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Eurchf market overview and trade ideasLagarde’s surprisingly dovish presser from the U.S. session spooked EUR bulls and this anti-EUR sentiment carried over to the Asian session. The pair looks like it could retrace above the previous area of interest or around daily pivots R2 or 50% of Fibonacci retracement as because the short term moving average may suggest bullish trend but actually the long term indicate us it remains bearish still on the 1-hour time frame. Another rejection from the previous area of interest or rejection from descending trend line or from any Fibonacci retracement levels as mention above could send the pair beyond the level 1.06999. A break above the 50% Fib, descending trendline, daily pivot levels any and 200 SMA could signal for a move back up to the 1.0790 but to be honest with the current situation of eurozone I feel less supportive for the euro currency after Lagarde told a news conference that risks to growth in the eurozone remained tilted to the downside and which overall tone as dovish for me including other traders I assume plus knowing that today german outlook only doing fine overall but leaving eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) only fine not the service and Markit Composite bull traders got no much reason to boost the euro higher.
Short
by Anatta0
UK Verdict, our recommendations and plansA new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and the UK. The pound added about 500 points by the end of the week, bringing the account of its achievements to almost 1000 points. Recall that the UK and the EU, as we predicted, were able to agree on the terms of the deal at the last moment. As a result, at the EU summit on Thursday, this deal was approved by Europe. Another problem appeared - Johnson does not have a majority in Parliament. Accordingly, he had pretty high chances to repeat the fate of his predecessor, Theresa May, who also agreed on the deal, but could not pass it through Parliament. On Saturday, a vote took place, following which the British Parliament ordered Johnson to ask for a 3-month postpone so that parliamentarians could bring its legislation into line with the new realities. Johnson, who says more than once that there will be no postpone. Thus, he was put in a rather uncomfortable position. In general, there is a feeling that such a vote is rather an attempt to publicly humiliate Johnson, rather than a really necessary thing to do. Nevertheless, Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the European Union on Saturday requesting a Brexit delay. At the same time, he sent a couple of letters to the EU (which he did not forget to sign), in one of them he says that he is against the postponement. This week we will continue to look for points for its purchases because the Brexit issue has not been solved yet. Therefore there is still potential for the pound to grow. It is worth noting the weak statistics for the United States and China, which only confirmed what has been clear for a long time: trade war cause real harm to everyone. No breakthroughs were observed regarding the end of them. In this regard, we recommended focusing on finding entry points for the purchase of safe-haven assets. Given the state of financial markets at the beginning of the week, we see no reason to revise our recommendations and this week we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. As for the euro. Technically you need to buy EURUSD, we recommend doing it with an eye on Thursday. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone on Thursday. Most likely, there will be no changes, but given the general weakness of the Eurozone economy, we will not be surprised at the “dovish” comments from the Central Bank or even the expansion of measures to soften the monetary policy, which may well provoke euro sales. The oil market was relatively calm last week. And although the Middle East continues to resemble a powder keg (Turkish military operation in Syria, an attack on an Iranian tanker, etc.), so far the markets are trying to ignore it. Last week, reserves increased by almost 10 million barrels - the maximum value since April 2019. Saudi Aramco has postponed the launch of its long-awaited initial public offering on Sunday. And although there is no direct connection between this event and the state of the oil market, in general, this is a rather bearish signal. As for our position, it is generally unchanged, while oil (WTI brand) is higher than 51.20, we tend to buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD: Week 43 Outlook The EUR/USD saw a full +1.20% rally for the week, which is a pretty large move in currencies. This is as expected off the back of the positive BREXIT momentum. Some analysts are saying that the U.K. should exit as soon as possible as they could potentially make negotiations worse leading to a more favorable deal for the European Union. Over the weekend we saw the extension force its way through the U.K. government’s desk against the will of the Prime Minister of the U.K. and his cohorts. The PM did not agree nor sign the extension letter in protest. This week will reveal how positive, negative, or neutral this will affect markets. Going to the charts, our forecast on the EUR/USD is 80% to 90% complete. We saw the breakout, retest, and continuation headed to our 1.12 target. At his point, we have not changed our forecast as we believe we will see 100% completion of the outlook. THE PLAY: We are on Hold with the EURUSD as it continues its climb to 1.12.
