of this symmetrical triangle. This action confirms the prevailing bullish sentiment and signals the likely resumption of the uptrend. Key Support Level Established: The former upper trendline of the triangle, now residing around the $3500 mark, has effectively transformed into a critical immediate support level. A successful retest and hold of this level would further validate the breakout. Strong Upward Trajectory: Post-breakout, the price action has been emphatically bullish, currently exhibiting a steep ascent within the marked green channel, indicating significant buying pressure. Primary Price Target at Based on the measured move principle, often applied to symmetrical triangle breakouts (projecting the height of the pattern from the breakout point), our primary upside target for XAUUSD is 3800. This implies significant rally potential from current levels. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ManiMarkets
12
The end of Bitcoin…. begins in 40 days time @ ~$160k in Oct 2025** What the next 12 months will look like ** Let’s just start with a strong provocative title to raise the blood pressure.. “The end of Bitcoin” …. with an explosion and then a slow erosion of relevance, that’s how. Whether it withers through regulation, succumbs to its own technological limits, or is simply eclipsed by something faster, greener, and more useful, the end of Bitcoin will be a quiet fading of a once radical idea into the background hum of history over the next 12 years. Can already feel the calls for his head. Take a breath, unclinch your fits, consider the possibility for a moment. For years Bitcoin stood as a monument to a digital rebellion, a currency without borders or masters promising freedom from central banks and governments alike. Yet the freedom that was marvelled on Bitcoin’s launch was equally celebrated on its loss the day the ETF was active. A currency available to all they chanted, now controlled by the few. The irony. Diminishing returns The bitcoin Halving cycles are a great place to start on the story of “How Bitcoin ends”. Bitcoin maximalists will themselves acknowledge this technical observation, post cycle returns are not only diminishing but on the road to disappear forever. It is the reason we've seen 2010-2012 wallets unload on the market those past 2 months. They know. On the above 2 week chart it is fairly evident the momentum of each cycle is losing steam as the line of support rotates another hour of the clock face for every two cycles. The next halving cycle will complete at 3 o’clock with no measurable return from the 2025 cycle top. Consider that as the talking heads call for $1m+ by 2030. The influencers and 40 days Have you noticed influencers talk about the amazing things quarter 4 will bring? “October through December to mint millionaires!” The cringe. At the height of every market top we see the same smoke and mirrors, “New paradigm” shift mantra. Every other day a new News article on crypto, ft.com is full of them. All red flags as the market top grows closer. Although euphoria is still to return, the time until the top is deterministic. There’s never been a market top post halving (vertical blue lines) greater than 546 days (vertical orange lines). This value also includes the +/- 5 days price trades at the peak. The last two cycles (2017 and 2021) took 526 days to reach the peak. 2021 gave traders an additional 20 days to exit at the peak. Few accepted while the rest signed up for the 2 year bag holding challenge. The market top is now between September 28th to October 20th, at most 40 days away from today, if you’re reading this on September 10th, 2025. Yes, perhaps this time will be different, however there’s now 3 out of 4 cycles with less than 546 days (at max) until the cycle top, and the Bitcoin bull market is approaching that value fast. Is this time really going to be different? Influencers certainly think so. PS: Notice the monthly reduction in market peaks? 2017 = December, 2021 = November, 2025 = October! 40 days / October 20th to $160k - Seriously? Historical halving to market peaks 2012 Halving: +9,300% to $1,150 in November 2013 2016 Halving: +2,930% to $19,700 in December 2017 2020 Halving: +702% to $69,000 in November 2021 Lower limit *** 2024 Halving: +160% to $160k in October 2025 *** Upper limt *** 2024 Halving: +180% to $180k in October 2025 *** There’s a whole host of reasons or should I say confluence for this price action forecast too numerous to go into detail. However here’s a couple of standout reasons: Reason 1 Each new cycle’s return is roughly ~25–30% of the prior cycle’s return. This means the halving to peak return is compressing by a fairly consistent factor in each cycle, close to a “quartering” effect. For this reason the 2025 market top falls between $160k to $180k. It would also mean the end of Bitcoin as the next cycle peak would be a macro lower high. Consider a cycle 5 (2028 halving) with ~25% of Cycle 4’s return: 25% × 170% ≈ 40–45% return from the 2028 halving to its peak. A market correction beginning in October 2025 for a new bear market would not be over until the $40-50k area. A 40% return in cycle 5 peaks out at $70k after the 2028 halving, a macro lower high! Remember talking heads are calling for $1m and beyond 2 years later. If that becomes true, Bitcoin has entered a confirmed macro multi year bear market. A bear market just as long as the bull market from 2010. Such a bear market would not see price action arrested until around $6k in 2039! A long way from Michael Saylor’s $13 million per coin