macrolukas

macrolukas

ZN futures broke the 200 EMA for the first time since the end of 2018. Higher yields on the 10y treasuries are on their way. But let's be clear. Government debt isn't a bad sign in general, but it will be interesting to watch how the FED will (or if they will) react to this new development.

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The S&P 500 broke the bullish pennant formation yesterday and is ready for a re-test on Wednesday. Important levels to watch right now !

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At the end of the last week we saw gold declining a bit in value. Cause of the overall economic situation in the world, I suggest that this could be just a short term setback in gold. (If you ask me about my long term view on gold, it’s still bullish and I'm confident that even the 2.000 mark could be potentially in range.) But for now let's focus on the current...

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Irrational decision were made by the central banks which decided to float the markets with as much money as necessary and started even to buy junk bonds. So the signs for the markets are bullish even we have the biggest human made crisis since the great depression. The S&P made a real comeback based on price action and stands now in front of the last resistance...

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We finally got a joint statement on Sunday afternoon. OPEC+ is willing to cut the global oil production in amount of 9.7 million barrels per day. That’s very much but it has to be more. The investment bank Goldman Sachs just recently said that they believe a cut as high as 15 million barrels per day will be necessary to push the oil price higher again and away...

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After much deliberation, I adjusted my current market opinion somewhat. Basically, I am still bearish about the current events and get my idea of ​​the last 5th movement in the bearish direction realistic. However, the following scenario should also be kept in mind and not be surprised by certain bullish tendencies: The governments and central banks of the...

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It’s just like in a comedy movie. And to me it looks like that the people have absolutely no idea about the monetary policy and how they handle it. So yes we have a crisis right now and that is something that also our big central banks from the US and Europe already have recognized. But the effectiveness of their tools to support the economy is pretty bad. Why is...

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My suggestion on the market right now is that if wee see another selling period, we will see it today or at least within the next few days. (Look for the 20EMA in the daily and the bearish cloud in the H4 chart.) In my view the market also was a bit to optimistic in the last few days especially about the virus situation in the US. As you can see we're standing...

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With this chart I would like to show you, why we potentially haven’t seen the "real" bottom of the market yet. So today is an important day for the markets. After all the new help programs and emergency cuts by several central banks and governments from all country’s in the world, we will see jobless claims numbers released today. And I think this number will...

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Gold could potentially stand in front of a real turning point. For the first time this year I see potential for a bullish trend in gold. The momentum already changed from bearish to slightly bullish. Now I'm looking for an entry after a short retracement at about 1582.3 in long direction. If we look back in history we also saw gold falling with the overall stock...

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Next week we'll see in which direction Natgas will continue it's movement. All the fear about the worldwide spreading corona virus also struggled the CFD's of Natgas. If Natgas is able to hold the price above the trendline in H4 (or above the EMA 20 in the daily) we could see a bullish continuation. Pay attention to the news, cause bad facts about the virus could...

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As you can see on the chart, it looks like we have seen a bearish breakout constellation. Over half a year we were in a bullish upside trend, which now got broken by price. First T/P should be around a 0.6 fib level. This is a long term trade idea, so let price run and see if it works out. Remember, trading is a business of probability.

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The DXY is ath a key level at the moment. In the next couple of days we could potentially see in which direction the dollar will go further on. If we see a bearish candle underneath the trendline closing, we could se some more dollar weakness.

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The fundamentals doesn't look as good as the weeks before. There are more uncertainties of no trade deal and normally that means stronger safe haven currencies like the JPY or CHF. On the technical perspective we can see clearly that we have downside momentum. I'm currently waiting for the 5th elliot wave to the downside.

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You can see how price is forming a third touch on the trendline. I see two price targets at the first trendline and a longer term target at the 0.38 fib level. We saw a strong USD in the last 2 weeks which fought back after a longer period of losing. -- see dollar index TVC:DXY There are no further news for the GBP in the upcoming week. All eyes are on the...

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EURUSD retraces at the 0.68 fib level last week. I guess that price will go up and gets rejected by the 0.38 fib level or at least at the 100 EMA in the daily. At the end of the week we will see PMI of many european countries and Mrs. Lagarde is also speaking on friday. So overall I think that we will see a bearish trend continuation till the end of the week at FX:EURUSD