by KingdomRichOffical
Forex Markets Wobble on Italy CrisisThe forex markets waggled after Italy Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called for a snap election. Salvini urged the prime minister to reconvene parliament to back his claim that the coalition government is no longer solid. The EURUSD pair clocked in some losses after the news broke out. Additionally, stocks and bond markets in the EU zone reacted more furiously. Traders sold off Italian assets swiftly. Italy’s political tensions resulted to wider yield spread between German and Italian bonds. This isn’t welcome news for the common currency, which has already been suffering pressure. Meanwhile, traders are also becoming increasingly dovish. They are betting that the European Central Bank could implement a more aggressive September rate cut, increasing dovish expectations. As of writing, there is a 27% probability of a 20-basis-point cut in ECB’s deposit facility rate. That’s way higher than the previous 12% probability. Snap Elections, Forex Markets to Recover? Salvini’s call for snap election is quite obviously a move to solidify his power. He heads the right-wing popular Lega party. According to Salvini, the failure of the Five Star Movement’s attempt to derail plans for a high-speed rail link was evidence the coalition couldn’t govern. He said Italian needed “certainty,” with a government that “does things, not a ‘Mr. No.’” Salvini is enjoying massive support from opinion polls, being a populist and mainly because of his stance against illegal immigration. The forex markets will probably get over the fiasco speedily, with the euro likely getting back some of its losses. The euro zone also absorbed the French industrial production data for June. The data could be consistent with the dismal pattern in Germany. The dollar index that gauges the buck’s strength against the other currencies barely moved. US President Donald Trump once again lashed out on Twitter against the Federal Reserve. However, it didn’t have much effect on the markets, which recovered quite easily and with barely an inconvenience.
by Financebroker
GBPUSD PENDING BREAKOUT AND RISE!Hi fellow traders! GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.31100. It has the potential to rise all the way up, following the current EU summit taking place right now. If the UK is granted an extension, this will rule the chance of No Deal out, which will allow the £ to strengthen. Hopefully if it is a short one, it would be better as it would allow the UK to leave as early as possible to get rid of the issues regarding the European elections. Taking a look at this pair from a technical perspective, it should look to rise if the pair does break out from the structure drawn. I believe this pair could easily skyrocket towards 1.32000 and beyond if the extension is granted, as it gets rid of business and economic uncertainty for the UK. I think it would still be a good idea to keep a tight stop loss on this pair as we don't know where the news regarding this could go. Fingers crossed there is an extension! Good luck trading. If you read it to all the way down here, thanks for showing some support to this article! Tell me where you think GBPUSD will be heading next! Comment below all your ideas about the future of the Pound! Buy or Sell and why? Additionally, drop me your charts/ideas for it, that'd be great so I can see where you are coming from. I'm a new guy to the FX, Stocks & Crypto market, and I'd appreciate any help people may offer! Please drop a follow/like! I need reputation points!
Long
by TheFinancialTRDR
2
UK Won't Sign the Divorce PapersBut just because the UK is fickle on leaving the EU for the WTO, its still not sure if ready to make the jump. EURUSD in the upcoming week will almost entirely be moved by Brexit, however concerns over a slowdown in European growth may be justified with more weak EU data, particularly in central bank speak on Tuesday, German CPI on Thursday, and unemployment figures on Friday. While these figures are expected to come in mostly unchanged, it could be Draghi's speech on Tuesday that could give investors the most jitters. Meanwhile, the UK is injecting much more fear into the heart of EU investors with the prospect of a no deal Brexit. This not only hurts the UK, but also the EU which imports many goods to the UK. Research conducted by the Eurasia Group suggests that every major EU country stands to lose GDP per capita except for Austria if the UK leaves without a deal. For more analysis, please check out more content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Facebook is being threatened of being sued! Big Sell!Facebook may be facing a 1.63 Billion Dollar Fine for Breach! Facebook had a Breach of hacker getting their hands on more than 50 Million users information! So if the European Union's newest privacy law was violated by facebook than they will be sued for 1.63 Billion Dollars. Ireland's Data Protection Commission, which is Facebook's top privacy regulator for Europe, said on Saturday that it needed more information from Facebook about the nature and scale of the breach, including which Union residents it might have affected. Although that Facebook can confirm how many people it affected, they can't yet say who or what the risk could be for those who were affected by the Hack. Facebook has hit a major trust loss that they were trying to regain after multiple privacy issues in the past. As of right now I don't know how this will go so i would sell at this point and time as short term investors may want to hold until the final release is announced in the future. -Jon Matthews
FShort
by matthewsjonfredrick
Eur Usd long 09-03-2017hello dear traders & welcome to growing Forex All eyes on M.Draghi. As of tomorrow the EU said that all the 28 countries economy are growing at a faster rate from the US. Still political uncertainty in Europe its about Greece debt its about France elections it looks like Germany is all alone. Germany minister Wolfsgang said Germany alone cant handle the pressure from the US. For the US tomorrow comes the NFP & later the interest rate decision.Looks Like the pair is trading in a consolidation where a boast is needed to confirm a trend.
