Crude OilU.S Oil Index
- Exp Fiat as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
- Break of Structure
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
- Sell Side Liquidity
- Order Block
Energy Commodities
USOIL: Consolidation First, Breakout Next After crude oil plummeted last week to a low near 58.1, it rebounded on Friday and closed around 59.5, basically confirming a consolidating trend.
For this week, crude oil is expected to first trade in a low-range consolidation before assessing the potential for a unilateral move. Focus on the 58 level as support below and 62 as resistance above; trade within this range using a "buy low and sell high" strategy.
Go long around the 58.2 level.
Go short around the 61.8 level.
If the price breaks out of this range, then look for a unilateral trend to follow.
Core trading logic:The current crude oil market is in a balanced state of "relatively abundant supply + weak demand + macroeconomic uncertainty + technical fluctuations", with no clear trend direction. Therefore, a mixed strategy of "interval high selling and low buying + breakthrough confirmation for follow-up" is adopted. The focus is on the core range of $58 - $61. Buy at the support level and sell at the resistance level. At the same time, a follow-up position after a trend breakthrough is reserved to balance stability and flexibility.
Crude oil trading strategy
buy：60-60.5
tp:61-61.5
sl:59.5
BRIEFING Week #46 : Make or BreakHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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How did crude oil take over and start rising?Rebalancing of Fed policy expectations, weakening of dollar suppression
The core inflation data in the US shows a downward trend. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December remains above 60%, and overly hawkish expectations have been partially corrected. The US dollar index is experiencing pressure near the 100 mark, and the momentum of its previous strength has weakened, reducing its suppression effect on crude oil. Historical data indicates that the negative correlation between the US dollar index and crude oil prices is more significant in volatile markets. If the US dollar declines next week, it will provide liquidity support for the rebound of oil prices.
Next week, we will share the trading strategies for crude oil.
buy：59.50-59.70
tp:60.50-60.70
sl:59.95
Crude Oil bull run is comingI can't help but think Crude Oil is about to go on a massive run.
USDJPY chop from 5-6 years ago feels like the crude oil price action.
Economy is weak, would be a shame if price of gas doubled.
NYMEX:CL1!
Natural Gas Prices Hover Near a Three-Year HighNatural Gas Prices Hover Near a Three-Year High
As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices are trading close to the March peak, which is the highest level since December 2022.
According to Trading Economics, the rise in gas prices has been driven by several factors:
→ Despite short-term warming in the US, weather models point to colder conditions ahead.
→ LNG exports remain elevated, as European buyers continue seeking alternatives to Russian gas. In November, average shipments across the eight major US terminals reached 17.8 billion cubic feet per day, exceeding the previous record of 16.7 billion in October.
→ The International Energy Agency expects global demand for oil and gas to continue rising until 2050, reflecting uncertainties surrounding the pace of the energy transition.
At the same time, chart analysis suggests that the upside potential may be limited.
Technical Analysis of XNG/USD
Price action is approaching a major resistance area, formed by:
→ the upper boundary of the channel, widened after the bullish breakout in late October;
→ the psychological level of $5.000 per MMBtu;
→ the previously mentioned March high.
Meanwhile, the more than 50% rally since early autumn has been significant, and long-position holders may be tempted to take profits. Therefore, if the price attempts to break above these resistance levels, it may result in a false bullish breakout (a buyer’s trap) followed by a pullback.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The bearish trend of crude oil has been establishedDownward revision of global crude oil demand growth expectations, weak terminal consumption
Both OPEC and IEA have lowered their 2025 demand growth expectations. IEA predicts that the annual demand will only increase by 700,000 barrels per day, the slowest growth rate since 2009. The average weekly supply of US crude oil products has decreased by 0.91% year-on-year, European diesel consumption remains sluggish, and the replenishment demand of core Asian consuming countries shows "short cycle, low intensity" characteristics, making it difficult to form a sustained support. Currently, the demand side of crude oil lacks clear growth momentum, and the mismatch between supply and demand has further intensified.