in 2045. Welcome to the Ponzi scheme. Reason 2 The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been an excellent marker for the cycle top, as were previous extensions in previous cycle tops. The market will always react to Fibonacci extensions regardless. Even if you believe Bitcoin will continue to print higher highs and 2026 is going to a very green year for price action.. you must accept price action will react strongly with those extensions, it always has. But there’s more…. the 1.618 extension for this cycle shares confluence with point number 1. Yes, the quarterly reduction in return forecast of 160% for this Halving is also the 1.618. Dazzled? You should be! There are many other studies for considering this level as the market top, which is discussed elsewhere. Conclusions If history continues to rhyme, the next 40 days may mark not only the top of this cycle, but also the start of Bitcoin’s long fade into irrelevance. A projected move to the $160k–$180k range would appear spectacular on headlines, yet within the broader arc of Bitcoin’s halving mechanics, it represents nothing more than the final gasp of exponential returns before the math itself runs out of road. Each halving cycle has delivered progressively weaker gains, compressing the dream from life-changing multiples to mere percentages. At this trajectory, the next cycle risks producing a macro lower high, the first true sign of a terminal bear market. Beyond that lies the possibility of decades-long decline, where the legend of “digital gold” becomes just another case study in market psychology and technological obsolescence. The irony is inescapable: what was once celebrated as unshackled freedom from centralised control now trades under the thumb of ETFs, influencers, and institutional flows. The rebellion has been monetised, the revolution syndicated. If October 2025 plays out as expected, we will look back not at the rise of Bitcoin to a million dollars per coin, but at its slow descent into being just another ticker on the screen, remembered more for what it symbolised than for what it ever achieved. Ww
INDEX:BTCUSD
by without_worries
87
Why Ethereum is Outperforming Bitcoin? | FX ResearchWhile Bitcoin did manage to push to a fresh record high, the broader august trend reflected cautious investor sentiment, supported by modest momentum and ongoing macro uncertainty. The narrative suggests price resilience, but without the forcefulness needed for the next wave of bullish momentum. In stark contrast, Ethereum continued with its run of outperformance—posting double-digit returns and surpassing its 2021 peak to hit fresh all-time highs. Its rally was powered by robust institutional demand, record ETF inflows, and active on-chain metrics like rising transaction volumes and reduced network fees. Favorable regulatory signals, particularly stablecoin-friendly legislation, further stoked confidence in ETH’s utility-driven narrative. This divergence has shifted the ETHBTC dynamic sharply in ETH’s favor. As Bitcoin grinded higher with subdued volatility, Ethereum’s performance underscored its emergence as the speculative bellwether, attracting capital rotating away from Bitcoin’s more mature positioning. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
BLACKBULL:ETHUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
4
Risk-Reward Ratios Explained: How to Trade Less and Earn More​​If you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably had one of those weeks where you take 15 trades, stress over every tick, barely sleep – and somehow, your P&L ends up red anyway. Meanwhile, someone in your Discord chat casually posts their “one trade of the week” that banked more than your entire month. The difference? They understand risk-reward ratios (unless they’re social-media influencers and have a course to sell). The ones that get risk-reward ratios right aren’t trading more, they’re trading less, better. And that’s what we’re diving into today: how to use risk-reward to stop overtrading, focus on higher-quality setups, and finally give your capital the respect (and break) it deserves. 💡 What Risk-Reward Really Means At its core, the risk-reward ratio (RRR) tells you how much you’re willing to lose compared to how much you aim to gain. But don’t let the simplicity fool you – mastering this concept separates the true traders from the exit liquidity. Say you’re risking $100 to make $300. That’s a 1:3 risk-reward ratio – for every $1 on the line, you’re targeting $3 in return. The beauty is, you don’t need to be right most of the time to make money. At a 1:3 ratio, you can lose six trades out of ten and still come out ahead. That flips the game from “I need to be right” to “I just need to manage risk.” But, believe it or not, most traders do the opposite. They risk $300 to make $100, cut winners too early, and widen stops when trades go south. That’s not risk management; that’s donation season. 📐 Why This Isn’t Just About Math Risk-reward ratios look clean on paper, but in real life, psychology can ruin everything. Picture this: You plan a beautiful 1:3 setup. The trade starts working, you’re up 1R, and you panic. You close early “just to lock in profits.” If you’ve been around for a while, you’ve heard the saying “You never go broke taking profits.” True. But cutting winners early might mean missing out, hitting your goals slower or not hitting them at all. Pro tip: once you’re up 1R, consider putting a stop at breakeven and let your take profit stay where you set it initially. Because there’s a flip side, too. When trades go against you, emotions tell you to give it a little more room. You move your stop. Then you move it again. Suddenly, your carefully planned 1:3 trade becomes a 3:1 loser. This is where discipline comes in. A risk-reward plan only works if you have the discipline to stick to it . Otherwise, you’re trading vibes, not setups. 