UKOIL H4 | Bullish riseUKOIL is falling towards the buy entry which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 66.99
Stop loss is at 65.64
Take profit is at 69.79
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Energy Commodities
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave "3").Wave “C” continues to develop in a five-wave movement. Right now, I think wave “1” has just ended and we will see a small correction to the 66,280 area (wave ‘2’), after which I expect wave “3” to develop, which should go further than the 60 support level, but this is a fairly strong psychological level at which it would be good to take profits.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USCrudeOil| Inventory Draw Lifts Prices Fed Geopolitics in Focus🛢️ USCRUDE OIL – Overview
Oil edges higher amid U.S. stock draw
WTI crude oil futures rose to $63.45 per barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session after U.S. crude inventories posted a bigger-than-expected draw.
📊 EIA data showed stockpiles fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million, compared to expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw, providing short-term support for prices.
At the same time, markets are watching closely for progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. Any breakthrough that results in easing sanctions on Russian crude exports could shift global supply dynamics.
Despite the latest rebound, crude prices remain down over 10% year-to-date, pressured by expectations of oversupply as OPEC+ restores output and tariff concerns weigh on demand outlook.
🔎 Technical Outlook
Bearish Scenario:
As long as price trades below the pivot line at 63.47, downside targets are seen at 61.83, and a break lower could extend losses toward 60.16.
Bullish Scenario:
A 4H candle close above 63.47 would open the way toward 64.72, with further upside potential toward 65.80 – 67.20.
📍 Key Levels
Pivot: 63.47
Support: 62.25 – 61.85 – 60.20
Resistance: 64.70 – 65.80 – 67.20
⚠️ Crude remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and inventory data — expect volatility around key supply developments.
Previous idea:
Natural Gas Equities Showing Relative StrengthNatural Gas was briefly red today but saw a bit of a bullish recovery.
Price action came very close to filling the weekly downside gap but just missed it.
Inventories are set to be released tomorrow at 10:30am
Interestingly, Nat Gas stocks like NYSE:AR & NYSE:EQT showed great relative strength in the market today.
Is this signaling a pop in Nat Gas price tomorrow?
We are long NYSE:AR calls from yesterday.
Oil; War or supply and demandOil is preparing for a strong upward move and is in the buying range marked with blue lines and will move at least to the ceiling range if confirmed.
Will the war in the Middle East or US economic policies or supply and demand of OPEC and other producers cause this move?
We have to wait and see
Stay with me and be profitable
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USOIL - 1HMarket hovering around ~63 which validates my earlier post.
Now considering if bulls can keep the momentum going, next target is ~64-64.2 right into resistance.
Earlier price rejected at 62.6-7 area few times only to fill the FVG below and break above 62.7 shows bulls weren't playing around.
Now I am skeptical since we have our friend Jerry speaking tomorrow to ruin our lives, I am betting bulls will keep the momentum going till Jerry speaks.
If he's dovish we make a break above 64, if he's hawkish we will see bearish momentum continuing till 60 IMO.
NFA
Bullish reversal off pullback support?USO/USD has bounced off the support level, which is a pullback support, and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 62.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 60.51
Why we lik eit:
There is a multi swing low support.
Take profit: 65.51
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up witht he 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Crude Oil - Why I see it at $56 in the coming weeksCrude is trading below the centerline.
The pressing shows that the “election whales” don’t want higher prices at the moment.
Why?
No idea, and it doesn’t matter either.
All I’m interested in is where I can find a good entry to short crude. For example, a pullback to the pressure line, with a money management stop, or behind one of the weekly candles. It’s all a question of how much risk you’re allowed to take according to risk management.
Let’s see if we get an entry to join the sleigh ride down to the centerline.
USOIL - lookoutMultiple rejections at R2 on 1H as marked, however price bounced back from the R1 pivot.
It seems traders are trying to hold price in anticipation of the EIA data tomorrow.