The effect of renewable energy substitution continues, squeezing the space for crude oil demand
Global wind power and photovoltaic installations continue to expand. European wind power output has returned to normal levels, and Asian photovoltaic new installations maintain high growth rates. The electricity supply gap has narrowed, leading to a reduction in crude oil replenishment demand. At the same time, the share of biofuels in the transportation sector has steadily increased, even with short-term cost fluctuations, the long-term substitution trend has not changed, further limiting the growth potential of crude oil demand.
Crude oil trading strategy
sell：58.45-58.55
tp:58.25-58.35
sl:58.15
LNG Week 46: +40 BCF Build Beats 5-Yr Avg as Cold Snap Ends*Due to the platform's features, the charts are arranged in sequence from left to right, from the first to the tenth chart. The charts were created by our team and based on an analysis from Bloomberg and the EIA data. This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE.
Current prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration, by month since 2010
December and winter contracts continue to rise, remaining well above the upper limit of the interquartile range. The current NGZ25 contract is trading above USD 4.5, which corresponds to the February 2026 contract and the December 2027 contract.
Forward curve compared to 2020-2025
The shape of the 2025 forward curve on nearby contracts has broken away from the 2023–2024 ranges, but contracts with delivery in two years and beyond continue to show clear price stabilization at historically stable levels.
Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
According to the forecast for week 45 (November 7), gas reserves in underground storage facilities will increase by +40 BCF, which is higher than the average of +31 BCF for the past five years, but is within the upper quantile of 58 BCF. At the same time, the stock level will reach 3954 BCF, which corresponds to the 2024 level.
HDD+CDD based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024
Current HDD+CDD values by region show maximum values for the previous 30 years of observations. After November 13, HDD is expected to decrease due to warming and return to average values and below.
HDD+CDD based on current NOAA data and forecast compared to 1994-2024 by region
In terms of regions, the sharp cold snap mainly affected the central regions and the South Atlantic. By November 13-14, temperatures are expected to return to average values.
Weekly total supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024
On November 10, the difference between supply and demand in 2025 is in the middle range for 2014–2024, indicating a balance between supply and demand for this period.
Number of days for delivery from warehouses
The graph shows the number of days of supply from storage alone, based on current consumption levels. As of November 12, 2025, reserves are sufficient for approximately 30 days, which is below the historical minimum. With this level of reserves and consumption, even minor disruptions in production or spikes in demand could cause significant price reactions, especially in late winter and early spring.
Filling level of European storage facilities
The overall fill rate of European gas storage facilities as of November 12 is 82.2%, which is 8% below the average fill rate and 10% lower than last year. Seasonally, Europe is entering a period of withdrawal from storage facilities.
Filling level of European storage facilities by country
Particularly low storage levels of 60-80% are observed in Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, the Netherlands, and Slovakia. At the same time, storage levels in Poland, Italy, France, Romania, and Portugal have reached 90-100%.
Electricity generation by source
Compared to last week, the US48 energy balance for November 12, 2025, is characterized by an increase in gas generation (+1.5%) and coal generation (+1.6%) and a decrease in wind generation (-3%) and nuclear generation (-1%).
Crude OIL - trigger 63$Break of 63 $ area can give right push to the price to arrive untile 71/72 $ area
In this moment we have a H&S pattern but volume is above the price.
If price jump up to POC volume of the last period we can have a rally until next dinamic resistence area.
NATGAS - LONG LONG TERM targetNATGAS - LONG LONG TERM target
This is my evaluation about NatGas for the next week with a long term vision for this winter.
So I think we are in final 5° wave and probably we can break resistence area in 4$ zone
Bearish USOIL: 58 at RiskUSOIL extended the previous session's decline today, showing an overall weak fluctuating downward trend. The core bearish factor of oversupply continues to weigh, with a lack of short-term rebound momentum.
On the indicator front, the 9-day EMA has crossed below the 20-day EMA, forming a short-term death cross signal, indicating that the downward trend is likely to continue. The 14-day RSI hovers around 40, remaining in a downward channel with no oversold rebound signals, suggesting that bears still hold the initiative and there is no large-scale entry of bottom-fishing funds.
