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Fear

BTC big shortFinally something big is coming up and it is a short opportunity for BTC. As you can see there is huge bearish divergence on RSI, bearish divergence on MACD, all on daily chart, what did not happened for very long time. Everybody is bullish on social media, red laser eyes and another shits but BTC need correction and it is irreversible and necessary. My targets and potential levels are two. First around 40k (Im sure that will happen) and second what im not sure if happen is 20K. On weekly chart is also huge bearish divergence on RSI, what can also tell you that everybody should be aware of dump. It is really good for BTC that institutions are buying and everybody want bitcoin, but what will happen if they start to be in loss after btc bitcoin dump ? If they sell, we are gonna have a big problem. So there is also question, what reaction of big institutions will be after big starts dump, if they will have balls to hold it or they start to sell and big fear will spread into the market. If anybody finds my thought helpfull, please iam welcomed for btc gifts :D my btc wallet: bc1qq5tplyvek08rzpldz8dnnx2zqmhlx4swxevft4
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Lubox
6
Say it with me....au·dac·i·tyNo charting today just some good Sentiment for you to consider...Stay Calm, Stay Humble, Stay Focused. Good Sunday to all the followers and supporters of TheShark. Its appreciated and I continue to try to add value to assist you along your journey of these amazing market cycles. I have received close to 20 emails in the past couple hours. I respect the worry and fear that many of you are feeling right now. Truth be told its a legit worry and the risks are huge in crypto. Lets get something straight if you have the audacity to make and expect the kinds of returns that crypto has gifted many of us with you must understand the risks associated. I wish assets like ETH and Bitcoin could just climb forever and never look back but that is just simply not how free markets work. If you want the chance at generational wealth you gotta have the guts to buy this stuff when no one else will. Buying the crypto covid crash was one of the scariest moments of my entire life. However this was the best decision I ever made except marrying my wife who gifted me with a house full of little girls ;). Do you find it odd that so many of the traders and youtubers are all so negative right now about crypto? I haven't seen it this negative since Covid. This should be your very first clue that we are ready to rally again. So many say they will buy the dip but lack the fortitude strength to push the button. Did you see ETH bounce off the ETH/BTC .030 mark like I mapped out last week? For the most part Shark Supports on both Bitcoin and ETH held up just as suspected. You can never be perfect in trading but the quest is to get close. I strongly suspect that this last swell downward will be our last downward move before this market just takes off again. So if you're still here with me compliment yourself for hanging tuff I know how stressful this can be and emotionally how taxing this stuff can be on life, family and your happiness. Remember that anything worthwhile comes with risk and comes at a price. Sacrifice brings opportunities to the few willing to take the risk. For the faint of heart you would do well to not check your account balances today. Shark is going to hop on the phone and get the whales on board. Don't think I won't! Is 40k on Bitcoin still in the realm? Yes is possible. Is ETH 1100-1200 still on the table, it sure is. Will you ever bottom these Assets perfectly? NO. But Shark is going to get on the phone and I'm telling you I bet we don't see these levels today and that next week we seatbelt up and start the next summit higher. This big move could even start late afternoon or evening today. I have some good charting indicators that support this too. I feel like trading view does a great job showcasing every traders ideas thru charts but this game is not all a science. There is an art side and an emotion side that doesn't get told enough on here. Charts don't give you the guts to step in or the strength to hang on. Ask yourself can I hold my position until the end of May or First part of June? If your answer is yes I really think you will like the outcomes of where this market is headed. If I helped you in anyway today or the countless charts I posted last week hit the like follow the Shark and join the Shiver. I don't regret any moment of my 40 years of life yet because I always went the opposite of everyone else. You have a chance at something amazing right here. These entries on BTC and ETH (Not ALTS) are some of the best I have seen in crypto. There will be a time to close shop take the earnings and leave this space but that time is not yet. Shark will show you the way. BRONSON-TheSHARK
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bronson-TheShark
5
