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SENSEX Index Another Topping Formation DevelopingSENSEX INDEX India This is another index that looks like it's topping out for the summer. The great bull campaign from the 2009 low at 8075 to a high at 36370 over 9 years is in its final stages. Echoes of the Dax here. A break below 34291 will trigger a short opportunity here back to 32516 where it should attempt to bounce - but it won't get far when it does. And once it breaks below here it should start to fall away in stages to 31096 then 29169 where it should bounce harder. If at any point over the summer 29169 gives way to bears it should fall harder still 25772 and when that breaks to 22577. A series of potential short opportunities here all summer long. Be lucky.
BSE:SENSEXShort
by sumastardon
DAX Index:GER30 Topping Formation - Care Needed HereDax Index DAX Topping Formation Short Set-Ups If you trade Bitcoin you will be familiar with this pattern for sure. Having broken below the longer term lower parallel the Dax has fallen away to structure lows to left of price, dropped a little lower to take out the last swing long stops - and then promptly swung back higher again. In doing so it's tracking up a smaller pair of parallels back towards the larger parallel above it. It is going to have an insumountable problem breaking above either of the parallels now above it. In addition to showing topping activity now we have a seasonal pull working in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage for a reason. Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October. That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter. This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect. Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise. Long story short, this index is vulnerable again now. It's testing the junction between fixed and dynamic support lines at 12789 now. Failure to hold here should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 12599 to begin with where it should try to bounce away again - any failure to do so will trigger another wave of selling back to 12323. Both these breaks should be worth shorting when they come. Any break below any fixed line of support by more than 25 points should lead to a near term test of the next support line. The biggest of these moves lower is the last, from 12300 down to 11856-11744. On the upside this index has to hold up at 12789 now for the bulls to stay in control from here. It can do this one last time and rally from here right back to the highs and just take the stops above out, before falling away again. This is effectively inverse price action to the action we saw at the last swing lows of March. But that is a best case scenario. At best this is a speculative buy at 12827 because the stop is so close by, just under 12800 for 30 or so loss if wrong here. But be ready to short on first break below 12800 with stops 60 or more above. The up-trend looks to be waning and running out of upside momentum now. Be ready for the break lower, maybe set an alert, and act on it. It could be a good trade - if we don't get stopped out first...
FX:GER30Short
by sumastardon
WTI Near Term Topping FormationWTI: USOIL West Texas Intermediate Unlike on Brent chart there is only one clear and true reverse head and shoulders evident on the WTI chart (left shoulder not 'true' on the smaller one, yet so clearly evident on the Brent chart, please see companion forecast for UKOIL for comparison). So this chart is still forecasting longer term upward pressure to the eventual minimum upside target implied by the RHS at 84.82. However, in the nearer term WTI continues to flip within the 150 pip forecast range but due to Brent reaching a significant target point the lower end of the range at 71.30 on WTI is likley to give way at some point quite soon. If you've been playing this range over the last week it's holding right now at 150 pips off the high pretty much but not worth buying again here. It should fall away to 69.69 and if that then fails to the lower parallel at 66.81. Any subsequent failure from here on to hold on to that lower parallel will tip WTI back into bear territory - can then follow short again if we see it further out in time.
FX:USOILShort
by sumastardon
UKOIL: Brent Crude Oil Short Term Topping FormationBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update Bad Bad Thing Sometimes you have to own up to an over-ambitious call, this one made worse by sheer blindness, which really stings. It ain't an eroor in the chart which is as good as gold still right now. More an error with the pilot...who spotted a large and still bona fide reverse head and shoulders with an eventual upside target at 91.86 - but completely failed to see the very obvious smaller reverse head and shoulders shown on the chart, this time with an upside target at 80.15. Yesterday, that level was reached. My very bad. Sorry for that blind oversight. Now Brent is unwinding within a range bounded by 80.15-80.57 on the upside and 77.85 on the downside. This range belongs to day traders in the neat term, selling off the high line and buying back off the 78-77.85 range. If Brent is to go into a longer period of consolidation it should be now, from the top of the completed smaller RHS target at 80.15. If so, it will soon go on to break below the 77.85 level and that should trigger swing traders short looking for a test of 72.69 and the lower dynamic before it bounces away to the upside again. Worth following once we see it. Returning to the upside Brent has to break and hold above 80.60 to trigger the next long from here up to 87. The next resistance level of any real significance above here lies at 88.35 and then 91.86 which is the longer term target implied by the larger and more ambitious of the two RHS's. Until then, unless day trading this complex, swing traders are advised to await the next signal here before following with stops around 50 pips or so above/below the break levels when triggered.