In terms of resistance and support, short-term rebound resistance is concentrated at the pivot point of 59.28 and the 59.50-60 range. As a key integer level, failure to reclaim 60 will see bearish sentiment continue to spread. For support below, focus first on 55.7; if the 58 level is broken, a accelerated drop to this support level is highly likely.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 58 - 58.3
SL 58
TP 59 - 59.5 - 60
Sell 59.5 - 60
SL 60.5
TP 58.5 - 58 - 57.5
The Contango Conundrum: Why Crude’s Price Power WanesThe global crude oil market is signaling sustained weakness. A clear sign is the Contango in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures curve for most of 2026. This structure prices future oil deliveries higher than immediate ones, strongly indicating a global supply glut. Major forecasting bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) now confirm a record surplus looms in 2026, reversing previous tight market expectations. Understanding this decline requires a multidisciplinary lens, examining supply resilience against sluggish demand across several domains.
Geostrategy and Geopolitics: Production Over Protocol
Geopolitical decisions, paradoxically, contribute to oversupply. OPEC+ members are gradually unwinding previous voluntary production cuts, adding millions of barrels back to the market. This production boost, formalized in their latest agreements, increases supply visibility and dampens price spikes. Simultaneously, sustained geopolitical tensions between major powers often lead key consumers like China to ramp up Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) , effectively soaking up immediate surplus but reducing future demand visibility. This policy-driven stockpiling mitigates immediate price falls, but structural oversupply persists.
Macroeconomics and Economics: Slowdown Meets Resilience
A deceleration in global oil demand growth meets unexpectedly resilient supply . Macroeconomic headwinds, including trade tensions and a sluggish global economic outlook, suppress consumption growth below historical trends. This tepid demand environment is exacerbated by expanding production from non-OPEC+ nations. Crucially, the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana lead this non-OPEC+ supply expansion, challenging the cartel’s market dominance. The resulting imbalance, production exceeding demand, creates the chronic oversupply driving WTI into contango.
Technology and High-Tech: Efficiency Enhances Supply
Advancements in extraction technology dramatically boosted supply, particularly within the US shale sector. Continuous innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing sustain high US output, even as prices soften. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and increasing vehicle fuel efficiencies represent a major technological headwind for transportation fuel demand. This shift, supported by global patent activity in battery and wave energy technology, structurally limits long-term oil consumption growth.
Patent and Science Analysis: The Energy Transition
Patent activity confirms the directional shift away from fossil fuels. While patents related to downhole completion systems and drilling fluid prediction remain, increased patenting in Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) [/b and Green Hydrogen signals the industry's necessary pivot. The science of energy transition, focusing on low-carbon solutions, suggests a future where oil remains a critical input but faces mounting competition from technological substitutes. This long-term displacement risk pressures oil prices, even if demand remains firm in the short run.
Cyber and Strategic Risk: Supply Chain Security
The increasing reliance on complex digital infrastructure across the oil value chain introduces cyber risk . Successful attacks on pipeline operators or refineries can cause temporary supply disruptions and price spikes. However, the market currently views such disruptions as temporary events rather than long-term structural issues affecting the overall supply-demand balance. The oversupply acts as a buffer, with floating storage and ample inventory mitigating the impact of short-term, localized outages.
Investment Outlook: Watching Spreads
The market signals clearly indicate supply strength and demand vulnerability. The widening WTI contango structure provides a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to finance storage. Investors should closely monitor the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS), which is turning negative, underscoring specific weakening in the Atlantic Basin. Barring a sharp, coordinated OPEC+ cut or an unexpected large-scale geopolitical conflict, pricing pressure should persist into 2026. Traders must prioritize futures spread analysis over simple outright price forecasting.
Brent Oil Under Pressure – Key Resistance Zone Holding Strong!🔥 UKOIL / BRENT Energies Market Opportunity Blueprint (Day & Swing Plan) ⚡️
📉 Plan Overview:
Thief is spotting a Bearish Blueprint on UKOIL / Brent — price confirming rejection around the Triangular Moving Average (TMA) zone 📊. A clean pullback and retest structure are forming — time for a layered sell approach to capitalize on energy market volatility ⚙️
🎯 Entry Idea:
Thief enters with multiple limit layers (Layering Strategy) — scaling in smartly with precision entries:
🔹 Sell Limits @ 64.500 / 64.000 / 63.500
(You can increase or adjust the layers based on your own conviction & market timing 🕰️)
🛑 Stop-Loss Guidance:
This is Thief’s SL @ 65.000 💣
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), adjust your stop loss based on your risk appetite and confirmation setups. Risk management is the crown 👑 of consistency.