Long
by GrowingForex
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate increases, saying "Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year" - which is extremely hawkish given most expect 1 at the most.. Back up this sentiment by insisting that the Fed is "Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move". Nonethless Lockhart did somewhat contradict his "rate expectations" by saying "Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy" which surely shouldn't be the case if 2 hikes are coming - that would be on the aggressive side. All in all, Lockharts comments go hand in hand with my Bullish medium term USD/ DXY view (see previous articles) - I like the USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD in the medium term so long DXY/ USD is favoured, even more so if 2 rate hikes were to be realised this year. At current levels short GBPUSD is my favourite expression FOMC RATE HIKE IMPLIED PROBABILITIES - On the likelihood of rate increases, in the past 24 hours, from the Federal Funds Rate implied probability curve we have seen rates/ probabilities firm after yesterdays "risk-break" recovery, with a 25bps September/ Nov hike steepening to 17.2% from 11.7%(Wed), and Dec setting new highs at 35.9% from 29.5% (Wed) - Dec also went on to double the probability of a 50bps hike to 5.1% vs 2.8%(Wed), giving Lockharts comments some weight. FOMC Lockhart Speech Highlights: -Fed's Lockhart: Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Lockhart: Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy -Lockhart: So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Will Increase Long Term Uncertainty -Lockhart: Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy -Lockhart: Bond Market Yields Largely Reflect Flight-To-Quality Buying -Lockhart: Too Soon to Say 'All Clear' for Financial Markets -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Not a 'Leman Moment' -Lockhart: Still Expects U.S. to Grow by 2%, Expects More Job Gains -Lockhart: Economy is 'Performing Adequately' -Lockhart Says Fed Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Fed's Lockhart: Presidential Election May Be Boosting Economic Uncertainty -Fed's Lockhart: Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: TRADING STRATEGY - PART 2 Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I consider a 60pip break of either level to confirm the conviction to a sentiment e.g. 60pips higher is risk-on (Yen selling), 60pips Lower is risk-off (Yen buying). So of the two possibilities for this week (based on the previous post) Most likely i think is: 1) Global risk continues its recovery as I ask myself what possible risks/ events are there that could tip risk-off sentiment? My answer is none. However, there are several arguments for a risk-on bias e.g. 1) Central bank easing continues to offer risk higher e.g. a dovish RBA (5th) and BOE meeting (14th) price JPY lower and UJ higher 2) Implied vol continues dropping below realised vol, aiding bullish sentiment. 3) Brexit uncertainty continues its de-risking/ pricing as its unlikelihood increases. Further, I think Equities have another week of rallying to price before earnings uncertainty selling will become a factor. Trading Strategy: If Yen carries on Ranging I advise buying UJ at lows of the range e.g. between 101.3-101.9 - or you could buy at any price in the range as I have a target of 106 in the near-term and 110+ in the next 4+wks. Alternatively, I advise placing BUY STOP orders at 103.9-104.2 (level that confirms a risk-on breakout) as there will be 80% of UJ short Stop-Losses at this level, so we will likely see a short squeeze take us 200pips up instantly once UJ trades to at or about 104. I like owning UJ structurally in the medium term as even if UJ falls lower in the near term which is unlikely (what risk is likely to drive it lower?) as UJ trading at or below 101 (and the further it falls) the more likely the BOJ will be to launch emergency FX intervention and/or near term lower UJ increases odds of an aggressive BOJ cut at its July 28th meeting - which will make UJ trade 500pips+ higher, dependent on the measures/ aggressiveness taken. For some background/ support for the UJ higher trade 1. based on BOJ easing, recently JPY retail sales disappointed at -1.9% vs -1.6%, as did inflation which was seen at -0.4% nationally for CPI and Core and -0.5% for the same in Tokyo + BOJ's own Core measure continued its strong MoM downtrend at 0.8% (from 0.9% last) - consistently unresponsive inflation is the single biggest driver for BOJ easing/ cutting policy, and the poor inflation has been problematic since the last cut in January 2016 so this gives further weight to another cut, especially since it was 6+ months ago. - Also BOJ Kuroda and JPY Govt Aso and Abe had several emergency meetings last week as a result of the Brexit vote/ JPY appreciation, in which they discussed FX levels, although taking no action, such rhetoric and actions imply and give likelihood that the BOJ will take substantial action in July. - Technically, UJ has been oversold for several weeks, even if UJ higher isnt structurally long, we should at least be able to realise a 600-800pip recovery rally before moving lower again. Volatility - USDJPY Realised Volatility is trading higher than implied (bullish signal) with 2wk and 1mth at 19.64% & 15.6% vs implied's trading at 11.25% & 13.43% + there are some large notional OTM call strikes at 104.2 and 105, indicating the market may have a bullish bias. Also, the UJ 1wk/1m 25 Delta Risk Reversals Trade at apprx -1.6%, and falling, indicating the market is becoming more bullish by 1) being positioned long in the spot market but buying less downside option coverage and/or 2) Speculative Demand for UJ downside puts is falling. *Read my previous post "RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1" for analysis of last week and mo
