EURUSD Holds Above Support — Can Buyers Reclaim the Recent High?Market Structure
EURUSD remains in a broader bullish structure despite the recent pullback from its late-August high. After the sharp decline near the end of August, buyers successfully defended support and triggered a recovery toward the 1.1640 area. Price is now consolidating beneath resistance, suggesting the market is waiting for fresh momentum before choosing its next direction. As long as higher support continues to hold, the broader recovery structure remains valid.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Market sentiment remains moderately bullish. Although buying momentum has slowed after the latest rebound, sellers have yet to regain full control. Price continues to trade above recent swing support, keeping the possibility of another upside attempt alive.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers reclaim 1.1625 and sustain momentum above 1.1640, EURUSD could resume its recovery toward the next resistance around 1.1680. A breakout above that level would reinforce the broader bullish structure and expose the recent swing highs.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers break below 1.1590, downside pressure could increase toward the next support around 1.1570. A decisive move beneath that level would weaken the current recovery structure and shift momentum back in favor of the bears.
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Market Outlook
EURUSD continues to consolidate after recovering from the late-August selloff. Buyers have managed to stabilize price above key support, but stronger follow-through is still needed before the broader uptrend can resume. The next breakout from the current range will likely determine the short-term direction.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 1.1625
Second Resistance 1.1640
First Support 1.1590
Second Support 1.1570
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Future Scenarios
A sustained move above 1.1625 would indicate buyers are regaining momentum and could push price toward 1.1640 and potentially 1.1680.
However, if price fails to hold above 1.1590, selling pressure could accelerate toward 1.1570. Losing that support would increase the probability of a deeper corrective move before buyers attempt another recovery.
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Event Risk
EURUSD remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and central bank expectations.
Traders continue to monitor Federal Reserve policy expectations, European Central Bank guidance, U.S. inflation data, Eurozone economic indicators, labor market reports, and bond yield movements. These factors are likely to remain the primary drivers of short-term price action.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Any change in interest-rate expectations could significantly influence the U.S. dollar and generate increased volatility across major currency pairs.
Ultimately, price reaction matters more than the headlines. If positive news cannot lift EURUSD above 1.1625–1.1640, consolidation may continue. Conversely, if negative news fails to break 1.1590–1.1570, buyers may be preparing for another leg higher.
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Please share your view below:
Do you expect EURUSD to break above the current consolidation range, or will sellers regain control and push price lower?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. EURO STOXX 50: Bullish Structure Meets Major Resistance🌍 EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E / EU50) — INDEX CFD
🔫 "The Eurozone Blue-Chip Vault Heist" — Day/Swing Trade Setup
📅 Date: Monday, 07 September 2026 | London Time (BST)
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Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — Thief OG's
Welcome back to another high-precision operation run by The Market Heist Master. Today's target is the Euro STOXX 50 Index CFD — Europe's premier blue-chip battleground, housing 50 of the Eurozone's most powerful corporate titans. This is not your average playground. This is where institutions move billions, and where smart thieves know exactly where the vaults are hidden. Strap in, OG's. We're going in.
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📊 LIVE MARKET SNAPSHOT — VERIFIED DATA
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🔹 Asset: EURO STOXX 50 Index CFD (Ticker: EU50 / SX5E / STOXX50E)
🔹 Live Price (07 Sep 2026, BST): ~6,380 — 6,393 (CFD data; verify with your broker)
🔹 Session Open: 6,377 — 6,381
🔹 Intraday Range: 6,363 — 6,409
🔹 52-Week Range: 5,301 — 6,577
🔹 52-Week High: 6,577.20 (hit 11 Aug 2026)
🔹 52-Week Low: 5,301 (Sep 2025)
🔹 1-Month Change: -2.38%
🔹 1-Year Change: +18.97%
🔹 Year-to-Date Change: +9.27%
⚠️ CFD prices vary by broker/platform. Always confirm your live feed before executing any trade. The above data is sourced from OTC/CFD reference markets and is for analytical reference only.
