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Fundamental Analysis

Bank of Canada lowers rates, Canadian dollar edges upwardsThe Canadian dollar has posted small gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3762, up 0.17% on the day. There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which lowered its policy rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, its lowest level since July 2022. This was the first time the Bank of Canada lowered rates since March, as it was forced to respond to signs of weakness in the economy and lower inflation. The rate statement said that a rate cut was justified, given that the economy had weakened and there was less upside risk to inflation. The US tariffs were expected to have a further dampening effect on economic activity. The statement made three references to the uncertainty of the economic outlook, which has required the BoC to act cautiously. At a follow-up press conference, Governor Macklem defended the rate cut due to a weaker labor market and less upside pressure on underlying inflation. What was missing from the rate statement and press conference was any forward guidance about future rate cuts, as the central bank doesn't want to be pushed into any corners with regard to future decisions. If inflation risks continue to fade, the BoC could deliver one or even two rate cuts before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at today's meeting, barring a monumental surprise. The expected rate cut would be the Fed's first since December 2024. With the rate decision virtually a given, investors will be looking for some clues as to whether the Fed is looking at further rates cuts before the end of the year. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3752. Above, there is resistance at 1.3770 There is support at 1.3721 and 1.3703
by OANDA
SUI Game Plan - Suinetwork📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains strongly bullish as the FED is expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut, with speculation building for a possible 0.5% cut in September. Monetary policy shifts are being driven by both inflation trends and weakening labor market data. The latest August and September job reports were soft, signaling that the economy is cooling rapidly. This environment continues to fuel expectations for a major bullish run in the weeks ahead. 📈 Technical Analysis Price is on HTF bullish trend so we will be looking only long setups. Price ran HTF liquidity and closed above then broke the market on daily-weekly timeframe, creating the Daily Demand Zone. Moreover, price broke the bearish trendline and closed above, giving strong upward momentum. Now price is retracing back into the Daily Demand Zone. 📌 Game Plan 1-Price to hit back to Daily Demand Zone 2-Price to hit possibly 0.75 max discount range zone. If not, I’ll still enter with LTF confirmation. 🎯 Setup Trigger 4H break of structure after hitting 3.36$ level. I won’t enter unless I see the 4H BOS. 📋 Trade Management Stoploss: Below 4H swing low responsible for BOS Targets: TP1: 3.88$ TP2: 4.17$ TP3: 4.44$ 💬 Like, follow, and comment if you find this setup valuable! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
2
BTCUSD – Key Levels & Outlook Bitcoin trades near $115,445 as mBitcoin trades near $115,445 as markets weigh the upcoming FOMC rate decision that could spark broad risk-asset moves. Key Levels Resistance (1H): $115,668 – 116,318. A clean breakout above this zone could open the door to $116,600+. Intermediate Zone: $115,532 – 115,477 around the 30m FVG (fair value gap). Support (1H): $115,100, with deeper bids around $114,744 – 114,376 and a final line near $114,134. Scenarios Bullish: A dovish Fed or rate-cut surprise could lift BTC through the 1H resistance toward $116,600–117,000. Bearish: If the Fed stays hawkish or signals fewer cuts, watch for a slide toward $115,100 and potentially $114,700. Fundamentals The FOMC decision (8 pm UTC-2) is pivotal. A rate cut would generally weaken USD liquidity costs and may boost crypto demand. Risk sentiment is key—BTC often mirrors equity volatility during major Fed events. ⚠️ Plan: Expect heightened volatility around the announcement; confirmation of direction likely comes after the Fed press conference. This is market commentary, not financial advice. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:BTCUSD
by MrYounity
XLU Long trading opportunity(swing-trading) 1I expect a swing of about $4-$6 all the way up to $85+- within 2-5 months. I am risking money in the form of a short put option to expire the 19'th of September (will be followed by a covered call opened if assigned). My entry price is $82 This is a buy and hold trade in a lower risk lower volatility instrument, you might have to hold for 6+- months before it reaches the target, XLU rises slowly but rarely goes down 20%+ for no big reason (there has to be underlying market crash or severe macro negative events) so I don't see a lot of downside remaining, I do think it can go lower than $80 but that would then be 10% down from its peak, but at max I would place it around 15% down from its peak before it starts going up. Also historically lower interest rates do benefit the utilities sector.
