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Unraveling the NYSE Enigma: The Matrix of US EconomyNavigating the Matrix: The US Economy's Fractal Future Unveiled In the intricate dance between mathematical laws, global events, and the echoes of a 15-year financial cycle , the US economy stands at a crossroads. As financial analysts, we often find ourselves immersed in technical tools, resistance zones, and support levels, but perhaps it's time to step back and perceive the larger canvas. Michael Burry's ominous warning about a potential stock market crash has shuffled the cards, prompting us to question not just if, but when. The unfolding narrative forces us to reconsider the true value of a safe-haven asset—Digital Gold, aka Bitcoin. Recent news, including the surge in Bitcoin's value and its best day since August 2023 , as reported by Reuters, signals a seismic shift in the global financial landscape, with giants like BlackRock entering the scene. The emergence of a new world order, led by BRICS , alongside the strengthening of the Euro and the weakening of the USD, mirrors a plot that seems torn from Orwell's playbook. The question has transcended the realm of ETFs; it now echoes in the chambers of the world's financial future. As we step into this unknown terrain, a confluence of factors shapes the economic narrative. Inflation, like a rising tide, threatens to engulf us. Interest rates, akin to a tempest, soar to new heights. The capital congestion in consumer hands, unaccounted for and potent, adds complexity. Blue-chip stocks skillfully sidestep taxes, while government structures weaken. Amidst this symphony of financial discord, the political instability of influential nations like Russia and Israel looms large, their ripples creating a butterfly effect on the American economy. The matrix of economic forces is shifting, and the rules of engagement are evolving. In this amalgamation of financial philosophy and stark reality, we must decipher the patterns, anticipate the shocks, and navigate the unknown. The road ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear—the US economy is on the brink of a profound transformation, and it's time to read between the fractals.
Long
by wikitrades
Euro Shorts at 11 Months High: A Hedge Fund's Hilarious TakeIntroduction: Hold onto your hats because we've got some juicy news straight from the hedge fund world. Brace yourselves for a rollercoaster ride as we delve into the wild world of euro shorts, as reported by a certain hedge fund that knows how to tickle our funny bones. Get ready to chuckle and, of course, take some action! The Hedge Fund Report: Picture this: it's been a whopping 11 months since our dear hedge fund buddies decided to take on the mighty euro. And boy, have they been having a laugh! According to their recent report, the euro shorts have been quite the spectacle, providing us with a comedy show we never knew we needed. Call-to-Action: Join the Comedy Show and Short Euro! Now that we've had our fair share of laughter, it's time to take action, my fellow traders! The hedge fund report has given us a golden opportunity to join the comedy show and potentially make some handsome profits. So, here's our call-to-action: jump on the bandwagon and consider shorting the euro! But remember, trading is no laughing matter. Do your due diligence, analyze the market, and make informed decisions. Take advantage of this hilarious situation, but also stay vigilant and manage your risks wisely. After all, laughter is great, but profits are even better! Conclusion: In a world where trading can sometimes feel like a serious affair, it's refreshing to find humor in the markets. The euro shorts, as highlighted by our hedge fund friends, have given us a reason to smile and, more importantly, take action. So, traders, buckle up, embrace the comedy, and consider joining the euro shorting extravaganza. Happy trading, and may the laughter be with you! www.hedgeweek.com
TVC:EXYShort
by bryandowningqln
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40 Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing. The Chart - 22 month cycles - 22 months increasing and then decreasing - Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level. - A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow. - We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline. Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation. Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be; - Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug) - Losing the 10 month moving average - In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern) Lets see what happens. PUKA
CAPITALCOM:IT40Short
by PukaCharts
$EUR/USD - Approaching Resistances$EUR/USD is exploding today as a result of TVC:DXY plunging hard. Fundamentally speaking , concerning is the fact of Euro-Zone's Recession . TA speaking, $EUR/USD is about to be put on stop of it's impulsive price sky-rocketing due to approaching Resistances such as ; -8HR* OB -Macro Broken Trendline which was firstly support but now found as Resistance. If you're in a long, it would be a good move of taking some profits before price reaching at resistances targets. If you are looking for Buy, you should be very careful . In case you are looking to Sell $EUR/USD, its best to remain patient and anticipate resistances conflicting with Price Action . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD - Resistances to Observe- With Europe entering in to Recession as a cause of two consecutive negative quarters, a positive Price Action is a merely a relief rally that will be short lived.. Golden Zone is most definetely reachable taking into consideration the negative Macro-Economics events for Europe . Patience is a virtue . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this idea