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🎯 MY MARKET BIAS — THE HEIST PLAN
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📈 Bias: BULLISH (Day Trade / Swing Trade)
💰 Direction: Long / Buy-Side
🔓 ENTRY — THE VAULT DOOR IS OPEN:
You can enter the market at ANY level using:
• Limit orders at your preferred price zone
• Market orders on confirmation of bullish momentum
• Breakout entries above recent session highs
• Pullback entries toward intraday support clusters
There is no single "perfect" entry. The Thief Trader style is flexible — we adapt to price, not chase it.
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💸 GETAWAY TARGETS — TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN
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🥇 Target 1 (Scalpers & Day Traders): 6,480
🏆 Main / Final Target (Swing Traders): 6,550
🚨 CRITICAL ZONE ALERT — POLICE FORCE AHEAD:
The 6,550 — 6,577 region is a HIGH-ALERT DANGER ZONE for bulls. This area is packed with institutional resistance, overbought conditions, and historical price rejection. There is a significant probability of a trap and reversal setting up near the 52-week high cluster.
📢 Dear Ladies & Gentleman — Thief OG's: I am not recommending you to hold all the way to the main target. That choice belongs to YOU. Make money, then TAKE money — at your own risk and your own judgment. TP levels are reference points only, not mandatory exits. Manage your own trade like a professional thief — know when to escape.
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🛑 THIEF SL — THE ESCAPE HATCH
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🔴 Thief SL Reference: 6,300
Placed beyond the nearest significant structural demand zone and key technical floor. This gives the trade breathing room while containing downside risk exposure.
📢 Dear Ladies & Gentleman — Thief OG's: I am not recommending you to use only this SL level. That choice also belongs to YOU. Adjust SL according to your own risk tolerance, lot size, account size, and swing structure. Make money, then take money — at your own risk.
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📐 MY ANALYSIS — TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
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The Euro STOXX 50 has delivered an impressive ~19% rally over the past 12 months, printing a fresh 52-week high at 6,577 in mid-August 2026. Since that peak, price has pulled back approximately 2.38% over the past month, currently consolidating in the 6,363 — 6,410 zone — a technically relevant demand pocket.
Key observations from my analysis:
📍 The August high at 6,577 acts as the primary resistance ceiling — the "police barricade." A break and hold above this level opens significant upside but requires strong momentum and volume confirmation.
📍 The 6,363 — 6,400 zone represents a mid-term consolidation band and short-term demand. Price is currently hovering in this area.
📍 The broader trend structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 6,300 on a closing basis.
📍 Intraday momentum on 07 Sep 2026 BST is subdued and slightly cautious, with the index opening just above 6,377 and trading in a narrow 6,363 — 6,409 range.
📍 The 6,480 level represents the first meaningful overhead resistance within the current swing range — a logical first getaway point.
📍 The 6,550 zone converges with overbought RSI territory and the upper boundary of the recent distribution zone — a high-probability reversal and/or trap area.
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🔭 POSSIBLE SCENARIO — HOW THE HEIST COULD UNFOLD
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📌 Scenario A — Bullish Continuation:
Price holds above 6,363 — 6,377 support, builds momentum through the 6,410 — 6,430 zone, and drives toward 6,480 first getaway point. A clean break above 6,480 with volume could extend the move toward the 6,550 main target area.
📌 Scenario B — Consolidation Before Move:
Price remains range-bound between 6,363 and 6,420 during the early London session, digesting geopolitical and rate uncertainty, before selecting a directional break. Day traders may find scalping opportunities within this range.
📌 Scenario C — Bearish Risk / Invalidation:
A decisive daily close below 6,300 invalidates the bullish case and signals potential deeper retracement toward 6,200 — 6,150 support zones. In this case, exit long positions per your own risk management protocol.
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👀 AREAS I AM WATCHING — CRITICAL PRICE LEVELS
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🔷 6,300 — Thief SL / Structural Demand Floor
🔷 6,363 — Today's Session Low / Intraday Support
🔷 6,377 — Today's Opening Reference Level
🔷 6,410 — Intraday High / Short-term Supply
🔷 6,430 — Mid-range resistance cluster
🔷 6,480 — Target 1 / First Getaway Point
🔷 6,550 — Main Target / Final Getaway
🔷 6,577 — 52-Week High / Institutional Resistance Wall (Police Barricade)
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📚 EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWN — WHAT IS THE EURO STOXX 50?
