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GOLD - Consolidation before resistance at 4470. Bullish trendFX:XAUUSD resumes growth and tests 4470, an important resistance level, amid a weakening dollar caused by expectations of further easing of Fed policy and continuing geopolitical uncertainty. Expectations of a Fed rate cut intensified after the release of weak ISM Manufacturing PMI data. Geopolitical risks have temporarily receded into the background, but remain a potential catalyst for a new wave of demand for safe-haven assets. Attention is shifting to US labor market data (ADP report and JOLTS vacancies on Wednesday, NFP on Friday). Weak employment figures could increase pressure on the dollar and support gold. Important nuances: China and Russia's reaction to US actions in Venezuela, as well as the open conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Further dynamics will depend on employment data and a possible escalation of the geopolitical situation. A break above $4470 will open the way to testing higher levels. Resistance levels: 4470, 4488, 4519 Support levels: 4440, 4430, 4400 If the metal does not pull back from 4470 and continues to storm the resistance, then attempts to continue growth from 4470 can be considered. Otherwise, the market may test 4440-4430 before rising (long squeeze). Within the current cycle, gold has a chance to test its ATH. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
27
EURCAD: Smart Money Trap LoadingMacro / COT The latest COT data paints an interesting picture: EUR – Non-Commercials remain heavily net-long, and long exposure continues to increase. This indicates that a large portion of speculative capital is already positioned to the upside. CAD – Commercials are accumulating long exposure, while Non-Commercials are reducing longs and adding shorts. From a Smart Money perspective, when commercials accumulate, they historically tend to anticipate medium-term reversals. This increases the probability that EURCAD is entering a distribution phase. Seasonality Historically, January is not supportive for the Euro. Multi-timeframe seasonality data (2–20 years) shows a negative tendency during the early part of the year. This reinforces a medium-term bearish bias, especially after technical relief rallies. Retail Sentiment Currently, 73% of retail traders are SHORT EURCAD. Such an extreme imbalance increases the probability of a temporary bullish squeeze, often used to clean weak retail shorts before the real directional move takes place. In other words: bullish spike first → potential bearish reversal afterwards. Price Action — Daily Chart On the daily chart, price is trading inside a descending channel and bouncing from lower demand, moving toward a key supply area between 1.6180 – 1.6250. The technical structure suggests: 1️⃣ Potential push higher into supply 2️⃣ Reaction and shift in structure 3️⃣ Targets around 1.6000 – 1.6030 RSI confirms weak momentum on rallies — an ideal context to sell a deep retracement rather than chase breakouts. Key Levels Sell Zone: 1.6180 – 1.6250 Target: 1.6030 → extension 1.5980 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.6300 This scenario remains valid as long as price does not structurally break above the supply block.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
New ATH Incoming? Gold (XAUUSD) Holds Bullish Structure!Hey Traders, In today’s trading session, we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around the 4,380 zone. Gold remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently in a corrective phase approaching the key trendline confluence and the 4,380 support & resistance area, which may act as a strong demand zone for continuation to the upside. From a fundamental perspective, markets are keenly watching US labor data due Friday. Should the report come in soft, it would likely reinforce expectations of further Fed rate cuts in January, similar to December’s dovish messaging, which tends to weaken the US Dollar and support bullish flows into Gold. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have boosted safe-haven demand, as investors seek protection amid heightened uncertainty, pressuring traditional assets and strengthening gold’s appeal. With these technical and macro drivers aligned, Gold may continue its bullish trajectory and challenge fresh all-time highs this year. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk responsibly. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
8
GOLD - Retesting support at 4440 ahead of the news FX:XAUUSD is correcting from weekly highs of $4,500 amid a rising dollar and profit-taking ahead of key US labor market data The market expects two Fed rate cuts in 2026. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in December (47.9) was lower than expected, reinforcing expectations of a dovish policy. In addition, geopolitical risks remain (Russia's actions off the coast of Venezuela, tensions between China and Japan), which continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Today, ADP employment data, JOLTS job openings, and the ISM services index will be released. Weak indicators could increase pressure on the dollar and support gold. The correction appears to be technical amid profit-taking. The uptrend remains intact as the dollar remains under pressure due to expectations of Fed policy easing. Any decline in gold can be seen as a buying opportunity. Resistance levels: 4475, 4497, 4520 Support levels: 4442, 4430, 4402 Two key support zones relative to the current trading range: 4442 - 4430. A long squeeze and liquidity capture followed by price consolidation above key levels could shift the imbalance towards the buyer (bullish trend)... Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
2
#SILVER: Swing Buying Up To Yearly End Target Of $100XAGUSD(SILVER) ANALYSIS🎇 🔺After a big rally, silver took a dip, dropping about $70 from its high of $82. But don’t worry, it’s bounced back from $70 and is now trading at $80, with a chance to hit $85 by the end of January. The market is a bit wild right now, mostly because of recent political stuff. 🔺We’ve got three potential goals for this swing trade: we’re aiming for a first target at $85, then a second at $90 and a final one at $100. This plan is for a longer stay, maybe even a year. But since things have been so up and down lately, we’re betting the price will keep climbing. 🔺If you think our analysis is helpful, please give us a thumbs up and share your thoughts in the comments. SetupsFX Team👨‍💻🏆
