EURUSD: Trendline Resistance Signals Pullback RiskEURUSD has extended its recovery and is now testing a long-term ascending trendline that has repeatedly acted as resistance. While bullish momentum remains strong, the pair is approaching a key technical barrier where sellers could regain control and trigger a short-term correction.
📊 Trade Plan
🔻 Entry: 1.15300
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.15710
🎯 Take Profit 1: 1.14970
🎯 Take Profit 2: 1.14400
Why this level matters
Price has rallied directly into a well-respected trendline resistance that has rejected previous advances. This area represents the first significant obstacle for buyers after the recent impulsive move.
At the same time, the Stochastic oscillator has entered overbought territory, indicating that bullish momentum may be becoming stretched. While overbought conditions alone are not a sell signal, they often support the case for a pullback when price reaches a major resistance level.
A bearish rejection from the trendline would reinforce the current technical structure and increase the probability of a move back toward the major demand zone.
Market Context
The US dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, allowing EURUSD to extend its rally. However, the Fed maintained a cautious tone, and policymakers remain divided on the path of future monetary policy. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank also kept rates unchanged while reiterating its data-dependent approach, leaving markets focused on incoming inflation and growth data rather than immediate policy changes.
With both central banks avoiding firm forward guidance, technical levels are likely to play a greater role in shaping short-term price action. That makes the current test of trendline resistance especially important.
Trading Scenarios
🔻 Preferred: A rejection from the trendline resistance could push EURUSD toward 1.14970, with 1.14400 as the next downside objective.
🟢 Alternative: A decisive close above 1.15710 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest buyers have enough momentum to extend the rally toward fresh highs. EURUSD Will it finally break the 1W MA100 after more than 1year?The EURUSD pair continues to trade within its 2026 Channel Down since the beginning of the year but in the past month following the June 24 Low, it has turned sideways. This consolidation is progressively coming under the heavy pressure of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is holding as Resistance since May 19.
At the same time, the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) offer Support very close to the current price action. Technically we are ahead of a major break-out as, as long as the Channel Down holds, the price will look for the first break below its 1W MA100 since late March 2025.
If that break takes place, expect the current Bearish Leg to complete at least a -2.56% decline, targeting the 0.618 Channel Fibonacci at 1.1200.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 EURUSD This is the start of a 1.01800 correction.Last week (June 15, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal for the EURUSD pair, right at the top of its 2-month Channel Down:
Our 1.14450 Target got hit fairly quickly and now the price tests exactly on the 3-month Support Zone. The situation is now transferred to the wider outlook and the 1W time-frame to get a better understanding of the long-term trend.
This is where EURUSD continues to replicate the early 2021 peak formation as we've shown in previous analyses. Following the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) rejection and subsequent break below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the price now eyes the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on that, we expect the pair to target 1.10700 on the medium-term, which is the May 12 2025 Low and the last strong Support before much lower levels.
In 2021 the break below the 1W MA50 initiated a brutal correction which in less than a year reached the Support of the last Low. That is currently at 1.01800 and that is our long-term Target.
It is worth checking the amazing time (as well as the obvious structural) similarities, with the distance from the January 13 2025 bottom to the recent April 13 2026 High (455 days) almost as long as the March 16 2020 - May 24 2021 (434 days).
Observe also how similar the 1W RSI patterns are between the two fractals. We are currently on the Arc Phase where it should find temporary support on the green zone and consolidate like it did within June - August 2021.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 EURUSD Channel Down topped, starting new Bearish Leg.Last week (June 08, see chart below), the EURUSD pair gave a Channel Down bottom Buy Signal, which easily hit our 1.15900 short-term Target:
Now the same pattern is issuing a Sell Signal as the price already broke above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and approached the top of the Channel Down. At the same time, the 4H RSI hit its 3-week Resistance Zone.
As long as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holds as Resistance, we expect the pattern to initiate a new Bearish Leg, targeting the lower Support Zone on a -1.59% decline at 1.14450.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 EURUSD Channel Down bottomed. Rebound or break-out?Last week (June 01, see chart below), we gave a short-term Sell Signal on the EURUSD pair, which hit today exactly our 1.15000 Target before rebounding:
This rebound is caused by the buying pressure at the bottom of the 1.5-month Channel Down. As long as it holds, target the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) at 1.15900. If the price breaks below the pattern, switch to a short, targeting the bottom of the Support Zone at 1.14150.
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Short
