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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

S&P500 Final rally to 6925, then sell-off to 1D MA200?The S&P500 index (SPX) had a massive Friday rebound on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and yesterday touched again its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this time as a Resistance. If it manages to break and close a 1D candle above it, we expect the current rebound to continue and evolve into the end-of-year rally and test at least the ATH Resistance at 6925. The 1D RSI sequence suggests that we may be currently inside a same pattern as the December 2024 - January 2025 fractal, which after a 1D MA100 rebound it hit the ATH Resistance again and then got heavily rejected back to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and beyond. As a result, after the rally, our medium-term Target is 6300 (expected contact with the 1D MA200). --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P Futures Trading Day 76 — Trading Away From the Keyboard GoneEnded the day -$921 trading S&P Futures. This was a tough one to swallow. I was busy running around and away from the screens, so I set limit orders at major levels I was confident would reject. Unfortunately, the market had other plans—a surprise short squeeze triggered by the Ukraine peace deal news broke through everything. In hindsight, I should have sized down to 5 MES instead of 10 given I wasn't watching the charts, but truthfully, this felt like one of those unavoidable losses where a macro shock simply invalidates the technicals. 🔔News Highlights: *UKRAINE AGREES TO PEACE DEAL WITH US, TALKS WITH RUSSIA UNDERWAY 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6790= Bullish Level Below 6740= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Wed (Nov 26)Market Overview The equity markets are currently facing a pivotal moment. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) has made a significant rebound from the daily low around 6,520, approaching robust resistance levels formed by the highs of the previous week and yesterday. Both daily and 4-hour charts reveal a consistent pattern of higher lows emerging from a recent trough. However, the price now finds itself just beneath a key distribution cap and Fibonacci extension zone, estimated between 6,810 and 6,888. The daily momentum oscillator has shifted upward from an oversold position and remains at a mid-range level, indicating that while it is not yet overbought, the general trend still favors buying the dips, provided that crucial support levels are maintained. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) mirrors this momentum, hovering near its New York Pre-Market (NYPM) peak. Recent gains have been bolstered by impressive earnings from Nvidia, highlighting the ongoing AI narrative, even as concerns about a potential market bubble begin to emerge, with NVDA's stock showing signs of volatility. Events & News for Wednesday 26 Nov (Pre-Thanksgiving) Wednesday is a data-heavy session in the U.S., and it’s also the last “normal” day before the Thanksgiving holiday liquidity vacuum. Expect volatility spikes and potential regime shifts around: • 08:30 ET – Weekly jobless claims plus a cluster of delayed October releases: durable goods orders, trade balance/wholesale data, personal income & core PCE inflation, and related indicators. • 10:00 ET – New home sales and other housing-related data. • 10:30 ET – EIA crude oil inventories (can move risk sentiment via energy/curve). • 14:00 ET – Fed Beige Book, giving an updated regional read on growth and inflation ahead of December’s FOMC meeting. In addition, the BEA has postponed the Q3 GDP second estimate that had been scheduled for this week, so markets are leaning more heavily on the data above for macro guidance. Net takeaway: 8:30 ET is the main volatility window, with a second impulse risk at 10:00–10:30 and potential trend extension or reversal into the NY morning kill-zone. Key Zones (ES Z-25, based on current structure) Immediate Resistance • R1: 6,790–6,795 NYPM High / Prior Day High cluster (NYPM.H 6,792.5, PDH & Y-VAH 6,792.5). Sellers have defended this intraday band so far; it’s the lid of today’s range. • R2: 6,805–6,815 1H fib extension 1.272 (≈ 6,810.25) plus likely PWH vicinity. First HTF extension above today’s range; a clean “stop run & decision zone” if 6,795 breaks. • R3: 6,840–6,850 1H fib extension 1.618 (≈ 6,847.25). If buyers punch through R2, this is the next logical magnet and a strong candidate for an exhaustion spike on good data. • R4: 6,880–6,900 1H fib 2.000 (≈ 6,888) and prior daily swing-high area. That whole 6,888–6,900 pocket is a big-picture objective and, for now, a likely “weak high” that could attract a stop run but also host the first serious counter-trend attempts. Support / Demand • S1: 6,765–6,775 Yesterday’s POC (~6,769.5), NY lunch high/NYL.H (6,774.25), and top of the 1H consolidation shelf. As long as the market keeps closing above this band on 15–60m, the short-term uptrend remains intact. • S2: 6,720–6,735 Y-VAL 6,720.5, LO.H 6,721.5, ONH 6,732.5. This is the top of the prior value area and a natural “buy-the-dip” location if 6,770 gives way on data noise. • S3: 6,670–6,705 NYAM.L 6,674.5, IB Low 6,674.5, ONL 6,701.75, plus current LOL 6,701.75. If we get a deeper flush, this is the primary intraday demand band where bulls must step back in to preserve the recent trend from the daily low. • S4: 6,560–6,580 PDL 6,574.5 and top of the larger daily discount block. A break and sustained acceptance below here would open the door for a much larger retrace back toward the 6,520–6,420 HTF discount zone (daily 1.272/1.618 fibs). Market Outlook: Bias & Forecast (Overnight → NY Session) Structural Bias: The prevailing market sentiment remains bullish as long as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) sustains its position above the support range of 6,720–6,735 on a closing basis. The likely trajectory indicates a probing towards the 6,810–6,850 extension band. While the recent rally shows signs of being extended, it has not yet reached a point of definitive exhaustion, pointing towards a “late-stage impulse” rather than a confirmed top. Overnight → London Session: The base case anticipates a sideways-to-moderately downward movement from the 6,790s back toward the support levels of S1/S2 (6,765 → 6,730). This move aims to address intraday imbalances without disturbing the overall market structure. Should liquidity be limited, there may be an attempt during the London session to trigger stops through today's highs, directing attention towards resistance levels R2 (6,805–6,815) ahead of the New York session's developments. New York AM Session (8:30–11:00 ET): Should robust data emerge—indicating a favorable economic climate with subdued core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and steady labor claims—this is likely to spark a rally through R1 towards R2/R3, targeting 6,810 and subsequently 6,847 as key upside magnets. Conversely, a negative surprise featuring weak growth, a troubling inflation mix, or a risk-off sentiment evident in the Beige Book later in the day could dramatically alter the market landscape, potentially driving a liquidation toward support levels S2/S3, or in case of an unexpected shock, even probing S4 over the coming 24 to 48 hours. In the near term, the expectation leans towards a gradual upward movement with shallow pullbacks, aiming for the 6,810–6,847 range. However, traders should remain vigilant for an increased risk of an exhaustion spike and a possible intraday reversal as this target zone is approached. A++ Setups for Tomorrow A++ Setup 1 – Trend Long from Retest of 6,730–6,770 Trigger: Price trades down into 6,730–6,770 (S1/S2 overlap) either overnight or on the 8:30 data flush. 15m prints a higher low and closes back above ~6,755, reclaiming the mid-range. 5m confirms with a clear reclaim and hold of 6,760–6,770, then a higher low on 1m. Entry Zone: 6,760–6,775 on a clean pullback after reclaim (not the first knife-catch wick). Initial Stop: Below 6,720, tucked beyond Y-VAL/LO.H and the pullback low (≈ 35–45 pts risk depending on your exact fill). Targets: • TP1: 6,810–6,815 (R2 / 1.272 fib). • TP2: 6,840–6,850 (R3 / 1.618 fib). • Stretch: 6,880–6,900 (R4 / 2.0 fib) if data and risk sentiment stay supportive. A++ Setup 2 – Exhaustion Short from 6,847–6,888 Trigger: Impulsive move into 6,847–6,888 during NY AM or early PM, ideally on or shortly after 8:30 data. 15m candle shows rejection (long upper wick) and closes back below ~6,847. 