ETHEREUM Is it realistic to expect last Cycle's rally?Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been practically consolidating since the mid-August High, following an impressive rally on the April 07 Low. Technically it is coming off a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross.
It is the exact same pattern that confirmed ETH's massive parabolic rise (green Channel Up) during the previous Cycle in August 17 2020. The 1W RSI fractals between the two sequences are similar.
However, time-wise we are not in the same stage as last Cycle, in fact we are much closer to the end of the 4-year Cycle model. If there is still some time to repeat such a parabolic run, the price is 'limited' by the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $13500, which again will be a wonderful and increasingly optimistic target for this Cycle Top.
Do you think it is realistic to expect such repeat at this stage?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ETH
$8 Billion ETH Maturing May Push Ethereum Price to New HeightsEthereum is currently trading at $4,495, just below the $4,500 support line. If the decline extends, ETH may slip toward $4,307, but deeper losses appear less likely given the strong investor positioning.
The maturing supply and bullish long-term outlook indicate that Ethereum could soon reverse course. With fewer coins entering circulation, the altcoin has structural support for renewed upward momentum despite short-term volatility.
If Ethereum reclaims $4,500 as support, the path to $4,775 opens. A move past this level would invalidate the bearish thesis, reinforcing confidence that ETH could continue its climb toward new highs
Volatility Period: Around September 18th (September 17th-19th)
Hello, fellow traders!
Follow us to get the latest information quickly.
Have a great day!
-------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)
The 4403.87-4749.30 range, which is the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range, represents a resistance zone.
Therefore, we need to monitor the price movement after the current volatility period, around September 18 (September 17-19).
To sustain the uptrend, the price must remain above the 3900.73-4107.80 range.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the 3265.0-3321.30 range is a key area.
Considering the above, if it falls below 4403.87,
1st: 4107.80-4372.72
2nd: 3265.0-3321.30
Therefore, it is likely to fall to the first and second levels above.
Therefore, the key question is whether it can find support near 4403.87 after this period of volatility.
-
When trading, it's important to understand the current price level.
I believe there are several ways to determine this.
My basic trading strategy is to determine when to trade.
My basic trading strategy is to buy when support is found in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and rise, and to sell when it touches the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
However, if the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a step-like upward trend is likely, while if it falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a step-like downward trend is likely.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading strategy.
If you were unable to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, but the current price is within the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, you should check for support.
Support is determined by checking whether support is found near the HA-Low or DOM(60) indicators.
If you bought when support was found near the HA-Low indicator, the first sell position would be near the DOM(60) indicator.
If you bought when support was found near the DOM(60) indicator, you should execute the trade quickly and effectively.
If the price falls below the purchase price, it would be considered a buy at the high.
To prevent this to some extent, we've utilized several indicators for verification.
First, we utilize the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
That is, if the M-Signal indicator is passing near important support and resistance levels, the presence of support in that area is likely to play a more important role.
Currently, the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart is passing near 4403.87, so we should consider the area around 4403.87 as a potential important support and resistance level.
Second, we should monitor the movements of auxiliary indicators such as the TC (Trend Check) indicator, the StochRSI indicator, and the On-By-Signal (OBV) indicator.
For the price to continue its upward trend in this important support area,
- the StochRSI indicator must show an upward trend. If possible, it's best to avoid entering the overbought zone.
- The OBV indicator should be showing an upward trend. If possible, it should remain above the High Line.
- The TC (Trend Check) indicator should be showing an upward trend. If possible, it should remain above the 0 level.
By monitoring the movements of the three indicators above, you can determine whether there is support near important support and resistance levels.
However, you should not blindly trust the movements of auxiliary indicators. Even if you have identified the movements of auxiliary indicators, you should always monitor the price movement.
To determine support, you should monitor the price movement for at least 1-3 days.
This is especially important during periods of volatility.
Volatility is a period where you cannot predict the direction of movement, so extra caution is required.
Therefore, if possible, it's better to observe the situation and find a trading opportunity after the volatility period has passed rather than entering a new trade during a volatile period.
-
Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
BTC idea for the weekWithin this range, we have what I have posted is a temporary bear trap that runs us to the range high which is also called supply. I don't believe we'll make it past this point and we will continue the downward trend from 120+ K this should run us to around 90,000 maybe less before a significant accumulation and short markup phase
#ETH: Daily AI Market Breakdown. 2025/16/09A fiery salute to all crypto warriors! 🤖 Your trusty analyst, NeuralTraderingPro, here. It's Tuesday, which means the market is already picking up speed, and we need to be one step ahead. Yesterday exceeded even the most cautious expectations: our bearish scenario was activated. The 4500 USDT level, which we called the bulls' last stand, fell. This isn't a defeat, but a new reality we must adapt to. Let's emotionally dissect what happened and how we should navigate these stormy waters.