by Mr_J__fx
The march to an inevitable North American world hegemony is ...... picking up pace. - A lot, lately! TLTR The war in the Ukraine was essentially over the day it began. Now, with western interests notably starting to fade, it will start to make it's way to the back pages of daily reportage. Why was this even an issue of US interests, to begin with? ... Washington had this far fetched dream - although, not entirely without historical bases - to create a Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian superstate , entirely funded on US interests, unifying over 80 million people, populating 5 million square kilometers, right up against the Russian Federation and China's western sphere of interests. Nice try! The real problem with this wishful thinking is multi-fold. While those above mentioned peoples do have a lot of similarities in culture, language and historically undesirable (for them) outcomes, the facts remain the same; - Ukrainians do not play well with others! Notably one of the most chauvinist cultures, their mistreatment of minorities is (or should be!) rapidly becoming legendary, the largest of which are the Poles; - "My enemy's (i.e. Russia) enemy is my friend." - As incredibly profound as that may sound, it also makes for extremely unstable, impossible to maintain alliances; - The Organization of Turkic States (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey) do have a lot to say about this and, not surprisingly, they do not approve - to say the least; - Then there is Turkey (a regional super power) which, not in the least, together with China, had managed nothing less than to broker a piece between Iran and Saudi Arabia; In summary, a now defacto Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Turkish coalition is enough to make even the United States to stop and think twice what it's wisest next step may be, in the region. OK, so no big deal. The US blew ~7% of it's annual defense budget on this still-born idea but, since it can, will likely call it a day , in the very near future. The EU , which is essentially nothing more than a German franchise, is looking at it's End of Days . The German industrial base managed to go 0-3, much like on the two previous occasions when they fielded their dream team , an outcome that is all but inevitable. Any doubt?! ... Just this week Volkswagen and BASF both announced that they are "considering to explore their North American options with regard to future investments". That is the German Industrial Base ! - Apparently looking to seek asylum in the US. German infrastructure and industry, which took over 30 years to build, only took two(2) short years to gut and to irreversibly break apart. No shock, there. Germans always had to be the best at whatever was the vogue of the day and clearly, self-mutilation and ultimately, economic suicide, not being an exception. (I spent a lot of time in Germany and to get a Wifi signal - cellular or otherwise -, the quality and frequency is right up there with Lebanon's. German pensioners blow their retirements on turtle neck sweaters because state sanctioned energy cut-backs simply turn off their central heating in the middle of January. The fastest growing manufacturing sector, as of right now, is wood-burning stoves! - The effect of which on the lumber industry is interesting, in itself but that's a whole other conversation.) Germany's largest trading partner is China! (40% of exports.) Chine is notably not found of the present, vigorous German ra-ra which would have the average mainstream news consumer believe that Kiev has won the war last christmas and that right now, Polish troops are storming the walls of the Kremlin, under German leadership. E.g. China, ultimately, does have an awful lot of pull in the case of German foreign policy and, lately, Beijing's patience appears to be wearing thin. Long story short; "It's been nice signing with you Coco, but it's over!" - Bet on it! China is dying! (Present tense.) As stated previously, the inescapable reality of a demographic collapse - it's first, truly major wave - is descending on China at the time of this writing. A total of 1/2 (50%) of China's population will not celebrate New Years Eve, 2035! - Leaving about 800 Million de-industrialized, de-urbanized, subsistence farmers in it's wake, by the middle of the next decade. As rapid extinctions go, this one is for the books. (As a personal reflection perhaps of mild interest, I have spent some time in the Mekong Delta, planting rice - just to see what it's all about. Afterwards I can safely state that there is no more expensive crop or an other, more soul-sucking, endlessly laborious occupation than rice farming! As for automation? ... What automation?! - It will never happen! To grow rice is a 