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The EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E) is the Eurozone's flagship blue-chip equity index. It tracks the performance of 50 of the largest and most liquid companies across 8 Eurozone member nations — including Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain.
Key educational points every OG should know:
🎓 The index is maintained by STOXX Ltd, owned by Deutsche Börse Group, and rebalanced quarterly with an annual composition review each September.
🎓 The index is capitalisation-weighted with a maximum 10% weight per constituent — keeping it diversified across supersectors including Financials, Technology, Industrials, Energy, and Healthcare.
🎓 The EURO STOXX 50 is one of the most liquid equity indices in the world. Futures and options on this index, traded on Eurex (FESX), rank among the highest-volume derivative instruments in Europe.
🎓 Major index constituents include names like ASML, TotalEnergies, LVMH, SAP, Siemens, BNP Paribas, Santander, Airbus, Infineon, and UniCredit — all sector heavyweights.
🎓 When trading the EU50/STOXX50 CFD, you are getting exposure to the combined performance of Eurozone's biggest corporate engines. Macro events in Europe — ECB rate decisions, GDP data, energy prices, geopolitical developments — directly drive this index.
🎓 The Thief Trader principle here: this is a macro-sensitive, institutionally-dominated instrument. Be aware of event risk, especially around ECB meeting weeks. Trade size accordingly.
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🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH — WITH USD PRICES
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These instruments share a strong directional and/or macro correlation with the EURO STOXX 50. Monitor them alongside your EU50 position for confirmation and divergence signals.
📌 GER40 / DAX 40 (Germany 40 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~26,026 — 26,046 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: STRONG POSITIVE — Germany's DAX 40 is the most heavily weighted contributor nation within the Eurozone blue-chip complex. When the DAX trends, the STOXX 50 typically follows. DAX dropped 0.08% — 0.14% today, reflecting the same cautious tone as EU50. If DAX recovers intraday, expect EU50 to respond in kind. Watch the 26,000 level as structural support.
📌 CAC 40 (France 40 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~8,279 — 8,284 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: STRONG POSITIVE — France is the second-largest contributor to the EURO STOXX 50 by weighting, hosting luxury, energy, and banking giants like LVMH, TotalEnergies, and BNP Paribas. CAC 40 moved -0.06% to -0.09% today. A divergence where CAC gains while DAX falls — or vice versa — can signal sector rotation rather than a broad index move. Track both.
📌 FTSE 100 (UK 100 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~10,810 — 10,831 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: MODERATE POSITIVE — The FTSE 100 is a pan-European risk-appetite barometer. While the UK is not part of the Eurozone, FTSE sentiment echoes across European equity markets, particularly during risk-off or risk-on macro shifts. FTSE 100 opened -0.12% to -0.2% lower today, reflecting the same cautious London session tone. If FTSE stabilises or recovers, it provides a supportive backdrop for the EU50.
📌 S&P 500 (US500 / SPX500 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~7,718 — 7,747 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: MODERATE-STRONG POSITIVE — The S&P 500 sets the global risk-appetite tone during the US session. A strong Wall Street close typically carries over into European morning sentiment. The S&P 500 dropped -0.38% on Friday (05 Sep 2026) following the hot US payroll print, which pressured risk assets globally including European equities. Watch for US futures direction during London afternoon hours — it directly influences EU50 late-session price action.
📌 EUR/USD (The Fiber)
💵 Live Rate: ~1.1614 — 1.1626 (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: COMPLEX / INVERSE-TO-MIXED — A stronger EUR typically signals broad Eurozone confidence and can support European equities. However, an excessively strong EUR raises export competitiveness concerns for STOXX 50 multinationals. Today EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.16 handle, trading in a narrow range of 1.1585 — 1.1633. The EUR came under pressure after the stronger US payroll data revived Fed rate hike expectations. A EUR/USD hold above 1.1585 supports the neutral-to-bullish Eurozone risk narrative.
