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Commodity Supercycle Trends1. Understanding the Concept of Supercycles Commodities traditionally move in cycles based on supply–demand fluctuations, but a supercycle is different in scale and duration. Price trends in supercycles tend to: Last for 10–20 years See sustained upward trajectories Be driven by massive structural demand Cause large-scale capital investments and supply expansions Supercycles usually involve multiple commodities rising together, including crude oil, copper, aluminum, iron ore, wheat, corn, and rare earth metals. 2. Historical Commodity Supercycles Economists identify four major commodity supercycles in the past 150 years: a. Late 19th-Century Industrialization Supercycle (1890s–1910s) This era coincided with the rapid industrial expansion in the US and Europe. Demand surged for coal, metals, and agricultural output to support railway construction, electricity expansion, and manufacturing. b. Post-WWII Reconstruction Supercycle (1945–1970) After World War II, Europe and Japan undertook large-scale rebuilding. This sharply increased the demand for energy, steel, and industrial metals. The global population was also rising rapidly, driving agricultural commodity consumption. c. China-Led Supercycle (2000–2014) Perhaps the most notable modern supercycle, driven by: China’s industrialization and urbanization Massive infrastructure investment Globalization and trade expansion Strong energy demand, especially crude oil Metals like copper, iron ore, and aluminum saw exponential price growth during this period. d. The “Green Transition” and Renewables Supercycle? (2020s–ongoing) There is debate over whether the post-2020 environment constitutes a new supercycle. Still, strong demand for battery metals, rare earth elements, lithium, nickel, copper, and silver—essential for clean energy technologies—suggests a potential long-duration upward trend. 3. Drivers Behind Commodity Supercycles Supercycles are created by mega-trends rather than short-term economic fluctuations. Key drivers include: a. Industrialization and Urbanization Emerging economies (e.g., China in the 2000s, India in the 2020s) undergo phases where construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure grow at a rapid pace. This increases demand for: Steel and iron ore Cement Base metals Energy fuels b. Technological Shifts New technologies can reconfigure commodity demand: Electric vehicles → lithium, nickel, cobalt Solar energy → silver, polysilicon Semiconductor demand → rare earths Technological revolutions often create entirely new commodity markets. c. Population Growth and Changing Consumption Patterns Growing populations increase demand for: Food grains (wheat, rice, corn) Protein (soybean, livestock feed) Energy (oil, natural gas) Urban lifestyles also increase per-capita metal and energy consumption. d. Underinvestment in Supply Supercycles often begin after years of: Low commodity prices Reduced mining investment Capacity shrinkage Supply chain disruptions When demand picks up suddenly, supply cannot catch up, causing prices to surge. e. Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus Loose monetary policy or money supply expansion can raise: Inflation Liquidity in markets Investment in commodity funds This increases speculative and real demand for commodities. 4. The 2020s: Are We in a New Commodity Supercycle? Analysts worldwide debate whether the 2020s reflect the start of a new supercycle. Several powerful forces suggest this possibility: a. Energy Transition and Green Technologies The transition to a low-carbon global economy hugely increases demand for: Copper (electric grids, EVs) Lithium (EV batteries) Nickel, cobalt (battery chemistry) Silver (solar panels) Rare earths (wind turbines, electronics) Estimates show the energy transition may require 3–10 times more metals compared to the current baseline. b. Supply Constraints This decade faces: Mine depletion Scarcity of high-grade ores Stringent environmental rules Slow permitting processes Geopolitical resource nationalism (Africa, Latin America) Supply shortages amplify price pressures. c. Geopolitical Shifts Conflicts and tensions between major powers affect commodity flows: US–China rivalry impacts rare earths Middle East tensions influence oil Russia’s sanctions affect natural gas and metals Realignment of supply chains supports longer-term price elevation. d. Climate Change Disruptions Extreme weather affects: Agricultural output Mining operations Shipping routes More frequent droughts, floods, and storms disrupt supply and raise volatility. 5. Major Commodities Likely to Dominate the Coming Supercycle 1. Copper Considered the “new oil” of the green economy, copper demand is expected to surge due to: EVs requiring 2–4 times more copper Renewable energy grids Electrification of industries 2. Lithium A core input for batteries, with demand expected to grow 10–15x by 2035. 3. Nickel and Cobalt Key metals for high-density battery chemistries. 4. Crude Oil Despite renewable energy growth, oil demand remains strong due to: Aviation Petrochemicals Industrial use Slow transition in developing countries 5. Natural Gas and LNG Seen as a “bridge fuel” in the transition away from coal. 6. Agricultural Commodities Food prices are rising due to climate volatility and rising global population. 7. Precious Metals (Gold, Silver) Investors hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical uncertainty. 