USDJPYHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDJPY?
On the 8-hour chart, USD/JPY is exhibiting a well-defined bearish structure in the medium term. After several failed attempts to break and hold above the 160.000 psychological resistance level, price action is now signaling a shift toward a bearish momentum.
Key Technical Insights:
Supply Zone: The red shaded area between 159.500 and 160.200 has proven to be a formidable barrier. Multiple rejections in this zone indicate heavy institutional selling pressure.
Descending Channel & Confluence: The pair is currently trading within a descending channel. Price has recently tapped the upper boundary of this channel, coinciding perfectly with the Fibonacci retracement . This technical confluence strengthens the bearish thesis.
Given the current structure, price is expected to resume its bearish movement after rejecting the channel resistance, potentially heading toward the lower boundary.
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Forexsignal
EURUSD Hit Resistance — But the Chart Is Flashing a Warning!As I expected in the previous idea , EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) started its upward move from the support zone($1.1684-$1.1627) and reached the full target.
Currently, EURUSD is moving within a resistance zone($1.1850-$1.1765). It had a strong drop from the resistance zone, and it seems to be in a corrective phase now.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, EURUSD seems to have completed its five-wave impulsive structure, and now we could expect corrective downward waves.
Also, we can see negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks.
I expect EURUSD to start declining again, breaking support lines, and possibly dropping to around 1.1700. Given that the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) is also bullish, the probability of this analysis is higher.
Target: $1.1703
Stop Loss(SL): $1.1832
What’s your view on EURUSD? Can it break the resistance zone($1.1850-$1.1765), or should we expect a decline?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Euro/U.S Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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DXY H4 (Bearish Bias, Short-Term Bounce Possible)Looking at the DXY 4H chart, the overall structure doesn’t look strong anymore. Price has already broken out of that rising channel and since then it’s been moving with weaker pushes and lower highs. That usually tells us buyers are losing control.
Right now price is sitting around the 98.20–98.30 area, which feels more like a pause than a strong support.
What the chart is telling me is that the bias is slightly bearish for today and tomorrow.
As long as price stays below 99.40, it remains under pressure. That area above is now acting like resistance, and the market isn’t showing strong bullish momentum, just small consolidations.
London session often continues the current move, so if it’s bearish, it can keep dropping.
New York session either continues the move or gives a fake push before reversing.
In simple word the chart is basically telling us the dollar is weak for now, and unless it gains strength back above 99.40, downside moves look more likely.
DXY Daily (Bearish Structure, Pullback Phase)On the daily timeframe, DXY is still in a broader bearish structure, forming lower highs and lower lows since the major rejection near 103.45. Price recently bounced from the 96.00–95.20 demand zone and is now in a corrective pullback phase around 98.29.
The key level to watch is 100.40 resistance. As long as DXY remains below this area, the overall daily bias stays bearish, and the current move looks like a temporary retracement rather than a full trend reversal.
If price fails near 99.50–100.40, we can expect another move down toward 97.00 and potentially 95.20 again. However, a strong daily close above 100.40 would shift momentum and indicate a deeper bullish correction.
US30 Bullish Retest – Buyers Defending Trend SupportUS30 continues to respect the overall upward trend, with price pulling back into a confluence zone of horizontal support and a rising trendline.
The recent retracement appears controlled, suggesting this could be a healthy pullback before continuation. As long as price holds above the current support area, the bullish structure remains intact.
Momentum may build if price reclaims and holds above the mid-range level, opening the door for a move toward recent highs.
📊 Key Areas to Watch:
• Support: 48,400 zone (trendline + structure)
• Mid-Level: 48,700
• Upside Targets: 48,900 → 49,200
📈 Market Structure:
Higher lows continue to form, indicating buyers are still in control unless support breaks.
⚠️ Watching for strong bullish confirmation at support before continuation.
EURAUD Sell/ShortExecutive Summary
The EUR/AUD pair is currently exhibiting signs of a structural trend reversal on the 4-hour timeframe. After a period of consolidation and a failed attempt to maintain levels above the 1.6700 handle, the pair has encountered significant selling pressure. Our technical setup suggests a bearish continuation as the price breaks below key psychological and moving average supports.