CAPITALCOM:SILVERLong
by Setupsfx_
24
DOGEUSDT - Consolidation after growth is a positive signBINANCE:DOGEUSDT is testing resistance, but the coin is not going to reverse yet. Focus on the current consolidation at 0.145 - 0.1534. A long squeeze or a breakout of resistance could trigger growth. Bitcoin has been growing throughout the week, forming a retest of resistance. If the growth continues, it could support a bullish run in altcoins. After the rally, DOGE moved into consolidation at 0.145 - 0.1533. The market is showing positive dynamics. The altcoin may test the consolidation support before growing. However, a breakout of the 0.1533 resistance and a close above the level could trigger an early rise. Resistance levels: 0.1534, 0.1648 Support levels: 0.145, 0.139 Regarding the current consolidation in the trading range format, I highlight two levels: 0.1534 and 0.145. If the overall positive background persists, a false breakdown of support at 0.145 or a breakout of resistance at 0.1534 with the price closing above the level could trigger further growth towards the local zone of interest at 0.165. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
10
The one thing that destroys tradersEmotional inflation is a measurable drag on trading performance, particularly in crypto where momentum cycles are short, liquidity is thin, and feedback loops are fast. After a trader strings together strong wins, confidence often expands faster than process. The trader begins to treat recent outcomes as a new baseline for risk. This leads to size increases, earlier entries, or skipping structural confirmation because the mind assumes the market will continue to cooperate. It feels logical in the moment, but it is not rooted in market behavior. The market eventually tests this inflated confidence through liquidity sweeps, compressed volatility, or reclaiming defensive structure. The result is capital giveback, distorted expectations, and emotional volatility that exceeds price volatility. The cost of emotional inflation is not that it creates bad trades. The cost is that it removes the conditions that made your best trades possible. When confidence accelerates exposure before the market proves continuation through structure and liquidity, you are no longer trading opportunity. You are trading assumption. Crypto punishes assumption faster than most markets because liquidity leaves quickly, bid depth changes abruptly, and breakout traders provide easy fuel for counter moves. Inflation becomes visible in three repeatable behaviors: increasing size during expansion phases instead of compression phases, entering at the first touch of a level instead of after a structural transition, and treating recent wins as proof of future market cooperation. These behaviors are not personality flaws. They are pattern loops that can be corrected with objective rules and sequencing. To counter emotional inflation, you need guardrails that do not depend on feelings. The first guardrail is a fixed sizing model tied to volatility conditions, not P&L conditions. Size should increase only when volatility tightens, liquidity aligns cleanly, and structure confirms control. In expansion phases, size must stay anchored to predefined limits because invalidation distance widens when liquidity thins. This keeps risk mathematically stable while confidence psychologically fluctuates. The second guardrail is daily narrative rebuilding. Bias is constructed from the higher timeframe story, not the previous trade’s outcome. If the weekly and daily structure have not changed, your job is to wait for liquidity incentives and micro-structural permission before expanding exposure. A trader who rebuilds bias every session stays psychologically neutral when the market is structurally neutral. The third guardrail is retest discipline. A retest is not a candle. It is acceptance. The retest validates participation, reduces invalidation distance, and reveals whether the market internalized the structural break or sweep. Entering before the retest is entering during the liquidity hunt. Entering after the retest is entering after participation is proven. This is where professionals position, not because they are late, but because they are validated. Retests compress emotional cycles because they remove the need to hope a level will hold. The fourth guardrail is execution quality scoring. Track trades by sequence: liquidity taken first, structure broken second, displacement confirmed third, retest respected fourth. Grade your execution on fill precision, conditional sizing, and narrative alignment. This shifts confidence from results to behavior, which compounds careers instead of compressing them. A journal becomes a solution only when it measures variables that lead to intervention, not reflection. Measure session volatility, invalidation distance, average R:R delivered, liquidity incentives present, and whether the entry occurred inside premium or discount relative to equilibrium. This reveals inflation risks before they hit your equity curve. Emotional inflation loses its power when you treat streaks as feedback, not permission. The best funded crypto traders do not compound because they avoid risk. They compound because they only expand risk when the market contracts volatility, aligns liquidity, and confirms structure. Confidence should drive preparation, not replace it. Calibration compounds. Inflation decays. Careers are built by traders who stay calibrated longer than they stay confident temporarily.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD.MH2026Education
by HyroTrader
11