5m prints a lower high under that rejection high, and 1m fails to make new highs on retests. Entry Zone: 6,845–6,865 on the first proper lower-high after the rejection (avoid shorting the exact wick; let the LH print). Initial Stop: Above 6,900, beyond the 2.0 fib and psychological round number (≈ 35–45 pts risk). Targets: • TP1: 6,790–6,795 (R1 / NYPMH/PDH cluster). • TP2: 6,760–6,770 (S1 pivot band). • Stretch: 6,720–6,735 (S2 / top of value) if selling pressure persists.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Nov 25th)Market Outlook: Analyzing Technical Trends and Economic Indicators The recent rebound from the 6520–6450 support zone has generated a constructive short-term outlook. However, the market now approaches a significant supply area in the 6800 range. While the immediate trend appears to favor modest gains, contingent upon maintaining support between 6660 and 6645, a pivotal decision zone resides between 6765 and 6815. A strong acceptance above this band could trigger an upward movement towards 6855–6930, while failure to hold could lead to a corrective phase targeting 6690, 6625, and potentially 6550. Upcoming Economic Data: November 25 The week ahead is marked by a wealth of economic data expected to impact trading activity, particularly in the U.S. housing market and consumer sentiment. Key reports scheduled for Tuesday morning include the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for September, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November, Pending Home Sales for October, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. These releases, set for the 9:00–10:00 ET window, could introduce volatility into the markets. Recent trends in consumer confidence have suggested a dampened sentiment due to the prolonged government shutdown and slow job growth. A disappointing report could perpetuate discussions of recession and further Fed interest rate cuts, while an unexpected improvement would likely support the current risk-on sentiment. On the corporate front, pre-market earnings from major players like Analog Devices, Alibaba, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker, and NIO could further influence market dynamics in the early hours, especially if there are surprises in their guidance. Technical Analysis: Higher-Timeframe Perspective From a higher-timeframe standpoint, the daily chart reflects a completed down-swing exiting the prior weak high around 6930, retracting to the extension zone between 6525 and 6455 where buyers have demonstrated strong interest. This low now appears as a "strong low" in technical analysis terms, aligning with higher timeframe discount levels and previous demand signals. Oscillators indicate a shift from oversold conditions, currently suggesting a corrective rally rather than an immediate resumption of a downward trend. However, trading remains constrained within a 4-hour supply band between approximately 6765 and 6815. This range is characterized by the last notable lower high and previous sell-side momentum that precipitated the significant drop to 6520. Unless price breaches the 6815 threshold, the overall swing structure continues to reflect a "lower-high" scenario, which necessitates caution for any bullish positions as they occur within a broader corrective framework. Intraday Trading Dynamics: Expectations for the Day Analyzing the intraday structure on the 1-hour and 30-minute charts reveals that Monday’s trading culminated in a robust upward trend from the London low of 6625 to the New York AM low of 6646, concluding with a consolidation phase just beneath the Asia session high at 6724. The cluster of highs around 6715–6725 precisely correlates with an intraday equilibrium line situated just below the upper edge of the 4-hour supply band. Volume data indicates strong buying activity emerging from the base established at 6520–6625, tapering off as prices approached the 6715–6725 range. Further insights from the 1-hour oscillator hint at a cooling in momentum, suggesting that initial price reactions may favor mean reversion rather than an unimpeded breakout. Looking ahead into the New York trading hours: - Asia Session: Anticipate a trading range likely between 6700 and 6730, with potential stop raids above 6725 and minor retracements towards 6685. - London Session: If buyers can sustain the 6685–6660 level during potential pullbacks, this could establish a foundation for another attempt at reaching the 6765–6815 supply zone during the New York data release. - New York Open: Provided that the 6660–6645 area holds during 15-minute closes, the baseline scenario suggests a rotation into the 6765–6815 decision band between late London and early New York. A significant rejection in this zone, characterized by long upper wicks and unsuccessful 15-minute closes above 6815, would favor a pullback towards 6690–6710 by day’s end. Conversely, clear acceptance above 6815 on robust volume would pave the way for targets at 6855 and potentially back to 6930. Key zones Resistance zones: R1: 6724–6735 – Asia session high and intraday shelf, currently capping price. R2: 6765–6815 – 4h supply block and 1.272 extension on the recent down-swing; prior 4h lower-high origin; this is the primary A++ short zone. R3: 6855–6930 – Overhead daily supply with the prior weak high; if reached, expect heavy responsive selling on first touch. Support zones: S1: 6685–6660 – Intraday demand from the late-day push; includes London high at 6669.5 and prior structure; key pivot for the bullish case. S2: 6645–6625 – NY AM low and London session low; first real downside objective if S1 fails. S3: 6550–6525 – “Strong low” zone around the 1.272 extension; if this breaks on a closing basis the entire rebound thesis is likely wrong and the door opens toward the 1.618 around 6455 and even 6375. A++ Setup 1 – Short fade from 6765–6815 (Tier-1 rejection play) Entry zone: 6780–6805, leaning as close to 6800 as price action allows after the spike and stall. Invalidation / hard stop: 6827, above the 4h supply high and the 1.272 line; if price can close above there, the rejection idea is wrong. Targets and management: TP1: 6710–6690 (retest of intraday equilibrium and prior 30m shelf). That gives roughly 2R from a 6785–6800 entry with a 20–25 point stop. TP2: 6645–6625 (London and NY AM lows cluster). This is where you want the bulk of the remaining size off if sellers stay in control. TP3: 6550–6525 (strong low zone) only if macro tape turns risk-off; treat this as a runner target, not baseline. A++ Setup 2 – Long continuation from 6660–6680 (Tier-1 acceptance play) Entry zone: 6670–6680 after the sweep and reclaim; avoid catching the first knife if momentum is still heavy. Invalidation / hard stop: 6643, below the combined London low band; a 15m close below 6645 means the demand shelf failed. Initial risk: roughly 30–37 points depending on fill. Targets and management: TP1: 6724–6735 (Asia high / intraday range top). From a 6675 entry with a 30-point stop this is just over 1.5R; to keep the setup A++, bias toward entries closer to 6670 or take partials slightly higher, around 6740, where 2R is reached. TP2: 6765–6815 (4h supply band). This is where you expect strong counter-flow; plan to remove most of the remaining size here. TP3: 6855–6930 only if price slices through 6815 on strong volume and macro data support risk-on; in that case trail under 1h higher lows rather than using static targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 75 — 3/3 Win Rate on 4 Hours of SleepEnded the day +$234.68 trading S&P Futures. Running on just 4 hours of sleep, I knew I wasn’t operating at 100% this morning. The market open was showing mixed signals, and given how wild the action has been lately, I decided the smartest move was to sit on my hands. I waited until later in the session when things slowed down, found my spots, and sniped a few setups. I ended up going 3/3 on my trades and decided to walk away green before the fatigue set in and the market took it back. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6720 = Bullish Below 6705 = Bearish 📰 News Highlights *FED’S WALLER SUPPORTS DECEMBER RATE CUT, FED CHAIR TALKS