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would lead you to believe that the Brexit decision was all just a bad dream, with much of the price action volatility confined to Friday alone - rather where I had expected the decision on Friday to start a cascade of risk-on asset selling, as the brexit backdrop provides the perfect impetus to trigger the risk-off fear for the wider global risks e.g. US Election, Global growth, China Debt - and, ofc, the Brexit Macro economic spill-over itself. Why did we witness this Risk Recovery Paradox? 1. I think the main reason that risk managed to avoid carrying its bid bias into this week from Friday was PM David Cameron's decision early on Friday/ Monday to 1) Resign in October and 2) Refuse to sign the Article 50 which formally/ actually starts the Brexit Negotiations - the net effect is that brexit risks have been shifted into 2017 (or never) rather than present, thus providing investor confidence to buy risk at its Friday discount (why not) and take bets on a Brexit no show (illustrated by a buoyed GBP which imo should have fallen more). - What this combination of events now means is that Brexit now trades as a function of Political possibility rather than as a certainty because 1) By resigning in Oct and refusing to start the negotiations now, it means that Brexit itself is put on hold until at least October. Further, the fact that the above is the case, the whole "Brexit" likelihood is brought into question in itself as 1) How likely is the new PM in Oct going to sign the article 50 as soon as they get into office? I think VERY unlikely, its career suicide to start such a volatile process immediately when in office so that means the Brexit Negotiations are pushed further out and likely into 2017 (66.66% chance it occurs in 2017 now from odds-checker). 2) Will Brexit go ahead at all? I think Brexit absolutely is unlikely, as the new PM wont want the economic and political uncertainty that will follow - especially as the vote didnt happen under their leadership - imo its more likely that the new PM will forgo the blame onto Previous PM Cameron and/ or call for a re-referendum or scrap the idea completely and instead offer a solution to solve the "leave" voters problems e.g. Bid to fix EU immigration. 2. Worldwide Central Banks supportive/ Dovish statements - All Major CB have offered their support if their economy calls for it as a result of Brexit - namely the front-end of the FOMC's rate hike curve was severely flattened (Dec or 2017 hike now likely) and the BOE Gov Carney put 250bn in QE and 25bps of Int rate cuts on the cards - the net effect of these actions has been to smooth investor fear, and allow risk to rally, as low rates and QE has no doubt been the biggest driver for stocks in the last 8 years - the FTSE's recovery was/ is 100% underpinned by the BOE stance imo. 3. And the most interesting possibility is that - Investors don't believe in this risk-rally, instead it is just a micro unfolding that will eventually unravel, forcing risk to sell-off in the near future. And by looking at the stability of Gold, Bonds and Yen, this argument does carry alot of weight and is something ive been watching all week. All risk-off assets have traded flat/ higher, despite risk rallying - when risk-on and risk-off assets FAIL to maintain their negative correlation (as they are failing to do now, and are actually slightly positively correlated as they both rise) it usually means the rally is being undermined by a longer-term macro view - since liquidity is a 0 sum game in the long run, all assets cant grow at the same time, either risk must sell-off or
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
RISK-OFF YEAR: BREXIT & US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: BUY GOLD @12592016, the year of the Risk-Off Asset Historically Gold has performed +10-20% in the 6 months into US Presidential Election years AND also by longing Gold on this pull-back it opens up the opportunity to benefit from the potential tail risk that the UK votes to "Brexit" in which Gold will likely trade through $1400. Gold is one of my favourite plays for 2016 for these reasons so I suggest a strategy of: Buy GOLD - 1@1259 2@1237 3@1210 Long term TP $1395 SL $1195 Short term TP $1310 SL $1195 - Near-term on a UK Vote to stay we will likely see Gold risk-on sell off towards the $1200 handle - this is a great opp to get a good average price by buying Gold on its way down as I expect Gold to trade close to $1400 by years end and into the Election. - A UK Vote Leave will put Gold close to the $1400 level within a week. - The time-risk are asymmetrically