🎯 The Sweet Spot for Most Traders There’s no universal “best” ratio, but for most retail traders these setups work fine: Day traders often aim for around 1:1 to 1:2 Swing traders typically prefer 1:3 to 1:4 Position traders can stretch to 1:5 or higher Why? Higher timeframes give price more space to breathe. If you’re scalping, you can’t realistically aim for a 1:5 setup unless you enjoy watching charts like they’re Netflix and crying when spreads eat your edge. But here’s where traders mess up: Instead of finding setups that naturally offer good ratios, they force them. They shrink stops to chase a flashy 1:6 RRR and end up getting wicked out by noise. Quality setups beat aggressive plays more often than not. 🚀 Asymmetric Risk-Return: The Home Run Setup Let’s talk about asymmetric bets – trades where the upside massively outweighs the downside. Think 1:10, 1:15, or even 1:20 setups. These are rare, but they’re game-changers when they hit. Imagine risking $100 with a tight stop on a breakout setup. If price pops and you catch the move early, you could ride it for $1,500 or more. That’s a 15R trade – the kind that can pay for weeks, sometimes months, of smaller losses. Here’s a recent example in FX:GBPUSD . The pair hit a double top in mid-August and immediately reversed, piercing the $1.3590 (a prior peak) by just 5 pips. Say you spotted that double-top formation and shorted with a 10-pip stop. You’d survive the rise and then enjoy a 200-pip reward. That’s 20R in the bag, provided you exited right before the trend turned. But here’s the trade-off: You’ll get stopped out more often. You need patience to let the winners actually run. You have to accept discomfort – watching price retrace without panic-selling your position. The market sharpshooters who master asymmetric setups don’t chase them every day. They stalk clean breakouts, major trend reversals, or high-conviction catalysts – and when the trade lines up, they size big, set a tight stop, and let the probabilities do the heavy lifting. It’s less about being right every time and more about letting one big win offset multiple small losses. 🧩 Making Risk-Reward Work for You Understanding ratios isn’t enough. You need a process: Start with risk first Decide how much you’re okay losing per trade – most pros cap it at 1–2% of account size. Find logical stops, not emotional ones Set stops based on structure – below support, above resistance, or at levels where your idea is simply wrong. Set realistic targets Don’t dream of 1:10 on a choppy Tuesday unless there’s a major catalyst to back it up. Let math guide position sizing Smaller stops mean larger position sizes for the same risk, but stay consistent with your capital exposure. By planning before you enter, you flip the game from guessing to executing. That’s when risk-reward stops being theory and starts being strategy. 📈 Risk-Reward in Different Market Conditions Markets change character, and your RRR should adapt too. In strong trending markets , you can aim for bigger ratios since momentum carries trades further. In range-bound conditions , scaling back to 1:1.5 or 1:2 makes sense – breakouts fail more often. During news-heavy weeks , either widen stops or stay flat if you’re risk-averse. Chasing trades when Powell’s mic is on ? Risky business. The smart traders bend their risk-reward ratios based on volatility instead of forcing the same plan everywhere. 🏖️ Trade Less, Profit More Here’s the counterintuitive truth: the fewer trades you take, the more money you’ll likely make. In other words, less is more. Focusing on high-quality setups with favorable RRRs means: Less noise Less overtrading More time for actual analysis instead of gambling You don’t need to catch every move. Stick to your RRR strategy, take care of the losses, and let profits take care of themselves. 🎯 The TradingView Edge This is where tools make life easier: Use Supercharts to visualize risk-reward zones before you enter. Once inside a chart, navigate to the left-hand toolbar and spot the icon where it says Projection . Pick Long position for long risk-reward ratio, and Short position for short risk-reward ratio. Here’s a helpful tutorial in case you need some guidance. Set alerts at key levels so you’re not glued to your screen. Scan with screeners to find setups with volatility and structure that match your target ratios. heatmaps can help, too. And finally, check out the newest product we launched, Fundamental Graphs , allowing you to compare plenty of metrics across multiple companies (we’re talking earnings, cash flows, net income, revenue, all that good stuff). 👉 The Takeaway Risk-reward ratios aren’t a thing to consider – they’re a pillar of profitable trading. You don’t need to predict the market perfectly; you need to structure your trades so that your wins pay for your losses, and then some. For most traders, the shift is simple: Stop chasing every setup. Start filtering for trades where the upside dwarfs the downside. And when you get the rare asymmetric winner, ride it like your P&L depends on it – because it does. Off to you : What’s your RRR strategy? Are you a defensive player or you’re chasing the asymmetric trades? Share your approach in the comments!