😱Types of Fears in Trading😱Hello! There are several types of fears at the market! There are several main types of fear: 💡- fear of losing all capital in the account. One of the most common fears. The trader clearly understands that the numbers in the terminal are his money, and their reduction limits his financial capabilities in the future. Under fear of losing an even larger sum, a market participant does even more stupid things or even refuses to trade; 💡- fear of losing money in a losing position. Similar concerns arise during the transaction period under the influence of strong market volatility . This kind of fear is easily correctable; 💡- fear in time not to see a signal to enter or exit the market. More often it's faced by newcomers, who will not imagine what risks are in the trader’s deals and how to protect themselves from them; 💡- general fear of working on the market. It can act as a negative background and prevent you from making the right decision. Often, such fears are eliminated by gaining certain knowledge and experience on the exchange; 💡- fear of receiving another disadvantageous deal. Such fear leads to the appearance of excess fuss. As a result, the trader misses a really good deal; 💡- fear of early fixation of income (fear of loss profit). The position could still be kept open, but the trader reduces his risks, closes the deal and receives less profit. For many market participants, the fear of making such a “mistake” is even stronger than the fear of losing trades. Guys, it's ok to feel all types of fears ! Especially for those , who new at the market ! Everyone went through that. Someone overcame own fears, someone is trying to overcome, but someone hasn't gotten along with emotions and left the market! Remember, if you have a goal - go forward!💪🏻 Look only ahead and listen only yourself !🙏🏻 If you wanna become successful - you'll surely become that!!!🚀🚀🚀 Let's become better together ♥️ Stay tuned by Rocket Bomb 🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
24
Back to the moon with UVXY! 🌑 Volatility burts in 3...2...1 🔥Hi mates! Another big move on AMEX:UVXY is coming! Last week there was huge buying in orderflow on AMEX:UVXY . Now 10 - 9.95 its very strong supply zone. We could observe TVC:VIX is rising in tandem with CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY its not good sign for equities for coming week. My target for this week on AMEX:UVXY is 12.46. Risk / Reward is very favorable on this trade. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Tomasgei
4
What goes up must come down. BTC has taken a ride since 2015, I watched from the sidelines as more and more people became overcome with the excitement of this new currency. The “gap” up’s when it took hold and blasted off to north of 20,000 then 30k then 40k, were unprecedented. I’ve been involved with investments since 1997 and I have seen nothing like this and won’t ever again. I do think bitcoin will eventually make the 100,000 mark, when that happens is any bodies guess. Healthy investments do not skyrocket to all time highs and stay there like this seems to have done. The “gaps” this needs to fill are down in the 11,000 range I believe? If these “gaps” per say don’t get filled, any move higher becomes incredibly dangerous for a landslide melt down. Every market in the world has seen this sort of behavior. Here is how big money managers think “buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high” I know that may seem Cliché, but it’s true in any investment market. What holds this coin price at its highs is continuous buying but not only continuous buying but a stable source of new buyers. When bitcoin reaches a high of highs after racing upwards that of a Saturn rocket it will surely endure the consequences of a parabolic climb which is a generational meltdown. We must remeber that China has been mining some 80% of the worlds bitcoin over the past 10 years..if this doesn’t scare anybody I don’t know where you live. If any populous or economy invests more than an alternative invenstment weighting in bitcoin or any other speculative investment, they risk destroying their entire economic system and collapsing. If one doesn’t see the automatic buying and selling movement and electronic support countermeasures big miners or holders of the coin take to ensure this parabolic soar to inevitable highs you aren’t looking close enough. Everybody risks losing and losing big. It seems the masses want bitcoin to reach enormous highs, preaching it will replace modern currency driving the price upwards of 100,000 per coin. I am a realist and while I do believe bitcoin and other crypto currencies will achieve great value and use in the future it will not replace the worlds fiat currencies. Be careful and realistic. If you’ve been hoddling your coins for years you have done very well for yourself yes, however, remeber how one “locks” in profits, they sell and hold “cash” or what ever stable fiat currency they live with. This is not a free ride and not everybody running this massive machine has good intentions. If China decides to capture and lock in profit at any given time, it will cause a cataclysmic disaster and melt down of an entire system. Don’t be caught holding the bag at the top. When PayPal said they were all in processing bitcoin it seemingly