AMEX:XLULong
by ricomister
Oxymoronically pounding the table here for CALMThere are a lot of reasons I like the trade I entered into yesterday at the close here. I'll start with some reasons I'd like CALM regardless of my trading style. I think everyone can agree we are in an overvalued market right now. That inherently creates risk with any stock you buy right now. Not saying we are gonna go down, but the more overvalued the market gets, the greater the risk that creates. CALM has several things going for it in that regard. 1--it has a TTM P/E of 4.12. Not 41.2 - FOUR!!! This is good even for a value stock. 2--their current yield is 8.11%. Give your head a second to wrap itself around that one - this stock has a yield that is twice its P/E. To put that in perspective, NVDA has a P/E of 50. If its yield were 2x its P/E, it would be paying a 100% dividend. This is not really an anomaly, either. It has always been a high dividend stock. 3--in the event inflation picks up again, foods are an area where costs can be passed through to customers better than in other areas. Eggs will still be eaten, even if they cost more. We've already proven that once. People will complain, but they still buy them. Now for the part that really intrigued me here. 18-2 on trade signals in 2025 with an average gain of 3.5% and an average holding period of 9 days (including that 109 day marathon). That includes the two losing trades recently, and works out to a gain of .39% per day held. Note: trade returns on the chart are basis points (.01% per bp) Those are beyond tech stock level daily returns on a stock that has been flat overall on the year, that sells something Americans bought 108 BILLION of last year (while griping about prices) that has a low P/E and if the trade goes sideways, pays me 2% a quarter to hold onto. That's .03% per day just to hold it, not including any gain on the trade itself. The average historical daily gain of SPY is around .04%, for comparison. Why is this stock not being talked about? I don't know and I don't care, but I went long at yesterday's close at 103.01 and it's trading just below that as I put the finishing touches on this post. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NASDAQ:CALMLong
by redwingcoach
2
Recessions usually follow interest rate cutsFrom a historical perspective, it looks like recessions follow periods after the feds rate is cut. Periods of technical recessions, where the technical definition is two negative GDP quarters): Jan 1974 – Jun 1974 (Q1 & Q2 ’74) Jan 1975 – Jun 1975 (Q1 & Q2 ’75) Jan 1980 – Jun 1980 (Q1 & Q2 ’80) Jul 1981 – Dec 1981 (Q3 & Q4 ’81) Jul 1990 – Dec 1990 (Q3 & Q4 ’90) Jan 2001 – Jun 2001 (Q1 & Q2 ’01) Jul 2008 – Dec 2008 (Q3 & Q4 ’08) Jan 2020 – Jun 2020 (Q1 & Q2 ’20) Also with the stock market at ATHs it will be very interesting to see what occurs post rate cuts that are forecasted for the remainder of 2025, assets would like be super charged for a bullish tear.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by primetimesosa
LiamTrading – XAUUSD Market points to Wave 4LiamTrading – XAUUSD Outlook Sharing my personal view on the next potential move for gold. From the current chart structure, the wave pattern suggests XAUUSD is likely in Wave 4. The correction began yesterday after price touched the 3,700 round number – a key resistance area that also aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This zone typically attracts significant liquidity, and the subsequent pullback adds weight to the view that Wave 4 has been triggered. At present, the main support level to monitor is 3,675. A break below this level could see the corrective move complete around 3,656. On the H1 timeframe, RSI has dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. In my opinion, while the market trades in this area, short positions remain favourable, though patience is required until clearer confluence signals