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES (SPX, SPY) Week Ahead Analysis - (Nov 24th - 28th)Executive Overview Equity markets, particularly the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), are currently navigating a broader weekly uptrend, yet have entered a phase of short-term correction after encountering resistance around the 6,900 to 7,000 level. Presently, prices hover near 6,660, finding support from a robust pocket in the mid-6,500s. Recent volatility indices have surged, with the VIX now in the low 20s and the term structure exhibiting a near flat or slight backwardation. Meanwhile, key credit metrics, funding conditions, and spread behaviors remain stable, suggesting that the current market dynamics are more indicative of equity valuation adjustments and positioning realignments rather than a sign of systemic distress. Looking ahead to the coming week, we anticipate a choppy trading environment characterized by two-sided price movements within a range of 6,520 to 6,780. Intraday strategies are likely to involve selling into strength around resistance levels R1 and R2, while seeking to capitalize on buying opportunities when prices approach support levels S1. Notably, the VIX is expected to remain elevated above its recent teens regime during this period. A critical point of focus will be the 6,520 to 6,540 support zone. Should this area fail to hold on a daily closing basis, we could see the correction extend toward the 6,420 to 6,450 range, with further downside potential targeting the low-6,300s. Multi-Timeframe Analysis of Market Structure Weekly Trend: Premium/Discount The current market structure remains characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The last significant upward movement peaked just shy of 7,000, while the ongoing pullback has managed to hold above the previous weekly higher low band, located in the high-5,000s to low-6,000s range. A notable supply zone exists from approximately 6,850 to just above 7,000, identified as a weak high. Below this, a robust demand/value area spans from around 5,850 (at the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement) down to approximately 5,575 (the 2.0 Fibonacci level) from the previous major leg. On this timeframe, the E-mini S&P (ES) is trading at a premium in relation to the substantial 5,800–5,900 weekly value area. However, we have transitioned from momentum-driven expansion to a mean-reverting correction phase. Daily Trend and Range Shifting to a daily perspective, the structure has inverted to a short-term downtrend, marked by a lower high established near 6,900, followed by a lower swing low around the 6,520s. Fibonacci retracement levels from the last sell-off align as follows: 1.272 at approximately 6,521, 1.618 at around 6,418, and 2.0 at approximately 6,304. The 6,520s zone is precisely where price action found support. For the upcoming week, the operative daily range can be defined between 6,520–6,540 as the lower band and 6,760–6,780 as the upper band, coinciding with the previous breakdown area and recent four-hour lower high. Four-Hour Structure Analyzing the four-hour chart reveals a clear downward impulse from the mid-6,700s lower high to lows in the mid-6,500s, followed by a sharp rebound. A Fibonacci sequence applied to this movement suggests retracement levels of 1.272 at approximately 6,527, 1.618 at around 6,455, and 2.0 at roughly 6,376. These levels coincide with a notable demand block around the 6,520–6,540 range, identified as a "strong low," with additional liquidity found in the 6,450s and 6,370s. The recent upward movement from these lows appears corrective within the broader impulse, indicating a potential lower high is forming under the 6,680–6,700 area. Until price reclaims and maintains this band, the four-hour swing remains in a down-to-sideways trend. Hourly Context From an hourly viewpoint, the ES experienced a decline from approximately 6,770 to the mid-6,500s, subsequently establishing a series of higher lows as it grinds upward. Recent hourly activity shows price pressing against an overhead resistance zone located around 6,660–6,670, just beneath the Asia Session high of 6,662.5 and the New York PM high / previous day high at 6,677.5. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is situated near 6,609.75, with prior intraday lows clustering between 6,594 and 6,611.75. Intraday, the ES is currently mid-range, confined between support levels at 6,640–6,642 (Asia Session Low) and resistance at 6,662.5–6,677.5 (Asia Session High / New York PM High / Previous Day High / Yearly Value Area High). Weekly and Daily Oscillators / Momentum The weekly oscillator has retracted from overbought conditions but remains elevated, signifying a cool-off within a strong uptrend. Conversely, the daily oscillator is currently oversold and beginning to reverse, showing readings in the mid-20s with the first uptick following a significant downturn. This pattern is classic for potential bounces; however, confirmation of a full trend reversal is yet to materialize. Key levels and zones Resistance (R-side) R1: 6,662–6,678 • Components: Asia Session High 6,662.5, NYPM High / PDH 6,677.5, Y-VAH also anchored at 6,677.5, plus a clear 1H/30m shelf. • Significance: This is the nearest control ceiling; it capped Friday’s rebound and marks the boundary between neutral intraday and more aggressive squeeze potential. • Role: First place to fade “pop-and-fail” wicks for short A++ plays, and the first area that must be decisively reclaimed for bulls to press a larger squeeze. R2: 6,760–6,780 • Components: Prior 4H lower high and breakdown zone; 1H HH before the large red impulse bar; sits just below a dense daily supply band. • Significance: A retest of broken support turned resistance. Acceptance back above here would suggest the entire recent flush was a failed breakdown, opening the path to retest the highs. R3: 6,895–6,945 • Components: 1H fib extensions 1.272 ≈ 6,895.75 and 1.618 ≈ 6,942.50, plus prior weekly weak high / supply band just under 7,000. • Significance: This is the larger-timeframe cap. Reaching this zone in one week would likely require either a decisively dovish Fed tone or very strong data. --- Support (S-side) S1: 6,520–6,540 • Components: Daily fib 1.272 ≈ 6,521.25, 4H fib 1.272 ≈ 6,527.25, recent swing low cluster and strong demand band. • Significance: This is the primary weekly pivot for the current correction. First major A++ long location if it’s flushed and reclaimed during liquid hours. S2: 6,418–6,455 • Components: Daily 1.618 ≈ 6,418, 4H 1.618 ≈ 6,455.50, plus a “strong low” label in that region. • Significance: This is deeper discount inside the current swing, where larger timeframe players would be expected to defend aggressively if the broader uptrend is to remain intact. S3: 6,304–6,376 • Components: Daily 2.0 ≈ 6,304.00, 4H 2.0 ≈ 6,376.25, lower edge of the current visible demand block. • Significance: If price reaches here this week, the market is in a full-fledged risk-off extension, but still within the context of the broader weekly uptrend. S4: 5,850–5,575 (weekly) • Components: Weekly fibs 1.272 ≈ 5,850.75, 1.618 ≈ 5,721.00, 2.0 ≈ 5,577.50. • Significance: True structural weekly demand; a tail-risk destination if macro or credit conditions were to deteriorate sharply. --- Volatility Backdrop The VIX spot closed at approximately 23.4 on Friday, having surged beyond 26 earlier in the week, marking the highest levels observed since spring. The VIX futures curve has shifted to a flat or mildly backwardated structure, with near-term contracts hovering around 22.9 for late November and extending into subsequent months. Meanwhile, rates volatility (MOVE) is situated near 78–79, close to its historical average, indicating it is not in crisis territory. The volatility complex is signaling a notable expectation of an equity shock, although it does not reflect panic in the funding or rates sectors. The flat to slightly backwardated volatility curve suggests potential for larger intraday swings and gap risks, while also presenting significant reward opportunities when market entries align with critical price levels. Options and Positioning The total