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FCPO: Looking for SHORT.MYX:FCPO1! Price is still trapped within the range between 4687 and 4370. Overall bias still favors the bearish side.
There are three parameters to consider:
Parameter 1:
If price breaks 4518 and closes below it, bearish continuation is likely, initially toward 4445, then potentially toward 4370.
Parameter 2:
If price breaks 4575 and continues higher toward the 4600 area, the overall outlook remains bearish. Therefore, I will still be looking for short opportunities.
Parameter 3:
If price breaks 4575, continues higher, breaks the 4600 area, and closes higher, the bearish probability becomes lower. A further break above 4687 would be significant because 4687 is also a 4H swing high. A break above this level may signal that the bias is starting to shift bullish. In that case, it is better to stand aside and observe the next price action.
Happy trading 💰🚀. Short 
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16/4/26 Can Bulls Create A Pullback? Strong or Weak?
The market formed a second leg sideways to down, trading below the 20-day EMA and testing near the 4430 level.
In our last report, we said traders would watch if bears could create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would stall around the 20-day EMA or around the 4450-4500 area instead.
Bulls view the current move as a deep pullback and hope to get a retest of the April 1 high, even if it makes a lower high; forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.
They want the market to reverse back above the 20-day EMA.
If the market trades lower, they hope the 4000 or the 4350 prior breakout point will act as support.
Bears created a tight bear channel down from a higher high major trend reversal.
The move down is strong enough for traders to expect a second leg sideways to down after a pullback.
If the market trades higher, bears want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for April up +26.77% in the first 10 days for SPPOMA
• Refineries: So far, buying according to spot futures level. Appetite looks ok.
• Exports: Export in April first 15 days down -34.18% - Per ITS
The market formed a tight bear channel trading below the 20-day EMA, indicating persistent selling.
For now, traders will watch if bears can continue create follow-through to test the 4350 area.
Or will the market form a pullback to the 20-day EMA in the days ahead?
If a pullback forms, traders will watch the strength of the move. If it is strong with consecutive strong bull bars, traders will expect a higher retest of the April 1 high. If it is weak and lacking in follow-through buying, traders will expect a lower price moving forward.
Andrew 9/4/26 Bears Need FT Selling to Show Control
Wednesday's candlestick (April 8) was a big bear bar testing the 20-day EMA.
In our last report, we said traders would watch if bulls could create a strong breakout above the 2025 high, or if the market would stall around these levels, followed by a pullback to the 20-day EMA this week.
Bulls see the current move as a deep pullback and want the third leg sideways to up with the first two legs being March 9 and April 1.
At the least, they want a retest of the April 1 high, even if it makes a lower high.
They want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
If the market trades lower, they hope the area around 4450-4500 would act as support.
Bears view the recent move as a retest the prior high (March 9), and want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal.
Bears need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows trading far below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for Apri up +15.63%
• Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
• Exports: Export in April first 5 days down -51.49% - Per ITS
The market formed a second leg sideways to up to retest the prior high, forming a higher high followed by a deep pullback yesterday following the ceasefire in the Middle East conflict.
For now, traders will watch if bears can create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA or around the 4450-4500 area instead.
Andrew 6/4/26 Market Trading Sideways to Up, No Significant Bear Bars
The market recently retested the March 9 high and the 2025 high. The market is currently trading sideways around this area in the last few session.
Bulls want a strong breakout above these levels followed by a measured move to around 5350 based on the height of the latest leg up to April 1.
At the least, they want the third leg sideways to up with the first two legs being March 9 and April 1.
If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
Bulls need sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of a measured move up.
Bears view the current move as a retest the prior high (March 9), and hope it will stall around the 2025 high area.
They want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal.
If the market trades higher, they want the move to be brief followed by a failed breakout above the 2025 high.
Bears need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for March - up 2.35% per MPOA. April's production should be higher.
• Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
• Exports: Export in March was strong. April TBD
The market formed a second leg sideways to up to retest the prior high, forming a higher high.