emerge. Trading plan (short-term focus): Sell 3685–3687, SL 3693, TP 3670 – 3656 Buy 3656–3654, SL 3648, TP 3675 – 3690 – 3702 – 3721 – 3740 I’ll continue to share further updates if price action shows significant changes. Wishing everyone good trading and success in the markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – FOMC Rate-Cut Watch (Key Levels & Outlook)Gold is holding around $3,686 as traders brace for the FOMC decision at 8 pm (UTC-2). Markets are increasingly pricing a potential rate cut, which would typically weaken the USD and support gold. Key Levels Upside Resistance: • $3,693–3,695 – first breakout zone • $3,703 – critical resistance, sustained close above opens door to $3,710+ Immediate Support: • $3,682 / 3,678 – intraday demand • $3,676–3,675 – next strong bid area • $3,674 – last major floor before deeper pullback Scenarios Bullish: A dovish Fed or an actual rate cut could spark a rally through $3,695, targeting $3,703 and potentially $3,710–3,720. Bearish: A hawkish surprise or no cut may send price back toward $3,678, with deeper support near $3,674. Fundamentals Rate Cut Probability: Markets are eyeing slowing U.S. labor data and softer inflation as justification for a 25 bps cut. USD & Yields: Lower yields would typically push the dollar lower and gold higher. Risk Events: Watch Fed press conference language for hints of further easing. ⚠️ Trading Plan: Wait for the FOMC announcement before committing. Breakout above $3,695 favors longs; rejection could set up a quick move back to $3,676. This is market commentary, not financial advice—manage risk carefully around high-volatility events. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by MrYounity
Hesai Group (HSAI) – LiDAR Leader Gearing Up for a Global RunHesai NASDAQ:HSAI is a dominant force in automotive LiDAR, holding a 33% global market share. With a strong portfolio of next-gen sensors, the company is pushing boundaries in autonomous driving, robotics, and industrial automation. 🔹 Catalyst: Upcoming Hong Kong IPO ($475M target) adds global visibility, improves liquidity, and diversifies funding amid U.S.–China tensions. 🔹 Tech Edge: Showcased ETX and FTX models at IAA Mobility 2025 – leading in range, resolution, and solid-state design for L3/L4 autonomy. 🔹 Growth Path: Backed by OEM & Tier-1 partnerships, expanding globally with durable revenue streams. 💡 Bullish above $24.50–$25.00 🎯 Target zone: $40.00–$42.00 📊 Watching volume and price action closely into the IPO news cycle. 🧠 Tech + geopolitical tailwinds + market leadership = strong breakout potential. #HSAI #LiDAR #AutonomousDriving #IPO #TechStocks
NASDAQ:HSAILong
by Richtv_official
Compression Below Resistance: Prepare for Post-FOMC BTC Plays__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is trapped in a volatility compression zone, trading just below key resistance and awaiting the high-stakes FOMC catalyst. The broader context shows contained flows and limited directional momentum: the market is on standby. Momentum: Short-term momentum is neutral to slightly bearish 📉, with price tightly range-bound and no strong buying impulse. All eyes on the macro trigger. Key levels: — Resistances (clustered):  • 116,800–116,814 (240 Pivot High, dominant multi-TF resistance)  • 124,277 (ATH/Daily Pivot High) — Supports :  • 114,800–114,809 (240 Pivot, primary short-term support)  • 113,421 (720 Pivot)  • 111,965 (Weekly Pivot High) Volumes: Volumes are normal across all timeframes, with only a small bump on short-term down moves (30m/15m) — no signs of extreme positioning. Multi-timeframe signals: Medium-term trend remains bullish (MTFTI "Strong Up" on daily/12H), but short-term timeframes (1H–4H–12H) show downward momentum and lack of a decisive volume trigger. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral to sell bias , confirming the absence of strong risk-on flows and supporting a cautious tactical approach. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant tone is cautious sideways compression — only act on clear breakout or rejection signals at range extremes. Global bias: Short-term neutral to bearish ; invalidated by a clear reclaim and hold above 116,814. Opportunities:  • Buy “breakout” only if price clearly breaks and sustains >116,814 with strong volume (first target 117,300, then 118,400+); invalidate below 114,809.  • Sell on firm break and hold <114,809, adding size if volume rises, targeting 114,000–113,000; invalidate on swift rebound >115,700. Risk zones / invalidations:  • Reclaim and hold >116,814 (with volume) invalidates short bias.  • Breakdown and hold <114,809 across several TFs activates downside. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):  • Imminent FOMC decision — options market, volatility compression, and max defensive positioning are the primary drivers.  • ETF flows cooling, Bitcoin dominance declining, risk rotations likely post-FOMC — no strong risk-on evidence yet.  • UK/EU inflation and dovish central banks are background noise, not immediate BTC movers. Action plan:  • on breakout or clean rejection of technical pivots (116,814/114,809).  • below indicated risk line.  • 117,300, 118,400+ in long; 114,000, 113,000 in short.  • R/R ~1.8–2; max initial exposure 12.5%, only scale in with confirmed multi-TF momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ All timeframes show a tense coil: no timeframe provides a clear trend for now, reinforcing a "wait and see" approach. 1D/12H: Medium-term uptrend filter persists (MTFTI “Strong Up”), but near-term momentum repeatedly stalls below 116,814–116,800, with no volume breakthrough. 6H/4H/2H/1H: Tightly coiled range, anchored at 114,809; loss would open up liquidity tests down to 113,421–114,000. 30m/15m: Volume picks up on short-term declines; only a fleeting “risk-on” flash on 15m (no follow-through to higher TFs). Major divergences: Isolated 6H “Strong Buy” on equity isn’t confirmed at the market level, making any bounce fragile. 15m “risk-on” flashes lack multi-TF confirmation. Key invalidation/pivot levels are well aligned across TFs — critical for reactivity when the move comes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain forces both encourage patience, with the FOMC outcome set to trigger the next major move. Macro events:  • in focus, strong rate cut expectations and options market tension dominate — clear primary driver.  • BoC goes dovish, UK/EU inflation tensions, but no direct “risk-on” signals across global macro.  • ETF flows tepid, specific post-FOMC asset rotation will be key. Bitcoin analysis:  • Bitcoin consolidates ~6.8% below ATH, inside technical “cloud” — price activity is all about risk management (options, ETF).  • On-chain support ~110k–114k solid, resistance 115.8k–116.8k, tightly aligned with technical levels. On-chain data:  • ETF inflows dormant, derivatives lead price action, no clear sign of euphoria or capitulation; on-chain support >108k remains robust.  • Overall attitude is defensive, “wait for the catalyst” mode. Expected impact:  • The FOMC’s reaction will drive the technical breakout or breakdown; only a clear confirmation will unlock decisive follow-through beyond the current coil. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin remains trapped in a compression phase under key resistance, on high alert going into the FOMC. The overall trend is short-term neutral to bearish, with all bullish setups hinged on a confirmed pivot breakout above 116,814. The highest-conviction play is to let the FOMC be the trigger: position with the move, not before. Macro dominance means no reason to anticipate a risk-on rotation until confirmation. Keep your edge: wait for multi-TF signals and volume confluence, and manage exposure tightly — false breakouts and volatility traps are the enemy heading into this macro event!
