BTCUSD | Daily Structure Analysis
Overview :
After breaking the last daily resistance and completing a correction on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is now trading below the 124,000 level.
If the price manages to break above 124,500, it could continue its bullish wave toward 127,500, and later 132,700, completing the upward structure.
📈 Resistance Levels:
🔺 124,500 — Key Level
🔺 127,500
🔺 132,500
📉 Support Levels:
🟩 117,700
🟩 114,500
🟩 107,300 — Key Level
🧠 Analytical Note:
A breakout and retest (pullback) of any key level could define the next directional move — whether bullish or bearish.
Currently, the market is testing a strong resistance area, and the reaction here will likely determine next week’s direction.
💬 What’s your outlook on Bitcoin?
Do you think BTC needs a short-term correction before continuing higher?
مرور کلی:
قیمت بیت کوین پس از شکست آخرین مقاومت در تایم فریم روزانه و تکمیل اصلاح در تایم فریم هفتگی، اکنون زیر سقف 124,000 دلار قرار دارد.
در صورتی که قیمت بتواند مقاومت 124,500 را با قدرت بشکند، احتمال حرکت صعودی تا نواحی 127,500 و سپس 132,700 وجود دارد و میتواند موج صعودی فعلی خود را تکمیل کند.
📈 نواحی مقاومت (Resistance Levels):
🔻 124,500 — Key Level
🔻 127,500
🔻 132,500
📉 نواحی حمایت (Support Levels):
🔰 117,700
🔰 114,500
🔰 107,300 — Key Level
🧠 نکته تحلیلی:
شکست هر یک از نواحی کلیدی و بازگشت (پولبک) به آن ها میتواند مسیر حرکت بعدی بازار را مشخص کند؛ چه در جهت صعودی و چه نزولی.
در حال حاضر بازار زیر ناحیهی مقاومتی کلیدی قرار دارد و واکنش قیمت به این سطح میتواند جهت هفته ی آینده را تعیین کند.
💬 نظر شما چیست؟
به نظر شما بیتکوین پیش از ادامه ی حرکت، نیاز به یک استراحت کوتاه ندارد؟
Fractal
BTC's 2021 Playbook is Back Are You Ready for the Final Rally?History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And right now, Bitcoin is composing a symphony we've heard before, one that ended in a PARABOLIC EXPLOSION.
We're looking at a potential BEARISH CRAB PATTERN on the daily chart, and it's a near perfect mirror of the 2017-2021 prototype that launched us to the last cycle top. Buckle up.
The Simple Breakdown:
1. THE ACTIVATION TRIGGER: A daily close ABOVE $124,545. This is the launch button.
2. THE BUY THE DIP ZONE: $118k to $120k. Any dip here could be a gift before the rip.
3. THE FAIL SAFE: A daily close BELOW $107k invalidates the setup. This is our line in the sand.
THE TARGETS:
1. Minimum Target: $136,576
2. Extended Target: $147,700-$160k
The Ghost of Cycles Past (Right Chart):
Look at the 2017-2021 prototype. The C to D leg wasn't just a rally; it was a BLOW OFF TOP of historic proportions. It delivered the targets and then some before exhaustion set in.
The current structure is screaming that we could be at the same inflection point.
This isn't just another pattern. This is a cyclical blueprint suggesting Bitcoin is gearing up for the FINAL, EXPLOSIVE LEG of this cycle.
If this Crab confirms, we are targeting the $136K to $147K+ zone as the potential cycle peak. This is where liquidity floods in and volatility goes vertical.
A Word of Caution:
Always trade with a plan. The invalidation level at $107K is crucial. A break below there means the setup is broken, and we must re-assess.
The takeaway? All eyes on the $124.5K breakout. This could be the start of the grand finale.
XAU/USD 06 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per previous intraday analysis whereby I mentioned price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within an established internal range, however, bearish pullback was insignificant relative to recent price action, therefore, I will not classify the bullish, I have however marked this in red.