put/call ratio currently stands at approximately 0.87, with the index put/call ratio around 1.03, and exchange-traded products (ETP) at about 1.28. In contrast, the equity-only put/call ratio is at a lower 0.56. The 10-day moving average of the total put/call ratio is approximately 0.90, which is not indicative of panic extremes. The SKEW index is around 148—elevated, yet falling short of the extreme levels (150–160+) that typically signal substantial tail-risk hedging. Institutional hedging remains present but lacks urgency; there is a distinct preference for put options in indices and ETFs, while single-stock options continue to skew toward calls. Coupled with a VIX in the low-20s and a near-flat curve, this indicates that dealers are likely moderately short gamma at current strike prices. Consequently, price movements beyond key levels may extend further than usual before reversion occurs. This inference, drawn from the volatility and put/call configurations, does not represent a direct measurement. Market Breadth and Internals Earlier in the week, the NYSE experienced a significant imbalance, with decliners outnumbering advancers by more than 3:1, alongside a higher count of new lows than new highs, a classic indicator of distribution. However, by Friday, the breadth reversed sharply, with approximately 2,237 advancers against 548 decliners on the NYSE. Nevertheless, the McClellan Oscillator remains negative (~-72), and the Summation Index is in a downward trajectory, suggesting ongoing repair rather than the emergence of a new bull trend. Defensive sectors, including health care and consumer staples, have outperformed, while tech and speculative AI stocks led the recent selloff. The market has transitioned from a clear uptrend to a choppy corrective phase characterized by distribution. The activity on Friday, while indicative of an oversold breadth thrust, has not confirmed a market bottom. Credit and Funding The high-yield ETF (HYG) is trading around 80.3, only slightly below recent highs, indicating no signs of disorderly selling. The US high-yield option-adjusted spread (OAS) is near 3.17%, and B-rated high-yield OAS is about 3.3%, both well below long-term averages (>5%) and only marginally above recent tight levels. Conclusion: Credit markets display relative calm, reinforcing the notion that the recent weakness in equities is driven by valuation and sentiment rather than a funding crunch. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning Recent AAII survey results indicate roughly 32.6% of respondents identify as bulls, while 23.9% classify as bears. This results in a negative bull-bear spread of about -11%, contrasted with a long-run average of +6%. The combination of an elevated VIX, a negative bull-bear spread, and moderate put/call ratios reflects a climate of pessimism without full-fledged capitulation. Practical Takeaway: There exists potential for an upward squeeze if macroeconomic headlines shift towards dovish sentiment. However, a prolonged risk-off environment remains possible if critical support levels like S1 and S2 break. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone Global equities experienced their most significant weekly pullback since early this year, with the MSCI World Index declining by roughly 3%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 recorded its largest weekly drop since summer, primarily driven by weakness in the tech sector and increased volatility. The cryptocurrency market is in a full risk-off stance, with Bitcoin dipping to a seven-month low before rebounding around $84k, accompanied by sentiment indicators reflecting extreme pessimism and heavy liquidations, now followed by a weekend bounce from oversold RSI levels. Relative Risk Tone: The Nasdaq-100 (NQ) remains weaker compared to the S&P 500 (ES), aligning with the decline in tech and AI sectors, while defensive and value-oriented sectors maintain resilience. Overall, the cross-asset narrative suggests a risk-off tone, yet not systemic in nature—exactly the backdrop where well-defined level trading is most effective. Macro and Data Calendar The upcoming holiday-shortened week is set to unveil a series of delayed U.S. economic data, including September retail sales, PPI, Core PPI, home prices, pending home sales, inventories, and consumer confidence on Tuesday, followed by jobless claims, durable goods, Chicago PMI, and the Beige Book on Wednesday. The prior government shutdown has postponed key GDP and inflation reports, heightening uncertainty around the Fed's December decisions. Federal Reserve officials exhibit divided opinions about another rate cut in December; some advocate for a pause with inflation near 3%, while others, including at least one governor and the NY Fed president, lean toward support for an additional 25 basis point reduction. Market odds for a December cut have shifted within a ~50–70% range, depending on daily fluctuations. Classification of the Recent Move: This market dynamic appears primarily as a reset in valuations and positioning following the exuberance surrounding AI and tech, exacerbated by data-related uncertainty rather than stemming from a definitive “data shock” event. 13. Two A++ setups (for the coming sessions) These are plan-level plays, to be executed only if price action and vol conditions line up as described. A++ Setup 1: R1 Rejection Short Trigger Inside NY AM or the first hour of NY PM: 1. 15m candle wicks above 6,670–6,675 and closes back under 6,665. 2. 5m prints a lower high beneath that wick, closing back below ~6,660. 3. 1m breaks down through the intraday shelf near 6,655 with increased selling volume / negative delta. Execution • Entry: around 6,660–6,665 on the first 1m pullback that fails under the broken shelf. • Initial stop: above the wick high, e.g. 6,690 (adjust to the actual 15m high but keep risk in the 20–25 point range). • Risk (example): entry 6,665, stop 6,690 → 25 pts. Targets • TP1: 6,615–6,620 (VWAP / prior intraday shelf) → about 2R (50 pts) from a 25-pt stop. • TP2: 6,540–6,550 (upper edge of S1 / prior congestion) – roughly 4R. • TP3 (runner): 6,520–6,530 (core of S1 cluster) – 5R+ if reached. A++ Setup 2: S1 Flush-and-Reclaim Long Trigger 15m candle flushes below 6,530, ideally tagging 6,520–6,525, with a long tail and closes back above ~6,535–6,540. 5m shows a higher low above the 15m wick low, with real bids stepping in and volume picking up. 1m pushes back through 6,545–6,550 and holds, turning that band into a floor. Execution • Entry: 6,545–6,550 on the first 1m pullback that holds above 6,540 after the reclaim. • Initial stop: below the 15m flush low, e.g. 6,515–6,520. • Example parameters: entry 6,550, stop 6,520 → 30-pt risk. Targets • TP1: 6,595–6,600 (local shelf / prior L at 6,594 and ONH/VWAP neighborhood) → about 2R (60 pts) from a 30-pt stop. • TP2: 6,662–6,678 (R1 band) – the same ceiling from Setup 1; that’s roughly 4R+ from the entry. • TP3 (runner): 6,760–6,780 (R2) if data and vol cooperate, giving 7R+ potential. If that microstructure doesn’t show up, downgrade each play from A++ to stand-aside – let someone else fight in the middle of the range and keep your capital for when the levels truly light up. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Weekly Market Forecast: Indices Are Weak! Wait For Sells!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of Nov 24-29th. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by RT_Money