So far, there is no ceasefire or permanent solution to the Middle East conflict. Any further escalation or de-escalation will have a significant impact on commodities such as crude oil.
For now, traders will see if bulls can create a strong breakout above the 2025 high.
Or will the market stall around these levels, followed by a pullback to the 20-day EMA this week.
Andrew 25/3/26 Can Bears Continue Creating Consecutive Bear Bars?
Tuesday's candlestick was a bear bar closing near its low.
The market opened higher last night and gapped down this morning at the open. The daily candlestick is currently a bearish bar, trading below yesterday's low (as of 10:36 a.m.).
Bulls want a retest of last week's high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high. So far, the retest formed a lower high (March 16).
Bulls need sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest of the March 9 high.
They hope the current pullback will be weak and sideways.
If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
Bears view the recent move as a second leg sideways to up, retesting the prior high, and hope it will form a lower high (March 16). So far, this is the case.
Bears need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are firmly back in control.
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for March - Sppoma 15 days - Down -5.28%
• Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
• Exports: ITS March - 20 days up ++38.1%
The market formed a second leg sideways to up to retest the high, forming a lower high.
So far, there is no ceasefire or permanent solution to the Middle East conflict. Any further escalation or de-escalation will have a significant impact on commodities such as crude oil.
Traders will see if the bears continue to create strong bear bars.
Or will the pullback lower be weak and sideways with overlapping candles and prominent tails below bars?
Andrew 19/3/26 Can Bulls Create Strong Bull Bars? Or Fail?
Wednesday’s candlestick (Mar. 18) was a big bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail below after opening higher, and closing far below the prior day's low.
We said traders would see if the current retest of last week's high (March 9) stalls at a lower high, which is now the case, or if the recent pullback would be minor and temporary.
Currently, at 10:40 a.m., the market opened higher during the night session and is currently trading lower from the night session, forming an inside bear bar.
Bulls want a retest of last week's high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high. So far, the retest formed a lower high (March 16).
Bulls need sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest of the March 9 high.
They hope the current pullback will be weak and sideways.
Bears view the current move as a second leg sideways to up to retest the prior high and hope it will form a lower high. So far, this is the case.
Bears need to create strong bear bars to show they are firmly back in control.
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for March - Sppoma 15 days - Down -5.28%
• Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
• Exports: ITS March - 15 days up +43. 51%
The market experienced a significant upward spike on March 9, followed by a deep pullback and a second leg sideways to up to retest the high, forming a lower high.
So far, there is no ceasefire or permanent solution to the Middle East conflict. Any further escalation or de-escalation will have a significant impact on commodities such as crude oil.
Traders will see if the current move retest of last week's high (March 9) stalls at a lower high, which is the case now.
Or will the pullback be minor and temporary?
Andrew 18/3/26 Current Pullback Minor or Start of Reversal?
Tuesday’s candlestick (Mar. 16) was a bear bar closing near its low with a prominent tail above after gapping down at the open.
We said traders would see if bulls could create a strong retest of last week's high (March 9), or if the move up would be weak; overlapping candlesticks, prominent upper tails or bear bars.
Currently 11.20am, the market opened higher during the night session and continued lower, trading below yesterday's low.
Bulls want a retest of last week's high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high. So far, the retest formed a lower high
Bulls need sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest of the March 9 high.
They hope the pullback in the last 2 days will be weak and sideways.
Bears view the current move as a second leg sideways to up to retest the prior high and hope it will form a lower high.
Bears need to create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
Fundamentals:
• Production: Production for March - Sppoma 15 days - Down -5.28%
• Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
• Exports: ITS March - 15 days up +43. 51%
The market experienced a significant upward spike on March 9, followed by a deep pullback in response to the movement of Crude Oil.
So far, there is no ceasefire or permanent solution to the Middle East conflict. Any further escalation or de-escalation will have a significant impact on commodities such as crude oil.
Traders will see if the current move retest of last week's high (March 9) stalls at a lower high, which is the case now.
Or will the pullback today and yesterday be minor and temporary?
Andrew Long 