shot north with supersonic speeds. People who wouldn’t invent in an index fund for it was too much risk are now investing millions in something that seems too good to be true. I am not saying bitcoin will not be useful or even saying it won’t survive, I am simply saying be CAFEFUL and REALISTIC. This bubble has consequences just like the real estate financial bubble of the early 2000’s. The USA had the means at that time to inject trillions into a collapsing system...we have no more levers to pull or safety valves to open. I predict a gap cover in the 10,000-11,500 range before then skyrocketing to new highs in the 40-50,000 range before starting the fibbinaci cycle all over again. The last up cycle will be very evident by which the volume of sellers will spike to all time highs within minutes. That may be next month next year or in 5 years IDK....but it will happen. The stock market has stop gaps to ensure panic selling doesn’t destroy a healthy market, bitcoin has no such stop gaps or safety valves to ensure complete and total collapse of a system. And...the most important one. Bitcoin has no centralized governing body or enforcement to ensure criminals can’t steal or destroy a system in which so many have put faith. It’s the ultimate Dichotomy, Bitcoin excites so many because of its decentralized governing systems however those same Reasons we all “love to love” bitcoin could very well be the same reasons it sets up to cause global economic catastrophe. My prediction again is this...falls to fill CME gaps with fake trend reversals costing traders millions chasing the bottom but. Dollar cost average your buys and lock in your gains. 11,000 back up to 50,000 then back down to 24,000 before pushing up to 75,000. 100,000 is the price that triggers a global sell off meltdown and bring financial devistation to the greedy. Be careful out there. Diversify and have a plan.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by renderfy
1
Get ready for extreme fear: Q1 2021 (bearish reversal) BTCAfter topping out around $42,000 we've been breaking multiple ltf support levels and have started entering htf support breaks. Today we officially broke the bullish uptrend which has been intact for almost a month now (bearish reversal) What does this mean? Top traders have started selling bitcoin as we're now in Q1 2021 and this would be a perfect time to set the yearly low (probably within the next 2 months) I'd be looking for something similar to March 2020 for crypto and the stock market. Q4 2021 will be about the results, just like 2020. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Key support levels on the way down: 1: $27,333 (0.618 fibonacci level) 2: $22,888 (0.5 fibonacci level) 3: $18,444 (0.382 fibonacci level) If we close a daily, weekly, or monthly under $20,000 we'll likely head to $13,800-$14,800 from which fear will be HIGH and i'd be buying EVERYONE bags $7850 - $9650 (CME GAP) this is the absolute max pain scenario for bitcoin. Previous ATH, macro htf support: $19,6000-$22,400 Please get this technical analysis to 50+ likes to unlock the next daily post for the community! 👍
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by YurloTrades
12
There are no emotional problem in reality...???There are no EMOTIONAL PROBLEM in reality. The problem, you are facing is you do not have any back-tested STRATEGY/SKIL L of identifying what if I do will I get the trades. Another words, you are trying to search a fallen needle in entire city in a limited time. You don’t know what to trade? Which stock(trade) to go for shorting? Should I have to select Short selling or long? Even If I Select at what time should I enter & then exit? => But time is ticking away , worry, concern, , apprehensiveness, consternation, uneasiness, fearfulness, disquiet, fretfulness, agitation, angst, nervousness, tension, stress, misgiving, foreboding, suspense etc.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trade-Technique
19
Fear Index - VIX If it can break this resistance line, then we may see the genuine fear! I wish you good profit! Follow me! Thanks Important Notice - The index, stock, commodity, etc. I share here should not mean that I personally take a position. - It is important that my shares are not interpreted as buy-hold-sell advice in any way. -Please process according to your own risk appetite -You can send me a direct message for your financial, technical or training requests. - Liking the shares and following the account is an important indicator for the continuation of the shares. - All the works I have shared; all the information, drawings, graphics and comments, the notes I have taken for myself and / or my experiments on technical analysis , my training notes. Legal Notice Investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy service: It is offered within the framework of an investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and the customer. The comments and recommendations contained herein are based on the personal opinions of those who make comments and recommendations. These views may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations. Nevertheless, I cannot be held responsible for any direct and / or indirect damages, loss of profit, moral damages and damages that may be incurred by third parties, which may be incurred by investors as a result of the use of the information on the site and the resources used for the site
TVC:VIX
by BistTrader
Tutorial: PC-Indicator - Spar_maDeutsche Version Unterhalb. English version: This indicator is supposed to be another tool to recognize when a panic movement has begun and also ended. Of course, there are other indicators that work very well, but this can also help to identify the timeframe. Description of for using the indicator with the example of the panic sell-off in March: Before the selloff started, two areas can be identified in which the market is being tested. This is when at the same time, the price intersects with the 21 moving average and the put / call indicator. This indicates that something could be wrong (no guarantee, just an indicator). This happened first (marked with 1) when the virus was discovered: Few who had been informed had any idea what might happen. The second "drop" (marked 2) happened when it was publicly announced that such a virus existed. The third time the panic broke out (marked 3) long after the virus was known. The portfolios should have been hedged here at the latest. Shortly before the yellow marking the virus was reported daily and maximum panic were spread. This was the point at which the hedge could theoretically be ended (if you have the courage to do so). However, I myself waited until the 21st and the indicator were clearly broken. This indicator could have helped to save a loss in value of the portfolio by at least 17%. I hope this indicator can continue to perform as well. Please leave a like and subscribe if you are interested in further trading ideas from me. Name of the indicator: “PC-Indicator - Spar_ma” That’s my opinion and should be treated like it. No trade advice! ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Version: Dieser Indikator soll ein weiteres Tool sein um erkennen zu können, wann eine panische Bewegung beendet ist. Natürlich gibt es weitere Indikatoren die sehr gut funktionieren, dieser kann jedoch zusätzlich dabei helfen zu erkennen wann es soweit ist. Beschreibung des Indikators an Beispiel des Panischen sell-offs im März: Bereits vor beginn sind zwei Bereiche zu erkennen, an denen der Markt getestet wird. Dabei kreuzen sich gleichzeitig der Kurs mit dem 21-gleitendem Durchschnitt und dem Put-/Call- Indikator. Das lässt darauf zurückführen, dass etwas kommen könnte. Dies geschah zuerst (mit 1 gekennzeichnet) bei der Entdeckung des Virus: Wenige die Informiert wahren, jedoch ahnten was passieren könnte. Der zweite „Drop“ (mit 2 gekennzeichnet) geschah als öffentlich bekannt gegeben wurde, dass ein solches Virus existiert. Beim dritten Mal brach die Panic aus (mit 3 gekennzeichnet), lange nachdem dieser Virus bekannt gewesen war. Spätestens hier sollte das Konto gehedged worden sein. Erst kurz vor der gelben Markierung wurde täglich vom Virus berichtet und maximale Panic verbreitet. Dies war der Zeitpunkt an dem theoretisch der Hedge beendet werden konnte (wenn man den Mut dazu hat). Ich selbst habe allerdings noch gewartet bis der 21ger und auch der Indikator klar durchbrochen wurde. Dieser Indikator hätte dabei helfen können einen Wertverlust des Kontos um mindestens 17% ersparen zu können. Ich hoffe dieser Indikator kann weiterhin so gut performen. Bitte lasst ein like da und abonniert mich, falls Ihr Interesse an weiteren trading-ideen von mir habt. Name des Indikators: “PC-Indicator – Spar_ma” Dies ist nur meine persönliche Meinung und sollte auch so betrachtet werden. Dies ist keine Handelsempfehlung.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spar_ma
Bitcoin MAJOR UpdatePlease review the current price action of BTC. 1. Bitcoin is still in the Ascending Channel 2. Just broke out of a small bull flag looking to test higher levels 3. Top of the Channel (Red Line) is formed from the bottom support from Bitcoins lowest levels. 4. The top of the Channel is prices at 28-30K 5. Fear & Greed index is at an ATH. 6. Do NOT buy here 7. Expect a 20-40% Correction in the near future 8. Possible Alt Season During Correction - but not confirmed yet Forming another leg up but the trend will end soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by GlobalHealthWealth