6. Investment and Trading Implications a. Long-Term Opportunities A supercycle supports multi-year rallies in: Mining stocks Metal ETFs Energy companies Commodity indices b. Volatility Will Remain High While long-term trend is upward, short-term fluctuations will be sharp due to: Interest rate swings Policy changes Currency volatility c. The Role of Emerging Markets India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and parts of Africa are entering new phases of: Industrialization Infrastructure spending Urbanization This will add structural demand to the global commodity landscape. d. ESG and Sustainability Constraints Environmental regulations limit new mining capacity, pushing prices higher. 7. Conclusion Commodity supercycles represent long-term, structural shifts in global economic dynamics. They arise when powerful forces—industrialization, population growth, technology transitions, geopolitics, and supply constraints—drive sustained commodity demand. The world today is experiencing pressures that resemble previous supercycle conditions, especially with the rise of green energy, supply chain restructuring, and climate-driven disruptions. Whether or not this evolves into a full-fledged supercycle, commodities like copper, lithium, nickel, crude oil, natural gas, and agricultural products are likely to experience elevated demand and significant price appreciation in the years ahead. Understanding these trends helps investors and policymakers strategize effectively in a resource-constrained and rapidly evolving global economy.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/CAD is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.62239 1st Support: 1.61817 1st Resistance: 1.62991 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Long
by IC Markets
SPX 500: Bullish Rebound to 6760?FX:SPX500 is priming for a bullish rebound on the 4-hour chart , where price has pulled back to a critical support zone following a sharp decline, forming a potential bounce setup amid a broader uptrend—highlighted by the rebound pattern near key levels that could ignite buying if buyers defend against further downside. This confluence at the support offers a high-reward long opportunity in the index's volatile range. Entry zone between 6530-6550 for a buy position. Target at 6760 🎯near the resistance zone, delivering a risk-reward ratio greater than 1:4 .Set a stop loss on a close below 6500 📊 to manage risk effectively. Watch for confirmation via a strong bullish candle with rising volume above the entry, capitalizing on the index's resilience despite recent pressures🌟. Fundamentally , the S&P 500 closed at around 6646.7 on November 19, 2025, down over 2% in November amid economic concerns and high valuations, particularly in AI stocks, with the index dipping below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April—yet historical patterns suggest a median 15% upside to 7710 over the next year if it follows median rebounds. Earnings growth remains robust at 16.9% YoY, beating estimates, supporting potential recovery despite tariff worries. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry Zone (Buy): 6530 – 6550 🎯 Target: • TP: 6760 (major resistance) ❌ Stop Loss: Close below 6500 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: Greater than 1:4 What's your outlook on this rebound? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
FX:SPX500Long
by Master_Hunter
11
Bearish reversal off key resistance?Loonie (USD/CAD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.4068 1st Support: 1.4092 1st Resistance: 1.4092 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Short
by IC Markets
CADJPY: Ending Diagonal + RD(_) = Downtrend StartingToday, I’d like to share a Short positioning opportunity on the CADJPY pair . In the current scenario, CADJPY is moving within a Resistance zone(112.100 JPY-109.500 JPY) and is close to a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) as well as the upper line of the ascending channel. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that CADJPY is completing the microwave 5 of the microwave C of the main wave Y , and the microwave 5 appears to be forming an Ending Diagonal . Additionally, we can observe a negative Regular Divergence (RD-) between the peaks. Fundamental analysis : Considering the above analysis, and also taking into account the fundamental conditions, Canada’s core inflation came in softer than expected, reinforcing the BoC’s easing path, while JPY benefits from the current risk-off tone. Fundamentally, CADJPY remains biased to the downside. Finally, based on all the above, I expect that CADJPY will begin its downward trend, with a First target at 109.103 JPY Take Profit(2): 108.543 JPY Stop Loss(SL): 118.820 JPY(Worst) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Canadian Dollar/ Japanese Yen Analysis (CADJPY), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
15
Bullish bounce off?EUR/AUD has bounced off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.77607 1st Support: 1.76733 1st Resistance: 1.79621 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Long
by IC Markets
EUR/USD Preparing for Upside Move Toward Key Imbalance ZoneOn the EUR/USD 15-minute chart, price is showing signs of strength after holding above the 1.1590 support zone. If bullish momentum continues, the next target sits around 1.1627, where a major imbalance and previous structure lie. A clean break above that level could push price toward the upper supply zone near 1.1655. However, failure to break may lead to another rejection and move lower. Staying patient and watching how price reacts at these key levels is essential.