Education
by TradingView
18
Patience: Is a virtue but it's damn hard...NOTE - This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I'm taking the time here to post as an effort to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so that you are able to execute your own trading system as best you can from a place of calm, patience and confidence'. Here's a scenario: You want the trade to hurry up… but the market has no reason to move on your timeline. Here on Ethereum we see consolidation. We can imagine traders framing for a break in either direction. There will certainly be plenty trying their hand at getting ahead of the move and getting chopped. Patience is one of the hardest skills for traders to master. The market doesn’t reward impatience it punishes it. If I'm honest, when I first started out, I certainly didnt think of patience as a 'skill' - but it's certainly essential. Without it, I've either wasted a lot of 'ammunition' in trying - or missed the whole point of a trade once I was depleted of will. So offering some thoughts for you. Please take what resonates and ignore what doesn't work for you: How impatience shows up: You close trades too early because the profit feels “good enough.” You jump into setups that haven’t confirmed because you’re tired of waiting. You watch price drift sideways and feel an urge to “make something happen.” You start to entertain thoughts that undermine your confidence. You get distracted and do something else entirely risking missing the signal all together. Emotional side: Impatience often hides anxiety the need for relief, action, or certainty. Your body feels restless, your mind races with “what ifs,” and you start convincing yourself to bend your rules. This is not 'woo'. It's an actual internal angst that causes one to act / behave in a way and at a time that is against ones intention. Ironically - as much as we ignore it - it' drives our behaviour. So how can we get ahold of this to try and ensure it doesn't sabotage our intentions? Consider the following and see if it works for you. Shift your mindset See patience as an active discipline and not just something that's passive. If we practice and nurture patience with mindfulness, the stronger the muscle to holding your ground, sticking to your process and letting the probabilities play out on their own clock not yours. Practical tips .. the How ..: When you feel that urge rising: - notice where in your body you're feeling impatience. - recognise how it's showing up for you (tension, irritation, restlessness - something else) - notice what you are saying to yourself - consider and assess : when was the last time I had a drink of water, had something to eat? - do something physical to diffuse the feeling and get some energy back in the body: stretch, breathe, walk away from the screen for a moment put some music on and dance your ass off, do some burpees set an alert on your screens, phone etc Reminder yourself ... 'Waiting is a position too'. I hope this helps. Interested in hearing what you do to instill and respect your patience
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by soda8888
30
Oracle Is Up 80% Since April. What Does Its Chart Tell Us?Oracle NYSE:ORCL will release fiscal Q1 results next week at a time when the tech giant's stock has risen more than 80% from its April lows, but also given back some 15% since hitting a 52-week high in late July. Let's see what the stock's technical and fundamental analysis can tell us. Oracle's Fundamental Analysis ORCL, which will report results after the bell on Tuesday, rose nearly 120% over the less than three months between its $118.86 April 7 intraday low and its $260.87 intraday July 31 high. That included a 22% gain over two sessions that followed its fiscal Q4 2025 results' release on June 11. Those earnings beat the Street's estimates for both revenues at adjusted earnings, with year-over-year sales growth accelerating to 11.3% from 6% in the prior quarter. In fact, the results marked the first time Oracle saw double-digit percentages for sales growth since 2023. Beyond the headline results, ORCL's remaining performance obligation rose 41%, while cloud revenues (IaaS and SaaS) grew 27%. Company founder and Chairman Larry Ellison said at the time that multi-cloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Azure alone grew 115% between the company's fiscal Q3 and Q4. He added: "We expect triple-digit multi-cloud revenue growth to continue in FY26." For fiscal Q1, analysts expect Oracle to post $1.48 in adjusted earnings per share on roughly $15.1 billion of revenue. That would represent 6.5% growth from the $1.39 in adjusted EPS that ORCL reported in the same period last year, as well as about a 13.5% y/y gain from last year's $13.3 billion in revenues. The Street also projects 16% sales growth for Oracle's fiscal year as a whole, along with 19% revenue expansion in fiscal 2027. This supports just what Ellison said. However, not everyone is sold on that. Of the 33 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover ORCL, 12 have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while 10 have revised their projections lower. (Eleven made no changes.) Oracle's Technical Analysis Now let's take a look at Oracle's year-to-date chart as of Wednesday: How interesting is this? ORCL started the year with what's called an "inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern of bullish reversal with a $163 pivot, as denoted by the purple jagged line and purple field at the chart's left. The stock then rallied from there, but developed a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal from late June unto the president day. This pattern has a $229 downside pivot that appears to have just recently been triggered. (ORCL closed at $223 Thursday.) Making matters even trickier for the bulls, Oracle has just suffered what's called "baby death cross" or "swing trader's death cross," marked with a red box at the chart's right. That's when a stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by a green line) crosses below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line). That's usually considered a short- to medium-term bearish technical signal. The other indicators in the chart above are likewise sending less-than-joyous signals ahead of Oracle's earnings. For example, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is weak, although not technically oversold. Similarly, Oracle's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is getting gnarly. The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is in negative territory and has been since mid-July. Meanwhile, the stock's 12-day EMA (the black line) crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line) in early July and has never recovered. In fact, the gap between the two lines has only increased while both headed lower and now stand in negative territory. That can typically be a bearish signal. Investors should also be cognizant that Oracle's chart has an unfilled gap from early July that would need a tick as low as $176.38 to completely fill in. That would require about a 20% drop from Thursday's close. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ORCL at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NYSE:ORCL
by moomoo
6
Trading Psychology 101: Master Your Mind Before the MarketWhen people first start trading, most of their attention goes to entries, indicators, and strategies. It feels like the secret to success must be hidden in the charts. Over time, traders realize something uncomfortable: the biggest challenge isn’t the market—it’s themselves. You can learn technical analysis, understand risk management, and even copy profitable strategies. Yet, if fear, greed, or impatience take over, the outcome will be inconsistent. Research suggests that trading performance depends far more on mindset than on technical skill alone. Here are a few patterns almost every trader will recognize: Entering too quickly because of FOMO. Closing winners too early out of fear they will reverse. Holding on to losers, hoping they will turn around. Ignoring rules after a streak of good trades because of overconfidence. Each one might feel harmless in the moment, but over time they erode consistency. Imagine two traders using the exact same strategy with a 60% win rate. Trader A lets emotions dictate actions. They cut winners short, stretch losers, and end up losing money. Trader B follows rules calmly. Losses are accepted, winners are allowed to run. Over the same number of trades, this trader ends profitable. The system is identical, but psychology makes all the difference. 5. The Real Lesson Markets are unpredictable. Strategies are never perfect. What you can control is how you respond. Strong psychology allows you to execute consistently and let probabilities play out. Without it, even the best system will eventually fail. 6. Benefits of a Solid Mindset Building psychological strength in trading gives you: Patience to wait for quality setups. 1. Discipline to stick with your plan. 2. Resilience to handle losing streaks. 3. Consistency across weeks and months. 4. Mental clarity to make rational decisions under stress.