Personally I feel R3 will be hit, but I would trade cautiously, if you're like me and missed the move. Wait for confirmations, don't just jump in.
NFA
WTI OIL Buy signal if the 4H MA50 breaks.WTI Oil (USOIL) appears to have found short-term Support since the August 13 Low, turning sideways, with its 4H RSI however on Higher Lows, thus displaying a Bullish Divergence.
This is similar to the June 24 - July 02 Bullish Divergence, which once it broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it topped a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will be waiting for the 4H MA50 bullish break-out signal to target $65.60 (Fib 0.382).
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Crude Oil Warning $66.40 Flip Signals $63.86 TargetWTI rolled over after failing near $68.66096 (top red dashed line). The breakdown through $66.40002 turned that level into resistance 🚧. After a sharp selloff, price is now hovering around the $65.54 area (thin entry line labeled 65.54232), just beneath the minor pivot band at 65.54 / 65.52 / 65.21 (green dashed cluster labeled 65.54232 • 65.52347 • 65.20824). The structure is lower-high → lower-low, which keeps momentum bearish while price holds below $66.40. If sellers keep control, the next magnet is the confluence support around $63.86661 (first lower green dashed line), with extension into $63.51000–$63.46746 if momentum accelerates.
You can also see repeated “S” tags on the push down from the high and into the mid-range, while the “B” tags cluster only at pullback lows—classic distribution behavior. Any spikes toward $66.07 (label 66.07275) and especially $66.40 should attract supply unless bulls reclaim and hold above that zone.
Trade setup 🎯 (from the chart):
• Entry: $65.54232 (≈ $65.54)
• Stop-loss: $66.07275 (≈ $66.07), conservative SL above $66.40002 if you prefer more room
• Targets: $63.86661 first take-profit; stretch targets $63.51000 → $63.46746
This offers a solid bearish R:R while price stays capped beneath $66.40. As it moves your way, book small profits 💰 at each objective, trail stops 🔒 (e.g., to $65.52 once under $65.21), and size the position to your own risk tolerance—WTI can spike on headlines.
Invalidation: A sustained reclaim and hold above $66.40 would neutralize the immediate bearish bias and open room back toward $68.66. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down 📉.
USOIL - Swing IdeaSo I am just speculating, price is kind of rangebound for now but hear me out.
The Asskonhole tomorrow with the lizard people may or may not provide the fuel for the price to revisit ~60 area and we could see a nice bounce.
I mean I don't see why we can't revisit ~64-65 earlier but we would need some sort of war news or supply shock.
this is purely speculation and NFA
New Bear Market? Heavy Tech SelloffToday the markets were shattered by weakness in mega cap tech.
All major leading companies in the QQQ were severely down.
We saw the majority of the S&P 500 sectors green with health care leading the charge.
Despite all indices closing negative this was not a full fledge market sell.
Commodities were hit across the board. Gold, Nat gas, Oil, Uranium, Silver were all down.
It seems the market is de risking into J Powell Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday / Friday.
Today we closed out NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:PLTR short & trimmed AMEX:MSOS puts for over 105%
We were very active on the option and swing trading side of the market.
India’s Andaman Sea Oil Prospect: A Strategic Inflection PointThe Discovery: Unprecedented Potential
In mid‑June 2025, India’s Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, announced that India might be on the threshold of discovering a Guyana‑scale oil field in the Andaman Sea, with estimated reserves of around 184,440 crore litres (approximately 1.844 trillion litres) of crude oil. Should exploration confirm commercial viability, Puri suggested this find could elevate India to a $20 trillion economy—a bold leap from its current size of approximately $3.7 trillion.
Economic Leverage: What a Discovery Could Unlock
A discovery of this magnitude has several transformative implications:
Energy Independence: India imports roughly 90% of its oil and about 50% of its natural gas, a dependency that strains foreign exchange reserves. Indigenous production from Andaman could significantly reduce this reliance.