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, PA Forecast, Setups Fri (Nov 21)Analyzing Today’s Sharp Market Decline The significant selloff observed today was not an arbitrary event. The day began with a robust rally following another impressive earnings report in the AI-chip sector, which propelled futures sharply upward and triggered a short squeeze in the Nasdaq. However, the release of a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report shifted the market's sentiment. While hiring showed signs of rebounding, the unemployment rate also ticked higher, undermining the prevailing narrative that the Federal Reserve would soon lower interest rates. This development served as a stark reminder of the ongoing restrictive monetary policy, coupled with slowing economic growth and exorbitant valuations in the tech sector. Major investment funds capitalized on the morning’s strength in AI and large-cap stocks as an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure. Additionally, systematic trend-followers faced compulsion to sell once the S&P 500 fell below critical support levels. The environment for high-beta assets, including cryptocurrencies, is already in a “reset” phase, which left little incentive for dip-buying at lower price points. As the E-mini S&P 500 futures broke through the previous day’s support levels, the situation escalated into a full liquidation. This perfect storm involved trapped long positions from the morning breakout, stop-loss orders falling into execution beneath yesterday’s lows, and mechanical selling, culminating in the largest intraday reversal since the spring. Market Outlook The current market sentiment is skewed bearish as the ES remains entrenched below the critical 6,660 to 6,700 range. The price is hovering near a significant demand zone established around the lows of the previous trading day and today’s New York session. While we can expect some upward bounces, these movements appear to be temporary rallies within an ongoing downtrend, rather than indicators of a potential new upward leg. Market Analysis: Is This the Beginning of a Downtrend or a Temporary Shakeout? In the recent developments within the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) on the daily timeframe, we’ve observed the formation of a distinct lower high following the recent all-time peak. This shift has seen prices breach the last identified higher-low area, establishing a new narrative. The sequence has transitioned from a higher high to a lower high, culminating in a movement into prior demand zones marked by increased volume, all while momentum appears to be rolling over. On the four-hour chart, the prevailing trend reflects a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent selloff has further entrenched this trajectory into the discount zone, now signaling proximity to the next Fibonacci retracement target below. While momentum indicators have already dipped from overbought conditions, they have not yet reached deeply oversold thresholds, indicating potential for another leg downward following any short-term corrective bounce. From a broader perspective, the long-term trend remains positive; however, a short- to medium-term corrective phase appears to be in play. Today’s market dynamics suggest we may be in the midst of this corrective leg rather than witnessing the final downturn. As prices have recently entered a significant demand zone, a bounce lasting one to three sessions—or a period of sideways consolidation—seems likely before any potential further decline. In summary, while current conditions favor a move towards lower prices in the days ahead, the market likely anticipates a "lower after a bounce" scenario rather than an immediate and steep decline. Key resistance zones Resistance is written as bands, not single ticks. R1: 6,589–6,600 This band sits around the current Asia-session high and the underside of today’s New York low. It is the first lid above price. If rallies stall here, the tape stays heavy and favors another test of the lows. R2: 6,634–6,658 This is the main breakdown zone from today, centered around the New York afternoon high and the upper edge of the late-session range. As long as ES trades below this shelf, the short-term downtrend remains intact and every bounce is suspect. R3: 6,760.5–6,791.25 This band covers the New York morning low-to-high range and the origin of the big sell leg. If price ever retests this area and fails, it is a prime region for larger swing shorts. Only sustained trade and closes above this pocket would suggest the current corrective leg is ending. --- Key support zones S1: 6,575–6,552 This is the immediate floor combining the Asia-session low, New York afternoon low, and prior-day value low. It is where we are effectively trading now. Expect reactive bounces and stop-runs here, as both sides are active. S2: 6,525–6,509 This is the next downside magnet if S1 breaks cleanly. It aligns with a fib extension and 4-hour demand. A decisive move into this region would represent the next step down in the correction. S3: 6,430–6,418 Deeper extension and prior higher-timeframe demand. If the correction matures into a more serious pullback over several sessions, this pocket becomes a reasonable medium-term downside destination. A++ Setup 1 – Short from R2 supply (continuation short) Direction: Short Entry zone: 6,638–6,648 SL (hard stop): 6,678 TP1: 6,588 TP2: 6,552 TP3: 6,515 Invalidation (structure): If we get a 15m full-body close above 6,675, treat the short idea as invalid and stand aside; market is likely shifting into a squeeze toward 6,700+ instead of extending the down leg. --- A++ Setup 2 – Quick-reclaim long from S1 demand (counter-trend bounce) Direction: Long Entry logic: need a flush then reclaim Entry zone (after reclaim): 6,562–6,568 SL (hard stop): 6,538 TP1: 6,610 TP2: 6,638 TP3: 6,660 Invalidation (structure): If price breaks below 6,552 and 15m closes stay below 6,545 without a fast reclaim, the bounce idea is invalid; then you wait for the deeper S2 zone instead of forcing longs here. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 74 — Surviving a 242-Point Crash MoveEnded the day +$450.40 trading S&P Futures, but I’m walking away feeling tilted despite the profit. We sniped the 48-minute MOB resistance right out of the gate—just as planned in last night’s video—but I never expected the market to flush 242 points from top to bottom. That is a "market crash" level move. My P/L was a complete rollercoaster, swinging from +$400 to negative and back again. I’m grateful to end green, but after a session this volatile, I’m likely locking my account and taking a mental break tomorrow. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Bullish Below 6710 = Bearish 📰 News Highlights BITCOIN FALLS 3% TO $87,000, LOWEST SINCE APRIL
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
2
A simple way to view multi time-frame analysisHere's another area many traders struggle with. The real value in using multiple timeframes is to know what to look for and when to look for it! As I have mentioned in a lot of my posts, all of this comes back to Dow theory; you don't need to make life hard on yourself. instead, simplify your approach and align a small number of timeframes and you will be surprised at the results. Let me give you an example; In this image above, you can see a clear push-up and a high, then a pullback. Why not use this high? It had a clear change of character to the downside. Well, the answer is - you would view these as separate timeframes. Although they are viewed on the exact same timeframe as my image. One you could call a primary trend and one a secondary. For a bit more depth, see this post. If you are already familiar with the idea, then the next thing you want to understand. What phase is the primary trend in? This becomes important as you drill down to the entry timeframes, as what you are trying to do is to understand a general bias. Once you grasp this, you can even trade the counter-trend moves (if you like). Ok, so with that being said. Let's add the second timeframe. As you can see, the orange line represents the primary trend, whilst the internal white path now represents the secondary trend. Why this is key, is because at this stage, the larger trend also could be doing one of two things. Going UP or DOWN. Up - Down - Once you understand the larger trend, the internal will work to facilitate the next leg of that higher degree. Of course, there will be reversals (but that's for another post). Working with an uptrend for the sake of an example; Price pushes up and then pulls back. If we know the ranges, I have covered this in several posts recently (mechanical). We can quickly identify the higher timeframe range. Once price breaks above this range, at some stage, you will expect to see a lower timeframe change of character, which is simply the start of a pullback on this higher timeframe. There are several ways to take advantage of this (again, another post). But working with this example. The first move above the range happened overnight or when you were not at your desk. You now have the information to work with the next phase. Assuming price is in a larger uptrend, you want to start to align these timeframes. This will be the case regardless of where in the move you are. These are only examples. This image above shows the trigger trend in alignment with the higher timeframe. This image below shows the opposite. Of course, there is more risk involved here as the bigger trend is going the other way, but as long as you acknowledge that, then opportunities will present themselves in both directions. Here's a few examples on where or how to use this. The second option is using the higher (secondary) not the trigger, but exactly the same concept. Finally, the third option is using all three of the timeframes. Firstly, you know the larger move is up. The second has started to align. Finally, the trigger trend (the minor) has it's change of character and you expect now the move to continue to the upside. This gives a higher risk-to-reward ratio and often it's a higher probability in terms of the outcome. For the simple reason, the two higher timeframes now agree. Some of the other posts connected to this one. Anyways! Take it easy. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setups for Thu (Nov 20th)Market Bias Analysis The current short-term bias is constructively bullish, yet it remains contingent on upcoming events. Recent momentum has been bolstered by Nvidia's exceptional earnings report and a significant intraday reversal in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). As long as the 6,670–6,680 range holds during any pullbacks, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. It is important to note that the broader daily trend is still bullish, unless we see a decisive breach below the key demand zone of 6,520–6,510 in the ES. Market Overview In a notable shift following a four-day decline, today's trading session exhibited a renewed bullish sentiment. The E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) printed a robust green daily candle, bouncing off a low of approximately 6,622.00 yesterday to close near 6,740. From a technical perspective, the daily chart reveals that the recent selloff has established a lower high without breaking the prior significant higher low. The reaction low remains comfortably above the daily 1.272 extension cluster situated around 6,521.25. On the 4-hour chart, the price action has transitioned from a pattern of lower lows to a new higher low, currently pushing into the Price Quotient Median (PQM) and Price Quotient High (PQH) band, just below previous 4-hour supply levels. Observing the 1-hour chart, today's trading reflected a definitive trend day upward, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs, culminating the session near the 1-hour 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 6,743.75. Macroeconomic factors played a crucial role in this market turnaround, particularly after Nvidia reported stunning Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, generating approximately $57 billion in revenue. The company’s strong AI-driven outlook and positive after-hours performance alleviated concerns that the recent downturn in technology stocks signified the onset of a broader unwinding of the AI bubble. This development contributed to a rally in index futures as the session drew to a close. Nonetheless, the overarching theme remains one of valuation pressures and interest rate concerns. Despite breaking a four-session losing streak, market participants are poised for tomorrow’s data, which will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory moving forward. Scheduled Events (Tomorrow – Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025) Tomorrow’s docket is heavy and directly relevant for ES: • 8:30 a.m. ET – September Employment Situation (delayed jobs report) The September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, postponed by the government shutdown, are finally released. This is the only full jobs report the Fed will have before its December meeting, and markets are treating it as a major verdict on the labour market. • Other U.S. data (during the morning/early afternoon) Various calendars flag building permits / housing data, regional manufacturing (e.g., Philadelphia Fed), and existing home sales clustered through the U.S. session – all secondary to the jobs report but able to add fuel if they confirm or contradict the labour story. • Fed speakers / meetings • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a scheduled fireside chat around midday (12:40 p.m. ET). • The Fed also has a closed Board meeting at 1:15 p.m. ET and a two-day Cleveland Fed financial-stability conference that can generate headlines. Net: the jobs report is the main event; Fed comments will colour the move rather than drive it on their own. Setups (A++ Concepts) These are two high-conviction, rule-style ideas you can plug into your own framework. Price levels are exact from your charts. A++ Setup 1 – Continuation Long from Value Pocket Entry trigger concept: Look for a sweep into the chosen band (e.g., wick into 6,690–6,695 or down into 6,663–6,668) followed by a strong 15m/5m bullish close back above 6,700. That shows buyers defending value and rejecting a deeper rotation into S3. Risk / invalidation: Structural invalidation if ES closes the hour below 6,652.50 (Y-POC) and cannot reclaim 6,668. In practice, a tight stop can sit just under 6,652.00 if entering from 6,690–6,705, or under 6,645.00 if using the deeper S2 pocket. Targets: • TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272) • TP2: 6,777.00 (1H 1.618) • TP3: 6,813.50 (1H 2.0) --- A++ Setup 2 – Short Fade from 1H Extension Cluster Entry zone: Primary sell pocket: 6,777.00–6,813.50 (1H 1.618 to 2.0 extension cluster.) Risk / invalidation: Structural invalidation above 6,825–6,830 (clear 1H/4H acceptance beyond the 2.0 extension). A practical stop can sit around 6,828.00 if entering inside the band. Targets: • TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272 / prior extension) • TP2: 6,683.50–6,690.00 (NYPM high / S1 top) • TP3: 6,659.00–6,664.75 (VWAP/value pocket S2) Narrative: If Nvidia’s beat triggers a euphoric push straight into the upper fib level but the tape immediately rejects that strength, the market is saying “good news already in the price.” This setup expresses the view that the real gravity is lower, back toward value and potentially into S3 if macro data disappoint.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 73 — Perfect Rejection at the 2-Hour MOB | S&P Futures TradiEnded the day +$529.40 trading S&P Futures. Today was a solid bounce back, with the morning analysis playing out almost perfectly. I managed to catch the top of the day and ride the momentum down right as we rejected the 2-hour MOB. It felt good to be in sync with the market structure, especially with the volatility leading up to the Nvidia earnings release. The signals were clean, the execution was sharp, and it was just one of those days where the plan came together. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Bullish Below 6710 = Bearish 📰 News Highlights NVIDIA SHARES JUMP 5% AFTER 4Q REVENUE OUTLOOK TOPS ESTIMATE