Dollar Off to Weak Start After Worst Year Since 2017. Now What?The US dollar rang in 2026 without much enthusiasm. No fireworks. No flex. Just a quiet shuffle out of the gate that felt eerily familiar to anyone who shoved cash in FX markets last year. After logging its worst annual performance since 2017, the greenback has started the new year on the back foot — and traders are wondering whether this is merely a breather or the beginning of something more structural. If currencies had personalities, the dollar currently looks like it stayed up too late in 2025 and is still reaching for its first coffee. After all, the US currency was the worst performer of all major currency indices last year, according to the currency index performance table . 💵 The Euro Holds the Line at $1.17 Front and center in the dollar’s early-2026 wobble is the euro, which has done a solid job containing the greenback’s attempts to regain swagger. The FX:EURUSD briefly dipped toward $1.1670, only to bounce smartly after running into two major moving averages — the kind of technical speed bump that gets traders’ attention. The result? The euro stabilized near $1.17, flat on the year and comfortably above levels that once seemed ambitious. 📉 A Brutal Year in the Rearview Mirror Let’s rewind. In 2025, the dollar index TVC:DXY fell roughly 10% against a basket of major currencies, its steepest drop in nearly a decade. The early damage came fast and loud, triggered by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign back in April, which rattled global markets and reignited concerns about US growth and trade stability. At one point, the dollar was lower by 15%, before clawing back some ground. But the recovery never quite stuck. What really kept the pressure on was the Federal Reserve’s pivot back to rate cuts in September, which undermined one of the dollar’s most reliable supports: yield advantage. 🏦 Rate Cuts Change the FX Equation Currencies love interest rate differentials. They’re boring, mathematical, and extremely powerful. As the Fed moved toward easing — and signaled more to come — that differential began to shrink. The market is now pricing in two to three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2026, a meaningful shift for a currency that spent years riding the “higher for longer” narrative. Across the water, the picture looks different. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently reminded markets that “all options should remain on the table,” even as the central bank held rates steady and raised growth and inflation forecasts. TLDR: Europe isn’t in a rush (or under pressure) to cut. 📈 Why Europe (and the UK) Are Benefiting The euro was the biggest gainer among major currencies in 2025, rising nearly 14% to levels last seen in 2021. Wall Street banks now expect it to climb further — toward $1.20 by the end of 2026. Sterling isn’t far behind. Analysts see the FX:GBPUSD rising from around $1.33 to $1.36, helped by relatively sticky inflation and fewer expectations for aggressive easing from the Bank of England. 👔 Politics Enter the FX Chat Another wildcard looms over 2026: the next Fed chair. Markets are keenly aware that President Trump’s eventual pick to succeed Jay Powell could influence the dollar’s trajectory. If investors believe the next chair will be more receptive to White House pressure for deeper rate cuts, the greenback could face additional headwinds. Powell’s term ends in May, FYI. 🤖 Dollar Bulls Still Have a Case What about the bull case? Dollar bulls’ argument rests on one powerful theme: AI-driven growth. The US economy continues to benefit from massive investment in artificial intelligence, data centers, and advanced manufacturing — sectors where America remains the global leader. If that growth keeps the US economy outperforming Europe, the Fed may find it harder to cut aggressively, putting a floor under the dollar. In other words, the greenback’s obituary may be a bit premature. 🧭 So What Now? Anyway, the dollar enters 2026 without its usual moat — pressured by rate expectations, policy divergence, and lingering doubts about its haven status, especially in the wake of gold OANDA:XAUUSD shattering records . That doesn’t mean a straight-line decline. FX markets rarely move that neatly. But it does suggest that rallies may be sold rather than chased, and that traders are increasingly comfortable exploring alternatives. Off to you : Where do you see the dollar heading next? Ready to buy high and sell low, or what? Share your views in the comments!
TVC:DXY
by TradingView
10
How to audit your own trades like a risk manager would Auditing your trades is not about replaying charts to confirm whether you were right or wrong. A risk manager audits to protect capital durability, reduce mistake frequency, and identify exposures created by process, not emotion. When you adopt this mindset, performance leaks become easy to detect and easier to correct. A professional audit begins with environment classification. Every trade is labeled by the market phase it was executed in. Volatility is assessed as expanding or compressing. Liquidity incentives are identified before execution, not after it. For example, BTCUSDT and SOLUSDT produce wider candle ranges during expansion and thinner order books when liquidity drains. These are high-invalidation conditions. If you increased size here, you paid an execution tax without a volatility reason. A risk manager never scales into widening ranges. They scale into tightening ranges. The second step is measuring invalidation distance. Risk officers place stops beyond structure, not arbitrary percentages. A stop below a random 1% or 2% rule means nothing if the structure required 3.5% distance to invalidate the narrative. Your stop must sit beyond the point where the market proves the opposite story. If your invalidation distance widens while volatility expands, that is alignment. If it widens while volatility contracts, that is a process breach. Next comes execution quality scoring. Professionals deconstruct execution into sequence components: liquidity sweep first, micro-structure break second, displacement third, retest respected fourth, impulse continuation fifth. A trade that triggered on the first touch of a level without displacement is not a good fill. It is the fill the market used for liquidity. Score execution quality based on whether the sequence completed before entry, not whether the P&L was positive. The fourth layer is correlation risk. Risk auditors measure how many positions were open simultaneously on the same asset or narrative theme. One trade rarely kills a small account. Correlated trades during the same thesis do. Mistake correlation compounds drawdown faster than strategy flaws ever could. Limit correlation by design, not hindsight. Finally, audit outcomes against process wins. A trade that worked without a reason is not audit approval. A trade that worked because it followed a reasoned sequence is. When you measure behavior instead of candles, you gain intervention points. Intervention points protect capital. Reflection points identify capital already lost. Small accounts scale when traders audit like capital protection matters more than capturing the entire move. Your audit should produce fewer open questions and more closed rules. The goal is not to defend the trade. The goal is to defend the account.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