Boost to GDP Growth: At face value, such reserves could be seen as a catalyst for exponential GDP growth—hence the “$20 trillion economy” projection. However, this estimate is largely speculative, hinging on assumptions around extraction timelines, global oil demand, reinvestment, and economic multipliers.
Fiscal and Credit Gains: Lowering oil import bills may free up fiscal resources, strengthen the current account, and improve sovereign credit metrics.
Strategic Fit in India’s Energy Transition Strategy
India’s broader energy goals are shifting:
Deepwater Exploration Initiative: As recently as August 2025, Prime Minister Modi highlighted a policy push towards deep‑sea oil exploration and nuclear expansion to reduce dependence on imports and enhance energy security.
Diversification: Even if oil demand plateaus or declines—as argued by experts due to the global shift to renewables—the discovery still represents strategic insurance during the transition period.
Strategic Geography and Infrastructure Implications
Geopolitical Leverage: The Andaman Sea and the adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands control key shipping lanes such as the Ten Degree Channel, which connects to the Malacca and Singapore Straits—a major chokepoint through which global trade passes.
Infrastructure Synergy: The ongoing Great Nicobar Island Development Project, with plans for ports, airports, and power infrastructure, could complement energy ambitions by improving access and logistics in the region.
Challenges and Caveats
A host of practical and theoretical hurdles remain:
Exploration Costs & Viability: Deep‑sea drilling is capital‑intensive, with execution risks and regulatory complexities.
Market Uncertainty: Long‑term oil demand may taper as renewables gain traction. The economic upside depends on effective commercialization and resource reinvestment.
Environmental Sensitivities: The Andaman region harbours rich marine ecosystems and tribal communities. Infrastructure expansion may generate ecological and social pushback (echoed in debates around the Great Nicobar development).
Infrastructure Readiness: Transport, refining capacity, export pipelines, and port facilities will need substantial enhancement to process and deliver oil to markets efficiently.
Strategic Outlook and Policy Imperatives
For India to translate this potential oil bounty into sustainable growth:
Rigorous Verification: Prioritize economic feasibility studies, environmental impact assessments, and phased exploration.
Balanced Energy Policy: Use revenues to fund renewables, reduce carbon footprint, and build resilience—rather than doubling down solely on hydrocarbons.
Infrastructure Investment: Expand refining capability, logistics, and export terminals in an eco-sensitive, inclusive manner.
Regional Development: Harness this momentum to boost local economies—creating jobs, improving connectivity, and uplifting communities in the Andaman and Nicobar region.
Geostrategic Positioning: Take advantage of Andaman’s location to secure sea lanes and enhance India’s Indo-Pacific posture.
While headlines envisioning a fivefold GDP surge remain speculative, the preliminary discovery in the Andaman Sea represents a promising and strategically significant opportunity. If proven commercially viable and paired with thoughtful policy, infrastructure, and environmental stewardship, it could be a cornerstone in India’s quest for energy independence and economic transformation. But prudent, phased, and balanced planning will be essential to realize this potential responsibly.
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General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss.
NATGAS - Catch The Impulse!As Wave Traders, our job is to spot corrections and catch the impulse, because that’s where the biggest moves happen.
On NATGAS, we completed Wave 1 with a leading diagonal, and are now finishing Wave 2 (an ABC correction). Once corrections are done, the next phase is Wave 3 - historically the longest and strongest wave in Elliott Wave Theory.
We've almost completed wave 2 and looking for a breakout for wave 3, which is the longest wave.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for break of the red trendline to indicate the start of wave 3
- enter with stops below breakout or below invalidation
- Targets: 5, 10, 13
NATGAS 12H Chart:
We'll be looking to enter on break of the red trendline with stops below breakout.
This setup is a textbook example of how Elliott Wave helps us prepare - not chase - the market.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
Devon Energy: A High-Dividend Setup Worth WatchingA shale specialist with big dividends, when the price is right.