💰 Target Zone:
Watch out for the Police Barricade Zone @ 60.500 — this level aligns with strong support, potential oversold condition, and a trap + correction scenario 🔦
Escape with profits before liquidity hunts you — take money when you see money 💵
📘 Note to Thief OG’s:
I’m not recommending my SL or TP as mandatory levels — it’s your chart, your strategy, your risk, your reward. Trade smart, not emotional 🧠
🧩 Related Market Pairs to Watch:
🔸 WTI Crude (USOIL/USD) – Highly correlated with UKOIL. A bearish structure here often confirms momentum for Brent.
🔸 USD/CAD 💵 – Inverse correlation! A rising USD/CAD often strengthens the bearish sentiment in crude markets.
🔸 XLE (Energy ETF) – Keeps track of energy sector performance; confirmation of trend strength adds confluence to your trade.
📊 Key Market Correlations:
Oil reacts strongly to USD strength, global demand outlook, and OPEC sentiment. Keep an eye on DXY (US Dollar Index) — stronger dollar usually pressures Brent prices lower 💹
🚀 Thief Quote of the Day:
"Patience pays more than panic — layer in silence, exit in profit." 🕶️
#UKOIL #Brent #EnergyMarket #ThiefTrader #BearishSetup #LayeringStrategy #SwingTrade #OilMarket #WTI #USD #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis
USOIL: Fluctuating declineCrude oil showed a trend of fluctuating decline today, breaking through key support levels, with a clear bearish dominance.
Key support below: In the short term, attention should be paid to the $59.00 integer mark. If this level is breached, oil prices may further drop to $58.00.
Resistance levels for rebound: If there is a technical rebound in oil prices, the first resistance level is at $60.50, and the second resistance level is at $61.50, with limited rebound space.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 59 - 59.5
SL 58.5
TP 60 - 60.5 - 61
Sell 60.5 - 61
SL 61.5
TP 59.1 - 58.5
WTI Crude Oil – Update
I’ve entered a short position around this zone.
I don’t predict the market — I just follow opportunities.
It doesn’t matter what happens after entry; I simply follow my plan.
Those who’ve been following me know my system:
At a 1:1 reward, I close half of my position — that means zero risk.
If the market reverses and hits my stop, I lose nothing.
If it keeps moving, I use a trailing stop to catch as much of the move as possible.
That’s what real position management looks like.
And if my level breaks, I don’t just sit and watch — I’ll go long with the market.
I don’t predict or guess the future;
I trade with discipline, patience, and respect for the market.
I’m a trader, not a fortune teller.
WTI OIL Successive 1D MA50 rejections. Sell Signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Down with the price experiencing successive rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the October 24 Lower High.
Given that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level was also filled (as on the previous Lower High), we expect this inability to break above, to kickstart the new Bearish Leg.
As previously, the Target is the Support at $56.00.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Oil - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Downtrend line breakout.
Higher highs.
No opposite signs.
Until the two strong support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further.
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USOIL Will Grow! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 60.422.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 65.013 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USOIL: Q4/2025 Q1 2026 Action PlansSentiment:
- The broader market is cautious in a risk-off environment, which typically translates to concerns about demand and the strength of the US dollar. However, the market is not in a state of panic as the Fear Index is at around 30, opening room for either direction.
- Social Media (X/Twitter): The current tone is positive, as participants expect USOil to rise within the range of 57.50-65.00 in the near term, anticipating an upcoming upward breakout.
- The COT report shows extremely bearish sentiment regarding the latest data from 26/9 (following the US government shutdown), so we can only have a snapshot of more than a month ago. Although the current sentiment may or may not be as extreme (we need to wait for the latest data), it still reflects the state of market positioning.
- I think that Retail is unaware of positioning extremes and is more focused on technical breakout. It may lead to a sentiment shift as a result of a technical breakout and changes in the fundamental narrative.
Fundamental:
A. OPEC+ Production Shift:
- Narrative: OPEC+ has pivoted to MORE cautious supply management. After nine consecutive monthly increases, the group is now implementing only a modest 137k bpd increase for Dec 2025, followed by a production pause for the entire first quarter of 2026.