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 72 — AI Bubble Fears Hit the Market | S&P Futures RecapStarting to get a bit worried about the stock market. Everything feels tied to NVDA earnings this week, and we’re starting to lose major support levels across multiple timeframes. I took a few losses overnight, so I went into the morning a bit more hesitant and wanted to wait until the market slowed down before committing. I made some small profits trading off Bia's order and took a few scalp trades off the 1-minute MOB, which helped stabilize the day. This wasn’t a high-conviction environment for me, so I stayed defensive and focused on execution. 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow 🔼 Bullish Above: 6725 🔽 Bearish Below: 6710 These are the two main pivot levels I’m watching. Above 6725 we may see buyers regain control. Below 6710 the bearish wave accelerates.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Wed (Nov 19th)Market Analysis: A Shift in Momentum for ES In today's market, the daily chart for the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) reveals a notable shift in momentum, characterized by a sequence of price action that signals a potential downtrend. Previously, we observed a high, followed by a lower high, and today's movement has decisively broken through the last remaining support at the higher-low shelf. This change comes after a rejection from the recent lower-high zone, situated just below the 6,900 mark, followed by a retreat through the crucial 6,700 threshold. What initially appeared to be a bullish uptick is now consolidating into a corrective downswing. Today's significant drop marks the continuation of this emerging downward trajectory. Prices breached intraday support around 6,675 to 6,700, slid past the prior higher-low region near 6,635, and ultimately settled atop the initial daily demand zone. Notably, the selling volume during this decline expanded compared to previous sessions, underscoring that this movement reflects genuine market participation rather than mere fluctuations. While the longer-term outlook remains bullish, reflected in the weekly trend, the daily and four-hour charts currently indicate a pronounced short-term downtrend. Key indicators include the formation of a lower high, the breach of the previous higher-low, and a liquidity run to the downside toward the extension cluster. As we move forward, this developing bearish scenario suggests potential for further declines in the coming sessions, though we are positioned within local demand territory, indicating that bounces and two-directional trading are likely in the near term. Key Resistance Zones Resistance 1: 6,637 This level represents today’s late-session swing high on the 30-minute chart, denoted as the S-session high (S.H 6,637). It serves as the initial resistance point above the current market price. Resistance 2: 6,679.75 – 6,687.50 A cluster of highs, with NYAM.H marked at 6,679.75, LO.H at 6,685.75, and NYPM.H at 6,687.50, forms a critical intraday supply pocket. This region represents the primary A++ short zone should the price experience a bounce. Resistance 3: 6,700 – 6,720 Above the NY session high band, the 4-hour chart highlights a previously broken support shelf and local supply just below 6,720. Any movement back into this area would likely be corrective within the ongoing downswing unless the E-mini S&P can close and hold a daily candle above this range. Higher-Timeframe Cap: Any price action remaining below the recent daily lower-high zone—situated near the last significant LH before the drop—maintains a bearish bias for the larger swing. A definitive daily close above this lower-high would be necessary to negate the current short-term downtrend. --- Key Support Zones Support 1: 6,627.50 and 6,614.75 The AS.L level is printed at 6,627.50, with the NL.L around 6,614.75 on the 30-minute chart. Together, these levels form the initial local support shelf just beneath the current price. Support 2: 6,606.50 – 6,603.25 Marked by NYPM.L at 6,606.50 and NYAM.L at 6,603.25, this band serves as the next area of resting liquidity from today’s trading sessions. A clean break and sustained move below this range could pave the way for the Fibonacci targets below. Support 3 (Major Fibonacci Cluster): 6,541.50 – 6,509.00 On the 1-hour chart, the 1.272 Fibonacci level is found at 6,541.50, while the 4-hour chart places it at 6,509.00. The daily chart marks the 1.272 at 6,521.25, creating a significant demand box from approximately 6,541 down to 6,509, with 6,521 serving as a mid-pivot. This is the pivotal "bounce or break" zone. Support 4 (Deeper Extension Pocket): 6,501.75 – 6,458.00 The 1-hour chart identifies the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 6,501.75 and the 2.0 extension at 6,458.00. The 4-hour chart aligns the 1.618 at 6,429.25 and the 2.0 at 6,341.50, with the daily chart placing the 1.618 at 6,418.00 and the 2.0 around 6,304.00. The initial focus for tomorrow is the 6,502–6,458 region. Should the 6,541–6,509 band fail, this area becomes a strong magnet where a more pronounced short-covering bounce is likely. The definitive structural line on the downside is the cumulative daily 1.618–2.0 cluster, ranging from approximately 6,418 down to 6,304. A decline to this range could signify a major correction leg rather than a mere shallow pullback. A++ SETUP 1 — REJECTION SHORT FROM NY HIGH BAND Trigger: 15m: candle wicks into 6,680–6,688 and closes back below about 6,675. 5m/1m: a failed attempt to push higher (lower high) after that rejection. Entry: Aggressive: enter short 6,678–6,682 after the 15m rejection close and 1m fails to make new highs. Conservative: limit sell in 6,680–6,685 on a controlled retest from below. Stop (hard invalidation): Around 6,698.00 above the band and intraday highs (about 16–20 points of risk if filled 6,678–6,682). Targets: TP1: 6,637.00 (session swing high). From 6,680 entry with 6,698 stop ≈ 2.3R. TP2: 6,606.50 – 6,603.25 (NYPM.L / NYAM.L shelf), ≈ 4R from 6,680 entry. TP3: 6,541.50 – 6,521.25 (top of fib demand cluster), campaign-style extension. A++ SETUP 2 — EXHAUSTION LONG FROM FIB CLUSTER DEMAND Trigger: 15m: price trades below 6,530, tags 6,521–6,509, then closes back above about 6,530 (wick through, body back up). 5m/1m: a higher low forms above roughly 6,520 after that reclaim; sellers fail to push back below the cluster. Entry: Aggressive: 6,525–6,535 on the first higher low on 1m/5m after the 15m reclaim of 6,530. Conservative: limit buy near 6,525 on a controlled retest into the top of the cluster after the first reaction. Stop (hard invalidation): Around 6,497.00 under the bottom of the cluster and recent swing low (≈ 30–38 points of risk if entered 6,525–6,535). Targets: TP1: 6,595–6,600 (broken structure and local VWAP zone). From 6,530 entry with 6,497 stop ≈ 2R. TP2: 6,637.00 (S-session high and first major resistance). TP3: 6,679.75 – 6,687.50 (NYAM.H / LO.H / NYPM.H band), where a bounce can turn into a full squeeze. Upcoming Economic Indicators For tomorrow's trading session (Wednesday, U.S. time), traders should keep an eye on several key economic releases: - At 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. will release Housing Starts and Building Permits for October, along with import/export price indices. These figures are vital for gauging growth, especially after a series of subdued permits and erratic starts. - At 10:30 AM ET, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, alongside crude inventory data, is expected to influence energy markets and broader risk sentiment. - Later in the afternoon, markets will be attentive to FOMC minutes and remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, both of which could impact rate-cut expectations based on the overall tone relative to recent communications. Good luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex
S&P500 close to confirming the new Bear Cycle.The S&P500 index (SPX) broke below its 1D MA50 again yesterday (even closed the day below) and is showing clear signs of weakness at least for the short-term. This can't be ignored as it may be transferred to the long-term time-frames where the market has been forming a Bearish Divergence on its 1W RSI since October 27. RSI Lower Highs against the market's Higher Highs. This is similar to the November 15 2021 1W RSI Bearish Divergence, which led to one last quick rally and 1.5 month later the Bull Cycle topped and the 2022 inflation crisis Bear Cycle started. The signal was given by a weekly closing below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which has been the market's natural Support in the past 5 months and also during every major Bullish Leg of the Bull Cycle. As a result, if the index closes a 1W candle below its 1D MA100, we will call the start of a new Bear Cycle, potentially aiming for the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed after a -27.62% correction. Our Target Zone for the next long-term buying will be 5300 - 5000, assuming the top is already in. If not, the -27.62% decline will be re-adjusted to the new top. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