Education
by HyroTrader
29
Long bond bulls’ eye bigger breakoutThe bullish move in U.S. ultra-long bond futures anticipated last week has played out nicely, with the contract surging higher over the subsequent days, taking out a key topside hurdle comprising the 200DMA and horizontal resistance at 119’19. The move has now stalled at a downtrend from the highs set in September last year, a period when the Fed went full-bore dove on concerns the U.S. was potentially slipping into recession. Sound familiar? Zooming out, the contract is coiling within a falling wedge, a continuation pattern that points to the potential for a far larger extension of the bullish move should the price break and hold above the September 2024 downtrend. The signal from the breakout may not be as reliable as others given long bond futures have been anything but bullish in recent years, but convention suggests we could eventually revisit the September 2024 highs, implying a 30-year yield of less than 4%. 122’18 and 124’24 are minor levels to monitor on the topside before more significant tests await at 129’00, 132’00, 135’13 and the September 2024 swing high. RSI (14) and MACD point to building bullish momentum, favouring a similar directional bias that should improve the odds of the breakout sticking, should it occur. Good luck! DS
CBOT:UB1!Long
by FOREXcom
8
Downtrend in Dell?Dell Technologies has lagged the market for months, and some traders may see further downside in the maker of computer hardware. The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish gap on August 29 following quarterly results. While earnings and revenue beat estimates, investors focused on weaker margins amid higher costs and intense competition for AI servers. Second is the August 21 closing price of $127.83, where DELL stalled last week. Has old support become new resistance? Third, MACD is falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Those signals may reflect short-term bearishness. Next, the stock is back under its 50-day simple moving average and has remained below a bearish gap from November. Those points may reflect weakness in the intermediate and long term. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:DELL
by TradeStation
2
Tesla Pops on Musk’s $1 Trillion Bonus. Here’s How Insane It Is.The mother of all KPIs. Elon Musk has a new carrot dangling in front of him, and it’s not a Mars colony or a flamethrower. Tesla’s board is asking investors to approve a bonus so massive, so absurd, so galaxy-brained, that it makes past compensation packages look like pocket change. Ready? We’re talking about the potential for a $1 trillion payday if Musk manages to drag Tesla to an $8.5 trillion valuation. In ten years. That’s nearly eight times where it is today. So let’s unpack just how unhinged this deal really is, why Tesla stock popped on the news, and what it would take for Musk to collect. 🚀 The Trillion-Dollar Tease Tesla stock NASDAQ:TSLA climbed 3.6% Friday on the back of this announcement, not because anything happened then and there, but because something could happen ten years out. The board dropped the proposal in a securities filing, outlining that Musk could receive up to 423 million shares – worth over $1 trillion – if Tesla smashes through a series of market cap and operational milestones. In other words, the board is looking to lock Musk in and make sure he doesn’t get distracted by rocket launches, robot brains, or tweeting memes about NPCs at 2 a.m. 💰 What’s the Catch? The catch is that this isn’t free money. To claim the full $1 trillion, Musk has to lead Tesla into uncharted corporate territory: Boost Tesla’s market cap from $1 trillion to $8.5 trillion by 2035. That’s more than double Nvidia’s NASDAQ:NVDA current valuation ($4.2 trillion) and equal to the GDP of Japan, Germany, and the UK, combined. Deliver 12 million more EVs (as of this summer, Tesla has managed about 8 million in its entire history). Land 10 million autonomous driving subscriptions. Register and operate 1 million robotaxis (Not on the market right now). Sell 1 million AI robots (Not on the market right now). Increase adjusted earnings from $13 billion to $400 billion. That’s a 24x jump in profit. Next stop? Tesla’s earnings report ( Earnings Calendar for reference) in about a month from now. 🪄 The Board’s Spin Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm called the package “fundamental to Tesla becoming the most valuable company in history.” Translation: Elon, please. In a letter to shareholders, the board said the award “aligns extraordinary long-term shareholder value with incentives that will drive peak performance from our visionary leader.” Which is corporate-speak for: We know he’s mercurial, but this should keep him tethered for at least a decade. ⚡ The Stakes for Tesla Tesla’s stock reaction says investors are cautiously optimistic – emphasis on cautiously. Shares have been down nearly 30% since mid-December, plagued by slowing EV sales , rising competition, and Musk’s very public political feuds (including an ongoing rift with President Trump that’s cost Tesla federal EV incentives). To make matters trickier, Tesla’s brand halo isn’t as shiny as it used to be. EV rivals like BYD, Rivian, Hyundai, and Mercedes are cutting into Tesla’s dominance, while price cuts have compressed margins. Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 1.6 million vehicles this year, down from last year’s totals. On top of that, revenue continues to slide, lower by 12% in the last quarter , indicating a shrinking business. So why the big gamble? Because if this plan works, Tesla wouldn’t just catch up – it would become the undisputed king of EVs, autonomous driving, AI robotics, and energy storage. In other words, a full-blown tech empire. 