- Rationale: Healthy market fundamentals, low inventory levels, seasonal demand
- It means more supportive than what we observed earlier in 2025. Q1 2026 pause suggests OPEC+ acknowledges oversupply risks and is being disciplined. One more thing to note is that the current price is also not entirely factored into this narrative.
B. Geopolitical Risk Premium Returning:
- Narrative: Recent US/EU sanctions on Russian energy companies and escalating tension in oil-producing regions are providing price support.
- Market impact: This narrative provides a fundamental floor for price at least till the end of this year.
C. Bearish Fundamentals - Oversupply into 2026:
- Narrative: Despite the OPEC+ pause, global oil inventories are expected to rise through 2026 on weak demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases (such as the US production)
- Factors: global inventories forecast to rise through 2026, weak demand from China, tariff uncertainties and US production at record levels.
- Market impact: Bearish medium-term outlook for Q1-Q2 2026.
Technical:
- USOIL broke the small blue channel and is expected to reach the measured level at around 65, confluence with the Sep resistances.
- If USOIL can hold above 60 (retest the broken channel), it may resume its momentum to retest the key resistance at 62 first, then 65, as measured by the move upon breaking.
- Conversely, closing below the support at 59.30 may invalidate the short-term upward view and open the door for further decline, potentially retesting the swing low at 56.80.
Conclusion:
- Despite a short-term upward momentum until year-end, the prospect for USOIL in 2026 is not as promising.
- Therefore, a range of 65-70 is possible for the short term upward plan; however, any surge bejond that may open another opportunity for counter-trade setups in Q1-Q2 2026.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
How to Trade Crude Oil with Smart Money Concepts SMC Explained
Smart Money Concepts is one of the most reliable techniques for trading WTI Crude Oil.
In this article, I will teach you a profitable SMC strategy for analysing and trading USOIL futures and CFD.
This simple strategy is based on an important event every SMC trader should know - a break of structure BoS.
In a bullish trend, the best break of structure will be based on a violation and a candle close above a current higher high.
It will signify a highly probable bullish continuation and provides a great opportunity to buy
Though you can spot a bullish break of structure on any time frame, the most reliable one is a daily.
After a formation of a new high, I suggest waiting for a short term intraday correctional movement.
With a high probability, the market will retest a recently broken structure and smart money will manipulate the market, pushing the price below that, making buyers close their positions.
Once the market starts retracing, analyze an hourly time frame. The price will need to establish an i ntraday minor bearish trend.
In this bearish trend, 2 trend lines should connect lower highs and lower lows composing an expanding, parallel or contracting channel - a bullish flag pattern.
Your best signal will be a breakout of a resistance line of the flag and a violation of the level of the last lower high - a bullish change of character of a liquidity grab.
It will confirm a completion of a correction.
Buy the market on a retest of the level of the last higher low, it will be your best entry.
Set your stop loss at least below a trend line and aim at the next strong daily resistance.
That will be a perfect model for trading break of structure on WTI Crude Oil.
We spotted such a setup in my trading academy on one of the live streams with my students.
WTI Crude Oil was trading in an uptrend on a daily time frame.
A bullish violation of the last Higher High and a candle close above that confirmed a Break of Structure BoS.
The price started a correctional movement then, and we spotted a bullish flag pattern on an hourly time frame.
The market completed a correction after grabbing a liquidity below a broken structure.
A bullish movement started then, and the price violated a resistance line of the flag and the level of the last lower high.
These 2 breakouts confirmed a completion of a correction and a resumption of a bullish trend.
We opened a buy position immediately on a retest of a broken level of the last lower high.
Stop loss was below a trend line, take profit was based on the closest key daily resistance.
And the price went straight to the target.
Break of Structure BoS will be useful for analysis, forecasting and trading WTI Crude Oil.
Combining that with top-down analysis and lower time frames confirmations will provide accurate signals and profitable trading setups.
