I'll try to keep this idea short with plenty of detailed charts. With the pricing in of the recent events, I think we're at a pivotal point of what happens next, based on some of the upcoming events (earnings season, Bidens' tax plan etc). Here's why...
1. It's quite obvious from the chart, that the vaccine and election news gave a boost of confidence to...
The US dollar tends to trade in a ten-year cycle relative to global currencies. It outperforms for ten years, then underperforms for ten years, then outperforms, and so on. This year we seem to have ended a cycle of outperformance when the US dollar broke its ten-year trend line (orange line on the chart).
The dollar is inversely correlated to all sorts of other...
As I dig deeper, the Bitcoin picture becomes clearer. I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin is the penny stock of the world's finance. I'm comparing Bitcoin to a fund that manages a basket of EM-related assets. This is the reported breakdown as of October:
South Korea 14.78%
The weekly chart of Verde Agritech is showing an inverse head and shoulders pattern that appears to have completed. A breakout from the current level (~$0.57) will confirm the pattern. The distance from the head to the neckline is $0.43, so the target of this chart pattern is $1.00. Fundamentals are supportive in that the company is establishing itself as a...
Russian equities look really good at the end of 2020 & 2021-2025! We take into account declining dxy and rising em currencies, sector rotation and increasing demand for commodities in china, with a favorable pace of capex L-shaped recovery in the energy sector... we also expect reduction of political risks in Russia more, than in other em... the recovery of the...
Emerging markets are flashing an interesting signal here, the weekly trend is up, and strongly, but will expire its current advance by the week ending on Dec 18. If we get some kind of unexpected issue before COVID vaccines are widely available, we could get some kind of correction here perhaps. Alternatively, we get a sideways consolidation and the markets keep...
The tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Fed will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month after Mnuchin requested the FED to return the money set aside for lending programs in the US.
This implies we could see a weak US Dollar moving forward. However...
LET'S TAKE THIS ONE STEP BY STEP.
Notes. Despite changing my bearish thesis to a "3-step zig-zag" up ala S&P500, I am not as confident about it (after I detailed everything"). So let's take this one week by week. Right now, I see a shallower drop like the previous post with TSLA. So still going down, just not as much before the bounce up.
I know stimulus is coming. I know trillions of dollars are about to be printed. BUT
A Dollar Strength can hurt, Stocks, EM currencies, Crypto and commodities over all
USD/JPY has a target of 90 and 80 respectively.
Watch out! It might be time to be cautious
Please see my previous analysis linked to this update. We see SPCE has already broken the wedge ahead of schedule, indicating very bullish sentiment. Some are calling it "the only pure-play" in the future of Space. Who wouldn't want to take a ride?
Compared to US indices, AMEX:EEM looked relatively strong in recent weeks, however, it seems that market forces taking emrging markets lower as well.
After uptrend support was broken, EEM fromed head&shoulders right at 2018-2020 major resistance and yesterday we witnessed breakdown.
Good odds at least 10% correction would be witnessed from here