Price has continued bullish printing ATH's. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, thereafter trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,949.670.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per my intraday analysis dated 02 October 2025 whereby I mentioned price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,895.500.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Price is now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting internal high priced at 3,949.670
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially target strong internal low as H4 TF enters it's bearish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
The Altcoin Breakout is HERE this is Your Game Changer!The stage is set. While Bitcoin consolidates its historic breakout, the real narrative shift is quietly unfolding in the altcoin universe.
The TOTAL3 chart (Total Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH) is on the verge of confirming one of the most reliable and powerful bullish patterns in technical analysis: a massive Weekly Cup & Handle formation.
The current weekly candle isn't just testing the pattern's neckline, it's powering through it. This isn't just another test; this is the trigger event we've been waiting for.
The Moment of Truth: This Weekly Close is Everything
A confirmed weekly close above this neckline resistance is the final green light. It signals that the months of re-accumulation are over and the true Altcoin Cycle expansion phase is beginning.
This is the moment where "Alt Season" transitions from a hopeful whisper to a market structure reality.
Key Targets to Watch
The Cup and Handle pattern provides a clear, measured move projection.
1. Initial Breakout Target: $1.93 Trillion
2. Full Pattern Target (Cup & Handle): ~$4.39 Trillion
This is the grand prize. Achieving this target would represent a historic rally for the altcoin market cap and imply a period of explosive, parabolic growth for select altcoins.
What This Means For You
This breakout is more than just a lines on a chart event. It signals a profound shift in market dynamics.
1. Liquidity Rotation: As Bitcoin's dominance potentially stabilizes or dips, capital will aggressively flow into the altcoin space seeking higher returns.
2. Sentiment Shift: Fear and uncertainty will be replaced by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), driving valuations higher at an accelerating pace.
3. From Accumulation to Parabola: We are moving out of the stealth accumulation phase and into the public markup phase.
4. The message is crystal clear: If you thought you missed the run, think again. The altcoin chapter is just turning its most exciting page.
Here are the plan to follow
1. Aggressive: A confirmed weekly close above the neckline is a strong buy signal for broad altcoin exposure (via majors like ETH, or baskets).
2. Conservative: Use any retest of the former neckline (now turned support) as a high-probability entry point.
Watch this weekly close like a hawk. It's not just another candle, it's the starting pistol.
Like, follow, and let me know in the comments: Which altcoin sectors are you watching most closely for leadership in this oncoming bullrun?
$BTC / Total Global Liquidity / Treasury General Account How hilarious is this - ₿itcoin ended up reaching a new ATH just 5 days after I expected. I was 2 days off on my last call if you remember. And the several before I nailed to the day.
Remember all the grave-dancers last week who were showing you the decorrelation between CRYPTOCAP:BTC & Global Liquidity??
🐤 chirp chirp 😂
It was clear the Treasury General Account was the cause for this deviation, therefore I added it on this chart alongside Total Global Liquidity to monitor more closely.
Note - the TGA is already included in the TGL index, but it appears to hold much more weight so it’s best to look at it alongside.
I also took out the inverted DXY since it’s been tracking near 1 to 1 and was used simply to show confluence.
Now that Fiscal Year Q1 2026 has started, the TGA refill is complete, which will finance the ~$325 Billion outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill for defense, border security etc. This will also be financed in the form of short-term T-Bill issuance (what I've written about before).
Then we see the trickle down effect as money makes it’s way through the economy and the business cycle booms which is tracked through the ISM PMI.
The latest print on Sept. 30th showed a 1-point uptick now at 49.1, which is a point higher than last month’s reading. I’m confident the next several months will show readings above 50 which show continued growth in the business cycle and health of the overall economy.
To all the haterz - FU HIGHER 🚀
EURUSD STRUCTURE IS NOW BULLISH AFTER HH/HL SINCE 2018!Fibre structure has turned bullish since 2018 when the pair has been creating a LL/LH. A further pullback into the discount area with good rejection, will likely strengthen the bullish outlook further...