Devon Energy is a U.S.-based oil and gas company focused on domestic shale production, particularly in the Delaware Basin, one of the most cost-efficient regions. It’s known for paying a “variable dividend”, meaning payouts rise when profits rise, and shrink when oil prices fall.
With its smaller size, Devon is more volatile than oil giants, but also more agile when prices are strong.
✅ Key Strengths:
- High dividends when oil prices are elevated.
- Efficient, low-cost production in the Delaware Basin.
- Strong upside when Brent crude rises.
⚠️ Potential Risks:
- Dividends decrease sharply if oil prices fall.
- More price swings due to smaller market cap and higher sensitivity.
📈 Technical View
As someone who appreciates structure in technical analysis, I have to say: this chart is a gem. Clean movements, clear tops and visually logical price behaviors.
Let me break it down:
From its all-time high in 2008, DVN went through a long downtrend — making a series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). For over a decade, buyers couldn’t gain control, even for short-term higher highs.
But that changed in 2020.
That rally brought a long-awaited structural shift: a higher high (HH), meaning buyers finally pushed the price above a previous high. The trend reversed, and the sentiment flipped.
Now what?
The stock has done a textbook pullback, a normal retracement after a strong move.
It currently sits at a critical technical confluence zone:
- The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (often referred to as the “golden ratio”)
- A well-defined horizontal support level
- Structurally healthy trend
- Clear prior breakout
👉 Technically, this is a sound setup: structure + support + healthy trend. If buyers defend here, upside potential is strong.
Regards,
Vaido
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion, not investment advice.
USOIL Will Move Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 62.604.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 60.001 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Nears Its Lowest LevelXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Nears Its Lowest Level Since Early Summer
According to the XBR/USD chart, this morning (19 August) Brent crude oil price is showing bearish momentum, moving towards its lowest level since early summer (set last week). The key bearish drivers in the market include:
→ OPEC+ policy aimed at increasing production;
→ expectations that negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which would further expand global supply.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
In our analysis on 5 August, we noted that:
→ Brent crude had fallen to an important support level (marked in blue), which held throughout July;
→ a bearish breakout attempt below the blue support line was possible.
Indeed, in early August the price confirmed a bearish breakout of the blue line, accompanied by signs of rising volatility – the line subsequently reversed its role from support to resistance (as indicated by the arrows on the left-hand side of the chart).
Bears then consolidated their position, continuing to apply pressure and forming a downward channel (shown in red). The question now is whether Brent prices can continue their decline.
From a bullish perspective, there are grounds for demand to strengthen around the key support level at $65.00 (as indicated by the arrows on the right-hand side of the chart):
→ during an attempt to move lower, the chart formed a bullish harami reversal pattern;
→ this level acted as support following the bearish gap at this week’s market opening;
→ yesterday’s long lower shadow highlights aggressive buying activity.
From a bearish perspective, August’s downtrend remains intact – though it may be losing momentum. Note the RSI indicator, which is gradually leaning towards the 50 level (if bears were still firmly in control, it would remain closer to oversold territory).
This suggests that bulls may attempt to seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the descending channel, seeking to offset at least part of Brent’s nearly 10% decline since late July. In this scenario, the $67.40 level – where bears previously demonstrated strong control – could become a critical test of demand resilience.
Tomorrow’s key releases could significantly influence price action: crude oil inventories (15:30 GMT+3) and the FOMC minutes (21:00 GMT+3).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil Prices Drop on Russia-Ukraine Talks HopeOil prices decline in anticipation of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to facilitate a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, following his Monday summit with Zelenskiy and European leaders. Zelenskiy called the talks with Trump “very productive,” highlighting discussions on U.S. security assurances for Ukraine. A resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lift sanctions on Russian energy exports, freeing up crude oil trade. Oil prices have dropped around 10% this month due to trade tensions and increased OPEC+ production.
Technically the price consolidates below the intermediate 6,300.00, forming the bearish pennant. Price is getting ready to decline. Here, the first target will be the major level of 6,000.00.