by Ox_kali
GIS Ascending Broadening Wedge SetupGIS has a strong wedge setup here. Looking at previous trends, price has bounced off the Lower Trendline twice in the past. GIS could be due for yet another bounce off the Lower Trendline. I will watch around that $48-$40 range for a possible breakout, especially with earnings coming up. Based on the chart patterns, I would be bearish if price falls below that $37 range. Whereas, anything above that $56 we’re probably in for a decent price increase. Please leave your comments/feedback below
NYSE:GISLong
by Stoxor
Agree Realty | ADC | Long at $72.37Agree Realty NYSE:ADC Summary: A "boring" REIT with a 4.2% dividend, ~68% investment-grade tenants, high occupancy (~99%), average lease terms of 10+ years, which include major tenants Walmart (top tenant), Dollar General, Tractor Supply, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, TJ Maxx, O'Reilly Auto Parts, CVS, Kroger, Lowe's, Hobby Lobby, Burlington, Sherwin-Williams, Sunbelt Rentals, Wawa, Home Depot.... Technical Analysis: Cup and handle formation may be forming off the recent double bottom (bullish). Two open price gaps remain on the daily chart since 2020 (down near $59) - chance these may get closed if the market turns in the near-term. However, REITs average +30% returns within 16 months post-Fed rate cuts, so patience may benefit investors here. Follow the Money : Insiders buying . Company Financial Health: Strong. $2.3B liquidity, no material debt maturities until 2028, and investment-grade balance sheet (A- rating from Fitch). Debt-to-assets ~40%, covered by stable net-lease rents. Macro risks (e.g., tenant bankruptcies like At Home, consumer slowdown) exist but are mitigated by diversification. Altman Z-Score suggests low distress and no near-term catalysts for insolvency. Earnings and Revenue Growth: ~4% between 2025 and 2027 (slow growth, but good/steady for a REIT). Thus, at $72.37, NYSE:ADC is in a personal buy zone for a likely move up given the high probability of lower interest rates in the future. A near-term risk of a drop to $59 could occur, but REITs often move higher within 1-2 years after interest rates cuts. It's a solid company financially with a good dividend. Targets into 2028: $80.00 (+10.5%) $90.00 (+24.3%)
NYSE:ADCLong
by WorthlessViews
Ethereum Trade Setup📲 NFX Trade Alert – Swing Setup 💹 Instrument: Ethereum COINBASE:ETHUSD 🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Buy at Market 📍 Entry: $4,690 ⛔ Stop Loss: $4,624 (tight stop placed just below the S/R breakout level) ✅ Target Profit: $5,050 📊 Trade Setup Analysis – BINANCE:ETHUSD MARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM Ethereum showed no weakness over the weekend, breaking decisively above the $4,650 resistance and extending toward $4,750. Price has since retested $4,650(23.6% Trend Fib), with strong rejection confirming this former resistance is now acting as solid support. We’re applying a tight stop loss at $4,624, just below the breakout level, to minimize risk while maintaining bullish exposure. With this breakout confirmed, there’s no major resistance until the previous ATH around $4,950. The path remains open for continuation higher. ⚖️ Risk management remains key - even strong, high-probability setups demand discipline and protection. 💚
Long
by niclaxfx
CSCO : Bullish Harmonic Pattern In a Bullish TrendCSCO: Bullish Harmonic Pattern In a Bullish Trend Cisco (CSCO) has formed a Bullish Harmonic Pattern In a Bullish Trend, suggesting a potential bullish setup if the support near 66.10 holds. If buyers step in, the price could start a recovery with upside targets at: $68.00 $69.00 $70.00 – major target and strong resistance zone As long as CSCO stays above the recent low around 66.10, the bullish scenario remains valid. A break below this level would invalidate the pattern and could lead to further downside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, and the interest rate forecast could provide a better idea of ​​the details ahead. This could further boost the price. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NASDAQ:CSCOLong
by KlejdiCuni
1
OIL Trade Insights📲 NFX TRADE ALERT 📊 TRADE TYPE: SWING TRADE ♻ PAIR: GBEBROKERS:USOIL ⬇️ SELL AT MARKET 📝 ORDER TYPE: MARKET ORDER 👨🏻‍💻 ENTRY : $64.45 ⭕️ SL: 65.450 ✅ TP: $62.00 📝 REASONS FOR TRADE: H1 Confirmation of Price Rejection at Resistance - SR Holds📈 Multiple reversal candles spotted on H4 around supply zone, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Pay close attention to US Inventory report later the morning. I expect report to be bearish for oil given the high supply as seen last week.
GBEBROKERS:USOILShort
by niclaxfx
1
Monthly Crypto Analysis: Fantom (FTM/USD) – Issue 90 The analyst believes that the price of Fantom(sonic) will decrease within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend. ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame. Analyzed by: Ehsan Pedram (MOONRISETA)
CRYPTO:FTMUSDShort
by MoonriseTA