💰 Musk’s 25% Solution Part of Musk’s motivation here isn’t just about the money – though a trillion-dollar payday to one person is actually insane. Musk has repeatedly said he wants at least 25% voting control over Tesla to feel “comfortable” keeping his focus there. Under the proposed plan, if Musk hits every target, his stake in Tesla would rise to 25% from his current holdings of 12%, giving him outsized influence over its future direction. That means if Tesla’s valuation is at $8.5 trillion, he’d be holding shares worth $2.12 trillion. But if he misses? He gets nothing. Zero. It’s a high-wire act for both Musk and shareholders: reward him with historic wealth if he delivers, but don’t overpay if he falls short. 🤖 Robotaxis, Humanoids, and AI Dreams A key piece of this plan hinges on Musk’s boldest vision yet: turning Tesla into an autonomous AI platform. Forget just cars – think fleets of robotaxis generating recurring subscription revenue and Optimus humanoid robots replacing repetitive labor in warehouses, factories, and maybe even households. If this strategy pays off, Tesla won’t just be an automaker – it’ll be an AI-powered infrastructure company. But right now, that future is priced into a present that still depends on selling Model Ys and Cybertrucks. 🔍 The Market’s Split Personality Wall Street’s reaction has been mixed, and here’s why: The bulls argue that Tesla has the innovation engine, the brand, and, yes, the Musk factor to make the impossible happen. They point to SpaceX’s reusable rockets and Nvidia’s AI dominance as proof that moonshots sometimes land. The bears see the trillion-dollar pay package as monopoly money that’ll never be real. Between slowing EV demand, Tesla’s underwhelming Q2 deliveries, and Musk’s penchant for side quests, they’re skeptical Tesla can hit even half of these KPIs. 🏁 The Bottom Line Tesla’s proposed Musk mega-package is nothing short of audacious. It’s an all-in bet on: Explosive growth in EVs and autonomous driving Turning Tesla into an AI + robotics powerhouse Keeping Musk’s focus locked on Tesla instead of Mars, memes, or political campaigns Is the plan bold? Absolutely. Is it risky? Without a doubt. Off to you : Do you believe Musk deserves the “One-Trillion-Dollar Man” (or $2T) title? Or is all that a desperate move to keep him around? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
27
NFP "Goldilocks" playbook? EURUSD triggers revealed!Markets are optimistic and consolidating ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with EUR/USD poised for a breakout, plus a quick technical overview of gold, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Mood : Buoyant—risk assets and equities are near weekly highs, bond yields are easing. Consensus : A "Goldilocks" NFP (not too hot, not too cold) is expected, supporting a 25bp Fed rate cut this month and possibly another by year-end. Catalysts : Recent softer labour data and dovish Fed commentary have fueled bets on a more accommodative policy stance. EUR/USD Conditional Scenarios Key Levels: Support at 1.1524, 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1625; Resistance at 1.1700, 1.1735, 1.1760, 1.1830 Scenarios : Strong NFP : Sell 1.1650–1.1670, targets 1.1600/1.1580/1.1524, stop 1.1700 Goldilocks NFP : Range trade 1.1625–1.1700, buy/sell at edges, stops 1.1580/1.1720 Weak NFP : Buy 1.1630–1.1650, targets 1.1735/1.1760/1.1830, stop 1.1600 Risk : 1–2% per trade, always use stops, watch for ECB-driven reversals This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
7
SHOP - BULLISH SCENARIO since 12 MAY 2025 SHOP - CURRENT PRICE : 145.15 SHOP is bullish as the share price is above 50-day EMA. Price action on 12 MAY 2025 is considered starting of bullish scenario because supported by several key indicators : Share price gap up Price broke out 50-day EMA Price moving above ICHIMOKU CLOUD RSI moving above 50 From 1 August (near 50-day EMA support) to 6 August, the stock recorded a strong upward rally. Following this advance, prices entered a corrective phase and retraced approximately 50% of the prior upswing. According to Dow Theory, such a retracement is considered a normal and healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend. Retracements in the range of one-third to two-thirds of the prior move are typical, with the 50% level often serving as a natural equilibrium point where buyers re-enter the market. Sustaining above the 50% retracement level would reinforce the bullish structure, while a recovery from this zone could pave the way for a retest of the recent highs. However, a decisive break below the 61.8% retracement may imply weakening momentum and a deeper corrective phase. Take note that until now the share price is still above 50-day EMA and ICHIMOKU CLOUD while RSI also moving steadily above 50 level. There is also rising support line - strengthening bullish outlook. ENTRY PRICE : 141.00 - 145.50 TARGET : 159.00 and 175.00 SUPPORT : 50-day EMA (CUTLOSS below 50-day EMA on closing basis)
NASDAQ:SHOPLong
by IMRAN_96
14
TradingView Storytellers: Share Your Videos, Inspire TradersCalling all creators, chart wizards, and video storytellers. 👋 Hey traders ! We know many of you aren’t just analyzing the markets and trading — you’re teaching, creating, and inspiring others. We see you! And now's your chance to get your content in the spotlight — share your best work with us. Top submissions will get featured front and center for the TradingView community. 👉 How to take part: 1️⃣ Share a short video (new or one you already have) that shows how you’re using your favorite TradingView features. 2️⃣ Submit it by filling out our quick questionnaire. That’s it! Your work could be shared with thousands of traders around the world, inspiring others and helping grow our community of creators. 🎁 As a little thank you, we’ll be gifting three free Premium annual plans to standout submissions. And who knows — you might even end up collaborating with us in the future. 👉 Fill out the questionnaire
SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