Long
by mazaya_fx
Artificial Intelligence & Tech Stocks Rally1. The Rise of AI as an Economic Catalyst AI has shifted from being a futuristic concept to a real-world productivity enhancer. It now influences every major industry: financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, cybersecurity, logistics, and more. Technologies such as deep learning, natural language processing, and autonomous systems have prompted companies worldwide to accelerate their digital transformation. The introduction of large language models (LLMs), AI chips, robotics, and automation has created a new economic cycle driven by data, computing power, and algorithmic intelligence. As a result, companies directly involved in AI development—along with those supplying the hardware and cloud platforms—have become market favorites. Investors increasingly view AI as the next “industrial revolution” capable of reshaping global productivity, profitability, and innovation. This belief has driven massive capital inflows into tech stocks, especially those perceived as leaders in AI research and commercialization. 2. Key Drivers Behind the AI-Fueled Tech Rally A. Explosive Growth of Generative AI The launch of advanced generative AI systems dramatically accelerated interest in AI stocks. Major companies quickly integrated generative AI into search engines, productivity tools, customer support, and software development workflows. This rapid adoption strengthened the revenue outlook for tech giants and reinforced investor confidence. B. Demand for High-Performance Computing & AI Chips Semiconductor companies, particularly those producing AI GPUs and specialized accelerators, have emerged as the backbone of the AI revolution. The massive need for computational power has pushed chip manufacturers to record valuations. Cloud service providers and hyperscale data centers are investing billions to upgrade their infrastructure to handle AI workloads. C. Cloud Expansion & Software AI Integration Tech firms integrating AI into their existing cloud and software offerings have seen rising subscription revenue and improved customer retention. The “AI upgrade cycle”—where businesses adopt AI features as part of cloud services—has enhanced long-term earnings visibility for cloud companies. D. Automation & Productivity Gains AI-driven automation is helping businesses improve productivity while reducing costs. Companies that demonstrate measurable efficiency gains from AI adoption are rewarded by investors, who view this as margin-expansion potential. As firms show better earnings due to AI-enabled efficiencies, market optimism increases. E. Global Government Support Governments worldwide are prioritizing AI policy, infrastructure, and innovation funding. This includes national AI strategies, incentives for semiconductor manufacturing, and investment in digital public infrastructure. These initiatives create favorable environments for AI-driven business growth, further strengthening investor sentiment. 3. Major Sectors Benefiting from the AI Rally 1. Semiconductor & Chip Manufacturing AI requires enormous computing power, leading to unprecedented demand for GPUs, neural processing units (NPUs), and specialized chips. Semiconductor companies have seen massive revenue growth due to AI training and inference workloads. 2. Cloud Computing Platforms AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and others are increasingly viewed as the “AI backbone” because they host AI models and provide infrastructure. Cloud giants benefit from scalable subscription revenue and enterprise AI spending. 3. Software as a Service (SaaS) SaaS companies integrating AI into CRM, automation, analytics, and productivity tools are experiencing an upgrade cycle. New AI features allow them to charge premium subscription fees, boosting profitability. 4. Cybersecurity AI-powered cybersecurity systems detect threats faster and manage huge volumes of data. With rising cybercrime, demand for AI-based security tools continues to expand. 5. Robotics & Automation AI is powering industrial robotics, warehouse automation, and autonomous machinery. The increased demand for efficiency in logistics and manufacturing fuels revenue growth for automation firms. 6. Consumer Technology AI is enhancing smartphones, smart home systems, wearables, and personal digital assistants. Tech companies adding AI capabilities have seen surging demand for next-generation devices. 4. Why Investors Are Bullish on AI's Long-Term Outlook A. Multi-Trillion Dollar Market Potential AI’s total addressable market (TAM) is expected to surpass trillions of dollars over the next decade. Analysts predict long-term growth across nearly every industry, making AI one of the largest commercial opportunities in history. B. Continuous Innovation & Rapid Deployment AI models and systems improve continuously. Every new innovation—smarter models, faster chips, more efficient algorithms—creates new commercial opportunities. This rapid pace of change fuels sustained investor enthusiasm. C. Enterprise Adoption at Massive Scale Companies across sectors are integrating AI into operations, decision-making, and customer experience. Enterprise adoption is one of the biggest drivers of long-term revenue growth for AI suppliers and service providers. D. Network Effects & Data Advantages Companies with massive data pools, extensive user bases, and strong computational capacity benefit from network effects. This creates “winner-take-most” dynamics favoring tech giants—which attract substantial investor capital. 5. Risks & Challenges to the AI Tech Rally While the AI-driven rally is strong, it is not without risks: 1. Overvaluation Concerns Some tech stocks have reached extremely high valuations. If earnings growth fails to match expectations, corrections may occur. 2. Supply Chain Constraints AI hardware requires complex semiconductor supply chains. Shortages in advanced chips could impact production and revenue. 3. Regulatory & Ethical Uncertainty Governments are increasing oversight over AI data use, privacy, and safety. Regulatory risks can affect growth prospects. 4. High Capital Expenditure AI infrastructure—data centers, chips, cloud systems—is extremely expensive. Some companies may face profitability pressures due to high capex. 5. Competitive Intensity AI markets are highly competitive. New entrants, rapid innovations, or pricing pressures could disrupt market leaders. 6. Future Outlook of AI & Tech Stocks The long-term outlook for AI and tech remains highly positive. Over the next decade, AI is expected to shape global economic growth, productivity, and technological innovation. Key trends include: Expansion of generative AI across enterprise workflows Surge in demand for AI chips, data centers, and cloud computing Growing adoption in healthcare, finance, logistics, education, and retail AI-powered robotics reshaping manufacturing Increased global investment in digital and computational infrastructure Despite market volatility or occasional corrections, AI’s economic impact is expected to grow significantly, making AI and tech stocks central to modern global portfolios.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
XAU/USD – Rebalancing Structure, Support Zone Holding Steady⏰ Timeframe: 30m 📅 Update: 17/11/2025 🔍 Market Context After the extended decline late last week, gold is gradually stabilizing around the 4,050–4,080 USD zone, showing a positive reaction at the structural support zone. The recent Break of Structure (BOS) sequence indicates that the selling momentum is gradually weakening, while the newly formed Order Block is acting as a temporary balance for the market. The current structure slightly leans towards a technical recovery, as buying flows are returning around the main support zone. 📊 Technical Structure Support Zone (4,049–4,080 USD): a critical support zone, confluencing with the previous liquidity bottom. Order Block (4,096–4,115 USD): a short-term supply-demand area, potentially a retest point before the price expands higher. Resistance Zone (4,145 USD): the first intermediate level to overcome to confirm upward momentum. Target Zone (4,210 USD): the upper liquidity zone, corresponding to the potential expansion mark of the recovery wave. 🎯 Market Outlook Priority scenario for the day: 1️⃣ Gold may retest the Order Block zone 4,096–4,115 USD before forming the first push up to 4,145 USD. 2️⃣ If buying pressure is maintained and this resistance zone is broken, the expansion momentum may head towards 4,210 USD, corresponding to a higher liquidity zone. 3️⃣ Losing the 4,049 USD mark will invalidate the recovery structure and bring the market back to a lower balance zone. 🧠 Analyst’s View The market is currently in a reaccumulation phase after a strong correction. Buyers still maintain a technical advantage as long as the price remains above the 4,049 USD support zone. Observing price behavior around the Order Block and the 4,145 USD zone will be key signals to confirm the strength of this recovery wave. 🛡️ Risk Note The current phase is a “pullback phase” within the larger structure. Traders should wait for clear price behavior confirmation at technical zones rather than predicting movements in advance.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