24/7, all out battle with Nature, which uses up every living thing - including people and the environment - in a merciless fashion. I, personally, would much rather go back to pyramid building, as one of the slaves. My point being; Can anyone imagine china without rice? - ) In short, if there ever was a sure thing , this is it! (Feel free to do the rest of the math - i.e. a world without China.) Now, having argued why "everyone dies, except for the USA" , that, of course, is not the same as all of them will walk off into the sunset with a whimper . (Although, under the circumstances, even that isn't very far fetched.) Who will be able to muster at least a last, dying spasm, is yet to be seen but if it happens it will be violent! Be prepared! "Crises take much longer to unfold and run much deeper than anyone would expect." All that is outlined above is already happening (no more "unfolding" ) and perhaps with traders' typically myopic view, a lot that is about to hit the fan could seem "unexpected", at that moment. Don't be caught off guard! Trade it with the lay-of-the-land in mind and make the most of what promises to be a once in many-generation opportunity. EUR/USD Short Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); USD/CNH Long Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); US Equities & Treasuries over any off-shore, Bias p.s. The US of A still maintains marginally beneficial demographics, with no near term dangers on the horizon. On the top of that, it also boast one of the few optimally dispersed populations - from a systemic point of view. E.g. "Globalization", in reality, is just a less pointed pseudonym for US world hegemony.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
8
EUR/USD Short; SELL here! Doesn't get any easier than this.Instead of recanting the otherwise already widely disseminated fundamental factors, a couple of fresh data points; - Central & Eastern European housing market in collapse; YoY -28% decline in residential prices; - The nagging (constantly revisited) issue of Russian exports of enriched uranium (fuel rods) to the EU (and the US) will now likely be "officially" voted on - whether to include them in the next sanction package. This constitutes <3% of Russian energy sales YET, it effects >35% of the EU's energy generation; (This would be the final, self inflicted blow to energy starved EU - especially for France.) As its been the tendency lately, the EU parliament rushes to pass one stupid, self-defeating act after an other. (Observe all the clowns in the current EU parliament.) In short, as stupid and self-defeatists as this idea was, from the word "Go", inline with the current, popular, parliamentary suicide wave, this may actually come to pass - gets included in the next sanction package. - The war in Ukraine is not going well - to put it mildly. (In major Ukrainian cities police and militia is nabbing 16 year olds off the streets, shipping them off to basic training camps. Much like during the final days of the 3rd Reich.) As it happens, the US has the tendency to cut lose the dead weight, in this case, dump this whole Pandora's Box on the EU's lap. [Not to mention that the US already has pretty much milked this whole situation close to it's maximum potential benefit. Even more reason to call it a day.) - Many more recent developments [just tired of writing them all down, having focused here on the couple of the more recent, relevant factors) which all point to one and the same direction. Most importantly, the EURUSD technicals point in one direction - and one direction only !-, as clearly as it could be imagined.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
15
Europe is treading a fine line between growth and inflationEuropean equities have ushered in 2023 with a strong rebound, up 7.72%1. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows into the European region have risen by US$13bn, in sharp contrast to the US that has seen US$9bn of outflows year-to-date (YTD)as of 27 February 2023. The confluence of China re-opening its economy and prudent management of resources during the energy crisis, alongside better valuations, helped European equities flourish. Essentially, the worst impact from the energy crisis that was priced in for Europe did not end up materialising, thereby improving sentiment. Resilient Q4 2022 earnings season but outlook remains cautious Europe is seeing better earnings growth for Q4 2022, up 8.81%3. The deep value parts of the market – financials, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare – continue to contribute to positive earnings growth. At the same time, China’s reopening has benefitted cyclical sectors across consumer discretionary and communications which posted the strongest earnings growth up 49% and 38% respectively4. At 8% of sales, Europe has the second-highest exposure to China after Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan). It therefore would make sense to position for a better China macro-outlook in the sectors with the highest revenue exposure to China – semiconductors, materials, consumer durables, energy, and automobiles. We also know Chinese consumers saved one-third of their income last year, depositing 17.8 trillion yuan ($2.6 trillion) into banks, and investors are pinning their hopes on those