📌 Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD / BCOUSD)
💵 Live Price: ~$96.97 — $97.00 per barrel (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: DUAL IMPACT — Higher oil prices benefit energy majors within the STOXX 50 (TotalEnergies, ENI, Repsol), which can push the index higher. However, persistently elevated oil also drives inflation, raising ECB rate hike pressure, which is a headwind for valuation and sentiment. The US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent toward $97 this week. Watch this carefully — energy sector tailwind vs. macro rate headwind.
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🌐 FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS — NEUTRAL MARKET VIEW
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The following represents an objective summary of what the market and major economic data are currently reflecting. This section is NOT filtered to support the bullish trade direction — it reflects both positive and negative factors exactly as the market is pricing them.
🏦 ECB MONETARY POLICY:
The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points in June 2026, the first rate hike in nearly three years, taking the rate to 2.25%. This move was driven by rising energy prices related to the US-Iran conflict pushing Eurozone inflation to 3.2%. The ECB held rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting but explicitly signalled a September hike remains firmly on the table. Money markets are fully pricing in another 25bp hike at the upcoming ECB meeting (expected 10 September 2026), which would take the deposit rate to 2.50%. Markets also price the deposit rate reaching 3.00% by mid-2027. Rate hikes increase borrowing costs for corporates within the STOXX 50 universe and can apply valuation pressure to equities. This is a meaningful headwind to monitor.
📉 EUROZONE ECONOMIC GROWTH:
The Eurozone's Q1 2026 GDP contracted by -0.2% quarter-on-quarter, raising concerns of stagflation — a combination of weak growth and elevated inflation. Full-year 2026 GDP is projected at just 0.9% by the ECB's own Survey of Professional Forecasters, a downward revision driven by higher energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Weak growth fundamentals are a negative macro backdrop for European equities overall.
📈 EUROZONE INFLATION:
Headline CPI for the Eurozone rose to 3.2% — the highest reading since 2023. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) climbed to 2.5% in May 2026. The ECB projects headline inflation to average 3.0% for full-year 2026, declining to 2.3% in 2027 and returning to the 2.0% target in 2028. Persistent inflation above target keeps rate hike pressure alive, maintaining a contractionary monetary policy environment for Eurozone equities.
🌍 GEOPOLITICAL RISK — US-IRAN CONFLICT:
The ongoing US-Iran military confrontation has been the dominant macro risk driver in 2026. It has pushed Brent crude close to $97/barrel and introduced sustained energy price volatility. This is simultaneously inflating production costs for STOXX 50 corporates and stimulating upside in energy sector constituents. The conflict also adds a layer of political and supply-chain uncertainty that has weighed on investor confidence across European markets.
🇩🇪 GERMAN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:
Exit polls from Saxony-Anhalt state elections on 07 Sep 2026 indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has placed first, delivering a historic result. This outcome is a setback for Chancellor Merz's CDU, which recorded its worst result in Saxony-Anhalt since German reunification. German 10-year Bund yields edged higher in response, and the news added a cautious political overlay to European equity market sentiment on today's open. Political fragmentation within Germany — the Eurozone's largest economy — carries medium-term implications for EU fiscal coordination and growth investment.
🇺🇸 US EMPLOYMENT DATA — SPILLOVER EFFECT:
US Non-Farm Payrolls for August 2026 came in at +162,000 — significantly above the consensus forecast of approximately +65,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. This strong jobs print revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates again in September, pushing the S&P 500 lower (-0.38%) and Treasury yields higher on 05 Sep 2026. Elevated US rate expectations tend to strengthen the USD and apply downward pressure on risk assets globally, including European indices.
🏭 GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS:
Germany's factory orders for July 2026 rose +2.5%, exceeding market expectations of +0.3%, though easing from the +3.7% upwardly revised June reading. This is a modest positive data point for the German industrial sector and is supportive of the index at the margin, though it is insufficient on its own to offset the rate hike headwinds.
📊 SECTOR PERFORMANCE (TODAY, 07 SEP 2026 BST):
• Energy sector is trading positive, led by TotalEnergies (+1.6%) — oil price tailwind
• Technology sector mixed — ASML +1.2%, Infineon +1.8%
• Financials mixed — BNP Paribas and ING in the green, UniCredit and Santander slightly lower
• Healthcare under pressure — Novartis fell 3%+ after a cholesterol drug trial disappointment
• Automotive sector remains a bright spot within the broader DAX and by extension EU50
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📅 HIGH-IMPACT ECONOMIC CALENDAR — LONDON TIME (BST)
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The following upcoming events carry potential to move the EURO STOXX 50 significantly. Plan your trade management around these windows.