3
Alibaba - Preparing a major buying opportunity!🥇Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) creates a major break and retest: 🔎Analysis summary: For the past three years, Alibaba has perfectly been respecing all structure. And with the recent retest of a major resistance, Alibaba is now heading for a decent correction. But with the emerging bullish break and retest, Alibaba will soon create a major reversal. 📝Levels to watch: $135 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NYSE:BABALong
by SwingTraderPhil
3
XAUUSD: 1 Hour Swing Trading Setup! 05/01/2026Trading Setup 1 Hour View On XAUUSD 🔺Last week, gold experienced a significant decline as market volumes normalized. Our initial assessment anticipated a further price drop to approximately $4100. However, evolving fundamental factors and recent U.S. actions concerning Venezuela prompted global investors to seek the metal as a safe-haven asset amidst heightened geopolitical tensions. 🔺Currently, gold is trading at $4462. At this price level, we project a substantial upward movement towards $4662, indicating a strong swing buy opportunity. We have identified three target levels: the first at $4522, the second at $4593, and the final target at $4662. A stop-loss order can be strategically placed below $4440. 🔺Should you find our analysis valuable, we encourage you to like and comment for additional insights and trading setups. We strongly recommend conducting your own thorough due diligence prior to executing any trades, as this information is provided solely for educational chart analysis purposes. Sincerely, Team SetupsFX_
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
30
EURUSD Bearish Continuation From Key LevelsQuick Summary EURUSD is expected to reject from 1.17066 or 1.17264, The bearish view remains valid Price is expected to continue lower toward 1.16591 This low represents a liquidity target linked to the previous FVG reaction Full Analysis I will wait for EURUSD to show a bearish reaction from either 1.17066 or 1.17264 This plan is aligned with the ongoing bearish outlook on the pair Price is expected to continue moving lower with the main objective being the low at 1.16591 This level is considered a liquidity target because price previously touched the FVG and moved up immediately Such behavior often leaves unfinished business within the FVG For that reason price may return lower to trade deeper into that zone before any meaningful reaction occurs
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
4
NZD/USD Long Bias – This Week’s RationaleI’m planning a NZD/USD long based on multi-layer alignment across macro, positioning, sentiment, and rates. 1. USD-side weakness (macro & data risk): This week’s key USD releases (ISM, ADP, NFP, Jobless Claims) are skewed to the downside. Recent outcomes already showed that even when expectations were bullish, actual data disappointed, keeping USD vulnerable post-release. 2. COT positioning confirms USD pressure: USD COT: Net short (~-105k) → structural USD weakness. NZD COT: +0.83% bullish → steady accumulation, no crowding risk. Positioning favors USD selling against NZD. 3. Sentiment supports continuation, not exhaustion: NZD/USD sentiment: 42% bullish vs 58% bearish. Market is still leaning short NZD → upside move would be flow-supported, not overcrowded. 4. Rates & carry differential: NZD rate: 2.25% USD rate: 3.75%, but with growing cut expectations. Rate differential is already priced; forward-looking bias favors USD downside, keeping NZD/USD supported. 5. Cross-asset and risk context: Broader USD tone remains soft, while high-beta FX is stabilizing. NZD benefits in a mild risk-on / USD-off environment. Conclusion: With USD weakness (macro + COT), NZD supported positioning, bearish retail sentiment, and rate expectations shifting against USD, I’m looking for NZD/USD long entries, executed purely on technical confirmation. Bias: Long NZD/USD Execution: Wait for break pattern / structure confirmation
Long
by Trader_Geser
6
$ETSY has >11% FreeCashFlow Yield! Sometimes great returns are just staring us in the face and those returns seem risky since the price of an asset has been falling for a while we never know when the bottom is in. So, when we get a technical "trending up" signal like we are seeing in the monthly chart AND we have a great "free cash flow yield" for NYSE:ETSY with $708.97M in free cash flow on a $6.17B mkt cap, that gives us a lot of valuation support for this stock. The free cash flow has been steady at over $600M from 2020 to 2025. The lowest Monthly Closing MktCap was $4.57 billion, which means had we bought the low, the free cash flow yield would have been over 14%! NYSE:ETSY seems worth a closer look and a stop under the December low for a technical stop. Another stop-out method is to use 3 average true ranges (11-day or more) subtracted from your entry. Wishing you all a successful 2026! Tim 10:27AM EST Jan 7, 2026
NYSE:ETSYLong
by timwest
1
Bitcoin Pumps With Gold & S&P — But Is a Pullback Coming First?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started the new week with bullish momentum, pumping alongside Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) and the SPX500 Index( SP:SPX ). At the moment, Bitcoin is trading within a resistance zone($94,840-$93,020), close to the upper line of the ascending channel, while also moving around the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($94,970-$94,300). From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin is in the process of completing microwave 4 of the main wave C. My expectation is a minimum pullback toward the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($92,190-$91,610) and the nearby support zone($90,960-$90,090). From that support zone($90,960-$90,090), we can look for a potential renewed bullish move. Note: If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, a sudden and sharp drop in Bitcoin is possible. Note: If Bitcoin breaks and holds below the support zone($90,960-$90,090), we should be prepared for a deeper downside continuation. Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $87,140-$86,210 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $98,480-$96,970 CME Gap: $91,595-$90,530 CME Gap: $88,720-$88,120 First Target: $90,029 Second Target: $90,867 Stop Loss(SL): $96,223(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