Technical Analysis: The Bearish Case
Resistance Rejection & Structure: The pair recently tested the 1.6750 – 1.6800 zone, coinciding with the 365-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The subsequent sharp rejection and the formation of lower highs indicate that the "path of least resistance" has shifted to the downside.
Moving Average Convergence: Price action has slipped below the TRAMA 99-period moving average (1.6614). This transition from trading above to trading below the mean serves as a primary signal for momentum traders that the short-term bullish trend has exhausted.
Volume Profile: We note a significant surge in selling volume as the price approached the current support-turned-resistance at 1.6595. This volume spike suggests institutional distribution rather than simple retail profit-taking.
Strategic Trade Parameters
While the technicals lean bearish, investors should remain cognizant of the broader macro environment. Monetary Policy Divergence of the market participants are closely watching the ECB’s upcoming meeting minutes for any hawkish pivots regarding inflation. Conversely, strong Australian labor market data (expected later this week) could provide the RBA with the necessary leverage to maintain its restrictive stance, further strengthening the AUD against the Euro.
Geopolitical Sentiment: The EUR remains sensitive to energy price fluctuations stemming from Middle Eastern tensions. A sustained decline in oil prices typically favors the Euro, whereas a spike could bolster the "commodity-linked" Australian Dollar, accelerating the downward move toward our TP2.
Investor Takeaway
We maintain a negative outlook on EUR/AUD for the near term. The current breakdown below 1.6595 offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio for short-side positioning. However, a daily close back above the 365-EMA would invalidate this bearish thesis and necessitate a neutral stance.
If you have any questions about this trade please feel free to message me in private and I will happily analyze and further elaborate the situation to you.
EURUSD Ready for the Next Leg Up — Watch This MoveAs I expected in the previous idea , EURUSD ( OANDA:EURUSD ) began to rise and reached the full target we set with a Risk-to-Reward of 2.00.
Currently, EURUSD has successfully broken the resistance ($1.1684-$1.1614) and the upper lines of the symmetrical triangle. It has now completed its pullback to the resistance zone and is ready for another upward move.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, EURUSD seems to have completed its wave 4, and now we should expect wave 5, which could continue EURUSD’s upward trend.
I expect EURUSD to rise at least to around $1.1747 in the coming hours.
First Target: $1.1747
Second Target: $1.1787
Stop Loss(SL): $1.1625(Worst)
What’s your view on EURUSD—can it maintain its upward trend or not?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Euro/U.S Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
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EURUSD H1 (Bullish Breakout Continuation)EURUSD on the 1-hour chart is showing a strong bullish continuation trend. Price has cleanly broken above 1.1721 and is now holding around 1.1763, which confirms buyers are still in control. The next major resistance area is around 1.1810, and above that the bigger H4 resistance sits near 1.1866.
The structure is making higher highs and higher lows, which keeps the bullish bias intact. Since DXY is weak, this further supports upside continuation in EURUSD.
Trade Setup (safer pullback entry):
Buy Zone: 1.1748 – 1.1722
(previous breakout level / retest zone)
Stop Loss: 1.1698
(around 25–30 pips risk)
Take Profit 1: 1.1810
Take Profit 2: 1.1866
Avoid buying directly at the current top unless you get a proper pullback candle on H1. The better trade is always on retest.
Falling towards 50% Fib support?Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and could bounce towards the 1st resistance, which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.3737
1st Support: 1.3672
1st Resistance: 1.3867
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Gold Sweeps 30M Order Block Before Massive Drop to FVG?chart suggests a bearish rejection setup after price taps into a key supply zone:
🔴 Bearish Signals:
30M Order Block Rejection
Price has entered the marked red 30-minute OB near 4740–4748.
Multiple candles show hesitation and weak bullish continuation.
Liquidity Sweep Behavior
Price appears to be sweeping liquidity above recent equal highs before reversal.
