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Fractal

THE 4-YEAR CYCLE WILL NEVER ENDTHE 4-YEAR CYCLE WILL NEVER END. As I’ve said many times before, I now think this cycle will push into late January / February 2026, similar to 2017. As I’ve written extensively about, the macro setup is nearly identical to 2017. Read that here. The funny thing is, when we do push into early Q1 ‘26, all your favorite “influencers” will proclaim “this time is different”, because most weren’t here during the 2017 cycle or before. There is ZERO EVIDENCE that the 4-year cycle is dead. Since the GFC in 2008, the Fed was redesigned for these boom and bust cycles to counter inflation and unemployment. At this point, unless the US completely dismantles the Fed, the 4-year cycle will live on in perpetuity. We see the effect of this on TradFi as well. See the comparison here. The Fed is set to cut interest rates for the first time in a year at tomorrow’s FOMC. This is a liquidity positive catalyst for markets. The next ISM PMI print on October 1st should be ~50, which will be the start of the business cycle. That would give us ~5 months of a surging business cycle, which will pump risk assets to VALHALLA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
1
XAU/USD 16 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red. Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price is currently trading within and internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
WTI long or short?Personally i don't see the short becuase we are on a huge buying range, which means that if the market really wants to go down will have to work. Not only that but also they already tried to push the market down that the process failed when buyers stepped in around the 62s. Anyway, on 4h im seeing how the first time that it got to 62 the buyer appeared aggresively and the second time they literally stopped the market from continue falling. According to what i have said, it is possible to project potential purchases once it breaks 64.192 however, we have to be sure that it is a high quality brea (all the mases can see it and are already in) After that, it is as simple as waiting for a shakeut (wait until they have created liquidity and reclaimed 64.192) after that the market is very likely to go to 65.349. if im correct, i will cover at least 60-70% or more because ill be going against a huge wall and we might still be on AB or already an internal process of D. Lets see
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by XMONCAYOX8
BItcoin: Recent history relative to priorOn the basis of earlier probabilistic map (which captured how price is being governed by golden rule on a bigger scale) , I'd look for same relationship to interconnect the chart on the short-term too. So at this point it's also important One of the earlier significant price developments would include the fact of bottoming late 2022 after the fall of -77%. Since currently the price is way above those levels, it allows the use of the line which connect covid and 2022 bottom. We also established that connection of two bottoms defines the wavelength 983 Days, thus the direction of that line can be used as axis of deviation plotted with fibs. The direction of the fall of -77% can be used to define the frequency of cycles from late 2022. Together they produce another interference patten that defines the uncertainty of the market. (Just to recap: The direction of fibs with shallow angle defines Price Deviation. Steep angle of direction defines the Time aspect of the waves. The steeper the angle the more it relates to timing.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
6
Tesla: Interconnected ATHsStructural update to: Chronologically connecting pivots via fib channels creates a probabilistic map that captures the rhythm and scale relationships inherent in systematic price movements. Fractal Wave Marker & Fractal Corridors were used to transform raw price data into a coherent, multiscale structure. Combo of those indicators makes you actually pay attention to ongoing patterns and get an idea how formations on smaller scale can be part of a bigger structural narrative.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract
8
XAU/USD 15 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 11 September 2025. Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025 As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have marked this in red. Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 11 September 2025. Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS. Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price is currently trading within and internal low and internal high as price has printed a bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Why Western Capital Avoids RussiaRESEARCH NOTES ⚖️ Geopolitical Profile I've heard Senator John Kennedy on radio talking about sanctioning Russia, which made me think of deeper reasons of why the West and Russia have been confronting since forever. In short, the West sees Russia as not a normal investment destination because it doesn't function as rule-based market economy. Law as a Tool, Not a Framework – In Russia, laws apply only to commoners. Elites live “above the law,” operating through privileges and unwritten instructions. This makes legal protections for investors meaningless. Clan-Based Power – Industries and regions are controlled by clans. Investors are not protected by institutions but are instead vulnerable to arbitrary clan rivalries and “re-appropriation” of assets. Criminalized Economy – What counts as a “crime” is class-based. For elites, asset seizure is a privilege, not theft. Contracts and ownership rights can be revoked overnight. Weaponized Ambiguity – Vague laws exist so they can be selectively enforced against rivals or outsiders. This creates permanent uncertainty for foreign capital. Expansionist Instability – The system constantly produces “hungry hunters.” With limited internal resources, external conquest (Ukraine, other neighbors) becomes a survival strategy, raising geopolitical risk. What the West sees as sins: Lack of Rule of Law → No enforceable contracts, no independent courts. High Expropriation Risk → Assets can be seized by clans or the state at any time. Cultural Romanticization of Criminality → Western mindset can't digest a "business climate" where “power > rules”. Foreign direct investment has collapsed, major Western firms exited, and capital flight continues. Russia is now increasingly dependent on China, the Middle East, and shadow finance channels to sustain liquidity. This will only make FX_IDC:USDRUB appreciate in the long-term. Western capital avoids Russia because it is structurally unsafe. Until the system shifts from a feudal-mafia hierarchy to a rule-based economy, I believe sanctions won't be canceled anytime soon and foreign investors will treat Russia as uninvestable.