Integrate a price model that I shared in your strategy, and good luck to you trading USOIL!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Is XTI/USD Setting Up for a Sharp Bearish Correction?🚨 WTI/USD CRUDE OIL: THE BEARISH HEIST AWAITS 🎯
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
THE SETUP: Breaking Down The Crime Scene 🕵️♂️
We're executing a bearish pullback strategy on WTI/USD spot crude oil, leveraging the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) as our primary technical confirmation. The energy sector is flashing opportunity signals, and it's time to work the levels like a seasoned professional.
📊 STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
Market Direction: Bearish Pullback from 200 SMA Resistance
Timeframe: Suitable for Swing & Day Trading Operations
Asset Class: Energies | WTI Crude Oil Spot
💰 THE LAYERED ENTRY STRATEGY (Multi-Level Approach)
This is where the Thief Method shines—stacking limit orders at key price levels to accumulate positions as the market comes to you:
Suggested Entry Layer Points:
Layer 1: 60.50 💧
Layer 2: 60.00 💧
Layer 3: 59.50 💧
Layer 4: 59.00 💧
⚠️ Pro Tip: Feel free to add or adjust layers based on your risk tolerance and position size. The beauty of this method is scalability—customize to YOUR account size and risk parameters.
🛑 STOP LOSS PLACEMENT
Primary SL Level: 61.00
Positioned at the nearest swing high/candle wick resistance above our entry cluster. This respects natural market structure and gives us a defined, measurable risk point.
⚡ DISCLAIMER ON RISK MANAGEMENT:
This is NOT financial advice. Risk management is YOUR responsibility. The suggested SL is based on technical structure, but YOU control your account. Set stops that align with YOUR risk tolerance. Trade only what you can afford to lose.
🎯 PROFIT TARGET STRUCTURE
Primary Target: 56.50
Secondary Support Level: 56.00 — A police barricade of strength where multiple factors converge:
Strong historical support confluence 📍
Oversold zone recognition ⚖️
Potential reversal trap (exit strategy alert) ⚠️
Exit Strategy: Consider banking profits at 56.50 before support intensifies at 56.00. Lock in gains as the technical structure suggests potential friction.
⚡ DISCLAIMER ON PROFIT TARGETS:
Again, these are TECHNICAL levels only. YOU decide your exit strategy. Whether you take full profits at 56.50, trail stops, or use partial exits—this is YOUR trading plan. No setup is guaranteed.
🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (Correlation Check)
Understanding energy market interrelations helps you spot confirmation signals:
US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) → Inverse correlation to crude oil. Strengthen USD = Bearish pressure on oil. Watch DXY for confirmation of our bearish bias.
CSEMA:S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY / CME_MINI:ES1! ) → Risk sentiment indicator. If equities weaken, crude often follows bearish patterns. Check equity trends for macro confirmation.
Energy Select Sector ETF ( AMEX:XLE ) → Direct correlation. Tracks large-cap energy stocks. Oil weakness often precedes XLE drops.
FX:EURUSD → Global risk sentiment. Weak euro = risk-off environment = potential crude weakness. Monitor for macro context.
AMEX:USO (Crude Oil ETF) → Direct oil tracking instrument. Moves in lockstep with WTI. Use for backup confirmation.
📋 THE THIEF STRATEGY CHECKLIST
✅ Confirm 200 SMA as resistance/bearish context
✅ Stack limit orders—don't chase price
✅ Define your personal stop loss (around 61.00 structure)
✅ Target scale-outs near 56.50-56.00
✅ Use correlation pairs for macro confirmation
✅ Manage position size ruthlessly
✅ Accept losses—they're tuition in the market
💬 ENGAGEMENT BOOST
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#WTI #CrudeOil #EnergyTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #SwingTrading #DayTrading #Trading101 #ForexEnergy #MultiLayerEntry #RiskManagement #TradingSetup #FinancialMarkets #Energies #TradingCommunity
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has rebounded, presenting another selling opportunity. We maintain our bearish outlook on crude oil. Today, you can sell directly at 61.00, or consider selling at 61.50. Regardless of the fluctuations, it's a sell opportunity. Crude oil volatility has been minimal in recent months, so patience is needed to enter the market. The overall trend for crude oil is unlikely to change.
Fundamental Analysis:
There are no major data releases today; all are routine data. The most important data this week is tomorrow's CPI, which has seen significant fluctuations over the past year.
Trading Recommendation:
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00