📌 Monday, 07 September 2026
• European equity markets open (08:00 BST) — Index already trading cautiously lower on geopolitical and rate concerns
📌 This Week (Week of 07 — 12 September 2026):
⚡ ECB Monetary Policy Decision (Expected: Thursday, 10 September 2026)
— Markets fully pricing in a 25bp rate hike to 2.50%
— ECB press conference by President Lagarde to follow
— This is THE event risk of the week for EU50. High volatility expected around announcement time (typically 13:15 — 14:30 BST for decision and presser)
⚡ Eurozone Q2 2026 GDP Final Reading
— Second estimate due this week; any revision versus preliminary figure could trigger index moves
⚡ US CPI Inflation Data (Mid-week)
— Critical for global risk sentiment — particularly relevant for Fed rate hike probability in September and USD strength direction
⚡ Eurozone Employment Changes — Q2 Final Data
— Labour market resilience vs. weakness will feed into ECB commentary tone
⚡ Germany / France Composite PMI Updates
— Eurozone business activity health indicators tracking closely in current environment
⚠️ Trading around scheduled high-impact events carries amplified risk. Widen SL or reduce position size ahead of ECB decision if holding multi-day positions.
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🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER MOTIVATION — OG WISDOM VAULT
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"In this market, the greatest heist isn't grabbing every pip from entry to target — it's knowing exactly when to walk out the door with what you came for. The Thief who survives is not the most greedy one. It's the most disciplined one."
"Every candle on this chart is a clue. Every zone is a door. Your job is not to predict the future — your job is to read the evidence, enter the vault at the right moment, take your profits with precision, and vanish before the market turns against you. That is the art of the Thief Trader."
"The police barricade at 6,550 — 6,577 is there for a reason, OG's. The market placed it. Institutions built it. It does not exist to stop you permanently — it exists to test your patience and your greed. Respect the resistance. Let price show you whether it will break or reverse. Then act."
"Risk is not the enemy. Unmanaged risk is. Set your levels. Trust your plan. Protect the bag."
"Remember — in this heist crew, we make money together, we take money together, and we live to trade another day. That is the Thief OG code."
— The Market Heist Master 🦹♂️🎯 
Long
EUR/USD 2H — Professional Market Structure Analysis 📊 EUR/USD 2H — Professional Market Structure Analysis 📈
🔎 Overall Market Bias: Bearish 🔴
EUR/USD is currently showing a clear bearish market structure on the 2H timeframe. After the strong bullish expansion from the lower levels, price reached the 1.1700–1.1720 resistance area and faced strong rejection. Since then, the market has been forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are gradually gaining control.
📉 Market Structure
Price previously traded inside a bullish channel, but the structure changed after the Break of Structure (BOS) around the 1.1600 area. Following this shift, price started respecting a descending bearish channel.
The recent recovery from around 1.1570 has pushed price back toward the upper portion of the bearish structure, but the move currently looks more like a retracement than a confirmed bullish reversal.
🧱 Key Resistance / Order Block
The main resistance zone is approximately:
1.1660 – 1.1680 🟥
This area is marked as an Order Block and sits close to the descending channel resistance. If price reaches this zone and shows rejection, bearish momentum could resume.
A stronger resistance level is around 1.1700–1.1720, where previous highs were formed.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
If price gets rejected from 1.1660–1.1680, the potential downside path is:
TP1: 1.1600 🎯
TP2: 1.1580 🎯
TP3: 1.1540 🎯
Major Support: 1.1502 🧱
A clean break below 1.1580 could increase the probability of a deeper move toward the 1.1540–1.1502 support region.
🟢 Bullish Invalidation
The bearish setup would become weaker if price produces a strong 2H breakout and holds above 1.1680–1.1700.
A sustained move above this area could invalidate the immediate bearish structure and potentially send price toward the previous high around 1.1720.