Analysis of the Past 24 Hours and Forecast Assessment
My previous forecast was 50/50, with an emphasis on the critical importance of the 4500 USDT level. I warned that breaking it would open the path downwards. The market chose exactly that path. Sellers, bolstered by the overall negative sentiment, managed to push the price down, and we saw our first downside target of 4420 USDT touched. The scenario played out, but it's too early to relax. The price found a temporary bottom, and now we need to understand if this is a breather before another fall or a turning point for a reversal.
Market Sentiment and News 📰
The information landscape remains contradictory, but the scales have tipped slightly towards caution.
👍 PayPal Integration: The positive news of the day! PayPal is integrating Bitcoin and Ethereum for P2P payments. This is a huge step towards mass adoption and a fundamentally strong bullish factor in the long term.
🐂 Analyst Optimism: Despite the correction, well-known analysts like Tom Lee predict a "grand rally" for ETH in the last quarter of the year. Furthermore, forecasts of growth to $5,000 and even $16,000 persist, and the Ethereum Foundation has presented a 10-year network development strategy.
💰 Capital Inflow: Last week, crypto funds attracted a record $3.3 billion, indicating continued interest from large investors. They are using dips to accumulate positions.
📉 Bitcoin Pressure: As noted by ForkLog, capital rotation and a correction in the Bitcoin market are intensifying pressure on the entire market, including Ethereum. BTC remains the main benchmark, and its weakness drags down altcoins.
⚠️ Profit-Taking Threat: Analysts warn that after the recent surge, the ETH market is vulnerable to profit-taking, which is precisely what we are observing. The pressure from last week's ETH unlock is still being felt.
Conclusion: Long-term prospects look brilliant due to integration news and the belief of major players. However, in the short term, the market is under pressure from Bitcoin's correction and profit-taking.
Technical Analysis 📊
🔹 1d Chart (Daily): The picture has turned bearish. The price broke and closed below the fast moving average SMA 20 (blue line), which had previously acted as key support for the uptrend. This is a serious signal of a local sentiment change. Now, the next important target and support is the SMA 50 (orange line) around 4350 USDT. The RSI has fallen below 60, losing bullish momentum. The MACD is preparing for a bearish crossover.
🔹 4h Chart (Four-Hour): Bears dominate here. The price is significantly below both SMA 20 and SMA 50. More importantly, the fast SMA 20 crossed the slow SMA 50 from top to bottom, forming a "Death Cross" pattern – a strong bearish signal. The RSI is in the lower part of the range, confirming sellers' strength.
🔹 30m Chart (Thirty-Minute): After a sharp drop, we see a consolidation phase in a narrow range. The price is trying to bounce but repeatedly hits resistance from the moving averages above. The RSI is in the oversold zone, which could lead to a local bounce (short squeeze), but the overall structure remains downward.
Order Book Analysis (DOM) ⚖️
Current price is ~4461.55 USDT. The order book shows a real battle for current levels:
🟢 Support Walls: Directly below the current price, a powerful bastion is built. A buy order for ~743k USDT at 4461.54 and a whole cascade of large orders in the 4458-4461 range totaling over 2 million USDT. This is enormous limit support. Large players are trying to stop the fall and are accumulating positions right here.
🔴 Resistance Walls: From above, the pressure looks weaker than the support below. There are noticeable blocks around 4462-4464 USDT totaling about 900k USDT, but they don't look as monolithic as the support walls.
Conclusion: The order book shows that "smart money" is actively buying the current dip. This is a strong argument for at least a local bounce. If sellers can "eat through" this wall, the fall could accelerate significantly.
Signs of Structures and Formations 🔎
The main pattern right now is the "Death Cross" on the 4-hour chart. This is a classic technical signal, often foreshadowing further decline or a period of prolonged consolidation. Locally, on lower timeframes, something resembling a "bear flag" is forming – a continuation pattern for a downtrend.