31
EURUSD Liquidity Grab Above TrendlineQuick Summary EURUSD may break the bearish trendline to collect more liquidity, After that move a downside continuation is expected The main target is the liquidity void created yesterday after a strong bullish move of more than 80 pips without any mitigation Full Analysis There is a potential scenario on EURUSD where price may first break above the bearish trendline This move would likely serve as a liquidity grab rather than a true trend reversal Yesterday EURUSD rallied strongly for more than 80 pips without retesting any levels This impulsive move left a clear liquidity void below which often acts as a magnet for price By breaking the bearish trendline price can attract additional buy side liquidity before reversing lower, Once enough liquidity is collected the expectation is for EURUSD to resume the downside move The liquidity void left behind represents a strong downside objective and As long as price behavior supports this scenario the focus remains on a potential drop after the liquidity grab above the trendline
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
7
Selena | XAUUSD – M30 | Ascending Channel Under HTF ResistancePEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Despite bullish momentum inside the channel, price remains below the recent swing high and HTF resistance. This keeps the structure conditional, with continuation dependent on a confirmed break in market structure. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case (Conditional) – Strong reaction from channel support – M30 close above 4495 → Bullish BOS confirmed 🎯 Target 1: 4525 🎯 Target 2: 4550 (Range High / Liquidity) 🎯 Target 3: ATH expansion Despite bullish momentum inside the channel, price remains below the recent swing high and HTF resistance. This keeps the structure conditional, with continuation dependent on a confirmed break in market structure. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case (Conditional) – Strong reaction from channel support – M30 close above 4495 → Bullish BOS confirmed 🎯 Target 1: 4525 🎯 Target 2: 4550 (Range High / Liquidity) 🎯 Target 3: ATH expansion ❌ Bearish Case – Failure to hold channel support – Acceptance below 4420 🎯 Downside: 4380 → 4320 Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 4495 Support 🟢: 4420 Invalidation ❌: M30 close below channel ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. ❌ Bearish Case – Failure to hold channel support – Acceptance below 4420 🎯 Downside: 4380 → 4320 Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 4495 Support 🟢: 4420 Invalidation ❌: M30 close below channel ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold-Thoughts-by-Selena
2
Report 7/1/26Macro & Geopolitical Report The current tape is being pulled in two directions at once: a late-cycle disinflation and tariff-relief impulse that still supports U.S. risk assets, and a sharper geopolitical risk function that is increasingly concentrated in energy corridors and regime-stability stories. The immediate catalyst set is threefold. First, Iran’s protest wave has expanded into Tehran’s Grand Bazaar—an escalation symbolically tied to the country’s revolutionary history—with reports of at least 1,200 arrests and dozens of deaths, alongside visible pressure in the rial and repeated internet disruptions.  Second, the U.S. has conducted a kinetic operation in Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, triggering global condemnation and legal, war-powers, and regional-stability questions that now spill directly into energy policy and investment flows.  Third, a Russia-linked oil-tanker incident bound for Murmansk, with imagery circulated by RT and U.S. military messaging about standing against sanctioned vessels, has introduced a “boarding/escort” risk premium to North Atlantic energy logistics at the same time that Europe debates security guarantees and force posture for a potential Ukraine framework.  Market reaction and what it’s signaling Price action is already telling you how the market is weighting these risks: as “headline-hot but macro-containable,” at least for now. U.S. equities rose even as geopolitical volatility increased—Dow 49,462 (+0.99%) and S&P 500 6,944 (+0.62%)—a pattern consistent with investors seeing lower energy prices and a still-benign liquidity backdrop as offsets to geopolitics.   The haven bid expressed itself more cleanly in gold than in the dollar: gold settled around $4,482/oz (+1.02%) while crude fell to roughly $57.13/bbl (–2.04%), a “growth/oversupply wins, but buy convexity” mix rather than a classic war-panic spike in oil.   Rates stayed high enough to keep valuation discipline in place: the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury index yield is shown around 3.90%, and long Treasurys around 4.82%, which implies geopolitics is not yet forcing a dramatic flight-to-duration.  In FX, the dollar’s posture is best described as “firm but not squeezing.” USDJPY was around 156.68, and the WSJ Dollar Index near 96.00, while dollar index futures were around 98.32—levels consistent with modest safe-haven demand and carry preference rather than a disorderly deleveraging.  Geopolitics: the three stress points and why they matter macro-wise Iran is the most immediate regime-stability variable. The reported collapse in the rial (around 1.47 million per USD in the reporting) and the spread of unrest across dozens of cities raise the probability of policy lurches—subsidy adjustments, sharper capital controls, heavier internet shutdowns—that typically worsen near-term inflation and depress real activity. The U.S. rhetorical posture (“locked and loaded,” in the reporting) increases the odds that Tehran frames the unrest as externally driven, which historically reduces the chance of negotiated off-ramps and increases the chance of miscalculation in the Gulf.  