Hello All,
This is a break from Crypto and about Global Emerging Markets.
I will keep this simple. Emerging Markets are beginning to show signs of stress due to an increase in the dollar, trade tariffs and rising interest rates. Thus, this fund by Ishares is at risk of long term downside. Symbol EEM
My plan is to short until August 40 puts. I expect a ...
HUF is an emerging currency, with no positive carry value -> risk-off sentiment = sell HUF
The economy is export driven, weaker HUF does not hurt the government in the short run
Monetary policy divergence got stronger
Cons:
- NBH can decide to verbally intervene in the HUF market especially because of EURHUF rate
"Mounting debt loads, trade battles, rising interest rates and stalled growth have made emerging markets more vulnerable than on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis.
~ Harvard professor Carmen Reinhart
"The current episode somewhat resembles the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, when the M S C I Emerging Markets Index for developing-nation stocks slid ...
In looking at ways to play dollar weakness, instead of currencies, Emerging Markets are one way, here, the Frontier 100 Fund may have some upside. Not sure I'm ready to take a position yet, but noticed that last week, Gold, Mexican Peso, Japanese Yen and others started to reverse even as the dollar continued to strengthen. Perhaps the dollar party will soon be over.
USD/ZAR presents a nice short, as recent gains in USD may not be sustainable. Price broke above the parallel channel, I believe the pair is overpriced. A nice Bat-Pattern indicates a good short back in the channel.
Target around 12.0000
Fundamentally, rate increase and the US 10 year treasury yield at its highest since 2014 provoked such a hike. Take the trade ...
higher dxy
real rates spread increse => pressure on gold prices?
bearish for across the board EM assets
terrible news for etf managers
china to start thinking about all the 1.3 bn usd worth of almost 0 yield US papers they hold
imf and wb funding become more important => sharing policy making decissions with the west again
....
for the sector, it means importance ...
IT WAS A NICE RUN SINCE 2016 FEB BUT....
EM assets are under a lot of pressure, given the enviroment I think this is the best chart to keep it at top of the screen.
Buy above 8.15 and ride it!
EMLC has just experienced a bullish breakout of a wedge pattern. That occurred above support (23.6% retracement of all-time high to all-time low), which lends to the bullish slant. It's also recently tested and held a rising channel bottom and had a bullish breakout in the RSI, further strengthening the bullish setup. Volume has been robust and accelerating, as ...
The 2-year lasting correction could be over soon.
Candlesticks in wave Y chart the shape of ending diagonal, which is strong reversal sign.
Wave Y is already equal to wave W as it means that the USD drop was sufficient.
The former major top at the 732 is the minimum target.
See related idea in Turkish Lira, it could be similar.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dsAY8QLV/
India is bouncing at a key market level today. Aggressive traders can get long immediately. Patient traders can watch for a signal next week. These emerging markets gap a lot and often leave traders wondering what is happening. Trend analysis and risk management makes our life a lot easier here.
US 10 YR yields just surpassed the 2.6270% level. this is a typical bullish bottom pattern and looks like a weekly closing above 2.63% will trigger more activity to the market.
I d recommend extereme caution on EM long positions...
US Generic 10 yr yields took a leap towards the reverse h&s neckline, 2.60% is the key level the watch.
if yields breach above 2.60 music stops for the long EM trades for the short term!
hedge longs especially fragile 5s ccy and bonds
Add to your long positions on GMM, Emerging Markets index, based on technical analysis. THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!
Questions, Comments, or Collaboration? ---->>>>> traderkevin101@gmai.com
Sideways movement predicted for USDCNH till the end of 2017. Nothing to see here, move on to another pair.
Fundamentals
-CNY fixing
(Higher swaps -> lesser short interest)
(Authority looking to keep yuan stable. Volatile Yuan -> Bad for economy)
-Fed Rate Decision
(Yuan least affected by fed decision -> see capital flows for direction of currency)
-Balance of ...