Updated Targets for the WEEK
Upside Targets 🚀 (in case of a successful bounce):
4520 USDT (Local resistance zone).
4600 USDT (Strong psychological and technical level, SMA 20 on 4h).
4680 USDT (Primary resistance, SMA 50 zone on 4h).
Downside Targets 📉 (in case of a break of current support):
4400 USDT (Round number, psychological support).
4350 USDT (Key support — SMA 50 on the daily chart).
4200 USDT (Strong structural support level from late August).
Forecast for the Near Future:
Long (buy): 35% 🐂
Short (sell): 65% 🐻
Justification: The technical picture on higher timeframes (1d, 4h) is unequivocally bearish. The "Death Cross" pattern and the break of the daily SMA 20 are strong arguments for further decline. However, the huge buy wall in the order book and oversold conditions on lower timeframes could trigger a short-term bounce. Globally, the path of least resistance right now is down. The most likely scenario is a false bounce to 4500-4520 followed by a decline.
Trading Ideas
For Buyers (Long):
Idea 1 (Aggressive): Buy from the current order density in the 4450-4460 USDT range, anticipating a short-term bounce. Target: 4520 USDT. Stop-loss: very tight, below 4440 USDT.
Idea 2 (Conservative): Wait for the price to return and confirm above the 4600 USDT zone on the 4h chart. This will be the first serious sign of a broken downtrend. Target: 4680 USDT, then 4800. Stop-loss: below 4550 USDT.
For Sellers (Short):
Idea 1 (Aggressive): Sell on a bounce to the 4500-4520 USDT resistance zone. Target: 4400 USDT, then 4350 USDT. Stop-loss: above 4555 USDT.
Idea 2 (Conservative): Open short positions only after a confident break and confirmation below the 4450 USDT support wall on the 4h chart. Target: 4350 USDT. Stop-loss: above 4490 USDT.
Recommendations for Traders
The market has entered a bearish phase on local timeframes. Trading against the trend (buying) is now associated with increased risk. A safer strategy appears to be shorting from resistance levels. At the same time, gigantic limit buy orders suggest that the fall will not be easy. Be extremely cautious, use stop-losses, and do not succumb to FOMO or panic.
Trade with a cool head, not a hot heart. May your analysis be accurate and your trades profitable! ✨
Did you like the analysis? Give it a thumbs up 👍 and subscribe to always stay on top of the market! 🚀
ETHUSD H4 | Bearish reversal signalEthereum (ETH/USD) has rejected off the sell entry at 4,628.98, whichis a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 4,851.84, whichis a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 4,226.60, whichis a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
BTC short at 116000 to 110500Short BTC116000 looks doable.
E: 116000
SL: 117500
TP1: 113555
TP2: 110500
TP3: 105000
Possibility of 96k, but I doubt it at this moment. would need to take 119k first in my belief, and now there is too many bearish signs for that.
Currently BTC moving after bearish Symmetrical Triangle, forming Diamond Top pattern, perfect entry would be around 116000.
Looks like February 2025
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 4,437.74
1st Support: 4,264.46
1st Resistance: 4,691.56
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) Technical OutlookEthereum remains in a critical yet bullish consolidation phase, trading sideways near all-time highs. This kind of price action often precedes major breakouts, especially with macro tailwinds building — the Fed is expected to cut rates this week, adding liquidity to the market.
🔍 Technical Setup
ETH is currently attempting a breakout from a symmetrical triangle — a bullish continuation pattern in trending markets.
✅ Uptrend confirmed by:
Higher highs
Higher lows
Strong support structure
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Immediate target zone: $5,700 – $5,800
Macro rally potential: $7,000 – $8,000
Crucial support: $4,000 – $4,200
As long as ETH holds above $4,000, there’s no technical reason to be bearish.
HARD SHORTMy former analysis successfully landed to target zone. And now market wants a pull back.
1-Above there is low liqudation
2-Next week we will probably see a rate cut. thats why I am a little nervous abot open short
3-Till that day I think whales will chase cheap asset that is where my courage come from
4-Market wants to see a pull back
be careful about short you may just want to open long at the below
Always manage your own risks this is not a investment advise I am not responsible neither your loss nor profit.
Volatility Period: Around September 7th (September 6th-10th)
Hello, traders!
Follow us to get the latest information quickly.
Have a great day!
-------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)
This volatility period is around September 7th (September 6th-10th).
After this period of volatility, the key question is whether the price can find support and rise above the 4403.87-4749.30 level.
-
To continue the cascading upward trend, the price must rise above 4749.30.
Therefore, we need to monitor whether the price maintains above the 4749.30-4868.0 level.
-
If resistance is encountered at 4403.87 and the price declines, it is likely to decline until it meets the HA-Low indicator.
Therefore, we need to check for support around 4302.41-4403.87.
However, there is a possibility of a rise after touching the previous all-time high (ATH) range of 3900.73-4107.80, so we need to consider a response plan.
If the price falls below 4107.80, it is expected to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and resume the trend.