N.B!
- EURUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#eurusd
$SOLUSD: Scaling LawsResearch Notes
Progressions here are evident so I'll use the historic bits and organize them into structure that would determine the levels inside dark highlighted zone of the local scope.
If we scale back, it's hard to avoid the massive drop that structurally can serve as reference point.
Getting in early on a trend reversal (EUR/JPY)Setup
Bearish: Potential long term top.
Bearish engulfing candlestick from multi-year highs
RSI has dropped from 70 overbought
Signal
Fakeout: Looking for rebound to stall near the former resistance at 174.
RSI bearish divergence, taken out support
Caution: uptrend line has held so far. A break would confirm trend reversal.
Too early to trade the reversal?
Would you weait for a breakdown first ?
Let's discuss
Ta, Jasper
XAU/USD 03 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per previous intraday analysis whereby I mentioned price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within an established internal range
Intraday Expectation:
Price continue bearish, down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,897.130.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterdays analysis dated 02 October 2025.
As per previous intraday expectation, price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation .
Price is now trading within an established internal range
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,895.500.
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially target strong internal low as H4 TF enters it's bearish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
PETCO (WOOF) Fractal into TargetOn the higher timeframes, WOOF has consolidated above all major moving averages, signaling a reversal from its long-term downtrend. It has also established support along trend lines. From a fundamental perspective, the impact of store closures appears fully priced in, and these closures should improve net profit by eliminating underperforming locations. Combined with the onset of a new market cycle, this positions WOOF for potential upside momentum.
With both the technical and fundamental factors aligned, the current short-term fractal fits neatly into broader trading patterns, pointing toward a near-term target in the $5.10–$5.20 range.
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is consolidating near a key support zone. If this support holds, buyers may drive price higher with the potential for a strong bullish continuation and possibly new highs.
But if this level breaks down, a bearish move could follow. For now, focus remains on the buy side as long as the support structure is respected.
XAU/USD 02 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterdays analysis dated 01 October 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's intraday analysis whereby I mentioned in alternative scenario that price could print higher, however, weak internal high price target has changed.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,871.890.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per yesterday's intraday expectation, price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation .
Price is now trading within an established internal range
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,895.500.
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially target strong internal low as H4 TF enters it's bearish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart :
Gold longLooking for the continuation of the bullishness on gold.
Yesterday it came down to a strong demand, the demand was respected and we are seeing a shift in bias again. The liquidity is grabbed from the weak high now, after the mitigation down to the newly created demand I will be looking to buy and target the daily highs.
BTC Medium Term and Local Work for 2025 18 05 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Everything is shown extremely accurately, according to technical analysis, logic based on cyclical repetition, and liquidity consolidation zones as a result of price and trading movements. This trading idea, with precise reversal zones and targets, will last you for 31 weeks. That is, for 7 months.
The previous trading idea BTC/USD Triangle. Medium-term and local work , published on 7 06 2024, it lasted me almost 1 year. It has 63 local work updates (I don't spam with new trading ideas on principle). So, nothing will get lost, you can follow everything, read, possibly use it as training material on a live chart, as a whole explanation of local work, what is really happening on the market, profit/loss potential, always before the price movement, and not after the fact. I show what is, that is, a chart and potential work from the position of a trader, not a crypto marketer.
🟣 Local and medium urgent now
1️⃣💸 The bullish triangle itself (which is not there yet, I have depicted it on the chart for you) acts as a stop and consolidation zone (zone “psychology 100”, reset in trend No. 1). This is the easiest to manipulate and the most probable scenario. This will just be the summer consolidation. Instead of it, there may be:
2️⃣💸 Rising wedge , but more in shape like a triangle (essentially a wedge, there is a meaning of a triangle, but it was formed on aggressive pump news), with a large short liquidity takeout, and not very good logic of the TA movement after that... But, this is a bullish scenario, although quite aggressive.
3️⃣ Working out the bearish targets of the triangle (non-corrective price movement within its canvas). Stopping the decline in the designated zone and reversal upward (continuation of the trend). I emphasize the importance of not fixing the price below the zone of targets of the local corrective decline, which will not break the trend.
4️⃣💸 Double top (or triple). Double top as in 2021 in the distribution zone. This is the least likely scenario, but the most negative, as it breaks the trend. But, this is the least likely scenario, primarily because of the altcoins.
Altcoins in 2021 and now.
4️⃣In 2021, when Bitcoin formed a double top, they (altcoins) were in “space”, that is, in their distribution zones (+500-1000% of the average price of the set).
🔽Now everything is the other way around, they are in capitulation zones (most of them) or in their long-term accumulation channels :
Liquid -90-93%
Medium liquid -93-96%
Low liquid -96-98% or some are already scams or on the verge of it...
Some altcoins have pumped up earlier. That is, they left their long-term accumulation zones earlier. For example: SUN, XRP, DOGE, PEPE, SOL and so on... But there are very few of them, as distributing (raising the price, holding it and selling, inspiring to buy expensive when everything is cheap) in a bearish altcoin trend is very irrational, and you need a lot of money to go against the general market trend.
Main trend (most of it, chart since Binance Exchange foundation) for clarity on a large time frame of this local zone for work.
BTC Primary trend. Secondary — expanding triangle.
ETH Recovery Underway: Momentum Building!ETH Recovery Underway: Momentum Building!
Ethereum (ETH) is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal on the 4-hour timeframe. After a significant correction from the 4800-4900 "Sell Order Block" and breaking down through the 4500 "Flip Zone," ETH found strong support around the 3850 key level.
From that low, we've observed the formation of an ascending trendline, indicating a series of higher lows and a gradual recovery in buying interest. The price has successfully climbed back above the 4000 psychological support level and is now testing a more immediate resistance zone, as indicated by the smaller gray box.
A decisive break above this current resistance, potentially pushing towards the 4500 "Flip Zone" again, would significantly strengthen the bullish case. However, maintaining price action above the ascending trendline and the 4000 level is crucial to sustain this recovery momentum. Failure to hold these levels could see ETH retesting the 3850 key support.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
$AMD: Sierpinski Fibs (Surgery I)⚖️ TOPOLOGY
Directional Scaling
Sierpinski interconnection based on 3 coordinates
Linking first impulsive wave of nested cycles. In contrast they must be steeper in order to cover the time aspect of higher-frequency oscillations more precisely.
Original Sierpinski
Point of all this is to explore new ways to geometrically quantify the temporal patterns using initial measurements, so that future price's nested cycles would rhyme with the structure.
XAU/USD 01 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per yesterday's intraday analysis whereby I mentioned in alternative scenario that price could print higher, however, weak internal high price target has changed.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,871.890.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per yesterday's intraday analysis whereby I mentioned price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,871.890.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,895.500.
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially target strong internal low as H4 TF enters it's bearish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
MMC / Marsh % McLennan / Seasonality & FractalMy analysis gives me a hint that MMC could go up to the marked area. The upmove, from aseasonality point of view could finish around beginning of December.
After reaching the price and time downlside is coming. The bearhish period in PE+2 year should bring price down to break the double low until end of April 2026.
This is not a tradecall nor financial advice. Good Luck
I d be happy to see your comments on this and some "rockets" (but keep in mind: Space is Fake!!)
Cheers!
XAU/USD 30 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per yesterday's intraday analysis whereby I mentioned in alternative scenario that price could print higher.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,871.890.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per alternative scenario of yesterday's intraday analysis, price continued to push higher.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH before continuing with it's bullish momentum, however, I shall not classify this due to the very insignificant pullback. This has been marked in red.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,871.890.
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially target strong internal low as H4 TF enters it's bearish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:






