Baghodlers wiped out at the bottom as usual + time to go to ath***************** Part 1: An expensive but valuable lesson for Bitcoin bulls ***************** I have not heard much from Bitcoin "investors" in the past 12 months. This is what I kept repeating back then (2018-2019): " The bear market is not over/2019 is a fake bull market (hundreds of them laughed at me) They will refuse to sell until Bitcoin goes into panic mode and there is extreme violent selling, THEN they will disappear (maybe a bit before maybe a bit later) You won't hear again from them They will miss the actual next bull market " And what did happen? Haven't heard from them since then 😏 A few people had youtube channels so we can see them closing them, also not posting anymore, and a few have at least made a goodbye video. I think the bulk really left in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020. Mostly during the scaaaary selling. I am not making this up. You can view my past ideas. Here is the last BTC idea that got a lot of attention from haters calling me an idiot. Feb 21. 54 comments. After this it stopped. I was not getting dozens of hate comments anymore. They just went poof. Who's the idiot now? Checking some profiles, no ideas in 7 months I wonder why. Oh someone is bullish on alts that are down and never going up. I posted an alarmist idea in March 2019 when Bitcoin was really down and bagholders were very scared. The amount of hatred I got was interesting. I got even way more than usual. They were in anxiety mode. And they are all gone. Markets are very good at finding peoples breaking point. Bitcoin found crypto investors breaking point. A very valuable lesson. Some of them might return to trading in the future, like some people came back "older and wiser" after getting burned during the dot-com bubble. And the cycle will repeat itself endlessly. This is actually the most Bitcoin has falling in 24 hours at least since 2013. On Bitfinex, bottom 2 was more scary. Still, the March 2020 scare was a 50% drop in 24 hours and this never happened before as far as I know. Not only was it brutal but there was a first part with a massive drop in a couple of hours then a break where baggies were relieved for sure "the worse it over", and then just a few hours later they got hit with another brutal candle that went much further down. The 2013-2015 bear market ended with 30% drops "only". For sure Bitcoin bulls panicked and saw it going straight to zero "this is it", "it's the end". They clearly were an over emotional bunch. Glad most of them are gone. I want to look at it one more time. It feels good to. You know I tried catching the bottom but that was ridiculous Posted these ideas 3 days apart (Bitcoin going to zero and Bitcoin going to 10,000 when it was at 8300): ***************** Part 2: Bitcoin long target reached ***************** Follow up to this: Got to target but does not mean it is over. European regulators banning bitcoin cfd right when the bagholders were about to make some money 👍 So typical and therefore so predictable People can keep criticizing me insult me but I will keep being right Already 8.5R here! This means it would cover 8 losses. I could be the biggest fool and lost 8 times in a row and still come out ahead. And it's just the start imo. Because I am waiting for the vertical move and I have no seen it yet. My trailing stop is at 4R right now.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
5
Crash Happening?With many outlets warning of a crash this could push sentiment towards a bearish market. COVID cases rising in Europe could indicate a similar fate for the U.S. The stimulus checks not coming as promised and an election that could change the monetary policy and increase taxes on the wealthy that influence the market. This could mean trouble with an eviction crisis coming soon too. The only thing I see getting us out of this is a massive distribution of a vaccine that works. People aren't trusting the idea of a rushed vaccine (wasn't that the plot of I AM LEGEND?) Anyways based on this information, I'd like to submit my analysis of the SPXS which in the heat of the lockdowns rose 150%, and based on this information I will see price targets of 11.10-11.50 which is where I will start a trailing stop. Then I may consider the price 16.60-16.75 based on technical analysis and price action. The trailing stop may hit prior but either way, I will profit while the market tanks. I hope you do too
AMEX:SPXSLong
by JakeBrandonCastro
3
The adventures of leveraged naked ootm option sellersAh the famous "free money" option sellers. Ah the famous strangle strategy. Option sellers. Ok. Naked option sellers. Sooo...? Way out of the money naked option sellers. Let me think... Way out of the money strangle naked option sellers. Getting good. Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers. Oh boy. Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers That Never Cut Their Losses. Not fair for other Darwin award contestants!. They have to be doing it on purpose. A strangle is an absolutely garbage strategy where the writer sells (slightly) out of the money options on both sides. The maximum profit happens when the price stays between both strike rates. Not going to make a full explanation and a drawing, but what is important is it involves option sellers that take small premiums win very often but are at high to unlimited risk. The premium basically means that even if the price goes against you a bit you are still in the green. Out of the money means you have even more breathing space before the price gets to a losing area, and then additionally you have the opposite side premium as additional "breathing room", which in all means the price has to move very much for you to even start being worried. But when it goes that far... careful. Depending on how out of the money the option is the premium can get pretty low... So the option seller won't make alot of money. There is no free lunch. A summary of those strategy is "Picking up pennies in front of freight trains." Ok here is a drawing xd A few people use this, and I know it is taught by Tom Sosnoff that runs a brokerage. You might recognize him in some old documentary & interviews about the 1987 (he was a market maker obligated to buy people bags and "add to loser" and they all were running out of liquidity & had to beg banks for more money so the whole system would not collapse). He is the creator of thinkorswim that he sold to TD Ameritrade for a big bag of money. He published a video recently where he bashed the robinhood effect where down synd- er I mean young credulous investors (and legends like Portnoy) are getting enabled to gamble on risky & complex products they do not understand. Oh wait no he praised it all, said it was wonderful and a new paradigm. Sad. "Hurray optimism" (until the suicide). Not sure what my opinion of him is right now. On the long run those strangle work, and ... well I can't say any idiot can do those clearly with all the clowns blowing up ... but it does not require any prediction ability (you are better off if you can predict low volatility thought), it is maybe complex to understand for novices at first but rather "easy". Someone running such a strategy will often win, and get consistant profits, but the profits are just... small. And funds or individuals using this strategy have to be prepared for big moves that sometimes happen and have a plan to hedge at some point. Tom Sosnoff tells people to "trade small trade often" (another broker telling people to trade often gee didn't expect that). Since this strategy makes little profit, fools have a tendancy to use leverage, sometimes alot. Warren Buffet once said, or more than once, way more, that leverage was the best way to wipe out your wealth. Especially when mixed with ignorance. He uses leverage himself, but not like this, not like these guys... The only way I see leverage maybe making sense with those strategies is say you make 1% a year, so you'd put 90% of your money in a mix of equity indices & risk free with low correlation, then use 10 leverage on the remaining 10% that is used to write options, keep risk managed, so then you make 10% on the 10% and if something goes real wrong you have deep pockets, 9 times the amount... Using a bit or even 2-3 times more capital and more leverage too would not even result in getting wiped out for those that did. They REALLY asked for it. There are plenty of naked option sellers that got wiped out, included hyped or famous ones. Naked selling means you do not own the underlying (so if you never buy until the client exercises his right you will have to first buy the asset at whatever price, or have to buy it from him if he is short potentially at a much higher price than the market price). James Cordier from OptionSellers dot com, Victor Niederhoffer, Karen Supertrader, LJM Preservation And Growth Fund (HAHAHAHA they have a great sense of humor). James Cordier used way out of the money options, so it would look something like that: Wow! We found the holy grail! You cannot lose! He really got zero sympathy, and even his clients did not get much. They either knew it was risky or did not bother how to even put this they did not even bother looking at was option selling was somehow? James Cordier was making tiny profits with huge risk, had very high winrates, and because he made little profits he used extreme leverage to get any significant amount out. He is the epitome of the concept "Picking pennies in front of a freight train". They should use his picture in encyclopedias. Those leverages aren't even poor risk management at that point we reached another stage. Seriously this guy is an absolute psychopath. Victor Niederhoffer used to be a rather famous fund guy, he worked with Soros, he was rather popular I think he wrote in big journals, probably was on tv regularly. He was "one of the best" making 30% a year for 20 years, famous people held him in high regard, he was sort of a mentor to guys that are famous today. But he missed a few braincells. He sold a big amount of naked puts in 1997 then the market crashed. Rekt. Another "myfxbook" loser. Maybe he was just bad all along and got lucky for 20 long years. Outlier. He probably whine that it was just "20 sigma bad luck". He blew up again 10 years later 😂. Rekt by the trash securities crisis of 2007. Oh ye another "free money one". If you saw the movie "the big short" you might remember scenes where bankers were laughing and partying at the "idiots that bought options against CDO/MBS". He was not a banker himself so Bush did not use taxpayer money to bail him out. He was not unlucky actually, he was very lucky to have lasted 20 years the previous time. Dumb people often have Dunning Kruger... Karen Supertrader was a random old lady that got into the Sosnoff noob strategy. It is very hard to lose money while keeping it small with that one, so idk I guess this is why he pitches it to complete noobs that would all become day traders and lose their money quickly. Hey they'd just lose their money otherwise, at least here they are making a little. It is true, can't even blame him he is maybe saving noobs. Should just let natural selection do its job just like getting rich slow is actually not slower, helping people is not actually helping. She was an outlier in a normal distribution, mistook that for greatness, and started a fund managing to get idiots to invest hundreds of million. 150 I think. She ended up losing if I recall a good 50 million, hide the losses as unrealized (which she rolled over each month and used new positions to offset), while still collecting fees. I remember seing her interview on how great she was and thinking "ye give it a little while" and then doing some research, and oh ye blew up haha. Didn't see that coming. I don't get people brains. If people use certain strategies, it is mathematically impossible, literally impossible, they can get certain returns without taking huge risk or committing fraud. Why is it so hard for the creatures on this planet (especially regulators) to comprehend? It is physically impossible. Proven. This is not economy or climate science where randos come up with their ooga booga opinions and apocalyptic calls, mathematical PROOF means it is true period. Really blows my mind. How are all those mouth breathers even alive? If a strategy no matter what is contained in Upper Bound Lower Bound and we are outside of the bounds it's not because of divine intervention or a parallel universe. I don't even know how they think. Lmao I crack up when I try to imagine their thought process. It's like the market moves 10% in a month, and someone tells you they simply bought & held, made 60%, and used no leverage. And some people are stupid enough to think this is possible??????????????????????????????????????? Wow. LJM Preservation And Growth is just the funniest. "Preservation" in the name, then goes to the option selling casino with infinite leverage. People trusted it blindly because it has preservation in the name? XD Reminds me of some groups in the USA self proclaimed "good guys". Idiots that fall for this get the karma they deserve. You can find stories and read about it on the internet it is all over the place. The best bits is how they always find excuses. The fund came up with "there is no way we could have predicted the 911 attacks". The stupidity of this excuse is really beyond. I don't even know where to start. Well I don't think I need to explain. They clearly were in the wrong business entirely. "Oh no there are risks in the business" 😂 One of optionsellers client shared a google doc of his 1 million (in total) portfolio, here it is, it goes from left to right day by day so you can see how the positions evolve and how James Cordier holds onto his losers forever, until death pulls them apart. docs.google.com You can find the second to last idea James Cordier published on seeking alpha here: seekingalpha.com He got all excited at the "free money" (greed & euphoria) and then sh** his pants (fear), held the bags, blew up. The he was less excited (pain regret sorrow etc). Emotions -> Emotions -> Emotions. Mistakes -> Mistakes -> Mistakes. Like a baws. And the guy had 20 years experience or so. His last idea was a short on coffee and he was very right. Should have just went short for real with leverage since he was gambling anyway rather than sell for "only" 1.8 million. The website has his ideas since 2009. You know these people I think they just hate losing. He probably was right often enough but I am not going to backtest his ideas got better things to do (got a new zombie game to try haven't been able to play games in weeks because idk they bore me but at the same time I really need a distraction I must be alone having to force myself to play games rather than the other way around). It is not the case for all of them of course, but I am sure alot would make money without having to use 50 leverage if they just applied their analysis and accepted to take the risks, rather than look for some really stupid trick to always win. As a speculator you get rewarded for absorbing risk/volatility. Sometimes down sometimes up, but on average more up than down. How can some people be in the business, and not as market makers or arbitragers or brokers, for 20 or 30 years and still look for "sure thing" strategies and be afraid of taking a loser? Who cares if the portfolio moves a bit in 10 or 20 years the end result is what will matter. It is clearly not for every one. They should know better and be prepared for the "big events", but they go pavlov brainwash and emotional and feel good about it, as long as it has not happened they think it won't (and even once it does some don't even learn and think they really fell under the wrath of god and did nothing wrong as demonstrated by Victor Niederhoffer, seriously how dumb is this guy? I don't have a quarck of respect for him.) If you are able to survive those big events, accept small drawdowns and they do not cause you to make mistakes, you are already ahead of many. Another obstacle to be making money in this game. When you "have it" it really seems like a no brainer, but yes there really are alot of people unable to climb that obstacle. Aren't 90% of casual investors bagholders? With "strong hands". So afraid to take a loss. Strong hands ye right, weak chins. The receding chins are using computers now so they don't piss themselves, but I don't think the computers will be able to do everything, just the small day trading. If we get to the point computers can go THAT far to predict the future weeks away (not just M5 stat arb etc) we won't even need markets anymore anyway, and we'll be too busy visiting other galaxies xd Imagine science without all the dogmas and politics. Imagine politics without all the politics. And so on. I ain't worried. My tip to profitable speculators: learn to invest, find a passive income stream, you never know if you'll still be making money in 10 years, but don't be too worried all opportunities just disappear (unless communism). Yes you never know if it is a pullback or the end, it is easy to look at it in hindsight compared to being in it and think "oh it just goes up".
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MrRenev
6
Psychology of OTHER People in the Market Matters More Than YoursMorning Traders - The next in our series of education posts is going to focus solely on Psychology. specifically regarding the psychology of OTHER people in the market. Once you nail this topic its going to give you a huge edge on the market. Any trader is always looking whether the next few price swings are going to be bullish or are they going to be bearish? That is the essence of trading - If you know the next few price swings are going to be bullish then it makes it easy to make money right?! Once you have this identified then you simply just need to time your entry, the safest way to do that would be to be watching for a short term pullback against your bias of where the price swings will be headed. Its important that when looking at these price swings, you watch HOW the price moves, don't need to concern yourself with any chart patterns or candlesticks, but ask yourself as you watch the price move, is the price moving with strength or weakness? If price is pulling back from your bias with weakness then this is an opportunity to place your entries and wait for the price swings you have anticipated. If price pulls bask with strength then it could be time to consider you bias again and stay on the sidelines. The real key when analysing price action both in the long term price swings you see and in each movement within those price swings is the psychology of everybody else that is trading in that market with you. Much has been written and spoken about regarding making sure you own mindset and psychology is right within trading but I personally feel understanding how other people are feeling within the market is worth so much more. Once you understand how other people are feeling, their emotions etc then its becomes easier you predict their actions. One of the most powerful emotions we feel that affects our decision making is fear. Im sure everyone can easily anticipate the actions of a fearful person, so we just need to translate that into the chart. So start watching where are people getting trapped into bad positions? When are they feeling fearful that they made the wrong trade? When are they praying for the market to turn around? These are the traders you want to target because by their nature these are weak traders and likely unprofitable ones, you want to watch for points in the market where these traders know they have got it wrong.. So you should be looking to take the other side of their trades and profit from their mistakes. The other major aspect of fear you should look for in markets is FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. You see this type of emotion ALL the time in markets, its essentially the market equivalent as when you see people run for the tube / underground as the warning beeps have started and doors are closing... People who have been sat watching the market for a while suddenly see it moving in one direction and start running to enter the trade as quickly as they can... the psychology of this is that they will likely enter with the wrong position size, they haven't analysed the new market conditions that were different from when they were watching the market before, and most importantly their risk management has now gotten out of control. When you see after an already strong price movement that it starts to slow down momentarily and then rockets again in the same original direction - This is typical of FOMO trading. Its wise when you see this to start thinking about places some trades opposite to these traders. So when people say you should analyse price action - this is the most powerful way to do that. Its not about head and shoulders patterns, its not about doji candles or anything else you hear spoken about... Its simply about human emotions and how they are expressed within the charts. To be successful you need to start identifying the moments and points in the chart where you know people will buy after you have already brought, or where they will sell after you have already sold.
Education
by JoelWarby