This is often smart-money manipulation before downside expansion.
Ichimoku Resistance
Price is trading under higher cloud resistance.
Chikou / cloud structure suggests upside is capped unless breakout confirmed.
Projected Move Toward FVG
Gray Fair Value Gap zone around 4675–4685 is the likely magnet.
The curved arrow indicates expected bearish retracement into imbalance.
🟢 Bullish Invalidation:
If price breaks and closes strongly above 4750–4760, bearish scenario weakens.
Then next upside target could be higher liquidity above recent highs.
🎯 Possible Trade Idea:
Sell Zone: 4740–4748 rejection confirmation
Target 1: 4715
Target 2: 4680 FVG fill
Stop Loss: Above 4762
Summary:
Gold is sitting at a premium supply zone. Unless bulls reclaim above the OB decisively, probability favors a drop into the FVG imbalance below.
Bias: Short-term Bearish 📉
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we gave the potential range we expected price to play in together with the hot spots and path. We managed to open well, price attacking our hot spot and giving a bounce presenting buyers with an opportunity to capture a phenomenal trade upside into the immediate hot spot above. We then retested, failed the breach, and again we got that long trade into the defence box above which is where price near enough played for the remainder of the week.
We had another fruitful week in Camelot, not only on gold but the indicators performed, LiTE gave us another 100% hit rate and Excalibur worked it’s magic across numerous pairs.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We have a key level of resistance above at the 4755-65 region which needs to hold us down in order to attempt the break of defence and attack the 4720 region for the opening. Below that level we have defence sitting at 4660-40, which is now the key level for bulls to defend in our opinion. If we achieve this level, it’s worth watching for a RIP and potential opportunity to get the long trade upside with the first hurdle above on the flip sitting at 4750 again.
As above, 4640 for us is sticking out at the moment so we’ll use that as the bias level at the moment and say bullish above until we get a clearer indication from market open.
On the flip, we have that defence box above at the 4765 level, which we would like to see broken in order to then give more confidence to long from here initially into the 4804-10 level which will need to be broken convincingly with a strong 4H candle and then flip for us to then target the 4890s and above.
Price is still not as clear as we would like, buying and selling opportunities are available, and while they are we’ll stand with no long term bias to direction and take both. The market is giving, the stops are extended, the moves are huge, entries and risk management are fundamental to staying in the game.
We’ll continue to do what we do with potential for this up and down price range to continue for another week.
RED BOX TARGETS:
BREAK ABOVE 4765 for 4774, 4785, 4790, 4804, 4810 and 4820 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 4740 for 4730, 4726, 4720, 4710 and 4695 in extension of the move
KOG’s BIAS FOR THE WEEK:
Bullish above 4640
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Weekly Analysis 4/12/26: EURUSDPrice action has been challenging due to the war, but based on last week, peace talks were arranged and price had a lot of momentum going bullish. But on Saturday, peace talks were not resolved so we expect more volatility.
We're expecting price to go down first as a first reaction and to take out the weak low, then we will look for an entry model to continue higher.
AUDUSD Bearish Setup | Harmonic Pattern + Bearish DivergenceWhat to Watch:Key support level acting as decision zone Wait for a confirmed breakdown below support Look for a retest of the broken level for safer entry......
Trade Plan: Entry: After breakout + retest confirmation Stop Loss: Above recent structure high
Take Profit: Next key support zones (RR 1:2 or better)..
Patience is key — avoid early entries and let the market confirm the move.
This setup aligns with smart money concepts and price action, making it a high-probability trade if confirmation is respected.
Stay with us.
Market View: USDJPYMarket View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇In the comments👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The pair is maintaining its bullish bias. Much will depend on US-Iran negotiations in the short term, but buyers remain firmly in the mix. The primary entry point remains unchanged and is expected to be a breakout of 160.
Thanks for your support
BTCUSDT: Rejected at 72.8K - 70.6K Support in FocusAs long as BTCUSDT remains below the 72,800 resistance, the bearish bias stays valid. A rejection from this area could push price toward the 70,500 support (TP1) as the next downside target......
However, if price manages to break and hold above 72,800, the bearish scenario would weaken and the market could shift into continuation of the uptrend......
Bullish momentum to continue?NZD/CAD is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.80374
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.79977
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonaci retracement.
Take profit: 0.80985
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD Roadmap —Long Opportunity at Support(Risk-to-Reward:2.00)Today I want to share an analysis on EURUSD ( OANDA:EURUSD ) that includes a trade with Risk-to-Reward: 2.00 .
EURUSD is currently moving in a heavy support zone($1.158-$1.139).
It also seems that EURUSD has been moving for the past 20 days between support and resistance lines, which appear to form a classic symmetrical triangle from a technical analysis perspective.
From the Elliott Wave theory point of view, EURUSD seems to have completed a 5-wave downward move, with the 5th wave truncated, suggesting we can expect at least a corrective upward movement.
I expect EURUSD to start rising from Fibonacci levels, with a minimum target of $1.15910.
----------------
EURUSD
Position: Long
Entry Point: $1.15183 (Limit Order)
Take Profit: $1.15910
Stop Loss: $1.14820
Risk-To-Reward: 2.00
Please don't forget to follow capital management.
Please pay attention to the style of opening the position.
----------------
What do you think about EURUSD? Will it break through the heavy support zone($1.158-$1.139), or not?
Overall, escalating military conflicts in the Middle East and no talks of a ceasefire or possible agreement could help strengthen the DXY index( TVC:DXY ).
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Euro/U.S Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
XAUUSD Pullback Setup – FVG Rejection After UptrendGold has been moving in a strong uptrend, respecting the trendline perfectly with multiple bullish reactions.
Now price is entering a key FVG zone, where a rejection could trigger a short-term pullback.
📊 Trade Setup: Entry: FVG zone (~4685 – 4700)
TP1: 4550
TP2: 4350
SL: Above 4720
🧠 Market Idea:
Strong bullish trend already played
Price hitting imbalance (FVG) area
Possible short-term correction
Targets aligned with previous support zones
If FVG holds, a clean drop can follow.
NZD/USD > Bullish Continuation Scenario📊 NZD/USD — “THE KIWI”
Bullish Structure | Smart Money Pullback | Thief Layer Strategy 💼📈
Market: NZD/USD (Forex)
Trading Style: Swing / Day Trade
Bias: 🟢 Bullish continuation
🔍 Trade Plan Overview
NZD/USD is showing bullish structure strength with price holding above key demand zones. The market is respecting higher-lows, and pullbacks are being absorbed by buyers — a classic trend continuation environment.
This plan focuses on patience, scaling, and risk control, not prediction.
🎯 Entry Strategy — Thief Layering Method 🧠💰
Entry Style: Any price level using layered buy limits
Instead of chasing price, the Thief Strategy uses multiple limit orders to build a position during pullbacks.
📌 Buy Limit Layers (example):
0.57500
0.57800
0.58200
👉 You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk appetite and timeframe.
This method improves average entry price and reduces emotional execution.
🏁 Target Zone — Take Profits Like a Pro 🚨💵
🎯 Primary Target: 0.60000
Why this level matters:
Strong psychological resistance
Prior supply zone / overbought reaction area
Potential bull trap zone — police force (smart money) may defend here
📢 Action: Scale out profits. Don’t get greedy.
Money made = money secured.
🛑 Stop Loss — Capital Protection First 🧯
🔴 Thief SL: 0.57000
This stop is placed below key structure support.
⚠️ You are not required to use this exact SL — manage risk according to your system.
🧠 Risk Reminder (Read This)
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs):
This is not financial advice.
You control your TP, SL, and lot size.
Trade smart, protect capital, and take profits responsibly.
🔄 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Check) 📊
Keep an eye on these USD & risk-sensitive pairs for confirmation:
AUD/USD 💵
→ Strong positive correlation with NZD/USD (commodity currencies)
DXY ( AMEX:USD Index) 💲
→ NZD/USD typically rises when DXY weakens
NZD/JPY 💴
→ Risk-on sentiment gauge (carry trade flow)
AUD/NZD 🇦🇺🇳🇿
→ Helps identify relative strength between AUD & NZD
📌 If USD weakens broadly, NZD/USD bullish probability increases.