PRE-LONDON CONDITIONS — DXY Range-Bound, Yields Slide, ES HeavyU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds a tight 98.99–99.59 range in a third consecutive inside bar. U.S. 10-year yield drops ~1.01% in Asia. U.S. 2-year yield falls ~1.27%. S&P 500 futures (ES) extend lower toward the 6.571 fractal. Gold tests support after filling imbalance. Volatility remains elevated. DXY — Dollar Index Dollar stays inside 98.991–99.591. Inside-bar stack remains unbroken. Price sits near the 0.6 premium zone. Neutral until London breaks the range. Yields — 10Y & 2Y 10Y yield: -1.01% in Asia → long-end compression. 2Y yield: -1.27% → dovish policy tone. Curve: both ends lower → risk-off positioning. ES — S&P 500 Futures ES moves lower toward 6.571. Yesterday’s high-volatility expansion continues. Tone remains defensive. Gold — Safety Premium Gold fills imbalance and presses into support. Break = active safety flows. Hold = passive bid. Volatility VIX closed pre-London. Futures hold elevated regime. Conditions favor fast intraday expansions. Calendar Risk Medium-tier data ahead. Yesterday’s partial data production repeats → limited visibility. Expect flow-driven moves until major prints arrive. Execution View DXY bias neutral inside range. Yields down + ES down = risk-off. Gold support = key inflection. London expansion outside 98.99–99.59 sets direction. Trade second move, not first spike. Summary: Dollar trapped. Yields lower. ES heavy. Gold at support. Fragile pre-London environment; London’s first expansion defines the session. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
TVC:US02Y
by CORE5DAN
Survived a Market Selloff | +$241 Trading S&P Futures (Day 71)Ended the day +$241 trading S&P Futures, but it didn’t come easy. The market started off range-bound, and I traded the highs and lows cleanly — up $300 by 1PM. Then the bottom fell out, and I got caught in a false range break, watching my account swing from +300 to -500. Thankfully, I bought at BIA’s key support zone during the late-session recovery and clawed my way back. Today was all about staying composed when everything flips fast. Two takeaways today: Walk away when you say you will — extra orders can cost you. Range days can break suddenly; keep wider stops when volatility increases. Above 6820 is bullish, below 6782 turns bearish. We’re seeing signs of momentum fading, so tomorrow might bring continuation or deeper retracement.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Tue (Nov 18th)ES experienced a notable decline, concluding the day with a sharp downturn but managed a late-session rebound off a significant demand zone. At this juncture, it appears to be a robust corrective phase within an overarching uptrend, with a reasonable probability of a bounce or a range-bound trading day ahead, barring any unexpected developments from data releases or commentary from Federal Reserve speakers. Looking ahead to tomorrow, November 18, 2025, the economic calendar is unusually packed for a Tuesday, as various U.S. data are set to be released following delays caused by a government shutdown. Key indicators to watch that could influence ES during the New York session include the import and export price indexes for October at 8:30 AM ET, industrial production and capacity utilization figures also for October at 9:15 AM ET, and the NAHB housing market index for November at 10:00 AM ET. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Waller, Williams, and Kashkari, are scheduled to speak throughout the day. The market is particularly attuned to their insights regarding the likelihood of another rate cut, especially in light of the recently released October FOMC minutes and this week’s jobs report. Given the abundance of potential market-moving information, I would consider the period from 9:15 to 10:15 AM ET as a critical window for "headline risk" tomorrow. The recent market decline can largely be attributed to macroeconomic factors: The S&P 500 cash index ended the day down approximately 0.9%, with the Dow falling around 1.2% and the Nasdaq declining by about 0.8%. This pullback has moved the indices further away from their all-time highs established last month. The selling pressure was particularly acute among mega-cap technology stocks and the AI sector. Major players such as Nvidia, Apple, Palantir, and AMD faced heavy trading as investors began to question whether the recent surge in tech stocks, driven by AI enthusiasm, had outpaced underlying fundamentals ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday. Market sentiment was further dampened by a noteworthy prediction from Stifel's chief strategist, who suggested a potential 5% drop in the S&P 500, targeting a level around 6,350 in the coming months. This outlook was based on concerns regarding high valuations and uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s future policy as delayed economic data begins to materialize. Interestingly, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped slightly towards ~4.13% , indicating that today’s selloff was more of a de-risking/profit-taking maneuver specific to equities rather than a reflection of widespread risk aversion typically signaled by bond market movements. From a technical perspective on the ES futures: Intraday trading patterns reflected a continuation of last week’s trend of lower highs and lower lows. Prices faltered near the 6,800–6,805 mark during the overnight session before entering a clear downtrend through the morning. The volume accelerated during the late-morning selloff, ultimately reaching a low around the 6,658–6,660 band, which coincides with established daily demand zones. Following this drop, we observed a pronounced shift in behavior: significant buying volume surged at the lows, leading to a rejected price at that demand zone and a controlled short-covering rally back above 6,690, approaching the 6,700–6,705 range as the day closed. The Nasdaq exhibited a similar trajectory, with a heavy selloff subsequently followed by a recovery. Structurally, today’s activity reflects: A strong continuation of downside movement, stemming from last week’s lower-high structure and macro-driven de-risking, culminating in a liquidity flush into a previously identified demand pocket followed by short-covering toward the close. From a broader perspective, is this the beginning of a genuine downtrend? On the daily chart, ES remains within a larger uptrend originating from the summer lows. A higher peak above 6,900 was established in late October, with the current pullback representing a decline of approximately 3–4% from that peak. Today's trading reached the 6,650–6,670 support region, which previously served as a vital higher low space, before closing back above it. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over but are beginning to flatten, indicating they are not yet deeply oversold. In contrast, the shorter-term 4-hour and 1-hour views present a more bearish outlook: a sequence of lower highs has formed, and the retest of prior higher low levels appears to be underway. Short-term moving averages have shifted downward, and 4-hour momentum remains negative, albeit with initial signs of a slight positive divergence compared to new price lows. In summary: I interpret this phase as a significant corrective downswing within a larger uptrend rather than the onset of a new bear market. The potential for a more substantial correction exists, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings disappoint or if the run of delayed economic data proves weak. However, the day's trading indicates more of a necessary adjustment rather than the onset of a catastrophic decline, aligning with institutional views that this pullback signifies a "healthy reset" following a robust advance, rather than an indication of a market bubble bursting. Should ES close below the 6,650 mark on a daily basis and subsequently begin to print lower highs under that level, I would increase my assessment of the risk of a transition into a more enduring downtrend, with targets around the 6,350–6,400 range over the coming weeks, echoing Stifel's projections. For the time being, however, buyers continue to defend this crucial daily support zone. Key zones to monitor for tomorrow, in the futures market: I identify the following support zones: 6,658–6,650: This region marks today’s New York PM low and aligns with the prior day’s low. It serves as the first critical intraday support level. As long as ES maintains closes above this area on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, I consider the movement to be a corrective phase rather than a broader downtrend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex