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EURUSD Breakdown in Play — Is More Downside Coming?EURUSD ( OANDA:EURUSD ) appears to have broken the support zone($1.1684-$1.1643) and is currently pulling back toward that area. Since the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) is likely to continue its uptrend, this dollar strength could push EURUSD lower. From an Elliott Wave perspective, given the recent decline, we should anticipate continued downward corrective waves. I expect EURUSD to drop at least toward the support lines and test the heavy support zone($1.1572-$1.1390). If it breaks the support lines with strong momentum, we could see further declines toward around $1.1540. First Target: Support lines Second Target: $1.1540 Stop Loss(SL): $1.1696(Worst) What’s your view on EURUSD? Can it break through the heavy support zone($1.1572-$1.1390), or not? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 Euro/U.S Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
1
GBPUSD at Risk of Reversal — Watch This CloselyBefore diving into the GBPUSD ( FX:GBPUSD ) analysis, we should note recent Middle East news: it appears Iran has attacked U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, heightened tensions like this drive the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) higher, which puts significant pressure on USD pairs. One such pair is GBPUSD, so let’s look at the technical analysis. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems GBPUSD has completed its five-wave upward impulse, and we might now anticipate a corrective downward move. Also, we can see a negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks. I expect GBPUSD to have a bearish move—especially with the U.S. market open—and to drop at least toward $1.3420. Target: $1.3420 Stop Loss(SL): $1.3660 What’s your opinion on GBPUSD? Do you think it will break lower, or might it find support? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 British Pound / U.S Dollar Analysis (GBPUSD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
1
GBPUSD – MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (DAILY / WEEKLY + 1H)📊 GBPUSD – MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (DAILY / WEEKLY + 1H) Pair: GBPUSD Timeframe: Daily / Weekly + 1H Date: May 4, 2026 ──────────────────────────── 📍 HIGHER TIMEFRAME STRUCTURE (DAILY / WEEKLY) ──────────────────────────── ✅ BULLISH FLAG PATTERN confirmed on DAILY and WEEKLY timeframes. This is a strong continuation pattern. ──────────────────────────── 📌 KEY LEVELS (MANUAL) ──────────────────────────── 🔴 RESISTANCE 1 (TP1): 1.36570 🔴 RESISTANCE 2 (TP2): 1.37600 🟢 KEY LEVEL / DECISION ZONE: 1.35750 🟢 DEMAND / FVG ZONE: Below 1.35750 (liquidity area) 🔻 SELL TARGET (Support): 1.34580 ──────────────────────────── 🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO (BUY SETUP) – 1H TIMEFRAME ──────────────────────────── 📌 CONDITIONS (MUST HAPPEN IN ORDER): 1️⃣ Price reaches FVG + DEMAND zone 2️⃣ Liquidity is grabbed (stop hunt) 3️⃣ Price stabilizes ABOVE 1.35750 4️⃣ Bullish CHOC (Change of Character) OR BOS confirmed on 1H ✅ BUY SETUP (after retest to DEMAND zone): Entry: On pullback to DEMAND zone / FVG Stop Loss: 1.35400 Take Profit 1: 1.36570 (Resistance 1) Take Profit 2: 1.37600 (Resistance 2) ──────────────────────────── 🔻 BEARISH SCENARIO (SELL SETUP) – 1H TIMEFRAME ──────────────────────────── 📌 CONDITIONS (MUST HAPPEN IN ORDER): 1️⃣ Price reaches BELOW 1.35750 2️⃣ Price stabilizes BELOW 1.35750 3️⃣ Bearish BOS (Break of Structure) confirmed on 1H ✅ SELL SETUP (after retest to SUPPLY zone): Entry: On pullback to SUPPLY zone (after breakdown) Stop Loss: 1.36000 Take Profit 1: 1.34580 (Support) ──────────────────────────── 📌 SUMMARY OF MY SETUP ──────────────────────────── 🟢 BUY: Condition: FVG/DEMAND liquidity grab + above 1.35750 + CHOC/BOS Entry: Pullback to DEMAND zone SL: 1.35400 TP: 1.36570 → 1.37600 🔻 SELL: Condition: Below 1.35750 + bearish BOS + retest to SUPPLY Entry: Pullback to SUPPLY zone SL: 1.36000 TP: 1.34580 ──────────────────────────── 🧠 MY BIAS ──────────────────────────── Higher timeframe (Daily/Weekly) = BULLISH (Bull Flag) I prefer BUY setups aligned with HTF trend. However, I also have a SELL plan if structure breaks down. I wait for: - Liquidity grab - CHOC / BOS confirmation - Retest before entry NO CHASE. ONLY CONFIRMATION. ──────────────────────────── 🏷️ TAGS ──────────────────────────── #GBPUSD #Forex #BullFlag #Daily #Weekly #1H #CHOC #BOS #FVG #DemandZone #SupplyZone #PriceAction ──────────────────────────── ⚠️ NOTICE ──────────────────────────── My personal analysis based on my drawn levels and structure. Not financial advice. DYOR.
by FXSMARTT
GBP/USD – Buy-Side Liquidity Sweep + Potential Retracement SetupPrice has rallied strongly into the buy-side liquidity zone around 1.35440, grabbing the liquidity resting above previous equal highs. This move indicates a classic liquidity sweep before a possible pullback. After the sweep, I’m expecting price to retrace toward the mitigation zone (grey area) before forming a bullish continuation setup. 🔍 Key Points: • Market tapped into a major liquidity pool at 1.3544 • Strong impulse move suggests short-term exhaustion • Ideally looking for a retracement into the 1.3515–1.3520 zone • If buyers step in, we may see continuation toward higher highs 📈 Bias: Bullish after retracement 🎯 Ideal Buy Zone: 1.3515–1.3520 ⚠️ Invalidation: Break below 1.3490 🧠 Classic Smart Money play: liquidity grab → pullback → continuation.
by TheWallstreetCapital
CAD/JPY – Bearish Rejection at Supply Zone (4H Analysis)Price has tapped into the 4H supply zone and is showing multiple rejections, indicating weakening bullish momentum. After failing to break above the 116.80 resistance area, the pair is now forming lower highs, suggesting sellers are stepping in. Currently, price is retesting the broken structure around 116.60–116.65, and if this retest holds, we may see a continuation to the downside. 🔻 Bearish Outlook: If price breaks and retests below minor support, the next target sits near the 116.150 demand zone, which aligns with previous structure. 📉 Bias: Bearish 🎯 Target: 116.150 ⚠️ Invalidation: Clean break above 116.80 zone This move aligns with overall exhaustion after a strong upside rally — expecting a healthy correction before any further bullish continuation.
Short
by TheWallstreetCapital
EURUSD Hit Resistance — But the Chart Is Flashing a Warning!As I expected in the previous idea , EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) started its upward move from the support zone($1.1684-$1.1627) and reached the full target. Currently, EURUSD is moving within a resistance zone($1.1850-$1.1765). It had a strong drop from the resistance zone, and it seems to be in a corrective phase now. From an Elliott Wave perspective, EURUSD seems to have completed its five-wave impulsive structure, and now we could expect corrective downward waves. Also, we can see negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks. I expect EURUSD to start declining again, breaking support lines, and possibly dropping to around 1.1700. Given that the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) is also bullish, the probability of this analysis is higher. Target: $1.1703 Stop Loss(SL): $1.1832 What’s your view on EURUSD? Can it break the resistance zone($1.1850-$1.1765), or should we expect a decline? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 Euro/U.S Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
23
EURNZD Weakness Confirmed – Slow Drop in Progress⚡ EURNZD Slipping Quietly – Momentum Turning South This move didn’t start suddenly… it actually gave small warnings before the drop. After that strong rally, price stopped making clean highs. Instead, it began to hesitate… forming weaker pushes and messy structure near the top. That’s where I lost bullish confidence 👀 Now the breakdown is clear — sellers stepped in with strength, and the reaction from the recent high failed to hold. At this point, I’m not looking for immediate reversal. It feels like price wants to continue drifting lower rather than bounce aggressively. First area I’m watching is around 1.98160 — if price respects that, we could even extend toward 1.97510 next. No need to rush entries… I prefer letting price move and then react, not predict.
Short
by ClearTradingMind
2
GBPUSD BREAKOUT BREARISH (READ CAPTION)Hi what do you think about GBPUSD GBPUSD is currently trading inside a structured range, with price reacting between support and resistance levels. The market is showing signs of bullish continuation, but only after confirming strength above key resistance. 🟢 Support Level: 1.34864 The 1.34864 level is acting as an immediate support where price has already shown a reaction. Holding above this level keeps the bullish structure valid. 🟢 Lower Support Zone: 1.33875 This is a strong demand zone and deeper support. If price retraces into this area, it may provide a stronger buying opportunity. A break below this level would weaken the bullish bias. 🔴 Resistance Level: 1.35967 The 1.35967 level is acting as a key resistance. Price needs to break and hold above this level to confirm bullish continuation. 🔴 Supply Zone: 1.36836 This is the major upside target and supply zone. If price breaks above resistance, the market is likely to move toward this level where selling pressure may appear. 📈 Market Outlook Above 1.34864 → Bullish bias remains active Break above 1.35967 → Confirms upside continuation Target → 1.36836 supply zone Breakdown below 1.33875 → Bullish setup invalid The drawn structure suggests a range → breakout → continuation scenario, favoring buyers after confirmation. Please like comment and follow thank you
Long
by fx_hunter99
USDJPY Losing Strength – Sellers Slowly Stepping InUSDJPY Quiet Breakdown – Bears Slowly Taking Control This chart is not loud… but it’s clearly shifting. For me, the key story here is simple — price is respecting a descending structure again and again. Every push up is getting weaker, and sellers are stepping in earlier than before. Now we’re sitting near a reaction zone, but I don’t see strong bullish intent. Instead, it feels like a pause before continuation. If this structure holds, I’m expecting a smooth downside move — not explosive, but steady. The channel breakdown already gave a hint… and if momentum builds from here, next clean target area comes near 156.70 zone. I’ll stay patient and watch how price reacts from this level. No rush — clean move will come.
Short
by ClearTradingMind
EURUSD Ready for the Next Leg Up — Watch This MoveAs I expected in the previous idea , EURUSD ( OANDA:EURUSD ) began to rise and reached the full target we set with a Risk-to-Reward of 2.00. Currently, EURUSD has successfully broken the resistance ($1.1684-$1.1614) and the upper lines of the symmetrical triangle. It has now completed its pullback to the resistance zone and is ready for another upward move. From an Elliott Wave perspective, EURUSD seems to have completed its wave 4, and now we should expect wave 5, which could continue EURUSD’s upward trend. I expect EURUSD to rise at least to around $1.1747 in the coming hours. First Target: $1.1747 Second Target: $1.1787 Stop Loss(SL): $1.1625(Worst) What’s your view on EURUSD—can it maintain its upward trend or not? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 Euro/U.S Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Long
by pejman_zwin
7
GBPUSD Reversal Drop – Bearish Pressure Taking ControlGBPUSD is showing a clear shift in market behavior after an extended bearish phase, where price transitioned into a structured consolidation before expanding aggressively to the upside. The recent impulsive move indicates strong participation, with buyers stepping in decisively after a period of accumulation. Price action reflects a breakout from compression, followed by a brief pause, suggesting the market is building momentum rather than exhausting it. The formation of higher highs during the expansion phase highlights growing bullish strength, while the tight consolidation near recent highs signals controlled positioning rather than panic-driven movement. This type of structure often reflects institutional activity, where liquidity is engineered before continuation or a deeper retracement. From a broader perspective, GBPUSD appears to be reacting to shifting macro sentiment, likely influenced by currency strength dynamics and expectations around economic conditions. The current price behavior suggests the market is in a re-pricing phase, where volatility may increase as participants reassess value. If momentum sustains, further upside exploration is possible; however, the extended move also leaves room for a corrective phase to rebalance inefficiencies created during the sharp rally. Overall, the chart reflects a transition from distribution into expansion, with price now at a critical decision area where the next directional move will define short-term bias.
Short
by mayachartist
5
USDJPY – Corrective Dip Before Bullish PushUSDJPY is currently experiencing a structural transition with short-term downward pressure within a broader bullish trend. The formation of a Lower Low (LL) and multiple Changes of Character (CHoCH) indicates the market is undergoing a corrective liquidity sweep, reflecting a pause before the next bullish continuation. Recent developments, including easing geopolitical tensions following the US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, have temporarily reduced demand for the US Dollar. This environment has allowed the Yen to stabilize as energy import dynamics normalize. The market is expected to complete its current corrective phase near the lower liquidity areas. Once this short-term pullback exhausts, the broader bullish trend is likely to resume, supported by the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Unless unexpected monetary policy shifts occur from the BoJ, USDJPY is positioned for further upside toward higher levels, following a buy-the-dip market behavior.
Long
by mayachartist
XAUUSD Price Action: Calm Before the Next Gold Rally?Gold’s recent price action reflects a clear transition from strong expansion into a phase of controlled consolidation, following an aggressive upward move that pushed the market into a premium valuation zone. After reaching a peak, the market reacted sharply, signaling profit-taking and a temporary imbalance, but the decline lacked sustained follow-through, indicating that selling pressure is not dominant. Instead, price has stabilized within a relatively tight range, suggesting that participants are actively accumulating positions rather than exiting the market. This consolidation phase highlights a period of indecision, where short-term fluctuations occur within a structured range while the overall market maintains its footing at elevated levels. The behavior of price within this zone suggests absorption of liquidity, where orders are being matched without causing significant displacement. Such conditions often precede expansion, as reduced volatility and compressed movement tend to build the foundation for a stronger directional move. Another important aspect is the market’s ability to hold above previous reaction zones, which reflects underlying strength and continued interest from buyers. Despite the earlier rejection from the highs, the lack of deeper downside continuation reinforces the idea that demand remains intact. This resilience indicates that the broader sentiment is still supportive of higher prices, even as the market temporarily pauses. Looking forward, the current structure implies a potential short-term dip aimed at collecting liquidity from below before initiating a continuation move. This type of movement is common in such environments, where the market seeks efficiency before expanding again. If momentum returns and participation increases, gold could attempt to revisit the recent highs and potentially extend beyond them, signaling the continuation of the broader upward trajectory rather than a reversal scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mayachartist
NZDCAD — Downtrend Intact, Longs Need PermissionThe bearish leg already delivered into the lower ABC target / WCL reaction area. That part of the move is done. Now the key detail is the active bearish trendline. As long as price keeps respecting that line, the market is still trading in a short-term downtrend. That means forcing longs here is early. Not smart. Not high quality. For me, the better long setup only begins **after** price breaks that trendline to the upside with intent. Not just a wick through it. Not just one random candle. I want to see a real break, acceptance above, and evidence that sellers are losing control. Until then, this is still a chart under bearish pressure, and any bullish idea is just anticipation. So the framework is simple: bearish delivery into the lower target has already happened price is still capped by a bearish trendline longs become interesting only after upside trendline failure if that break happens, the upper WCL becomes the cleaner draw This is the difference between reacting emotionally and trading with structure. Let the market earn the long. Not financial advice.
Long
by SmellyTaz
EUR/USD Analysis Geopolitics and Energy Drive VolatilityEUR/USD is caught in a volatile recovery phase as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-US standoff, drive oil above $100, creating stagflationary risks for the Eurozone. While the Federal Reserve stays cautious with a hawkish bias, the European Central Bank raises 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.6%, limiting hopes for near-term rate cuts. The market is currently in a liquidity-seeking cycle, retracing toward the 1.1450 zone to trigger stop-loss clusters and gather momentum. A potential easing of Middle East tensions could relieve energy pressures, setting the stage for a push toward the 1.1680 supply zone. EUR/USD remains in a transitional shake-out, where short-term weakness may be the precursor to a broader upward move.
Long
by mayachartist
18
XAUUSD – Rejection from Trendline, Potential Pullback AheadGold is currently trading inside a well-defined ascending channel, respecting higher highs and higher lows structure. Price recently tapped into a key descending trendline resistance near the 4720–4740 zone and showed a clear rejection. After this rejection, we can see short-term weakness forming, suggesting a possible corrective move before any continuation. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 4720 – 4740 (trendline + recent high rejection) Immediate Support: 4660 zone Next Support: 4620 area (strong demand + structure base) 📉 Scenario: If price fails to break and hold above the trendline, we can expect a pullback toward 4660, and potentially deeper into 4620 support. A break below support could shift short-term momentum bearish. 📈 Alternative Scenario: A strong breakout and retest above the trendline could invalidate the bearish idea and push price toward new highs. 💡 Conclusion: Market is at a critical decision point — either continuation after breakout or a healthy correction within the channel. Watch confirmation before entering.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Adrian_Trades_
4
EURJPY Breaks the Falling Wedge — Is a Bullish Impulse Starting?Today, I want to share a long position setup on the EURJPY pair( FX:EURJPY ) with you. Currently, EURJPY has successfully broken through the resistance lines. From a classic technical analysis perspective, it seems that EURJPY has also broken the upper line of a falling wedge pattern. According to Elliott Wave theory, it seems that after breaking the upper line of the falling wedge, we can expect a bullish impulse wave. I expect that in the next few hours, EURJPY will rise at least to 184.97 JPY. First Target: 184.97 JPY Second Target: 185.71 JPY Stop Loss(SL): 183.00 JPY What do you think—can EURJPY break above the resistance zone(187.00 JPY-185.00 JPY), or should we wait for a correction? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Euro/Japanese Yen Analysis (EURJPY), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Long
by pejman_zwin
7
GBP/USD Market Overview: Understanding the Cable's EnvironmentGBP/USD — known in forex circles as Cable — is one of the oldest and most traded currency pairs in the world. Right now it is navigating a challenging environment shaped by geopolitical stress, diverging economic outlooks, and a technical structure that has been tested repeatedly without a decisive resolution. Here is what traders need to understand. Where the Pair Stands The current price of GBP/USD is $1.32703 as of March 30, 2026. The pair has sold off significantly in the past few weeks, falling from a year-to-date high of 1.3870 in January to the current 1.3260 — dropping below the key resistance level at 1.3473, its highest point this month. That is a move of over 600 pips from the yearly high in a matter of weeks — the kind of range that demands respect for stop placement and position sizing regardless of your directional bias. What Is Actually Moving This Pair The Macro Picture The GBP/USD pair has sold off as traders assess the impact of the ongoing war on the economy. US inflation is expected to jump to over 4% this year while the labor market has stagnated, with the economy losing over 92,000 jobs. Confidence tumbled in March as inflation jumped and the labor market struggled. This combination — rising inflation alongside a weakening labor market — is the stagflation scenario that central banks fear most. It removes the Fed's ability to cut rates aggressively to support growth without risking accelerating inflation. For GBP/USD traders, this means the dollar component of the pair is being supported by safe-haven flows even as the US economic picture deteriorates fundamentally. The Bank of England Factor The Bank of England faces its own version of this challenge. UK inflation has remained sticky, growth has been sluggish, and the policy path is genuinely uncertain. The news background for the British currency has been weak in recent months, while geopolitics has given bears a complete advantage in the market. When neither central bank has a clear policy direction and geopolitics is dominating flows, currency pairs like GBP/USD tend to become range-bound rather than trending — which has significant implications for how you approach the trade. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Flows Just as with EUR/USD, the Middle East conflict is creating safe-haven dollar demand that is suppressing both the euro and the pound. Traders have been stuck in a range for some time between the 1.35 level on the top and the 1.3250 level on the bottom, with a lot of concerns around the world when it comes to risk appetite and the war. Understanding this dynamic is critical. The pound is not falling because of UK-specific problems — it is falling primarily because the dollar is being bid as a safe haven. When geopolitical stress eases, the pound has the potential to recover quickly. But timing that turn accurately is extremely difficult. The Technical Picture On the daily chart, price moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line — evidence of bearish pressure building. GBP/USD suggests an attempt to develop a bearish correction and test the support area near 1.3325, with the target for the pair's upside at 1.3565. A decline and breakout of support with price consolidating below 1.3245 would cancel out the upward trend, indicating a continuation of the decline toward 1.2875. On the hourly chart the pair made two rebounds from the 1.3437 level and one rebound from the support level of 1.3341 to 1.3352. The wave situation has begun to shift toward a bullish outlook — the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points. The 200-day SMA is forecast to hit $1.34 by late April 2026, while the 50-day SMA is estimated to reach $1.33 over the same timeframe. Moving averages converging at these levels makes the 1.33 to 1.34 zone technically significant on multiple timeframes simultaneously. Three Things Every GBP/USD Trader Should Understand The range is the trade right now. Traders have been stuck between 1.35 on the top and 1.3250 on the bottom for some time. In this kind of environment, breakout strategies that require sustained directional momentum underperform. Range-fading approaches — selling strength at the upper boundary and buying weakness at the lower boundary — have a higher probability of success until the range breaks decisively. 1.3250 is the line in the sand. This level has been referenced repeatedly by analysts and tested multiple times. If price breaks down below 1.3250 it could open up a move to the 1.30 level. A sustained break below this level would shift the technical picture significantly and change the risk profile of any long position. Watch it closely. The recovery potential is asymmetric if geopolitical stress eases. The pound has not fallen because of structural UK economic problems — it has fallen because of external dollar strength driven by war risk. If Middle East tensions de-escalate meaningfully, the dollar safe-haven premium could unwind quickly, and GBP/USD could recover sharply from current levels. This does not mean betting on that outcome — but it does mean understanding the risk to short positions if the geopolitical backdrop shifts. Final Thought GBP/USD is a pair currently defined more by what it is not doing than by what it is doing. It is not breaking down through 1.3250 despite sustained pressure — and it is not recovering through 1.35 despite repeated attempts. That equilibrium will not last indefinitely. The trigger for resolution will almost certainly come from outside — either a shift in the geopolitical environment removing safe-haven dollar demand, or a significant US or UK data release repricing central bank expectations. Until that trigger arrives, the range boundaries are your map. Respect the levels. Manage the position. Do not force conviction in a market that is deliberately withholding direction.
by FlipMarket
EUR/USD Market Overview: What Traders Need to Understand NowThe EUR/USD pair is one of the most liquid instruments in the global forex market — and right now it is sitting at a genuinely important crossroads. Understanding what is driving price and what levels matter most is essential for anyone trading or monitoring this pair in the current environment. Where the Pair Stands EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.14827 as of March 30, 2026. That number alone does not tell the full story. In the first half of January 2026 the euro weakened to $1.1577, then a bullish trend began pushing price above $1.1950. In early March, after a military conflict broke out in the Middle East, the pair fell to $1.16, and the bearish trend has continued amid high demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. For traders, this context matters. The pair has covered significant ground in both directions within a single quarter — and the forces driving that volatility are still fully active. What Is Actually Moving This Pair The Dollar Is the Story This pair will probably move on what goes on in Washington DC rather than anything happening on the continent of Europe. The ECB is likely to remain flat for the rest of the year as far as its monetary policy is concerned, and economic growth — or lack of growth — in the European Union is a mixed picture depending on the country. That framing is important for traders to internalize. When the primary driver is the dollar rather than the euro, you need to watch dollar-side data releases — NFP, CPI, Fed commentary — more closely than European fundamentals. EUR/USD is currently more of a dollar story than a euro story. Geopolitics as the Dominant Variable The overall fundamental background remains very challenging for the US dollar. However, geopolitics is currently the primary focus for the market, and this is what prevents the pair from resuming the global upward trend. After Trump unexpectedly shocked markets with news of successful and productive negotiations with Iran, the euro surged — but fell throughout the rest of the week as his statements went unsubstantiated. Tehran stated that Trump was negotiating with himself, and currency traders anticipating a new cycle of escalation moved capital accordingly. This is the environment traders are operating in right now. A single headline can move EUR/USD significantly in either direction — and those moves are not always sustained. Reacting to headline volatility without a clear level-based framework is one of the fastest ways to lose money in this kind of market. The Rate Divergence Factor The Eurozone policy rate at 2% is expected to remain on hold throughout most of 2026, at least until October 2026 according to ECB Watch Tool probabilities. The Fed's policy range at 3.50% to 3.75% reflects a state of indecision around the March to April meetings. This divergence adds further pressure on the US dollar. When two central banks are moving at different speeds — or one is frozen while the other remains uncertain — the currency pair between them becomes highly sensitive to any shift in expectations. A single hawkish Fed comment or a surprisingly strong US jobs number can reprice the pair rapidly. The Technical Picture Last week the euro hit resistance at 1.1648 to 1.1626. Bears managed to keep the asset below this zone. As a result price declined and reached the first bearish target at 1.1529. The next target is the March low at 1.1410. If EUR/USD settles below the March low the next target will be the 1.1218 to 1.1196 zone. The pair remains within an upward trend segment on the longer timeframe, while in the short term it has completed a downward wave structure. Since the five-wave impulse structure has been completed, over the next one to two weeks a rise toward targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745 — corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels — is possible. Further movement will depend entirely on developments in the Middle East. A confirmed close above 1.18 to 1.19 would open the door to levels last seen in 2021 and 2018. A break below 96 on the DXY could expose deeper drawdown and support EUR/USD extensions toward 1.22. Three Things Every EUR/USD Trader Should Understand Geopolitics is outweighing fundamentals right now. Standard economic analysis — comparing GDP, inflation, employment across the eurozone and US — is less useful in the current environment than monitoring geopolitical developments. When war risk drives dollar safe-haven flows, economic data takes a back seat. Adjust your analytical framework accordingly. The ECB is not the variable. With European monetary policy largely on hold for the foreseeable future, EUR/USD volatility is being generated almost entirely by the dollar side of the equation. This simplifies the picture in some ways — but it also means that US data and Fed communications carry outsized weight. The range boundaries matter more than direction bias. In a news-driven, headline-sensitive market, having clear levels on your chart is more valuable than having a strong directional opinion. Unless the euro can break the 1.20 level it is likely to remain a tight market where fading signs of exhaustion at extremes is the higher probability approach. Key Levels to Watch Current price ────── 1.1483 Immediate support ── 1.1410 — March low critical level to watch Deeper support ───── 1.1218 to 1.1196 next target if March low breaks decisively Resistance ───────── 1.1577 to 1.1626 zone that capped last week Bull trigger ─────── 1.18 to 1.19 confirmed close above opens multi-year highs Major resistance ─── 1.23 measured move target multi-year barrier Final Thought EUR/USD is not a fundamentals-driven pair right now — it is a geopolitics and dollar-sentiment driven pair. The long-term structural bias for dollar weakness remains intact based on rate differentials and positioning, but the path is being dictated by news flow that is impossible to predict with precision. Trade the levels. Manage the risk. Do not let a macro opinion override what price is actually doing on the chart.
by ForexMarketInsights
Downward Momentum Slows as Market Approaches Liquidity ZoneThe chart shows a clear period of sustained selling pressure where price gradually moved lower after failing to maintain earlier upward momentum. The market attempted to stabilize following a brief shift in behavior, but buying activity remained limited. As a result, price continued to decline step-by-step, forming a steady downward structure driven by consistent bearish candles. During this move, the market showed only short pauses where price temporarily slowed before continuing lower. These pauses often indicate that sellers remain in control while buyers are still waiting for stronger confirmation before entering the market. Currently, price is hovering near a recent low, where momentum appears to be slowing. When the market approaches such areas, it often searches for liquidity. This can lead to a short continuation lower as stop orders and pending positions get triggered. Such movements are common before the market shifts direction. The projection on the chart suggests a possible liquidity sweep below the recent low, followed by a recovery phase. If selling pressure weakens after this move, price could begin pushing higher as market participants react to the newly created liquidity. Overall, the chart reflects a market that has been dominated by selling pressure but may soon enter a phase where liquidity dynamics influence the next directional move
Long
by mayachartist
2
TheGrove | NZDUSD Sell | Idea Trading AnalysisNZDUSD is moving on support area.. We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone and you can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified Resistance zone We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity NZDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ⚜️
Short
by TheGrove
22