⚠️ Trading Confirmation
Rather than selling immediately, the stronger approach is to wait for confirmation around the 1.1660–1.1680 Order Block:
🔻 Rejection + bearish candle → bearish continuation
🔻 Lower high → stronger sell confirmation
🔻 Break below 1.1600 → momentum confirmation
🟢 Strong breakout above 1.1680–1.1700 → bearish setup weakened
🧠 Final View
EUR/USD 2H remains bearish while price stays below the 1.1680–1.1700 resistance zone. The current move upward appears to be a retracement into resistance. A confirmed rejection from the Order Block could open the way toward 1.1580 → 1.1540 → 1.1502.
📌 Bias: 🔴 SELL ON CONFIRMATION
📍 Resistance: 1.1660–1.1680
🎯 Targets: 1.1580 → 1.1540 → 1.1502
🛑 Invalidation: Above 1.1700–1.1720
⚡ Key Structure: Bearish channel + lower highs + resistance Order Block EURUSD Reclaims Key Resistance — StructureBreakouts catch retail attention, but retests test institutional belief.
OANDA:EURUSD EURUSD has executed a clean structural breakout, clearing the major daily resistance level that held the pair down for weeks.
Price is now pulling back toward the newly established support zone inside a controlled corrective channel.
The Economic Divergence
The macroeconomic backdrop presents an interesting tug-of-war.
The Eurozone continues to struggle with sluggish economic growth, particularly in manufacturing. However, the US Dollar is facing broader selling pressure as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts intensify amid cooling US inflation.
Upcoming high-impact catalysts: US CPI/NFP reports and upcoming ECB & Fed interest rate decisions over the coming weeks will dictate the next macro leg.
The Technical Setup
Rather than chasing the initial breakout, we are monitoring the market's reaction at the Support Area (Pullback Zone) around 1.1570 – 1.1600.
If price action shows confirmation inside this zone (rejection wicks, loss of downside momentum, or bullish engulfing candles on 4H close), the structure favors a continuation higher.
Short-Term Target: 1.172
Mid-Term Target: 1.190
Invalidation Level: 1.154
If price closes below 1.154, the breakout structure has failed, and the setup is invalidated immediately. We step aside and reassess without emotion.
Patience comes before execution. Let the retest complete.
Risk Warning:
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Foreign exchange trading carries high financial risk. Always manage your risk strictly and use proper position sizing. EURUSD Drops Into Key Support — Can Buyers Defend the Uptrend?Market Structure
EURUSD remains within a broader bullish structure despite the latest sharp selloff. The recent decline broke below the short-term consolidation range, but price is now testing an important demand area where buyers previously stepped in. As long as the current support zone holds, the larger sequence of higher lows remains valid, although short-term momentum has clearly weakened.
Market Sentiment - Neutral to Moderately Bullish
The recent bearish impulse has cooled market optimism, but buyers have already shown an initial response near support. Sentiment remains cautious as traders wait to see whether this move develops into a rebound or a deeper correction.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers successfully defend the first support and reclaim the first resistance, bullish momentum could gradually return and open the way toward the second resistance, suggesting that the recent decline was only a corrective pullback.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers break below the first support, downside momentum could accelerate toward the second support, increasing the probability of a deeper correction within the broader trend.
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Market Outlook
The recent decline appears to be a corrective move rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Price is currently attempting to stabilize around an important support area, and the next directional move will likely depend on whether buyers can quickly regain nearby resistance.
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Key Levels
First Resistance 1.1610
Second Resistance 1.1660
First Support 1.1580
Second Support 1.1540
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Future Scenarios
A sustained move above 1.1610 would suggest buyers are regaining control and could expose 1.1660, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
However, if price closes below 1.1580, selling pressure could intensify toward 1.1540 before stronger buying interest emerges.
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Event Risk
EURUSD remains highly sensitive to both Eurozone and U.S. macroeconomic developments.
Market participants continue to monitor Federal Reserve policy expectations, European Central Bank guidance, inflation data, labor-market reports, PMI releases, GDP growth, Treasury yields, and overall U.S. Dollar strength. Any meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations could quickly influence the pair.
The next confirmed major macro event is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16, 2026. Changes in interest-rate expectations could affect EURUSD through yield differentials, U.S. Dollar demand, and broader market risk sentiment.