Venezuela is the bigger structural shock because it changes the rules of the game for sovereign risk, extraterritorial enforcement, and energy asset governance. A raid that removes a sitting leader creates a precedent that will be priced into LATAM political risk premia and, importantly, into the discount rates applied to long-dated upstream projects and cross-border JV structures. The reported U.S. rationale set—democracy framing plus oil-access/“seized barrels” logic—also makes energy policy explicitly geopolitical rather than market-stabilization oriented.  The tanker incident adds the most “market-microstructure” risk: if investors begin to believe that interdictions, escorts, or insurance invalidations will broaden from a narrow set of sanctioned hulls to a larger “shadow fleet” complex, you can get localized spikes in freight rates and refinery feedstock differentials even while outright crude stays capped by oversupply. The RT-circulated video element matters because it can harden domestic narratives on both sides and narrow diplomatic flexibility.  Macro and fiscal implications: disinflation tailwinds vs. geopolitical tax On the macro side, the U.S. still appears to be operating in a late-cycle disinflation corridor: CPI is shown around 2.7% YoY and core around 2.6% YoY in the referenced rate table, with a prime rate near 6.75% and effective fed funds around 3.64%—a configuration that keeps financial conditions restrictive enough to deter inflation re-acceleration, while still allowing risk assets to “look through” geopolitics as long as oil stays sub-$60.   The tariff story reinforces this: delaying tariff hikes on major consumer categories like furniture acts as an anti-inflation valve (lower pass-through risk, less goods-inflation re-pricing), which is exactly why equities can rally even as headlines worsen.  But geopolitics becomes a quasi-fiscal tax when it forces governments into guarantees, deployments, and insurance backstops. Europe’s movement toward more explicit Ukraine security guarantees—reported as involving troop commitments and “military hubs” contingent on a peace deal—would, if institutionalized, raise long-term defense capex and potentially steepen parts of the European curve, even if it stabilizes the geopolitical risk premium over time.  Strategic forecast: the next 4–12 weeks Base case: volatility stays high, but the macro regime remains “oil-down, gold-bid, equities resilient.” The reason is simple: crude is behaving like a supply/strategy asset, not a scarcity asset. WSJ commodity data show crude down sharply over the past year even as gold is up strongly, reinforcing the idea that energy is capped by supply growth and demand moderation, while gold is being bid as a hedge against regime-shift and policy error.  Risk case: the market reprices from “contained” to “contagious” if one of three things happens: a Gulf shipping disruption linked to Iran; a broader sanctions-enforcement campaign that materially impairs flows (insurance, ports, servicing); or evidence that the Venezuela operation triggers sustained regional instability (sabotage, production interruptions, or retaliatory measures). Under that regime, oil can decouple upward even if the medium-term balance is loose, because risk premia dominate fundamentals in the short run. Upside case: rapid political de-escalation paired with continued tariff restraint would push the market toward a softer-landing narrative—helping cyclicals and reducing the need for defensive hedges—while keeping the dollar from tightening global financial conditions. Asset impact breakdown Gold (XAUUSD) is being used as the cleanest hedge against “policy regime surprise.” With gold settling around $4,482/oz (+1.02%), the signal is that investors are buying protection even while they remain long risk elsewhere.   If tanker enforcement escalates or Iran risks broaden, gold typically benefits from convexity demand, especially when real rates don’t collapse. S&P 500 and Dow are still trading the “lower energy + tariff relief + stable rates” channel: S&P 6,944 (+0.62%) and Dow 49,462 (+0.99%) show dip-buying remains intact.   The vulnerability is not “fear” but “earnings revision + multiple compression” if rates back up or if oil shocks corporate margins. USDJPY is the most sensitive barometer of risk sentiment versus rate differentials. At ~156.68 per dollar, the pair suggests yen strength hasn’t become the market’s primary hedge yet; that changes if geopolitics forces a broader risk-off deleveraging or if U.S. yields fall materially.  DXY / dollar complex looks supported but not disorderly. With dollar index futures around 98.32 and the WSJ Dollar Index around 96.00, the market is not pricing an acute global dollar shortage—important, because dollar scarcity is what usually turns geopolitical events into financial accidents.  Crude oil is capped by fundamentals but vulnerable to microstructure shocks. The settle near $57.13 (–2.04%) tells you the market is still emphasizing oversupply and demand moderation.   The risk is that enforcement/insurance dynamics create short bursts higher even if the 3–6 month balance remains soft. Risks and opportunities The key risk is policy entanglement: once energy access, sanctions enforcement, and regime change become openly linked, the probability of tit-for-tat increases—and markets can shift from pricing “events” to pricing “systems.” Venezuela is the clearest example because it can catalyze legal challenges, alliance friction, and a repricing of sovereign immunity assumptions.  The second risk is “shadow-fleet spillover,” where enforcement actions create an insurance/freight shock that hits refined products even if headline crude stays low.   The third is Iran: persistent unrest plus currency stress can increase regional security incidents, which is the fastest path from political story to oil story.  The opportunity set follows the same map. If crude remains capped, consumer-linked and rate-sensitive equities keep their tailwind, while gold and selective volatility structures remain attractive as cheap “regime insurance” given the breadth of tail risks already visible in headlines.   If Europe’s security guarantees become credible and funded, parts of the European defense/industrial complex gain multi-year visibility, though this comes with rate-and-fiscal tradeoffs.  In energy, low outright prices combined with higher enforcement risk favors relative-value trades (quality differentials, shipping, insurance/freight exposures) rather than a simple long-oil thesis.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
1