USDJPY | Breakout Retest → Targeting Major Supply Zone (157.80)USDJPY has confirmed a strong bullish continuation structure on the daily timeframe after breaking above the key resistance zone around 153.50 – 154.30. This level has now flipped into a fresh demand zone, acting as a valid retest area for continuation. 🔍 Why This Move Matters: Daily Break of Structure (BOS): Bullish market structure remains intact Demand Retest: Price tapped into the previous breakout zone (153.50–154.30) Liquidity Shift: Sell-side liquidity taken → Buy-side liquidity now targeted Higher Timeframe Trend: Strongly bullish since October; aggressive momentum 🎯 Upside Targets: 154.30 → First continuation objective (already tapped) 157.80 → Major supply zone + HTF liquidity cluster 158.00 → Top of weekly supply Price is likely to accumulate above 154.30 and build higher lows before pushing toward the 157.80 supply block. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If price holds above 153.50, continuation toward 157.80 remains highly probable. Market structure indicates trend continuation, not reversal. 📚 Concepts Used: Market Structure | BOS | Liquidity | HTF Zones | Demand/Supply Flip | Trend Continuation | FX Macro Trend
Long
by TheWallstreetCapital
AUDNZD Rally Losing Steam – Watch This Reversal Zone!As we’ve seen, AUDNZD ( OANDA:AUDNZD ) recently began an upward move after forming a Falling Wedge Pattern , and it’s been in an Ascending Channel for about the past 16 days. Currently, AUDNZD is moving into a Heavy Resistance zone(1.1662 NZD-1.1340 NZD) and a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems like AUDNZD is completing the microwave 5 of the main wave 3 . Once it breaks below the lower line of the ascending channel, we can somewhat confirm the end of the main wave 3. Additionally, we can see a Negative Regular Divergence(RD-) forming between two consecutive peaks. I expect that in the coming hours, AUDNZD might decline at least to the Support zone(1.1480 NZD-1.1444 NZD) . If it breaks that Support zone, we could see it dropping toward around 1.1353 NZD(Second Target) . Stop Loss(SL): 1.16403 NZD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Analyze (AUDNZD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
5
XAUUSD H1 – Watching 4178 & 4158 for the next impulsive reversalAfter reacting cleanly from the 4232–4236 Supply OB, Gold confirmed a shift in intent with a sharp CHoCH → BMS sequence, showing that buyers were trapped in premium and Smart Money has rotated the market back toward discount zones. The current structure suggests that price is seeking mitigation + liquidity below before any meaningful continuation. Two key Buy Zones stand out on the chart: 💎 Key Technical Zones OB BUY ZONE 4178–4174 (SL 4170) → First discount reaction zone and potential intraday long setup if M5 CHoCH confirms. OB BUY ZONE 4158–4154 (SL 4148) → Deeper mitigation area aligned with the previous displacement leg and liquidity resting below. OB SELL ZONE 4232–4236 (SL 4242) → Proven supply zone where yesterday’s reversal began. As long as price holds above the new Lower Low (4156), the broader structure remains corrective rather than bearish — setting the stage for a possible continuation toward 4205 → 4230 after liquidity is collected. 🪶 Execution View I’m waiting for price to dip into one of the Buy Zones, sweep liquidity, and show confirmation before looking for longs. Chasing price in premium offers no edge — value lies in patience and reaction. 🌙 💭 Karina’s Note Smart Money always rotates price from premium to discount before continuing. Read the intent, not the impulse. 💛 This is my personal view based on SMC principles – not financial advice. ✨ Like & Follow for daily Plan updates ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Karina_ilina