savings finding their way into Europe’s luxury goods market. Another factor favouring European equities has been European buyback activity which has increased to a record level, with a net buyback spend reaching around 220bn thereby creating an additional yield of around 2%5. This has helped Europe’s total yield (that is, buyback + dividends) outpace that of the US for the first time in 30 years. Headwinds persist from further tightening by European Central Bank (ECB) Euro-area Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI) continued their rebound in February reaching a nine-month high of 51, helped by easing headwinds from the energy crisis and resilient consumer spending amidst fading inflation. Headline inflation in the Euro-area for January dipped to 8.6%, showing further evidence that price pressures are easing6. However, core inflation in the Euro-area rose to 5.6%5 from 5.2% in December, highlighting that underlying price pressures continue to remain sticky. The more resilient economic data of late is likely to keep the ECB on a more hawkish monetary path. As monetary policy works with approximately a 10 - 12 month lag, we are yet to see the full impact of the recent spate of tightening. Euro-area M1 growth is down to 0.6%, marking the second weakest reading on record pointing to weaker growth ahead. Furthermore, the Q1 results of the ECB Bank Lending Survey showed Euro-area credit conditions tightening at the fastest pace since 2009. In the Euro-area, moves in M1 growth tends to lead economic momentum by six months. This suggests that tighter monetary policy is leading to reduced credit availability for the real economy. Tailwinds from looser fiscal policy to aid the Euro-area recovery Prior to the Ukraine war, the Euro-area was characterised by relatively tight fiscal policy. However, the shock of the energy crisis drove a shift in fiscal policy. Governments are loosening their fiscal purse strings again, offering significant support to both consumers and businesses amidst the recent energy shock. Government expenditure, as a share of GDP, surged to almost 60% as COVID-19 hit (from just over 45% prior to the virus) and it is now rising again higher than before the pandemic7. The Eurozone budget deficit is now widening and heading towards 4% of GDP. Eurozone government expenditure as a share of GDP in 2022, through Q3, was 3% higher than the average from 2017 to 2019, with revenues up less than 1%. The think tank, Bruegel, estimates that EU economies have set aside €680bn to date to protect consumers from the energy crisis, which comes in addition to the EU Recovery Funds (€750bn from 2021 to 2027) which are now flowing. This is close to 10% of GDP, which excludes the cost of COVID-19 support. The European economy remains caught between tailwinds – loose fiscal policy, easing energy prices, strong labour market, the re-opening of the Chinese economy – and headwinds of a weakening credit cycle in response to tighter monetary policy. Amidst this macro backdrop we expect investors to be more selective as the existing tailwinds should help Europe endure a milder than expected recession.
ICEUS:MPU1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Taf's Gun to the HeadLooking buy Nat Gas on the backdrop of a strong daily support holding.There is also a potential bullish inverse Head and Shoulders forming. Entry:6.729 Target:7.282 SL:6.503 RR:2.45 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Signal_Centre1
How The European Energy Crisis Is Affecting The Euro‍The euro-dollar exchange rate captures the value of the euro in terms of U.S. dollars. It’s one of the most widely tracked and significant global currency indicators, given that Europe is a major economic region with a strong currency, and many international financial transactions are denominated in euros. Moreover, the euro has been under pressure in recent months because of renewed concerns about European debt and fears that the European Central Bank may curtail its massive stimulus program too early (Injecting Billions of Euros into Eurozone debt - pandemic-era bond-buying program), which would make it harder for countries like Italy to service their debt. With all this in mind, let’s take a look at why the Euro Declined Against the US Dollar and hit a 20 Year Low recently. The European Energy Crisis Energy is a critical aspect of any economic outlook. As such, it is no surprise that Europe’s energy crisis has exacerbated its economic problems. Europe currently relies on Russia for approximately 50% of its natural gas. Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian gas is a major source of tension between the EU and Russia. The EU has placed sanctions on Russian energy firms, making it difficult for them to acquire equipment and technology they need to develop their energy infrastructure. That has left Europe with few viable options for alternative suppliers. Effects of EU Sanctions against Russian The EU’s Largest Member States Are Suffering The most significant economic problems can be found in Europe’s largest economies: Italy, France, Germany, and Spain. And those four economies are suffering because of the energy crisis, a weak euro, Brexit, and rising interest rates. The euro has been trading at a relatively low level against the U.S. dollar for years. However, the euro’s weakness has recently accelerated, as the European Central Bank adopted a more hawkish tone. That has made it more expensive for other countries to buy euros. Ergo, pushing up borrowing costs for euro-zone countries that are heavily indebted like Italy, France, and Spain. It has also made it more expensive for the European Union’s most powerful economies to service their debt. Political Instability It’s important to mention political instability because it has been an ongoing issue in Europe for years, particularly in countries like Italy, France, and Germany. That’s led to significant political uncertainty that has kept investors away and made it more difficult for these countries to get the strong economic growth they need to deal with their debt problems. The United Kingdom has been a major trading partner with the EU, The political environment surrounding the Brexit has led to significant economic uncertainty. Eurozone Growth Is Stagnant One of the most important economic metrics is GDP growth, which is the rate at which an economy is producing goods and services. Eurozone GDP growth has been relatively low for years, and it recently fell to a 17-year low. That’s largely due to lack of investment in major economies like France, Germany, and Italy, which are the most significant contributors to the eurozone’s GDP. When the energy crisis hit the EU, businesses stopped investing in plant and equipment necessary for growth. As a result, GDP shrank throughout the region. That’s forced the European Central Bank to take strong action, including negative interest rates and quantitative easing. However, those policies have had only limited success, as Europe is still facing an investment drought. European Union Debt Crisis The EU debt crisis emerged in 2010 when major economies like Italy, Spain, and Greece racked up unsustainable debt loads. Although it has faded in recent years, it remains a major issue, particularly for Italy and Spain. That’s because the two countries have large debt loads, and they are suffering from slower growth, making it harder to service that debt. That’s created significant economic uncertainty, as investors have been reluctant to lend to these countries. The European Central Bank has stepped in, making it easier for these countries to borrow, including buying their debt. However, the ECB’s actions have also made it easier for other EU countries to borrow, which has contributed to the rise in interest rates that are hurting France and Germany. ECB Tapering As the energy crisis worsened and economic growth was weak throughout the European Union, the European Central Bank boosted its monetary stimulus to stave off a deeper downturn. That included purchases of billions of euros of assets, including government bonds, per month. That quantitative easing program has been credited with helping Europe’s major economies, particularly Germany, avoid a full-blown economic crisis, as well as keeping the value of the euro low. That has also bolstered economic growth in other EU countries, like France and Italy, that rely on exports to Germany. However, with the energy crisis easing and economic growth gaining momentum, the ECB began to taper its QE program, reducing monthly purchases to just €30 billion. boosting the borrowing costs of the European Union’s larger economies. Oil Price Impact The energy crisis has also driven up the price of oil and other commodities. That has put additional pressure on the EU’s most significant economies, as their industries have been affected by higher prices. That’s particularly true for France and Italy, which have been among the hardest hit by the energy crisis and oil price surge. That’s made it more difficult for those economies to export goods and services, which has contributed to the stagnation of their GDP. Conclusion The European energy crisis has been a major problem for the EU. It has driven up the price of oil and gas, while making it more difficult for countries to import those resources. That has put the EU at an economic disadvantage when compared to other major regions, like the United States. That’s made it harder for the EU to recover from a variety of economic issues, including a low growth rate, high debt levels, and political instability. It remains to be seen if the EU can overcome its energy crisis and get back on track to economic prosperity. EUROZONE INFLATION RATE Important Upcoming Events that will cause volatility in the market
by EQTSHARES
30
The Demise of Euro Is Not Greatly ExaggeratedCME:6E1! The U.S. dollar reached 1:1 parity with Euro on Tuesday for the first time in 20 years. Wall Street may tell you that the common currency for 19 European countries has been hammered by economic woes, high inflation, and an energy supply crisis brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I have a very straight-forward answer to the depreciation of the Euro. It is in a simple mathematical formula. In economics, Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. The formula for IRP is: F0=S0× , where: F0=Forward Rate, S0=Spot Rate; ic=Interest rate in country c; ib=Interest rate in country b Inputs : The Fed raised rates three times from 0.0%-0.25% to current target of 1.50%-1.75% (ib). Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a deposit rate of -0.5% (ic). Before the first Fed rate hike in March, the Euro/USD spot rate was 1.04 (S0). Output : Plug the data into the IRP formula, you will get a forward rate of 1.017 (F0). This matches the observed exchange rate after the June rate hike. New Output : The market expects the Fed to raise another 75 bps on July 26th-27th. If we replace 1.75% with 2.50% in ib, the new Euro/USD forward rate would be 1.0096 (F1). Let’s explain this in plain English: An investor has the option of investing in either U.S. dollar or Euro. With higher rate, dollar asset produces a higher return. To make Euro more attractive, the investor would need more euros per unit of U.S. dollar. Therefore, Euro depreciates against the dollar. This is the logic behind IRP. It is called the Law of One Price . If we believe that the Fed would keep raising interest rates, and it would do so at a faster pace than the ECB, then Euro would continue to fall. By how much? You could try to work out your own estimate by plugging in different Fed and ECB interest rates at the IRP formula. I recognize that many factors would impact exchange rates. A framework using IRP is a simplified but effective way to construct a FX trading strategy. All the other factors can be viewed as variables influencing the rate decisions. Asides from the mathematical approach, we could consider a country’s currency to be reflective of its economic strength. Looking back at the last two decades since Euro’s inception, the European Union, and the Euro Zone in particular, has been outpaced by the United States in terms of GDP. Taking the GDP in 2000 as a baseline index 100, the U.S. has now reached 155, while the EU (excluding Britain) is at 133, and the Euro zone at 128, according to an analysis by the Economist. Whether it was the Subprime crisis in 2008, or the debt crisis in 2010, it took the EU economy much longer to recover comparing to the United States. Brexit raised a red flag of the long-term viability of a political and economic union of independent countries. If history is a guide, I can’t find a good case where one common currency existed among multiple nations for an extended period of time. Exceptions could only be found between an empire and its colonies. Europe would strive, but would a common currency need to be there? A short position in CME Euro-FX futures (6E) is a way to express this bearish view. The March (6EH3) contract may be a good choice. It was settled at 1.02415 on July 12th. There are five Fed meetings between now and contract expiration. Each rate-setting decision could potentially shock the Euro into further decline, in my opinion. Each contract has a notional value of €125,000. CME requires an initial margin of $2,400. For a short position, a decline (increase) of 1 basis point (0.01%) in the exchange rate of Euro will result in $12.50 in gain (loss) in your account balance. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
Time to short the EuroThe current dead cat bounce in the Euro is impressive but is also an opportunity to open a short position in the EUR/USD pair. Price is getting squeezed between the rising support line drawn from 2000 and the falling resistance from the top of July 2008. Good places to increase the short position gradually is right now at 1.128, then the top of the falling resistance channel at 1.15, and finally the .236 Fib line at 1.165. Your stoploss should be decided based on taste, but 1.20 seems reasonable. The initial target is 1.04. Further targets can be determined once we reach the first one, targets as tempting as 0.82. As it stands, this trade has a 1.7 to 2.5 risk reward ratio based on how you position your short entries. I have to say I'm not much of a currency expert, but this my simple prediction from what I see.
Short
by TechNerdOmar
2
Euro gains faith of investors durring Corona Virus.E.U successfully overcomed the challenge of coronavirus unpredictable first strike. Even with the threat of italy and spain leaving the union, E.U stand united and finded the soloutin. That win against the pandemic gived faith to the investors who remained stand by the europeans. Also the elections of november for the next US president, the black live matters movement and the treatment of Trump's government for the pandemic shows an unstable economic enviroment.
by PanosLivieratos
Last resistance standingIrrational decision were made by the central banks which decided to float the markets with as much money as necessary and started even to buy junk bonds. So the signs for the markets are bullish even we have the biggest human made crisis since the great depression. The S&P made a real comeback based on price action and stands now in front of the last resistance before entering the bull market again in my opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the last resistance breaking. But never the less you have to be prepared for both cases and historical speaking it was never a great idea to bet against the central banks. But overall be careful with long-term investing in this kind of market environment, where the whole investing sector is driven by new COVID-19 numbers and statements of the central banks. Let's wait and see how it plays out...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by macrolukas