skewed to the upside for Gold IMO as 1) in the near term, Brexit and Global economic unbalance uncertainty buoys the precious metal; Further, the recent failure of risk markets (SP/DJ) to set new highs despite posting recovery, likely signifies the end of the equity bull run, and thus the start of the Gold bull Run. - and 2) The US FOMC Rate Hike Cycle, US Presidential election and wider Global Economic concerns of Deflation and low-growth which is a systemic issue and is also likely to be the case for the foreseeable future (with the 2nd and 3rd largest Central Banks - ECB and BOJ under pressure - among much of the developed world) all contribute to drive the increase in risk-off/ safe haven demand for Gold over the Long-Medium term. - Gold is selling-off due to the increased risk appetite in the market currently as the near-term Brexit risk is soothed by "Stay" biased polls - HOWEVER, with Gold Volatility trading 50% lower than it was a week ago (reflecting the settled risk this week) with current ATM at 15%, and with 1M Risk-Reversals trading with a positive call skew of 3% we can expect an upward bias over the coming weeks/ months. - As lower Implied Vols are projected across the 12m options curve and the 12m Futures curve is also trading contango which both imply the Gold market sentiment is for the price to rise. - Finally, as the FOMC Rate hike cycle intensifies over the medium-term, bond prices will come under pressure, thus driving further demand for Gold as the higher quality and higher return asset is sought.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
22ND, 23RD, 24TH TRADING STRATEGY: GBPUSD - BREXIT/ REFERENDUMIn the previous post we have used the Price Action data from the Scottish UK Referendum for GBPUSD for the 3-days on and around the vote so the 17th, 18th (vote day) and 19th (result day) of September 2014 as a gauge to forecast whats in store for Price action on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week (the parallel days for both of the referendums). Reliability of the estimates made in the previous post: 1. Given the excessive absolute implied volatility (larger than 2007 levels) which is likely to be anywhere between 40-60% on the day(s) as we currently trade near 30%; and the excessive relative implied vol levels compared to the SUR, which only realised 9% at the time, which is 5-8x less than the market expects for the Brexit vote, the daily range estimate of 340-480pips for each of the 3 days on average is warranted - especially as we have already realised an ATR of 371 last week on the 17th, thus making a 480 pip range not particularly unlikely. - Historical Vol for UER has also traded 80%+ higher already in the last 3 days compared to SUR. - these implied and realised volatility differentials in mind, I also think the range of 1.35-1.57 is also prudent, though i think the risks are skewed to the downside of the model rather than the upside. Trading Summary: - For 22nd, 23rd, 24th we predict an ATR of 340pips, currently trading at 1.47 which is a 4x resistance level on the Daily, i think this range will be skewed to the downside, so I advise shorting GBPUSD >1.47 with SL at 1.484, TP anywhere from 1.46 to 1.40 for 2 reasons: 1) range trading in mind, a scalping 50-100pip strategy may also be useful given the high expected volatility and range, shorting all pullbacks to 1.47 may enable several 50-100pip TP trades. 2) Given the high expected range (340-480pips) and 500pip Standard deviation, the long-term play e.g. 1.40tp is also one I am trading as GU is likely to reach these levels in this environment of unparalleled volatility. -Currently I am splitting my margin between scalp trades and long-term GU positions (good for portfolio diversification) at this point in time, e.g. I have a few GBP shorts with close TP and a few with longer TP targets, this reduces my macro portfolio risk:reward as you reduce the risk of the shorter trades, but increase the reward of the longer trades. - ATM I am 8.5/10 short GBP vs USD and CHF (JPY is too volatile - 25% more so than GU and GCHF) Risks to the Trading strategy: - If GU breaks and holds above 1.485, my short play conviction falls massively to 2/10 (from 8.5/10) as for me it signals a potential trend reversal for GU to price higher since 1.47 has held for 6 months - I will cut all shorts past 1.485 and I am not interested in shorting GU if it holds past 1.48. - Further, there are risks that due to massive expected volatility/ uncertainty, game theory fears everyone out of the market e.g. everyone is too scared to trade, thus the spot market trades paradoxically against the volatility and realises flat price action since there is no volume. - This forecast and strategy is based purely on range bound trading (as guessing the direction IMO is too difficult giving the volatility/ uncertainty in the market and also as I believe the market should realise large ranges - thus validating the strat), however if the range/ price action assumptions do not hold true to some degree e.g. we trade flat or just rocket north, then the Short only strategy is obviously flawed. *See the 22nd, 23rd, 24th Forecast PA post attached to this one which shows the forecast used*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
14