Bitcoin Rally Fades as Prices Nosedive. End of Bullish Cycle?Technical analysis will tell you that maybe it’s time for a pullback. But then again, this is crypto. It’s the wild west, where predictions are polite suggestions at best. Here’s what we know about where we are. 📉 Bitcoin Takes a Breather Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD started the week on a quieter note, trading mostly sideways while altcoins decided to explore the downside a little more aggressively. After hitting a record high of $124,500 in mid-August , the world’s largest cryptocurrency has pulled back roughly 13%, currently hovering between $108,000 and $110,000. That’s still a big number, but the market mood has shifted from full-blown euphoria to cautious watching. And the question on everyone’s mind? Did we just top out or is there more room to the upside? 🏛️ Politics, Tariffs, and Bitcoin’s Rally Crypto’s recent run-up didn’t happen in a vacuum. After the April dip – triggered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff announcements – Bitcoin bounced back hard. Traders quickly shrugged off the policy shock, betting that a crypto-friendly administration would eventually be good for business. And they weren’t wrong. Since late 2024, Bitcoin and co have been riding a bullish wave fueled by increased Treasury interest, ETF inflows, and a broader perception that digital assets are now mainstream. But with prices off their August highs , the question is whether the market still has the energy to keep pushing… or if gravity is about to kick in. 📐 Technical Check: Bulls, Bears, and Battle Lines Let’s talk charts. At current levels, Bitcoin is sitting right in the middle of its long-term ascending channel – a key battleground between bulls and bears. 1️⃣ Upside scenario : If Bitcoin can hold the line around current prices, the structure could accumulate to a potential breakout toward fresh highs. A sustained move above $112,000 could flip short-term momentum back in favor of the bulls. 2️⃣ Trip south scenario : If the near-term support fails, there’s potential for $98,500 as the bears' next target. It’s a previous bottom hit on June 22 . 3️⃣ Deep south scenario : $92,000 could become the next support as it would represent the fourth inflection point of the ascending channel’s lower boundary. That is, if prices continue to drift lower at the same steady pace. 4️⃣ Really deep south scenario : A steeper correction could drag Bitcoin all the way back to $75,000 – the key level last touched on April 7 (yes, it was the tariff mayhem). It’s the dip, which kicked off the current bull cycle so it’s something of a big deal. Adding to the caution, both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are now sitting above current prices, suggesting that the upward momentum has cooled – at least for now. 🔄 The Seasonal Side of Crypto Bitcoin’s price history has a rhythm, and for better or worse, crypto dances to seasonal vibes. Historically, late summer and early fall tend to bring volatility spikes – and often, corrections – as trading volumes thin out and liquidity gets patchy. The OG token isn’t the only one feeling the heat. Ether BITSTAMP:ETHUSD – which hit a record high of just under $5,000 on August 24 – has slipped roughly 11%. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; corrections can reset overheated conditions and shake out weak hands (not you, diamond hands) before another leg higher. Still, with macro uncertainty looming, traders should expect choppier price action heading into the final quarter of 2025. 📖 Technical Analysis: What to Make of It Technical analysis is built on one key assumption: history repeats itself. Traders look for continuation patterns , support and resistance levels, and indicators like moving averages to predict future price moves. But technical analysis doesn’t account for surprises (unless you go full meta and add the surprises to the natural order of events). Sudden regulatory actions, geopolitical shocks, or even a single whale unloading a massive position can blow up the cleanest technical setups. ✏️ Bottom Line The next few weeks will be key. If Bitcoin can reclaim momentum and punch above $112,000, the bulls could get back in control. But if we slide through $100,000 and lose $92,000, the conversation may shift toward deeper corrections and range trading, with a long-term bear target of $75,000. In the bigger picture, this pullback could just be part of Bitcoin’s usual rhythm: rally, correct, consolidate, repeat. Still, Bitcoin ETFs are booming and companies continue to load up on the crypto and jam it in their treasuries while the White House is working out crypto-friendly legislations. 🏎️💨 Fast fact : Bitcoin has lost 80% of its value not once or twice but four times, only to recoup the losses and come back roaring to a new all-time high. What would an 80% drop look like? Going from $124,500 to $24,000. Off to you : WAGMI? Or NGMI? Share your thoughts in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
46
Gold – Breaking Out or Faking Out to Start September?Gold has been trading in a 3250-3450 range since the middle of May, but events last week saw prices test and close right at the top of that range on Friday. The drivers impacting this push higher in Gold, which could remain in play for traders in the first week of September, were numerous. These included President Trump’s on-going challenge of Federal Reserve independence with the attempted firing of Governor Cook, Russia demanding more to achieve progress towards a ceasefire to the war in Ukraine, as well as stubborn US inflation (PCE Index last Friday) and resilient economic data at a time when the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates at their next meeting on September 17th. Early trading on Monday has now seen price strength extend, leading to a range breakout (more on this in technical update below) as traders react to news released late on Friday that a US appeals court ruled President Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal. While the ruling, released after the markets closed, left the tariffs in place ahead of a final showdown at the US Supreme Court, the uncertainty this potentially provides