Ultimately, price reaction matters more than the headline itself. If positive news cannot lift EURUSD above 1.1610–1.1660, bullish expectations may already be priced in. Conversely, if negative news fails to break 1.1580–1.1540, selling momentum may be fading and buyers could gradually regain control.
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Do you think EURUSD is simply completing a healthy pullback before resuming its uptrend, or is this the beginning of a larger bearish reversal?
EUR/USD 2H — Bearish Breakdown & FVG Retest Setup📊 EUR/USD 2H — Bearish Breakdown & FVG Retest Setup 🔻
EUR/USD is showing a clear shift toward short-term bearish momentum after breaking below the previously established bearish channel. The recent impulsive sell-off suggests that sellers have gained control, but after such a sharp move, a retracement into the marked Fair Value Gap (FVG) could occur before the next directional move.
🔻 Market Structure
Price spent several sessions trading inside a descending bearish channel, creating lower highs while gradually moving lower. The latest strong bearish displacement pushed price below the lower boundary of the channel, indicating increased selling pressure.
The breakdown is significant because price also moved away rapidly from the 1.1600 area, leaving the marked imbalance/FVG behind.
🎯 Key FVG Zone
The highlighted FVG around 1.1590–1.1615 is the main area to watch.
A possible scenario is:
Bearish impulse → retracement into FVG → rejection → continuation lower
However, the FVG should not automatically be treated as an entry. Waiting for bearish confirmation inside or around the zone can provide a more structured setup.
📉 Bearish Scenario
If EUR/USD retraces into the 1.1590–1.1615 FVG and sellers defend the area, the price could resume its downside movement.
Potential downside objective:
🎯 1.1535–1.1540 — marked Order Block
This area is important because it represents the next major demand/order-block zone visible on the chart.
🛑 Invalidation
The bearish idea would become weaker if price strongly reclaims the FVG and establishes acceptance above approximately 1.1615–1.1620.
A clean bullish recovery above this region would require reassessing the bearish continuation scenario rather than forcing a short position.
🧠 Trade Plan
Bias: 🔴 Bearish
POI: 1.1590–1.1615 FVG
Confirmation: Bearish rejection / lower-timeframe structure shift
Target: 1.1535–1.1540 Order Block
Invalidation: Sustained move above 1.1615–1.1620
Risk: 📏 Keep position size controlled and define risk before entry.
⚠️ Important
This is a technical-analysis scenario, not a guaranteed prediction. The marked levels are based only on the structure visible in the provided 2H chart. Price can invalidate the setup at any time, so confirmation and proper risk management remain essential.
🔥 Final View
EUR/USD remains bearish while price stays below the 1.1615–1.1620 region. The preferred scenario is a retracement toward the FVG followed by bearish confirmation, with the 1.1535–1.1540 Order Block as the main downside area of interest.
🔴 Bearish below 1.1620 | ⏳ Wait for FVG reaction | 🎯 1.1535–1.1540 Fundamental Market Analysis for August 28, 2026 EURUSDThe euro begins the European session near weekly lows as the market approaches Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech with heightened attention to inflation risks in the US. Several Fed officials recently reiterated the need to maintain a firm stance on price pressures, and the probability of a rate hike by year-end has increased. This supports the dollar and limits EURUSD recovery.
The local backdrop for the euro appears more mixed. Market participants are awaiting fresh data on inflation and economic activity in France, which could adjust expectations for the ECB. However, until their publication, the European currency lacks a new confirmed driver capable of outweighing the dollar's strength. At the same time, current ECB policy expectations provide some support for the euro, but they do not yet change the overall balance of the current session.
The key factor remains the market's reaction to signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole. If Warsh confirms the priority of fighting inflation and does not soften rate expectations, demand for the dollar is likely to persist. A softer rhetoric would pose a risk to this scenario, but until such a signal appears, the basic fundamental backdrop remains in favor of further EURUSD decline.
Trading idea: SELL 1.16500, SL 1.16800, TP 1.15750 Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2026 EURUSDThe euro remains near its highest levels since late May, supported primarily by US dollar weakness. The US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated securities has eased pressure on this segment of the market and pushed long-term yields lower. For EURUSD, this reduces the US dollar’s relative advantage, although part of the move has already been realized following yesterday’s advance.
