S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/28 In our trading plans yesterday, we published: "The risk continues to be to the downside, so longs might want to be cautious; however, bears have to wait for their opportunity strike and not jump the gun". There was a little pull back - bears should not rejoice, yet. The question on everybody's mind - whether they...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/27 Almost as everyone and their grandmother predicted, the FOMC hiked another 25 basis points. With the FOMC faded into the background, earnings stories would continue to set the market tone until they begin to feel the bull run fatigue setting in. The risk continues to be to the downside, so longs might want to be...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/26 With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, today's FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Only some unexpectedly negative revelations/indications from Chair Powell today could influence the markets - otherwise, the FOMC release and the presser could...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/24 With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. Earnings so far this season indicate strong...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/21 Today being the Triple Witching Friday would likely lead to artificial spikes in either direction, leading to a choppy market action. Unless you are a professional trader or a long term positional trader, you might want to sit out today's market volatility. This week's earnings should shed some light on how the...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/20 Market action since yesterday's close indicate the potential for the "Irrational Exuberance" prevailing for the last few months could begin to settle down to economic realities ("potential", and "could" are the operative words there). This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/19 This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Early earnings so far indicate strong...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 07/18 This week's earnings should shed some light on how earnings are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Early earnings yesterday and today indicate...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/10 Markets seem to be searching for a direction, getting ready for the earnings season to kick off later this week. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/06 The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday, and the ADP jobs numbers this morning, and the consistent Fed speak...all point to more interest rate hikes (albeit at a slower pace) ahead and the rising yields are showing that the bond markets are bracing for that scenario. While the equity markets seem oblivious to...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/27 Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets, which could crescendo into the FOMC meeting next week. In our trading plans...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/21 In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/16 The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead. Weekly options expirations could be playing another factor today. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 06/15 The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/14 Our trading plans published yesterday mentioned: "...our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow". Today's FOMC decision is a "hawkish pause", giving an open case to be made for both the bulls and the bears, as expected. With this in the rear view...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/13 With the post-CPI spike and the subsequent early session market action, our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear,...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/07 The precarious rally of the last month has been baffling many, with the lack of the breadth in the rally was concentrated in just a handful of big-tech names. With the major news cycles in the rear view mirror, that red hot bull could be losing steam. If the rally does not dissipate this week, then it could be...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/06 The precarious rally of the last month has been baffling many, with the lack of the breadth of the rally while it still managed to keep going up on the run up in just a handful of big-tech names. With the major news cycles in the rear view mirror, the move up could be losing steam but if not then it could be...