USDJPY (JPYUSD) Forecast TodayUSDJPY (JPYUSD) Forecast Today – H1 Range Structure, Liquidity Targeting in Focus Market Overview USDJPY (JPYUSD chart format) is currently trading in a neutral-to-corrective structure on the H1 timeframe after completing a strong bearish leg followed by a technical rebound. Price is now consolidating below a major supply zone, while holding above a recently defended demand area. This market condition favors range trading and liquidity-based setups, rather than aggressive trend-following positions. Market Structure & Price Action Analysis The prior bearish sequence printed multiple BOS (Break of Structure) signals, confirming downside dominance earlier. Recent CHoCH (Change of Character) near the lows indicates bearish momentum has weakened. Price is now forming compressed candles and equal highs/lows, suggesting accumulation before the next directional move. Current behavior reflects a mid-range equilibrium, where liquidity above and below becomes the primary target. EMA Structure Analysis (20 / 50 / 100 / 200) Price is currently interacting with the EMA 20 and EMA 50, showing short-term indecision. EMA 100 and EMA 200 remain above price, acting as dynamic resistance. EMA compression confirms low momentum and balance, often preceding expansion. Bias remains neutral until price clearly escapes the EMA cluster with volume. Key Liquidity Zones & Levels Resistance / Supply Zones 0.006410 – 0.006430: Strong high liquidity zone and higher-timeframe supply This area is likely to attract sell-side reaction if reached Support / Demand Zones 0.006355 – 0.006345: Weak low liquidity pool Sweep of this zone may trigger short-term bullish reaction Intraday Trading Scenarios Scenario 1: Buy from Demand (Liquidity Sweep Play) Buy Zone: 0.006355 – 0.006345 Stop Loss: Below 0.006335 Targets: TP1: 0.006385 TP2: 0.006410 TP3: 0.006425 Scenario 2: Sell from Supply (Preferred if Tapped) Sell Zone: 0.006410 – 0.006430 Stop Loss: Above 0.006440 Targets: TP1: 0.006385 TP2: 0.006360 Market Bias for Today Intraday Bias: Neutral / Range-bound Bullish case valid only after a confirmed H1 close above 0.006430 Bearish continuation favored if price rejects supply with bearish structure confirmation Conclusion USDJPY is currently trading in a liquidity-driven range, defined by clear weak lows and strong highs. The presence of EMA compression, CHoCH signals, and equal-level formations suggests the next move will likely be driven by a liquidity sweep rather than trend continuation.
by Henrybillion
2
XAUUSD (H1) – Bullish channel intact, short pullback...Market context On January 7, spot gold and silver both saw short-term selling pressure. Spot gold slipped toward 4450–4455 USD/oz after a recent rally. Spot silver dropped below 79 USD, reflecting broader short-term profit-taking across precious metals. This pullback looks technical and corrective, rather than a reversal of the broader bullish trend. The macro backdrop remains supportive: geopolitical risks, long-term central bank demand, and expectations of easier monetary policy continue to underpin precious metals. Technical view – H1 (Lana’s perspective) Price is still respecting a rising price channel, showing healthy trend structure despite the current retracement. Key observations from the chart: The ascending channel remains valid; higher highs and higher lows are intact. Price has reacted from the upper half of the channel, triggering short-term selling into sell-side liquidity. The dotted midline and channel support are acting as dynamic reaction zones. The recent drop appears to be a liquidity sweep / correction, not a breakdown. This kind of pullback is common after strong impulsive legs and often provides better positioning for trend continuation. Key levels to watch Sell-side reaction (short-term pressure) Near the channel midline and upper resistance, price may remain choppy. Expect volatility while sell-side liquidity is being absorbed. Buy-side interest zones 4458 – 4463: First reaction zone inside the channel. 4428 – 4400: Stronger support aligned with channel base and prior structure. Acceptance above these zones favors bullish continuation. Fundamental angle Short-term weakness in gold and silver is driven mainly by profit-taking after recent highs. Broader fundamentals remain constructive: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty Strong central bank demand USD valuation and global risk sentiment These factors suggest that dips are more likely to be corrective opportunities, not trend-ending signals. Lana’s trading mindset 💛 Avoid chasing price during pullbacks. Respect the channel structure and wait for price to come into value. Look for clear confirmation at support zones before engaging. As long as the channel holds, the bullish bias remains valid. This analysis reflects a personal technical view for educational purposes only. Always manage risk carefully.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
1
GBPUSD Trading Set up [4H] Macro Outlook: GBP/USD’s macro backdrop is mixed. Diverging monetary expectations with markets pricing more dovish Fed policy and a cautious Bank of England continue to influence flows into sterling and the dollar. Persistent UK economic headwinds, such as slower growth and elevated unemployment forecasts, contrast with periodic US dollar strength on safe-haven demand and resilient data. Technicals (4H): On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD remains in a defined uptrend, respecting an ascending channel and holding above the rising 50-period EMA. Price recently cleared near-term resistance and is consolidating above key support around the 50 EMA/lower channel band, while RSI stays above 50, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Strategy: The tactical approach is to wait for a pullback to the 50 EMA or lower channel boundary before initiating longs, aligning entry with trend support. Once price shows confirmation of a bounce, target recent swing highs and the upper channel trend line. Keep strategy flexible around macro catalysts like major PMI, inflation, or central-bank events that could accelerate moves. Risk Management: Place stop-losses just below the lower channel boundary and 50 EMA to limit downside risk if the uptrend fails. Adjust position size relative to volatility around scheduled economic data, and consider partial profit taking at key resistance levels to protect gains while allowing for trend continuation.