🌍 Fundamental & Economic Factors (Live Market Focus) 📰
Key macro drivers influencing this setup:
🇳🇿 RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
→ Hawkish tone supports NZD
→ Dovish signals = short-term pullbacks
🇺🇸 US Dollar Sentiment
→ Fed rate expectations & inflation data drive USD strength/weakness
📉 US Inflation (CPI / PCE)
→ Lower inflation = USD weakness = NZD/USD bullish
📊 Risk-On / Risk-Off Flows
→ Equity strength supports NZD
→ Risk aversion strengthens USD & JPY
⏰ Session Focus: London → New York volatility overlap
(Watch high-impact red-folder news before entering)
✅ Final Thoughts
This is a structure-based bullish opportunity using layered execution, not emotional entries.
Let price come to you.
Let the market pay you.
💬 If this idea adds value, LIKE 👍 | COMMENT 💬 | FOLLOW 🚀
Trade safe. Trade smart.
— Thief Trader 🕶️📈
EURJPY H4 | Bearish Reversal Off Key ResistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise towards our sell entry level at 184.60, which is an overlap resistance.
Our stop loss is set at 185.78, which is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Our take profit is set at 183.43, which is a pullback support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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CADCHF – Sell the rebound while price stays below resistanceAnalysis:
👉CADCHF remains under pressure on the daily timeframe, still trading below the long-term descending trendline and showing no clear sign of a bullish structural reversal yet.
👉The rebound from the 0.5600–0.5610 area showed buying interest at the base , with notable volume appearing at lower prices. That suggests institutional participation in that region, but it did not confirm a real trend reversal.
👉After that rebound, price lost quality in the middle of the structure and started to show reduced continuation strength. Because of that, the current read is not for aggressive buying, but rather for possible partial distribution after the defense of the base.
👉On the macro side, falling oil removes support from the CAD, while the temporary improvement in risk sentiment reduces part of the defensive demand for the CHF. Even with that partial balance, the chart still favors selling rallies more than buying at the current price.
📌My operational view is straightforward:
the edge is on the short side, but it still needs a trigger.
🟢 Preferred short zone:
0.5738–0.5758
🔴 Invalidation:
above 0.5778
🟢 Projected targets:
0.5698
0.5658
0.5605–0.5610
💡If there is no rebound, then a clean break below 0.5715 with bearish acceptance could also open room for continuation lower, although with weaker risk-to-reward than the main setup.
🟢A long setup would only start to gain quality if price breaks and sustains above 0.5760–0.5770 with real strength.
💡 Summary:
the base was defended, but the rebound has not been convincing.
As long as price remains below resistance and below the major descending trendline, CADCHF still looks more like a tactical short candidate than a structural long.
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FX Liquidity Lab
Understand liquidity. Anticipate the move.
DXY Trade Signal - Bullish ImpulseTVC:DXY #Trade Signal - #Bullish Impulse
Summary: TVC:DXY #TradeSignal
- #DXY Bullish Impulse started.
- #DollarIndex Buy Positions in focus.
Tech. Analysis: TVC:DXY #Signal
Chart Structure:
- #ElliottWave: A-B-C #Correction
- #EndingDiagonal Completion
- #Bullish #Divergence
- #DollarIndex #Bullish #Fractal
TVC:DXY Prediction:
- #BullishImpulse
- Intermediate (C) Wave
TVC:DXY Trade Levels
- Ticker: TVC:DXY
- Direction: #LONG
- Market Entry @ 100
- Strategic Entry @ 99.8
- SL @ 97.5
- TP1 @ 102.2
- TP2 @ 104
- TP3 @ 105
#DXY #DailyChart
* #TradeSignals are subject to risk, DYOR.






















