S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/21
As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting yesterday: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/20
While the interest rate decision of the Fed at this week's meeting is a foregone conclusion, it is the semantics of Chair Powell's presser that the markets are going to obsess over. And, for the right reasons, as any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the...
snp on daily would not want to see a break on the recent uptrendline. If it does so, likely there would be more down side.
Friday's selling removed the whole of last week's mon-thurs up move which i anticipated. Let's monitor how things play out this week
**Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/14
As of the latest trading plans we published yesterday, Wed. 09/13: "Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias".
Just like the CPI numbers yesterday, the PPI numbers and...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/13
Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Our current bearish bias for positional trading continues, with the bear case appearing a little more plausible in the coming days. It is hard to find what unexpected bullish scenarios could evolve in the near future, so bulls need to be a bit cautious with their...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/12
Our current bearish bias for positional trading continues, with the bear case appearing a little more plausible in the coming days. It is hard to find what unexpected bullish scenarios could evolve in the near future, so bulls need to be a bit cautious with their current gains. Taking some money off the table could...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/11
Our current bearish bias for positional trading notwithstanding, our intraday models point to a possible spike up today. Shorts need to be patient and not jump the gun but wait for confirmation for initiating any new shorts.
Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/08
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 09/07: "The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/07
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Wed. 09/06: "In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/06
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 09/05: "Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction".
In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/05
As we wrote in our trading plans published Fri. 09/01: "The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Will this years ES emini futures bull run last?
Will this current measured move sustain to higher levels?
Tough call not knowing what the man in charge will be doing at the next FOMC meeting.
Until then, we trade what we see, and what is in front of us.
So for now, I see some headwind moving up from here, OB's everywhere.
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/01
As we wrote in our trading plans published Mon. 08/28: “If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias”. We got this confirmation with Monday's close, and our models have turned cautiously bullish on Tue. 08/29....
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/29
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Mon. 08/28: "If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias". We got this confirmation with yesterday's close, and our models are turning cautiously bullish...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/28
As we wrote in our trading plans published Thu. 08/24: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". On Friday, 08/25, we wrote: "Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will...
Boring is better in a recession. Fed Chair reaffirmed his steely resolve to fight inflation. In short, he wants to break the back of inflation "at any cost" to subdue it down to Fed’s target of 2%. Soft-landing is desired. But overcorrection to fend off sticky inflation could tip soft-landing into a hard one.
In a recession, economic activities shrink resulting...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/25
Notwithstanding Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, our models continue to not give credence to the bounce above 4400 in SPX. We need confirmatory signs before we negate our bearish bias.
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down,...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/24
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on...