TVC:UKOIL
by sumastardon
EURUSD: Top Formation: more weakness in store post counter-rallyEURUSD As DXY goes up so this pair falls, sliding down a pair of competing parallels towards the 1.2027 line and probably to the 1.1915 line by mid May. But in very near term it's already touching the lower parallels and is likely to push back as high as the upper parallels at very best on the attempted counter rally from here. Continue to sell rallies until the downside target is met. For confirmation of the next down-wave from here DXY has to break above 91.95 and thereby force this pair lower still to 1.2027 and then to 1.1915. Please see DXY comment for further detail/confirmation signals
Short
by sumastardon
1
BTC - Bitcoin possible wedge breakout formationBitcoin is showing MACD cross + low RSI the last couple of days, which indicates room for growth. There are two possible BTC scenarios if the wedge continues this formation, we can have an early breakout (#1), if that one fails we go for scenario (#2). NOTE: The upper wedge line could be a little bit off, because there is no wedge confirmation yet. (This is not financial advice, this is a volatile market where anything can happen)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FUDDER
1
BTCUSD "M" FormationsPretty ugly chart, but we'll look past that for a bit. BTCUSD has been making multiple M formations over the last few weeks and it appears we are retesting the neckline of the M that began at $7,200. By formation, the target for the decision point lies in the range of $8,300, along the .236 retracement point on the fib levels running from $6,000 to $11,800. If the neckline holds, we will remain within the symmetrical triangle and most likely retest the upper bound in the range of $8,700 to $8,900. However, if the neckline fails, we will most likely retrace to the .786 levels on the fib levels from $7,200 to 9,200, which would place us in the range of $7,700. I am relatively bearish, given the lack of buying pressure and weakening sentiment of the market. This momentum might also accelerate on the implementation of the petroyuan (to compete against the petrodollar) on Monday, March 26th, which has been pushing down the US stock markets over the last while. Given bitcoin's tendency to hold hands with the stock market in volatile intraday markets, it is likely we will follow and mirror any extreme moves. More information on the petroyuan implementation can be read about here: www.zerohedge.com Let's see how it plays out.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by checkm8
The neighbors on the other side. (AUDNZD)It's been a while but lets get right to it. Weekly The orange line I drew up is from the highest high back in 2011 (about a 3,745 pip range). This line was broken last year in July. Recently it's established a consolidation area in the past month and can be seen that momentum has slowed for a bullish outlook. As you can see the recent top has not been touched since late 2015. Daily The daily RSI shows some up-ticks, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover though prices on the chart are consolidating. This timeframe also allows us to see the bullish flag in the making, along with the intended target. I've also played the opposing side to see the strength of a bearish turnout. The elliot wave has not finished developing either and we can be seeing a rise to the .618 retracement then a fall down to the .382 retracement. Although this analysis is brief I do believe the chart will go up to retest the 2015 high. So far I am bullish because we still have some room to go up, if not to the top of the channel, then to the resistance from (0)-(1) on the bullish wave (approx. 1.0826). Looking for an entry point?
by jordvnflows
Wedge formation and Break out continuation for AUSSIE US markets stay hyper inflated and the trend is continuing on the same path. UP! Now that inflation data is out we can trade without inflation concerns. Concentrating on our tactical entries while minimizing stop losses. Price is forming a wedge and squeezed upward eventually poised to break out. Any deviation from this will result in a broken trendline on the downside at which point trades will not be placed. Trade safe, trade well.
Long
by fromzerotospyro