The euro-area backdrop is also not preventing further euro strength. The market continues to price in the possibility of another ECB rate increase in the autumn amid persistent inflationary pressure and resilience in the regional economy. At the same time, expectations remain balanced: the Federal Reserve minutes showed that many participants would consider further tightening if US inflation does not continue to decline.
For the current session, the key question is whether the dollar can recover after its sharp weakening. For now, lower long-term US Treasury yields and continued demand for the European currency keep EURUSD supported. New US data could alter the market’s assessment, so after the advance already recorded, the base case points to a moderate continuation higher rather than an acceleration.
Trading idea: BUY 1.16750, SL 1.16500, TP 1.17250 Fundamental Market Analysis for August 17, 2026 EURUSDThe euro starts the new week from a firmer fundamental position following Friday’s weakening of the US dollar. US retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, while more moderate inflation data reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. For EURUSD, this weakens the US currency’s advantage and leaves room for a moderate recovery in the pair.
The euro is also supported by expectations of further ECB tightening. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September amid inflation remaining above target and continued resilience in the eurozone economy. The divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB policy expectations is becoming more favorable for the European currency, although high energy prices continue to limit market confidence.
The main risk remains a recovery in demand for the US dollar if global market sentiment deteriorates or US data come in stronger than expected. However, at the start of the session, the fresh repricing of US monetary policy remains the dominant factor. As long as this backdrop persists, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro, and the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD.
Trading idea: BUY 1.15700, SL 1.15400, TP 1.16450 EUR/AUD 2H Technical Analysis📊 EUR/AUD 2H Technical Analysis — Bullish Reversal Setup 🚀📈
🧠 Market Overview
EUR/AUD is currently trading around 1.6363 and has pulled back into a clearly marked 2H Order Block / demand zone. This area is important because it previously acted as a strong accumulation region and initiated a powerful bullish move.
The current price action suggests that sellers are testing the demand area, while buyers may be preparing to defend this zone. As long as the order block remains protected, the bullish scenario remains valid. 🟢
🔄 Market Structure
A previous Change of Character (CHoCH) around the 1.6360 area indicates a shift from the earlier bearish structure toward a potential bullish structure.
After the strong upside expansion, price formed a corrective move and is now returning toward the order block. This type of pullback can provide a potential continuation opportunity if buyers step in with confirmation. 📈
🟩 Key Order Block / Demand Zone
The main reaction area is approximately 1.6360–1.6340.
If price enters this zone and shows bullish rejection, strong buying candles, or a lower-timeframe structure shift, it could confirm that buyers are defending the order block.
The setup becomes more attractive if price performs a small liquidity sweep below the recent lows and quickly recovers back above the zone. 💧➡️📈
🎯 Upside Targets
TP1 — 1.6450
The first important upside objective and nearby resistance area.
TP2 — 1.6475
Price could continue toward the lower part of the marked liquidity zone.
TP3 — 1.6506 🔥
Major resistance and the upper liquidity target shown on the chart. A move into this region would complete the larger bullish scenario.
🛑 Risk / Invalidation
The marked invalidation level is around 1.63125.
A decisive 2H candle close below 1.63125 would weaken the bullish setup and suggest that the order block has failed. In that situation, the bullish continuation idea should be reconsidered rather than forcing an entry.
📌 Trade Idea
Bias: 🟢 Bullish
Entry Zone: 1.6360–1.6340
SL: 1.63125
TP1: 1.6450
TP2: 1.6475
TP3: 1.6506
🔥 Final Analysis
The chart is presenting a bullish pullback setup: price has shifted structure, moved higher, and is now retracing into the previously identified order block. The key is not to chase the move. Let price reach the demand zone and wait for confirmation from buyers.
If the order block holds, the expected path is:
Order Block 🟩 → Bullish Reaction 📈 → 1.6450 🎯 → Liquidity Zone 💧 → 1.6506 🔥
Overall, the setup remains bullish above 1.63125, with the strongest confirmation coming from a clear rejection and bullish structure shift inside the order block. 🧠📊⚡
