Although there are quite a few earnings announcements up next week, none of them appear particularly attractive from both a volatility metric standpoint as well as a liquidity standpoint. For instance, MYL (78/46), EA (73/50), and ROKU (65/82) all have the right volatility metrics, but when you go to work setups, you're confronted with non-$1 wide strikes, not...
TWTR (41/54) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; pictured here is a May 17th 30/39 short strangle. Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/3.50/contract Max Profit: 1.09 Break Evens: 28.91/40.09 Delta/Theta: -3.99/4.92 Front Week to May Opex Volatility Differential: 41.5% Notes: Look to put a play on in the waning hours of the Monday...
EARNINGS: NFLX and IBM both announce on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on something in the waning hours of Monday's session if you're going to do a volatility contraction play. Pictured here is a NFLX (42/46) 25/10 iron condor,* with the short option strikes at the 25 delta; the longs at the 10 (as of Friday close). Metrics: $825 max profit; $1675...
Economic reform isn't going as well as hoped, the Brazilian bubble is popping. Note that their market hit ATH, it looks like a double top due to currency exchange rates. EWW whipsawed on it's way down last summer, expecting the same here. Short any pops up, watch both iBov and USD/BRL exchange rates.
Papel exatamente no suporte, possibilidade pullback ainda hj. Mercado estressado, onde dólar ainda não subiu com o derretimento de PETR4. Vindo a subir, arrasta SUZB3 pra cima junto.
Ainda pode corrigir um pouco mais, mas não deve perder o canal de alta. Ótimo relação RR.
Entrar comprado no rompimento superior do triângulo.
Date released on the 1st show South Africa to be contracting at a faster pace (worsening), express caution!
Trade of the Week (May Cycle): Pictured here is an EWZ (29/34) May 17th 37/45 short strangle: 1.14 credit, .57 at 50% max, break evens at 35.86/46.14, delta -1.46, theta 2.87. Obvious Alternatives: EWZ May 17th 41 short straddle, 3.91 credit, .98 at 25% max, break evens at 37.09/44.91, delta -4.6, theta 4.01. Notes: Pros: High implied, high implied relative to...
Análisis del índice EEM (Emergentes) y EWZ (Brasil).
Short term pullback but big bull run coming
My screeners aren't showing me a ton of things for either earnings-related volatility contraction plays and/or just Plain Jane premium selling, so I'm largely looking just to work what I have on, do any adjustments that are necessary, and wait for a higher volatility environment (VIX is at sub-15 here) to deploy capital back into premium selling. The Chinese...
Last July I put out a video suggesting that Brazil was a great opportunity to allocate capital (linked below). At the time the business cycle had turned from contraction to expansion and from a technical standpoint, we were sitting on support. Today, +48.6% higher the risk is rising, the cycle is still relatively strong but our technicals are suggesting we...
If the price holds above this level by tomorrow, we are going for another bullish leg. Espectacular amounts of money have gone into Brazil. Will this continue? Bradesco might be the best proxy for this.
After freezing itself from a clear downward channel, Anim3 confirmed major inverted head and shoulders bottom pattern. Now, there may be a short swing trade buy opportunity as ANIM3 just confirmed bullish flag pattern with strong volume, continuing medium to longterm rising trend.
Trapped in an expanding triangle, tomorrow should be a down day.