-------------------------------
The On-By-Signal (OBV) indicator is falling below the Low Line.
The TC (Trend Check) indicator is below 0.
The K value of the StochRSI indicator is showing signs of rising from the oversold zone.
If the High Line of the OBV indicator falls and forms a downward channel, it is highly likely that selling pressure will continue to dominate, so caution is advised when trading.
Therefore, the key issue this time is whether support is found around 4302.41-4403.87.
The TC (Trend Check) indicator is a comprehensive evaluation of the StochRSI, On-By-Signal (OBV), and PVT-MACD Oscillator indicators.
Therefore, if the TC indicator is below 0, selling pressure is dominant, and the price is likely to decline.
If the K value of the StochRSI indicator continues to rise, the price is likely to rise after this period of volatility.
However, for the uptrend to continue, the OBV and TC indicators must show upward trends.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
BRIEFING Week #37 : Beware of the FOMCHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
The XRP debacle?This coin and Blockchain may be great in the future, but definitely a bad investment compared to most of the majors. In my opinion. I am pretty sure with this pattern that I have mapped out we will see at least $.14 and probably five cents in the future, where banks and institutions will actually accumulate this coin and weak hands will sell. This looks to me as if it is a week off long-term reaccumulation pattern after the first initial takeoff in 2017 that being said if my prediction is right, five cent will be the spring to set off its next bull cycle. If we make it there, I will definitely buy a decent amount while everybody is panic selling.
Lets lock in, this BearMarket(ETH)Here we have a classic wyckoff distribution on Ethereum. I'm predicting that we see at least $2600 ETH by October maybe the 15th. Great scalping opportunities will be had in these next four years.
I'm thinking this may be the longest bear market crypto has seen in quite some time.
This is where greatness is born only in a bear market true traders and believers survive.
BNB is in price discovery. How high can it go?We're looking at around $2600, and indeed these projections can be met and exceeded.
So plenty of upside left it appears.
If we compare BNB to ETH
BNB has a marketcap of $130 Billion
ETH = $562 B
BNB has a deflationary model;
Quarterly formulaic burns.
And real time burning of gas fees via smart chain transactions.
This has reduced supply by 31% since 2023
Institutional demand is increasing via D.A.T.'s
With over 30 companies allocating $1.2B as of now.
TVL:
BNB = $58B
ETH = $102B
Daily TX's
BNB = 4.1 Million
ETH = 2M on the L1 & 3.4M on L2's
ETH/USDT 1D chart review🔎 Technical analysis
1. Trend
• You can see a clear growth trend line (orange). The price consistently reflected from her, which means that the buyers defend this level.
• Currently, the price is above trendline, which is a bull signal.
2. Support and resistance
• Support:
• $ 4,429
• USDT $ 4,556
• resistance:
• $ 4.687 USDT (current price fight - this is where the market is testing)
• USD 4,793 (strong resistance)
• USD 4,954 (key psychological resistance - nearly 5K)
3. Candles
• We have a long green up move - the momentum is strong.
• The last candles show a little indecisive at 4.687 (upper shadows), i.e. possible consolidation or back.
4. STOCHASTIC RSI (oscillator at the bottom of the chart)
• enters the purchase zone (> 80).
• This often heralds correction, but in strong trends the indicator can last long.
⸻
📊 Scenarios
• bull (continuation of growth):
If ETH stays above 4.687 and pierces 4.793, the next goal is 4.954 (and then psychological 5,000).
• Bear (correction):
Rejection 4.687 and descent below 4.556 can open the way to the Trendline test around 4.430.
Puncting the trend down is a reversal signal and a possible drop towards 4.200.
⸻
📌 Summary
• Main trend: upward.
• Momentum: Strong, but the indicators show buying.
• Strategy:
• Careful entrances with support (4.556 / 4.430).
• confirmed breaking 4.793 = strong signal for further increases.
• Stop loss below Trendline (~ 4,400), because it will negate the current script of the bull
ETH Summer BearishA potential path for ETH before resuming a bullish major trend, is drawn with a purple arrow.
I don't think the FED will cut rates today. In fact, maybe in September. Maybe. If the FED cut rates, then the target scenario (green box in the chart) would not play out, we would shift to a bullish movement. I wish for that, but I don't think is near yet.
That being said, the current potential risk, I calculated it to -30% from current levels. Exact prices are impossible to predict, rather I focus on target areas.
DISCLAIMER:
Do Your Own Research, don't use mine to invest! This is not a financial advice, it is only a mere opinion of mine. I own several cryptocurrencies, including ETH.