regarding President Trump’s approach to foreign policy has seen Gold prices touch a 4 month high of 3490 (at time of writing 0800 BST). Looking forward, this week is stacked full of risk events that could lead to an increase in Gold price volatility, including important US economic data, with the ISM Manufacturing (Tuesday) and Services (Thursday) PMI survey readings and then the all-important Non-farm payrolls release on Friday. All of which could impact the expectations of traders for a Fed rate cut later in the month. It could be a busy start to September! Technical Update: Range Breakout? Since mid-May 2025, Gold had adopted a more balanced tone, forming a sideways trading range in price activity. This range was defined by the June 16th high at 3451 and the 3246 lows recorded on May 29th and June 30th. However, as the chart above shows, the latest price strength, which has extended so far this morning, is seeing breaks above the 3451 June 16th high, reflecting possibilities of a breakout to the upside in Gold prices. The key question now is whether this breakout from the range is confirmed on a closing basis leading to possibilities of a further phase of price strength, or weakness develops over the balance of Monday’s session, to see a prices settle back under the 3451 level. . While it is impossible to predict if an upside breakout from a sideways range will be confirmed or not, a close above the resistance is required to suggest such possibilities. In the case of Gold, confirmation of this morning’s breakout would require a close above the 3451 resistance level. It should be remembered, a breakout in either direction from a sideways range, may lead to an acceleration in price movement, due to what’s called the supply and demand vacuum. Supply and demand vacuums form when traders become impatient waiting for their orders to trigger above a resistance or below a support of the on-going range. This impatience can lead them to adjust their orders, lowering sell orders to just below resistance or raising buy orders to just above support. When traders shift orders into the range, raising bids above support or lowering offers below resistance, it can reinforce the strength of those levels and prolong the range. However, this also creates price zones just above and below the range with few active orders left. If a breakout occurs, the lack of immediate liquidity can lead to a sharp price acceleration until the next cluster of buy orders (on the downside) or sell orders (on the upside) are reached. A reason for this morning’s initial acceleration higher in the price of Gold after the break above 3451, may be due to a supply vacuum above the resistance level. However, tonight’s closing level could also be an important focus for traders. While not a guarantee of further strength, a close above the 3451 resistance may be seen by traders as a positive move, potentially paving the way for further gains in Gold. A close above the 3451 resistance could signal a move toward the April 22nd all-time high at 3500. If breached, the next resistance may then be 3648, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. For downside risks to re-emerge, which could suggest this morning’s move higher may be a false break of the 3451 resistance, traders could now be focusing on 3420, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest price strength. A close below this 3420 support, if seen, could trigger further weakness, potentially to retest 3380, the deeper 61.8% retracement, even then the August 20th low at 3311. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
6
Has Bitcoin Reached It's Four-Year Cycle Top?Why Bitcoin Might Have Reached Its Four-Year Cycle Top Historical Pattern: Bitcoin's four-year cycle often peaks around halving events, influencing supply and price dynamics. MACD Signal: The primary signal indicator in the upper panel remains in a bullish position, with no bearish cross, indicating ongoing upward momentum. Wave 3 Peak: The current print high of 125,417 USD marks the crest of Cycle Degree 3, the strongest wave in an impulse sequence. Elliott Wave Count Analysis Current Position: The chart labels the all-time print high of the Cycle Degree 3 high at 125,417. Wave 4 Expectation: A corrective wave 4 decline is anticipated, but it must remain above the wave one high of 69,000 USD to uphold the Elliott Wave structure. Wave 5 Potential: If wave 4 holds above 69,000 USD, a subsequent wave 5 could drive prices far higher, completing a larger Super Cycle degree wave I. Bullish Posture and Key Levels Primary Signal Indicator: The long-term bullish posture based on the MACD remains intact, with the indicator staying bullish until a monthly close shows the fast-moving average crossing and closing below the slow-moving average. Support Level: Maintaining above 69,000 USD during any wave 4 pullback is crucial for the long-term bullish posture to persist and conform with the current wave count analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Wave-Tech
19
Fear and Loathing at the Long End?Sovereign bond rates have steadily crept higher since the pandemic, and some traders may worry about further upward pressure in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield. The first pattern on today’s weekly chart is the double bottom at roughly 3.95 percent in December 2023 and September 2024. Second, TYX bounced around 4.3 percent in December 2024 and March 2025. That pair of double bottoms at successively higher levels may suggest an uptrend is taking shape. Next, a surge happened as the Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts last year. With more easing expected next month, could markets react in a similar fashion? Finally, you have the series of higher lows since early April. Yields have simultaneously pushed against the psychologically important 5 percent level. The resulting ascending triangle is a potential upside continuation pattern. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:TYX
by TradeStation
1