Long
by SmiertSpionam
1
XAUUSD (H2) – Liam View: Buy the liquidity pullback, re-buy...XAUUSD (H2) – Liam View: Buy the liquidity pullback, re-buy at the 0.618 zone 1) Macro snapshot (Venezuela headlines = faster repricing) Since Maduro was reportedly detained, Venezuela’s market has reacted aggressively — your note highlights the IBC index surging +74.71% in just two sessions and +156% over 30 days, showing a rapid “repricing” of political risk and expectations. For gold, this kind of backdrop usually means bigger swings + liquidity sweeps: the market can flip between risk-on bursts and renewed safe-haven demand. ➡️ So the best play today is still level-based execution, not chasing candles. 2) Chart read (H2) – Uptrend intact, but it needs a clean pullback From your H2 chart: The broader structure is still bullish, but price is in a short-term pullback after the recent push up. The key level is the 0.618 Buy Zone: 4414–4417 — a classic re-entry area (liquidity + fib confluence). Above, we have Buyside Liquidity near the recent highs — that’s the magnet if buyers regain control. 3) Trade plan (clear Entry / SL / TP) ✅ Scenario A (priority): BUY the 0.618 pullback Buy zone: 4414 – 4417 Stop loss (SL): below 4406 (or safer: below the most recent H2 swing low) Take profit (TP): TP1: 4460–4470 (recent rebound high area) TP2: sweep Buyside Liquidity (above the highs) TP3: if the breakout holds, continue towards the upper resistance band on your chart Logic: In a bullish structure, the 0.618 pullback is often the cleanest “re-buy” entry — especially when headlines trigger sharp dips and fast rebounds. ✅ Scenario B: Shallow pullback → buy only with confirmation If price doesn’t reach 4414–4417 and only dips lightly: Wait for a lower-TF confirmation (M15/H1 shift / rejection) Take a smaller continuation buy and aim for a quick 8–12$ move ⚠️ Scenario C (scalp only): SELL after a buyside sweep and rejection If price runs the highs (buyside liquidity sweep) and then prints a strong rejection: You can sell scalp back into 4460–4445 SL: above the sweep high Not a long-term bearish call while the rising structure is still valid. 4) Key note (headline week) Venezuela headlines can keep volatility elevated, so: Avoid entering mid-candle Use zones + confirmation Reduce size if spreads widen If I had to pick one clean trade today: wait for the 0.618 buy zone (4414–4417), then buy for a push into buyside liquidity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
1
EURUSD Forecast TodayEURUSD Forecast Today – H1 Trend Reversal or Bullish Correction? Market Overview EURUSD is currently trading in a short-term corrective phase after a strong bearish impulse. Price action on the H1 timeframe shows signs of structural stabilization, with buyers attempting to defend the recent swing low while price consolidates below a key resistance cluster. The current market environment favors patient long setups from support, rather than aggressive chasing at resistance. Price Action & Trendline Analysis The previous bearish trendline has been broken, indicating bearish momentum has weakened. However, price failed to sustain above the recent swing high, suggesting the market is now in a range-to-recovery phase, not a full bullish reversal yet. The projected path highlights a higher-low structure, which is critical for confirming bullish continuation. EMA Structure Analysis (20 / 50 / 100 / 200) Price is currently trading below EMA 100 and EMA 200, which remain key dynamic resistance levels. Short-term EMAs (20 & 50) are flattening, showing loss of bearish momentum. A clean bullish confirmation requires: Sustained price action above EMA 50 Followed by a retest and hold above the EMA cluster EMA structure currently suggests neutral to mildly bullish corrective bias. Key Support and Resistance Levels Major Support Zones 1.1680 – 1.1665: Strong intraday demand zone and recent swing low 1.1650: Structural invalidation level Key Resistance Zones 1.1735 – 1.1745: EMA 100 + prior supply zone 1.1760 – 1.1770: Major H1 resistance and liquidity zone Fibonacci Confluence Fibonacci retracement of the recent bearish leg shows: 38.2% – 50% retracement aligns with the 1.1735 – 1.1750 resistance area This zone is critical to determine whether price transitions into a bullish continuation or gets rejected into range consolidation. Intraday Trading Scenarios Scenario 1: Buy Pullback (Preferred Setup) Entry Zone: 1.1680 – 1.1700 Stop Loss: Below 1.1650 Targets: TP1: 1.1735 TP2: 1.1760 TP3: 1.1790 Scenario 2: Breakout Confirmation Buy only after a strong H1 close above 1.1760 Retest confirmation preferred Upside target: 1.1800 – 1.1820 Market Bias for Today Intraday Bias: Neutral → Bullish (conditional) Bullish scenario valid while price holds above 1.1665 Bearish risk returns if price breaks and holds below 1.1650 Conclusion EURUSD is transitioning from a bearish impulse into a corrective recovery phase. The combination of trendline break, EMA compression, and higher-low attempts suggests upside potential, but confirmation is required at resistance.
by Henrybillion
2