Long
by fract
5
XAU/USD 12 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2025. Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025 As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have marked this in red. Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2025. Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS. Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price is currently trading within and internal low and internal high as price has printed a bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
OTC Market📉 Pump and Dump Strategies: Why They’re Toxic 1. What is a Pump and Dump? Definition: A promoter secretly buys a large block of a penny stock, then hypes it with false/misleading claims (insider info, patents, big deals, etc.). Pump phase: Price rises because traders chase momentum and FOMO sets in. Dump phase: Promoter unloads shares at inflated prices → latecomers take the losses. Similarity: Works like a Ponzi — profits for the first in, big losses for the last in. 2. Why Penny Stocks? Thinly traded → small amounts of money can move prices 100%+. Low price illusion → “cheap” stocks attract naive traders. Limited disclosure → OTC markets don’t have the same transparency or SEC filings as major exchanges. 3. The Psychology Behind It FOMO Bias: Investors see a stock up 200%, assume more gains are coming, and rush in. Herd Mentality: More people pile in as the rumor spreads (now accelerated by Twitter, Reddit, Discord, etc.). Bias Reinforcement: Early winners brag about profits, pulling more late buyers in. 4. Historical Example John “Lebanon” (alias) in 1999–2000 promoted penny stocks online. At 16 years old, made ~$1M before SEC settlement forced him to repay most gains. Shows how profitable but illegal these schemes can be. 5. Data Against OTC Stocks Study (“The Twilight Zone,” Brüggeman et al.): Reviewed 10,000 OTC stocks (2001–2010). Average return: –27% Median return: –37% Translation: For every one stock that goes +1000%, dozens collapse to near zero. Skewed distribution: A few outliers give false hope, but most are losers. 6. The Wolf of Wall Street Parallel 1990s “boiler rooms” = cold-call centers pushing penny stocks. Today → replaced by social media hype (same playbook, faster reach). The JAMN chart (2011) shows exactly how volume spikes first, then price spikes, then crashes back to pre-pump levels. 7. Why They’re So Dangerous Illegal under SEC/FINRA rules. Immoral — only insiders benefit. Zero-sum (or worse) — short-term trading is mostly zero-sum, but pump-and-dump leaves many big losers. Retail trap — latecomers almost always lose money. ✅ Takeaways for Investors & Traders Avoid OTC penny stocks as a long-term investment vehicle. If something sounds like a guaranteed win, it’s likely a promotion, not a discovery. Don’t chase 500–1000% moves — statistically, you’re far more likely to buy the loser than the winner. Focus instead on regulated exchanges, liquid names, and proven strategies (like your futures, gold/silver seasonality, REITs, etc.). 👉 In one line: Pump-and-dump strategies aren’t just illegal — they’re designed to transfer money from the many to the few, and history plus data show OTC penny stocks are graveyards for capital. 📉 Shorting Penny Stock Runners on the First Red Day 1. Strategy Idea Premise: Ultra-low-priced stocks that spike +100% to +500% in a short time (3 days or less) almost always collapse back to their base price. Why? Because these moves are usually fueled by hype (press releases, chat rooms, “AI stock,” “cannabis stock,” etc.) and thin liquidity. Execution: Wait for the first red hourly candle (close below the previous close) after the parabolic move, then short. 2. Criteria to Screen Stocks Price: Low price, small-sized companies. Volume: At least 100k shares traded daily during the spike (liquidity for entry/exit). Spike: Stock up 100%+ in 3 trading days or less. Catalyst: Often weak (paid promotion, vague press release, sector hype). Float: Preferably low float (<20M shares) → parabolic spikes fade faster. 3. Entry & Exit Rules Entry (Short): Only enter on the first red day close after the multiple-day run. Confirmation = intraday lower highs + heavy selling volume. Exit (Cover): Near support (often halfway back down the spike). Or use VWAP intraday as a guide — cover if reclaimed. I would look for entry around the bands and have the TP/SL at the next band. Stop-Loss: If price reclaims highs → cut. Keep risk tight (these can gap against you). Sometimes it just keep going up. 4. Risk Management Penny stocks are highly manipulated — never size too big. Rule of thumb: Risk no more than 1–2% of account per trade. Consider using options (puts) if available — limits max loss. Avoid overnight shorts on day 1 red — promoters can gap the stock up again. Safer to short intraday or skip. 5. Example Playbook Day 1–3: Stock goes from $0.70 → $2.20 (+214%). Day 4 (First Red Day): Closes at $1.95 after hitting $2.40 intraday. Short Entry: End of Day 4 at $1.90. Target: Cover at $1.20–$1.40 (50–70% retrace). Stop: Above $2.40 intraday high. 6. Pros & Cons ✅ Pros High-probability setup (over 70%+ collapse rate historically). Clear entry signal (first red day). Works repeatedly because human FOMO behavior never changes. ❌ Cons High borrow fees (hard-to-borrow shares). Risk of “second leg” pumps. Regulators watch shorting penny stocks closely — need proper broker. 7. Tools to Implement Screeners: TradingView stock screener → filter “Float 1M to 20M, New High 1 Month, Pre-Market Gap >2%, and ATR(14) > 0.5 or ADR > 5%”. Relative Volume helps, if you see it go lower with a fading volume, then it's a sign of bullish reversal. Chart Pattern Recognition: Look for parabolic blow-offs with volume climax. I track VWAP.
NYSE:GMEShort
by GabrielAmadeusLau
5
XAU/USD 11 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025 As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have marked this in red. Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS. Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price is currently trading within and internal low and internal high as price has printed a bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 09 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025 As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have marked this in red. Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,659.435. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS. Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. Price is currently trading within and internal low and internal high as price has printed a bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,659.435. Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK